Dallas Versus Golden State Preview
Western Conference Finals
#4 Dallas (52-30) vs. #3 Golden State (53-29)
Season series: Dallas, 3-1
Golden State can win if…the Mavericks forget how to play defense and let the Warriors get comfortable behind the three point arc. The Warriors rank first in the 2022 playoffs in assists per game, third in three pointers made per game, and fourth in three point field goal percentage. Move the ball around and then shoot open three pointers is their main offensive strategy, supplemented by backcuts to the hoop if the opposing team overcommits to denying three point shots.
Stephen Curry is leading the Warriors in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) but he has posted a playoff career-low .359 three point field goal percentage. Klay Thompson's 2022 playoff numbers are right around his career norms, but he seems to have lost a step defensively after coming back from two serious leg injuries. First-time All-Star Andrew Wiggins is averaging 14.5 ppg in the playoffs after scoring 17.2 ppg during the regular season, so the Warriors' third option in the playoffs has been Jordan Poole (18.5 ppg). During the 2022 playoffs, Poole has had two 30 point games, and two games during which he scored eight points or less. He shot .600 or better from the field in five playoff games, and he shot .333 or worse in five playoff games. Feast or famine is an understatement regarding his play; he could be the first option one game, and the eighth option the next game.
Draymond Green is a fascinating player. He is praised for his basketball IQ, yet he exercises such little control over his emotions that he has a history of being ejected or suspended from games, including crucial playoff games. The Warriors rely on his defense and passing, but they are sometimes hindered by his reluctance to shoot. It is indisputable that some of the intangibles that he provides are valuable for a winning team, yet he would probably be close to worthless on a bad team: a team that has no defensive identity and that has players who are unwilling or unable to cut to the hoop at the right time would not benefit from Green's defense, screening, and passing; if he were a team's best player, that team would most likely be in the Draft Lottery--and yet, even though he is a limited player in some respects, the Warriors are clearly not as good when he is out of the lineup due to injury, foul trouble, or suspension.
As Green heads down the backstretch of his career, he has become more vocal in both traditional media and social media; he knows that his playing career will probably last 15 years at the most, but that if he plays his cards right he can collect checks as a media member for 30 years or more. The things he says are often not particularly smart, but he is smart in terms of knowing how to position himself for the next phase in his life. Other players might be criticized for dabbling in so many different things while playing for a team with championship aspirations, but most media members already treat Green as if he were one of their own.
Dallas will win because…the Mavericks are a vastly improved defensive team that can pose matchup challenges for the Warriors, because the Mavericks have more depth than the Warriors--and because Luka Doncic has arguably been the best player in the 2022 playoffs.
First year Dallas Coach Jason Kidd--who was the point guard for Dallas' 2011 championship team--has done a very impressive job transforming the Mavericks from an indifferent defensive team to a strong defensive team. An important part of that process was getting Doncic to buy into the notion that he must at least give effort on defense. Opposing teams used to "hunt" Doncic by trying to get him switched onto the primary ballhandler, but that is happening less frequently now. Kidd demonstrated a genius level basketball IQ as a player, and he has done well in his previous coaching jobs, though media members seem to be reluctant to give him credit.
There is a simple way to gauge Kidd's immediate impact: after the Mavericks won the 2011 title, they did not advance past the first round of the playoffs until this year. Rick Carlisle is widely praised as a great coach, but under his reign the Mavericks got bounced in the first round (or failed to make the playoffs at all) for over a decade.
Four Warriors are scoring in double figures in the playoffs, but six Mavericks are scoring in double figures in the playoffs. Doncic leads the way, of course, but Jalen Brunson (22.9 ppg), Spencer Dinwiddie (13.2 ppg), Dorian Finney-Smith (11.6 ppg), Reggie Bullock (10.2 ppg), and Max Kleber (10.1 ppg) are playing well enough that opposing teams cannot just focus on Doncic.
Of course, improved defense and greater depth would be of limited value without a superstar who creates matchup problems every game. Doncic ranks second in playoff scoring this season (31.5 ppg, just .2 ppg behind Giannis Antetokounmpo). Doncic also ranks sixth in playoff assists (6.6 apg), and eighth in playoff rebounding (10.1 rpg). Doncic's combination of elite level scoring and clutch shotmaking with high level rebounding and playmaking is reminiscent of a young LeBron James. Essentially, Doncic is LeBron James circa 2007, but with less jumping ability and fewer national TV ads. A great player's presence provides a sense of security for his teammates, and sows doubts in opponents. The Mavericks know that they have a chance in every game because Doncic is going to play at a high level--and their opponents know that Doncic can erupt for 30, 40, or even 50 points while also keeping his teammates involved.
The Mavericks do not have a second All-Star, but they have a roster full of very good players who can do multiple things well. That is another similarity between Luka Doncic's Mavericks and young LeBron James' Cavaliers; people who don't understand basketball often said that James lacked a good supporting cast, failing to recognize that there are players who are very good even if they are not "name brand" players, and also failing to realize that sometimes how a particular group meshes at both ends of the court matters more than the raw talent that a roster has. I understood the Cavaliers' potential early on, and I correctly picked them to go to the 2007 NBA Finals at a time when many "experts" did not think that the Cavaliers could beat the Detroit Pistons in a playoff series, but I must confess that when the 2022 playoffs began I was a bit skeptical of Doncic's supporting cast. I am not skeptical now.
Other things to consider: Some commentators act like the Golden State Warriors are the defending champions while the Dallas Mavericks are scruffy outsiders who crashed the playoff party. The back to back champion Warriors were led by Kevin Durant, and featured a fully healthy Klay Thompson. What the Warriors accomplished in 2017-18 has nothing to do with this series, because--until proven otherwise on the court--the best player in this series is Luka Doncic, who just destroyed the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in game seven in Phoenix.
One win separated Golden State and Dallas over an 82 game regular season, and the Mavericks won the head to head series, 3-1. Head to head regular season numbers can be skewed by injuries, load management, one team playing a back to back set, and so forth, but the larger point is that there is no objective reason to believe that the Warriors are in a different class right now than the Mavericks.
The Warriors are perceived to be this unstoppable offensive juggernaut, but in the 2022 playoffs the Mavericks rank first in three pointers made per game and third in three point field goal percentage. The Mavericks will not be afraid to get into a three point shooting contest with the Warriors--and the Mavericks also have a superstar who can score in the paint off of drives or postups.
In the 2022 playoffs, the Warriors have beaten the Denver Nuggets sans Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and the Memphis Grizzlies, who did not have Ja Morant for the final three games of that six game series. The Warriors have not been seriously challenged yet, and they have not looked consistently great even against limited opposition--but now the Warriors will be facing a very good team at full strength.
In contrast, the Mavericks eliminated a good Utah team that was at full strength, and then the Mavericks knocked out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns, the reigning Western Conference champions. The current Mavericks are playoff tested. The Durant-led Warriors were playoff tested, but the 2022 Warriors are not that team.
Dallas will win in six games.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 10:56 PM
6 Comments:
Well I was right about Golden State handling Memphis but refreshingly wrong about Dallas being doomed!
Since I think Golden State will beat us this round I guess we'll find out whether my analysis of Golden State is mightier than my hopefully wrongheaded paranoia about Dallas. Would love to be wrong again.
I think Luka will have another very strong series though Golden State will probably turn him over a lot more than Phoenix did. I have less faith that our defense will be able to slow Golden State. They're most bothered by physicality and length and we're more of a finesse defense even if we do have decently rangy wings. Kidd likes to trap scorers but that will be death against Curry for a team with no rim protection behind the double so either DFS or Bullock will have to handle him alone and while I love them both I'm not sure either has the footspeed to track him off-ball.
Golden State's approach to Jokic and Ja was to single-cover them and live with the results while shutting down everyone else. I imagine they'll do the same with Luka. Unfortunately that usually works on us unless Brunson has a big night so that's our big X Factor. Not sure who they cover him with. Presumably Wiggins will be busy on Luka so maybe Klay? Length can bother Brunson but hopefully he's quick enough to beat this version of Klay. Curry could probably guard him ok but that would be a win for us as it would tire him out so I doubt GSW goes to it too much. We're fortunate GP is out. He's the absolute worst kind of defender for Brunson. He might have been able to bother Luka a little too though I'd like to think Luka would figure him out after a game or two.
Dinwiddie will have about 2 good games and a lot more bad ones. We need to win his good ones to have a chance.
My heart says Mavs in 7 but my head says Warriors in 5, maybe 6. They're a worse matchup for us on both sides of the ball than Phoenix was and less likely to completely melt down in an elimination game.
Anonymous:
Golden State won the series, but did they "handle" Memphis? They beat a team that did not have its best player for the last three games of the series. Injuries are part of the game, so whoever picked Golden State was right and whoever picked Memphis was wrong, but I would not say that Golden State "handled" Memphis.
Your analysis of the matchups is interesting. We'll see what happens. I agree that the Mavericks would benefit from having more length and physicality.
Golden State sans Durant blew a 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals, so I am not sure what this version of the Warriors would do if they face elimination. I think that the Warriors are a very good team that is also a bit overrated.
Well there is a lot of room between losing a close elimination game to Lebron James and Kyrie Irving down the stretch and the egg Phoenix just laid for us, haha. That's all I meant.
In the four seasons before they got Durant the Warriors were 4-3 in elimination games and they then went 1-1 against the Raptors in elimination games after his injury. It is not a stellar record but it is also not a bad one. Their losses were by 12 points (Spurs), 5 points (Clippers), 4 points (Cavaliers) and 4 points (Raptors) so they never really rolled over in those games except maybe against San Antonio but that was their first playoffs and probably the least relevant to the current version. They also forced their Play-In game last year to overtime before losing to Memphis by 5.
Funnily enough their combined margin in those five games is still three points less than what we did to the Suns.
I am not saying we can't beat them and I think if our role players step up in the right games we definitely can but I do not think they are very likely to make it as easy for us as Phoenix did on Sunday.
We probably need to win the three point battle to beat them as we are not a great rebounding or turnover forcing team but unlike Memphis we actually do have the shooters to do that four times in seven games I think. Whether or not we will and whether or not if we do it matters will depend how effective our non-Luka ballhandlers can be I think.
I am a little afraid that we will need to beat them twice in San Francisco given their streak of winning at least one road game per series so we need our role players to show up for at least two out of four of those games. We have not been consistent about that so far to the point that Coach Kidd was getting a bit cranky about it early in the Phoenix series but hopefully Game 7 was a turning point. Momentum is real, right?
Anonymous:
Aesthetically or stylistically there is a difference, but the end result is the same: the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead and lost, and the Suns blew a 2-0 lead and lost. It is interesting that you credit the Warriors with "forcing overtime" versus Memphis in last year's Play-In Tournament. I would rephrase that: the Warriors lost a home game in the Play-In Tournament, squandering an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs. Would anyone praise Kobe Bryant for losing a home game with a chance to make the playoffs? No. So let's not act like that "feat" is a great line on the resume for Curry's Warriors. His fans always want to call the Warriors his team, not Durant's team--but Curry owns that loss a lot more than he owns the two titles that Durant provided to him.
You make a good point about Dallas possibly having to win two road games. The value of home court advantage is not only having game seven at home but also having that leeway that if you win one road game then the other team has to win two road games.
All that being said, I still like the Mavericks. It will be a closely contested and intriguing series, but the Mavericks were probably underrated coming into the playoffs (I picked against them twice, so I am guilty of that as well) and the Warriors were probably overrated coming into the playoffs. If the Warriors win, I expect it will be a seven game series.
I think you possibly read more into my comment than I meant by it. I know that the Warriors can lose a lead in a series I just meant that I don't think they are as likely to roll over and quit or die in a home Game 7 as the Suns turned out to be. Elimination games in general and Game 7s especially are usually hard fought battles and it is rare for the home teams to completely belly flop the way the Suns did against us. The Warriors have no history of that kind of catastrophe in an elimination game as they usually play hard and lose by a possession or two if they lose.
I don't know what Kevin Durant or Kobe Bryant has to do with any of that. I am not making a proclamation about the historical place of the Warriors or Curry or comparing them to anyone but the team we just beat I am just trying to make an educated guess about my team's chances against them. If we make it to a Game 7 I will be very hopeful but not incredibly optimistic. I would not complain if Luka outscores them in the first half though haha.
If anything though they are more likely to fall asleep at the wheel when they do have a lead in a series and throw away mid-series games by not really showing up. It happened against Memphis in Game 5 last round even. Hopefully if they win Game 1 it'll happen against us sometime. But I don't think it will happen with their backs against the wall.
I think if we do win the series it will probably involve winning Game 1 though so here's hoping we don't have to find out.
I don't know how the Warriors were rated by people other than me and you before the playoffs. It seems I was higher on them than you were. I felt like they would probably lose to Milwaukee if the Bucks had their dudes and they seemed like a coin flip against Phoenix but I felt like they could probably beat everyone else. Boston has since shown themselves to be better than I thought so I could see them being a problem for the Warriors if it comes to that. They also don't look like a good matchup for my Mavs so go Miami!
Dallas is who I watched all season. They are a team carried by one great goofball star who has a puncher's chance against anyone but does not always get enough help from his supporting dudes. So I stand by what I think is a pretty cautiously optimistic stance that we can win if our role players play well particularly on the road but that they would need to do it more often than they have been so far given the talent on the other side. I will also stand by the idea that if we do beat them they will probably put up a lot more of a fight in the last game than Phoenix did. I mean every other team anyone has eliminated so far has so I don't think I'm totally out of pocket there haha.
Marcel
I got gs in 7
I think Luka a problem but the rest of the team not enough
Plus Wiggins looney Poole is tough to stop
Gs in 6
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