Second Day of NBA Playoffs Highlighted by Jayson Tatum's Buzzer Beater
The NBA's second quadrupleheader of the weekend featured the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks, and the top seeded teams in the East (Miami Heat) and the West (Phoenix Suns), but it will always be remembered for Jayson Tatum's buzzer beater to cap the epic first game of the Boston-Brooklyn series. My recaps for Saturday's four games are here.
Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:
Miami 115, Atlanta 91
While teams like Brooklyn and Philadelphia received most of the media's attention throughout the season, the Miami Heat grinded their way to the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Atlanta Hawks, fresh off of their appearance in the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals, struggled for most of this season before beating Charlotte and Cleveland in the Play-In Tournament to clinch the eighth seed.
This series would be a mismatch in Miami's favor even if Atlanta were at full strength, but injuries to Clint Capela (who will be out of action for at least another week) and John Collins--who returned for game one after missing more than a month due to finger and foot injuries--crippled the Hawks' frontcourt depth.
The Heat raced out to a 21-11 lead, but by the end of the quarter the Hawks trimmed the margin to six (23-17) despite suffering through their worst field goal shooting quarter of the season (3-17, .176). The Heat shot 9-21 (.429) from the field, and no player from either team scored more than five points. Both teams committed five turnovers.
The Heat blew the game open in the second quarter, pushing their lead to 59-38 after Gabe Vincent's three pointer with less than a minute remaining. Miami led 59-40 at halftime. Duncan Robinson paced a balanced Heat attack with 11 points on 4-5 field goal shooting. The Heat shot 21-40 from the field (.538), including 10-19 (.556) from three point range, while the Hawks shot 11-38 from the field (.297), including 2-18 (.118) from three point range. This was the Hawks' worst shooting half of the season. Danilo Gallinari scored 14 points on 4-8 field goal shooting, but Trae Young had just eight points on 1-9 field goal shooting.
Young could neither find his shooting stroke nor create open shots for his teammates in the third quarter, and the Heat led 86-60 heading into the fourth quarter. The teams essentially traded baskets in the fourth quarter, with the Hawks never mounting even the semblance of a serious threat.
Robinson scored a game-high 27 points and set a Heat franchise playoff single game record by making eight three pointers. He shot 9-10 from the field, including 8-9 from three point range. Jimmy Butler scored 21 points on 9-15 field goal shooting, while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and three steals. Gallinari led the Hawks with 17 points on 5-12 field goal shooting. Young finished with eight points on 1-12 field goal shooting.
The Heat are at a different level than the Hawks, whose Eastern Conference Finals run last season is looking more and more like a fluke: the Hawks are a solid team, but hardly a legitimate title contender. It is unlikely that Young will be completely shut down like this again, but it is also unlikely that the Hawks will pose much of a threat to win this series.
Boston 115, Brooklyn 114
Tatum led the Celtics with 31 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. He also had four rebounds and a team-high eight assists. Jaylen Brown, who played down the stretch with cotton swabs in both nostrils to stop bleeding, scored 23 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, and he swiped a team-high four steals. Smart added 20 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, plus seven rebounds, six assists, and two steals. Horford had 20 points on 8-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high 15 rebounds. Irving poured in a game-high 39 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, and he filled up the rest of the boxscore with six assists, five rebounds, and four steals. Irving scored 18 fourth quarter points, nearly matching Boston's total for the final stanza. Durant contributed 24 points, but he shot just 9-24 from the field, and he had more turnovers (six) than rebounds (four) or assists (three). Irving was the only Nets' starter who had a positive plus/minus number (+6), while Durant had a -13 plus/minus number. Goran Dragic (14 points) and Nic Claxton (13 points, eight rebounds) made solid contributions off of the bench, but this game highlighted how much more overall talent and depth the Celtics have: Irving and Durant combined for 63 points on 21-44 field goal shooting--which is what one could reasonably expect from the duo, even if one might expect Irving to shoot a little worse and Durant to shoot better--and that was still not quite enough to win; that will likely be the story throughout the series: Durant and Irving will average around 60 ppg combined, and the Celtics will advance to the second round.
Milwaukee 93, Chicago 86
The Bucks opened the game with a 9-0 run in the first 1:33, and it looked like they planned to tame the Bulls the same way that the Heat silenced the Hawks, but instead the Bucks were outscored the remaining 46:27 of the game. The collapse did not happen immediately, though, and the Bucks led 34-21 at the end of the first quarter as Giannis Antetokounmpo scored nine points and grabbed eight rebounds. Antetokounmpo had 17 first half points and 11 first half rebounds, but by halftime the Bulls had pulled to within 51-43.
The Bucks have advantages in size, top level talent, and overall depth, but it is important to remember that the Bulls have several excellent players, including DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. Matchup advantages on paper do not win games; exploitation of matchup advantages on the court wins games.
The Bulls took a 67-64 lead on Coby White's three pointer at the 3:11 mark of the third quarter, and shortly after that they went up 69-64. The Bulls have performed horribly against good teams all season long, but with less than 15 minutes remaining in the game the Bucks seemed to have lost their way before Antetokounmpo's three point play put them up 74-71 heading into the fourth quarter.
The fourth quarter was ugly and low scoring, and the Bulls not only led 78-77 with less than six minutes remaining but they were down by only one point, 87-86, with 1:36 remaining. Neither team made a field goal in the final 1:24, and the Bucks closed out the win by sinking their final four free throw attempts.
Antetokounmpo finished with a game-high 27 points on 10-19 field goal shooting, and he grabbed a team-high 16 rebounds. His plus/minus number of +19 was eight points better than any other Buck's plus/minus number; he came to play, but his supporting cast did not consistently follow his lead. Brook Lopez was a major factor with 18 points on 7-14 field goal shooting, five rebounds, and stout defense. Jrue Holiday was OK, but not great, with 15 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds and six assists. The Bucks need more from Khris Middleton (11 points on 4-13 field goal shooting, plus six assists and five rebounds). The Bulls were done in by poor field goal shooting: Vucevic scored 24 points but shot just 9-27 from the field, DeRozan had 18 points on 6-25 field goal shooting, and LaVine added 18 points on 6-19 field goal shooting. When a team's three best scorers shoot 21-71 (.296) from the field it is very difficult to win.
The Bucks played a very sloppy brand of basketball in the second half, tallying 14 field goals made and 14 turnovers. They shot just .345 from the field after the first quarter. They will win this series, but the larger issue is that they must raise their game to a much higher level to beat whoever they will face in the second round. One wonders how much the Bucks' decision to hunt this matchup by sitting their starters in the final regular season game impacted their mindset and preparation, but I am a firm believer that when you mess with the game the game will mess with you. The Bucks very much wanted to face the Bulls, and the Bucks would be well-advised to focus on the task at hand as opposed to possibly looking forward to playing in the second round and beyond.
Phoenix 110, New Orleans 99
The New Orleans Pelicans were the last team to qualify for the playoffs, and they are the only 2022 playoff team with a losing regular season record. For most of this game, they looked like they are on course to be the first team eliminated from the playoffs. The Suns led 28-16 by the end of the first quarter, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as the Pelicans put up in the first 24 minutes. By halftime, the Suns were up 53-34, and the main question seemed to be whether the Suns could hold the Pelicans under 65 points--but the Pelicans came to life (or perhaps the Suns fell asleep) in the third quarter, cutting the margin to as low as seven (76-69), and heading into the fourth quarter with the game very much in the balance as the Suns were only up 79-71. The fourth quarter turned into the Chris Paul show, as the Suns' point guard erupted for 19 points to make sure that the Pelicans never got closer than six points the rest of the way. The Suns led by double digits in the final 8:45 except for two brief moments when the Pelicans shaved the margin to nine points.
Paul finished with a game-high 30 points on 12-16 field goal shooting, and he also led both teams with 10 assists. His +20 plus/minus number was nine points better than the next best player. He also had seven rebounds, three steals, one blocked shot, and just two turnovers. Devin Booker added 25 points and eight assists, but he shot just 8-19 from the field. Deandre Ayton scored 21 points on 10-15 field goal shooting while also grabbing nine rebounds and blocking four shots.
C.J. McCollum topped the Pelicans with 25 points, but he shot just 9-25 from the field. He led the Pelicans in assists (six) and he ranked second in rebounds (eight). Brandon Ingram shot 6-17 from the field to score 18 points, and Jonas Valanciunas shot 7-21 from the field for his 18 points, though Valanciunas also did yeoman's work on the glass with a playoff career-high 25 rebounds.
The bottom line is that after a nearly flawless first half the Suns did more than enough in the second half to win the game.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns
posted by David Friedman @ 3:01 AM
12 Comments:
I'm surprised you think the Celtics have more depth and talent than the Nets. And if that's the case, this series shouldn't be close. The Celtics seemed to play about as well as they could and they needed a buzzer beater at home to win. The Celtics only played 8 guys. 1 guy(Pritchard) shouldn't be part of any playoff rotation and another guy(Theis) would barely be playing if Robert Williams was healthy. I don't recognize anyone else who didn't play that should be apart of a playoff rotation. Whereas the Nets can go at least 13 deep if necessary(not counting Simmons), though no team wants to play that many in the playoffs. They're one of the deepest teams I've ever seen. I also didn't see how the Celtics have more talent, please explain. Durant>Tatum, Irving>Brown, Smart>B. Brown. Usually we talk about talent level concerning the top 2-3 players on a team. Horford slight edge over Drummond, Curry over Theis. I'd take the Nets bench over the Celtics bench easily. The Celtics are tough-kind of a bad matchup for the the Nets, but the Nets should win even without Simmons. The Nets are a top 2 favorite for the title.
I understand what you're saying about the start of the 4th, but the Nets scored 22 points in the first 6:30. That's on pace for 162 points/game. Yes, the Celtics only had 6 points in that span, but even if they had their average scoring for 6:30, that'd be about 8 more points, and their 11-point lead at the end of 3 would still be cut to 3. Their defense was their primary problem.
Nash made some weird decisions keeping Brown/Curry in the 1st after each committed early 2nd fouls though neither committed a 3rd in the 1st, and keeping Drummond in the 1st half with 3 fouls before he picked up his 4th. He has backups for Drummond, and Drummond still only played 17 minutes compared to Claxton's 31 minutes. Drummond did well in his 17 minutes, but he needs to stay out of early foul trouble.
Anonymous:
I picked the Celtics to win in six games. The games themselves may be close, but I don't expect the series to last seven games.
After game one, it is easy for supporters of either team to craft a positive narrative. The pro-Nets' narrative is what you asserted, that the Celtics played "as well as they could and they needed a buzzer beater at home to win." The pro-Celtics' narrative is that Durant and Irving scored 62 points on .477 field goal shooting and the Nets found 52 points from the rest of the roster but that still was not enough to win. The Celtics are potent both offensively and defensively, so the Nets are either going to have to hold them underneath 110-115 points or else find a way to score more than 110-115 points in four games.
Therefore, I believe that the Celtics can play at the same level as game one, or possibly even better, while I am not sure that the Nets can consistently play better than they did in game one. Sure, Durant will probably play better, but Irving is unlikely to average 39 ppg on .600 field goal shooting.
Regarding whether Boston's primary fourth quarter problem was offense or defense, obviously both were problematic but another factor to consider is that bad shots and/or missed shots fuel the other team's transition game. How many shots in the paint did Boston miss during that stretch that enabled Brooklyn to attack in transition instead of facing Boston's set defense?
The last two possessions symbolized this series for me: the Nets relied on Durant shooting a tough three pointer, while the Celtics had five players touch the ball before Tatum hit the game-winning layup. Over the course of the series, Boston's collective advantages at both ends of the court will be the difference.
Yes, I understand all that reasoning. Though I wouldn't say Durant/Irving combining for 62 points on .477 shooting as extreme or even above average. Boston does have a solid defense, but this is basically their season averages. They combined to score 57ppg in the regular season with Durant shooting 52% and Irving 47%. Durant's TOs were a problem though which usually led to fastbreak opportunities for Boston.
The only Nets' players who played well or average for their respective selves were Irving(very well), Dragic, and Claxton. The Nets have a lethal offense at full strength. 114 points would be their norm, maybe slightly below average with their current rotation. They seem like they have a lot of room for improvement unlike Boston who pretty much seemed at their max ability in game 1. The problem for the Nets is lots of injuries this season, lots of new faces midseason, and Irving's part-time status. They didn't have much time to mesh. Whereas Boston is meshing extremely well now. Though Boston needed to finish the season 30-6 just to get to 51 wins. A season of extremes for Boston. They're playing great, but their thin rotation will be a problem. But given now that Boston is up 1-0, it does seem quite difficult for Brooklyn to be able to win 4 out of 6 games. But if Brooklyn wins game 2, they definitely have the edge going forward in the series.
I'm confused why you think Boston has more talent and depth, especially depth. Not that this means a team with more of each would necessarily win the series. I see Brooklyn being able to go 13+ deep if that was ever necessary. Unless Aldridge is hurt, he can still play well as a role player for sure. Boston would definitely use him if they had him. I'm only seeing 7, maybe 8, guys for Boston who would even be capable of being a rotation player for a playoff team.
Anonymous:
I don't recall suggesting that the combined Durant/Irving production was "extreme or even above average." In fact, I stated that this is the approximate level of production I expect them to average by the end of the series. It might be better in some games (and worse in others), but I would not expect the series-ending average to be much higher than 62 ppg on .477 shooting, so I disagree with you that there is much room for improvement there.
Some individual Nets may play better in the upcoming games, but Dragic and Claxton may also play worse. I don't see the Nets averaging more than 114 ppg in this series.
We may be defining depth differently. I am talking about versatile and functional depth--how many players a team can put on the court who can contribute in multiple ways without having weaknesses that can be exploited. The Nets' best scoring lineups include smaller players like Curry and Mills who do not help much defensively or on the glass. The Nets' best defensive lineups have limitations in terms of shooting and playmaking (outside of Durant, who will need to play at an almost superhuman level for the Nets to win this series). No team is going to put 13 different warm bodies into a playoff game, so whether or not a team has 13 functional players is not relevant unless there are a slew of injuries, disqualifications, and/or suspensions. I rate Boston's seven to eight player rotation, as a collective unit, higher than I rate Brooklyn's seven to eight player rotation, as a collective unit. I might think differently if a healthy and motivated Ben Simmons shows up, but that has not happened, and we don't know when/if that will happen.
I know you didn't say extreme. Just disagreeing on how game 1 is a pro-Celtics narrative. I saw mostly negatives for Brooklyn and mostly positives for Boston, and Brooklyn still had the lead until the final second. Claxton averaged 9 and 6 in 21mpg in the regular season. Going for 13 and 8 in 31 minutes is basically just on par with that. Dragic might not do better or a well, but if Brooklyn plays average collectively compared to Boston's average collectively, Brooklyn should win.
I understand what you mean with Boston having less holes for their weaknesses with certain lineups, but Brooklyn still has a lot more depth overall. They have a lot more options and varieties. Their small-ball lineup with 4 guards made no sense though. That has to stop. If Curry, Drummond, and Brown contributed how they normally do, Brooklyn would've been fine.
Anonymous:
I said that after a one point game, fans of both teams can craft a narrative favoring their team; I would not expect fans of either team to expect their team to lose at this point. I find the pro-Celtics narrative to be more realistic based on the matchups, and based on the teams' season-long tendencies.
Perhaps Curry, Drummond, and Brown did not "contribute how they normally do" because the matchups are not favorable for them. That takes us back to my overall view of this series: for the Nets to win, Durant and Irving will have to produce more than 60 ppg each game AND the Nets will still have to find 50 ppg or more from the rest of their players AND the Nets will have to hold the Celtics to 115 ppg or less. Durant and Irving are so talented that I can see the Nets winning two games, but not four games.
I don't think Durant/Irving necessarily have to combine for 60ppg for Brooklyn to win, though obviously that would help. Brooklyn has so much firepower, though the role players stepping up each game may be different. Their role players are definitely doing well enough for this series to at least be tied 1-1. In game 2, Durant/Irving were miserable going 8-30 for 37 points. Brooklyn still led most of the game and only lost by 7. Unless Brooklyn was playing a non-playoff team or maybe one of the weakest playoff teams, they're very unlikely to win any game when they're playing like that.
Like I often say, most series boil down to each team's top player and/or top 2-3 players. The rest is just noise and moving parts usually. This is what is happening so far in this series. Boston's winning the star matchup. If Brooklyn was winning it, Brooklyn would be up 2-0 or the series tied at the very least. Smart/Horford are playing as well/better or at very least close to Durant's level so far through 2 games. The only things Durant is doing well so far is turning the ball over and scoring very inefficiently. He's the tallest player in the series while playing 42mpg. But yet, he's only tied for 9th out of all players in rebounding at 4rpg. And it's not like anyone is really rebounding that well except for Horford. Horford is the only player averaging more than 6.5rpg.
Anonymous:
A useful question you might want to ponder is, "Why is Durant struggling so much in this series?" Put another way and framed more broadly, "What is it about this five on five matchup that has favored Boston over Brooklyn up to this point?"
You may also want to consider that Durant is not missing shots, turning the ball over, and failing to get rebounds in a vacuum, and you may note that Boston has size, quickness, and defensive versatility at multiple positions. Unless you believe that Durant has mysteriously forgotten how to shoot, dribble, and rebound, you may want to consider the impact that the other team is having on his performance.
Perhaps things will change after the series shifts to Brooklyn for the next two games, but it is worth remembering that the team that wins the first two games in a seven game NBA playoff series wins the series over 92% of the time. Even if Brooklyn wins the next two games at home--which may very well happen--they will still need to win at least one game in Boston.
I suspect that after this series, you will insist that Brooklyn could and should have won the series if only they had played their normal game, oblivious to the reasons why the Nets struggled to play their normal game against the Celtics.
Hey David,
It was amusing watching both Irving and Durant seriously struggle so badly on the same they were being referred to as possibly the two most skilled players ever.
If the two most skilled players ever are having a bit of trouble with the physical defense of the 2022 Boston Celtics, you have to wonder how they would have handled themselves against the elite defensive teams of 10 or 20 years ago like the KG Celtics or the Duncan Spurs or the Ben Wallace Pistons, let alone classic 80s teams like the Pistons and the Celtics and the Lakers.
I looked it up and it seemed like the Celtics were using line-ups that did not really feature anyone taller than 6'10, yet a good amount of physical play seems to really bother 7 foot Kevin Durant.
Obviously, KD and Kyrie are indeed very skilled players but it was annoying to see J.J. Redick boasting about how amazing and skilled today's players are compared to anyone from before them only to watch them lay a rotten egg the moment a team lays any sort of hands on them.
Keith:
Generally, players and former players know what they are talking about, but there are exceptions to most rules, and J.J. Redick and Jay Williams are two exceptions to that rule. Redick's statement that Bob Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen" is disrespectful both to Cousy and to Cousy's opponents, and betrays Redick's ignorance of basketball history and basketball player evaluation.
Recency bias is a major problem for many basketball commentators.
A point that is often either overlooked or misunderstood is that the ability to function against physical defenses is not just reflected in shooting percentages but impact on the game: both Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant had game seven performances in which they did not shoot well against big, physical teams, but in those games they attacked the hoop, they drew double teams, and they rebounded, and those contributions helped their teams win. There is so much emphasis now on "advanced basketball statistics" and efficiency--which is defined in a very narrow way--that people lose sight of the ways that great players can impact a game and lead their teams to success even when they are not shooting well.
The Celtics don't have a "big" lineup but they do have a pretty long lineup especially when looking at their core group of Smart/Brown/Tatum/RWIII who all have great height or/or wingspan for their positions (and Tatum might be a few inches taller than listed). They're not as big/long as the 08-12 Celtics but they're not too far from them either. Speaking of 08-12 I was pretty surprised to see their measurements (outside of Ray) but shouldn't have as they were obviously an all-time defense and their unfair size/length contributed to that (they'd also have been better suited for today's game)
That said even though I wasn't expecting Brooklyn to win this series I was definitely expecting a more competitive series up to this point and a better performance out of both KD and Kyrie
Game 3 it seemed like KD was playing more to protect his putrid series fg% than to win. In contrast Tatum didn't shoot well and hasn't shot great this entire series but he's excelled on defense and as an all around threat with his scoring and playmaking, he hasn't played like someone fixated on fg% nor does he seem like someone that's game would change significantly with some added physicality
Cyber:
Yes, the Celtics lineup is long, and generally when I am referring to "big" lineups I mean height and/or length unless I specifically mention strength/weight. Anyone who has played basketball with even the vaguest understanding of what is happening on the court realizes the advantages that height confers. Height without skill does not help much, but everyone in the NBA is skilled, so height becomes the tiebreaker in many circumstances. For example, even if you believe that Stephen Curry is as skilled as Giannis Antetokounmpo (and I don't), Giannis is the better and more valuable player because he is nearly a foot taller.
I expected a more competitive series. It will be interesting to see how hard Brooklyn fights to avoid being swept tonight.
There is plenty of blame to go around, which I will examine in more depth after the series is over. Durant could do some things differently, but he is not being helped much by Nash's coaching. Also, Boston's defense is very well-designed to exploit Brooklyn's roster deficiencies: Brooklyn's best scoring lineup is weak defensively, and Brooklyn's best defensive lineup has offensive limitations. Again, better coaching could minimize some of these problems, but it baffled me that anyone looked at this Brooklyn team as being a serious threat to win this series.
Glancing forward for just a moment, I am also baffled that Milwaukee punted away home court advantage in the second round in order to either avoid Brooklyn or face Chicago (depending how one views what Milwaukee did in the last game of the regular season). If Boston-Milwaukee is the second round matchup and if that series goes seven games the Bucks may regret that choice, but I would call it karma for messing with the basketball gods.
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