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Sunday, December 15, 2024

NBA Cup Semifinals Recaps and NBA Cup Championship Game Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tuesday night's NBA Cup Championship Game after defeating the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets respectively yesterday in the semifinals in Las Vegas. Each player on the the team that wins the NBA Cup will receive $500,000, but the Championship Game itself is neither fish nor fowl from a statistical standpoint--the numbers do not count for the regular season or for the playoffs, which is an odd way for the NBA to treat such a supposedly important event.

The Bucks trailed the Hawks 83-82 heading into the fourth quarter, but rode Giannis Antetokounmpo's all-around greatness to victory as the two-time regular season MVP scored 10 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished for three assists, and had a sensational block of Clint Capela's dunk attempt with the Bucks clinging to a 103-98 lead with 2:35 remaining. Antetokounmpo finished with a team-high 32 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, a team-high nine assists, and a game-high (tied with Capela) four blocked shots. Antetokounmpo joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only two Milwaukee players to have 100 games with at least 30 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least .600 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo made the NBA Cup All-Tournament Team last year, and he is a lock to make it this year as well. Damian Lillard added 25 points on 8-21 field goal shooting while also contributing seven assists, six rebounds, and three steals. Trae Young poured in a game-high 35 points on 9-18 field goal shooting and 14-17 free throw shooting, and he distributed a game-high 10 assists. It is difficult to read the 14-13 Hawks: they are 2-0 against Cleveland, 2-0 against New York, 1-1 against Boston--but 0-2 against Chicago, and 0-2 against the pathetic Washington "Wheeze-hards."

The Rockets led the Thunder for most of the first half, but the Thunder's stout defense wore down the Rockets in the second half as the Thunder outscored the Rockets 70-54 to cruise to a 111-96 win. The Thunder shot 36-80 (.450) from the field while holding the Rockets to 35-96 (.365) field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 8-21 field goal shooting and 14-15 free throw shooting while also snaring eight rebounds and dishing for six assists. Isaiah Hartenstein had a strong game with 21 points and eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and Lu Dort added 19 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Other than Hartenstein, the Thunder lack size, but they are an athletic team that plays with high energy. Amen Thompson led the Rockets with 19 points off of the bench, but no other Rocket scored more than 14 points.

The 20-5 Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference, while the surging 14-11 Bucks have the sixth best record in the Eastern Conference despite starting the season 1-6. The Thunder looked like a championship contender from the start of this season, while the Bucks just now seem to be rounding into form, although their perimeter defense and their depth are still questionable. The Thunder have the statistical profile of a championship team, ranking first in defensive field goal percentage (.424), first in point differential (12.0), and first in points allowed (103.5 ppg). They also lead the league both in forcing turnovers and fewest turnovers committed, and those extra possessions help compensate for their middle of the pack 16th ranking in rebounding. Lack of size (which impacts rebounding, of course) is the main concern for the Thunder. The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games, and have moved up to sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.451), 14th in point differential (1.1), and 13th in points allowed (111.9 ppg). Lillard will always be a defensive liability, but the Bucks protect the paint well, ranking sixth in blocked shots. Rebounding is a concern: the Bucks rank just 22nd, and other than Antetokounmpo (11.5 rpg) and Bobby Portis (7.7 rpg) no Buck is averaging more than 5 rpg. 

The NBA Cup, as TNT's Kenny Smith mentioned, is more like the NCAA Tournament than the NBA playoffs; the best team generally wins the NBA championship, but in the NBA Cup a team can get hot for one game and knock out a superior team. For that reason, Smith picked the Bucks to beat the Thunder, even though he rates the Thunder as the better overall team. The Bucks are the only undefeated team (6-0) in NBA Cup games this season, and I agree with Smith's pick; specifically, I expect Antetokounmpo to dominate: in his only game versus the Thunder last season, he scored a game-high 30 points and snatched a game-high 19 rebounds in just 34 minutes as the Bucks won, 118-93. Khris Middleton, who recently returned to the lineup this season on a minutes restriction, had a triple double (11 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) in that rout, and he performed well in the Bucks' other game versus the Thunder last season (18 points, seven rebounds, six assists), but Antetotokounmpo and Lillard both did not play in that 18 point loss.

It is interesting to note that Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham led the L.A. Lakers to the inaugural NBA Cup title last season before the Lakers fired him and replaced him with J.J. Redick. The amazing thing about Redick--who has coached the Lakers to a tie for 10th-11th (out of 15 teams) in the West so far with a 13-12 record--is that, at least according to him, the Lakers have had the right game plan every single game, only to fall short because the players simply don't adhere to his wise teaching and superior basketball knowledge; the Lakers have not once been outcoached this season--just ask Redick, and he'll be happy to tell you, and there is no doubt that this message resonates well with his players, particularly coming from a coach whose prior experience consisted entirely of coaching AAU kids. There is nothing that NBA players like more than being talked down to by a coach who has never won anything at the NBA level as a player or as a coach. It would be interesting to hear Ham's candid thoughts about the Lakers, and about Redick, but Ham is too busy helping the Bucks improve to waste much time pondering the overhyped and underperforming Lakers.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 AM

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