Miami Versus New York Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#8 Miami (44-38) vs. #5 New York (47-35)
Season series: New York, 3-1
New York can win if…Jalen Brunson continues to score 24-plus ppg while keeping his teammates involved in the offense, and if the Knicks dominate the paint the way that they dominated the paint while defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1 in the first round.
The next time Dallas owner Mark Cuban makes a presentation at the Sloan Analytics Conference, he should explain in detail which "advanced basketball statistics" and which "stat gurus" influenced his decisions to not re-sign Jalen Brunson and then trade away his team's depth and wing defense to acquire Kyrie Irving--and then we will all know which "advanced basketball statistics" not to trust, and which "stat gurus" should seek employment in other fields. Did Cuban use the same metrics to make those decisions that he used when he prematurely broke up his 2011 championship team, or does he have updated metrics that do not work to replace his malfunctioning 2011 analytics?
In his first season with the Knicks, Brunson set career highs in scoring (24.0 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg). Brunson averaged 24.0 ppg and 4.8 apg as the Knicks stunned the Cavaliers, a team that had championship aspirations after acquiring Donovan Mitchell prior to this season. R.J. Barrett (17.4 ppg) was the Knicks' second leading scorer in the first round as Julius Randle (14.4 ppg) was hobbled by an ankle injury that forced him to sit out most of the game five clincher. Josh Hart made an impact versus Cleveland not only with his scoring (11.6 ppg) but also with his rebounding (7.8 rpg, second on the team) and hustle plays.
The Knicks pushed the Cavaliers around and dominated them in the paint, but the Heat are a tougher and more playoff-tested squad that will not be so easily bullied.
Miami will win because…of "Playoff Jimmy Butler," the Heat's adequate defense and rebounding, and the questionable injury status of Randle. That may sound like less than a ringing endorsement, but the reality is that during the regular season the Heat ranked 27th in rebounding and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Other than a 121-99 game three win versus Milwaukee, the Heat did not exactly shut down the Bucks--but they found a way to get enough defensive stops, and if they can do that against the Bucks then it is reasonable to suggest that they can get enough defensive stops against the Knicks.
It is surprising that the Heat defeated the Bucks 4-1 in the first round, even with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing two games and most of a third game; the Heat still won the last two games of the series with Antetokounmpo playing and putting up big numbers. Thus, it would appear that--even with their depth sapped due to injuries suffered by Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo--the Heat may be one of the rare teams that actually can flip a switch when the playoffs start. I have repeatedly stated that the proverbial "team no one wants to face" usually is eliminated from the playoffs swiftly, but the Heat--who had the best record in the East last season, and who reached the 2020 NBA Finals--may be the exception to that rule.
Butler's first round scoring and shooting numbers--37.6 ppg, .597 FG%--look like typographical errors or plagiarized text from Wilt Chamberlain's biography. Butler has never averaged 24 ppg during a season--he averaged 22.9 ppg this season--but he has averaged at least 24 ppg in six of his 19 career playoff series. It is unlikely that Butler will average 37.6 ppg versus the Knicks, but there is a good chance that he will average more than 24 ppg (four of his six highest scoring playoff series happened in 2022 or 2023).
Coach Erik Spoelstra's impact should not be underestimated. He has proven himself to be not only an adept tactician but also someone who is able to connect with various kinds of personalities. His teams are consistently smart, tough, and aggressive.
Other things to consider: I did not pick either of these teams to win in the first round, so this series has placed me in unexpected territory. Neither team impressed me very much during the regular season, so I am still trying to figure out if these teams are better than I expected, if their opponents are worse than I thought, or some combination of both.
Perhaps the Knicks are favorites on paper due to having homecourt advantage plus a heady leader who played a major role in a Conference Finals run last season (Brunson with Dallas). However, Butler has the best playoff resume of anyone in this series, and he had to go through Antetokounmpo--who I consider to be the NBA's best all-around player--to reach the second round, while the Knicks beat a Cleveland team that may not be as good as the press clippings that their players apparently took too seriously.
I expect this series to have some interesting twists and turns before Miami wins in six games.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 11:56 PM
2 Comments:
Todd:
I think this will be a very interesting, throwback-like series with both teams trying to muck the game down on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised to see some games ending in a score like 91-88.
I could see the Heat winning this series, as they undoubtedly have the best player in this series with Butler (as you said). However, the Heat as a team shot a blistering 45% from three in the Bucks series, a drastic uptick compared to their regular season average (34.4%, 27th in the league). Their hot streak could definitely continue, but it's also very possible that the Bucks series was an anomaly.
I think the X-factor with Miami is Bam Adebayo. He's gotta be aggressive to help out Butler on offence, and it will be fun to see him match up with Mitchell Robinson in the paint on the boards.
I'll lean with the Knicks in 7.
David,
This series between two squads who showcased a classic rivalry in the 90s should be a highly entertaining to say the least. Piggybacking off of Todd's comment above, I think the Heat's 3pt shooting will regress to their regular season's average. With the Heat cooling down from downtown, I also think this series might be the one where Herro's scoring will be missed.
From my observations of Bam Adebayo in the postseason, I don't trust him enough to step up to supplement the offensive load off Butler. He picks up his dribble way too soon and fails to capitalize on size mismatches in the post (much to the dismay of Shaq and Charles when they do the game highlights of Miami).
For this series, I think it will be more "old-fashioned" in that whoever wins the points-in-the-paint battle and secures more rebounds will win each game, and thus the series. I will also go with Knicks in a classic 7-game series. This one will be must-see TV.
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