20 Second Timeout

Warriors Take 2-0 Lead as Mavericks Squander Golden Opportunity

The Golden State Warriors overcame a 19 point deficit to post a 126-117 win over the Dallas Mavericks and take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Casual fans may associate the Warriors with three point shooting, but the Warriors' offensive attack has always had more balance than many people realize; the Warriors dominated the Mavericks in the paint in game one, and the Warriors won the paint battle even more convincingly in game two, outscoring the Mavericks 62-30 in the paint on blistering 31-48 (.646) shooting. TNT's Kenny Smith often talks about the importance of getting "two feet in the paint," and he points out that this can be done not only by posting up but also by driving. The Warriors attack the paint first (unless they have a wide open perimeter shot), and then they seek out the best shot after forcing the defense to deal with that paint attack. The Warriors have a lineup full of guards and forwards who can both initiate a play and finish a play, and this is vividly illustrated by the fact that in this game there were five different Warriors who tied for the team lead with five assists: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins.

Curry scored a game-high 32 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, including 6-10 from three point range. He also had eight rebounds. Poole added 23 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, including 2-4 from three point range. Thompson had an efficient 15 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, though he made just 1-4 from beyond the arc. The story of the game, though, was Kevon Looney, who bludgeoned the Mavericks with 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Looney shot 10-14 from the field, and he was a major reason that the Warriors again outshot the Mavericks from the field (.561 to .474) and dominated them on the boards (42-30).

Luka Doncic had another exceptional game: 42 points, eight assists, five rebounds, two turnovers, 12-23 field goal shooting in 38 minutes. He needs more help at both ends of the court. Jalen Brunson had a great game overall (31 points, seven rebounds, five assists, 11-19 field goal shooting), but he only had 11 points on 4-9 shooting in the second half as the Warriors took over. Reggie Bullock added 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting, but he only had eight second half points. Six of the other seven Mavericks who played scored six points or less.

The Mavericks led 20-8 less than six minutes after the game began. When Doncic is rolling and the three point shots are falling the Mavericks look tremendous. However, teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting are subject to the reality that this is a high variance way to play. The Mavericks shot 15-27 (.556) from three point range in the first half, and they led 72-58 at halftime--and then they shot 6-18 (.333) from three point range in the second half as the Warriors outscored them 68-45. Excessive reliance on three point shooting is similar to excessive reliance on the "Run and Shoot" offense in football; in either sport, you will lose--no matter how big of an early lead you build--if you cannot control tempo, if you cannot make high percentage plays when the big plays are not there, and if you cannot provide enough defensive resistance.

As Dallas Coach Jason Kidd put it after the game, "When you go 2-13 (on third quarter three pointers) and you rely on the three, you can die by the three. And we died in the third quarter by shooting that many threes and coming up with only two." He added, "We play defense when we play offense, and we play no defense when we can't score. That's something that we have to get better at this time of year."

Even after losing the third quarter 25-13, the Mavericks did not trail until 18 seconds after the fourth quarter began, when Otto Porter Jr. hit a three pointer to put the Warriors up, 86-85. After never leading for most of the game, the Warriors never trailed again. On the one hand, it is evident that the Mavericks blew a golden opportunity (pardon the pun) to take homecourt advantage; on the other hand, a team that lives by the three pointer with no backup plan is, as Coach Kidd noted, going to die if those three pointers stop falling (and they almost always stop falling eventually). The Warriors are not a team that is going to sit by idly if their opponent hits a rough patch offensively.

The Mavericks trailed 1-0 in the first round before beating the Utah Jazz in six games, and then they trailed 2-0 in the second round before knocking out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in seven games, so they have proven that they can come from behind to win a playoff series. That being said, prior to the 2022 playoffs the teams that won the first two games of a playoff series won the series 92.4% of the time, and that number rises slightly to 92.8% for teams that won the first two games at home. The cliche that teams that win the first two games "just took care of business" is not correct; teams that win the first two games are highly likely to advance to the next round. The onus is on the road team to get a split. Of course, the Mavericks will not and should not give up, but they must clean up their performance in the paint at both ends of the court: they need to get "two feet in the paint" more often on offense, and they need to provide much more resistance to the Warriors' paint touches. Game three is their last, best opportunity to make a stand: teams that fall behind 3-0 in the NBA playoffs have lost the series 100% of the time.

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Klay Thompson, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

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