Trae Young is the Quintessential Washington Wizard
The Washington Wizards have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 1979, and they have qualified for the playoffs once since 2018, so it is not surprising that the player they have anointed as their franchise cornerstone has posted a 2-3 playoff series record in his eight year career. The Wizards sent Corey Kispert and C.J. McCollum to the Atlanta Hawks for four-time All-Star Trae Young, who last won a playoff series in 2021 and is thus the perfect player to lead the way for the Wizards to continue to avoid playoff success.
Travis Schlenk, who was Atlanta's general manager when the Hawks acquired Young in a draft day deal in 2018, is now the Wizards' senior vice president for player personnel. After the Hawks traded for Young in 2018, Schlenk declared, "We love his ability to pass the ball, to make other players better with
his court vision. Obviously he gets a lot of notoriety for his long-range
shooting, but I think his ability to pass the ball is what we really
liked about him.'' Young made it clear in recent days that he wanted to be traded to Washington, and apparently Young's minimal postseason success did not diminish Schlenk's enthusiasm about Young's skills.
In Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths, I summarized Young's career:
I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has
hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and
assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts
up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a
mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven
seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The
notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff
career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point
range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff
series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five
playoff series.
Young's NBA regular season career averages of 25.2 ppg and 9.8 apg may
look impressive, but he has shot better than .438 from the field for a
season just once, and he has shot worse than .420 from the field in
three seasons, including a career-low .411 in 76 games in 2024-25 and
.415 in 10 games so far this season. Young ranks 12th in ABA/NBA regular season career scoring average but--much like the scoring numbers posted by Damian Lillard (13th) and James Harden (29th)--Young's individual production is disconnected from sustained team success. Young and Lillard have higher career scoring averages than five-time NBA champion Kobe Bryant and four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry, and Harden has a higher career scoring average than one-time NBA champion Giannis Antetokounmpo (who Harden foolishly mocked for supposedly lacking basketball skills), four-time NBA champion Shaquille O'Neal, one-time NBA champion Jayson Tatum, and one-time NBA champion Nikola Jokic.
Young ranks third in ABA/NBA regular season assists average behind Magic Johnson and John Stockton, but no competent talent evaluator would take Young over--to name just a few championship-winning point guards--Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas, and Jason Kidd.
Statistics are meaningless without context. At one time, Stephon Marbury had logged more 20 ppg/8 apg seasons than any player other than Oscar Robertson, but no one other than the deluded, so-called "Starbury" ranks Marbury among the all-time great point guards. Young is the modern Marbury, with the main differences being that Marbury was stronger while Young is more apt to shoot long three pointers. Much of what I wrote about Marbury 18 years ago also applies to Young:
Stephon Marbury is no Mozart of the hardwood. Marbury possesses certain
obvious physical talents--speed, ballhandling skills, shooting ability,
good strength for his size--but he neither instinctively makes the right
play nor has he--paraphrasing Mozart from the above story--sufficiently
familiarized himself with the work of the great composers (playmaking
guards) of the past. Mozart never had to think in conventional terms
about becoming a composer because he understood how to apply his talent
in a way that synthesized and then expanded upon the work of previous
great composers. Marbury has tried to take the same "shortcut" but
without the benefit of being a basketball visionary genius. Magic
Johnson passed the ball the way that Mozart composed music; like Mozart,
Magic did not have to think about all of the intermediary steps in his
development. A great chess player once said that his philosophy was to
do things as they must be done and then see what happens--but this
presupposes having the vision/talent/training necessary to see what must
be done; it used to be said of Fischer that he could throw a piece in
the air and it would land on the best square. For Magic, that meant
seeing that his teammate would become open before even that teammate
realized it and then delivering the ball through the hapless defense in
such a manner that the teammate could not only catch the pass but also
attempt a shot that he had a good chance of making based on his skill
set.
The construction of Marbury's game is the very opposite of
such genius; Magic passed the ball to make plays and to win games, while
Marbury passes the ball to get assists and thus to use statistics to
"prove" his value and obtain a bigger contract. One might object that
ultimately there is no difference between Magic accumulating assists and
Marbury accumulating assists but to think such a thing--let alone say
it--betrays a complete lack of understanding of the sport (and of
genius). Magic passed the ball not with the goal of getting an assist
for himself but because the pass was the right play in that given
situation. Marbury passes the ball if and only if, in his estimation,
the recipient is likely to immediately shoot and score, thus padding
Marbury's assist total. One problem with this is all of the passes
Marbury does not throw because he does not think that they will boost
his statistics. Another problem with this is all of the bad shots
Marbury then takes in lieu of making good passes. A third problem with
this is that Marbury in general is not interested in doing anything on
the court that does not make him look good on the stat sheet--matters
such as defense or any action when he does not have the ball other than
figuring out how to get the ball back in his hands so that he can resume
padding his stats.
During his NBA career, Marbury has played for
Minnesota, New Jersey, Phoenix and New York. Almost without fail, when
he leaves a team that team performs better and when he joins a team that
team performs worse. In layman's terms, he's a loser. He may be a
wonderful human being--I don't know, I've never met the man--but as a
point guard, as a basketball floor general, he is a loser: his teams
lose and, what's worse, rather than accept responsibility for those
losses he consistently offers excuses while at the same time providing
ridiculous self-evaluations of his play. When Terrell Owens proclaims, "Who can make a play? I can!"
you may be amused by his bravado or merely annoyed by it but you cannot
deny the obvious fact that a player who ranks second in receiving
touchdowns in NFL history can--and does--make plays. However, when
Stephon Marbury earnestly proclaims that he is the best point guard in
the NBA all you can do is wonder if he is delusional and/or high.
The Hawks won more games than they lost twice in Young's eight seasons, peaking with a 41-31 record in the COVID-19-shortened 2020-21 season, and they have not posted a record better than .500 since 2021-22. During Young's eight seasons, the Hawks went 221-272 (.448 winning percentage) with Young and 46-48 (.489 winning percentage) without him--and the trend of playing better without Young has become more pronounced in the past three seasons, when the Hawks went 60-80 (.429 winning percentage) with Young and 33-29 (.532 winning percentage) without him.
The Hawks did well to unload Young's huge contract, poor shot selection, and non-existent defense, while the Wizards did nothing to change their reputation as one of the most ineptly run NBA franchises of the past 40 years.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, C.J. McCollum, Corey Kispert, Stephon Marbury, Trae Young, Washington Wizards
posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 PM
Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths
The NBA Play-In Tournament lived up (or down) to my expectations in the opener, as the physical, defensive-minded Orlando Magic stomped an Atlanta Hawks team that struggled to score and then compounded that problem by playing very little defense. The Magic won 120-95 and the game was not as close as the final margin suggested: the Magic outrebounded the Hawks 54-42, outscored the Hawks in the paint 58-52, and held the Hawks to 32-82 field goal shooting (.381), including 4-21 (.190) from three point range. The Magic's bench outscored the Hawks' bench 57-30.
Cole Anthony scored a team-high 26 points off of the bench for Orlando, and he passed for six assists without committing a turnover in 20 minutes of action. Wendell Carter Jr. added 19 points, and Paolo Banchero had a strong all-around game (17 points, nine rebounds, team-high seven assists) even though he shot just 4-13 from the field. Anthony Black contributed 16 points, four rebounds, and four assists as a reserve while posting a game-best +34 plus/minus number.
Trae Young scored a game-high 28 points, but he shot just 8-21 from the field and had the second worst plus/minus number (-22) in the game. Young capped off his performance by getting ejected for disrespecting a
referee with 4:47 remaining in the game; in his post-game press
conference, Young complained about his team not getting a fair whistle,
even though the Magic committed more fouls (25-18) and the Hawks shot
more free throws (34-27). I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five playoff series.
The Magic outscored the Hawks 17-2 in the final 4:58 of the first quarter and led 32-17 after the first 12 minutes. There is so much talk about "clutch time" statistics, but the reality is that the NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was true in this game: the Magic outscored the Hawks by 15 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Hawks by 10 the rest of the way. The Magic built a 22 point first half lead before settling for a 61-47 halftime edge. The Hawks cut the margin to 71-68 on a Caris LeVert layup with 3:00 left in the third quarter, but the Magic outscored the Hawks 21-13 in the next seven minutes to reestablish a double digit lead that they never relinquished the rest of the way.
The Magic earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and will face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the playoffs, while the Hawks will host the winner of the Chicago-Miami game for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
The second game of Tuesday night's NBA Play-In Tournament doubleheader looked like it was heading toward a blowout win for Golden State after the Warriors sprinted to a 55-35 second quarter lead versus Memphis, but the Grizzlies roared back to cut the margin to single digits at the 8:43 mark of the third quarter. The Grizzlies led 96-94 early in the fourth quarter, and did not trail by more than six points the rest of the way. I predicted that the Warriors would win "a close, hard fought game," and the Warriors eventually prevailed, 121-116.
Jimmy Butler added another chapter to the legend of "Playoff Jimmy" (or "Play-In Jimmy," in this instance), pouring in a game-high 38 points on 12-20 field goal shooting while also contributing seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals. The way that he forced his way out of Miami in the middle of this season instead of honoring his contract stinks, but there is no denying his talent. Stephen Curry shot a Trae Young-like 9-22 from the field, but he made all 13 of his free throws to finish with 37 points while also grabbing a team-high eight rebounds, passing for four assists, and committing just one turnover in 39 minutes.
Desmond Bane scored a team-high 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting. Ja Morant added 22 points, but he had just three assists while committing a game-high five turnovers. Even more worrisome for the Grizzlies is that he scored just four points after suffering a nasty sprained ankle while hitting a 10 foot jumper with 4:25 left in the third quarter and the Warriors clinging to an 82-80 lead. Morant was fouled on the play and made the free throw to bring the Grizzlies to within one point. Jaren Jackson Jr. (18 points, six rebounds, four assists) and rookie Zach Edey (14 points, game-high 17 rebounds) played solidly in the paint but the Grizzlies needed them to shoot better from the field than 6-15 and 4-11 respectively.
The Grizzlies outrebounded the Warriors 50-39, but they squandered those extra possessions by losing the turnover battle, 19-10. If the undersized Warriors get outrebounded by a team that does not handle the ball with the dexterity of Edward Scissorhands they will likely lose, so they are facing quite the challenge as the seventh seed in the Western Conference with a first round matchup versus a Houston team that led the NBA in rebounding while ranking 11th in fewest turnovers. The Rockets are bigger, stronger, and younger than the Warriors while also having homecourt advantage.
The Grizzlies will host the winner of the Dallas-Sacramento game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. Morant's swift recovery from his ankle injury is important, but the Grizzlies should have enough firepower to beat Dallas or Sacramento--and they don't have enough firepower to pose much of a threat to the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
The best news is that the Play-In Tournament will soon be over, and the playoffs will begin on Saturday April 19.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cole Anthony, Desmond Bane, Golden State Warriors, Ja Morant, Jimmy Butler, Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Play-In Tournament, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Wendell Carter Jr.
posted by David Friedman @ 2:32 AM
Atlanta and Houston Join Milwaukee and Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup Semifinals
Milwaukee and Orlando advanced to the NBA Cup semifinals on Tuesday night, and after Wednesday night's action Atlanta and Houston joined them. The Hawks silenced the Knicks 108-100 in Madison Square Garden, and then the Rockets tamed the visiting Warriors 91-90.
De'Andre Hunter scored a game-high 24 points off of the bench for the Hawks. Trae Young had 22 points despite shooting just 8-22 from the field, and he dished for a game-high 11 assists. The Hawks shot just 43-104 (.413) from the field, but they held the Knicks to 40-93 (.430) field goal shooting while winning the rebounding battle 58-49, outscoring the Knicks in the paint 66-54, and outscoring the Knicks in points off of turnovers 18-13. All five New York starters scored in double figures--led by Josh Hart's 21 points--but the Knicks' bench contributed just 14 points. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 19 points, grabbed a game-high 19 rebounds, and passed for five assists, and Mikal Bridges added 19 points, but Jalen Brunson had just 14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting, though he did pass for eight assists.
The Knicks started the season 4-5 as they battled injuries while trying to acclimate offseason acquisitions Towns and Bridges into their system, but they have posted an 11-5 record since then. Barring further injuries, there is every reason to believe that the Knicks are poised to make a deep playoff run.
The Hawks are more of a mystery. They have played well recently, but it is not clear if what they are doing is sustainable over the course of an 82 game season and through the playoffs; after all, last season the L.A. Lakers won the NBA Cup only to barely qualify for the NBA playoffs before meekly bowing out to Denver in five games in the first round. Last season, the Hawks missed the playoffs with a 36-46 record while ranking 28th in the NBA in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage; this season, the 14-12 Hawks rank 28th in points allowed and 20th in defensive field goal percentage. After starting the season 7-11, they have won seven of their last eight games, a run that began with a surprising 135-124 win versus the Cavaliers in Cleveland. I attended that game, and watched the Cavaliers take a 27-8 lead in the first seven minutes before the Hawks stormed back to tie the score at 35 by the end of the first quarter; my takeaway is that the Hawks have a lot of talent, but their shot selection is questionable and they only play defense sporadically.
In short, the Hawks are a streaky team not just from game to game, but from quarter to quarter, and they demonstrated that again on Wednesday night: they trailed the Knicks 26-14 in the first quarter, and then outscored the Knicks 34-18 in the third quarter.
I tend to not believe in low-ranked defensive teams that rely heavily on an undersized, inefficient guard, so forgive me if I do not yet jump on the Hawks' bandwagon; I acknowledge that their roster is more talented than I thought before the start of the season, but I am skeptical that they can sustain the level of play that they have maintained over the past couple of weeks.
Switching our attention to the other NBA Cup bracket, the Houston-Golden State game was dramatic because of the close finish, but it also exemplified much of what is wrong with the modern NBA; if you enjoy watching elite athletes jacking up--and missing--three pointers, then you were in basketball heaven while looking at the teams combine to shoot 18-65 (.277) from three point range. The teams launched nearly 40% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, undeterred by their misses; that is a normal NBA game now, and while it is true that the league's three point shooting percentage is a respectable .360 that does not change the reality that this style of play results in long stretches during which neither team scores very much. I previously explained the inherent flaws involved in this high variance playing style. It seems like no team is willing to buck the trend of volume three point shooting, but one gets the sense that the first team with a quality big man that decides to play "old school" ball will wax these teams that live and die with the long ball; the evidence supporting that assertion is that even after the so-called three point revolution took hold the NBA championship has still consistently been won by teams that are proficient defensively and that are able to attack the paint offensively when their three point shots are not falling.
Alperen Sengun scored a game-high 26 points for the Rockets, and he attempted just one three pointer while spearheading Houston's 58-40 points in the paint advantage. He also had a game-high 11 rebounds plus five assists. Jabari Smith Jr. added 15 points. Jonathan Kuminga led the Warriors with 20 points, while Stephen Curry had a quiet game by his lofty standards (19 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, team-high five assists). Golden State Coach Steve Kerr was incensed by a loose ball fall with 3.5 seconds remaining that gave Jalen Green the opportunity to drain what proved to be the game-winning free throws. Kerr is correct that the referees should have granted Houston a timeout instead of calling a foul, but it is difficult to muster much sympathy for a team that missed 26 three pointers and that squandered a seven point lead in the final 3:38 while missing three treys and committing two shot clock violations; one of those missed three pointers was fired up by Curry with 11.1 seconds remaining and the Warriors clinging to a 90-89 lead. Is that a high percentage play? I realize that Curry has made many such shots, but that is not the point. The high percentage play in that situation is to run the clock down as far as possible before shooting, thus giving the other team very little time to score. A three pointer is not necessary or desirable, let alone a three pointer with so much time remaining. After Curry missed, the resulting loose ball scramble took several seconds before the fateful foul was called, which means that if Curry had drained more time off of the clock then time may have run out before either team gained possession.
Viewed from a wide lens, the "exciting" finish consisted of poor clock management, bad shot selection, and then a questionable foul call. NBA action is...not as fantastic as it used to be.
Labels: Alperen Sengun, Atlanta Hawks, De' Andre Hunter, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Jalen Brunson, Karl Anthony-Towns, New York Knicks, Stephen Curry, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 1:45 AM
76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed
The Philadelphia 76ers do not have vintage Joel Embiid as the 2023 regular season MVP works his way into form after having knee surgery, but good enough Joel Embiid was sufficient for them to beat the Miami Heat, 105-104. The 76ers earned the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference and the opportunity to face the New York Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. Embiid scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds, and dished for five assists, but he shot just 6-17 from the field and did not block a shot. His game lacks explosiveness and force, although he still is able to use his size and strength to make plays against smaller defenders. Nicolas Batum provided a huge lift off of the bench with 20 points while shooting 7-12 from the field, including 6-10 from three point range. Tyrese Maxey added 19 points and a team-high six assists, while Kelly Oubre Jr. was the only other 76er who scored in double figures (11 points, plus eight rebounds).
Tyler Herro scored a game-high 25 points (including 16 in the fourth quarter) and passed for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 9-27 from the field. Jimmy Butler slipped in the first quarter and suffered a right knee injury that caused him to limp for the rest of the game. He finished with 19 points on 5-18 field goal shooting in 40 minutes, but it has been reported that Butler will have an MRI and may be out indefinitely after his knee tightened up as the game progressed. All-Star center Bam Adebayo hauled in a team-high 12 rebounds, but he scored just 10 points while looking undersized and overmatched despite Embiid's obvious current limitations.
The Heat led 23-22 after the first quarter, and the Philadelphia boo birds emerged in full force as the 76ers sleepwalked through the second quarter. The Heat were up by as many as 14 points before settling for a 51-39 halftime advantage. Batum drilled three treys in the third quarter as the 76ers won that stanza 30-23 to narrow the deficit to 74-69 entering the fourth quarter. Embiid had 11 points, four rebounds, and two assists as the 76ers outscored the Heat 36-30 in the fourth quarter. The score was tied 96-96 with just 36 seconds remaining when Embiid dished to Oubre for a layup that became a three point play after Butler fouled Oubre. The 76ers led the rest of the way, closing out the game by hitting their last seven free throws (including the free throw from Oubre's three point play).
The up and down Heat have reached the NBA Finals in two of the past four seasons but have also relegated themselves to the Play-In Tournament for two consecutive years. They will play the Chicago Bulls on Friday night to determine the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls gained the right to play the Heat by beating the Atlanta Hawks, 131-116.
Coby White scored a game-high 42 points on 15-21 field goal shooting, outshining both of Atlanta's more celebrated guards. Nicola Vucevic added 24 points and a team-high 12 rebounds, while DeMar DeRozan had 22 points plus a team-high nine assists. Dejounte Murray scored 30 points and passed for six assists for the Hawks, while his backcourt mate Trae Young had 22 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, 10 assists, six turnovers, and a game-worst -27 plus/minus number. Young's first quarter performance was historically bad: one point, five turnovers, and a -18 plus/minus number while playing all 12 minutes. I understand that Young is recovering from a hand injury, but those numbers would be awful even if he played blindfolded with one arm tied behind his back, and ESPN's Richard Jefferson correctly pointed out that bad decision making was a much bigger issue than Young's hand.
The Chicago-Atlanta matchup was everything that I expected/feared would
happen when the moveable object meets the resistable force: the Bulls
raced out to a 40-22 first quarter lead, but only had a 73-67 halftime
advantage. If Hubie Brown had done the color commentary for this game,
he might have set a personal record for saying "Will you please...?"
followed by "play defense," "pay attention to the cutters," "stop
turning the ball over," "stop taking low percentage shots," and so
forth.
The Bulls reasserted control by winning the third quarter much the same way that they dominated the first quarter; this time, the margin was 37-25. The teams traded baskets in the fourth quarter until Young hit a meaningless three pointer at the 24.8 second mark; in the old CBA that shot would have mattered because it enabled the Hawks to "win" the fourth quarter 24-21, but here it just provided a fitting end to the Hawks' season with Young drilling a logo three to wrap a game that his team still lost by 15 points.
Under normal circumstances, I would not give the Bulls much of a chance to beat the Heat in Miami in an elimination game, but if Butler is out of action then it may be tough for the anemic Heat offense to generate enough points--and the Heat would also miss Butler's leadership and defense, even though they went 13-9 without him during the regular season. Butler is a tough guy--I can think of several current players who are considered big name stars who would not have gutted out Wednesday night's game the way that he did--but once the next day swelling sets in and the MRI results are known the team may have no responsible choice other than shutting him down.
Although the Heat eliminated the Boston Celtics in last year's playoffs, that outcome seems highly unlikely even if Butler's knee is OK and the Heat send the Bulls packing; this Heat team is not as deep as last year's Heat, and this season's Celtics are much more talented than last year's Celtics while also appearing to be tougher and more focused.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Coby White, Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Trae Young, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 12:56 AM
Cold Young Heats Up as Hawks Defeat Celtics, 130-122
Ever since the Atlanta Hawks reached the 2021 Eastern Conference
Finals, Trae Young has lived up to his "Ice Trae" nickname in a most
unfortunate way in the playoffs: he has been ice cold, and that
continued in the first two games of Atlanta's first round series versus
the Boston Celtics, as Young shot just .350 from the field while the
Celtics took a 2-0 lead--but on Friday night Young scored a game-high 32
points on 12-22 field goal shooting as the Hawks won, 130-122. Young
also had a game-high nine assists plus six rebounds. His backcourt mate
Dejounte Murray contributed 25 points, six rebounds, and five assists.
The Hawks dominated the Celtics in the paint, outscoring them 54-40 and
outrebounding them 48-29. Clint Capela scored 10 points and grabbed a
game-high 11 rebounds as six Hawks had at least five rebounds, compared
with just two Celtics tallying at least five rebounds. Jayson Tatum led
the Celtics in scoring and rebounding (29 points, 10 rebounds) while
dishing for five assists. Marcus Smart had 24 points and a team-high
eight assists.
Hubie Brown provided the ESPN color commentary. I believe that this is his first telecast since he did color commentary for game one of the Cleveland-New York series last Saturday.
In his pregame comments, Brown singled out Young's inefficiency as both
a shooter and a ballhandler in this series. Brown mentioned that the
Hawks must do a better job defending the three point shot because the
Celtics attempt a lot of three pointers and shoot a good percentage from
beyond the arc; this season, the Celtics ranked sixth in the league in
three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goal
attempts. Brown suggested that the Hawks could score inside if (1) their
big men did a better job of establishing position in the paint and (2)
if their guards delivered passes on time and on target after the big men
established good post position.
As is often the case, the bullet
points that Brown mentioned before the game emerged as relevant factors
during the game. In the first quarter, Young started slowly with four
points on 1-3 field goal shooting while the Celtics made nine three
pointers, tying the franchise playoff record for most three pointers in
one quarter; not surprisingly, the Celtics led 37-33 after the first 12
minutes.
The Celtics shot 15-25 (.600) from three point range in
the first half--but they trailed by seven points at halftime because the
Hawks scored 74 points in the first half, setting a franchise playoff
record for points in a half. The Hawks outscored the Celtics in the
paint 34-10 in the first half. Bogdan Bogdanovic led Atlanta with 15
first half points while shooting 6-6 from the field, including 3-3 from
beyond the arc; he did not score in the second half, but he helped the
Hawks to build a lead that they never relinquished. Saddiq Bey added 12
first half points on 4-4 field goal shooting, and Young bounced back
from his slow start to produce 10 points and seven assists in the first
half.
The Celtics briefly tied the game at 79 early in the third
quarter on Jaylen Brown's dunk, but after John Collins hit a three
pointer to put the Hawks up 82-79 the Hawks led the rest of the way.
This
game's high volume three point shooting (21-48 for the Celtics, 15-34
for the Hawks) should not distract one's attention from how the Hawks
won the game: they controlled the paint with inside scoring and dominant
rebounding, and they limited the Celtics' three point shooting in the
second half (6-23). Hubie Brown was correct that the Hawks could create
inside scoring opportunities if they were patient and precise. Based on
the past performances of both teams, it seems unlikely that the Hawks
can follow that formula three more times in this series--nor is it
likely that Young will continue to play this efficiently--but the Hawks
avoided being swept and, at the very least, they will have the Celtics'
full attention next game.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Hubie Brown, Jayson Tatum, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 10:55 PM
2023 NBA Playoffs Open With Quadrupleheader
It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in
which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more
significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners
prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80%
of the time, as I noted when I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007. Per the NBA's 2023 Playoff Guide, since 1983-84 the game one winner has won 77.1% of all NBA playoff series, and in 2022 the game one winner won 12 out of 15 series. The reason
for the importance of the first game is that--barring injuries or other major unforeseen changes during the
series--the
matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be
decisive the rest
of the way.
Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Philadelphia 121, Brooklyn 101
The 76ers should win this series without too much difficulty because they enjoy more star power, homecourt advantage, and a significant matchup advantage with MVP candidate Joel Embiid versus whoever the Nets use to attempt to check him. James Harden is a notorious playoff choke artist, but he is less likely to choke in a series like this one than in a series that requires him to do heavy lifting.
Embiid led the 76ers with 26 points, but he shot just 7-15 from the field and only grabbed five rebounds. However, the energy that the Nets expended to limit his impact opened up the floor for Embiid's teammates. Harden finished with 23 points and a game-high 13 assists. He shot 7-13 from three point range, but just 1-8 from inside the arc. The 76ers shot 21-43 (.486) on three pointers, giving the Nets a no-win choice: watch Embiid score 40-plus points versus single coverage, or watch the 76ers fire away from deep after Embiid is trapped. The Nets are betting that Harden will not regularly shoot 7-13 from beyond the arc--and they are right--but one of many problems for the Nets is that Tyrese Maxey will also not likely continue to shoot just 3-8 from the field. In short, the individual numbers will change from game to game, but Philadelphia's overall matchup advantages will remain constant.
Mikal Bridges scored a game-high 30 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, and the Nets shot .557 from the field, but the Nets only attempted 70 field goals while the 76ers attempted 89 field goals. Philadelphia created those extra possessions because they outrebounded the Nets 38-35 while only committing nine turnovers compared to the Nets' 20 turnovers.
If the Nets clean up their ballhandling and continue to shoot a high percentage then they could steal a game if Philadelphia's three point shooting cools off--but, as noted above, the Nets' problem from game to game is that if they fix one problematic area they are likely to have a problem in a different area.
In short, the 76ers are the better team.
Boston 112, Atlanta 99
Boston led 29-19 by the end of the first quarter and extended that margin to 74-44 by halftime. The Celtics led by as many as 32 points in the third quarter, and the Hawks never cut the deficit to less than 12 points the rest of the way. This is the kind of dominant performance one should expect from the defending Eastern Conference champions against a mediocre team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
Three Celtics scored at least 24 points: Jaylen Brown (29 points, 12 rebounds, three assists), Jayson Tatum (25 points, 11 rebounds, two assists), and Derrick White (24 points, five rebounds, seven assists). Coach Joe Mazzulla cut Boston's rotation to eight players, and each of his starters played at least 32 minutes, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes. Depth is important to overcome foul trouble and injuries during the course of the 82 game regular season, but in the playoffs the top teams often put their best players on the court for extended minutes and challenge the opposing team to keep up.
Dejounte Murray led the Hawks with 25 points, and he tied Clint Capela for the team lead with eight rebounds, but he shot just 10-25 from the field. The often-hyped Trae Young managed just 16 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight assists, five turnovers, and a team-worst -14 plus/minus number. This was Young's sixth playoff game since Atlanta lost in game six of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Here are Young's field goal shooting numbers in those six games: 1-12, 10-20, 6-14, 3-11, 2-12, 5-18. That adds up to a .310 field goal percentage. When I call a team's playoff run "improbable" or "fluky," and when I repeatedly insist that undersized guards who don't play much defense will not lead a team to a championship, I am not being a "hater"; I am drawing conclusions based on evidence.
Danny Ainge's old quip that the NBA playoffs are not the Tour de France--meaning that Atlanta will not start out the next game behind by 13 points--remains true, but it is equally true that matchup advantages exploited in game one will likely be exploited throughout the series.
This is the one first round series that I predicted will be a sweep, and nothing that happened in game one changed my mind about that.
New York 101, Cleveland 97
It was a treat to watch and hear Hubie Brown do the color commentary for ESPN. Unless I missed something, the last telecast that he did was over a month ago. Brown, who coached the Knicks from 1982-86, noted before the game began how big of a difference Jalen Brunson has made this season for the Knicks as a scorer, playmaker, and leader, singling out Brunson's ability to finish in the paint despite not being very tall or super athletic. Brown also emphasized New York's offensive rebounding prowess. Both observations proved to be prescient: Brunson led the Knicks with 27 points while committing just one turnover, and the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-38, including a 17-11 advantage on the offensive boards.
Julius Randle returned to action after missing five games with a sprained ankle. He shot just 7-20 from the field, but he contributed 19 points, a team-high 10 rebounds, and four assists. Josh Hart scored 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting and he tied Randle with 10 rebounds. No other Knick scored in double figures in a low scoring, grind it out game reminiscent of how the Knicks played in the 1990s.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 38 points with eight assists, five rebounds, and just two turnovers, but he did not receive quite enough help from his teammates. Darius Garland added 17 points, but he had five turnovers and just one assist. Jarret Allen had a solid game (14 points, 14 rebounds, four assists), but the Cavaliers need more from Evan Mobley (eight points on 4-13 field goal shooting, 11 rebounds). Neither Allen nor Mobley blocked a shot, and the entire Cleveland team blocked just two shots.
The Cavaliers started slowly on their homecourt, trailing 30-24 by the end of the first quarter. Foul trouble limited Brunson's first half playing time to just nine minutes, or else the Knicks may have led by more than just 50-45 at halftime. Brunson scored 21 points in 20 minutes in the second half.
The Cavaliers briefly took a one point lead in the fourth quarter, and they outscored the Knicks 27-23 in the final stanza, but they never quite made up for their slow start. The NBA is often a first quarter league--and not a fourth quarter league, as many people assert--and the tone for a playoff series is often set in game one. However, I think that in this particular series it would be premature to say that the Cavaliers are in trouble. The Knicks went just 23-18 at home during the regular season, so assuming that the Cavaliers take care of business in Cleveland in game two this series will very likely stand at 2-2 after two games are played in New York. For that to happen, the Cavaliers must do a better job of exploiting their size by playing aggressively--and efficiently--in the paint at both ends of the court.
Sacramento 126, Golden State 123
Many commentators and self-proclaimed experts have probably not seen the Kings play or understood how good this team really is, but a national TV audience got a taste in game one as the Kings withstood every punch from the reigning NBA champions. De'Aaron Fox had one of the best playoff debuts in NBA history, pouring in a game-high 38 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs--to outduel Stephen Curry, who scored 30 points in defeat. Malik Monk (32 points) teamed up with Fox to give Sacramento their version of the "Splash Brothers," as they outscored Curry and Klay Thompson, 70-51. Domantas Sabonis struggled with his shot, scoring just 12 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, but the league's leading rebounder dominated the paint with a game-high 16 rebounds as the Kings outrebounded the Warriors, 50-41. The Kings outscored the Warriors in the paint, 60-44. News flash: this year's Warriors are an undersized team that does not defend particularly well and struggles to win on the road. Assuming that the Warriors will get bigger, defend better, and start winning on the road in the playoffs after 82 games of evidence suggesting otherwise is wishful thinking, not analytical thinking.
In the first half, it looked like the Kings might die from a thousand cuts as they appeared bewildered by the challenge of simultaneously guarding the three point line and preventing backdoor cuts--but the Kings found their footing in the second half, outscoring the Warriors 71-62 as Fox (29 points) and Monk (17 points) eviscerated Golden State's defense.
Both teams struggle defensively, so expect this series to feature many high scoring shootouts. The Warriors will fight to the end; it would be very surprising to see them collapse like the Phoenix Suns did in last year's playoffs, but it should not surprise anyone who has been paying attention to see the Kings eliminate the Warriors in the first round.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM
Milwaukee Versus Atlanta Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#3 Milwaukee (46-26) vs. #5 Atlanta (41-31)
Season series: Milwaukee, 2-1
Atlanta can win if…the Hawks can keep the games close and Trae Young is the best player on the court during crunch time. Young is undersized, not very efficient, and he often takes bad shots, but he is also fearless in clutch moments. He has posted some of the best combined scoring/assists numbers ever for a player making his first playoff run, averaging 29.1 ppg and 10.4 apg in 12 playoff games. Young is shooting just .413 from the field (including .330 from three point range). Shooting percentage is not a perfect measurement of shooting ability or effectiveness as a scorer, but combining those numbers with the eye test it is apparent that Young's shot selection is not the best. His playoff FT% is .877, so there is no question that he has a pure shooting stroke.
Overall, the Hawks did not shoot very well versus the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round (.444 FG%/.335 3FG%), though some of that can be attributed to Young attempting 60 more field goals than anyone else on the team despite having the second worst field goal percentage among the eight players who appeared in all seven games. A team's best player receives the most defensive attention, and he will often not lead the team in FG%, but based on his position, skill set and role Young should be shooting at least .450 from the field, and he shot just .392 versus the 76ers.
Five other Hawks scored in double figures against Philadelphia; that offensive balance combined with a solid defense enabled the Hawks to knock off the East's top seed by winning game seven on the road. Young shot a ghastly .217 from the field (5-23) in that 103-96 win and he also had six turnovers, but he led the Hawks with 10 assists and he controlled the game down the stretch. His impact is similar to Allen Iverson's, but Young shoots three pointers more often that Iverson, which is typical of high scoring guards in this era.
There is a ceiling to how far a high volume, low efficiency guard can take a team, particularly when that guard is undersized and does not have a huge impact on defense, but Iverson proved that a tough player who is fearless in clutch situations can lead a team to the NBA Finals, and that level of success is not out of the question for Young, though sustaining that level of success is improbable unless Young alters his style a bit and/or obtains more help; after leading the 76ers to the 2001 NBA Finals in just his fourth season, Iverson had many scintillating playoff performances--including three playoff series during which he averaged at least 30 ppg--but his teams only advanced past the first round one time.
It will be interesting to see how far Young leads the Hawks this season, and then if that turns out to be the first of many deep playoff runs or just an aberration. Prior to the playoffs, I did not think that Young could take the Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals, and now it will be interesting to see if he can lead them to the NBA Finals and then sustain that kind of postseason success throughout his career.
Milwaukee will win because…Giannis Antetokounmpo is still playing at an MVP level, and he is the main cog in perhaps the most unheralded "Big Three" in the league: Khris Middleton is an elite shooter/scorer who also can run the offense, and Jrue Holiday is an excellent two-way player. Middleton (shooting splits of .408/.365/.861) and Holiday (.361/.261/.727) both did not shoot well during Milwaukee's seven game upset of the Brooklyn Nets but they were both productive overall (24.3 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.3 apg for Middleton; 15.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 4.3 apg for Holiday) and they both made key crunch time contributions. It seems unlikely that they will shoot that poorly versus the Hawks.
Milwaukee may be the healthiest team left in the playoffs, with only Donte DiVincenzo (season-ending ankle injury suffered in game three of the first round) missing from the regular rotation. Injuries have been as important as any other single factor in determining the course of the 2021 playoffs, and if Milwaukee continues to stay healthy that will be a huge advantage.
Other things to consider: It is difficult to believe that after avenging last year's embarrassing loss to Miami and then surviving a seven game war versus the paper champion Brooklyn Nets the Bucks will lose to an Atlanta team that had a sub-.500 record more than halfway through this season. The Hawks are now a very good team, and I have already underestimated them for two series in a row, but the Bucks enjoy matchup advantages at multiple positions. Antetokounmpo and Middleton should both have big series, and look for Holiday to bounce back after performing erratically versus the Nets last round.
Milwaukee will win in six games.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 9:32 AM
Philadelphia Versus Atlanta Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Philadelphia (49-23) vs. #5 Atlanta (41-31)
Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1
Atlanta can win if…Trae Young averages at least 30 ppg, 10 apg, and .450 field goal shooting--in other words, if Young matches or exceeds his first round production. Also, it is vital that the Hawks' big men by committee combine to limit Joel Embiid to less than 25 ppg without having to rely on double teams that create driving lanes and/or open shots for Embiid's teammates (or, alternatively, Embiid's knee injury keeps him out of the lineup or reduces his productivity).
Philadelphia will win because…the 76ers are bigger, more talented, and have more depth. When healthy and motivated, Joel Embiid is a matchup nightmare. He averaged 24.0 ppg on .635 field goal shooting in four games versus the Washington Wizards in the first round (he missed one game due to a knee injury), but even more significant that Embiid's individual numbers are the 76ers' team numbers when he is on the court compared to when he is out of the game: the 76ers look like a championship contender when Embiid plays, but they just look like a good, solid team--at best--when he does not play. Ben Simmons, who nearly averaged a triple double in the first round (14.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 9.2 apg), must remain productive at both ends of the court. Tobias Harris led the 76ers in scoring in the first round (25.0 ppg) while also averaging 10.0 rpg; he is an All-Star caliber player whose size, mobility, and shooting touch create matchup problems.
Other things to consider: The Hawks have looked like a different team since Nate McMillan took over as coach from Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta started the season 14-20 under Pierce, but went 27-11 the rest of the way with McMillan at the helm. I was not sure to what extent that transformation would extend to the postseason, but the Hawks smothered the Knicks' Julius Randle (holding him to 18.0 ppg on .298 field goal shooting in a 4-1 first round victory). I underestimated the Hawks prior to the first round, and it is possible that I am still underestimating them, but even if one accepts the notion that the "new" Hawks are comparable to the 76ers the series should still tilt in Philadelphia's favor due to having the best individual player (Embiid) plus having home court advantage.
The main challenge in predicting the outcome of any series involving the 76ers is gauging Embiid's health, conditioning, and level of mental engagement.
For this round, I am making positive assumptions about Embiid that, if incorrect, will change the result, but I am picking Philadelphia to win in five games.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 7:59 PM
When Fans Become Fanatics, the NBA Must Act Decisively
Prince once said that he did not want fans because "fan" is just short for "fanatic"; he called the people who truly love his music "friends."A small but vocal, ignorant, and active number of NBA "fans" are proving Prince's point. This is not about people who buy tickets to cheer the home team, or even boo the road team; this is about people who think that a ticket's limited license provides unlimited license to act like a fool, to say ignorant and hateful things, and even to attack another person.
Last night, while Russell Westbrook left the court after suffering an ankle injury, a "fan" dumped popcorn on Westbrook. This is not the first time that "fans" have acted like ignorant fools toward Westbrook (and other players, but he seems to be a favorite target for abuse), and the NBA must act decisively to stop this before it gets even more out of hand.
Although statutes vary from state to state, the general template for an assault statute is that assault is defined by creating the apprehension (which means awareness, not necessarily fear) that a person is imminently going to make unwanted and offensive contact with your body--and the general template for a battery statute is that a person has made unwanted and offensive contact with your body. Assault and battery are actionable both under civil law (i.e., the victim can sue for damages) and criminal law (i.e., the state can prosecute the perpetrator).
If Westbrook saw what the "fan" was doing before the "fan" dumped popcorn on Westbrook, then Westbrook is the victim of assault. Being hit by the popcorn makes Westbrook a victim of battery.
Today, the Philadelphia 76ers (the home team) announced that the perpetrator has been banned "indefinitely," adding, "We apologize to Russell Westbrook and the Washington Wizards for being
subjected to this type of unacceptable and disrespectful behavior. There is no place for it in our
sport or arena."
The NBA also issued a statement: "The return of more NBA fans to our arenas has brought great excitement
and energy to the start of the playoffs, but it is critical that we all
show respect for players, officials and our fellow fans. An enhanced fan code of conduct will be vigorously enforced in
order to ensure a safe and respectful environment for all involved."
In a related story, the New York Knicks have "indefinitely" banned the "fan" who spat on Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young.
Banning criminals from attending sporting events is not a sufficient response, and a more effective response must happen before something tragic occurs. The 76ers, Knicks, and any other team whose "fans" commit criminal acts should provide any available evidence to the authorities for possible criminal prosecution. It is unlikely that it would be worth it for Westbrook or Young to pursue civil action--each would have to prove damages, and even if they proved damages they would only collect to the extent that the perpetrators are able to pay--but if the league and the teams acted decisively then "fans" would learn that buying a ticket is not a license to commit mayhem.
Right now, "fans" feel protected and entitled--this is the "internet tough guy" writ large--but the NBA can nip this in the bud with correct and decisive action. Adam Silver, the ball is in your court.
Labels: NBA, Prince, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 6:12 PM
