20 Second Timeout

Denver Versus Phoenix Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#3 Denver (47-25) vs. #2 Phoenix (51-21)

Season series: Denver, 2-1

Phoenix can win if…Devin Booker is the best player on the court, if Deandre Ayton is able to contain Nikola Jokic without needing too much double-team assistance, and if Chris Paul is able to produce more than the "triple singles" that he posted during the first round. Booker (29.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.0 apg, .488 FG%) was easily the best player on either team as the Suns defeated the L.A. Lakers 4-2, while Ayton (15.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, .796 FG%--no, the latter number is not a typo!) dominated the Lakers in the paint. Booker has been the Suns' best player all season long, but perhaps it took the Suns winning even after Paul was limited by injury for more people to recognize how versatile and valuable Booker is. Other than Booker and Ayton, none of the Suns' seven main rotation players shot better than .415 from the field versus the Lakers, but the Suns held the Lakers to .414 field goal shooting so the Suns could survive and advance despite only having efficient offensive contributions from their two best players.

Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA, and he is surrounded by an excellent supporting cast. Jokic averaged 33.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg, and 4.5 apg with shooting splits of .528/.429/.917 as the Nuggets beat the Portland Trail Blazers 4-2 in the first round. Michael Porter Jr. ranked second on the Nuggets in scoring (18.8 ppg) and rebounding (6.7 rpg) versus Portland as the Nuggets overcame the absence of injured guards Jamal Murray and Will Barton.

Other things to consider: Denver reached the Western Conference Finals last season, and the Nuggets have had one of the top three regular season records in the West in each of the past three seasons. This is a young team, but not an inexperienced team in terms of ranking among the elite and in terms of making an extended playoff run. In contrast, most of Phoenix' players have little to no playoff experience, and even their veteran leader Chris Paul has made just one trip to the Western Conference Finals. It is rare that a team goes from being a non-contender to being a Conference Finalist in just one year. It is not impossible, and the Suns are clearly a very talented team, but the Nuggets' experience will be a factor, particularly in any games that are close.

Throughout his career, Paul has worn down and/or suffered an injury during the playoffs. He injured his right shoulder during the first game of the first round, and he had a subpar performance during that series (9.2 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.5 rpg, .386 FG%). The Suns advanced to the second round not because of Paul's play but despite Paul's ineffectiveness. The Suns overcame Paul's injury because of the exceptional production of Booker and Ayton plus the even more serious injury suffered by the Lakers' Anthony Davis. 

The Nuggets are still without the services of injured All-Star guard Jamal Murray (Will Barton may be available versus the Suns), but overall their roster is healthier and deeper than the Lakers' roster that was overwhelmed by the Suns' speed, quickness, and athleticism. If Paul is not able to play much better than he did in the first round then the Suns have no chance, but even if Paul is close to 100% I still expect the Nuggets to prevail.

Denver will defeat Phoenix in six games. 

Labels: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Denver Nuggets, Devin Booker, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 9:15 PM

1 comments