2026-27 Western Conference Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder followed up their historic 68-14 regular season and 2025 championship run by starting the 2025-26 season with a 24-1 record to match the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the best 25 game start in NBA history. Even though injuries limited Jalen Williams to just 33 regular season games, the Thunder still posted the league's best record (64-18) and looked poised to become the first team to win a second consecutive NBA title since the 2018 Warriors. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (31.1 ppg, 6.6 apg, 4.3 rpg) won his second consecutive regular season MVP and made the All-NBA First Team for the fourth straight year. The Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns and L.A. Lakers in the first two rounds before falling to the San Antonio Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference Finals. By game seven, the Thunder were without the services of not only Williams but also Ajay Mitchell, Williams' backup who averaged 22.3 ppg versus the Lakers in the second round.
It takes nothing away from the Spurs' accomplishment to note that the Thunder were not at full strength in the Western Conference Finals--and it should also be mentioned that the Spurs went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. The Spurs finished with the NBA's second best regular season record (62-20), reached the playoffs for the first time since 2019, and advanced to the NBA Finals for the first time since they won the 2014 NBA title. Victor Wembanyama led the way for the Spurs, posting team-highs in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg) and blocked shots (league-best 3.1 bpg). He had similarly outstanding numbers during the playoffs: 23.8 ppg, 10.9 rpg, league-best 3.5 bpg. Wembanyama won the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the first time while also making the All-NBA First Team for the first time and finishing third in regular season MVP voting. He has a young, talented supporting cast that includes Stephon Castle (16.7 ppg, team-high 7.4 apg), De'Aaron Fox (18.6 ppg, 6.2 apg), 2026 Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson (13.2 ppg), and Dylan Harper (11.8 ppg).
The Denver Nuggets have not advanced past the second round since winning the 2023 NBA title. That championship team led the league in field goal percentage, ranked eighth in points allowed, and finished 12th in scoring; last season's Nuggets ranked first in scoring and second in field goal percentage but just 21st in points allowed. With Nikola Jokic running the show from the high post or the low post, the Nuggets consistently have an elite offense, but their poor defense and their lack of depth have prevented them from making deep playoff runs the past three seasons. This offseason, the Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan (18.4 ppg in 77 games with the Sacramento Kings last season) and Marvin Bagley III (10.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg in 60 games for Dallas and Washington last season), but lost Peyton Watson (14.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, .411 3FG%), Tim Hardaway Jr. (13.5 ppg, .407 3FG%), Jonas Valanciunas (8.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg), and Bruce Brown (7.9 ppg, .385 3FG%).
Fred VanVleet missed the entire 2025-26 season with a torn right ACL, but his healthy return this season should provide a significant boost for a Houston team that missed his playmaking and leadership; last season, the Rockets ranked just 21st in the league in assists and 24th in turnovers. Kevin Durant is 38 years old but does not seem to have lost a step, at least on offense: last season, he averaged 26.0 ppg with .520/.413/.874 shooting splits, numbers that are in line with his career averages (27.1 ppg, .503/.392/.882). It is easy to forget that the Rockets went most of the regular season and the entire playoffs without Steven Adams, who is a force in the paint and on the boards; he averaged 5.8 ppg on .504 field goal shooting and 8.6 rpg in 32 games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
The Minnesota Timberwolves made significant changes to their rotation, parting ways with Julius Randle and Naz Reid while obtaining LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga. The Timberwolves have been trending downward since reaching the 2024 Western Conference Finals. The 2023-24 Timberwolves had a huge frontcourt with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns starting and Naz Reid winning the Sixth Man of the Year award as the first big man off of the bench. That squad posted the second best regular season record (56-26) in franchise history before eliminating the defending champion Denver Nuggets 4-3 in the second round. After trading Towns for Julius Randle, the Timberwolves slipped to 49-33 in 2024-25 but made it back to the Western Conference Finals after routing the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Last season, the Timberwolves went 49-33 again but lost in the second round. Adding Ball is supposed to provide playmaking and take pressure off of Anthony Edwards, but the Timberwolves were better off when they had a bigger, more physical team; the 2023-24 Timberwolves led the league in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed, and there is no chance that this team as currently constructed will come close to the top ranking in either of those important categories.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs massively exceeded expectations, vaulting from missing the playoffs with a 34-48 record to reaching the NBA Finals after posting a 62-20 record. The Spurs had not won 60 games since 2016-17 and had not made the playoffs since 2019. The Spurs are just the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals after missing the playoffs for at least the six previous seasons, joining the 1977 Portland Trail Blazers (missed the playoffs for six straight seasons), the 2020 L.A. Lakers (six), and the 2021 Phoenix Suns (10).
The Spurs improved from 17th in the league in field goal percentage to sixth while jumping from 19th in rebounding to second, leaping from 23rd in points allowed to eighth, and soaring from 24th in defensive field goal percentage to fourth. Victor Wembanyama played a major role in those across the board improvements because he had a significant impact in the paint at both ends of the court: he played in 64 games after playing in just 46 games in 2024-25, he shot a career-high .512 from the field after shooting .476 in 2024-25, he slashed his 3FGA/game from 8.8 to 5.5, and he led the league in blocked shots for the third time in his three year career.
Wembanyama is the lead singer, but he is not a one man band: De'Aaron Fox earned his second All-Star selection, while Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Harper, and Julian Champagnie each scored in double figures. During the playoffs, Harper assumed a larger role, while Fox regressed after suffering a right high ankle sprain. It will be interesting to see how coach Mitch Johnson manages the minutes and the starting slots for his backcourt rotation.
Free agent signee Tobias Harris averaged 13.3 ppg and 5.1 rpg for the Pistons in the regular season last year before boosting those numbers to 18.1 ppg and 7.2 rpg during the playoffs. He injured his left calf during the preseason and is not expected to be available for the start of the regular season, but assuming that he makes a fully healthy return to action he will strengthen the Spurs' frontcourt rotation
The Spurs have the necessary personnel to win an NBA title, but reaching the NBA Finals in 2026 does not guarantee reaching the NBA Finals--let alone winning a championship--in 2027 or beyond. It remains to be seen if 2026 was the start of a dynastic run, or merely a young team peaking early.
2) Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for four straight seasons, a feat matched only by Pantheon members Michael Jordan (1987-93), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). He is also a good defensive player, though perhaps not quite as active and aggressive at that end of the court now as he was when he ranked in the top five in the league in steals for three straight seasons (2023-25).
The Thunder might have won a repeat NBA title if they had been blessed with better health. Jalen Williams--who earned his first All-NBA, All-Star, and All-Defensive selections during the Thunder's 2025 championship campaign--played in just 33 games last season and only played in five of the Thunder's 15 playoff games. Ajay Mitchell filled in admirably before getting injured in the Western Conference Finals.
Depth was a strength for the Thunder during the 2024-25 campaign, but no team is going to win a championship replacing an All-NBA caliber player with a third stringer. This season, the Thunder's depth will be tested because the team lost several players due to the dreaded second apron, trading away Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins to slash payroll. The Thunder still have a strong eight to nine player rotation, but they are not quite as deep as they were and thus they will be less able to withstand an injury to a key player like Jalen Williams.
It is easy to forget how dominant the Thunder were for large stretches of last season even with Williams out of the lineup or playing at less than 100%. It would not be surprising at all if the Thunder win the 2027 NBA title.
3) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have won at least 50 games in each of the past four seasons, and that trend figures to continue as long as Nikola Jokic remains in peak form. Jokic won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023, 2025, and 2026. As I noted in my 2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions, Jokic is a statistical marvel:
Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg...Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.
Last season, Jokic became the first player in pro basketball history to lead the league in rpg and apg in the same season; the only other player who led the league in both categories in the same season is Wilt Chamberlain, who led the NBA in rebounds and assists in 1967-68 when league leaders were determined by totals, not averages. Jokic ranks second in pro basketball history with 198 career triple doubles, trailing only Russell Westbrook (209). Oscar Robertson was the first player who averaged a triple double for an entire season (1961-62), and he also averaged an aggregate triple double during his first five NBA seasons. Russell Westbrook averaged a triple double in four seasons (2017-19, 2021) while averaging an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21. Jokic has averaged a triple double in each of the past two seasons.
Jamal Murray has been an excellent second option for the Nuggets during most of Jokic's career, with the only problem being Murray's injury issues. Murray missed the entire 2021-22 season with a torn left ACL, and he has played 67 games or less in five of his eight other seasons. Last season, Murray played in 75 games--his highest total since he played in 75 games in 2018-19--and he posted career-high numbers in scoring (25.4 ppg), assists (7.1 apg), and rebounding (4.4 rpg) while earning his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) and his first All-Star selection.
Third option Aaron Gordon has also battled injuries, playing in just 36 games last season and 51 games in 2024-25. When healthy, Gordon is a double figure scorer who gets most of his points near the hoop but can step out to make three pointers. He is a solid rebounder and defensive player whose physicality eases the burden on Jokic.
The ceiling for Denver is to win a championship, but the Nuggets do not seem deep enough or stout enough defensively to do that unless everything breaks right. The most realistic outcome is a top three regular season finish and a hard-fought second round loss to San Antonio or Oklahoma City.
4) Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant continues to perform at an All-NBA level, and under coach Ime Udoka the Rockets emerged as the NBA's best rebounding team while also ranking fourth in points allowed and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. After the L.A. Lakers defeated the Rockets in the first round, much was made of the Lakers overcoming injuries, but during that series the Rockets were not only without the services of Durant for five of the six games but they were also missing starting point guard Fred VanVleet and key big man Steven Adams.
The healthy return of VanVleet should help the Rockets take care of the ball better, particularly in the late game situations that proved troublesome last season. The Rockets will also benefit from getting a full season out of Adams, who is said to be fully recovered from the serious ankle injury he suffered in January 2026.
Last season, Alperun Sengun averaged 20.4 ppg, a team-high 8.9 rpg, and a team-high 6.2 apg as he earned his second consecutive All-Star selection. Amen Thompson led the Rockets in minutes (37.4 mpg) while ranking second in rebounding (7.8 rpg), second in assists (5.3 apg), and third in scoring (18.3 ppg). He is an elite, multi-position defender.
The Rockets are not quite as deep as the Spurs or Thunder, nor do they have an otherworldly player in his prime like the Nuggets, but if they are fully healthy they will be a tough out in a seven game series.
5) Minnesota Timberwolves: After setting a career-high with 10.3 3FGA/game in 2024-25, Anthony Edwards dialed back his long range bombing to 8.4 3FGA/game in 2025-26 and he scored a career-high 28.8 ppg (third in the league) with .489/.399/.796 shooting splits. He set career highs in FG% and 3FG%, and even though his FT% dropped from his career-high .837 in 2024-25 it was just a tick below his career average. Edwards is already a six year veteran, but he is just 25 years old and he is still improving. The Timberwolves hope that newly acquired point guard LaMelo Ball will create easier shot opportunities for everyone, including his backcourt mate Edwards.
The addition of Ball is the latest move signaling that the Timberwolves have shifted from relying on size, physicality, and defense to depending on being able to outrun and outgun their opponents. Ball and Edwards will push the ball and look for easy scoring opportunities in transition, but--as Pat Riley noted decades ago when he coached the "Showtime" Lakers--"No rebounds, no rings": if the Timberwolves do not get enough defensive stops and defensive rebounds then their running game will never get going.
Championship teams that are remembered by casual fans as flashy, high scoring ensembles also had a stern defensive backbone and enough size and tenacity to battle in the paint; the 1980's Lakers and the four-time champion Golden State Warriors of recent vintage are two prime examples of this, and unless/until the Timberwolves find the right balance they will not overtake the Western Conference's top teams.
6) L.A. Lakers: LeBron James' longest continuous run with one team--eight seasons--ended when he left the L.A. Lakers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers this summer. The James era in L.A. produced one championship (the 2020 "bubble title"), a Western Conference Finals appearances in 2023, one second round loss, three first round losses, and two seasons without playoff appearances; in short, James' Lakers failed to advance past the second round in six out of eight seasons.
James has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2020, when he was 35 years old. After the Lakers acquired Luka Doncic in the middle of the 2024-25 season, James shifted to a secondary role for the first time in his career. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team last season after winning his second scoring title (33.5 ppg), and he finished in the top five in MVP voting (fourth) for the fourth time in his eight season career. Doncic missed the 2026 playoffs because of a severe left hamstring strain, and James led the Lakers to a 4-2 first round win over Houston before Oklahoma City swept the Lakers in the second round, with three of the four games being decided by at least 18 points.
During the offseason, the Lakers acquired Walker Kessler to bolster their paint presence while parting ways with Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and Jaxson Hayes. The Lakers are the first team in NBA history to get rid of all five of the players who ranked in the top five on the team in total playoff minutes played in the previous campaign (Hachimura, James, Smart, Kennard, Ayton).
James' former podcast partner J.J. Redick has all of the answers during postgame press conferences, so it will be interesting to see how successful he is coaching this team without James around to cover up for his coaching gaffes. Any team with Doncic and a decent supporting cast should at least make the playoffs. The question is how far can the Lakers advance with Redick calling the shots and without James around--and the likely answer is a first round exit.
7) Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija steadily improved during his first three seasons in Washington, became a double figure scorer in his fourth season, and then blossomed in the past two years in Portland. After averaging a career-high 16.9 ppg in 2024-25, Avdija poured in a team-high 24.2 ppg last season while also averaging 6.9 rpg and 6.7 apg to narrowly miss joining the 25-5-5 Club. He earned his first All-Star selection, and drew praise for his aggressive forays to the hoop that enabled him to rank second in the league with 9.2 FTA/game.
Toumani Camara led the team in total minutes (2731) and games played (82). He is an outstanding defensive player who also chipped in 13.4 ppg and 5.1 rpg. Jrue Holiday averaged 16.3 ppg--his highest scoring season since 2022-23--but he only played in 53 games. Donovan Clingan averaged 12.1 ppg, a team-high 11.6 rpg, and a league-leading 4.5 offensive rebounds per game.
It will be interesting to see how the players who led the Trail Blazers to their first playoff appearance since 2021 will be impacted by the addition of two small, ball-dominant guards to the mix: Damian Lillard and Ja Morant are both high-usage players who are minus defenders.
The Trail Blazers will welcome back Lillard, the franchise's all-time leading scorer, after a three year absence. Portland signed Lillard last summer after he spent two seasons in Milwaukee, but he missed all of last season with a ruptured left Achilles that he suffered while playing for the Bucks during the first round of the 2025 playoffs. Portland traded Jeremi Grant and Kris Murray for Morant, a two-time All-Star who recently has not been able to stay healthy or keep out of trouble.
The Trail Blazers are at their best when the ball is in Avdija's hands; every possession that begins or ends with Lillard or Morant takes the ball away from the team's most dangerous player. How good the Trail Blazers will be depends on the extent to which Lillard and Morant avoid hogging the ball to go one on one.
8) Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg struggled early in his rookie season while coach Jason Kidd played him at point guard, but after Kidd switched him back to his natural small forward position Flagg set several records, including most points by a teenager in a single game (51), first teenager to score at least 40 points in an NBA game, and first teenager to score at least 30 points in consecutive games. Flagg was also the first rookie to score at least 45 points in consecutive games since 1962. He averaged 21.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg, and 4.5 apg in 70 games, leading the team in scoring while ranking second in assists. In his final six games, Flagg scored 29.2 ppg in just 30.0 mpg with shooting splits of .474/.429/.949. Unlike many high octane offensive players, Flagg is also a good defensive player. Great players often make a leap in their second year, and if Flagg does that then the Mavericks should be good enough to at least qualify for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
The Mavericks had a busy offseason. They hired Masai Ujiri--the architect of Toronto's 2019 championship team--as team president, and then Ujiri hired Dusty May to replace Kidd as the coach. May led Michigan to the 2026 NCAA title, but the jump from coaching the collegiate game to coaching in the professional ranks is a huge one. Ujiri made several personnel moves, including adding veteran big man Santi Aldama, versatile forward Zaccharie Risacher (the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft), and Michigan rookie Morez Johnson Jr. while subtracting Klay Thompson, Ryan Nembhard, and Marvin Bagley III.
Perhaps the most significant "addition" is Kyrie Irving, who missed the entire season with a left ACL tear. If the 34 year old Irving still has some bounce in his step then that will take pressure off of Flagg and create matchup problems for opposing defenses. Irving averaged 24.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 4.6 apg in 50 games with the Mavericks in 2024-25 before injuring his knee.
The Mavericks are not a championship contender, but with Irving and Flagg running the offense and Daniel Gafford anchoring the defense they can pose problems even to the elite teams.
The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Phoenix Suns went 45-37 last season and qualified for the playoffs despite sending Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets in a seven team deal. The Suns will make the Play-In Tournament to have a shot at earning a playoff berth, but I expect Dallas and Portland to be just a little better than the Suns by the end of the season.
The Golden State Warriors stood pat with an aging roster that posted a 37-45 record last season. They have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since overcoming a 2-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals. Stephen Curry averaged 26.6 ppg last season--his highest scoring average since he scored 29.4 ppg in the 2022-23 season--but he played in just 43 games and he has played in at least 70 games twice in the past nine seasons. Jimmy Butler (20.0 ppg) played 38 games before suffering a season-ending right ACL tear, and he is unlikely to return to action until at least January 2027.
Last season, the Utah Jazz went 4-23 down the stretch--including 1-11 in their final 12 games--to tank their way to the bottom of the Western Conference standings. Now that the NBA has changed rules to remove incentives for tanking, such a collapse is less likely. The Jazz will not be a playoff team, but with second overall pick Darryn Peterson joining Lauri Markkanen (26.7 ppg in 42 games last season), Keyonte George (23.6 ppg in 54 games), and second year player Ace Bailey (13.8 ppg in 72 games) the Jazz have a solid young group that should win 35-40 games next season.
The L.A. Clippers' prospects for the next several years are limited due to the five first round draft picks that the NBA took away as part of the penalty for the salary cap circumvention pertaining to the signing of Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers sent Leonard to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick, which represented a talent downgrade for the Clippers even before it was determined that Ingram has a partially torn right Achilles that will force him to miss the start of the season. Ty Lue is an excellent coach, but even he will not be able to drag this team to the playoffs. The Clippers lack size--they ranked 29th in the league in rebounding last season--and it will be very difficult to replace Leonard's scoring, playmaking, and defensive versatility.
After posting the third worst record (25-57) in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies traded Ja Morant to the Portland Trail Blazers in exchange for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. They also acquired Isaiah Stewart and Quentin Post to bolster their frontcourt, and they shipped Santi Aldama to the Dallas Mavericks in a multi-team deal that yielded A.J. Johnson plus three draft picks. The Grizzlies selected Cameron Boozer with the third overall pick, and they hope that he will be the cornerstone of their rebuilding project. The net result of those moves is that the Grizzlies have a bigger, tougher, and more defensive-minded team. They will not make the playoffs, but they are on the right track after advancing past the first round once since 2015 and missing the playoffs in two of the past three seasons.
Since the New Orleans Pelicans drafted Zion Williamson seven years ago, he has played at least 70 games in a season once and he has yet to play in a playoff game (the Pelicans lost in the first round without him in 2022 and 2024). It is not going out on a limb to predict that Williamson will play less than 70 games this season and the Pelicans will miss the playoffs for the third season in a row.
The Sacramento Kings should be renamed the Paupers. Since the Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown on December 27, 2024, they have posted a 49-84 record; meanwhile, Brown landed in New York, where he led the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973. The Kings waived DeMar DeRozan, who averaged 18.4 ppg (second on the team) last season, and they did not re-sign Russell Westbrook, who led the team with 6.7 apg. Perhaps the Kings missed the memo that tanking no longer results in receiving a top draft pick (not that the Kings would know what to do with a top draft pick if they got one).
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Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2025: 5/8
2024: 5/8
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2026 Total: 129/168 (.768)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 PM
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