20 Second Timeout

2022-23 NBA Playoff Predictions

The final composition of the 2023 NBA playoff field was not determined until the NBA completed its Play-In Tournament. The Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat claimed the final two playoff spots in the East, while the L.A. Lakers and the Minnesota Timberwolves earned the final two playoff spots in the West; I correctly picked one of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Miami).

Before we look ahead to the playoffs, here is a recap of some of the key events of the 2022-2023 NBA season. 

For the third year in a row, LeBron James and Anthony Davis failed to lead the L.A. Lakers to one of the top six seeds in the Western Conference. In 2021, the Lakers only reached the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament, while in 2022 the Lakers failed to even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. In 2023, James put up impressive individual numbers (28.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 6.8 apg), and he broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career regular season scoring record, but the Lakers were 30-25 when he played, which projects to just under 45 wins over an 82 game season: the point is that even with James on the court the Lakers did not look like a championship caliber team. The Lakers went 13-14 when James did not play, which projects to nearly 40 wins over an 82 game season. Thus, in the 2023 season James was worth about five "extra" wins, which is not the impact that one would expect from an MVP caliber player averaging nearly 30 ppg; historically, an MVP caliber player is worth at least 15 "extra" wins. 

Perhaps one reason that James' gaudy numbers did not correlate with team success is that James may be better than any other great player at stat padding. While it is true that James has proven capable of posting great individual numbers that correlate with team success--that is why he has won four championships--it is also true that he has an uncanny ability to post superficially impressive numbers that do not correlate with team success, and the 2023 season is a prime example of that. The Lakers' late season success in a small sample size of games--including games against teams that were not at full strength for a variety of reasons--had more to do with Anthony Davis being healthy/engaged and the Lakers playing better defense than it did with James' statistics.

Perhaps the biggest story in the Eastern Conference was the implosion (and late season stabilization) of the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets started the season 2-5 before parting ways with Coach Steve Nash. Then, the Nets suspended Kyrie Irving for his unrepentant antisemitism. On November 25, 2022, the Nets had a 9-11 record and seemed to be going nowhere fast--but then the Nets won 18 of their next 20 games to move up to second place in the Eastern Conference, just one game behind the 2022 Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics. However, Irving felt insulted by the team's reluctance to sign him to a multi-year maximum contract, so he requested a trade. The Nets complied, shipping Irving and Markieff Morris to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks. In the wake of Irving's departure, Kevin Durant made it known to team management that he wanted out, so the Nets sent Durant and T. J. Warren to Phoenix in exchange for Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, and four first round draft picks. It would have been easy for the Nets to fold--or tank--but they went 11-9 in their last 20 games to earn the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Meanwhile, Irving’s individual statistics with Dallas were good (27.0 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, .510 FG%), but the Mavericks went 9-11 when he played--he missed eight games for a variety of reasons, a recurring theme throughout his career--and the 2022 Western Conference finalists tumbled from fifth place to 11th place, failing to even qualify for the Play-in Tournament. One can argue that Dallas' collapse is not Irving's fault because he performed up to expectations, but there is no denying that Dallas’ season fell apart after management sacrificed depth and defense for Irving’s flashy offense. It must be noted that for well over a decade the Mavericks have been vocal proponents of "advanced basketball statistics," and they have not been shy about asserting that their use of such numbers has been advantageous.  It would be fascinating to know which analytics influenced many of their major personnel decisions over the years, including not keeping Steve Nash, dismantling the 2011 championship team, giving up on Kristaps Porzingis, not re-signing Jalen Brunson, and trading for Irving.  

Not surprisingly, Durant made an immediate positive impact for Phoenix, with the only concern being his health; since Durant ruptured his Achilles during the 2019 NBA Finals, he missed the entire 2020 season and he did not play more than 55 games in 2021, 2022, or 2023. Durant appeared in 47 games during the 2023 season, and his teams went 34-13 in those games, including an 8-0 mark with the Suns--but Durant has already missed 18 games as a Sun.

If Durant had played more games this season then his name would be mentioned in the regular season MVP conversation. Three players have been named finalists in the regular season MVP balloting: two-time reigning regular season MVP Nikola Jokic, two-time former regular season MVP (2019, 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid, who finished second in regular season MVP voting in each of the past two seasons.

Jokic led Denver to the best record in the Western Conference (53-29) while averaging 24.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg (second in the league), and a career-high 9.8 apg (setting a single season record for centers while ranking third in the league). He played in 69 games; the Nuggets posted a 48-21 record with him in the lineup, and a 5-8 record when he did not play.

Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee to the best record in the NBA (58-24) while averaging a career-high 31.1 ppg (fifth in the league), 11.8 rpg (third in the league), and 5.7 apg. He played in 63 games; the Bucks posted a 47-16 record with him in the lineup, and an 11-8 record when he did not play.

Embiid led Philadelphia to the third best record in the Eastern Conference (54-28) while averaging a career-high 33.1 ppg to capture his second consecutive scoring title. He also averaged 10.2 rpg (eighth in the league) and 4.2 apg. He played in 66 games; the 76ers posted a 43-23 record with him in the lineup, and an 11-5 record when he did not play. The MVP award seems to matter more to Embiid than to the other two top contenders, perhaps because Embiid is the only member of that trio who has yet to win an MVP.  

The historical standard is that an NBA regular season MVP must play in at least 85% of the scheduled games, which adds up to at least 70 games in the traditional 82 game season. Bill Walton is the only regular season MVP in NBA history who played in less than 85% of his team's games. If the historical standard were applied this season, then none of the top three contenders would be eligible. Starting next season, the NBA will enforce a requirement that players must participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards. Under that standard, Antetokounmpo would not be eligible for awards consideration this season, and Embiid would barely make the cut; it will be interesting to see if the new rule inspires players do less resting/load managing.

I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league, with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player (for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player).

Antetokounmpo has been the best all-around player in the NBA for the past several years, but I feel uneasy crowning him as the MVP for a season in which he missed 19 games, particularly when there are other strong candidates.

Embiid is not as good of an all-around player as Antetokounmpo, and he does not have the impact on team success that Antetokounmpo and Jokic do; the 76ers won more than two thirds of the games that Embiid missed this season. The surging media narrative is that Embiid will win the award. He is an MVP caliber player, but I do not believe that he is the best all-around player in the NBA, nor do I believe that he had a better season than Antetokounmpo or Jokic.

Jokic is not a perfect MVP candidate; he is worse defensively than both of the other top two contenders, and his performance level wavered a bit down the stretch. From a historical standpoint, a third consecutive regular season MVP would put him in a category with only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Julius Erving, and Larry Bird; Jokic definitely seems like the odd member in that group--but the award should be given out on a year to year basis, and this year Jokic nearly averaged a triple double while being by far the most important and impactful player on the best team in the Western Conference. Jokic is also the MVP candidate who came closest to matching the 70 games played threshold.

I want to throw my support behind Antetokounmpo, but I am just not comfortable endorsing the idea that a player can miss nearly a fourth of the season and still win the sport's most prestigious individual award, so I would select Jokic as the 2022-23 NBA regular season MVP.

The 2023 NBA playoffs are generating a lot of hype because of the widespread belief that there are more teams than usual that have a realistic opportunity to win the championship. I suspect that as the playoffs unfold we will see that there are fewer legitimate contenders than many people are suggesting. I believe and hope that the regular season matters, that teams that did less load managing and had better continuity will enjoy advantages over teams that spent the season load managing and teams that made trades and juggled rosters as if building a championship team is as easy as warming up microwaveable food.

Here are my first round predictions:

Eastern Conference

#1 Milwaukee (58-24) versus #8 Miami (44-38) 
 
Perhaps the Bucks learned from their mistake last season when they rested their starters in the final regular season game, conceding the second seed to the Boston Celtics--who then defeated Milwaukee at Boston in game seven of the second round. This year, the Bucks will have homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. Homecourt advantage should not matter much in the first round, but the Bucks appear to be on a collision course for a rematch with the Celtics--this time in the Eastern Conference Finals--and homecourt advantage will be very important in that series.

As mentioned above, Antetokounmpo authored yet another MVP-caliber season. Entering the playoffs, the Bucks have more depth than they enjoyed during last year's playoffs. Khris Middleton only played in 33 regular season games as he battled a variety of injuries, but he is expected to be ready to go when the playoffs begin. Jrue Holiday made the All-Star team while leading the Bucks in assists (7.4 apg) and ranking second on the team in scoring (19.3 ppg). Brook Lopez is a candidate for the Defensive Player of the Year award. The Bucks have several other quality rotaton players, including Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles, and Jevon Carter.

The Bucks led the league in rebounding, and they ranked second in defensive field goal percentage. They accomplished those things despite committing the second fewest fouls. Defending and rebounding without fouling enabled the Bucks to give up the third fewest number of free throws made.

There is often hype surrounding an eighth seeded team that is the proverbial "team no one wants to face," but it is important to remember that are good reasons (weaknesses) explaining why a team finished in eighth place, and those reasons (weaknesses) tend to be exposed by a superior team in a playoff series. Miami was a mediocre and flawed team over the course of the 82 game season--they ranked 30th (last) in the league in scoring, and they ranked 27th in the league in rebounding. The Heat ranked second in points allowed, but that is deceptive because their games tended to be slow paced; they ranked 22nd in the league in defensive field goal percentage, which is a strong indicator that their defense was not up to the standard expected from Miami: the 2020 Miami Heat team that reached the NBA Finals ranked seventh in the league in defensive field goal percentage. It is improbable that Milwaukee will lose four games out of seven to this mediocre and flawed Miami team. Milwaukee will win in five games.

#2 Boston (57-25) versus #7 Atlanta (41-41)

The Celtics are on a mission to return to the NBA Finals after squandering a 2-1 lead versus the Golden State Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals. They had the best record in the NBA for a significant portion of the season before they slipped a bit and fell behind the Bucks, who had a 16 game winning streak from January 23-March 1. The Celtics ranked fourth in the league in scoring, fifth in points allowed, fifth in defensive field goal percentage, and seventh in rebounding. 

Jayson Tatum averaged a career-high--and Celtics' single season record--30.1 ppg (ranking sixth in the league) while setting career highs in rebounding (8.8 rpg), assists (4.6 apg), and three point field goals made (240). Jaylen Brown's numbers (26.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.5 apg) were almost as good at Tatum's, and a good case could be made that Tatum and Brown are the NBA's best all-around duo.

Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malcolm Brogdon ranked third on the team in scoring (14.9 ppg), providing a consistent offensive spark off of the bench.

The Hawks were a mediocre team throughout the regular season, shuffling through three coaches without straying too far in either direction from a .500 record. The Hawks ranked third in the league in scoring and 10th in rebounding, but they were very bad defensively, ranking 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed. They earned the seventh seed by pounding the Miami Heat inside to win their Play-In Tournament game, 116-105. Atlanta outrebounded Miami 63-39 while enjoying a 64-46 advantage in paint points.

Beating a flawed Heat team in one Play-In Tournament game is not likely to translate to a playoff series win versus the talented and deep Celtics. Boston will win in four games.

#3 Philadelphia (54-28) versus #6 Brooklyn (45-37)

Here is the scorecard for Philadelphia's much hyped "Process": season win totals of 19, 18, 10, and 28 followed by four second round playoff losses sandwiched around a first round playoff loss. That is demonstrably not "Tanking to the Top."  The 76ers spent four years being lousy on purpose, and then spent the last five years unable to get past the second round of the playoffs. Joel Embiid is the only player left from the tanking process. He is undeniably a great talent, but he missed two entire seasons due to injury and he has never played more than 68 games in a season. Embiid's playoff numbers are not bad, but his postseason scoring and field goal shooting (24.0 ppg, .468 FG%) are markedly worse than his regular season scoring and field goal shooting (27.2 ppg, .501 FG%). That is important, because when a team spends a whole season playing a certain way and relying on a star player to be productive and efficient it is very difficult to compensate if that star player fails to maintain his production and efficiency.

Speaking of failing to maintain production and efficiency, James Harden is all set to begin his annual playoff "concert tour" featuring single game field goal numbers that look like spring or summer concert dates (hat tip to Jalen Rose for the "concert tour" line). Harden played in 12 playoff games last season, and he shot .400 or worse from the field in eight of them. In the series-clinching loss to the Miami Heat, Harden--a better scorer than Michael Jordan according to Daryl Morey--scored 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, including 0-2 field goal shooting in the second half of a winnable game. 

There is a good case that Harden is the worst playoff choker among All-Star caliber players in pro basketball history.

Will Embiid stay healthy and productive throughout four playoff series to lead Philadelphia to a championship? Will Harden stop choking? Anything is possible, but don't bet on either of those possibilities becoming realities. Until proven otherwise, Embiid and Harden are who I have repeatedly said they are.

The 76ers are again heading for an early playoff exit--but not in the first round. The Brooklyn Nets are scrappy and they play hard. After all of the chaos, drama, and nonsense Kyrie Irving created in the first part of this season with the Nets, there is more than a little poetic justice that the Nets worked their way into the playoffs while Irving's new team played their way out of the playoffs. It would be a great story if the Nets upset the 76ers, but Embiid is a difficult matchup for almost any team, and he is a nightmare matchup for an undersized team like Brooklyn. Harden will have good moments and bad moments, Tyrese Maxey will step up when Harden disappears, and Embiid will feast on smaller defenders. Philadelphia will win in five games.

#4 Cleveland (51-31) versus #5 New York (47-35)

Donovan Mitchell delivered everything that the Cavaliers expected and hoped for after acquiring him from the Utah Jazz, posting career high numbers in scoring (28.3 ppg), field goal percentage (.484), free throw percentage (.867), and three point field goals made (245). He authored a 71 point game, which is a high point total even in today's era of laissez-faire defense.  

Despite the productivity of Mitchell and his backcourt mate Darius Garland (21.6 ppg, 7.8 apg), the Cavaliers ranked just 25th in the league in scoring; relative to this era, the Cavaliers run a low possession, high efficiency offense: they ranked fifth in field goal percentage and sixth in turnovers.

Cleveland's main collective strength is defense. The Cavaliers ranked first in points allowed and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Considering their size and defensive prowess, it is surprising that they ranked just 25th in rebounding. Evan Mobley (16.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg) and Jarrett Allen (14.3 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 1.2 bpg) provide high efficiency paint scoring, solid rebounding, and excellent rim protection.

This is New York's second playoff appearance in Tom Thibodeau's three seasons coaching the Knicks, who lost in the first round of the 2021 playoffs. By recent Knick standards, Thibodeau has built a dynasty: from 2014-2020 the Knicks made no playoff appearances and lost at least 45 games in each season. 

Julius Randle had a very good 2023 season (25.1 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 4.1 apg), but he missed the last five games after suffering a sprained ankle, and his health status for this series is uncertain. Free agent acquisition Jalen Brunson (24.0 ppg, 6.2 apg) is an excellent scorer, playmaker, and leader. The Knicks excel at rebounding (third in the league) and defensive field goal percentage (third in the league), and they are very good at protecting the ball (third in the league in turnovers). They were hovering around .500 as late as early February before closing the season by winning 17 of their final 25 games.

The Knicks can pose some challenges for the Cavaliers, but Cleveland's superior size and excellent defense combined with Mitchell's experience as a top level playoff scorer should be enough for the Cavaliers to prevail. Cleveland will win in six games.

Western Conference

#1 Denver (53-29) versus #8 Minnesota (42-40)

As discussed above, Nikola Jokic had another MVP caliber season, and the Nuggets once again were very dependent on his contributions--but he has a good supporting cast that plays very well with him, even if they struggle at times without him. Jamal Murray reemerged as an All-Star caliber guard (20.0 ppg, 6.2 apg), while Michael Porter Jr. (17.4 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (16.3 ppg) are good complementary scorers. The Nuggets led the league in field goal percentage but ranked just 20th in defensive field goal percentage and 19th in rebounding. Their defense and rebounding must improve for them to match or exceed their 2020 run to the Western Conference Finals, but the Nuggets have too much firepower to lose to a mediocre eighth seed--and that is what the Minnesota Timberwolves are.

Last weekend, the Timberwolves seemed to be on the verge of imploding after Rudy Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson during a timeout--resulting in Gobert being sent home by the team and then suspended for the first Play-In Tournament game--and elite wing defender Jaden McDaniels ended his season by breaking his hand while punching a wall. Then, the Timberwolves squandered a 15 point Play-In Tournament game lead versus the L.A. Lakers, but the Timberwolves bounced back to rout the Oklahoma City Thunder 120-95 to earn the eighth seed.

The Timberwolves ranked third in the league in field goal percentage but they ranked 27th in turnovers and 29th in fouls committed, two statistics that indicate how many possessions this team squanders. The Timberwolves are talented and it would not be surprising if they are competitive at times versus the Nuggets, but Denver will win in six games.

#2 Memphis (51-31) versus #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)

The Memphis Grizzlies have been a better and more consistent team than the L.A. Lakers throughout the 2022-23 campaign. The Grizzlies led the league in defensive field goal percentage and they ranked second in rebounding. Ja Morant (26.2 ppg, 8.1 apg, 5.9 rpg) is electrifying, but the Grizzlies have two other players averaging more than 18 ppg: Desmond Bane (21.5 ppg) and Jaren Jackson Jr. (18.6 ppg). Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and the only downside of his game is that he commits too many silly fouls.

Some commentators insist that the Lakers are poised to make a deep playoff run. I'll believe that when I see it. The only deep playoff run that LeBron James has led since 2018 took place in the Orlando Bubble after enjoying several months of rest when the NBA paused the 2020 season because of COVID-19. I am not saying that the Bubble title does not "count," but I am saying that there is a big difference between winning a championship with no road playoff games after having months of rest before the playoffs versus winning a championship when your team must win at least one road game per series without having any time off before the playoffs.

The Lakers are at their best when LeBron James and Anthony Davis attack the paint on offense and make their presence felt in the paint on defense. If James and Davis consistently attack the paint, the Lakers could win one or two games, but it is difficult to believe that the Lakers will outplay the Grizzlies four times in a seven game series.

The one concern for Memphis is that the absence of injured big men Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke will hurt them defensively and on the boards, but the Grizzlies have enough talent and depth to beat the Lakers. The Grizzlies will win in six games.

#3 Sacramento (48-34) versus #6 Golden State (44-38)

The Kings have a high-powered offense and a suspect defense; they ranked first in the league in scoring and second in the league in field goal percentage, but they ranked 25th in the league in points allowed and 29th in the league in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings do not match the statistical profile of a championship team, and I may regret picking them to win this series--but the Warriors have a similar statistical profile to the Kings, and they are a lousy road team that must win at least one road game to eliminate the Kings. I say "at least one" because the Kings are an excellent road team (25-16), so there is a decent chance that the Kings will win a game at Golden State, which would then up the ante for the Warriors.

Although the Kings have a young team, I don't expect that their three best players will flinch under the playoff lights. Damontas Sabonis (19.1 ppg, 12.3 rpg, 7.3 apg) is a force in the paint who can also drain three pointers and make plays for his teammates. He led the league in rebounding, he ranked 10th in the league in field goal percentage (.639), and he ranked 11th in the league in assists. Sabonis is an All-NBA caliber player, as is De'Aaron Fox (25.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, 4.2 rpg). Harrison Barnes (15.0 ppg) is a solid scorer who was a starter for Golden State's 2015 championship team.

The Warriors are the defending champions until someone beats them, and their roster is full of celebrated players who have won multiple NBA titles, including Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green--but the NBA playoffs are about what you can do now, not what you have done in the past. This season, the Warriors ranked 30th (last) in the league in turnovers and 28th in fouls committed; they are a careless team that gives extra possessions to their opponents and then relies on three point shooting to make up the difference. That is not a championship formula unless defense is added to the equation, which was the case during their championship runs but has not been the case this season.

Could the Warriors put everything together, play elite level defense, and win the 2023 championship? I have more trepidation picking against them then I do about picking against any other lower seeded team this year, but I will stick with my analysis that the Warriors showed us who they are over the course of the regular season. Sacramento will win in six games.

#4 Phoenix (45-37) versus #5 L.A. Clippers (44-38) 

The Suns were heading for an early playoff loss--at best--before acquiring Kevin Durant, who is one of the NBA's few legitimate franchise players (many players are given that label, but only a handful have earned it). Durant is an elite three level scorer who is also a good rebounder, passer, and defensive player. It will be very difficult for opposing teams to design a defense to contain Durant while also dealing with Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Chris Paul has slowed down and he has always been injury-prone, but he is still a solid playmaker and midrange shooter. 

The biggest questions for the Suns involve health and continuity. If their key players can stay healthy--no small question considering the injury histories of Durant, Booker, and Paul--and if the Suns can play good defense under playoff pressure then this team has a chance to make a deep playoff run.

The Clippers entered the season with championship hopes based on the potential of their dynamic duo--Kawhi Leonard and Paul George--but between real injuries and deplorable load management both players missed a ton of games. George is injured now and it is not clear when/if he will return for the playoffs. It is difficult to picture the Clippers winning this series or even extending it to seven games without George.

Russell Westbrook played very well for the Clippers after escaping from the L.A. Lakers. Westbrook averaged 15.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, and 4.9 rpg in 21 games as the Clippers' starting point guard. He shot .489 from the field, including .356 from three point range, putting the lie to the notions that (1) he is washed up and (2) he cannot score efficiently. In order to win this series--particularly with George being out or limited--the Clippers will need to fully unleash Westbrook, on the order of 20-plus ppg, 8-plus apg, and 8-plus rpg. If Westbrook can get the Clippers going in transition then the Clippers may have a chance, assuming that Leonard also plays at a very high level. Leonard is one of very few players in the league who can go head to head with Durant and not come out on the short end of that matchup. It would be a great story if Westbrook leads his hometown team to a first round upset, but I predict that Phoenix will win in six games.      

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Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Milwaukee-Cleveland, Boston-Philadelphia, Denver-Phoenix, and Memphis-Sacramento.

Cleveland is an excellent defensive team, and Donovan Mitchell has proven that he can provide explosive offense during the playoffs, but over the course of a playoff series Giannis Antetokounmpo's greatness plus Milwaukee's size and depth will be too much. Milwaukee will win in six games.

Boston versus Philadelphia is one of the NBA's most classic matchups, featuring great individual rivalries like Chamberlain versus Russell and Erving versus Bird. The modern Celtics are a playoff-tested, playoff-proven squad, while the modern 76ers have consistently bowed out of the playoffs no later than the second round. Tatum will dominate, Embiid will have a few great moments, Harden will disappear when it matters most, and Boston will win in six games.

The Suns have more star power than the Nuggets, but three of the Suns' top players--Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul--have been injury-prone in recent seasons. I believe that at least one of them will be limited by injury by the second round, and that injuries--plus the lack of defensive chemistry that often plagues teams after they are assembled on the fly as this team has been--will contribute to the Suns' downfall. Denver will win in seven games.

Memphis and Sacramento are two rising young teams, but the Grizzlies have more playoff experience and are better defensively, so I expect the Grizzlies to win in six games. If both of these teams keep their rosters together and stay healthy, they could have some fun playoff matchups over the next few seasons.

The Milwaukee-Boston playoff rematch--this time in the Eastern Conference Finals instead of the second round--will probably be the best series of the 2023 playoffs. I expect this heavyweight bout to go the distance, with Milwaukee winning game seven at home to avenge last year's game seven loss to the Celtics in Boston.

Denver versus Memphis in the Western Conference Finals will be a battle of two franchises that have never reached the NBA Finals, although the Nuggets played in the 1976 ABA Finals. I think that Denver has been--and continues to be--underrated by many commentators, and I expect the Nuggets to beat the Grizzlies in six games.

The NBA Finals will feature a matchup of two two-time regular season MVPs, although one of them may be a three-time regular season MVP by the time that the NBA Finals begin. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already proven that he can lead a team to a championship, while an NBA title is the only thing missing from Nikola Jokic's resume. The Bucks have enough size to slow Jokic down without conceding open shots to his supporting cast. I pick the Bucks to beat the Nuggets in six games in the 2023 NBA Finals.

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Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:

In my 2022-2023 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went six for eight in my 2022-2023 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8

That adds up to 110/144 in the East and 113/144 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .774.

Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:

2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15

Total: 195/270 (.722)

At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 18 years I have correctly picked 18 of the 36 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 18 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.

I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 12:42 AM

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