Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#2 Boston (57-25) vs. #3 Philadelphia (54-28)
Season series: Boston, 3-1
Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid is healthy, efficient, and productive, James Harden does not go on a "concert tour," and the 76ers' defense contains Boston's deadly duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without conceding too many wide open three pointers.
A knee injury caused Embiid to miss game four of the 76ers' first round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, and it is unclear not only when Embiid will return but how much the balky knee will limit him. This season, Embiid averaged a career-high 33.1 ppg while winning his second consecutive scoring title, but he was conspicuously less productive in his three playoff games versus the Nets (20.0 ppg, which is his playoff career-low). The Nets trapped Embiid and dared other 76ers to beat them, but the Celtics have the necessary personnel to play Embiid one on one for extended stretches. Al Horford plays well versus Embiid, and the Celtics can also use Robert Williams either as the primary matchup or as a help defender protecting the hoop. Embiid has never made it past the second round; this is the time of year when he is injured, ineffective, or both, and there is no reason to believe that he is poised to reverse that pattern.
Harden may be the worst playoff choker among perennial All-Stars in pro basketball history. He averaged 17.3 ppg while shooting .343 from the field versus the Nets in the first round even though the Nets swarmed Embiid, which created opportunities that Harden should have exploited. Harden has shot better than .450 from the field once in his past 10 playoff games, and just three times in 16 playoff games as a 76er. His performances when his team faces elimination are horrific, and he lived up--or down--to that standard in last year's game seven loss to the Miami Heat, disappearing in the second half and finishing with 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting with four turnovers. When Harden plays in a big playoff game, it is far from certain that his made field goals will outnumber his turnovers. In Harden's two second round playoff series since he fled Houston and began playing in the Eastern Conference, he has averaged 15.2 ppg on .374 field goal shooting. This brief recitation of Harden's playoff resume is made more relevant by the fact that 76ers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey once insisted that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. Morey and his friends in the media often assert that his use of "advanced basketball statistics" gives him a great advantage when building a team, but the reality is that Morey had 13 years to build a championship team in Houston--far longer than most general managers are granted--and he failed. This is Morey's third season running the show in Philadelphia.
Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers in scoring during the first round (21.8 ppg) with shooting splits that Harden can only dream of achieving (.471/.500/.800). He had as many turnovers in the four game series (four) as Harden has in a typical game.
Tobias Harris had a very good series against Brooklyn (20.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg), but he faces a bigger challenge this series because he will have to deal with Tatum at both ends of the court.
Boston will win because…the Celtics are a proven championship-quality team. They made it to the NBA Finals last season, the fourth time in the past six years that they advanced at least as far as the Eastern Conference Finals.
Championships are won by big, versatile players who attack the paint on offense and defend the paint on defense. The Celtics have a whole squad of players like that, led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum led the Celtics in scoring (27.2 ppg), rebounding (10.0 rpg), and assists (5.3 apg) during their 4-2 first round series win versus the Atlanta Hawks. Brown contributed 26.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.0 apg in the first round. Derrick White (17.3 ppg), Marcus Smart (16.7 ppg) and 2023 Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon (13.3 ppg) also played well in the first round.
The Celtics are a high volume three point shooting team, but that is OK because they shoot a high percentage and because they back up their perimeter game with outstanding defense and rebounding. During the regular season, they ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in rebounding.
The all-around basketball that the Celtics play contrasts dramatically with the way that many teams play, including their first round opponent. The Hawks are led by Trae Young, who often shoots three pointers from well beyond the arc--logo shots, as they are now called. Damian Lillard also loves taking logo shots. Logo shots look spectacular when they go in, but Young shot 1-13 from the field (including 0-4 from three point range) in the second half of game six versus Boston as the Hawks went down in flames. Undersized guards who play no defense and jack up a lot of three pointers may get big contracts but they will not lead teams to championships. Near the end of game six, it was comical to watch an inbounds play as Young repeatedly threw the ball off of Smart because Young is so short that he cannot see over Smart; the Hawks eventually had mercy on Young and relieved him of inbounding duties.
Other things to consider: The Celtics have only had one losing season since winning the 2008 NBA title. While the 76ers have unsuccessfully tried to tank to the top, the Celtics created and sustained a winning culture. Contrary to what many "stat gurus" insist, coaching matters, culture matters, and controlling the paint matters.
The Celtics are a better organization from the top down than the 76ers, and the Celtics will win this series in six games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:03 PM
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