Oklahoma City Versus Denver Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #4 Denver (50-32)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Denver can win if…they bully the Thunder in the paint and slow down the Thunder's transition game. Nikola Jokic followed up his MVP-level regular season (29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2 apg) by averaging 24.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 10.1 apg as the Nuggets outlasted the L.A. Clippers in seven games; only three players have averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson (1962, four games), Jason Kidd (2007, 12 games), and Russell Westbrook (2017, five games; 2021, five games). In order to beat the Thunder, the Nuggets will not only need triple double production from Jokic but they will also need their frontcourt of Jokic, Aaron Gordon (18.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers), and Michael Porter Jr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers) to do a lot of damage in the paint.
How a team scores can often be as important as how much a team scores; by scoring in the paint, the Nuggets can control the tempo of the game to limit the Thunder's easy transition scoring opportunities while wearing down the Thunder's players, putting the Thunder's players into foul trouble, and creating more scoring opportunities from the free throw line by getting into the bonus. If the Nuggets are lured into an up and down game then the Thunder will run them out of the gym because the Thunder are a more athletic and deeper team.
Russell Westbrook, who won the 2017 regular season MVP while playing for the Thunder, could play a key role in this series because of his athleticism and his ability to attack the paint. He averaged 13.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 1.3 spg versus the Clippers.
On paper, this series is a mismatch in the Thunder's favor based on each team's overall statistics this season, but head to head these teams have been evenly matched for quite some time; it is not just their head to head record this season that is tied: Denver and Oklahoma City have split their last 16 games versus each other. Of course, the caveat for that statistic is that many of those games were played when Oklahoma City was tanking and the Nuggets were a championship team or at least a championship contender.
If the Nuggets play at their absolute best and the Thunder drop off in any way then the Nuggets could win this series, but the Thunder have a much larger margin for error.
Oklahoma City will win because...their suffocating defense will rule the day. During the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in points allowed (107.6 ppg), defensive field goal percentage (.436), and turnovers forced (17.0 tpg). They also led the league in fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg) while ranking a solid 11th in rebounding (44.8 rpg); they dominate the possession game and then they use their possessions efficiently, ranking fourth in scoring (120.5 ppg) and seventh in field goal percentage (.482). In their first round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder forced 77 turnovers while only committing 42 turnovers, and they held the Grizzlies to .415 field goal shooting, including .304 from beyond the arc.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, and 1.0 bpg during the first round. The presumptive regular season MVP shot poorly from the field (.402), but still had an impact at both ends of the court. Jalen Williams, who made the All-Star team for the first time, averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg during the first round. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and a team-high 2.8 bpg. Isaiah Hartenstein made his presence felt in the paint with 9.0 ppg on .640 field goal shooting plus a team-high 8.8 rpg. Lack of size was an issue for the Thunder during last year playoffs, but does not seem to be a problem this season after the addition of Hartenstein.
Other things to consider: This series features two of the three finalists for regular season MVP honors: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic (the third is Giannis Antetokounmpo). The winner will likely be announced while the series takes place. In 1995, San Antonio's David Robinson was announced as the regular season MVP and then was later torched by Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (the 1994 regular season MVP) in the Western Conference Finals: Olajuwon averaged 35.3 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, and 4.2 bpg while primarily being covered one on one by Robinson, who averaged 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.2 bpg as Houston won 4-2 en route to capturing the second of back to back NBA titles.
Jokic won the 2024 regular season MVP--his third such honor in a four year span--with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second, and that order will likely be switched this year in light of the Thunder's record-setting season. Unlike Olajuwon and Robinson, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will not battle each other one on one in this series (except for occasional defensive switches), but this series will nevertheless be viewed historically as a referendum on the 2025 regular season MVP voting. The reality is that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are both worthy candidates, just as Olajuwon and Robinson were in 1995. In 1995, Olajuwon was already an NBA champion who was about to win his second NBA title, while the nearly three years younger Robinson won both of his NBA titles several years later (1999, 2003). Jokic is a little more than three years older than Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic won the NBA championship in 2023, while Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to win an NBA title.
In my 2025 Playoff Predictions article, I explained why I would select Jokic as the regular season MVP, and I anticipated an Oklahoma City-Denver second round matchup, favoring Oklahoma City in six games. Nothing that I saw in the first round altered my thought process on either count. I still think that Jokic is the NBA's best all-around player, and I still think that Oklahoma City will win this series.
Oklahoma City will defeat Denver in six games.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 PM
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