20 Second Timeout

Oklahoma City Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#1 Oklahoma City (64-18) vs. #4 L.A. Lakers (53-29) 

Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0 

L.A. can win if…the Lakers win the possession game by cutting down on turnovers and by outrebounding the Thunder. The Lakers rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams in turnovers committed, while the Thunder rank first, and the Thunder also rank first in turnover differential; the Thunder excel at both taking the ball away on defense (ranking third in the playoffs in steals per game) and protecting the ball on offense, while the Lakers do not protect the ball well and are mediocre at best at taking the ball away (ranking ninth in steals per game). The Thunder rank fifth in the playoffs in rebounding differential (3.8), while the Lakers rank eighth (0.0). If the Lakers do not significantly improve in the possession game then they will have to shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field or make a lot of free throws just to keep the games close.

The Lakers were correctly considered underdogs in the first round versus the fifth seeded Houston Rockets because injuries kept Luka Doncic out for the entire series (grade 2 left hamstring strain) and sidelined Austin Reaves until game five (grade 2 oblique strain)--but that was before Kevin Durant was a late scratch for game one with a right knee contusion. Durant, who averaged 26.0 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in 78 regular season games, played in just one game as the Lakers eliminated the Rockets in six games; he scored 23 points on 7-12 field goal shooting in game two, which the Lakers won, 101-94, as the other Rockets scored 71 points on 29-77 (.377) field goal shooting. Durant sprained his ankle during game two and did not play again in the series, so it is not surprising that the Rockets rank 15th in playoff scoring (98.7 ppg), ahead of only the Orlando Magic--who should be called the -rland- Magic (i.e., they have no "O") after averaging 98.3 ppg, including scoring just 19 points in the second half of their 93-79 game six loss to the Detroit Pistons while missing 27 of their final 28 field goal attempts. Only Orlando's record-setting offensive futility kept the Rockets from having the least productive offense in the 2026 NBA playoffs.

While it is fair to say to some extent that the bricklaying Rockets were the architects of their own demise, the Lakers deserve some credit, too, starting with LeBron James. It is not hyperbole to say that James is the greatest 41 year old NBA player ever. He averaged 20.9 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.1 rpg during the regular season, and his only concession to age is that he missed 22 games. James improved those numbers to 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, and 7.2 rpg versus the Rockets, leading the Lakers in scoring and assists while ranking second in rebounding. 

Reaves averaged 18.5 ppg and 4.0 apg in two games, but he shot just .367 from the field. Rui Hachimura increased his scoring from 11.5 ppg in the regular season to 15.8 ppg versus the Rockets, and he led the Lakers with 17 three point field goals while shooting .586 from beyond the arc. Deandre Ayton grumbled about his role during the season, averaging 12.5 ppg and a team-high 8.0 rpg, and he posted similar numbers versus the Rockets (11.8 ppg, team-high 10.8 rpg). Marcus Smart (14.7 ppg, 13 three point field goals made, .486 3FG%) was a key contributor at both ends of the court versus the Rockets after scoring just 9.3 ppg with a .331 3FG% during the regular season.

Oklahoma City will win because...Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player in the series and because the Thunder's depth and defensive tenacity will overwhelm the Lakers.

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.8 ppg, 8.0 apg, and 3.8 rpg with shooting splits of .551/.313/.898 during the first round as the Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns. Chet Holmgren averaged 17.3 ppg, a team-high 8.5 rpg, and a team-high 2.0 bpg versus the Suns. Isaiah Hartenstein provided power in the paint with 11.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg, and a team-high .714 FG%. Jalen Williams averaged 20.5 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg in two games versus the Suns but will miss at least the start of this series due to a grade 1 left hamstring strain. Ajay Mitchell picked up some of the scoring slack by averaging 15.0 ppg, but he shot just .364 from the field.

The Thunder are the highest scoring team in the playoffs (122.8 ppg), and their 17.3 ppg scoring differential is second behind the Knicks (17.5 ppg), whose numbers are a bit distorted by their historic 140-89 game six rout of the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder also rank second in the playoffs behind the Knicks in field goal percentage (.487).

Neither the offense that the Lakers ran against the Rockets nor the defense that they played against the Rockets will be nearly good enough to contend with the Thunder.  

Other things to consider: The Thunder have been the class of the NBA for the past two years, posting the best regular season record in back to back seasons and capturing the NBA title last season. Although the Thunder were pushed to seven games in two of their four playoff series last year, they did not falter under pressure and became the second youngest team to win an NBA title.

Gilgeous-Alexander swept the MVP awards last season (regular season, Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals), and he could very well match that feat this season. 

In contrast, this is just the second time that the Lakers advanced past the first round since 2020, when they won the "bubble title." The Lakers spent most of this season relying on their high octane offense fueled by the scoring/playmaking prowess of Doncic, Reaves, and James--who for the first time in his career willingly accepted not just a secondary role but a tertiary role. Without Doncic and with Reaves limited, the Lakers relied on James to run the offense; the Lakers fell from 116.3 ppg on a league-leading .502 field goal percentage in the regular season to 101.2 ppg on .474 field goal shooting versus the Durant-less and offensively challenged Rockets, but the Thunder both score and defend much better than the Rockets. If Doncic were available and at full strength, maybe the Lakers could steal a game or two, but this version of the Lakers cannot keep pace with the Thunder, even if Jalen Williams does not play.

Oklahoma City will defeat L.A. in four games.

Labels: Austin Reaves, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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Russell Westbrook is One of the Few Brights Spots in an Otherwise Dark Season for the Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook has been one of the few bright spots and high energy performers during a dark and dismal season for the Sacramento Kings. He had a team-high tying 21 points on 9-16 field goal shooting along with a game-high 11 assists, six rebounds, and just one turnover in Sacramento's 128-123 November 22 win versus the 12-4 Denver Nuggets. Westbrook scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, including a clutch fadeaway jumper with 36.1 seconds remaining to put the Kings up, 123-117. He also had three rebounds, two assists, no turnovers, and a +6 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and he was the only player on either team who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes.

Westbrook had a -13 plus/minus number overall for that game, and his plus/minus number for the season (through November 28, 2025) is -137, but the context for his season plus/minus is that the team's three big name starters--Domantas Sabonis (-159), DeMar DeRozan (-185), and Zach LaVine (-212)--have the team's three worst plus/minus numbers. It is fair to infer that their desultory performances are dragging down Westbrook's plus/minus number during the time that he shares the court with them, while Westbrook is providing a spark when he plays in other lineups.

The larger point regarding Westbrook is that it appears that Sacramento was the only team interested in signing him during the offseason, and he signed a signed a non-guaranteed veteran minimum one year deal for $3.6 million to join the Kings. Per HoopsHype, Westbrook's 2025 contract is tied for 299th in the NBA. Earlier this season, Westbrook extended his career triple double record while also breaking Jason Kidd's ABA/NBA career record for most rebounds by a guard. Through 19 games (he has started 13 of those games), Westbrook is averaging 14.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 6.4 apg. His rebounding average is his highest since 2021-22, and his three point field goal percentage (.390) is a career-high. Among players who have participated in at least 12 games, Westbrook ranks third on the Kings in scoring, first in rebounding, and first in assists. Signing Westbrook is one of the few smart decisions made by an otherwise dysfunctional franchise that should not have fired coach Mike Brown and should not have attempted to build "Chicago Bulls West" with LaVine and DeRozan.

There are several teams lacking solid point guard play that are regretting--or should be regretting--not signing Westbrook, particularly considering that he was available at a bargain basement price. For example, the disappointing Dallas Mavericks rank 27th in field goal percentage, 28th in the NBA in assists, and 29th in scoring in no small part because they do not have a competent point guard on the roster; their point guard situation is so desperate that coach Jason Kidd--one of the NBA's all-time greatest point guards and thus someone who understands the requirements to play that position well--has resorted to playing rookie forward Cooper Flagg at point guard rather than rely too heavily on the nominal point guards on the roster, including the inconsistent D'Angelo Russell. It should be obvious to any qualified basketball talent evaluator that Westbrook is a better player and better point guard than Russell, but Dallas' recently fired chief talent evaluator Nico Harrison thought that trading prime Luka Doncic was a great idea, so it is not surprising that he chose D'Angelo Russell over Russell Westbrook.

Labels: D'Angelo Russell, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Luka Doncic, Russell Westbrook, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 9:12 AM

3 comments

LeBron James is the First Player to Participate in 23 NBA Seasons

LeBron James is entering uncharted territory by participating in his 23rd NBA season, breaking the record of 22 seasons set by Vince Carter. Last season, James played at an unprecedented level considering his age (40 years old) and experience (22 NBA seasons), averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg (sixth in the league), and 7.8 rpg. He made the All-NBA Second Team, and he finished sixth in regular season MVP voting. James' L.A. Lakers finished third in the Western Conference regular season standings before being upset 4-1 by the sixth seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round.

James missed the first 14 games of the 2025-26 season because of sciatica, and he has now played two games, both versus the woeful Utah Jazz. 

In his first game of the season, James scored 11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high 12 assists and grabbing three rebounds as the L.A. Lakers defeated the 5-9 Jazz, 140-126. He had a +1 plus/minus number while every other Lakers' starter had a plus/minus number of at least +10. Luka Doncic scored a game-high 37 points on 11-22 field goal shooting while dishing 10 assists with a +10 plus/minus number in 34 minutes. Austin Reaves had 26 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, one assist, and a +10 plus/minus number in 33 minutes. 

In his second game of the season, James had 17 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, and six assists as the Lakers defeated the 5-11 Utah Jazz, 108-106. James had a team-worst -14 plus/minus number in 34 minutes. Doncic scored a game-high 33 points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and passed for a game-high tying eight assists in 40 minutes while sporting a gaudy game-high + 33 plus/minus number. Reaves had 22 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, and a -1 plus/minus number.

This is clearly a small sample size of games from which no definitive conclusions should be drawn. It is worth noting that in his last game prior to this season, James had a team-worst -14 plus/minus number as the Timberwolves eliminated the Lakers, 103-96. James had five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter of that game. 

For most of his career, James has been the focal point for his team and he has dominated the ball while other players--even future Hall of Famers--sublimated their games and accepted having reduced touches. That formula is not in the best interest of the 2025-26 Lakers, because Doncic is a future Hall of Famer who is just entering his prime. Doncic is in the best shape of his life, and he has been shattering records with his quick start to this season. Doncic should be the Lakers' primary scorer and primary ballhandler/decision maker. Reaves is well-suited to being a secondary scorer/secondary playmaker. 

Where does that leave James? Based on James' age, health, and current skill set level, he should be the third option. Reducing James' offensive load not only diversifies the Lakers' attack by enabling Doncic and Reaves to shine, but it also gives James the opportunity to be more impactful defensively. Offense is not a problem for the Lakers, but they need to play better defense, and if James wants too add to his championship ring collection then he will focus on elevating the Lakers' defense both by example and by mentoring the team's younger players. Older players tend to be injury-prone, and tend to not be as engaged or effective defensively. The Lakers need for James to be healthy and to be a net positive defensively; reducing his offensive workload is the best way to keep James healthy and to help him have enough energy to be effective defensively. James has carefully crafted a reputation for being unselfish while having a high basketball IQ; the unselfish, smart way for him to play now is let Doncic and Reaves cook offensively while shoring up the Lakers' defense.

Labels: Austin Reaves, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 3:09 AM

6 comments

Gobert Dominates Paint as Timberwolves Eliminate Lakers

Facing elimination at home, the favored L.A. Lakers fell behind 6-0 to the more physical and more focused Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves led most of the way en route to a 103-96 game five win in L.A. that left Lakers' fans with more questions than answers about their highly touted team. The Timberwolves built their biggest lead of the game, 29-15, late in the first quarter, but led by single digits for most of the game; in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves never led by more than eight points or trailed by more than one point, but despite keeping the margin within a three possession band the Lakers could not save their season.

The Timberwolves outscored the Lakers 56-40 in the paint while outrebounding the Lakers 54-37. Rudy Gobert scored a team-high 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 24 rebounds and blocking two shots. Former Laker Julius Randle contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Anthony Edwards scored 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting (including 0-10 from three point range), but he had 11 rebounds, a team-high eight assists, and a team-high three steals.

Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points and dished for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 7-18 from the field, and with the game up for grabs he scored just three points in the fourth quarter. Rui Hachimura added 23 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. LeBron James finished with 22 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. James scored five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. 

During this series, the Timberwolves outscored the Lakers in the paint in four of the five games; not surprisingly, the Lakers' only win (in game two) was the only game when the Lakers held their own in the paint, tying the Timberwolves 46-46 in a 94-85 victory. Another key statistic for this series is fourth quarter scoring; although the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by small margins in the first quarter and the third quarter, in the fourth quarter they averaged 17.0 ppg, shot just .293 from the field, and got outscored by 8.4 ppg. 

I will say more about the the Timberwolves in my preview of their second round series, but this is a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Lakers.

The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.

The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.

Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.

After the Lakers made the stunning trade with Dallas to acquire Doncic in exchange for Anthony Davis, I wrote, "Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs." I should have heeded my own words when I made my 2025 Playoff Predictions, but I somehow convinced myself that the Lakers would squeak by the Timberwolves before losing in the second round. The overarching point of my initial analysis was correct: the Lakers will not be a legit championship contender until they beef up their frontcourt, much like the Mavericks did last season by adding Daniel Gafford. The Lakers have a multi-year timeframe to build around the 26 year old Doncic, who is already one of the NBA's five best players and should be just entering his prime years.

It is not clear how the Lakers can reconcile Luka Doncic's long term timeframe with the year to year timeframe of 40 year old LeBron James. In The Paradox of LeBron James, I wrote, "LeBron James baffles and mystifies me more than any other great player who I have observed and/or studied, so it is only fitting that as he enters the final stage of his career he continues to be baffling and mystifying." James is without question one of the greatest players of all-time; anyone who suggests otherwise is biased, foolish, or both. James is also without question the most productive 40 year old player in NBA history. This season, he averaged 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg while shooting .513 from the field; those would be career-best numbers for many Hall of Famers, but overall this was a below average season for James. It is not reasonable to blame a 40 year old for not being able to lead a team on a deep playoff run when no other 40 year old has been able to do that--but James is not being paid like a 40 year old player who cannot carry a team: he is the 14th highest paid player in the NBA. 

How can the Lakers methodically build around Doncic with the idea of having sustained long term success while at the same time dealing with James on a year to year basis as one of the league's highest paid players? This is not just about salary cap space, either. With the exception of his four years in Miami--the most successful four years of his career from the standpoint of team success--James runs the show when he joins a team, meaning that he picks the coach and he picks the roster; that is why his former podcast partner Redick is the coach, and that is why the Lakers drafted his son Bronny instead of filling that roster spot with a veteran player who could contribute now. One would expect that a team with a highly paid 40 year old would be in win now mode, hiring an experienced championship-level coach and stacking the roster with proven veterans, but this particular 40 year old has different ideas. 

The reality is that even though James is more productive than any player his age has ever been and even though he is more productive right now than all but a handful of current players, the Lakers are not going to win another title as long as he is not only on the team but running the show. In James' seven years with the Lakers, they won one "bubble title" in 2020 (James' second year in L.A.), made one fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, lost in the first round three times, and twice did not even make the playoffs. The Lakers knew that their most recent trip to the Western Conference Finals was fluky, and that is why in short order they fired the coach and remade the roster, which are not steps that management takes if that team is built for sustained success. The Lakers won the "bubble title" with a 35 year old James and a huge frontcourt that dominated the paint; now, James is five years older, his team lacks size, and his one L.A. title looks more fluky each year that he keeps getting bounced in the first round despite playing alongside first Anthony Davis and now Luka Doncic. 

It will be fascinating to see the moves that the Lakers make--and don't make--prior to next season. If they are truly thinking about how to build a perennial contender around Doncic then they will hire an experienced NBA coach, they will get rid of James, his son, and other players who are unlikely to be rotation players on a championship team for the next several years, and they will use the open salary cap space and roster spots to acquire players whose skills mesh with Doncic's. Mind you, it is almost inconceivable that the Lakers will do any of those things, which means that they have not yet shifted their thinking from "LeBron runs the show" to "This is Luka's team."

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Chris Finch, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert

posted by David Friedman @ 1:31 PM

6 comments

Tatum Outshines Doncic and James as Celtics Beat Lakers, 111-101

Less than a week ago, I cautioned that before the L.A. Lakers are deemed to be legitimate championship contenders we need to see a larger sample size of games from them--and some games pitting the Lakers versus legitimate championship contending teams. ESPN termed Saturday night's clash featuring the Lakers versus the Boston Celtics to be the game of the year. At least ESPN did not call it the game of the century, though perhaps that would have happened after the game if the Lakers had prevailed to sustain the narrative of the past few weeks that the Lakers are the best team in the league. As it turns out, the Celtics built a 22 point lead, let the Lakers back in (thank you, high variance three point shooting), and then settled for a 111-101 victory.

ESPN devoted most of its pre-game hype to the Lakers' LeBron James and Luka Doncic, but greatness is determined by what happens on the court, not what is said in ESPN's studio--and, on the court, Boston's Jayson Tatum authored a masterful performance with a game-high 40 points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. It will be interesting to see if the best player on the reigning NBA champions--a team that currently has the third best record in the league--cracks the top five in regular season MVP voting, an honor that is selected by people who often seem to be more swayed by hype and narratives than by objective evidence. Tatum does not hype himself, and he does not have a team of sycophants hyping him up; he just shows up and produces. Jaylen Brown added 31 points and six rebounds, while Al Horford made his presence felt with 14 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. 

Doncic scored a team-high 34 points, but he also had a game-high five turnovers and a game-worst -19 plus/minus number. James had 22 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high nine assists, but he had a -11 plus/minus number before sitting out the final 6:44 with a groin injury. The Celtics led 94-85 when James left the game, and the Lakers pulled to within four (99-95) on a Doncic three pointer with 4:36 remaining, but in a little over two minutes the Celtics built the margin back up to 10 and they led by double digits the rest of the way.

The Lakers were without the services of injured starting center Jaxson Hayes, but the Celtics were without the services of injured starting center Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis is a former All-Star with career averages of 19.6 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg; Hayes has career averages of 6.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, and .7 bpg while starting just 71 of his 351 career games. If both teams had been at full strength, the Celtics would have enjoyed even more matchup advantages than they did in this game, particularly in the paint. The Lakers went 20-4 in their 24 previous games, and during that run they ranked first in the NBA in paint points (44.3 per game), but the Celtics outscored the Lakers 48-38 in the paint. 

TNT's Charles Barkley famously said earlier this season "The Lakers stink," and he only backed down partially in the wake of the Lakers' recent surge, noting that the season started last October, not in January--the point being that to win a championship a team must maintain greatness for a sustained period. There are valid reasons to question whether the Lakers can win the four playoff series necessary to claim the NBA title, including their lack of size, James' age (he is the most remarkable 40-plus year old NBA player ever, but the clock is going to strike midnight sooner rather than later), and Doncic's health (he has been dogged by nagging injuries throughout this season). The Lakers' lack of size puts extra pressure on James and Doncic to rebound and defend, which in turn makes it more likely that they will get worn down and/or injured. 

James is an all-time great, but is he better than Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jayson Tatum right now? To win the 2025 NBA title, James might have to outduel all three of those players--and the strong teams that they lead in Denver, Oklahoma City, and Boston respectively. The Cleveland Cavaliers do not have a player of the caliber of Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Tatum but Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley are having All-NBA caliber seasons, and the Cavaliers have other excellent players, including Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen.

The Lakers did not look like a well-coached team when they started the season 13-9, but now the prevailing narrative is that J.J. Redick is a great coach, and any evidence to the contrary is just ignored. During the first half--before the Celtics took over the game--ESPN's Richard Jefferson listed his buddy Redick among potential Coach of the Year candidates, but omitted Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson; all Atkinson has done is lead the Cavaliers to an NBA-best 53-10 record after the Cavaliers went 48-34 last season. Unlike the Lakers, the Cavaliers have been consistently great this season.

The amazing thing about Redick's Lakers is that they never have the wrong defensive scheme or overall game plan; if the Lakers fail, it is 100% the players' fault--and if you are not sure about that, just ask Redick or his media buddies like Jefferson, and they will set you straight. On a more serious and less sarcastic note, ESPN's Bob Myers--frequently the lone voice of a reason on a studio show including "Screamin' A" Smith and Kendrick Perkins--pointed out the incredibly low percentage that the Lakers' opponents have shot on wide open attempts, which Myers called "L-U-C-K." Another word for a defense that has been successful despite giving up a slew of uncontested shots is "Unsustainable." The Celtics shot worse than they usually do from three point range and the free throw line, and they still beat the Lakers by double digits.

There is no doubt that the Lakers are better now than they were at the start of the season. The 26 year old Doncic made the All-NBA First Team each of the past five seasons with Dallas before the Lakers acquired him last month, and he is an upgrade over the 31 year old Anthony Davis (even before Davis suffered yet another injury). However, the Lakers have a lot to prove before they jump the line ahead of teams that have been great all season, including Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Boston.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, J.J. Redick, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 12:43 AM

9 comments

An Initial Assessment of the Lakers After the Doncic-Davis Trade

The L.A. Lakers' 123-100 win versus the Denver Nuggets on February 22 sparked a lot of media talk and social media chatter about the Lakers being a legitimate championship contender. Can one game or even one good stretch of games prove that a team that has not won a playoff series since 2023 and has not advanced past the first round in three of the past four seasons is an elite squad? 

The L.A. Lakers did not look like a championship contender when they started the season with a 13-9 record. On January 7, the Lakers fell to 20-16 after Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick as Kidd's shorthanded Mavericks routed Redick's Lakers. The 21-16 Mavericks looked poised to jump back into championship contention once the injured Luka Doncic returned to action--but less than a month later the Mavericks traded Doncic to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, a deal that shocked the league and may have changed the trajectories of both franchises.

The Lakers have gone 10-2 since the trade--but they went 8-3 after the loss to Dallas and before the trade, so they showed signs of improvement before acquiring Doncic. The Mavericks have gone 6-6 since the trade, but it must be emphasized that Davis suffered an adductor strain in his first game with Dallas and he has been out of the lineup since that time. The Mavericks are also without the services of injured big men Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, so the only fair grade for the post-trade Mavericks is "incomplete."  

Since the trade, the Lakers have a 6-2 record with Doncic in the lineup, and they are 4-0 without Doncic. The teams that the Lakers beat with Doncic include the Jazz, the Nuggets, the Mavericks, the Timberwolves, and the Clippers (twice). The Lakers also lost to the Jazz and the Hornets with Doncic. Other then the Nuggets, none of those teams are currently seeded higher than sixth in the Western Conference--and the Hornets have the 14th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference. The Lakers beat the Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, and Trail Blazers sans Doncic; none of those teams currently ranks higher than fifth in their conference. 

It was reasonable to assume that the Lakers sans Davis would struggle defensively and on the boards due to their relative lack of size--but the post-trade Lakers have improved in defensive field goal percentage, points allowed, and rebounding. The defensive improvement is surprising, and it remains to be seen if it is sustainable, particularly against stronger opposition; the Lakers are compensating for their lack of paint presence/shot blocking by playing with tremendous energy on the perimeter, and they are completing these frenetic defensive possessions by grabbing rebounds and then getting out on the break. LeBron James and Luka Doncic are by far the Lakers' two best rebounders: James averaged 10.5 rpg in February after averaging 7.0 rpg or less in three of the previous four months, and Doncic has averaged 8.3 rpg since joining the Lakers. For all of the talk about James being a pass first player who is a point guard, James is the same size as Hall of Fame power forward Karl Malone, and his teams have consistently been at their best when he played in the paint like a power forward. Similarly, Doncic may nominally be a point guard, but at 6-6, 230 he is the same size as a big small forward or a small power forward. It is not clear if the Lakers can win four playoff series with James as the de facto power forward and Doncic as the de facto small forward--but it is clear that without James and Doncic leading the way on the boards the Lakers would be in trouble. Offensively, James and Doncic may be sharing the "point forward" role, but the Lakers are thriving now because James and Doncic are rebounding like power forwards while also showing unexpected defensive commitment; James is playing better defensively than he has in years, and Doncic is at least paying some attention at that end of the court. James and Doncic are elite scorers and elite passers, so it is not surprising that the Lakers now have a high-powered offense--but the Lakers' playoff prospects are directly connected to defense and rebounding (which is true of any team's playoff prospects).

How significant is the Lakers' win versus the Nuggets? The Nuggets dominated the Lakers for the past several seasons, and eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, so Redick and company took great joy in that victory--but that was just one regular season win, not the four playoff victories necessary to prevail in a seven game series. The Lakers thought that they found something brilliant when they used Rui Hachimura as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic late in game one of the their 2023 playoff series, but the Nuggets still swept that series, so it is way too soon to say that the Lakers found something brilliant by fronting the post, swarming Jokic, and daring other Nuggets to make shots in a regular season game. Redick can pat himself on the back until his arm is sore, but that does not change the reality that one regular season win does not equal one playoff win, let alone four playoff wins. 

Also, it is far from clear that the 2025 Nuggets are as good as the 2024 Nuggets or the 2023 Nuggets, so even if the Lakers have found something to vanquish the Nuggets that may not matter against the league's best teams. There are seven teams other than the Lakers that currently have a winning percentage of at least .600, and the post-trade Lakers have only played one of them (the Nuggets). Until we see the Lakers not only play regular season games against those teams but also face strong competition in a seven game playoff series it is too soon to say that the Lakers are legitimate championship contenders. 

It is not surprising that the Doncic-James Lakers have a powerful offense. It is surprising that they have a good defense, even in a small sample size of games against mostly non-contending teams. It is not surprising that the Lakers with a relatively healthy Doncic are better than the Lakers with Davis (let alone an injured Davis); Doncic has been one of the NBA's top five players for the past five years, while Davis last made the All-NBA First Team in 2020. 

An objective analyst needs to see more before labeling the Lakers as a legitimate championship contender, but it is understandable why Lakers' fans are excited about their team's prospects not only for the long term with Doncic at the helm but also for the short term with Doncic and James leading the charge together. 

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:29 AM

8 comments

Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years

"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season. 

LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.

It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the 4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball. 

The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years? 

Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.

Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.

The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.

Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.

The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time. 

More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.

My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM

12 comments

Milwaukee and Oklahoma City Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 in the first of four NBA Cup quarterfinal games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 37 points on 15-24 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high four blocked shots. Damian Lillard added 28 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter--and a game-high nine assists. Antetokounmpo (game-high six turnovers) and Lillard (four turnovers) had 10 of the Bucks' 16 turnovers. Bobby Portis contributed 22 points and a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench, while former All-Star Khris Middleton--who is on a minutes restriction as he recovers from offseason surgeries on both of his ankles--had eight assists, four rebounds, and three steals in 20 scoreless minutes. 

The Magic battled throughout the game--enjoying an 11 point lead early in the second quarter, and leading 107-106 with just 40.6 seconds remaining in the game--despite being without the services of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, their two best players who are both sidelined with oblique injuries. Jalen Suggs scored a career-high 32 points and had a game-high four steals, Anthony Black (17 points) and Moritz Wagner (13 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) played well off of the bench, and Goga Bitadze made his presence felt with 12 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and four assists.

On paper, this game should have been a blowout, as the Bucks feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--Antetokounmpo and Lillard--while the Magic sans Banchero do not have a single current or former All-Star, but the Magic play hard, they play unselfishly, and they play tough defense. The Bucks committed seven turnovers in the first quarter, tying their season-high for first quarter turnovers, and enabling the Magic to sprint to a 10 point first quarter lead before settling for a 33-25 advantage at the end of the first quarter. 

The Bucks eventually outlasted the outmatched Magic, but the Bucks' shaky perimeter defense makes it difficult to picture them enjoying a deep playoff run; their guards struggle to stay in front of the opposing team's guards, which forces their big men to help and thus leave the basket unattended. They could really use a tough, defensive-minded guard like Boston's Jrue Holiday--but they traded Holiday away for Damian Lillard, who is invisible defensively.

The Bucks will be a solid playoff team as long as they have a healthy Antetokounmpo doing everything, but until they recapture the defensive identity that they used to have they will not be a title contender. The scrappy young Magic are a team on the rise--not ready to win a title this season, but building good habits and gaining valuable experience.

In the second game of TNT's doubleheader (and the second NBA Cup quarterfinal game), the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 118-104. The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder by nearly 5 rpg en route to a 4-2 series win in the 2024 playoffs, but in this game the Thunder outrebounded the Mavericks 52-44 as offseason acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein ripped down a game-high 13 rebounds.  The silky smooth Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting while also compiling eight rebounds, five assists, and three steals. All five Thunder starters scored in double figures, and the Thunder bench added 29 points. Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall led the Mavericks with 19 points each, but Dallas' top two players both had off nights: Luka Doncic finished with 16 points on 5-15 field goal shooting (though he did have 11 rebounds and five assists), and Kyrie Irving had 17 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Dereck Lively II tied Hartenstein for game-high rebounding honors, but he scored just four points as the Thunder shut down Dallas' lob game at the rim without giving up anything on the perimeter. The Thunder beat the reigning Western Conference champions despite being without the services of the injured Chet Holmgren. After the game, Gilgeous-Alexander said that it was a point of emphasis to "be the aggressor" versus a team that pushed them around in previous matchups.

During the halftime show of the Oklahoma City-Dallas game, Kenny Smith observed that the Thunder make a conscious effort to "touch the paint" even on possessions that end in three point attempts, and he said that the way that the Thunder attack the paint separates them from teams that just jack up three pointers without putting pressure on the defense.

On Wednesday night, the New York Knicks will host the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors in the last two NBA Cup quarterfinal games, with the winners facing Milwaukee and Oklahoma City respectively as the NBA Cup concludes in Las Vegas with semifinal games on Saturday and the championship game next Tuesday.

The NBA's media partners are contractually obligated to hype up the NBA Cup, but the NBA's TV ratings are down this season and it is not difficult to figure out why: the product just is not as good as it used to be for a variety of reasons, including load management, tanking, and most teams playing the same analytics-driven, cookie-cutter offense focused on jacking up as many corner three pointers as possible. I am a basketball lifer, and I don't find this brand of basketball as captivating or entertaining as basketball used to be, so I can only imagine how casual fans must feel. The NBA Cup will not solve the NBA's problems, and in some ways I would argue that it makes things worse. Last year when the NBA Cup debuted, I pointed out two flaws in the format: 

There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?

The NBA does not care about these issues because the league is desperate to come up with any gimmick to induce the players to (1) stop sitting out games and (2) play hard when they are not sitting out games. Personal pride and competitive spirit are rare commodities now, so the NBA is paying $100,000 to each player on a quarterfinal winning team, with escalating prizes for the teams that advance further in the tournament. Antetokounmpo is one of the few players who still plays hard, but it was not a good look (or sound) when--in response to a question about that $100,000 payment--he laughed and said, "The rich get richer." Many Americans are struggling to put food on the table, with the average annual personal income being just $63,214, so bragging about making more in less than three hours than most people make in a year is not funny or endearing. Not to get overly political, but it sure seems like many athletes and entertainers are Democrats who complain about how much money wealthy people make and how little they pay in taxes, but I have yet to hear of an athlete or an entertainer offering to live on $63,214 per year (or even a "mere" $630,000 per year), so perhaps they should complain less about the economic system or the taxation system that benefits them so much; if they aren't giving up their own money that they receive from guaranteed contracts that don't even require them to show up to work every day then they are in no position to speak about how people who actually have to show up to work to get paid should spend their money or be taxed.

It is unfortunate that the NBA has to stoop to providing extra cash to NBA players who are already earning generational wealth in the hope that players will play hard. It has been reported that the NBA will change the 2025 All-Star Game format to a tournament featuring three eight-player All-Star teams plus the winning team from the Rising Stars Challenge playing round robin games with a 40 point target score. Presumably, the NBA will throw still more cash at the NBA All-Stars and beg the players to at least pretend to give effort. The NBA All-Star Game descended to a new low last February as the teams combined to lauch 168 three point shots while attempting just five free throws as the Eastern Conference All-Stars routed the Western Conference All-Stars, 211-186.

Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Suggs, Luka Doncic, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahama City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:11 AM

4 comments

Edwards Outduels Irving, but Mavericks Tame Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving had a spectacular scoring showdown on Tuesday night, and when the dust cleared Edwards won the individual battle 37-35 but Irving's Dallas Mavericks beat Edwards' Minnesota Timberwolves, 120-114. The Mavericks improved to 3-1, while the Timberwolves dropped to 2-2. This was the first meeting this season between last season's Western Conference Finals combatants. The Mavericks dominated the 2024 Western Conference Finals 4-1, and the result of this game was not different even though the margin was much closer. 

Irving shot 13-23 from the field (including 6-8 from beyond the arc) while contributing five assists and four rebounds. He had just one turnover. Irving is an excellent player who had a great game, but the way that TNT's Stan Van Gundy consistently gushes about Irving is bizarre. Contrary to Van Gundy's assertion, Irving is not the best guard in the NBA, and Irving is not even the best guard on his own team: Luka Doncic is the best guard in Dallas and the NBA right now, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not far behind. Jalen Brunson is better than Irving, as are Anthony Edwards and Devin Booker, to name just three players who deservedly received more All-NBA Team votes than Irving did last season. Irving made the All-NBA Team just three times in his first 13 seasons, he has never been selected to the All-NBA First Team, and he earned Second Team honors just once--five years ago. Irving has turned out to be a good fit as Doncic's sidekick, but there is a perplexing tendency for some commentators to sound like raving fan boys when they compare Irving to other players.

Doncic filled up the boxscore (24 points, game-high eight assists, eight rebounds), but he shot just 10-27 from the field (including 1-8 on three pointers). P.J. Washington is a solid third option (17 points, eight rebounds), Daniel Gafford chipped in 14 points on 6-6 field goal shooting, and Dereck Lively II only scored four points, but he had a game-high tying nine rebounds. Klay Thompson had a quiet game (seven points and one assist in 30 minutes).

Edwards shot 12-20 from the field (including 7-13 from three point range), but he shot just 6-12 from the free throw line. He had six rebounds, three assists, and a game-high tying five turnovers. Julius Randle--acquired from the Knicks with Donte DiVincenzo in an offseason trade for Karl-Anthony Towns--added 20 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high seven assists. Randle has scored at least 20 points in three straight games after notching just 16 points in his Minnesota season opener. Naz Reid scored 14 points off of the bench, and he grabbed a game-high tying nine rebounds, but he also had a game-high tying five turnovers.

Edwards scored 24 first quarter points on 8-10 field goal shooting (including 6-8 from three point range), setting a career-high for any quarter and breaking the Target Center record for points in any quarter. Edwards is now tied with Chauncey Billups for the second highest scoring quarter in franchise history, trailing only Karl-Anthony Towns (32 points in the third quarter of his 60 point game versus the San Antonio Spurs on March 14, 2022). Edwards is a wondrous scorer who has both a smooth shooting stroke and the athletic ability to acrobatically finish in the paint. Instead of comparing him to Michael Jordan, we should just appreciate him for how great he is in his own right.

Fueled by Edwards' scoring explosion, the Timberwolves led 34-26 at the end of the first stanza--but Edwards scored zero points on 0-1 field goal shooting in the second quarter as the Mavericks outscored the Timberwolves 35-25 to lead 61-59 at intermission. Irving sizzled in the third quarter with 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, and the Mavericks won the third quarter 32-23 to push their advantage to 93-82 heading into the final stanza. Irving and the Mavericks cooled off in the final 12 minutes, but they held on to claim the win.

The Mavericks' one-two punch of Doncic and Irving is extremely difficult to match up with, particularly with some combination of Thompson, Washington, or Gafford providing supplemental scoring; the Mavericks look like a better team this season both on paper and in terms of the eye test, and that is saying a lot considering their strong 2024 playoff run. In contrast, the Timberwolves have their work cut out for them to repeat their 2024 playoff performance. The Timberwolves physically overpowered teams last season--at least until they ran into the Mavericks in the playoffs--but without Towns they are smaller and they are more reliant on 2024 Sixth Man of the Year Reid to provide scoring and rebounding; it is too soon to say that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I am not convinced that the trade made them better.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Dallas Mavericks, Julius Randle, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Minnesota Timberwolves

posted by David Friedman @ 1:35 AM

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Boston Celtics Cap Dominant Season With Dominant Win Over Dallas Mavericks

The Boston Celtics led wire to wire en route to posting a 106-88 game five win over the Dallas Mavericks to clinch an NBA record 18th championship. The Celtics notched just the third wire to wire win in an NBA Finals series-clincher since 1982, joining the 1982 L.A. Lakers and the 1986 Boston Celtics. The Celtics led by as many as 26 points in game five, and their lead never fell below 17 during the second half. 

Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 31 points on 11-24 field goal shooting while also passing for a game-high 11 assists, snaring eight rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He played a game-high 45 minutes, and he set the tone from opening tip to final buzzer while joining Walt Frazier (1970), James Worthy (1988), Michael Jordan (1991), and Stephen Curry (2017) as the only players to have at least 30 points and at least 10 assists in a Finals-clinching win.

Tatum has been much maligned by many media members--even during what turned out to be a 16-3 postseason run culminating in a championship--so it should be noted that Tatum led the Celtics in points (25.0 ppg), rebounds (9.7 rpg), and assists (6.3 apg) during the 2024 playoffs; even when Tatum is not scoring efficiently, his fingerprints are on everything that the Celtics do at both ends of the court: he is an elite defensive rebounder, he is an excellent playmaker, and even on the scoring plays for which he does not receive an assist he draws the double teams that create open shot opportunities for his teammates. He is the team's one indispensable player, and he led the Celtics in scoring (22.2 ppg), rebounding (7.8 rpg), and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals. Tatum has now won 68 career playoff games, fourth most all-time for a player younger than 27 behind only Kobe Bryant (76), Tony Parker (75), and Magic Johnson (70). Bryant, Parker, and Johnson each won three championships before the age of 27, while this championship is Tatum's first--but winning multiple championships before age 27 is the exception, not the rule, and Tatum now has won one more championship than six-time champion Michael Jordan and four-time champion LeBron James had won at age 26. 

Jaylen Brown added 21 points on 7-23 field goal shooting, plus eight assists and six rebounds. Tatum is Boston's best and most complete player, but Brown's consistency helped him to earn the 2024 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP after winning the 2024 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. Throughout the NBA Finals, Brown played excellent defense versus Luka Doncic in addition to providing his customary contributions as a scorer, rebounder, and passer. Brown averaged 20.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 5.0 apg during the NBA Finals, but he outshot Tatum from the field (.440 to .388), and that probably made the difference in the Finals MVP voting. Brown averaged 23.9 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 3.3 apg during the 2024 playoffs while shooting .516 from the field.

Jrue Holiday had 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, a team-high 11 rebounds, four assists, and a game-best +21 plus/minus number, giving the Milwaukee Bucks yet another reason to rue trading him to Portland for Damian Lillard, which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday. Holiday has been a key contributor for two of the past four NBA champions, as he helped Milwaukee capture the 2021 title.

Al Horford, a five-time All-Star in his 17 season NBA career, had nine points and nine rebounds in game five and won his first NBA title after playing 1086 regular season games and 186 playoff games. Tatum and Brown are Boston's headliners, but Horford is a highly respected veteran who is still logging impactful minutes as a 38 year old.

Kristaps Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf injury, made a sensational return to action in game one of the NBA Finals, and then suffered a lower left leg injury late in game two that forced him to miss games three and four. He scored five points in 16 minutes off of the bench in game five, and his +8 plus/minus number indicates that he had a positive impact during his limited minutes. It is likely that Porzingis will need surgery followed by months of recovery time now that the season is over.

Joe Mazzulla (35) is the youngest coach to win an NBA title since Bill Russell served as the player-coach for the 1969 Boston Celtics. Tatum is 26, and Brown is 27, so the Celtics--who have already reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight years--are in great position to contend for championships for the next several years. Their 16-3 playoff record in 2024 is the second best since the NBA went to its current postseason format of four seven game series in 2003, trailing only the 16-1 mark posted by the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry 2017 Golden State Warriors.

Luka Doncic scored a team-high 28 points on 12-25 field goal shooting, grabbed a game-high 12 rebounds, and passed for five assists. The only blemish on his stat line was a game-high seven turnovers--matching Boston's team total--and it is fair to say that this game was a microcosm of the series: Doncic played well against the league's best defense, but the Celtics had the necessary personnel and scheme to guard him one on one without fearing what any of Doncic's teammates would do. Anyone who watched the playoffs knows that Doncic played through an assortment of injuries without making excuses, and after game five he refused to discuss the extent of his injuries, concluding simply that he has to play better. There are many stars who would not have played through injuries the way that Doncic did, and many of the stars who might have played through injuries would certainly have not missed an opportunity to remind everyone just how injured they were: after being swept in the 2018 NBA Finals, LeBron James hastened to mention that he "pretty much played with a broken hand." James never clarified if his hand was actually broken or just "pretty much" broken, and it should be noted that the injury was self-inflicted: James punched a whiteboard after losing game one of that series. It is refreshing to not hear from Doncic how he "pretty much" played through whatever was ailing him.

ESPN's J.J. Redick has repeatedly called Kyrie Irving a "wizard," and Redick joins the chorus praising Irving as the most skilled ballhandler of all-time--but all of that so-called wizardry resulted in 15 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in game five, including 0 points on 0-3 field goal shooting in the first quarter as the Celtics took command and never looked back. Irving averaged 19.8 ppg on .414 field goal shooting during the series, numbers well below what the Mavericks needed from him. Irving was particularly bad during the three games played in Boston, and he candidly admitted that the pressure of playing in front of his former team's fans got the best of him. There is a difference between being a flashy ballhandler versus having the necessary ballhandling skills to defeat a championship-level defense, a distinction that Redick and many others fail to understand or acknowledge. It will be interesting to see how many media members continue to force feed us the Kyrie Irving redemption narrative while ignoring Irving's unrepentant antisemitism and the fact that his Chinese shoe company profits from utilizing slave labor.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, and this game was no exception: the Celtics led 28-18 after the first 12 minutes, and the outcome was never in serious doubt the rest of the way. Every Boston starter had at least eight rebounds as the Celtics outrebounded the Mavericks, 51-35. We are told so much about "pace and space" and "small ball," but the Celtics won this championship by exploiting their old school advantages in size, defense, and versatility that I emphasized in my series preview.

The Celtics enjoyed a dominant 2023-24 regular season, posting a 64-18 record and the fifth best point differential (11.3 ppg) of all-time, and they went 12-3 during the first three rounds of the playoffs--but many pundits tried to convince themselves (and others) that the Mavericks would beat the Celtics in the NBA Finals, and that noise became louder after Dallas routed Boston in game four. If the overrated concept of momentum had any validity, then Dallas would have won game five--or at least been competitive in game five--but this series demonstrated yet again that the NBA playoffs are about matchups, not momentum. After Dallas' game four win, ESPN's Brian Windhorst blasted Doncic--who has emerged as a perennial MVP candidate--as someone who will never win a championship without dramatically changing his game, and other ESPN talking heads spent much of the time between games four and five talking about the potential implications of a Dallas win in game five. The Mavericks did not make some brilliant game four adjustments, nor did the Celtics make some brilliant game five adjustments. The reality is that the Mavericks were content to not be swept on their court, and they did not offer much resistance in game five; the Mavericks' one win was an outlier that did not alter the fact that the Celtics enjoyed significant, decisive matchup advantages.

The Celtics earned this championship without tanking, load management, or building a "super team": they drafted two strong prospects--Brown and Tatum--and then not only patiently developed those prospects into stars, but they built around those stars while tuning out the loud voices who asserted that this duo could never lead the Celtics to a title. The Celtics' patience and wisdom has been rewarded with a championship, and it would not be surprising if the Celtics win multiple titles if they continue to demonstrate patience and wisdom.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM

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Mavericks Rout Celtics, Avoid Being Swept

The Boston Celtics' coronation will have to wait at least one more game; after taking a 3-0 NBA Finals lead, the Celtics suffered a record-setting 122-84 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. The defeat snapped Boston's franchise record 10 game playoff winning streak and prevented the Celtics from becoming the first team to ever notch a sweep in the Conference Finals and the NBA Finals in the same postseason. Luka Doncic scored a game-high 29 points in just 33 minutes on 12-26 field goal shooting while also grabbing five rebounds, passing for five assists, and committing just one turnover. Dallas Coach Jason Kidd provided a not so subtle rebuttal to Doncic’s critics by correctly noting that Doncic played the same excellent way that he usually does. Kyrie Irving had his second good game in a row at home after being a nonfactor in games one and two on the road; he finished with 21 points, six assists, and four rebounds. The Mavericks emptied their bench for the entire fourth quarter, so their other individual numbers are skewed by what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."

The Celtics shot 29-80 (.362) from the field. Jayson Tatum was their leading scorer with just 15 points on 4-10 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown (10 points on 3-12 field goal shooting) and Jrue Holiday (10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting) were their only other starters who scored in double figures. The Celtics jacked up 41 three pointers and were outscored in the paint 60-26. They missed the imposing presence of the injured Kristaps Porzingis at both ends of the court, but the larger issue is that they played like a team enjoying a three game cushion while the Mavericks played like a team facing not only elimination but humiliation.

Despite frequent talk about "clutch statistics," the reality is that the NBA is often a first quarter league--and this game is an excellent example of that, with Dallas never looking back after jumping out to a 34-21 lead in the first 12 minutes. The Mavericks led 61-35 at halftime as Doncic poured in 25 points to break Dirk Nowitzki's franchise record for points in one half of an NBA Finals game. The Mavericks had the second largest lead at the end of the third quarter in NBA Finals history (92-60), and they ended up enjoying the third largest win in NBA Finals history.

After game three, ESPN's Brian Windhorst led the charge of the bloviators bleating about how terrible Doncic is and how Doncic must dramatically alter his game to ever have a chance of leading the Mavericks to an NBA title. Doncic had 27 points on 11-27 field goal shooting in 38 minutes in game three, with six rebounds, six assists, and three turnovers--numbers that are virtually identical to his game four statistics--but much will be made of how Doncic "responded to the critics" in game four when the reality is that he has been Dallas' best player throughout this season, this postseason, and this series; the difference in game four is that he received a lot more help from his teammates at both ends of the court.

In the wake of game four, the predictable narrative is that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are failures because they did not lead the Celtics to a sweep, ignoring the fact that NBA Finals sweeps are rare: there have been just nine of them—little more than one per decade in the league’s history, and just three since 1996—with Bill Russell notching just one in his record-setting 11 championship runs, and Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Michael Jordan never achieving an NBA Finals sweep. Jordan's 1996 Chicago Bulls--arguably the greatest NBA team of all-time with Hall of Famers Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman alongside Jordan--took a 3-0 NBA Finals lead only to suffer back to back losses before winning game six. The 1982 L.A. Lakers led by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson won their first nine playoff games and enjoyed a 3-1 NBA Finals lead versus Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers before losing game five, 135-102. Abdul-Jabbar scored just six points in that loss, and Magic Johnson had 10 points on 4-9 field goal shooting with a game-high five turnovers. The Lakers won game six 114-104 to clinch their second title in three years en route to winning five championships in the 1980s.

It is funny to listen to the talking heads/screaming heads and observe how little they know about basketball history and how little they understand about the natural ebbs and flows of competition. Every possession and every game is not a referendum on a player's legacy, and to suggest otherwise is to demonstrate that one is more interested in providing clickbait than in providing intelligent analysis. The first letter in ESPN stands for "entertainment," not intelligence, and the network decided a long time ago to prioritize sound and fury over logic and reason, with Hubie Brown and Tim Legler being rare, welcome exceptions--but Brown has a reduced role now, and Legler is mostly relegated to cameo SportsCenter appearances.

Despite all of the ranting and raving to the contrary, momentum does not exist in an NBA playoff series; the Danny Ainge quip from decades ago is still apt: This is not the Tour de France. In other words, a team that wins by 38 points does not start the next game with a 38 point lead, unlike riders who win a Tour de France stage. Game five will likely have a different flow and tone, and the Celtics will likely finish off the Mavericks to clinch their record 18th NBA title.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 AM

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Celtics Deliver Knockout After Withstanding Mavericks' Initial Punch

The Dallas Mavericks opened game three of the NBA Finals by hitting the Boston Celtics with a 22-9 punch, but the Celtics delivered a knockout by posting a 106-99 win to drop the Mavericks into a 3-0 hole from which no NBA team has ever recovered. The Celtics are the fourth team to take a 3-0 lead in each of the last two playoff series in a season, joining the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers, the 1996 Chicago Bulls, and the 2017 Golden State Warriors. If the Celtics win on Friday night, they will become the first such team to sweep both series.

Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 31 points while also contributing six rebounds and five assists. Jaylen Brown had an even better all-around game (30 points, team-high eight rebounds, game-high eight assists). Tatum did most of his damage early, registering 20 first half points, while Brown poured in 24 second half points. Tatum and Brown became the first Celtics duo to each post a 30-5-5 stat line in an NBA Finals game. Derrick White was the only other Celtic who scored in double figures (16 points). Kristaps Porzingis, the MVP of game one and a major factor at both ends of the court, missed game three with a rare lower leg injury suffered late in game two of the NBA Finals. His absence was particularly felt on the boards--Dallas outrebounded Boston, 43-36--and in the paint (Dallas outscored Boston 52-36 in the paint), but the Celtics are so big and talented that they can survive without a player who would be the second option on some very good playoff teams.

Kyrie Irving finally showed up three games into a series that may only last four games, and he scored a game-high 35 points on 13-28 field goal shooting. Luka Doncic added 27 points, but he shot just 11-27 from the field before fouling out with 4:12 remaining in the fourth quarter. He also had six rebounds and a team-high six assists. Those are good boxscore numbers for most players, but they are also acceptable numbers from Boston's perspective considering that the Celtics are containing the 2024 regular season scoring champion primarily with single coverage, which limits the lob dunks and corner three pointers that are the twin cornerstones of the Mavericks' offense. P.J. Washington had 13 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and he grabbed eight rebounds. Dereck Lively II contributed 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high 13 rebounds off of the bench.

This game was even more of a roller coaster ride than usual for an NBA that has become overrun with high variance three point shooting, but the one constant is that Boston's size poses a lot of problems for Dallas. Correctly deployed size leads to high percentage shots in the paint, wide open three pointers after the opposing defense collapses into the paint, and low percentage shots for a smaller team forced to pass and shoot against long, outstretched arms. Doncic (13 points) and Irving (nine points) came out blazing in the first quarter as the Mavericks built that early 13 point lead, but Tatum countered with 13 first quarter points as Boston trimmed the margin to 31-30 by the end of the opening stanza. The second quarter was a 20-20 tie, but Boston dominated the third quarter 35-19 while shooting 13-20 (.650) from the field, including 5-11 (.455) from three point range. The three point shooting catches the eyes of casual fans and "stat gurus," but the real story is Boston's suffocating defense that limited Dallas to 8-21 (.381) field goal shooting and that has not yet given up 100 points to the Mavericks in a game. 

Just when the Celtics seemed poised to blow out the Mavericks, the Celtics lapsed into poor fourth quarter shooting (7-18, .389) and sloppy ballhandling (five turnovers) as the Mavericks wiped out what had been a 21 point deficit to trail by just one point (93-92) after Irving nailed a jumper at the 3:37 mark. The Celtics closed the game with a 13-7 run, limiting Irving to just two points in that critical stretch.

The story of this game--and this series thus far--is Boston's great defense, but there are media members who are predictably mesmerized by Irving's flashy play. J.J. Redick--who repeatedly slanders the great players of the past while shamelessly acting like Irving's biggest fan--described Irving as a "wizard" and as an "ethical scorer" who does not flop and flail. However, Redick neglected to mention that two major components of Irving's "wizardry" are palming and traveling. Irving's space-creating moves would be much more impressive if he could accomplish them within basketball's traditional rules, because the game he plays now would result in more turnovers than field goals made if Irving played in previous eras when the rules were correctly enforced.

After the game, ESPN's Brian Windhorst declared that Doncic's performance was "unacceptable" and that Dallas can never win a title until Doncic vastly improves his defense and stops complaining so much to the referees. Windhorst is correct that Doncic has reverted to being a defensive liability after playing acceptable defense in earlier playoff series, and Windhorst is also correct that Doncic's whining is not helpful--but Windhorst failed to mention that Irving's plus/minus number in game three was -3, while Doncic's plus/minus number in game three was a team-best +9. Somehow, despite Doncic's "unacceptable" performance the Mavericks won Doncic's 38 minutes by nine points and lost the 10 non-Doncic minutes by 16 points. Further, Windhorst also neglected to note that Irving scored just 28 points on 13-37 (.351) field goal shooting as Dallas fell into an 0-2 hole versus Boston with eight assists, five turnovers, and a -22 plus/minus number. Irving shot 0-8 from three point range and 2-2 from the free throw line in the first two games of this series, meaning that he was not successful from either long range or by drawing fouls.

If Irving were as great as his fans suggest, then Doncic fouling out of game three should not have been fatal. In game four of the 2000 NBA Finals, Kobe Bryant took over after Shaquille O'Neal fouled out, leading the Lakers to a 120-118 overtime win and a commanding 3-1 series lead en route to a 4-2 series win.

Windhorst's Doncic-bashing combined with white glove treatment of Irving only makes sense when you realize that LeBron James loves Kyrie Irving, as recent quotes from James show. Windhorst's media career is founded on following James around and presenting whatever narratives best suit James. Criticizing Irving would not sit well with James, so Windhorst knows the assignment. "Windy" is too busy blowing hot air to fairly assess Irving's play, let alone bother to mention Irving's unrepentant antisemitism and Irving's profiting from Chinese human rights abuses, two storylines that are very relevant not only in the big picture but in this series because Irving literally wears his passions on his head, around his neck, and on his feet; Irving openly advertises how he thinks and feels, but no one who is on James' payroll is going to ask questions that punch holes in the popular Irving redemption narrative.

In my series preview, I picked Boston to beat Dallas because the Tatum-Brown duo is superior to the Doncic-Irving duo, and because Boston has the league's best, most versatile starting lineup. Doncic is a great player, and Irving has flashes of greatness, but Tatum and Brown are bigger and more athletic while also being much more committed to playing elite defense. Regardless of what the talking heads say--and fail to say--the reality is that Tatum and Brown are getting the job done at both ends of the court, while Doncic and Irving have to battle to get off quality shots before being hunted on defense.

Even without Porzingis, the Celtics do not look like a team that will make history by blowing a 3-0 NBA Finals lead--and the Mavericks do not look like a team capable of beating the Celtics four straight times.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:24 AM

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Balanced Celtics Overcome Doncic's Triple Double to Take 2-0 Lead

Luka Doncic's seventh triple double of the 2024 NBA playoffs was not enough to prevent the Boston Celtics from beating his Dallas Mavericks 105-98 to take a 2-0 NBA Finals lead before the series shifts to Dallas for games three and four. It is a bad sign for the Mavericks that the Celtics won despite narrowly losing the rebounding battle (43-41) and shooting just 10-39 (.256) from three point range; this was the Celtics' "B" game at best, and they still nearly won by double digits. In game one, the Celtics were at their best while building the largest first quarter lead (37-20) in NBA Finals history before cruising to a 107-89 win, but in game two the Celtics demonstrated that they are so superior to the Mavericks in terms of overall size and in terms of having multiple players who are elite at both ends of the court that they have  sufficient margin for error to win without being at their best.

Boston's Jrue Holiday was the best all-around guard--and perhaps the best all-around player--in game two with a team-high 26 points on 11-14 field goal shooting, a game-high 11 rebounds, three assists, and no turnovers in 41 minutes. Milwaukee's trade of Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard--which resulted in Boston acquiring Holiday from Portland--turned out to be disastrous for the Bucks and a blessing for the Celtics. Holiday has 38 points and no turnovers so far in this series, the second most points with no turnovers in the first two games of the NBA Finals since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers in the 1977-78 season, trailing only Michael Jordan (70 points and no turnovers in the first two games of the 1998 NBA Finals, also known as the Chicago Bulls' "Last Dance.").

Jaylen Brown had another strong game, contributing 21 points, seven assists, and four rebounds, with the only blemish being his team-high six turnovers. "Stat gurus" who worship "advanced basketball statistics" may focus on Jayson Tatum's 6-22 field goal shooting, but Tatum had a game-high 12 assists plus nine rebounds; his defense, rebounding, and playmaking were crucial for Boston, and his 18 points on inefficient shooting were a bonus. Numbers matter, but what matters more is that Tatum impacts the game at both ends of the court, and that his talent distorts Dallas' defense, creating open high percentage shots for his teammates (even on plays for which Tatum did not earn assists). Derrick White added 18 points and five rebounds. Game one hero Kristaps Porzingis had 12 points, four rebounds, and two blocked shots in 23 minutes before sitting out the final 4:40 of the game after tweaking his lower left leg. Porzingis missed 10 straight playoff games with a right calf strain, so his health status is a cause for concern for Boston even though he insisted right after the game that he will play in game three no matter what. 

Doncic led the Mavericks in scoring (32 points), rebounding (11 rebounds) and assists (11), but he had a game-high eight turnovers and his 12-21 field goal shooting is a testament to his immense talent, because he had to work very hard for every shot that he made. The Celtics defended Doncic one on one for the most part, with Brown and Tatum shouldering the bulk of the load and each doing an excellent job even though Doncic posted gaudy boxscore numbers. P.J. Washington had a solid game (17 points, seven rebounds), but Kyrie Irving again fell well short of expectations, finishing with 16 points on 7-18 field goal shooting. He added six assists but he still has not made a three point field goal in this series, and his 2-2 free throw shooting marked his first free throw attempts in two games versus Boston's elite defense; the Irving redemption narrative being forced down our throats by many media members is on hold for at least one more game--but even if Irving plays well in game three his unrepentant antisemitism and his complicity with China's slave labor policies/widespread human rights abuses should not be forgiven or forgotten; those things are much more important than how well he shoots or how his team performs.

It is fair to say that we need a recount on the assertion by TNT's Stan Van Gundy that Doncic and Irving are the best offensive backcourt of all-time; so far in this series, they have been the best offensive backcourt for one quarter out of eight: in the first quarter of game two, Doncic (13 points on 5-7 field goal shooting) and Irving (eight points on 4-5 field goal shooting) staked the Mavericks to a 28-25 lead before combining to score 27 points on 10-27 field goal shooting the rest of the way.

The biggest threat to the Celtics' championship hopes is their propensity for squandering too many offensive possessions with low percentage three pointers early in the shot clock; such shots are not conducive for team success in general, and they are particularly senseless in this series when the Celtics enjoy such pronounced matchup advantages every time Brown, Holiday, or Tatum attack the hoop off of the dribble. The Mavericks are just not able to consistently stay in front of Brown, Holiday, or Tatum, which results in either high percentage close range field goal attempts or else high percentage drive and kick three pointers (which are much better shots than three pointers jacked up early in the shot clock without first challenging the Mavericks in the paint).

Dallas fans may say that the Celtics merely did what they were supposed to do at home and that the Mavericks can get back in this series by holding serve at home, but the reality is that teams that have taken a 2-0 NBA Finals lead won the series 31 out of 36 times--and the five exceptions to that historical rule featured all-time greats Bill Russell (1969 Celtics), Bill Walton (1977 Trail Blazers), Dwyane Wade (2006 Heat), LeBron James (2016 Cavaliers), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2021 Milwaukee Bucks). If the Mavericks will four of the next five games, it will be because Doncic has one of the greatest Finals performances of all-time and because the Celtics drifted away from high percentage paint shots to low percentage three point shots.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 3:03 AM

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Celtics Take Big Early Lead, Rout Mavericks in Game One of the NBA Finals

The Boston Celtics did not accidentally post a 64-18 regular season record, nor did they just stumble to a 12-2 record in the Eastern Conference playoffs; they are big, deep, and versatile--and with Kristaps Porzingis back in the fold they are now at full strength. Prior to game one of the NBA Finals, it was fashionable in some quarters to pick the Dallas Mavericks based on the notion that the Mavericks navigated a tougher postseason journey thus far--but in game one the Celtics asserted their dominance early, and they dominated most of the game en route to a 107-89 win. It is also fashionable to call game one a "feel out" game, but the reality is that the winner of game one of the NBA Finals has captured the championship 70% of the time.  

Six Celtics scored in double figures, led by Jaylen Brown's 22 points on 7-12 field goal shooting. Brown also had six rebounds, three steals, three blocked shots, and two assists. Porzingis had a sensational return to action after missing the last 10 games due to a calf injury, scoring 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting in 21 minutes off of the bench. He added six rebounds and three blocked shots. Jayson Tatum had a quiet offensive game by his lofty standards (16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, game-high six turnovers), but he posted game-high totals in rebounds (11) and assists (five). Derrick White (15 points, five assists) and Jrue Holiday (12 points, eight rebounds, five assists, game-best +22 plus/minus number) made significant contributions at both ends of the court.

Luka Doncic scored a game-high 30 points and grabbed a team-high 10 rebounds, but the Celtics can live with Doncic shooting 12-26 from the field and posting just one assist versus four turnovers. P.J. Washington was Dallas' second leading scorer with 14 points, and the Celtics can live with that as well--which is not to say that Washington played poorly, but just to note that the Mavericks are not going to win many playoff games when Washington is their second leading scorer with just 14 points. Jaden Hardy had 13 points in 11 minutes, but he scored 11 of those points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter with the outcome of the game long decided. The Kyrie Irving redemption stories will have to be put on hold for at least one more game, as Irving finished with 12 points on 6-19 field goal shooting along with two assists and three turnovers. Irving did not make a three pointer and he did not attempt a free throw.

Porzingis scored 11 first quarter points on 4-5 field goal shooting while also snaring three rebounds and blocking two shots. The Celtics built the largest first quarter lead in NBA Finals history, 37-20, while shooting 13-23 (.565) from the field and holding the Mavericks to 9-24 (.375) field goal shooting. The Celtics pushed the margin to 29 (58-29) at the 4:11 mark of the second quarter before the Mavericks closed the first half with a 13-5 run to pull within 63-42 at halftime.

Doncic outscored the Celtics 10-9 during the first 7:32 of the third quarter as the Mavericks slashed the deficit to 72-64, but then Tatum and Brown steadied the ship by attacking the hoop on offense. Brown also asserted himself defensively. The first eight minutes or so of the third quarter were the Celtics at their worst, jacking up three pointers and not playing high energy defense, but that proved to be just a brief interlude in the middle of 40 minutes of dominance.

Doncic is so skilled that he can score at least 25-30 points versus any defense, but the Celtics are able to match up one on one with Doncic and Irving, which makes it difficult for the Mavericks to create the lob opportunities and open three pointers that they feasted on when opposing teams trapped Doncic and Irving during their three previous playoff series. The Celtics not only match up well with Doncic and Irving but they also have several perimeter players who can expose Doncic and Irving defensively.

In my series preview I declared, "Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are an even better two-way duo than Doncic and Irving, and Boston has the NBA's best, most versatile starting lineup." The Tatum-Brown duo is collectively bigger than the Doncic-Irving duo, and the Tatum-Brown duo significantly impacts the game at both ends of the court while the Doncic-Irving duo primarily impacts the game on offense.

NBA playoff series are decided by matchups, not momentum. Game two starts 0-0, not 107-89, and the outcome of that game will be determined by the extent to which the Celtics exploit their matchup advantages; if they attack the hoop on offense and defend the paint on defense, they will beat the Mavericks--but if they jack up three pointers early in the shot clock and play with low energy defensively then they will give the Mavericks a chance to steal homecourt advantage. The Celtics took a 2-1 advantage in the 2022 NBA Finals only to lose game four to the Golden State Warriors and then fall in six games. The Celtics enjoyed similar matchup advantages versus the Warriors that they enjoy now versus the Mavericks, but they did not relentlessly exploit those matchup advantages in 2022; it will be interesting to see if they have learned from that painful lesson.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 11:39 PM

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