The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament, Featuring the Worst of the Non-Tankers
The 2025-26 season will long be remembered for the NBA de facto becoming two leagues: a 20 team league in which teams competed to qualify for the playoffs or at least for the Play-In Tournament, and a 10 team league in which teams competed to lose as many games as possible. The standings reflect this sharp divide; instead of wins and losses being distributed relatively evenly, the 10th seeded team in the Eastern Conference finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the 10th seeded team in the Western Conference also finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team. The 10th seeded team in each conference qualifies for the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the teams finishing below 10th head straight to the NBA Draft Lottery. Last season, the Eastern Conference's 10th seeded team finished seven games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the Western Conference's 10th seeded team finished just three games ahead of the 11th seeded team. During the 2023-24 season, the margins were four games and five games respectively, and in 2022-23 the margins were five games and two games respectively. In 1995-96, when the Chicago Bulls won a then-record 72 regular season games and eight teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs without an NBA Play-In Tournament, the margins between eighth place and ninth place in each conference were one game and three games respectively.
In short, to the extent that tanking existed historically it was much more limited in scope than it was this season: fewer teams tanked, and they did so for a smaller portion of the season. NBA fans can thank "stat gurus"--who act like they have figured out the mathematical solution to every problem--and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for the "tank-tacular" NBA, a league that charges full ticket prices and hefty streaming fees for the "privilege" of watching a third of the teams race to the bottom. Have any of the "stat gurus" noticed that many of the same teams are tanking each year, which would suggest to a sensible person that tanking is not the optimal way to build a winning team?
Most of the 2026 Play-In Tournament teams are not as good or as intriguing as the NBA's media partners assert, but four of these teams--two from the Eastern Conference and two from the Western Conference--will survive to participate in the NBA playoffs, which begin on April 18.
Last season, five of the eight Play-In Tournament teams had losing records. Not surprisingly, when movable forces face resistible objects the result is not scintillating basketball; the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament began with the 41-41 Orlando Magic eviscerating the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks, 120-95. This season, rampant tanking in the bottom third of the standings enabled seven of the eight Play-In Tournament teams to avoid having losing records.
The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 44-38 Charlotte Hornets hosting the 43-39 Miami Heat. ESPN's Charles Barkley has been calling the Hornets "The Dream Team" for months, and he was only half-joking: after starting the season 6-16, the Hornets went 38-22 the rest of the way, including a nine game winning streak featuring wins over San Antonio and Houston. The Hornets ranked first in three point field goals made as Kon Knueppel set the single season rookie record for three point field goals made, and his league-leading 273 were just one more than his teammate LaMelo Ball's 272. The Hornets ranked third in three point field goal percentage (.378) but they are not as adept at making other shots, ranking 25th in overall field goal percentage (.460) and 13th in scoring (116.0 ppg). They finished fifth in rebounding, seventh in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Brandon Miller (20.2 ppg), Ball (20.1 ppg), and Knueppel (18.5 ppg) lead a balanced scoring attack. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016, and their top nine players have combined to participate in zero career playoff games.
The Heat boast about their "culture" and their championship aspirations, but they have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2023. They used to be known for being a slow tempo team that played tough defense, but this season they ranked second in scoring and 22nd in points allowed. The Heat scored at least 135 points in 15 games, and they won 14 of those contests. First-time All-Star Norm Powell led the team in scoring (21.7 ppg) but he played in just 58 games. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 ppg in 33 games. Bam Adebayo averaged 20.1 ppg, the second highest mark in his career--boosted by his 83 point outburst versus the defenseless, tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards." The Heat have been the unofficial kings of the Play-In Tournament: in 2025, they became the first 10th seeded team to qualify for the playoffs, and in 2023 they emerged from the Play-Tournament to make an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets.
The Heat won the first two matchups with the Hornets before getting smoked 136-106 on March 17. Adebayo missed that game due to right calf tightness. I expect the Hornets' defense and three point shooting to cause problems for the Heat, so I am picking the Hornets to beat the Heat. The loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's Philadelphia-Orlando game to earn the Eastern Conference's eighth seed.
In Tuesday's nightcap, the 45-37 Phoenix Suns host the 42-20 Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns seemed to be rebuilding after trading Kevin Durant to Houston in a seven team deal last summer, but instead they won nine more games sans Durant this season than they won with him in 2024-25. The Suns' top players missed a lot of games in both seasons, so health does not explain the improvement. Not surprisingly, the Suns are worse offensively without Durant, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage this season after ranking 18th and 11th respectively in those categories last season. The difference is on defense, where the Suns improved from 22nd in points allowed to sixth while also inching up from 21st to 15th in defensive field goal percentage. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring (26.1 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while two of the players acquired in the Durant deal have been major contributors: Dillon Brooks averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg and Jalen Green chipped in 17.8 ppg.
The Portland Trail Blazers have not made the playoffs since 2021 and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals, but Deni Avdija's emergence as a first-time All-Star helped this young team improve just enough to at least contend for postseason play. Avdija led the team in scoring (career-high 24.2 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.7 apg) while also averaging 6.9 rpg. Shaedon Sharpe contributed a career-high 20.8 ppg, while Jerami Grant bounced back from an awful 2024-25 season (14.4 ppg on .373 field goal shooting) to score 18.6 ppg on solid .453 field goal shooting. First year head coach Tiago Splitter did an admirable job replacing Chauncey Billups at the last minute after Billups was placed on leave by the NBA because of his alleged role in a two-pronged illegal gambling scandal. As is often the case with teams that finish around .500, the Trail Blazers have mediocre rankings in many statistical categories, but they finished sixth in rebounding and seventh in blocked shots, numbers that hint at their youth and athleticism.
The Suns won the first two head to head matchups in high scoring games at Portland, and then the Trail Blazers won 92-77 at Phoenix. Booker and Brooks did not play in that game, and Avdija played less than a minute, so that contest does not say much about these teams at full strength. I expect Avdija to have a great all-around game, but Booker and Brooks will each score 25-plus points in a Phoenix win. The loser of that game will miss the playoffs, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State game to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed.
On Wednesday night, the 45-37 Philadelphia 76ers will host the 45-37 Orlando Magic. The tanking teams should stop hiring "stat gurus" and instead take a graduate course on "The Process": after the 76ers reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012, and then missed the playoffs by four games in 2013, the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager and embarked on a four year tanking program. As a result, the 76ers chose Joel Embiid with the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, but in the next nine seasons he failed to advance past the second round--and he is currently sidelined after appendicitis surgery. Since "stat gurus" claim to love numbers, let the record show that the 76ers lost on purpose for four years--and a decade later all of that intentional losing has yet to produce a better playoff team than their 2012 squad. I realize that some "stat gurus" are as slow as they are stubborn, but objectively the numbers prove that tanking does not work.
First-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey had a breakout season, leading the 76ers with a career-high 28.3 ppg. He does not shrink in the playoffs like Embiid does, but he also has not proven that he can carry a team very far. Rookie VJ Edgecombe averaged 16.0 ppg, and he is the only one of the 76ers' top five scorers who played in at least 75 games. Injuries and a 25 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs limited Paul George to just 37 games, during which he averaged 17.3 ppg. Insert joke about the drugs not actually enhancing George's play very much--and his playoff resume is nothing to write home about.
The Magic were considered to be a team on the rise after going 47-35 in 2023-24, but something has just not clicked since then. Injuries have not helped, but even when this team is at or near full strength it does not strike fear into the hearts of legit contenders. All they had to do to host Philadelphia in the Play-In Tournament was beat a Boston team that rested its key players in the last regular season game, but instead the Magic fell flat on their faces. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team in his second season (2024) and has not been back since. He led the Magic in scoring (22.2 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 ppg), but the initial thought/hope that he could develop into a franchise player now seems to be unrealistic. Offseason acquisition Desmond Bane did his part, averaging 20.1 ppg while being one of just 18 NBA players who participated in all 82 games.
With the 76ers at home and the Magic floundering around, it is tempting to pick Philadelphia, but the 76ers are 24-14 with Embiid this season, and 21-23 without him; in other words, new year but same old story: with Embiid, the 76ers are a 50 win regular season team that is just good enough to lose early in the playoffs, and without Embiid the 76ers are not good at all. If the 76ers were completely healthy, I would not pick them to advance past the second round this season, and in their current state I expect even the enigmatic Orlando Magic to beat them.
Wednesday's action will conclude with the 42-40 L.A. Clippers hosting the 37-45 Golden State Warriors. The Clippers started the season 6-16 before cutting ties with Chris Paul. They soon went on a six game winning streak, and their 11-4 January record lifted them above the tanking teams and into fringe playoff contention. The Clippers did some more addition by subtraction in early February by jettisoning 36 year old James Harden in exchange for 26 year old Darius Garland. This is just the second season since 2017 that Kawhi Leonard played in at least 65 games; he conveniently landed exactly on the number that keeps him eligible for postseason award consideration, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams after averaging a career-high 27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .505/.387/.892. Garland has been a dependable second scoring option, averaging 19.9 ppg in 19 games with the Clippers.
After Jimmy Butler played just 38 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and injuries limited Stephen Curry to 43 games, future Hall of Famer Draymond Green picked up the slack--and led Golden State to the last Play-In Tournament slot after Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Utah, and Sacramento decided to abandon even the pretense of trying to win. We have seen this Draymond Green experience before: in 2019-20 with Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined by injuries, Green led the Warriors to a 15-50 record. Green's fans describe him as essential member of four Golden State championship teams, but a credible argument could be made that his flagrant fouls, suspensions, and negative impact on team chemistry cost the Warriors almost as many championships as he helped them win--and the word "helped" is used advisedly: as the third and sometimes fourth best player on championship teams, Green was not as dominant as Dennis Rodman--a lock down defender and seven-time rebounding champion--nor was he as clutch as Robert Horry.
This season, the Warriors were 24-19 with Curry, and 13-26 without him, with Green along for the ride in either scenario. The Warriors ranked 14th in points allowed, 22nd in scoring, 23rd in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in field goal percentage, and 25th in rebounding; some of those numbers are skewed a bit by Curry's extended absences, but the reality is that the Warriors are what their record says they are: not very good. The Clippers are not the second coming of the 1996 Chicago Bulls, but with Leonard scoring an efficient 30 points and Garland adding 25 points the Clippers will put the Warriors out of their misery.
In Friday's Play-In Tournament games, I expect Charlotte to beat Philadelphia and L.A. to defeat Portland. As noted above, Charlotte is inexperienced but the Hornets are stout defensively, while the 76ers are the predictable product of years of tanking. The Clippers sans Harden and Paul will complete their rise from the basement to the penthouse (or at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs).
Thus, if my predictions are correct, the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will claim the seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded teams will be the Charlotte Hornets and the L.A. Clippers.
Watching a third of the NBA tank into oblivion this season was not enjoyable, and even finding the games may be challenging for the casual fan, so it should be noted that all of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament games are being shown exclusively on Amazon Prime.
The Play-In Tournament has yet to cure tanking or provide consistently high quality basketball, but maybe we will be fortunate to have at least a few entertaining games as appetizers before the playoffs begin.Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2025
Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament (April 17, 2025)
Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths (April 16, 2025)
Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2025)
2024
76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)
Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)
The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons (April 15, 2024)
2023
Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)
2022
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
2021
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM
2 Comments:
The harder the league tries to combat tanking, the worse it gets. Their strategies look solid on paper but they only scratch the surface of the issue and they seem to just backfire on them. The league must use some type of nuclear option. It could be getting rid of the draft lottery altogether or reverse the lottery where the team that finished closest to playoff qualification has the highest odds of getting the first overall pick and the team that finished 30th has the lowest odds, but neither of those probably won’t happen.
For anyone who advocates tanking on any level, just remember, a bunch of teams were aggressively losing on purpose to acquire Zion Williamson who was hyped up as the second coming of LeBron James. In his seven season career, he has missed one full season and has averaged 46 games played in the six seasons in which he did play. In seven seasons he hasn’t played a single second of playoff basketball.
Michael:
I don't think that the league has tried very hard to combat tanking, or at least the NBA has not tried to combat tanking in an intelligent way that removes any real and perceived incentives to tank. By that, I mean that there is a perception and belief that tanking works (even though it doesn't; see below), so NBA teams will keep tanking until the league stops rewarding tanking with Lottery Draft picks. The NBA should either restructure the Lottery so that losing does not ensure getting more "ping pong balls," or the NBA should just get rid of the Draft entirely and let players sign anywhere that they fit under the salary cap. The salary cap would prevent big market teams from signing all of the best players.
Tanking does not work, but there appears to be a herd mentality among NBA executives: every team jacks up as many three pointers as possible (even though improving team defense is much more connected with winning than just jacking up as many three pointers as possible) and every team that does not think that it can win a first round series is tanking even though a mountain of evidence proves that tanking does not work.
The Nets had five first round picks last year, and are tanking again this year. The 76ers tanked to get Joel Embiid and a decade later they have not put together a team that was better than the last playoff team that they had before they tanked. As you noted, the Pelicans and many other teams tanked to get Zion, who is the shorter, heavier version of Embiid: an out of shape, overrated player whose gaudy individual numbers have little connection with meaningful, sustained team success.
There is an old article from The Atlantic that I repeatedly cite here that documents in detail that no team that tanked to get the number one overall pick ever won an NBA title with the player selected number one overall. Some may argue that the Tim Duncan Spurs are an exception, but the reality is that the Spurs began that season trying to win. Then, David Robinson suffered a season-ending injury. The Spurs did not have a multi-year intentional losing program the way that the 76ers did with "The Process" or the way that up to a third of the league does now.
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