Milwaukee Holds Off New York 110-105 in the First NBA Cup Game
I already provided my skeptical perspective about the NBA's in-season NBA Cup tournament.
I will add that I can see how young fans might be excited about the unique and colorful NBA Cup court designs and about watching their favorite players and
teams competing for a special trophy--but that excitement will dissipate
quickly unless the players and teams take the NBA Cup a lot more
seriously than many of them have taken the regular season recently. As a long-time basketball fan/historian, I hope that the NBA Cup will be successful in terms of featuring competitive basketball.
The NBA Cup began on Friday night in Milwaukee with the 2-2 Bucks hosting the 2-3 New York Knicks. NBA Cup games count both in the regular season standings and in terms of qualifying for the NBA Cup tournament in December; the only NBA Cup game which will not count in the regular season standings is the December 9 championship game, which will be a stand alone game just like the Play-In Tournament games are not counted as regular season games or playoff games.
The Bucks led most of the way but had to scramble after Jalen Brunson's three pointer put the Knicks ahead 103-101 with just 1:10 remaining in the fourth quarter; that proved to the Knicks' first--and only--second half lead, as Damian Lillard answered with a three pointer followed by a conventional three point play and the Bucks preserved the win by making three out of four free throws in the final 18 seconds.
Lillard led the Bucks with 30 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He scored 15 fourth quarter points and did not commit a turnover in the final stanza. Antetokounmpo added 22 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. He had a game-high seven turnovers, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number; Lillard's plus/minus number (+2) ranked sixth on the team. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the way that Lillard plays--often shooting long three pointers, and often not playing much defense--is not typically the way that championship players play, notwithstanding his proven ability to win individual games with his clutch shooting. Lillard scored 21.3 ppg on .400 field goal shooting in his first four games as a Buck. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.3 ppg on 20.3 field goal attempts per game, but through the first four games this season he averaged 24.5 ppg on 16.8 field goal attempts per game. It should not take a "stat guru" or mathematical genius to figure out that taking shots away from an efficient Antetokounmpo who attacks the paint to give those shots to an undersized Lillard who shoots logo three pointers is not a recipe for creating an optimally efficient offense. If Lillard is as great and unselfish as he is supposed to be, then it should not be a problem for the Bucks to run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo and Lillard that generates (1) easy shots for Antetokounmpo in the paint, (2) open shots for Lillard closer than 30 feet from the hoop, and (3) open shots for their teammates if the opponent denies the first two options.
Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points on 17-30 field goal shooting. He had a +2 plus/minus number in a game that his team lost by five points. Quentin Grimes (17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and Immanuel Quickley (14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting) played well, but Julius Randle has become the least efficient volume scorer in the NBA: he finished with 16 points on 5-20 field goal shooting, and that is just not good enough even though his floor game was excellent (12 rebounds, team-high tying five assists, just one turnover in 39 minutes). The Knicks dominated the larger Bucks 56-41 on the boards, and they outscored the Bucks 59-54 in the second half. If Randle had been mediocre instead of terrible then the Knicks would have won.
A 110-105 victory over a less than impressive Knicks team should be nothing special for a team with championship aspirations, but the Bucks need every win they can get because the Damian Lillard honeymoon did not last long in Milwaukee. Lillard poured in 39 points in an opening night win versus the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Bucks lost two of their next three games. Double digit losses to the non-contending Hawks and Raptors sandwiched around a win versus the thus-far lethargic Heat hardly inspire confidence, particularly considering that in this admittedly small sample size of games the Bucks have slipped from being an elite defensive team last season to being an atrocious defensive team.
The Bucks made two major offseason changes: they fired Mike Budenholzer--who coached the Bucks to the 2021 championship with a defense-first mindset--and replaced him with former NBA player Adrian Griffin, who has never been a head coach at any level; they traded away all-around guard Jrue Holiday for Lillard, a prolific scorer who thinks defense is what surrounds the yard. Without Budenholzer and Holiday, it is not surprising that the Bucks are struggling to stay in front of perimeter players and that collectively they look confused defensively. I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Lillard trade but despite it; I am not convinced that the trade made the Bucks better, but I am convinced that a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, generational player. The Bucks must make Antetokounmpo the focal point of the offense, and they must figure out how to hide Lillard's defensive deficiencies.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 12:20 AM
13 Comments:
maybe not a major move, but stotts leaving the bucks just before the season started did not help.
Anon:
That is a good point. The fact that a very respected coach did not feel comfortable continuing as a member of Coach Griffin's staff is not a good sign for the Bucks, although it could just be a personality clash without larger implications; without inside information it is difficult to know for sure what to make of Stotts' departure.
Marcel
David the bucks like the nuggets are one time NBA champs but people foolishy bought the fradulent dynasty tag, and they will never win 2 titles
Dame great player but can't guard no one
Giannis can't make free throws. They need another on ball defender
Knicks are a second round team. Ur not going nowhere in the NBA with Jalen brunson as ur best player
The only contender are
Lakers
Suns
Dallas
Warriors
Celtics
With Celts and Dallas playing the best right now
In season tournament ridiculous and waste of money and games
Only one champion matters and that in june
December champions foh
Marcel:
LeBron's Lakers are one-time "bubble" champs who have missed the playoffs twice in the past four years, and lost in the first round two years ago, so it is bizarre that you are criticizing the Bucks--who have won at least 50 games in four of the past five seasons (and it would have been five for five if COVID 19 had not shortened the 2021 season) while reaching at least the second round in four of five seasons as well--and the Nuggets, who dominated the Lakers during a dominant championship run.
I agree with you about the Knicks, who may actually be a first round team.
It seems odd to call the 3-4 Lakers and 3-4 Suns contenders right now. It is not too much to ask a "contender" to have a better than .500 record.
The Mavs are feasting on weak teams now, and we saw how they collapsed down the stretch last season, so I remain skeptical. The Warriors look better than I expected, but CP3 always gets hurt or chokes in the playoffs, so I won't believe in them fully until I see them win multiple playoff series.
The Celtics and Nuggets are the two best teams right now.
I am not sure why you are so negative about the Nuggets. If the Nuggets are as bad as you suggest, then how terrible are LeBron's Lakers for getting swept by them? You can't have it both ways, at least not here with me fact-checking you.
The other thing that you ignore about Denver and Milwaukee is that Jokic and Giannis stayed with one team and won a championship without playing alongside a first ballot HoFer. If LeBron were playing with Murray or Middleton you would whine that LeBron can't be expected to win with those guys as the second option--but Jokic not only won, he beat LeBron's hand-picked superteam with Davis plus the "tremendous trio" that LeBron begged to get in exchange for Westbrook so that he could have "lasers."
Marcel makes some good points, but his top 5 teams is confusing. Nuggets, Bucks, and Sixers all should be in there.
CP3 has little to do with the Warriors being great. The Warriors need their core to stay remotely healthy along with a few more key rotational guys stepping up. They look better than when they won the title 2 years ago though. CP3 will help if he's healthy, but he's a small guard who's nearly 40. He's maximized his ability over his career, but basically nobody in NBA history is doing much at his age and with his mileage especially as a smaller guard.
I don't think much of the Lakers, but they're a different team than last year. They look/seem better, but time will tell how much better, if any. They have a chance, though quite small. They were a disaster last year and still made the WCF. Milwaukee should've won the title last year and lost badly in the 1st round to a team who barely made the playoffs. So while Milwaukee looks a lot better on paper than the Lakers, the Lakers still greatly outperformed them last year. Good points about James and you're probably right about Marcel, but we're talking about prime Jokic and prime Giannis compared to 38yo James. The difference between Jokic/Giannis and James currently is substantial.
Anonymous:
Paul is currently leading the Warriors in assists, and he ranks second in steals. He has stabilized their sometimes suspect bench, and in that sense he has played a role in the Warriors' early season success--but I don't think that this is sustainable, for the reasons I already mentioned.
The Lakers took advantage of some favorable matchups during the playoffs, and the rare small window of both Davis and James being healthy and engaged at the same time, which has not happened much since the "bubble" title. When they faced a legit contender, they got swept.
The Bucks were not healthy during the first round, and the team that beat them that "barely made the playoffs" also subsequently advanced to the NBA Finals for the second time in four years, but I know that the Giannis/Milwaukee hate in the comments section here is real and is unlikely to change; if the Bucks win another title I am sure that we will be told that they had an easy path, and if they don't win another title we will be told that they have been overrated all along. Meanwhile, since LeBron left the East, Giannis has won one more ring than Tatum, Embiid, Butler, Durant, and Harden combined.
Marcel,
Love your Lakers love, but there is no way that you can view the Lakers at this moment as a title favorite. With half their rotation injured, and Davis sidelined as well, they may not even be a play-in team. That said, we don't know how this team will perform as Vincent, Hachimura, Hayes and Vanderbilt have barely played. Day-to-Davis has returned as well unfortunately. That said, even with those guys, and Lebron and AD healthy, I don't know if that's enough to beat the Nuggets or Celtics.
The most worrisome aspect is with all the injuries, Lebron has been playing a huge amount of minutes. It's what got the Lakers in trouble last year as well. He went for the scoring crown and then sat out a month and a half.
@David
I have been a believer in the Bucks for the past three seasons, despite an uneven playoff resume. That said, I am not a believer in Damian Lillard, who has never put any effort into defense throughout his career. Whatever he adds on the offensive end, he gives up as much or more on the defensive end. I think the team is worse without Jrue (though trading for Lillard did get Giannis to sign).
Curry's transformation from liability to solid on the defensive end has taken 3-4 years. Trae Young, once statistically the worst defender in the league, has looked much more engaged this season. He's also only 25 years old and still developing.
At 33, Logo Lillard isn't going to suddenly transform into even a decent defensive player. He simply doesn't have the effort (let alone the years put in) like Curry or the youth (time) like Young. Lillard is small, generously listed at 6-2, and not long, athletic, or particularly strong, so he doesn't have the body to excel at something like post defense (like Harden). And, he doesn't have a history to fall back on. Westbrook became a lackadaisical defender post Durant as he had to shoulder the offense. But, coming out of UCLA and during his first half dozen years in the NBA, he was a good to excellent defender. So, he had that in his bag. We've seen him pull it out for the Clippers.
Lillard has never been considered even a decent defender going all the way back to his Weber State days.
With zero proven elite defenders on the perimeter, and as mentioned in another thread about the change in defensive philosophy that is not ideal for their personnel, the Bucks look like at best a second round exit team this season. I could also see them miss the postseason all together. It's frustrating to write this, as I believe if they'd stayed the course with Jrue, they'd be one of the top 4-5 teams in the league.
David and anonymous
I think this is Luka mvp year.
I believe Dallas will last and win 55-60 games
Gs issue was Poole they look nice this year and cp3 influence is undeniable I'm reg season
New Orleans, clippers, okc, phoeninow gs teams overachieving
Boston
Y'all know this is pretty obvious kp fits perfectly and jrue a great addition. They my favs right now
Lakers
Is missing 3 players and will be 4-4 after Houston game. I think the team has good 3 point shooting wings and size
Suns got to get healthy. They got alot of good role players with booker kd and beal
Why I didn't pick Milwaukee or nuggets
Milwaukee got no perimeter defense and there simply can't match up with Celtics
Sixers I will never believe in embid David or anymous
Denver a great team and defending champs when healthy?
U see what happened today? Murray hurt for a month
That why I will never believe in them being a dynasty or. Multiple champs
Murray never healthy the stars aligned last year and I don't think he will stay healthy again
So to me Denver not contenders
Anonymous (presumably Marcel):
Doncic has been a top five MVP candidate several times, so it is not a reach to suggest that he will win an MVP at some point.
I would be very surprised if Dallas wins 60 games.
I am not convinced that Poole was the major problem for the Warriors last year.
The Lakers are often missing players. They are unlikely to match last season's playoff run.
The Suns' lack of health is not surprising considering the recent injury history of their top players.
It is more than a bit early to write Denver off now. There is no reason to believe that Murray's current injury will linger all the way into the 2024 playoffs. You are oddly dismissive of a Denver team that dismantled your Lakers and has won as many championships as the Lakers since LeBron arrived in L.A. and served as GM/Coach/Player President. Do you really not see that winning a title in a full season with Murray as the number two option is more impressive than winning a "bubble" title with Davis as the second option?
Jordan:
I believe that Marcel is more of a LeBron fan than a Lakers fan. He will pick LeBron's team to win the title every year until LeBron retires.
I agree with you about Lillard's limitations, and that those limitations are unlikely to improve. I noted in my season preview that I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the East despite the Lillard trade, not because of it. At this point, the Bucks are not as good as I expected, and they are clearly not as good as the Celtics. That said, I would be very surprised if the Bucks miss the playoffs with a healthy Giannis.
Marcel:
Your Lakers just got smoked by the Rockets, and are now 3-5, so you may want to hold off on planning that championship parade just yet: giving up 128 points to Houston while shooting 7-28 from three point range does not look like any championship recipe that I have ever seen.
Marcel
David and Jordan
It's 8 games in and we lost like 3 games by 2 points. Once we get healthy we will get rolling
I admit I may be wrong o. The backcourt d lo plays no defense
I see Dallas lost Milwaukee starting to look better etc
I just don't kno about dame Lillard on defense vs the Celtics. Where jrue holiday could guard much better
Suns got beal back they might do some things
Nuggets beat the warriors last night. I'm still not sold Murray will stay healthy
Ive been a laker fan since and Kobe David lol.
I actually think Kobe a lil better than bron. Bron had a better career cause he been healthy 21 years
Kobe had more skill than bron shot 3 a lil better better ft shooter and midrange area he was better
Also Kobe didn't jump ship he built and stayed in one place. And he was cutthroat player
I just admire bron greatness for being great 21 years and never dropping much
That it
Marcel:
At the end of the season, all of the wins and losses count the same regardless of when they happened or who was available. Also, the Lakers lost to Houston by a lot more than two points.
The great DLo has never been a part of a consistently winning program, and I don't think that is going to change now.
I don't trust Lillard but I do trust Giannis. I am not sure yet about Coach Griffin.
Kobe was without question a better player than LeBron in terms of peak value. You are right that an argument can be made that LeBron has had a better career in terms of longevity and being an All-NBA caliber player for a longer period of time, though of course even in a shorter career Kobe won more titles with a better Finals record.
There is a lot to respect and admire about LeBron. My main criticisms of him pertain to jumping teams, and to having a major role in personnel/coaching decisions but not taking responsibility when his hand-picked squads fail. LeBron completely reshaped the Lakers because of his belief in Davis, and that has resulted in one "bubble" title.
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