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Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Davis Dominates Paint as Lakers Seize Homecourt Advantage With 117-112 Win at Golden State

Anthony Davis scored 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting, grabbed 23 rebounds, passed for five assists, and blocked four shots to lead the L.A. Lakers to a 117-112 game one win at Golden State. Davis joined Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Shaquille O'Neal as the only Lakers players to have at least 30 points, at least 20 rebounds, and at least five assists in the same playoff game. The Lakers outscored the Warriors in the paint 54-28, outrebounded the Warriors 53-49, and held the Warriors to .406 field goal shooting (43-106), including .415 (22-53) from inside the arc. 

The Warriors made 21 three pointers and shot an excellent .396 from beyond the arc while the Lakers shot 6-25 (.240) from three point range--but the Lakers won by controlling the paint, mainly because of Davis but also with help from LeBron James, who had 11 rebounds and three blocked shots. The Lakers would have won more comfortably if James had not shot 1-8 from three point range and instead focused on attacking the paint. James scored 22 points on 9-24 field goal shooting, and when he stayed inside the three point arc he made half of his shots. 

Dennis Schroder scored 19 points, shooting 5-10 from the field and 9-10 from the free throw line.

Stephen Curry did not duplicate the sparking productivity and efficiency he displayed while scoring 50 points in Golden State's game seven win at Sacramento; he finished with 27 points on 10-24 field goal shooting, and his fellow Splash Brother had similar numbers: 25 points on 9-25 field goal shooting. Jordan Poole contributed 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, but he fired up a wild shot from way beyond the arc with 9.7 seconds remaining and the Warriors only down by three points; he had plenty of time to get a better shot for himself or make one more pass, instead of letting the outcome of the game hinge on one low percentage shot: everyone goes crazy about logo shots when they go in, but they are low percentage shots, and but most of the time you can spell "logo shot" more simply: l-o-s-s. Kevon Looney had 10 points, 23 rebounds, and five assists, but no other Warrior had more than six rebounds.

I have repeatedly written about the importance of game one in general, and it is obviously significant to win a game one on the road, but let's not forget that the Warriors trailed 2-0 in the first round before eliminating the Kings, and they trailed 2-1 to the Boston Celtics in last year's NBA Finals before winning that series in six games. Statistically, most teams that lose game one or that fall behind 2-1 or 3-2 will lose, but the Warriors have proven capable of overcoming those odds.

Today will be a good day to skip watching or listening to the basketball talking heads, because one win by this particular Lakers team is likely to prompt collective insanity from the chattering class. When Anthony Davis dominates the paint at both ends of the court, it is difficult to beat the L.A. Lakers, a simple basketball truth that explains the ups and downs of the Lakers' 2022-23 season--but one can be certain that other game recaps are going to reference some combination of "lasers," how brilliant it was to trade future Hall of Famer Russell Westrbrook for three role players, and how important outside shooting is in the modern game because of the "gravity" it provides, which is just one aspect of the secret wisdom that only "stat gurus" have as a result of their special understanding of "advanced basketball statistics." 

It is true that D'Angelo Russell played well in game one, scoring 19 points on 9-19 field goal shooting while passing for six assists. He shot 1-5 from three point range. This is the third time in seven playoff games this season that he scored at least 19 points, and the third time that he shot at least .450 from the field. He is making a solid contribution, but he did not singlehandedly turn the Lakers' season around (nor did getting rid of Westbrook amount to some form of addition by subtraction). Jarred Vanderbilt played good defense, grabbed six rebounds, and scored eight points on 2-7 field goal shooting. Malik Beasley, the third player acquired in the Westbrook trade, did not play and he has now fallen completely out of the rotation.

Anthony Davis missed 24 of the Lakers' first 51 games. He has missed just two games since that time, and he has played in all seven playoff games. The Lakers' midseason acquisition of a healthy Anthony Davis is, by far, their most significant "trade." The second most important acquisition for the Lakers is the return, to some extent at least, of the version of LeBron James that plays in the paint; as noted above, he is still jacking up way too many three pointers, but he is rebounding, he is playing defense on most possessions, and he is driving to the hoop sometimes. It is the play of the two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team that can open up opportunities for the rest of the roster, not the other way around. How dangerous would this Lakers team be if they had been willing and able to fully utilize Westbrook's skills?

It will be interesting listening to (or avoiding) all of the talk by the "experts" in the next few days, and then it will be very interesting to watch the rest of this series.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:15 AM

13 comments

Monday, May 01, 2023

Golden State Versus L.A. Lakers Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#6 Golden State (44-38) vs. #7 L.A. Lakers (43-39)

Season series: L.A. Lakers, 3-1

L.A. can win if…Anthony Davis and LeBron James consistently make their presence felt in the paint at both ends of the court. Davis is capable of being an elite rebounder and shotblocker. Davis averaged 13.7 rpg and 4.3 bpg in the Lakers' 4-2 first round series victory against the Memphis Grizzlies after averaging 12.5 rpg and 2.0 bpg in the regular season--and he played in all six playoff games after missing 26 out of 82 regular season games. James averaged 11.2 rpg and 1.3 bpg in the first round after averaging 8.3 rpg and .6 bpg in the regular season--and he played in all six playoff games after missing 27 regular season games.

When Davis and James attack the paint on offense they create easy shots for themselves, they force double teams that create open shot opportunities for their teammates, and they draw fouls that get the opposing team in the bonus, creating free throw opportunities for all of the Lakers. 

For the first part of this season, James focused on breaking Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's regular season scoring record, which is a tremendous accomplishment. After James reached that milestone, he seemed more focused on using his prodigious talents to help his team win, and the Lakers won six of their final seven regular season games.

Austin Reaves has emerged as the Lakers' third best player. He averaged 16.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the first round. D'Angelo Russell spent most of the first round missing shots, but a big performance in game six lifted his series numbers to 16.7 ppg, 5.8 apg, and 3.7 rpg; this is the first time in his career that Russell played on a team that won a playoff series. Rui Hachimura (14.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, team-best .569 FG%) had a very solid first round series.

Golden State will win because…the Warriors' defense will make things difficult for the Lakers' sporadically effective offense, and Stephen Curry will continue to add to his impressive legacy. Curry is unlikely to match his iconic game seven masterpiece versus the Sacramento Kings, but it would not be surprising if he averages 30-plus ppg versus the Lakers while also contributing 5-plus apg and 5-plus rpg. He has averaged at least 30 ppg in eight of his 27 career playoff series, including four times in his last seven playoff series. Curry averaged 33.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, and 4.9 rpg versus Sacramento; that is the fourth highest scoring series of his career, and his highest scoring series since 2019.

The Warriors' defense was inconsistent during the regular season, but the Warriors shut down the high-powered Kings offense in game seven, holding Sacramento to 100 points on .375 field goal shooting. Kevon Looney grabbed 21 rebounds, and he leads all 2023 playoff rebounders with 15.1 rpg. Looney is listed at 6-9, but he plays like an old school big man and not like a new school undersized "big" who drifts to the perimeter.

Other things to consider: The mainstream media narrative is that the Lakers transformed their team by trading future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook for role players D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley. Read that sentence out loud to emphasize how foolish it sounds, and how foolish it is.

To quantify the foolishness, here are the first round numbers for the "tremendous trio": Russell averaged 16.7 ppg on .435 field goal shooting, Vanderbilt averaged 7.2 ppg on .548 field goal shooting, and Beasley averaged 4.2 ppg on .292 field goal shooting. Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook averaged 23.6 ppg on .410 field goal shooting while also contributing 7.6 rpg and 7.4 apg for the shorthanded L.A. Clippers during their five game first round loss to the Phoenix Suns; those numbers, which are in line with Westbrook's career playoff averages, may never be matched in any playoff series by any of the players acquired in exchange for Westbrook. 

As noted above, Davis missed 26 regular season games, and James missed 27 regular season games. Davis missed 24 of the Lakers' first 51 games and just two of the Lakers' final 31 regular season games.

The best midseason trade that the Lakers made was the one in which they traded the player known as "Street Clothes" to acquire Anthony Davis!

The Warriors went 33-8 at home and 11-30 on the road during the regular season. Their chemistry seemed tenuous at best after Draymond Green slugged teammate Jordan Poole in the face during a preseason practice. They kept talking about championship DNA and putting everything together when it mattered, but their desultory play suggested that they did not believe what they said, so it was no surprise when they fell down 2-0 versus the Kings--and it was no surprise when Green stomped on Domantas Sabonis' chest during game two, earning an ejection and a one game suspension.

What is surprising is how quickly the Warriors turned things around. They won the next three games to seemingly take command of the series before being embarrassed at home in game six, setting the stage for Curry's epic game seven performance.

Who are these Warriors? It seems unlikely that they can reach the dominant level of their repeat championship teams from 2017-2018, but it seems probable that they can eliminate a Lakers team that was even more inconsistent than they were during the 2023 regular season. The Warriors beat a quality playoff opponent, while the Lakers defeated an injury-riddled Memphis team.

I would not be shocked if the Lakers win their first two home games after falling behind 2-0, but the Warriors will win this series in six games.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:18 PM

22 comments

Curry Authors Masterful 50 Point Performance, Leads Warriors to Game Seven Victory in Sacramento

Stephen Curry scored 50 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and dished for six assists as the defending champion Golden State Warriors bounced back from a disastrous game six loss at home to win game seven at Sacramento 120-100 and advance to a second round playoff showdown with the L.A. Lakers, who dispatched the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. Curry shot 20-38 from the field (including 7-18 from three point range) while setting the all-time NBA record for most points in a seventh game, surpassing the 48 points Kevin Durant scored two years ago in a loss to Milwaukee. Sam Jones scored 47 points in a game seven win versus Cincinnati in 1963, a mark tied by Dominique Wilkins in a game seven loss to Boston in 1988. 

No other Warrior scored more than 17 points, and Warriors not named Curry shot 23-62 (.371) from the field. While Andrew Wiggins (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting), Klay Thompson (16 points on 4-19 field goal shooting) and most of the Warriors struggled to make shots, the biggest factor in the win other than Curry's greatness was Kevon Looney's ferocious rebounding. Looney grabbed a game-high 21 rebounds, including 11 offensive rebounds. This was his third 20-plus rebound game in the series, a feat accomplished by only two other players in franchise history: Wilt Chamberlain and Nate Thurmond.

The Kings led 58-56 at halftime, but the tide turned in the third quarter as the Warriors outscored the Kings 35-23 while winning the rebounding battle 22-9. Curry scored 14 points and Looney corralled 10 rebounds during those game-changing 12 minutes. During one sequence midway through the third quarter, Jordan Poole missed a three pointer, Gary Payton II controlled the offensive rebound, Andrew Wiggins missed a three pointer, Looney snared the offensive rebound, Wiggins missed a layup, and Looney snatched the offensive rebound and scored. The Warriors looked like a big brother taking the little brother to school in a backyard game. The Kings' Domantas Sabonis, who led the NBA in rebounding this season, finished with eight rebounds--the same number as Curry, who is a 6-3 point guard.

The final rebounding margin was 55-49 in the Warriors' favor, but when the outcome was in doubt the Warriors dominated the glass--and even though the Warriors other than Curry shot poorly, they held the Kings to 36-96 field goal shooting (.375). Sabonis led the Kings with 22 points, while De'Aaron Fox shot 5-19 from the field and only scored 16 points. Malik Monk, who excelled during the Kings' wins, had 14 points on 4-14 field goal shooting. 

After the game, Curry acknowledged the importance of defense not just in this game but in general during the Warriors' championship seasons: "The offense is flashy, especially the way we play our high octane offense, but our calling card has usually been our defense." It is true that the Warriors would not win games like this without playing great defense, nor would they have won four titles in the past eight years (2015, 2017, 2018, 2022) without playing great defense, but Curry's game seven performance was stunning. My basketball Pantheon only includes one player under 6-5: Jerry West, who was as dominant defensively as he was offensively, which is rare in general and almost unheard of for a player his size. I have not updated or expanded my Pantheon since I created it, and for many years I have resisted the notion that Curry is a Pantheon-level player. I never base my overall player evaluations on one game, and that is not what I am doing now; this is more a matter of one game prodding me to reevaluate the totality of Curry's work, and consider the possibility that perhaps I have underrated him. I would not take anyone out of the Pantheon to add him, but maybe the Pantheon should be expanded to include him (and a very select group of players from the past 15 years or so). I just watched a brief video about the history of "posterizing" dunks, and Julius Erving--whose aerial feats inspired the very notion of portraying dunks on posters for young fans to admire and emulate--said that when a great new dunker emerges that new phenom does not kick out his predecessors: the great new dunker joins the club. For dunkers, that club includes Wilt Chamberlain, Gus Johnson, Connie Hawkins, Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, Dominique Wilkins, Kobe Bryant, and Vince Carter. 

So, I am not kicking anyone out of the Pantheon--and I am not officially changing anything without putting some more thought into this--but I am saying that I think that I have underrated Curry, based on his size, based on him taking a back seat to Kevin Durant during their back to back title runs together, and based on him not being an elite defensive player; the reality is that Curry is not only an exceptional shooter, but he finishes very well in the paint, he is an above average rebounder for his position, and he is an excellent passer. More than that, he can carry his team to a game seven road playoff win. Game seven road win used to be almost unheard of in the NBA, and they are still uncommon. The Warriors were a lousy road team during the regular season (11-30), but they won two road games in this series, and Curry was the leading scorer in both of those road wins. 

Again, this is not about one game, or about a small sample size of work devoid of any championships (that is why we are not having this discussion about Jimmy Butler, a very good player who recently had a single game playoff performance comparable to Curry's game seven). Curry has a large body of work in the regular season and in the playoffs, and even though my initial temptation is to say that the Warriors would have lost yesterday without Looney I must also concede that they would have lost without Curry; Curry's scoring, rebounding, and passing were essential in a game during which the other Warriors struggled to score. 

Curry is not better than Durant. We saw that clearly when they were on the same team--but perhaps Curry, Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo all deserve to be viewed as Pantheon level players based on their consistent excellence. 

Instead of focusing on who Curry isn't (Jordan, Bryant, James), I will try to focus more on who he is, and what he does. I have a tendency to react to hype by going in the opposite direction, and the excessive focus on Curry's "gravity"  influenced me to point out the counterarguments (namely, that there are other players who had greater "gravity" even though that term was not used to describe their play). Stephen Curry does not have more "gravity" than Michael Jordan did, but Curry is an incredible basketball player who should be appreciated in his own right.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:28 PM

23 comments

Saturday, June 11, 2022

Curry Shines as Warriors Tie Series, Regain Homecourt Advantage

Stephen Curry authored perhaps the best NBA Finals game of his storied career to lead the Golden State Warriors to a 107-97 win over the Boston Celtics. The Warriors not only tied the series at 2-2, but they also reclaimed the homecourt advantage that they lost after dropping game one. Curry scored 43 points on 14-26 field goal shooting while also grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing for four assists. He was one of only three Warriors with a double digit plus/minus number (+11). Curry was consistent throughout the game, scoring 12 first quarter points, seven second quarter points, 14 third quarter points, and 10 fourth quarter points. Curry's scoring outburst is unexpected not because he is incapable of scoring efficiently at a prolific rate, but simply because it is unusual for him to score efficiently at a prolific rate in the NBA Finals, particularly in game four or later. 

While Curry is without question this game's headliner and dominant performer, he received significant help from Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney. Wiggins scored 17 points while grabbing a career-high 16 rebounds. During this series, Wiggins has often been one of the few Warriors capable of matching up athletically and physically with the Celtics, and his +20 plus/minus number in game four indicates that the Warriors would have struggled to win this game without him. Looney only scored six points, but he had 11 rebounds in 28 minutes, and he led both teams with a +21 plus/minus number. Looney plays in the paint like a traditional big man, and the Warriors figured out that they do not have much chance of winning this series by going small with Draymond Green at center; in game four, Green was again outmatched physically, finishing with two points on 1-7 field goal shooting, though he did offset his anemic scoring to some extent with a very good floor game (nine rebounds, eight assists, four steals). Green's plus/minus number of +0 in 33 minutes reflects the reality that the Warriors did most of their damage in the 15 minutes that he did not ply.

Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole made solid contributions. Thompson scored 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting, while Poole added 14 points on 6-13 field goal shooting. 

The Warriors outrebounded the Celtics 55-42, and they outshot the Celtics from the field, .440 to .400. Most significantly and unexpectedly, the Warriors outscored the Celtics in the paint 38-32 after losing that category 52-26 in game three. The Warriors set an NBA record by winning at least one road game for the 27th straight playoff series.

Jayson Tatum had solid boxscore totals (23 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, +1 plus/minus number), but he squandered too many possessions, shooting just 8-23 from the field while committing six turnovers; Tatum's missed layups and careless ballhandling proved to be very costly for the Celtics. Throughout this series, Tatum has been inefficient with his scoring opportunities at the rim, seeming at times to be more focused on trying to draw a foul than on converting the shot regardless of whether or not the referee will blow their whistles.

Jaylen Brown did his part, scoring 21 points on 9-19 field goal shooting and committing just two turnovers. Robert Williams III scored seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting, grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds, and blocked two shots in 31 minutes. He was the only Celtic other than Tatum with a positive plus/minus number (+6), but he did not get enough help inside from Al Horford (eight points, six rebounds, four assists) and Grant Williams (three points, one rebound in just 13 minutes).

Marcus Smart (18 points on 7-18 field goal shooting) and Derrick White (16 points on 4-12 field goal shooting) missed far too many shots, and they had the worst plus/minus numbers in this game (-17 and -19 respectively). 

Golden State's 10 point margin of victory obscures the fact that Boston controlled the action for most of the game. Boston jumped out to an 11-4 first quarter lead, and the Celtics were up 54-49 at halftime. The Celtics led for most of the third quarter--withstanding the Warriors' typical surge during that stanza--but the Warriors entered the fourth quarter with a slim 79-78 edge after Curry drained a three pointer to close out the third quarter scoring.

The Celtics have been the better fourth quarter team throughout this series, and they were up 94-90 after Smart's three pointer with 5:18 remaining, but their offense fell apart just short of the finish line as the Warriors went on a 10-0 run. During that key stretch, the Celtics--who enjoy advantages in size and athleticism--did not attempt a single shot from closer than 13 feet, and they missed five straight three pointers. Holding the Warriors to 107 points should be good enough to win, but the Celtics did not convert enough of their defensive stops into high percentage scoring opportunities. Curry's 43 point performance will deservedly receive headlines, but the Celtics would enjoy a 3-1 series lead now despite Curry's heroics if they had scored more efficiently in the paint.

Why should we believe that the Celtics will win this series after losing game four at home? The Warriors are not going to become bigger or more athletic, so their disadvantages in this series cannot be fixed. In contrast, the Celtics are capable of cutting down on their turnovers, improving their clutch time shot selection, and finishing more efficiently in the paint. If the Celtics do those things, they will win game five, and they will win game six as well.

Throughout the playoffs, I have noted that momentum is a myth and I have stated that I am not a commentator who changes his series prediction after every game. I picked the Celtics to win this series in six games and the Celtics are still in position to make that happen; during the 2022 playoffs,  the Celtics have not lost two consecutive games and they are 8-3 on the road.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:46 AM

11 comments

Saturday, May 21, 2022

Warriors Take 2-0 Lead as Mavericks Squander Golden Opportunity

The Golden State Warriors overcame a 19 point deficit to post a 126-117 win over the Dallas Mavericks and take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Casual fans may associate the Warriors with three point shooting, but the Warriors' offensive attack has always had more balance than many people realize; the Warriors dominated the Mavericks in the paint in game one, and the Warriors won the paint battle even more convincingly in game two, outscoring the Mavericks 62-30 in the paint on blistering 31-48 (.646) shooting. TNT's Kenny Smith often talks about the importance of getting "two feet in the paint," and he points out that this can be done not only by posting up but also by driving. The Warriors attack the paint first (unless they have a wide open perimeter shot), and then they seek out the best shot after forcing the defense to deal with that paint attack. The Warriors have a lineup full of guards and forwards who can both initiate a play and finish a play, and this is vividly illustrated by the fact that in this game there were five different Warriors who tied for the team lead with five assists: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins.

Curry scored a game-high 32 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, including 6-10 from three point range. He also had eight rebounds. Poole added 23 points on 7-10 field goal shooting, including 2-4 from three point range. Thompson had an efficient 15 points on 6-10 field goal shooting, though he made just 1-4 from beyond the arc. The story of the game, though, was Kevon Looney, who bludgeoned the Mavericks with 21 points and a game-high 12 rebounds. Looney shot 10-14 from the field, and he was a major reason that the Warriors again outshot the Mavericks from the field (.561 to .474) and dominated them on the boards (42-30).

Luka Doncic had another exceptional game: 42 points, eight assists, five rebounds, two turnovers, 12-23 field goal shooting in 38 minutes. He needs more help at both ends of the court. Jalen Brunson had a great game overall (31 points, seven rebounds, five assists, 11-19 field goal shooting), but he only had 11 points on 4-9 shooting in the second half as the Warriors took over. Reggie Bullock added 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting, but he only had eight second half points. Six of the other seven Mavericks who played scored six points or less.

The Mavericks led 20-8 less than six minutes after the game began. When Doncic is rolling and the three point shots are falling the Mavericks look tremendous. However, teams that rely too heavily on three point shooting are subject to the reality that this is a high variance way to play. The Mavericks shot 15-27 (.556) from three point range in the first half, and they led 72-58 at halftime--and then they shot 6-18 (.333) from three point range in the second half as the Warriors outscored them 68-45. Excessive reliance on three point shooting is similar to excessive reliance on the "Run and Shoot" offense in football; in either sport, you will lose--no matter how big of an early lead you build--if you cannot control tempo, if you cannot make high percentage plays when the big plays are not there, and if you cannot provide enough defensive resistance.

As Dallas Coach Jason Kidd put it after the game, "When you go 2-13 (on third quarter three pointers) and you rely on the three, you can die by the three. And we died in the third quarter by shooting that many threes and coming up with only two." He added, "We play defense when we play offense, and we play no defense when we can't score. That's something that we have to get better at this time of year."

Even after losing the third quarter 25-13, the Mavericks did not trail until 18 seconds after the fourth quarter began, when Otto Porter Jr. hit a three pointer to put the Warriors up, 86-85. After never leading for most of the game, the Warriors never trailed again. On the one hand, it is evident that the Mavericks blew a golden opportunity (pardon the pun) to take homecourt advantage; on the other hand, a team that lives by the three pointer with no backup plan is, as Coach Kidd noted, going to die if those three pointers stop falling (and they almost always stop falling eventually). The Warriors are not a team that is going to sit by idly if their opponent hits a rough patch offensively.

The Mavericks trailed 1-0 in the first round before beating the Utah Jazz in six games, and then they trailed 2-0 in the second round before knocking out the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in seven games, so they have proven that they can come from behind to win a playoff series. That being said, prior to the 2022 playoffs the teams that won the first two games of a playoff series won the series 92.4% of the time, and that number rises slightly to 92.8% for teams that won the first two games at home. The cliche that teams that win the first two games "just took care of business" is not correct; teams that win the first two games are highly likely to advance to the next round. The onus is on the road team to get a split. Of course, the Mavericks will not and should not give up, but they must clean up their performance in the paint at both ends of the court: they need to get "two feet in the paint" more often on offense, and they need to provide much more resistance to the Warriors' paint touches. Game three is their last, best opportunity to make a stand: teams that fall behind 3-0 in the NBA playoffs have lost the series 100% of the time.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

1 comments

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Warriors Rout Mavericks in Western Conference Finals Opener

The Golden State Warriors outshot and outrebounded the Dallas Mavericks while smothering Luka Doncic en route to a 112-87 win in game one of the Western Conference Finals. Stephen Curry led the Warriors in both scoring (21 points) and rebounding (12 rebounds). He did not have a great shooting game (7-16 from the field--including 3-9 from three point range--and 4-7 on free throws) but in a game in which both teams went with small lineups he dominated the boards while also contributing four assists. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins scored 19 points each. Wiggins also had the primary responsibility of guarding Doncic. Klay Thompson had a solid, if not spectacular, performance (15 points, five rebounds, four assists). Kevon Looney dominated early in the game--TNT's Stan Van Gundy deemed him "the first quarter MVP"--and Looney finished with 10 points on 5-5 field goal shooting plus five rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots. Although no Warrior had an outstanding game, collectively the Warriors performed very well, shooting .561 from the field and outrebounding the Mavericks 51-35.

Doncic led the Mavericks with 20 points and seven rebounds, but he shot just 6-18 from the field and he committed seven turnovers. Spencer Dinwiddie scored 17 points off of the bench, but Jalen Brunson only had 14 points on 6-16 field goal shooting, and Reggie Bullock was the only other Dallas player who scored in double figures (14 points, 4-12 field goal shooting). The Mavericks rely heavily on three point shooting, but they shot just 11-48 (.229) from beyond the arc while looking nothing like the team that dominated the number one seeded Phoenix Suns in game seven at Phoenix last Sunday.

As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter told the story. The Warriors outscored the Mavericks 28-18 in the first quarter, shooting .632 from the field while holding the Mavericks to .269 field goal shooting. The Mavericks attempted a stunning 19 three point field goals in the first 12 minutes, while making just three. The Warriors shot 10-11 from two point range, and they outrebounded the Mavericks 16-9. Those early trends--poor three point shooting by the Mavericks, excellent two point shooting by the Warriors, rebounding dominance by the Warriors--continued throughout the game.

The Warriors led 54-45 at halftime, and then they blew the game open with a 10-2 run to start the third quarter. The Mavericks never mounted a serious threat the rest of the way.

The Mavericks lost the first two games in Phoenix before taking four of the next five contests to knock out the Suns, so it is obviously too soon to count out the Mavericks--but the Mavericks must perform a lot better at both ends of the court. They will have to play harder and smarter on defense, starting with providing much more resistance in the paint; the Warriors not only outscored the Mavericks 44-32 in the paint but the Warriors shot 22-32 (.688) on their field goal attempts in the paint.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:12 AM

15 comments

Saturday, May 14, 2022

Warriors Outrebound, Outshoot, and Outlast Grizzlies to Advance to the Western Conference Finals

Small ball and three point shooting may grab the headlines, but when push comes to shove--literally--size matters in the NBA. After being pushed around, outrebounded, and embarrassed by the Memphis Grizzlies in game five the Golden State Warriors responded by going big and outrebounding the Grizzlies 70-44 en route to a 110-96 victory. Acting head coach Mike Brown--who is taking Steve Kerr's place while Kerr is in COVID-19 health and safety protocols--inserted Kevon Looney in the starting lineup. Looney grabbed a game-high 22 rebounds--including 11 in the first quarter, matching Memphis' total--to nullify Memphis' advantage in size/physicality. Draymond Green had 15 rebounds, and Andrew Wiggins added 11 rebounds. Steven Adams led Memphis with 10 rebounds and he had the best plus/minus number among the team's starters (-6) but he was outnumbered in the paint.

The Warriors were sloppy with the ball (17 turnovers) and they shot just .394 from the field, but their huge rebounding advantage coupled with the Grizzlies' poor shooting (.354) proved to be a winning formula. Klay Thompson led the Warriors with 30 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, but Stephen Curry shot just 10-27 from the field to accumulate 29 points. Jordan Poole, the newest "Splash Brother," drizzled his way to 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting. Dillon Brooks posted Curry-like numbers (30 points, 11-28 field goal shooting), while Desmond Bane nearly matched Thompson's output (25 points, 9-16 field goal shooting), but the Warriors' extra possessions proved to be too much to overcome.

The big "What if?" for this series is the knee injury that Ja Morant suffered in game three. Morant scored 47 points in Memphis' game two win and he averaged 38.3 ppg during the series. The Grizzlies ranked second in the NBA in scoring this season (115.6 ppg), but in the final three games of this series without Morant the Grizzlies failed to break the 100 point barrier twice. Memphis' game five blowout win was an aberration--not from an effort standpoint, but from a shooting and scoring standpoint--and the harsh reality is that without Morant the Grizzlies just could not generate enough offense to win game six even after holding the Warriors to sub-.400 field goal shooting.

Despite being shorthanded and despite losing the battle on the boards, the Grizzlies kept the game close until the fourth quarter, when Curry finally got hot (4-7 field goal shooting, 11 points) and the Warriors outscored the Grizzlies 32-19. 

The Warriors are back in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2019, when they lost to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals after Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both suffered serious injuries. They will get a few days off before facing the game seven winner of the Phoenix-Dallas series.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM

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