20 Second Timeout

Put Away the Brooms, New York: Spurs Win Game Three, End the Knicks' Sweep Dreams

For the third straight game, the San Antonio Spurs took a double digit first quarter lead versus the New York Knicks, but this time the Spurs did not collapse in the fourth quarter's final moments and they posted a 115-111 win to cut the Knicks' NBA Finals lead to 2-1. The Knicks--whose 13 game playoff winning streak ended--dreamed of sweeping their way to their first NBA title since 1973, but now the Spurs are one win away from reclaiming homecourt advantage. 

The Knicks outrebounded the Spurs 46-37, but the Spurs countered by committing just eight turnovers while the Knicks had 13 turnovers. The Knicks only had two more fouls than the Spurs (23-21) but the timing of fouls is important: the Spurs got into the bonus early enough to earn 32 free throw attempts compared to 22 free throw attempts for the Knicks, and the Spurs made 25 free throws while the Knicks made 18 free throws. 

In his postgame remarks, New York coach Mike Brown emphasized that the Spurs "played great" and that he does not often complain about officiating, but he pointed out that in the second half the Spurs attempted 24 free throws while the Knicks attempted eight free throws. Calling out officiating and free throw disparities is a time-honored NBA coaching tradition, particularly during the playoffs, but suffice it to say that the Knicks would be better served figuring out how to not fall behind early in each game, before foul trouble or free throws are relevant. However, I don't blame Brown for complaining; every coach does it not only because they think that it works but because it also generates an "us against them" mentality in the locker room by taking the focus off of what the players could have done better. 

My main issue with the game three officiating echoes an observation made by ABC/ESPN commentators Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler: the officials let a lot of contact go early in the game only to then call things more closely later in the game, leaving players to rightly wonder why the same stuff that they got away with in the first quarter was whistled later in the game. I have played a lot of basketball, and I believe that it is a player's obligation to adapt to how the officials decide to call the game--but once the officials set the tone then the officials should be consistent throughout the game. I don't want to make this whole recap about officiating, so I will conclude this portion of my analysis by doing something I rarely do: agree with Draymond Green, who said during ESPN's postgame show that the officials generally favor the more aggressive team, and in game three the Spurs were the aggressor from the start of the game.

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high tying 32 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds, dishing for six assists, blocking three shots, snaring two steals, and committing just one turnover. He was selective and efficient (2-4) from beyond the arc. Wembanyama is the second youngest player to have at least 30 points, at least five rebounds, and at least five assists in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson, who accomplished the feat in the 1980 NBA Finals as a 20 year old rookie en route to leading the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title while winning the NBA Finals MVP. Stephon Castle added 23 points on 8-14 field goal shooting along with five rebounds, five assists, and two steals. Dylan Harper shot just 5-18 from the field, but he made a significant impact off of the bench with 13 points, a game-high tying nine rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes. De'Aaron Fox had 12 points on 4-14 field goal shooting, but he made his impact felt with a game-high eight assists and two blocked shots. Julian Champagnie (12 points, three assists) and Devin Vassell (11 points, four rebounds) made solid contributions.

Jalen Brunson had a game-high tying 32 points on 11-25 field goal shooting with five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five turnovers. OG Anunoby scored 28 points while shooting 9-13 from the field, and he had five rebounds and two blocked shots. Josh Hart had another excellent all-around game: 16 points, game-high tying nine rebounds, five assists. Karl-Anthony Towns--the best player in the series through the first two games--had 11 points, eight rebounds, and just one assist. During much of the Knicks' winning streak, they ran their offense through Towns as a distributor who also contributed timely baskets. In this game he only had 10 field goal attempts, so he was not involved enough in the offense as either a scorer or a playmaker. Jordan Clarkson provided a spark with 10 points in 13 minutes off of the bench, but that type of contribution is only noticed during a win and tends to be overlooked in a loss.

Although both teams made runs throughout the game, the Spurs set the overall tone early, reinforcing an important point: the NBA is often called a fourth quarter league, but it is really a first quarter league because in the first quarter the winning team can identify and exploit matchup advantages that will work throughout the game. Wembanyama had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the first five minutes of the game, and he did all of that work in close proximity to the hoop. Yes, he can make three pointers, but he is most effective when he attacks the hoop as his first option. Defensively, the Spurs positioned Wembanyama so that he spent most of his time protecting the paint, with a secondary responsibility of closing out to shooters on the baseline, instead of assigning him to chase Towns around the perimeter. The Spurs led by as much as 12 in the first quarter, and they were ahead 33-22 heading into the second quarter.

The Knicks set a franchise NBA Finals record by pouring in 42 points in the second quarter, with Anunoby (11 points) and Brunson (10 points) doing much of the damage. Brunson's three pointer at the 4:18 mark gave the Knicks their first lead of the game, 50-49. Castle had 11 of the Spurs' 24 second quarter points. The Knicks led 64-57 at halftime, and noted prognosticator Charles Barkley declared during the halftime show that the game was over, joking with Shaquille O'Neal that he would bet his house that the Knicks would win. 

The Knicks started the third quarter sloppily with turnovers on their first two possessions leading to six straight San Antonio points on a Champagnie drive, a Champagnie three pointer, and a Champagnie free throw after Brunson was called for a flagrant foul for a reckless close out on Champagnie's trey. The Spurs took their first lead of the second half, 72-71, on a Vassell three pointer with 7:26 left in the third quarter. The rest of the third quarter was closely contested, with the Spurs on top 92-91 heading into the final stanza.

Considering how the previous two games ended, the Knicks must have felt ecstatic about the prospect of yet another game going down to the wire. The Spurs did not lead by more than eight points during the fourth quarter, but they never let the Knicks tie the score; the Knicks had a chance to all but clinch the championship by winning the fourth quarter to win game three, but instead they scored 20 fourth quarter points on 7-27 (.259) field goal shooting. The Spurs shot almost as poorly (6-21, .286) from the field, but they shot 10-10 from the free throw line. Every play that seemed to give the Knicks momentum only served to keep the game close without pushing the Knicks over the top. For example, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to give the Spurs a 103-93 lead and the officials called a foul on Mitchell Robinson to create a four point play opportunity--but the Knicks challenged the call, and the officials correctly ruled that Keldon Johnson had pushed Robinson into Wembanyama, thus wiping out not only Wembanyama's potential free throw attempt but also his three point shot. After Brunson's driving layup cut the Spurs' advantage to 100-95, it looked like the Knicks were in position for another late game rally. The Knicks got as close as 113-111 on Anunoby's three pointer with 9.4 seconds remaining, but Castle calmly answered with two free throws to keep the game out of reach. Brunson led both teams with 12 fourth quarter points on 4-7 field goal shooting, but the Spurs had built just enough of a cushion that his late game heroics did not save the Knicks.

The game to game overreactions by pundits are amusing; perhaps the overheated rhetoric generates clicks or views or ratings, but the reality is that each game in a playoff series has a distinct character and in the long run the team that best exploits matchup advantages will prevail four times. Even though the Knicks won the first two games on the road, it is not like they dominated the Spurs from start to finish; the Knicks overcame a 14 point deficit to win game one, and they won game two after squandering a 14 point lead. 

It should be obvious that these teams are closely matched and that each team has the ability to win on the road. The Spurs have the most talented player (Wembanyama) plus a fleet of young and athletic perimeter players who are harassing Brunson into a low field goal percentage much like they harassed two-time regular season MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into a low field goal percentage in the Western Conference Finals. The Knicks have more playoff experience, a versatile big man (Towns) who is capable of challenging Wembanyama at both ends of the court, and a crafty lead guard (Brunson) who rises to the occasion in close games.

Instead of reasoned analysis of matchup advantages, offensive sets, and defensive schemes, we will now spend the next two days hearing about how the Knicks are in trouble, are lucky that they are not down 3-0, and are being outcoached, outhustled, and/or outdone in terms of the vaunted "in game adjustments"--and the people making those bold pronouncements will be the same ones who declared before game three that the Knicks are on the verge of sweeping the series. It is a lot easier to ride emotional waves than to analyze what is happening while it is happening.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:56 AM

4 comments

Knicks Stun Spurs to Take 2-0 NBA Finals Lead

In a contentious and physical game during which each team enjoyed a double digit lead, the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 105-104 thanks to a Jalen Brunson free throw followed by Victor Wembanyama's missed jump shot. The Knicks shot worse than .420 from the field for the second consecutive game (37-89, .416) but they outrebounded the Spurs 44-42, they beat the Spurs in second chance points 14-9, and they narrowly won the turnover battle (16-15) in a game during which every possession mattered. The Knicks have won 13 consecutive playoff games, the second longest postseason winning streak in NBA history, trailing only the 15 game winning streak authored by the 2017 Golden State Warriors. 

Karl-Anthony Towns led the Knicks with 21 points on 8-12 field goal shooting plus a game-high 13 rebounds. He also had four assists, and a game-high tying +11 plus/minus number. He found an excellent balance of attacking the hoop, stretching the defense (he shot 3-5 from beyond the arc), and picking apart the Spurs' defense with pinpoint passing. His combination of size, strength, and agility flustered Wembanyama.

Game one hero Jalen Brunson contributed 20 points, a game-high tying six assists, five rebounds, and a game-high five steals. He shot just 7-25 from the field and had a game-high tying four turnovers, but he had a team-high seven fourth quarter points as the Knicks scored just enough to hold off the surging Spurs, who won the fourth quarter 29-21. Brunson had a -10 plus/minus number.

The oft-criticized Mikal Bridges made his impact felt all over the court with 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high tying six assists. The Knicks' other double figure scorers were OG Anunoby (17 points, four rebounds, three assists, two blocked shots) and Landry Shamet (13 points, +9 plus/minus number). Jose Alvorado shot 0-4 from the field but he contributed three rebounds and two assists in 10 minutes while matching Towns' game-high +11 plus/minus number.

Wembanyama overcame a sluggish first half (seven points on 2-4 field goal shooting) to finish with a game-high 29 points on 11-21 field goal shooting plus a team-high tying nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots; however, his late game lapses--including a careless turnover followed by fouling Brunson for what turned out to be the game-winning free throw--will be the most indelible images of his performance, along with his missed jump shot in the waning seconds. He had a game-high tying four turnovers.

De'Aaron Fox had 20 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, five assists and a game-high tying four turnovers. This was his first game with at least 20 points since he scored 21 points in San Antonio's 139-109 game six series-clinching win over Minnesota on May 15. Dylan Harper had a very good game off of the bench: 15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, six rebounds, and a game-high +12 plus/minus number in 32 minutes. The Spurs need more from Stephon Castle, who scored 14 points on 5-14 field goal shooting with four assists, a game-high tying four turnovers, and a -6 plus/minus number. Devin Vassell filled up the boxscore with 14 points on 4-9 field goal shooting, a team-high tying nine rebounds, five assists, and no turnovers.

In the first quarter, the Spurs aggressively drove to the hoop to score, and to pass to open shooters when the defense collapsed. This attacking mentality put a lot of pressure on the Knicks to defend against the drive, recover to perimeter shooters, and still be mindful of Wembanyama's looming presence as a potential driver, cutter, lob threat, and offensive rebounder. Near the end of the first quarter, Wembanyama faked a three pointer, and then drove to the hoop for a layup, but overall--as ABC/ESPN game analysts Richard Jefferson and Tim Legler both noted--he "drifted" to the perimeter too much in the first half. The Spurs led 34-25 after the first 12 minutes. Fox scored nine first quarter points, which is more than he scored in all of game one (seven points on 3-13 field goal shooting). Julian Champagnie, who did not score in the final three quarters, had eight first quarter points.

In addition to their efficient first quarter shooting (13-20, .650), the Spurs applied relentless pressure against New York's ballhandlers to slow down the game, drain the shot clock, and disrupt New York's offensive rhythm. The Knicks shot 8-21 (.381) from the field in the first quarter, and seemed to be hanging on for dear life--but the Knicks turned things around in the second quarter, outscoring the Spurs 31-18, utilizing a stifling defense that held the Spurs to 4-21 (.190) field goal shooting. The Knicks ended the first half with a flurry: Bridges nailed a corner three pointer after excellent ball movement to trim San Antonio's lead to 48-47, and then Shamet drove to the hoop to give the Knicks their first lead of the game, 49-48, at the 3:39 mark. Vassell answered with a four point play, but then the Knicks scored the final seven points of the half on a Brunson layup, a Bridges floater off of a deft feed from Towns, and a Towns three pointer from the left corner. The Knicks were up 56-52 at halftime after trailing by as much as 12 points in the second quarter. 

During the halftime show, ABC/ESPN commentators Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal debated if Wembanyama was "in shock" (Barkley) or just not playing with enough energy (O'Neal). Wembanyama had a big third quarter (12 points on 5-8 field goal shooting), but the Knicks used a balanced attack to outscore the Spurs 28-23 to carry an 84-75 advantage into the final stanza.

It looked like the Knicks had knocked out the Spurs after Anunoby's driving dunk over Wembanyama put the Knicks up 97-83 at the 6:04 mark of the fourth quarter--the Knicks' biggest lead of the game--but the Spurs answered with a 14-0 run in the next 3:05. During that stretch, the Knicks' offense looked disjointed, and their usually stout defense crumbled. The Knicks had overcome a 14 point third quarter deficit to win game one, and it seemed as if the Spurs were about to return the favor--but the Knicks are a very resilient team. After the Spurs tied the score, the Knicks' ensuing possession ended with an out of bounds call in favor of the Spurs, but after a coach's challenge the call was reversed to a proximate foul on Champagnie as Anunoby attempted a three point shot. Anunoby made all three free throws to end the Spurs' run and put the Knicks up, 100-97. Those were the Knicks' first free throws in the second half. Some players and teams waste energy focusing on which fouls are called or not called, but the Knicks stay focused on playing. 

After the teams traded baskets, the Knicks had a strange possession in which Brunson never touched the ball while Bridges dribbled the clock down before turning the ball over. The Spurs then took a 104-102 lead on Wembanyama's three point play with 57.3 seconds remaining. Brunson's patented fadeaway jumper tied the score at 104 at the 39.3 second mark. Wembanyama and Brunson each missed jumpers on the next two possessions, with Wembanyama rebounding Brunson's shot with 11.8 seconds remaining and the score still tied at 104. Wembanyama started to dribble up the court and then made an outlet pass that hit Castle in the back. Brunson snatched the loose ball, and Wembanyama compounded his mistake by fouling Brunson at midcourt. Brunson split the free throws, and the Spurs called their final timeout with 7.5 seconds left. The Spurs' last play involved Fox catching the ball in the middle of the court, hesitating before driving, and then dishing to Wembanyama for a jump shot. Wembanyama missed, and time ran out before the Spurs could retrieve the ball or commit a foul to stop the clock. ABC/ESPN commentator Kenny Smith correctly pointed out that the Spurs would have been better served to attack more quickly on their final possession so that even if they missed a shot they would have time to go for an offensive rebound or at least commit a foul to stop the clock and have one more possession trailing by one, two, or three (depending on how many free throws the Knicks made after the foul).

The Spurs' 14-0 fourth quarter run proved to be too little, too late; during the first two games they have played very well at times, but too often they have hurt themselves with a combination of passivity and mental errors. Of course, the Knicks deserve a tremendous amount of credit for pressuring the Spurs enough to make the Spurs uncomfortable and error-prone. In game one, Brunson (13 fourth quarter points) and Anunoby (12 fourth quarter points) took over late to lead the Knicks to victory; this game two win gives the Knicks a commanding advantage because no team that lost the first two NBA Finals games at home has come back to win the championship.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

6 comments

Oklahoma City Versus San Antonio Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #2 San Antonio (62-20) 

Season series: San Antonio, 4-1 

San Antonio can win if…Victor Wembanyama dominates the paint at both ends of the court while the Spurs' backcourt troika of Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Dylan Harper keeps pace with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder's deep rotation of perimeter players. The Spurs won the regular season series 4-1 by controlling the paint and by not letting the Thunder dominate the possession game; the Thunder typically thrive when they force a lot of turnovers while minimizing their own turnovers.

Wembanyama's debut playoff run has been very productive so far; he has averaged a team-high 20.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a league-leading 4.1 bpg in 10 games. He missed game three in the first round versus Portland while he was in concussion protocol, and he ranks just fourth on the team in playoff mpg (28.8) as the Spurs do everything possible to keep him healthy and fresh. 

Wembanyama averaged 19.8 ppg while leading the Spurs in rebounding (12.0 rpg) and blocked shots (4.2 bpg) as the Spurs eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-2 in the second round, ending the Timberwolves' bid to make a third straight appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama had a slow offensive start to the series in San Antonio's 104-102 game one loss (11 points on 5-17 field goal shooting) but he also snared a game-high 15 rebounds and set an NBA single game playoff record with 12 blocked shots, surpassing the previous mark (10) held by three players (Mark Eaton, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Andrew Bynum) for a statistic that the NBA has tracked since the 1973-74 season (which means that the numbers for Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and a young Kareem Abdul-Jabbar are not known). The Spurs then won two straight games with Wembanyama leading the way, notching 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and two blocked shots in San Antonio's 133-95 game two rout before exploding for 39 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocked shots in San Antonio's 115-108 game three victory. Wembanyama was ejected for elbowing Naz Reid in the head after playing less than 13 minutes in game four, and the Spurs lost 114-109. Wembanyama bounced back with 19 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots in the Spurs' 126-97 game five win at home, and then he had 19 points, six rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Spurs closed out the series with a 139-109 rout on the road.

Castle ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.9 ppg), first in playoff assists (6.1 apg), and second in three point field goals made (22). Fox is third on the team in playoff scoring (18.8 ppg) and second in assists (5.8 apg). Harper is fourth on the team in playoff scoring (13.7 ppg) and third in rebounds (5.1 rpg). Their numbers are not overwhelming individually, but collectively they put a lot of pressure on opponents in multiple ways, and they make it difficult for opponents to load up on Wembanyama.

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more consistent and more efficient. The Spurs' regular season dominance of the Thunder should not be dismissed, and it could be argued that the Spurs are a better team now than they were even just a few months ago, but the Thunder have proven over the past two seasons that they are capable of rising to the occasion when it matters most.

The Thunder are the only team to sweep the first two rounds of the 2026 playoffs, and they are the first reigning NBA champion to sweep the first two rounds since the 2001 Lakers accomplished this during the second championship run of their 2000-02 "three-peat."

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not perform up to his high standards during the Thunder's 4-0 second round sweep of the L.A. Lakers, but he still led both teams in scoring (24.5 ppg) while pacing the Thunder in assists (6.0 apg). Overall, Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder in playoff scoring (29.1 ppg) and assists (7.1 apg) with shooting splits of .514/.323/.855. He is the 2026 playoff leader in two point field goals made per game and free throws made per game.

The Thunder have rolled even though their second best player, 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams, has only played in two of their eight playoff games, averaging 20.5 ppg on .615 field goal shooting. Williams has been out of action with a grade 1 left hamstring strain since suffering the injury on April 22 in the Thunder's 120-107 game two win versus Phoenix in the first round.

Willaims' absence has given Ajay Mitchell a chance to shine. Mitchell is averaging 18.8 ppg in eight playoff games with six starts after averaging 13.6 ppg in 57 regular season games with 16 starts. 

Chet Holmgren (18.6 ppg, team-high 9.1 rpg, team-high 1.8 bpg) and Isaish Hartenstein (9.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, team-high .756 FG%) control the paint at both ends of the court. There is no love lost between Wembanyama and Holmgren, so that will be a fun--and critical--matchup to watch.

Alex Caruso (7.6 ppg, 1.5 spg), Cason Wallace (7.3 ppg, team-high 1.8 spg), Philadelphia cast-off Jared McCain (7.3 ppg), and Isaiah Joe (6.6 ppg) anchor a deep, versatile bench.

Other things to consider: In The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug, I discussed how the Thunder assembled their championship-winning roster:

Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season: 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension. 

The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren. 

Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season. 

As I noted in my 2025 Western Conference Finals Preview, tanking is not why the Thunder are winning, and the Thunder's success should not be considered a justification of tanking "because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist."

The Spurs' roster construction seems less pure. From the outside looking in, it appears that the Spurs tanked to get Wembanyama and then were either very poorly coached during Wembanyama's first season or else tanked again to obtain Castle's draft rights. It is interesting that, in contrast to several teams that admit to tanking (the 76ers being the most obvious example), then-Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich explicitly denied that the Spurs were losing on purpose or would ever lose on purpose. Regardless of what the Spurs did or did not do to obtain Wembanyama, they are so fortunate that Wembanyama is 100% committed to playing selfless, winning basketball as opposed to focusing on individual glory. Wembanyama looks like a player who is capable of leading a team to a championship--but the Thunder have already won a championship with Gilgeous-Alexander leading a talented, deep, and selfless roster. The Spurs more than had the measure of the Thunder during the regular season, but playoff basketball is contested at a different intensity level than regular season basketball. It would not be shocking if the Spurs win this series, but I think that they are still at least a year away from winning the Western Conference Finals.

Oklahoma City will defeat San Antonio in six games.

Labels: Ajay Mitchell, Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:21 AM

2 comments

San Antonio Versus Minnesota Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#2 San Antonio (62-20) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)

Season series: Minnesota, 2-1 

Minnesota can win if…the Timberwolves bully the Spurs in the paint and slow down the Spurs' transition game. The Timberwolves defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the first round, and they have eliminated the Nuggets twice in the past three seasons (2024, 2026) after losing to the Nuggets during the Nuggets' 2023 championship season. The Timberwolves are seeking their third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Golden State Warriors reached the Western Conference Finals five consecutive times (2015-19).

Denver beat Minnesota in game one when Minnesota seemed more focus on acting tough than playing smart, physical basketball, but Minnesota won four of the next five games. Rudy Gobert was the key player in this series, and his impact went far beyond his individual numbers (7.7 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg) because he anchored Minnesota's defense while holding Nikola Jokic to .446 field goal shooting, his worst field goal percentage in 17 career playoff series and significantly worse than his .520 career playoff field goal percentage. Jokic still led both teams in scoring (25.8 ppg), rebounding (13.2 rpg), and assists (9.5 apg), but he also had a series-high 23 turnovers (seven more than any other player). Gobert's elite defense is the main reason that Jokic shot so poorly and turned the ball over so frequently. Gobert also had a series-high 22 offensive rebounds as the Timberwolves gathered 72 offensive rebounds while holding the Nuggets to 42 offensive rebounds.

Gobert has received a lot of unwarranted criticism from uninformed media members, jealous/uninformed players, and uninformed social media content creators but the documented reality is that for quite some time Minnesota's defense has been significantly better with him on the court than it is with him off of the court. 

Julius Randle ranked second on the team in scoring (19.2 ppg), second in rebounding (7.3 rpg), and first in assists (4.2 apg). Jaden McDaniels averaged 17.8 ppg--including a game-high 32 points in game six--and he hounded Jamal Murray into .357 field goal shooting. McDaniels snared 17 offensive rebounds, trailing only Gobert and leading every Nugget by at least eight.

The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets despite losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to injuries. Ayo Dosunmu filled the gap, leading Minnesota with 21.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting--including a playoff career-high 43 points in Minnesota's 112-96 game four win--but he scored just 18 points in Minnesota's game five loss before missing game six due to recurring right calf soreness.  

Edwards has a bone bruise in his left knee and even if he is able to return to action during this series he will likely be limited, particularly considering that he was already battling right knee soreness before he injured his left knee. DiVincenzo ruptured his right Achilles tendon during game four versus Denver and will miss the rest of the playoffs plus most if not all of the 2026-27 regular season. 

San Antonio will win because...the Spurs are dominant defensively, and will pose problems that Minnesota's offense cannot solve sans Edwards and DiVincenzo. Through the games played on April 30, the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in points allowed (100.0 ppg), first in defensive field goal percentage (.403), and second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg) after dominating the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 in the first round. Victor Wembanyama leads the playoffs in blocked shots (4.0 bpg) as the anchor and paint protector for the Spurs' suffocating defense. 

During the regular season, the Spurs played at an elite level at both ends of the court, ranking second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. They maintained those high standards in the first round; in addition to the numbers mentioned above, they rank fifth in playoff rebounding (44.4 rpg), third in scoring (112.8 ppg), second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg), and fourth in field goal percentage (.484). 

In addition to his shot blocking prowess, Wembanyama averaged 21.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, and 1.0 spg in the first round. His shooting splits were tremendous: .583/.538/.913. Wembanyama played in four games, missing San Antonio's 120-108 game three win because he was in the concussion protocol after banging his head on the floor in game two. His averages are deflated because he only played 11 minutes in game two, finishing with five points and four rebounds in San Antonio's only loss, a 106-103 setback. 

De'Aaron Fox ranked second on the team in scoring versus Portland (20.2 ppg) while leading the Spurs in assists (6.8 apg). Stephon Castle averaged 19.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg. Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle are a three-headed monster with each player averaging around 20 ppg in the playoffs while being capable of erupting for at least 30 points in any given game.

Other things to consider: The Spurs' only weakness is that--other than Fox and Luke Kornet--the top eight players in their playoff rotation lack significant postseason experience, so it will be interesting to see if the battle-tested Timberwolves are able to exploit this. The Timberwolves showed admirable physicality, resilience, and toughness versus the Nuggets. McDaniels publicly called out the Nuggets for being weak defensively, and he and his teammates backed up his big words with bold actions on the court. It is a bit surprising that the Nuggets could not take advantage of Minnesota's depleted roster to at least force a game seven in Denver, but the young and energetic Spurs can threaten the Timberwolves in ways that the Nuggets did not: the Spurs will push the ball, they will not be as bothered by the Timberwolves' long and rangy perimeter defensive players, and their depth will prove daunting for the shorthanded Timberwolves.

San Antonio will defeat Minnesota in six games.

Labels: Ayo Dosunmu, De'Aaron Fox, Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:12 PM

4 comments

Oklahoma City and San Antonio Roll to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a 36-16 first quarter lead versus the Phoenix Suns before cruising to a 138-89 win in their NBA Cup quarterfinals game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with game-high totals in points (28 on 11-15 field goal shooting) and assists (eight) but he had plenty of help: Chet Holmgren had 24 points on 9-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and the Thunder's bench players combined to outscore the Suns' starters, 50-41. The Thunder led 74-48 at halftime and 110-72 after the third quarter, so--as has often been the case this season--Gilgeous-Alexander did not play in the fourth quarter; he is averaging almost a point per minute this season while barely playing 33 mpg, so it is fair to wonder how much he could score if he played 40 mpg and his team needed him to score a lot in the fourth quarter. Dillon Brooks led the Suns with 16 points, but he shot just 4-16 from the field.

The Thunder shot .591 (52-88) from the field while holding the Suns to .393 field goal shooting (33-84) with 20 turnovers. The Suns were missing the injured Devin Booker, but he could have scored 30 points and the Thunder still would have won going away; more than a fourth of the NBA season is over and the Suns seem to be at least a solid team, but the way that the Thunder dismantled them looked like the Dream Team (and there is only one Dream Team) dominating outclassed squads in the 1992 Olympics.

The game's only mild drama or suspense happened at the 5:18 mark of the third quarter when Phoenix guard Grayson Allen elbowed Holmgren in the chest and shoved Holmgren to the ground. Holmgren and other Thunder players stood their ground but did not do anything crazy. The referees assessed a Flagrant Foul 2 to Allen, meaning that Allen was automatically ejected. No Thunder players received fouls or technical fouls on the play; that is a level of individual and collective self-discipline that is not seen often enough in the NBA and is foreign to Draymond Green, whose lack of self-discipline and inability to control his anger is embarrassing for him, his team, and the league. The Thunder are focused on playing unselfish, winning basketball without individual agendas, drama, or nonsense, and that is very refreshing to see in a league that has too many individual agendas and too much drama/nonsense.

The Thunder matched the best 25 game start--24-1--in NBA history. Much like the only two teams in NBA history that won at least 70 regular season games--the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10) and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9)--the Thunder bring a competitive attitude to every game. The Thunder do not make excuses regarding injuries or playing back to back games or anything else. It is too soon to rank them among the greatest teams of all-time, but it is not too soon to wonder how high they may eventually rank and what kinds of records they may set if they are blessed with reasonable health.

In the second NBA Cup Western Conference quarterfinals matchup, the L.A. Lakers enjoyed homecourt advantage versus the San Antonio Spurs and quickly took a 13-7 first quarter lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up 39-30. The Spurs never trailed the rest of the way, and they enjoyed a double digit advantage for the entire second half, feasting on the Lakers' slow-footed, disinterested defense; the Lakers look like the kind of all-offense, no-defense team that loses in the first round of the playoffs, which is the fate that I predicted for them in my Western Conference Preview. Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (30 points), rebounding (10), and assists (six). De'Aaron Fox added 20 points. Luka Doncic poured in a game-high 35 points for the Lakers while dishing for a game-high tying eight assists. Marcus Smart provided a spark off of the bench with 26 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, including 8-14 from beyond the arc. Austin Reaves had a quiet game (15 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) by the lofty standards that he has set for himself so far this season.

LeBron James added 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and a game-high tying eight assists, but his -16 plus/minus number--second worst on the team behind only Jake LaRavia's -25 in just nine minutes of (in)action--indicates how much the Lakers hemorrhaged points on defense when he was in the game. It is remarkable how statistically productive James is at 40 (soon to be 41) years old, but from the standpoint of winning a championship it is fair to ask if he is helping or hurting the Lakers; the Lakers are paying him nearly $50 million per year, and they feel compelled to use a roster spot on his son Bronny, who is averaging 2.0 ppg on .323 field goal shooting this season after averaging 2.3 ppg on .313 field goal shooting as a rookie. 

Doncic is the Lakers' best player, and the roster should be built around him, which means adding bigs who can defend, rebound, and roll to the hoop, and adding wing players who can defend. Even if James accepts being the second option behind Doncic--or possibly even the third option behind Reaves, who entered the game averaging 28.4 ppg on .509 field goal shooting--the Lakers' ability to reshape the roster will be greatly limited as long as they are paying James a max contract while also filling a roster spot with his son, who shows no signs of developing into a rotation-level player. 

In contrast, the Spurs look like a team on the rise; they have a nice mixture of veterans and young players, and they have markedly improved at both ends of the court, displaying better shot selection and more defensive focus than they did last season.

Yes, I realize that the Lakers entered this game with the second best record in the Western Conference, but the eye test reveals that they are a poor defensive team that has stacked up wins against a soft schedule; as the schedule gets tougher, they will drop in the standings. 

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked the Thunder to beat the Suns and I picked the Spurs to beat the Lakers "in a close, high scoring game." I was right about both outcomes, but I did not expect the Spurs to rout the Lakers, particularly without the services of Victor Wembanyama, who is the team's leading scorer (26.2 ppg), rebounder (12.9 rpg), and shot blocker (3.6 bpg); the Spurs' ability to win on the road without Wembanyama speaks volumes about their growth, particularly considering that they had a 14-27 road record last season.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game and face the winner of Saturday's other semifinals matchup featuring New York versus Orlando, the teams that won the NBA Cup Eastern Conference quarterfinals games on Tuesday.  

Labels: Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

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How Good Will the Wembanyama-Fox Duo Be?

The San Antonio Spurs have paired second year wunderkind Victor Wembanyama with De'Aaron Fox to form what they hope will be a championship-winning duo. The Spurs acquired Fox--who earned one All-Star selection in seven and a half seasons with the Sacramento Kings--in a three team deal that sent two-time All-Star Zach LaVine from Chicago to Sacramento along with Sidy Cissoko, three first round draft picks, and three second round draft picks. Jordan McLaughlin will join Fox in San Antonio, and Chicago will receive Zach Collins, Kevin Huerter, Tre Jones, and their own 2025 first round draft pick that they had previously traded.

As I noted in my articles about the Jimmy Butler trade and the blockbuster Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, the general rule of thumb when evaluating an NBA trade is that the team that received the best player "won," although size matters in the NBA, and age is also a factor worth considering. 

Fox is the best player in this deal; he is a 27 year old 6-3 point guard with career averages of 21.5 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.9 rpg, and 1.4 spg. He led the NBA in steals last season (2.0 spg), and he ranks eighth in steals (1.6 spg) this season. He has ranked in the top 10 in assists twice (eighth in 2019, ninth in 2021), and he has ranked in the top 10 in scoring once (eighth in 2024 with a career-high 26.6 ppg). Fox has averaged at least 23.2 ppg each season since 2021-22, including 24.9 ppg this season. Fox has made the All-NBA Team once (Third Team selection in 2023). He is a very good player, but he is not a great player; he is not a perennial All-Star, he has never come close to making the All-NBA First Team, and he has an 0-1 career playoff series record that demonstrates that he has yet to lift his team to high level postseason success.

LaVine is an often injured 6-5 swingman who will soon turn 30 years old, and who last made the All-Star team in 2022. His career averages are 20.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 4.3 apg. He is not a good defensive player and, like Fox, he has an 0-1 career playoff series record. 

The other players in this deal, like the other players in the Butler trade and the Doncic-Davis trade, were included to facilitate the deal more so than for the direct impact they are expected to have on the court. The multiple draft picks are like stock futures: they may prove to be extremely valuable, and they may prove to be worthless. Much like a smart investor maintains a diverse portfolio, a smart team does not rely too heavily on just the draft, just free agency, or just trades, but instead keeps open as many options as possible to improve the roster in terms of talent, depth, and salary cap flexibility.

Will Wembanyama and Fox win at least one championship together in San Antonio? There are many reasons to be skeptical. 

The Spurs tanked to acquire the draft rights to Wembanyama, even though it has been proven over a long period of time and a large sample size that tanking does not work. "Stat guru" executives and delusional writers have made a lot of money touting the notion that the Philadelphia 76ers "tanked to the top" despite the fact that the much-praised "Process" has not yielded more than a string of second round losses--and this season, despite having a "Big Three" featuring Joel "The Process" Embiid, Paul "Playoff P" George, and promising young guard Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers are struggling just to qualify for the playoffs. Tanking teams tend to not ever win big for a variety of reasons, including the fact that tanking promotes bad habits and creates a culture where losing is acceptable (or even desirable); bad habits and a negative culture are a lot more difficult to change than "stat gurus" are willing to admit. Embiid has been in the NBA since 2014, and he still has not developed proper training habits off of the court or a winning mentality on the court, demonstrated every time we see his out of shape body lumbering back on defense. As Jeff Van Gundy used to say during his TV commentating days: horses trot, players run. 

The Spurs went 22-60 in their tanking season and then, after drafting Wembanyama, they went 22-60 in his rookie season. They added veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes prior to this season, and they are currently 22-27--a significant improvement, but hardly even close to championship contention. Building a championship team is not like microwaving a packaged meal; "stat gurus" keep acting as if they can just throw talent together to win instantly and they keep being slapped in the face by the hard reality that great teams are not built that way. Great teams are built from the ground up by developing chemistry and by inculcating the right habits. Wembanyama is a highly productive young player who does not have a clue what it takes to win at the NBA level. Fox is a productive player entering his prime who has yet to win at the NBA level. Why should we believe that throwing those two players together is going to produce anything other that some regular season wins followed by, at best, early playoff exits? Wembanyama may be the best defensive player in the NBA, but the Spurs rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage and 19th in points allowed. It takes a well put together team to win at a high level, not just a bunch of individually talented players. 

Fox may be talented enough to push the Spurs above .500 this season, but it will be very surprising if the Spurs win a playoff series in 2025, and it will be interesting to see how long it takes for Wembanyama to notch his first playoff series win. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, and did not win a playoff series until four years after he was drafted. He has reached the second round just five times, and he is 0-5 in those series.

This is not a bad trade for the Spurs. The Spurs clearly "won" this trade and they are better now than they were before. The point is that it will take more than one good trade to undo the damage done by tanking. It is interesting to contrast Pat Riley's Miami Heat--a team that refuses to tank--with the Spurs (and other tanking teams). Since LeBron James left the Heat in 2014, the Heat have reached the NBA Finals twice, participated in the playoffs in seven out of 10 seasons, and had a losing record just twice. After Tim Duncan retired in 2016, the Spurs reached the Western Conference Finals once, lost in the second round twice, and have not participated in the playoffs since 2020. The Spurs have had a losing record in each of the past five seasons, and will have to scramble to not have a losing record this season. They may not have been losing on purpose that whole time, but they also did not build a foundation for success; they just hoped to hit the Draft Lottery jackpot--and even after "winning" the Draft Lottery they are still a losing team. Gregg Popovich used to quip that he had nothing to do with the Spurs' success and that he was just lucky to have had Tim Duncan for so long, but that joke probably seems less funny to Spurs' fans now than it did during their championship-winning glory days. Which fan base has had more fun and received more value in the past decade or so--Miami or San Antonio? Tanking is just awful for the league, for its fans, and for its media partners. At any give time, it seems that at least five or six of the NBA's 30 teams are losing on purpose, and that makes the product almost unwatchable. It was hilarious to hear J.J. Redick lambasting Charles Barkley for telling the truth that is plain for anyone to see: the NBA has a lot of bad teams playing bad basketball.

The other two teams in this trade seem to be adrift, at best. Mike Brown brought some stability to the Kings--leading the team to the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason appearance since 2006--but now that the Kings fired him and traded their leading scorer (Fox) they seem to be heading back toward their comfort zone of dysfunction. The Kings enjoyed a brief 11-4 honeymoon under new Coach Doug Christie before losing four of their last five games. LaVine has never been part of an NBA team that won at a high level, and that is unlikely to change now.

As for the Bulls, it is not clear if they are intentionally tanking or just perpetually clueless, but they have reached the playoffs just once since 2017 and they have not won a playoff series since 2015. Unloading LaVine's burdensome contract is good from a salary cap flexibility standpoint, but in the short run (and for the foreseeable future) they have less talent and will have to scrap and claw just to get into the Play-In Tournament.

Labels: Chicago Bulls, De'Aaron Fox, Jordan McLaughlin, Kevin Huerter, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Sidy Cissoko, tanking, Tre Jones, Zach Collins, Zach LaVine

posted by David Friedman @ 12:56 PM

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Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed

The L.A. Lakers built an 18 point third quarter lead before surviving a furious New Orleans comeback to defeat the Pelicans 110-106 in the first game of the 2024 Play-In Tournament and secure the seventh seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (23 points) and assists (nine) while also grabbing nine rebounds, swiping three steals, and blocking two shots, but he shot just 6-20 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. It will be interesting to see if his poor shooting is an aberration, or if James is wearing down after playing more games (71) and logging more minutes (2504) than he has in any season since 2017-18. D'Angelo Russell scored 21 points and had a game-best +16 plus/minus number. Anthony Davis added 20 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. After the game, Lakers coach Darvin Ham mocked what he called the "insane asylum sources" that had declared that the Lakers should lose this game on purpose to avoid a playoff matchup with Denver.

Zion Williamson poured in a game-high 40 points on 17-27 field goal shooting while also snaring 11 rebounds. Williamson's floater tied the score at 95 with 3:19 remaining in the fourth quarter, but he came up lame after the play and was not able to play the closing minutes; he apparently suffered a left hamstring injury, the extent of which will not be known until after further examination. The Pelicans tied the score twice more down the stretch but never took the lead, and the Lakers sealed the win by making four straight free throws in the final 10 seconds. No Pelican other than Williamson scored more than 12 points in a game that was there for the taking if Brandon Ingram (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, -16 plus/minus number), C.J. McCollum (nine points on 4-15 field goal shooting, -17), or Jonas Valanciunas (four points on 1-7 field goal shooting, -13) had just been a little subpar instead of abysmal. The Pelicans outrebounded the Lakers 50-41, and outscored them in the paint 62-36 as the Lakers shot just .417 from the field. Looking at the boxscore, it is difficult to understand how the Lakers won, but they did enjoy advantages in three point field goals made (14-9) and free throws made (26-11), although the latter number is a bit skewed because the Pelicans had to intentionally foul near the end of the game.

Since joining the L.A. Lakers in 2018, LeBron James has led the team to one NBA title (2020) and one NBA Cup title (2024), but the Lakers have also failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference standings for each of the past four seasons. They lost in the first round in 2021, missed the playoffs entirely in 2022, and enjoyed a fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals after surviving the Play-In Tournament. Nevertheless, one can expect that the LeBron James p.r. machine will crank into high gear during the next few days, trying to convince the world that it is a great feat for James and Davis--honored as members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--to sneak into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Even though the NBA does not officially keep statistics for the Play-In Tournament games, it will not be too long before someone declares that James is the greatest player in Play-In Tournament history (without questioning why a player of his historical stature annually appears in the Play-In Tournament). Regardless of what you read or hear prior to the first game of the Lakers' first round series versus the Nuggets on Saturday night, don't be fooled into believing that barely beating a non-contending team in one game will somehow translate into winning a seven game playoff series against the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, who swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

The Pelicans will host the Sacramento Kings in a Play-Tournament game to determine the Western Conference's eighth seed. The Kings earned their way into that matchup by dismantling the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, 118-94. During the TNT pregame show, Charles Barkley said that the Kings would need a big game from Keegan Murray to make up for the absence of Malik Monk. Murray delivered a game-high 32 points as every Sacramento starter scored at least 15 points. De'Aaron Fox contributed 24 points and six assists, while Domantas Sabonis added 16 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.  One Play-In Tournament game win does not wipe out the disappointment from losing to the Warriors in a seven game first round series last year--but it is a step in the right direction for a Sacramento team that seemed to regress this season after an impressive 2023 campaign.

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 22 points for Golden State, but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He looked like an All-Star, not like a legend and a four-time NBA champion. Jonathan Kuminga (16 points) and Moses Moody (16 points) provided a lift off of the bench, but Draymond Green had little impact (12 points, six assists, three rebounds), and Klay Thompson was awful (0 points on 0-10 field goal shooting). 

The Warriors have had the Kings' number in recent years, so the fact that the Warriors could not muster up the necessary energy and effort to pull out an elimination game against the injury-depleted Kings speaks volumes. Barkley has said all season long that the Lakers and Warriors stink. The Lakers still have at least four games left in their season, but the Warriors have already had their TNT "Gone Fishin'" moment. The Warriors did not get much mileage out of having the NBA's highest payroll in 2023-24--paying $30.8 million to Chris "Greatest Leader in the NBA" Paul proved to be particularly wasteful--and one can expect some serious cost-cutting and roster upheaval in the wake of not just this loss but also a season that did not match the organization's lofty expectations.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Damontas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Keegan Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

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Pelicans Beat Kings 127-117, Advance to NBA Cup Semifinals

In the second game of TNT's NBA Cup Knockout Rounds doubleheader, the New Orleans Pelicans rallied from a 15 point first quarter deficit to defeat the Sacramento Kings 127-117. The Pelicans are 12-10 overall this season, but they are 3-0 versus the Kings. Brandon Ingram led the Pelicans with 30 points on 10-20 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds and passing for six assists. Herbert Jones added 23 points, Jonas Valanciunas had 18 points and a team-high 11 rebounds, and C.J. McCollum--in his third game back after missing 12 games due to a collapsed lung--scored 17 points and passed for a team-high seven assists. Zion Williamson had quiet boxscore numbers (10 points, six rebounds, six assists), but he posted the best plus/minus number among New Orleans' starters (+4).

De'Aaron Fox led Sacramento with 30 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field, including 1-7 from three point range. Domantas Sabonis posted a triple double, scoring 26 points on 8-12 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting while posting game-high totals in rebounds (13) and assists (10).

After the Kings jumped out to a 32-17 lead at the 4:27 mark of the first quarter it looked like the Kings would be "lighting the beam" and advancing to the NBA Cup Semifinals. Instead, the Pelicans closed the first quarter with an 18-4 run. The Pelicans took a 13 point lead in the second quarter, they were on top 69-61 at halftime, and they never trailed in the second half. Overall, they shredded the Kings' defense with 47-87 (.540) field goal shooting, including 14-31 (.452) from beyond the arc.

The Kings are trying to build on last season's first round playoff loss, the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2006. The 25 year old Fox looks like he will be a perennial All-Star, while the 27 year old Sabonis is already a three-time All-Star. The Kings were the highest scoring team in the league last season, but they have slipped to 10th this season, though their 25th ranked scoring defense has improved to 21st. They are young enough and talented enough to develop into an elite team, but they need to continue to improve defensively while maintaining a top 10 offense.

There is no doubt that the Pelicans have a lot of talent. Williamson is a two-time All-Star, Ingram made the All-Star team in 2020 and has averaged at least 22 ppg in each of the past four seasons, and McCollum has averaged at least 20 ppg for each of the past eight seasons, the longest such streak ever for a player who has never made the All-Star team. However, so far that trio has not produced a single playoff series win for the Pelicans, mainly because of their collective inability to stay healthy and available. As Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith noted during the TNT telecast, Williamson looks out of shape now; that is significant not only in terms of potentially affecting his productivity but also in terms of making the injury-prone Williamson vulnerable to suffering yet another injury. 

Ingram is an eight year veteran, and even though Williamson is just 23 years old he is already a five year veteran who has never stayed healthy for long. McCollum was durable in the first portion of his career, but he is 32 years old now and has been battling injuries for the past several seasons. The notion that these three players are going to simultaneously enjoy sustained health seems unlikely. Williamson is obviously the key, because he is the youngest and most talented of the Pelicans' three stars; he not only must get into better shape, but he must improve both his rebounding and his defense. Unfortunately, his identity as an NBA player--both in terms of conditioning and skill set limitations--seems to be established; how many injury-prone, one-way players have transformed themselves into durable two-way players?

Five years from now, it will be interesting to see how many times these two talented teams have reached the Conference Finals and NBA Finals. Sustained team success--not "advanced basketball statistics" and not marketing hype--is the most meaningful way to measure basketball greatness.

Labels: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:27 AM

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Boston Avenges Game Seven Loss, While Sacramento Falls Victim to Another Stephen Curry Masterpiece

ESPN's Friday night NBA doubleheader featured a pair of rematches of 2023 playoff series. The last time the Miami Heat visited Boston, Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 28 points to lead the Heat to a 103-84 win in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals; the last time the Golden State Warriors visited Sacramento, Stephen Curry scored 50 points as the Warriors routed the Kings 120-100 in game seven of their first round playoff series.

Some things change, and some things stay the same: the Celtics flipped the script on the Heat with a 119-111 win, while the Warriors defeated the Kings 122-114.

Boston reserves only scored eight points, but that did not matter because each Boston starter scored at least 17 points, topped by Derrick White (28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting), Jaylen Brown (27 points on 11-22 field goal shooting), and Jayson Tatum (22 points on 9-22 field goal shooting). The Celtics won the rebounding battle 55-45 as Al Horford and Jrue Holiday tied for game-high honors with 10 rebounds each. 

Miami shot just 38-89 (.427) from the field as 2023 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler scored 14 points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Tyler Herro, who missed the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals due to injury, led the Heat with 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo scored 27 points but did not shoot efficiently from the field (10-23).

The Heat jumped out to a 26-13 first quarter lead as the start of the game looked like a replay of Miami taking a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, but by the end of the first quarter Boston had trimmed the margin to 28-25. Neither team led by more than seven points again until White's three pointer at the 4:19 mark of the fourth quarter put Boston up 109-101. Kevin Love's three pointer with :59 remaining cut the Boston lead to 114-111 but then two free throws by White and a Brown three pointer closed out the scoring as Herro and Love missed long jumpers on the Heat's final two possessions.

Both teams were at full strength, but this was just game two out of 82 so how much can we learn from Boston's win? It is evident that Boston has a tremendous starting lineup, arguably the best 1-5 in the league. Boston has size at every position, and used that size to muscle the Heat by not only winning the rebounding battle decisively but also by outscoring Miami 52-36 in the paint. Miami's reserves outscored Boston's reserves 20-8, but every Heat reserve had a negative plus/minus number while every Boston reserve had a positive plus/minus number, which suggests that Boston did a good job of using a few starters with the reserves to stabilize that unit. The Heat missed Gabe Vincent, who signed with the L.A. Lakers in the offseason after making key contributions to the Heat's 2023 playoff run. The Heat need "Playoff Jimmy" to beat the Celtics, but now that the Celtics have added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis even "Playoff Jimmy" may not be enough for the Heat to win a seven game series versus the Celtics.

Meanwhile, Stephen Curry torched the Kings with 41 points on 14-19 field goal shooting. Klay Thompson had a solid game (18 points on 7-12 field goal shooting), and the undersized Warriors only lost the rebounding battle by two (41-39) despite being without the services of the injured Draymond Green. The Warriors are starting Chris Paul at least until Green returns, and Paul had a solid game (10 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, game-high 12 assists). Paul can be a very efficient player--particularly in the regular season--but he is undersized, which means that in the playoffs he can be overpowered and he is also prone to getting injured or just being worn down. If the Warriors are going to continue to trot out a starting five this small then opposing teams must make a concerted effort to attack the Warriors in the paint, because otherwise the Warriors will exploit their advantages in terms of range shooting and having multiple skilled ballhandlers.

De'Aaron Fox nearly matched Curry shot for shot, finishing with 39 points on 14-28 field goal shooting, including 22 fourth quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Domantas Sabonis had a strong game (19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, game-high 18 rebounds, team-high seven assists) but the Kings shot just 41-94 (.436) from the field after ranking first in the league in scoring (120.7 ppg) and second in the league in field goal percentage (.494) last season; the combination of scoring much less efficiently than usual without demonstrating any improvement defensively was too much for the Kings to overcome.

The first quarter was tightly contested, and the Kings led 29-24 entering the second quarter. The Kings pushed their advantage to 11 three different times only to watch the Warriors take a 60-57 lead by halftime. Jalen Rose used to quip that the "third quarter Warriors" were the NBA's 31st team, and the Warriors lived up to that moniker in this game, exploding for 39 third quarter points and leading by as much as 18 points before settling for a 99-84 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors still led by 15 at the 3:42 mark of the fourth quarter but on their next five possessions they had four turnovers and a missed Andrew Wiggins three pointer. The Kings exploited those empty possessions to cut the lead to 117-112 before Curry hit the "night, night" three pointer with 43 seconds remaining. It is worth noting that Paul--who was brought in to stabilize the Warriors and curb their tendency to be sloppy with the ball--was on the court while the Warriors collapsed, and he "contributed" one turnover and one foul during that time. The Kings missed three treys and a free throw during that sequence, so they had chances to tie the game or even take the lead.

The 1-1 Warriors are scrappy and as long as they have a highly productive Curry they will be competitive, but their small lineup is unlikely to be successful over the course of an 82 game regular season and what they hope will be an extended playoff run. It will be interesting to see if Coach Steve Kerr moves Paul to the bench after Green returns; that would be the most logical move, even though Paul has already bristled at the idea of not being a starter.

The 1-1 Kings' poor shooting versus the Warriors is an aberration, but their shoddy defense--the Warriors shot 48-87 (.552) from the field--is concerning. Mike Brown is a defensive-minded coach, but the Kings are not a defensive-minded team and that must change in order for the Kings to become a legit championship contender.

Labels: Boston Celtics, De'Aaron Fox, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 9:55 AM

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Curry Authors Masterful 50 Point Performance, Leads Warriors to Game Seven Victory in Sacramento

Stephen Curry scored 50 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and dished for six assists as the defending champion Golden State Warriors bounced back from a disastrous game six loss at home to win game seven at Sacramento 120-100 and advance to a second round playoff showdown with the L.A. Lakers, who dispatched the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. Curry shot 20-38 from the field (including 7-18 from three point range) while setting the all-time NBA record for most points in a seventh game, surpassing the 48 points Kevin Durant scored two years ago in a loss to Milwaukee. Sam Jones scored 47 points in a game seven win versus Cincinnati in 1963, a mark tied by Dominique Wilkins in a game seven loss to Boston in 1988. 

No other Warrior scored more than 17 points, and Warriors not named Curry shot 23-62 (.371) from the field. While Andrew Wiggins (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting), Klay Thompson (16 points on 4-19 field goal shooting) and most of the Warriors struggled to make shots, the biggest factor in the win other than Curry's greatness was Kevon Looney's ferocious rebounding. Looney grabbed a game-high 21 rebounds, including 11 offensive rebounds. This was his third 20-plus rebound game in the series, a feat accomplished by only two other players in franchise history: Wilt Chamberlain and Nate Thurmond.

The Kings led 58-56 at halftime, but the tide turned in the third quarter as the Warriors outscored the Kings 35-23 while winning the rebounding battle 22-9. Curry scored 14 points and Looney corralled 10 rebounds during those game-changing 12 minutes. During one sequence midway through the third quarter, Jordan Poole missed a three pointer, Gary Payton II controlled the offensive rebound, Andrew Wiggins missed a three pointer, Looney snared the offensive rebound, Wiggins missed a layup, and Looney snatched the offensive rebound and scored. The Warriors looked like a big brother taking the little brother to school in a backyard game. The Kings' Domantas Sabonis, who led the NBA in rebounding this season, finished with eight rebounds--the same number as Curry, who is a 6-3 point guard.

The final rebounding margin was 55-49 in the Warriors' favor, but when the outcome was in doubt the Warriors dominated the glass--and even though the Warriors other than Curry shot poorly, they held the Kings to 36-96 field goal shooting (.375). Sabonis led the Kings with 22 points, while De'Aaron Fox shot 5-19 from the field and only scored 16 points. Malik Monk, who excelled during the Kings' wins, had 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. 

After the game, Curry acknowledged the importance of defense not just in this game but in general during the Warriors' championship seasons: "The offense is flashy, especially the way we play our high octane offense, but our calling card has usually been our defense." It is true that the Warriors would not win games like this without playing great defense, nor would they have won four titles in the past eight years (2015, 2017, 2018, 2022) without playing great defense, but Curry's game seven performance was stunning. My basketball Pantheon only includes one player under 6-5: Jerry West, who was as dominant defensively as he was offensively, which is rare in general and almost unheard of for a player his size. I have not updated or expanded my Pantheon since I created it, and for many years I have resisted the notion that Curry is a Pantheon-level player. I never base my overall player evaluations on one game, and that is not what I am doing now; this is more a matter of one game prodding me to reevaluate the totality of Curry's work, and consider the possibility that perhaps I have underrated him. I would not take anyone out of the Pantheon to add him, but maybe the Pantheon should be expanded to include him (and a very select group of players from the past 15 years or so). I just watched a brief video about the history of "posterizing" dunks, and Julius Erving--whose aerial feats inspired the very notion of portraying dunks on posters for young fans to admire and emulate--said that when a great new dunker emerges that new phenom does not kick out his predecessors: the great new dunker joins the club. For dunkers, that club includes Wilt Chamberlain, Gus Johnson, Connie Hawkins, Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins, Kobe Bryant, and Vince Carter. 

So, I am not kicking anyone out of the Pantheon--and I am not officially changing anything without putting some more thought into this--but I am saying that I think that I have underrated Curry, based on his size, based on him taking a back seat to Kevin Durant during their back to back title runs together, and based on him not being an elite defensive player; the reality is that Curry is not only an exceptional shooter, but he finishes very well in the paint, he is an above average rebounder for his position, and he is an excellent passer. More than that, he can carry his team to a game seven road playoff win. Game seven road win used to be almost unheard of in the NBA, and they are still uncommon. The Warriors were a lousy road team during the regular season (11-30), but they won two road games in this series, and Curry was the leading scorer in both of those road wins. 

Again, this is not about one game, or about a small sample size of work devoid of any championships (that is why we are not having this discussion about Jimmy Butler, a very good player who recently had a single game playoff performance comparable to Curry's game seven). Curry has a large body of work in the regular season and in the playoffs, and even though my initial temptation is to say that the Warriors would have lost yesterday without Looney I must also concede that they would have lost without Curry; Curry's scoring, rebounding, and passing were essential in a game during which the other Warriors struggled to score. 

Curry is not better than Durant. We saw that clearly when they were on the same team--but perhaps Curry, Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo all deserve to be viewed as Pantheon level players based on their consistent excellence. 

Instead of focusing on who Curry isn't (Jordan, Bryant, James), I will try to focus more on who he is, and what he does. I have a tendency to react to hype by going in the opposite direction, and the excessive focus on Curry's "gravity"  influenced me to point out the counterarguments (namely, that there are other players who had greater "gravity" even though that term was not used to describe their play). Stephen Curry does not have more "gravity" than Michael Jordan did, but Curry is an incredible basketball player who should be appreciated in his own right.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Golden State Warriors, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 3:28 PM

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Kings Rout Warriors at Golden State, Can Advance to Second Round With Game Seven Home Win

Malik Monk (28 points, seven rebounds, and four assists) and De'Aaron Fox (26 points, game-high 11 assists, and four rebounds) powered the Sacramento Kings to a 118-99 game six road win versus the defending champion Golden State Warriors. The Kings shot just .404 from the field, but they outscored the Warriors 44-36 in the paint while also winning the rebounding battle 53-42. Keegan Murray (team-high 12 rebounds) and Domantas Sabonis (11 rebounds) combined to shoot just 8-29 from the field but their work on the boards played a major role in the win. The Warriors shot even worse than the Kings (.372), with both Splash Brothers way off of the mark: Stephen Curry scored a game-high 29 points but shot just 9-21 from the field, and Klay Thompson added 22 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. The only other Warrior to score in double figures, Andrew Wiggins, managed just 13 points on 5-13 field goal shooting.

We have been told that the Warriors' championship experience will be the decisive factor in this series, but this is not 2015 or 2018 or even 2022. This is 2023, and these Warriors went 44-38 during the regular season, including 11-30 on the road, a mark usually posted by Draft Lottery teams. Unless/until they prove otherwise, this version of the Warriors is not a great team, and if they had not barely survived a series of crunch time blunders in game four their season would be over now. The Warriors scored less than 100 points just three times in 82 regular season games, but their offense fell apart in game six when they had an opportunity to eliminate the Kings.

A victory by the home team in game seven may be a step toward curbing load management and the general decline in regular season intensity: by taking the regular season seriously, the Kings earned the right to have game seven at home.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Golden State Warriors, Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 12:37 AM

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Warriors Survive Late Blunders to Beat Kings, Tie Series at 2-2

The Golden State Warriors beat the Sacramento Kings 126-125 to tie their first round playoff series at 2-2 and set up a climactic game five at Sacramento. Game five winners in a 2-2 NBA playoff series win the series 81.9% of the time. 

Stephen Curry led the Warriors with 32 points, Klay Thompson added 26 points, and Jordan Poole--starting in place of Draymond Green--scored 22 points. The Warriors won game three without the suspended Green, and Green voluntarily ceded his starting role--at least for one game--to Poole, who performed well as a starter during Green's absence. Green scored 12 points on abysmal 3-14 field goal shooting, but he contributed to the win with his strong defense plus 10 rebounds and a team-high seven assists. 

It was interesting to see Curry and Green celebrate this win on the court as if they had just won an NBA title. Curry and Green have each won four NBA championships, so a first round home win should not be a big deal to them.

De'Aaron Fox scored a game-high 38 points, led the Kings with nine rebounds, and dished for five assists. Keegan Murray added 23 points and seven rebounds, Malik Monk scored 16 points but shot just 5-14 from the field, and Domantas Sabonis contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high eight assists.

In the past week, the Kings have received formal recognition for their excellent season. Fox won the Jerry West NBA Clutch Player of the Year Award. Fox is an explosive scorer who also rebounds and passes well, and he shows all of the signs of being a superstar in the making. After averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 4.2 rpg during the regular season, he is averaging 31.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, and 6.0 rpg in the playoffs.

Also, Mike Brown won his second Red Auerbach Coach of the Year Award. Brown, who previously won the award in 2009 while coaching the Cleveland Cavaliers, received all 100 media votes this time, becoming the first unanimous winner. Brown is an outstanding coach who has previously been unfairly criticized by media members who do not understand much about NBA coaching. It is surprising but refreshing that all of the media voters selected Brown for this much-deserved honor.

This series is often portrayed as a contrast between an inexperienced squad (the Kings) and an experienced squad (the Warriors)--but in game four the Warriors were fortunate to survive late game blunders that one might not expect to see from the reigning NBA champions. In a back and forth game featuring 19 lead changes during which the Kings led by as many as nine points and the Warriors led by as many as 10 points, the outcome hung in the balance when Curry called a timeout with 42.4 seconds remaining in regulation and the Warriors leading, 126-121. The Warriors had just expended their last timeout on a failed coach's challenge, so Curry's mistake resulted in the Kings receiving a free throw attempt and possession of the ball. Monk drained the free throw, and then Fox hit a three pointer after the Kings rebounded Harrison Barnes' missed three pointer. Then, with a chance to run down the clock and force the Kings to foul, Curry missed a runner in the lane. The Kings rebounded the miss, called timeout with 10.5 seconds left, and now had a great opportunity to win the game. During the ensuing possession, the Warriors trapped Fox, content to let any of his teammates take the clutch shot. Barnes missed a three pointer as time expired.

It is understandable that the outcome of each game shapes the short-term narrative, but anyone watching this series without knowing the relative experience levels of both teams would have trouble discerning which team is comprised of supposedly poised veterans and which team is comprised of supposedly frazzled young players. Both teams play at a fast pace and, consequently, make some mistakes, but if Barnes had made the last shot in game four then the narrative would focus on how Curry and the Warriors blew a five point lead in the final minute; the fact that the Warriors narrowly survived does not magically transform them into a very poised team compared to the Kings, who in fact showed much poise to stay in contention until the final buzzer sounded.

Over the course of the entire season, the Kings were the more composed, more poised, and more consistent team. That is why the Kings enjoy homecourt advantage in this series. The Kings won the first two games of this series at home, and they do not have to win a road game to advance; the Warriors, who went 11-30 on the road during the regular season, must win at least one road game to reach the second round.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:22 PM

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Kings Take 2-0 Lead Versus Warriors, Draymond Green Makes Another Dirty Play

If you watch people and teams objectively, they will show and tell you who they are.

The Sacramento Kings proved to be one of the NBA's best teams throughout the regular season; meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors went 11-30 on the road, ranked last in the league in turnovers, and ranked 28th in the league in fouls committed. Draymond Green--who earned a reputation as a dirty player by repeatedly striking opposing players below the belt and above the neck before topping himself by punching out his teammate Jordan Poole during practice before this season started--led Golden State's foul parade this season and he also ranked second in the league with 17 technical fouls.

What should one expect in a Kings-Warriors playoff series? One should expect the Kings to play well, and the Warriors to play poorly on the road while turning the ball over and committing a lot of fouls. 

The Kings won game one, 126-123, on Saturday night, and the Kings won game two, 114-106, last night. The Warriors committed 51 fouls and 35 turnovers in those two games, while the Kings committed 48 fouls and 27 turnovers.

With 7:03 remaining in the fourth quarter of game two and the Kings leading 91-87, Green and Domantas Sabonis became tangled up while battling for a rebound. Sabonis fell to the floor and he grabbed Green's foot. Green then stomped on Sabonis twice while Sabonis was on the floor. As Sabonis writhed in pain, Green yelled obscenities to the Sacramento fans and waved his arms in the air to show how proud he was of his dirty play. 

The referees discussed the sequence before issuing a technical foul to Sabonis for the foot grab and a flagrant foul 2 (with automatic ejection) to Green for the stomping. After the game, an unrepentant Green took no responsibility for his actions and blamed Sabonis for everything. Green has a penchant for striking people when they are not looking or when they are lying on the ground. He fancies himself to be a tough guy, but I cannot recall ever seeing him square up face to face and challenge a player who is his size or bigger; he likes to pick on people who are smaller, or who are in compromised positions.

I do not condone fighting in basketball games, but it would be fascinating to teleport Green to earlier eras when fighting in NBA games was much more tolerated. I rather doubt that Green would square off against Charles Oakley, Maurice Lucas, or Willis Reed--and I think that Green would get a most unpleasant surprise if he believed that smaller guys like Alvin Robertson or Calvin Murphy would be easy targets for bullying. Green is a classic "hold me back" guy who runs his mouth, takes cheap shots, and knows that he is not going to have to fight a grown man on even terms.

Green appears to have serious emotional issues that negatively impact his behavior, and hurt his team's chances to win. I have no patience for anyone who suggests that the Warriors would have won the 2016 NBA Finals if Green had not been suspended for game five, and I have no patience for anyone who suggests that the Warriors would have beaten the Kings last night if Green had not been ejected. Being suspended and ejected is an essential part of who Green is. If you posit that Green's defense, rebounding, and passing help the Warriors to win, then you also have to accept that Green's emotional volatility damages the Warriors and hurts their winning chances. The good, the bad, and the ugly are all part of the Draymond Green experience.

Every player is defined by certain characteristics. Michael Jordan came up big in clutch moments. James Harden chokes in clutch moments. Draymond Green lacks self control and gets tossed from games. When players do the things that they have repeatedly done before, it is foolish to act surprised or to say that the outcome would have been different if the players had not done the things that they typically do. Yes, the Chicago Bulls would have won fewer championships if Jordan had not been a dominant player--but Jordan was a dominant player throughout his career. Yes, James Harden's teams would have been more successful if he had not choked so much (or if he had accepted a lesser role behind players who do not choke)--but Harden has been a playoff choker throughout his career. Yes, Draymond Green's teams might have won more games if he had not been ejected and suspended so often--but he has been a volatile player prone to being ejected and suspended throughout his career.

Green's dirty play and Golden State's predictable road collapses take nothing away from how great the Kings have been. De'Aaron Fox is averaging 31.0 ppg and 7.0 apg in this series, while Malik Monk has poured in 25.0 ppg off of the bench. Sabonis has been strong in the paint with 18.0 ppg and 12.5 rpg. Notice that Sabonis did not run his mouth after Green stomped on him, nor did Sabonis puff out his chest and do the fake "hold me back" routine; he just kept attacking the paint. Over the past few years, it has been interesting to watch American players who have grown up in one of the wealthiest countries in the world try to challenge and bully European players who they assume to be soft--but guys like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, and Domantas Sabonis have repeatedly proven that they are not soft. 

Although the Kings are in command of this series now, it should be emphasized that this season Golden State has been much better at home than on the road, so it would not be shocking if the Warriors won one or both of their two upcoming home games in this series; that would not change the reality that the Kings should be favored to win this series, because the Kings are the better, more consistent team. One cautionary note for Warriors' fans: the Kings are a very good road team, so home wins are possible but far from guaranteed for Golden State in this series.

Labels: De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 4:11 PM

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2023 NBA Playoffs Open With Quadrupleheader

It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80% of the time, as I noted when I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007. Per the NBA's 2023 Playoff Guide, since 1983-84 the game one winner has won 77.1% of all NBA playoff series, and in 2022 the game one winner won 12 out of 15 series. The reason for the importance of the first game is that--barring injuries or other major unforeseen changes during the series--the matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be decisive the rest of the way.

Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2023 NBA playoffs.

Philadelphia 121, Brooklyn 101

The 76ers should win this series without too much difficulty because they enjoy more star power, homecourt advantage, and a significant matchup advantage with MVP candidate Joel Embiid versus whoever the Nets use to attempt to check him. James Harden is a notorious playoff choke artist, but he is less likely to choke in a series like this one than in a series that requires him to do heavy lifting. 

Embiid led the 76ers with 26 points, but he shot just 7-15 from the field and only grabbed five rebounds. However, the energy that the Nets expended to limit his impact opened up the floor for Embiid's teammates. Harden finished with 23 points and a game-high 13 assists. He shot 7-13 from three point range, but just 1-8 from inside the arc. The 76ers shot 21-43 (.486) on three pointers, giving the Nets a no-win choice: watch Embiid score 40-plus points versus single coverage, or watch the 76ers fire away from deep after Embiid is trapped. The Nets are betting that Harden will not regularly shoot 7-13 from beyond the arc--and they are right--but one of many problems for the Nets is that Tyrese Maxey will also not likely continue to shoot just 3-8 from the field. In short, the individual numbers will change from game to game, but Philadelphia's overall matchup advantages will remain constant.

Mikal Bridges scored a game-high 30 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, and the Nets shot .557 from the field, but the Nets only attempted 70 field goals while the 76ers attempted 89 field goals. Philadelphia created those extra possessions because they outrebounded the Nets 38-35 while only committing nine turnovers compared to the Nets' 20 turnovers. 

If the Nets clean up their ballhandling and continue to shoot a high percentage then they could steal a game if Philadelphia's three point shooting cools off--but, as noted above, the Nets' problem from game to game is that if they fix one problematic area they are likely to have a problem in a different area. 

In short, the 76ers are the better team.

Boston 112, Atlanta 99

Boston led 29-19 by the end of the first quarter and extended that margin to 74-44 by halftime. The Celtics led by as many as 32 points in the third quarter, and the Hawks never cut the deficit to less than 12 points the rest of the way. This is the kind of dominant performance one should expect from the defending Eastern Conference champions against a mediocre team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.

Three Celtics scored at least 24 points: Jaylen Brown (29 points, 12 rebounds, three assists), Jayson Tatum (25 points, 11 rebounds, two assists), and Derrick White (24 points, five rebounds, seven assists). Coach Joe Mazzulla cut Boston's rotation to eight players, and each of his starters played at least 32 minutes, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes. Depth is important to overcome foul trouble and injuries during the course of the 82 game regular season, but in the playoffs the top teams often put their best players on the court for extended minutes and challenge the opposing team to keep up.

Dejounte Murray led the Hawks with 25 points, and he tied Clint Capela for the team lead with eight rebounds, but he shot just 10-25 from the field. The often-hyped Trae Young managed just 16 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight assists, five turnovers, and a team-worst -14 plus/minus number. This was Young's sixth playoff game since Atlanta lost in game six of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Here are Young's field goal shooting numbers in those six games: 1-12, 10-20, 6-14, 3-11, 2-12, 5-18. That adds up to a .310 field goal percentage. When I call a team's playoff run "improbable" or "fluky," and when I repeatedly insist that undersized guards who don't play much defense will not lead a team to a championship, I am not being a "hater"; I am drawing conclusions based on evidence.

Danny Ainge's old quip that the NBA playoffs are not the Tour de France--meaning that Atlanta will not start out the next game behind by 13 points--remains true, but it is equally true that matchup advantages exploited in game one will likely be exploited throughout the series.

This is the one first round series that I predicted will be a sweep, and nothing that happened in game one changed my mind about that.

New York 101, Cleveland 97

It was a treat to watch and hear Hubie Brown do the color commentary for ESPN. Unless I missed something, the last telecast that he did was over a month ago. Brown, who coached the Knicks from 1982-86, noted before the game began how big of a difference Jalen Brunson has made this season for the Knicks as a scorer, playmaker, and leader, singling out Brunson's ability to finish in the paint despite not being very tall or super athletic. Brown also emphasized New York's offensive rebounding prowess. Both observations proved to be prescient: Brunson led the Knicks with 27 points while committing just one turnover, and the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-38, including a 17-11 advantage on the offensive boards.

Julius Randle returned to action after missing five games with a sprained ankle. He shot just 7-20 from the field, but he contributed 19 points, a team-high 10 rebounds, and four assists. Josh Hart scored 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting and he tied Randle with 10 rebounds. No other Knick scored in double figures in a low scoring, grind it out game reminiscent of how the Knicks played in the 1990s.

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 38 points with eight assists, five rebounds, and just two turnovers, but he did not receive quite enough help from his teammates. Darius Garland added 17 points, but he had five turnovers and just one assist. Jarret Allen had a solid game (14 points, 14 rebounds, four assists), but the Cavaliers need more from Evan Mobley (eight points on 4-13 field goal shooting, 11 rebounds). Neither Allen nor Mobley blocked a shot, and the entire Cleveland team blocked just two shots.

The Cavaliers started slowly on their homecourt, trailing 30-24 by the end of the first quarter. Foul trouble limited Brunson's first half playing time to just nine minutes, or else the Knicks may have led by more than just 50-45 at halftime. Brunson scored 21 points in 20 minutes in the second half.

The Cavaliers briefly took a one point lead in the fourth quarter, and they outscored the Knicks 27-23 in the final stanza, but they never quite made up for their slow start. The NBA is often a first quarter league--and not a fourth quarter league, as many people assert--and the tone for a playoff series is often set in game one. However, I think that in this particular series it would be premature to say that the Cavaliers are in trouble. The Knicks went just 23-18 at home during the regular season, so assuming that the Cavaliers take care of business in Cleveland in game two this series will very likely stand at 2-2 after two games are played in New York. For that to happen, the Cavaliers must do a better job of exploiting their size by playing aggressively--and efficiently--in the paint at both ends of the court.

Sacramento 126, Golden State 123

Many commentators and self-proclaimed experts have probably not seen the Kings play or understood how good this team really is, but a national TV audience got a taste in game one as the Kings withstood every punch from the reigning NBA champions. De'Aaron Fox had one of the best playoff debuts in NBA history, pouring in a game-high 38 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs--to outduel Stephen Curry, who scored 30 points in defeat. Malik Monk (32 points) teamed up with Fox to give Sacramento their version of the "Splash Brothers," as they outscored Curry and Klay Thompson, 70-51. Domantas Sabonis struggled with his shot, scoring just 12 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, but the league's leading rebounder dominated the paint with a game-high 16 rebounds as the Kings outrebounded the Warriors, 50-41. The Kings outscored the Warriors in the paint, 60-44. News flash: this year's Warriors are an undersized team that does not defend particularly well and struggles to win on the road. Assuming that the Warriors will get bigger, defend better, and start winning on the road in the playoffs after 82 games of evidence suggesting otherwise is wishful thinking, not analytical thinking.

In the first half, it looked like the Kings might die from a thousand cuts as they appeared bewildered by the challenge of simultaneously guarding the three point line and preventing backdoor cuts--but the Kings found their footing in the second half, outscoring the Warriors 71-62 as Fox (29 points) and Monk (17 points) eviscerated Golden State's defense.

Both teams struggle defensively, so expect this series to feature many high scoring shootouts. The Warriors will fight to the end; it would be very surprising to see them collapse like the Phoenix Suns did in last year's playoffs, but it should not surprise anyone who has been paying attention to see the Kings eliminate the Warriors in the first round.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Trae Young

posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM

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