New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).
In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome.
Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking
third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.
This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.
The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors
posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM
How Significant is the NBA Cup?
The third annual NBA Cup began with eight games on Friday October 31, and will continue until a champion is crowned on Tuesday December 16. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the 2024 NBA Cup, and the L.A. Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup in 2023. Most of this year's NBA Cup games will be played on Friday nights. All NBA Cup games also count in the regular season standings except for the championship game, which paradoxically is not classified as a regular season game or as a playoff game.
In a two year sample size, winning the NBA Cup has not correlated with winning the the NBA title. Milwaukee lost to Indiana in the first round of the 2025 playoffs, and the Lakers lost to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2024 playoffs. The losers of the NBA Cup championship game have fared better in the NBA playoffs than the winners, with Oklahoma City capturing the 2025 NBA title and Indiana reaching the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals a year before losing to Oklahoma City in the 2025 NBA Finals.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver openly dreamed for many years about creating an in-season tournament modeled after the in-season tournaments that already exist in other sports leagues around the world. He believes that such an in-season tournament heightens fan interest and lessens the incentive to tank--and he no doubt also believes that an in-season tournament provides revenue generating opportunities for the league.
There is little doubt that the league is using the NBA Cup to create revenue generating opportunities through sponsorships and through promotion by the league's media partners, but the other supposed advantages of the NBA Cup are difficult to quantify. There is not a direct, obvious way to measure the extent to which fan interest is impacted by the NBA Cup; did fans attend a particular game because it was an NBA Cup game or because they like one of the teams or because that game happened when they had enough time or money to go to a game?
The race to the bottom that happened in both 2023 and 2024--and will almost certainly happen this season as well--belies the notion that the NBA Cup curbs tanking; it made no sense to assume that--even if every team cared a lot about winning the NBA Cup--the existence of an in-season tournament would have an impact on teams happily losing for most of the season.
It will be interesting to see how the NBA Cup is viewed in 10 years. The Lakers raised a banner to commemorate their 2023 NBA Cup title, and the Bucks raised a banner in honor of their 2024 NBA Cup title, but it is difficult to imagine legendary players of the past such as Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant putting much stock in a banner celebrating anything other than an NBA title. How important can the NBA Cup championship game be if the statistics are not counted as either part of the regular season or the playoffs? The NBA Cup championship game is essentially an exhibition game for which the players are richly rewarded, as each member of the winning team receives more than $500,000.
Great players are evaluated based in large part on NBA championships, NBA MVPs, All-NBA selections, and overall individual statistics. Will NBA Cups eventually considered to be an important--or even relevant--part of a great player's resume? That seems doubtful.
Labels: Adam Silver, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder
posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 AM
Bucks Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Championship Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo authored a dominant triple double with game-high totals in points (26), rebounds (19), and assists (10) while leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 97-81 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game. Antetokounmpo shot 10-19 from the field, and he also accumulated three blocked shots plus two steals. Antetokounmpo earned the NBA Cup MVP award, which was based on his play throughout the NBA Cup tournament and not just in the Championship Game. Damian Lillard scored 23 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. chipped in 13 points each. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the Thunder with 21 points, but he shot just 8-24 from the field, including 2-9 from three point range. Jalen Williams scored 18 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein had 16 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and he ripped down a team-high 12 rebounds; he scored 10 first quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting, but he was quiet offensively the rest of the way.
I predicted that Antetokounmpo would dominate and that the Bucks would win. As I have repeatedly said for many years, size matters in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is a tough matchup for any team, but the small-ball Thunder are particularly ill-equipped to challenge him. His paint dominance forced the Thunder to send defensive help, which in turn created wide open three pointers that his teammates drained. Many of the headlines for game stories about this contest will probably focus on the Bucks shooting 17-40 (.425) from three point range, but to summarize Milwaukee's win that way is to miss the larger point (pun intended) that the bigger Bucks physically dominated the Thunder; the Bucks won the rebounding
battle 52-43 and held the Thunder to 29-86 field goal shooting
(.337), including 5-32 (.156) from three point range. However, the NBA Cup Championship Game statistics--both for individual players and for the teams--do not officially count as regular season statistics or as playoff statistics: the only tangible proof that this game happened is that ABC broadcast it, Commissioner Adam Silver handed out the championship and MVP trophies at the end, and each player on the winning team's roster received more than $500,000.
The Thunder entered this game leading the West while boasting a historic 12.1 ppg point differential, plus league-leading averages in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed. Their defense versus the Bucks was not bad--they held the Bucks 16 points below the Bucks' scoring average--but they could not make three pointers and they would not stop taking three pointers. The way that the Thunder sputtered to just 31 second half points on 11-42 field goal shooting (.262) is exhibit A for what is wrong with the modern NBA: the sport is supposed to be basketball, not "jack up as many three pointers as possible." Yes, the Bucks deserve credit for playing excellent defense and exploiting their size advantage at both ends of the court, but in this game the Thunder outscored the Bucks in the paint 34-28. Although it is not realistic to think that the Thunder could or should have attempted a shot in the paint on every possession, their ratio of 32 three point attempts to 39 paint shot attempts was as stubborn as it was suboptimal; in the good old days, NBA teams regularly scored more than 100 points without attempting any three pointers, let alone attempting dozens of three pointers, so the notion that in order to score a lot of points it is necessary to match the other team three point shot for three point shot is foolish. Contrary to what some people will say, the Bucks did not win this game because they made more three pointers than the Thunder, nor did the Bucks win because they attempted more three pointers than the Thunder; the Bucks won this game because their size advantage overwhelmed the Thunder, and one of the consequences of that was that Bucks other than Antetokounmpo had wide open three point shot attempts.
A made three point shot is worth more than a made two point shot, but all missed shots are worth zero points. "Stat gurus" not only fail to understand that basic math, but they also ignore or minimize the reality that attacking the paint puts pressure on the opposing defense, can lead to free throw attempts, and better enables the offensive team to maintain good court balance for getting back on defense. If it were truly as simple as "Threes are worth more than twos" then of course the best strategy would be to attempt nothing but three pointers (which, sadly, is the direction in which the NBA seems to be headed), but correct basketball strategy is multidimensional. Looking at a broader view beyond this game, this is not just about how many three pointers are being attempted but also about when and how three pointers are being attempted. As mentioned above, the Bucks created high percentage, good rhythm three pointers by attacking the paint and then swinging the ball to the open man after the Thunder trapped Antetokounmpo. In contrast, after scoring 16 paint points in the first quarter to enjoy a 28-27 lead, the Thunder did not attack the paint enough. Sure, the Bucks deserve credit for using their size effectively in the paint, but the solution to that is not to settle for three pointers but rather to continue to attack the paint. It is easy for the smaller team to get frustrated and just settle for long jumpers, but that is not championship level basketball; playing small is no excuse for abandoning the paint.
Rivers said at halftime, "We have to win the three point shooting, and that's what we're doing." The Bucks opened the second half with back to back three pointers to establish their largest lead of the game up to that point, 57-50. I would argue that what mattered was not so much that the Bucks won the three point shooting, but rather how they did it: they attacked the paint as the first option, and shot open threes as the second option, which is much different than just jacking up three pointers without first probing the defense.
The Thunder are a much better team than they showed on Tuesday night, but this game showcased the difference between a seven game series and a winner take all format, and it highlighted how dangerous it is to rely on high variance three point shooting without having any backup plan.
Last year, the L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup. The Pacers seemed to get a boost from their strong NBA Cup run, and they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014, but the Lakers lost in the first round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how well this year's NBA Cup Finalists do in the tournament that really matters.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:07 AM
NBA Cup Semifinals Recaps and NBA Cup Championship Game Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tuesday
night's NBA Cup Championship Game after defeating the Atlanta Hawks and
Houston Rockets respectively yesterday in the semifinals in Las Vegas.
Each player on the the team that wins the NBA Cup will receive $500,000,
but the Championship Game itself is neither fish nor fowl from a
statistical standpoint--the numbers do not count for the regular season
or for the playoffs, which is an odd way for the NBA to treat such a
supposedly important event.
The Bucks trailed the Hawks 83-82
heading into the fourth quarter, but rode Giannis Antetokounmpo's
all-around greatness to victory as the two-time regular season MVP
scored 10 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished for three assists, and
had a sensational block of Clint Capela's dunk attempt with the Bucks
clinging to a 103-98 lead with 2:35 remaining. Antetokounmpo finished
with a team-high 32 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, a game-high 14
rebounds, a team-high nine assists, and a game-high (tied with Capela)
four blocked shots. Antetokounmpo joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only
two Milwaukee players to have 100 games with at least 30 points, at
least 10 rebounds, and at least .600 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo
made the NBA Cup All-Tournament Team last year, and he is a lock to make
it this year as well. Damian Lillard added 25 points on 8-21 field goal
shooting while also contributing seven assists, six rebounds, and three
steals. Trae Young poured in a game-high 35 points on 9-18 field goal
shooting and 14-17 free throw shooting, and he distributed a game-high
10 assists. It is difficult to read the 14-13 Hawks: they are 2-0
against Cleveland, 2-0 against New York, 1-1 against Boston--but 0-2
against Chicago, and 0-2 against the pathetic Washington "Wheeze-hards."
The
Rockets led the Thunder for most of the first half, but the Thunder's
stout defense wore down the Rockets in the second half as the Thunder
outscored the Rockets 70-54 to cruise to a 111-96 win. The Thunder shot
36-80 (.450) from the field while holding the Rockets to 35-96 (.365)
field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32
points on 8-21 field goal shooting and 14-15 free throw shooting while
also snaring eight rebounds and dishing for six assists. Isaiah
Hartenstein had a strong game with 21 points and eight rebounds, Jalen
Williams contributed 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and Lu
Dort added 19 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Other than
Hartenstein, the Thunder lack size, but they are an athletic team that
plays with high energy. Amen Thompson led the Rockets with 19 points off
of the bench, but no other Rocket scored more than 14 points.
The
20-5 Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference, while
the surging 14-11 Bucks have the sixth best record in the Eastern
Conference despite starting the season 1-6. The Thunder looked like a
championship contender from the start of this season, while the Bucks
just now seem to be rounding into form, although their perimeter defense
and their depth are still questionable. The Thunder have the statistical profile of a championship team,
ranking first in defensive field goal percentage (.424), first in point
differential (12.0), and first in points allowed (103.5 ppg). They also
lead the league both in forcing turnovers and fewest turnovers
committed, and those extra possessions help compensate for their middle
of the pack 16th ranking in rebounding. Lack of size (which impacts
rebounding, of course) is the main concern for the Thunder. The Bucks
have won 12 of their last 15 games, and have moved up to sixth in
defensive field goal percentage (.451), 14th in point differential
(1.1), and 13th in points allowed (111.9 ppg). Lillard will always be a
defensive liability, but the Bucks protect the paint well, ranking sixth
in blocked shots. Rebounding is a concern: the Bucks rank just 22nd,
and other than Antetokounmpo (11.5 rpg) and Bobby Portis (7.7 rpg) no
Buck is averaging more than 5 rpg.
The NBA Cup, as TNT's
Kenny Smith mentioned, is more like the NCAA Tournament than the NBA
playoffs; the best team generally wins the NBA championship, but in the
NBA Cup a team can get hot for one game and knock out a superior team.
For that reason, Smith picked the Bucks to beat the Thunder, even though
he rates the Thunder as the better overall team. The Bucks are the only
undefeated team (6-0) in NBA Cup games this season, and I agree with
Smith's pick; specifically, I expect Antetokounmpo to dominate: in his
only game versus the Thunder last season, he scored a game-high 30
points and snatched a game-high 19 rebounds in just 34 minutes as the
Bucks won, 118-93. Khris Middleton, who recently returned to the lineup
this season on a minutes restriction, had a triple double (11 points, 10
rebounds, 10 assists) in that rout, and he performed well in the Bucks'
other game versus the Thunder last season (18 points, seven rebounds,
six assists), but Antetotokounmpo and Lillard both did not play in that
18 point loss.
It is interesting to note that Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham
led the L.A. Lakers to the inaugural NBA Cup title last season before the Lakers fired him and
replaced him with J.J. Redick.
The amazing thing about Redick--who has coached the Lakers to a tie for
10th-11th (out of 15 teams) in the West so far with a 13-12 record--is
that, at least according to him, the Lakers have had the right game plan
every single game, only to fall short because the players simply don't
adhere to his wise teaching and superior basketball knowledge; the
Lakers have not once been outcoached this season--just ask Redick, and
he'll be happy to tell you, and there is no doubt that this message
resonates well with his players, particularly coming from a coach whose
prior experience consisted entirely of coaching AAU kids. There is
nothing that NBA players like more than being talked down to by a coach
who has never won anything at the NBA level as a player or as a coach.
It would be interesting to hear Ham's candid thoughts about the Lakers,
and about Redick, but Ham is too busy helping the Bucks improve to waste
much time pondering the overhyped and underperforming Lakers.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Darvin Ham, Giannis Antetokounmpo, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 AM
Milwaukee and Oklahoma City Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 in the first of four NBA Cup quarterfinal games. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 37 points on 15-24 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high four blocked shots. Damian Lillard added 28 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter--and a game-high nine assists. Antetokounmpo (game-high six turnovers) and Lillard (four turnovers) had 10 of the Bucks' 16 turnovers. Bobby Portis contributed 22 points and a team-high 10 rebounds off of the bench, while former All-Star Khris Middleton--who is on a minutes restriction as he recovers from offseason surgeries on both of his ankles--had eight assists, four rebounds, and three steals in 20 scoreless minutes.
The Magic battled throughout the game--enjoying an 11 point lead early in the second quarter, and leading 107-106 with just 40.6 seconds remaining in the game--despite being without the services of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, their two best players who are both sidelined with oblique injuries. Jalen Suggs scored a career-high 32 points and had a game-high four steals, Anthony Black (17 points) and Moritz Wagner (13 points on 6-6 field goal shooting) played well off of the bench, and Goga Bitadze made his presence felt with 12 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and four assists.
On paper, this game should have been a blowout, as the Bucks feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--Antetokounmpo and Lillard--while the Magic sans Banchero do not have a single current or former All-Star, but the Magic play hard, they play unselfishly, and they play tough defense. The Bucks committed seven turnovers in the first quarter, tying their season-high for first quarter turnovers, and enabling the Magic to sprint to a 10 point first quarter lead before settling for a 33-25 advantage at the end of the first quarter.
The Bucks eventually outlasted the outmatched Magic, but the Bucks' shaky perimeter defense makes it difficult to picture them enjoying a deep playoff run; their guards struggle to stay in front of the opposing team's guards, which forces their big men to help and thus leave the basket unattended. They could really use a tough, defensive-minded guard like Boston's Jrue Holiday--but they traded Holiday away for Damian Lillard, who is invisible defensively.
The Bucks will be a solid playoff team as long as they have a healthy Antetokounmpo doing everything, but until they recapture the defensive identity that they used to have they will not be a title contender. The scrappy young Magic are a team on the rise--not ready to win a title this season, but building good habits and gaining valuable experience.
In the second game of TNT's doubleheader (and the second NBA Cup quarterfinal game), the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Dallas Mavericks, 118-104. The Mavericks outrebounded the Thunder by nearly 5 rpg en route to a 4-2 series win in the 2024 playoffs, but in this game the Thunder outrebounded the Mavericks 52-44 as offseason acquisition Isaiah Hartenstein ripped down a game-high 13 rebounds. The silky smooth Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting while also compiling eight rebounds, five assists, and three steals. All five Thunder starters scored in double figures, and the Thunder bench added 29 points. Klay Thompson and Naji Marshall led the Mavericks with 19 points each, but Dallas' top two players both had off nights: Luka Doncic finished with 16 points on 5-15 field goal shooting (though he did have 11 rebounds and five assists), and Kyrie Irving had 17 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Dereck Lively II tied Hartenstein for game-high rebounding honors, but he scored just four points as the Thunder shut down Dallas' lob game at the rim without giving up anything on the perimeter. The Thunder beat the reigning Western Conference champions despite being without the services of the injured Chet Holmgren. After the game, Gilgeous-Alexander said that it was a point of emphasis to "be the aggressor" versus a team that pushed them around in previous matchups.
During the halftime show of the Oklahoma City-Dallas game, Kenny Smith observed that the Thunder make a conscious effort to "touch the paint" even on possessions that end in three point attempts, and he said that the way that the Thunder attack the paint separates them from teams that just jack up three pointers without putting pressure on the defense.
On Wednesday night, the New York Knicks will host the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets will host the Golden State Warriors in the last two NBA Cup quarterfinal games, with the winners facing Milwaukee and Oklahoma City respectively as the NBA Cup concludes in Las Vegas with semifinal games on Saturday and the championship game next Tuesday.
The NBA's media partners are contractually obligated to hype up the NBA Cup, but the NBA's TV ratings are down this season and it is not difficult to figure out why: the product just is not as good as it used to be for a variety of reasons, including load management, tanking, and most teams playing the same analytics-driven, cookie-cutter offense focused on jacking up as many corner three pointers as possible. I am a basketball lifer, and I don't find this brand of basketball as captivating or entertaining as basketball used to be, so I can only imagine how casual fans must feel. The NBA Cup will not solve the NBA's problems, and in some ways I would argue that it makes things worse. Last year when the NBA Cup debuted, I pointed out two flaws in the format:
There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1)
the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play
resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and
(2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did
not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am
all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer,
but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a
blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics
meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of
the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the
reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a
particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance
for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?
The NBA does not care about these issues because the league is desperate to come up with any gimmick to induce the players to (1) stop sitting out games and (2) play hard when they are not sitting out games. Personal pride and competitive spirit are rare commodities now, so the NBA is paying $100,000 to each player on a quarterfinal winning team, with escalating prizes for the teams that advance further in the tournament. Antetokounmpo is one of the few players who still plays hard, but it was not a good look (or sound) when--in response to a question about that $100,000 payment--he laughed and said, "The rich get richer." Many Americans are struggling to put food on the table, with the average annual personal income being just $63,214, so bragging about making more in less than three hours than most people make in a year is not funny or endearing. Not to get overly political, but it sure seems like many athletes and entertainers are Democrats who complain about how much money wealthy people make and how little they pay in taxes, but I have yet to hear of an athlete or an entertainer offering to live on $63,214 per year (or even a "mere" $630,000 per year), so perhaps they should complain less about the economic system or the taxation system that benefits them so much; if they aren't giving up their own money that they receive from guaranteed contracts that don't even require them to show up to work every day then they are in no position to speak about how people who actually have to show up to work to get paid should spend their money or be taxed.
It is unfortunate that the NBA has to stoop to providing extra cash to NBA players who are already earning generational wealth in the hope that players will play hard. It has been reported that the NBA will change the 2025 All-Star Game format to a tournament featuring three eight-player All-Star teams plus the winning team from the Rising Stars Challenge playing round robin games with a 40 point target score. Presumably, the NBA will throw still more cash at the NBA All-Stars and beg the players to at least pretend to give effort. The NBA All-Star Game descended to a new low last February as the teams combined to lauch 168 three point shots while attempting just five free throws as the
Eastern Conference All-Stars routed the Western Conference All-Stars,
211-186.
Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Suggs, Luka Doncic, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahama City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:11 AM
Knicks Beat Sluggish 76ers 111-99 in NBA Cup Opener
The second annual NBA Cup began on Tuesday night as the New York Knicks defeated the Philadelphia 76ers, 111-99. OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 24 points on 11-16 field goal shooting, and Karl-Anthony Towns had a strong all-around game with 21 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and six assists. Jalen Brunson had a quiet game (18 points on 5-15 field goal shooting, five assists, game-high six turnovers) by his lofty standards, particularly considering that he torched the 76ers for 35.5 ppg in the 2024 playoffs. Paul George led the 76ers with a game-high 29 points and a team-high 10 rebounds, and Jared McCain added 23 points off of the bench. Joel Embiid's season debut was a dud: 13 points on 2-11 field goal shooting, five assists, and just three rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the 76ers 47-40, and outshot them from the field .494 (44-89) to .373 (.31-83).
I explained the NBA Cup's format and rules in a July 10, 2023 article. The Knicks lost to the Milwaukee Bucks last year 110-105 in the first game of the inaugural NBA Cup. Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points in that contest. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers to win the inaugural NBA Cup, after which the Lakers lost to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2024 NBA playoffs while the Pacers advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals before being swept by the Boston Celtics. Although the NBA heavily hypes up the NBA Cup, overall the NBA's viewership ratings went down slightly last season, and the 2024 NBA Finals had the lowest viewership since 2021.
Load management, tanking, and the proliferation of analytics-driven increases in three point shooting are three reasons that the NBA game is not as entertaining or interesting as it used to be. This Knicks-76ers game embodies much of what is wrong with the modern NBA: the 76ers are infamous for tanking to get Embiid, who they are now load managing in hopes of keeping him healthy for the playoffs, and these two teams combined to jack up 73 three pointers while making just 23 of them. Who wants to watch 50 three pointers clank off of the rim?
The NBA game used to feature above the rim play, midrange shooting, and teams running a variety of different offenses, but now the NBA game features teams jacking up as many three pointers as possible. The NBA game also used to feature more physicality; it is more entertaining to see a great player score when he is being defended toughly, as opposed to seeing the scoreboard light up while little to no defensive resistance is provided. The NBA All-Star Game has not only become a joke, but it has become a template for the regular season NBA as well. Players get paid more than ever to play less and compete less than ever, which leaves fans feeling justifiably turned off.
The NBA was a much better league when load management and tanking did not exist, and when players played hard because they loved the game.
The talented but inconsistent Embiid is the poster child for the NBA's decline over the past 10 years or so. Embiid looked out of shape and rusty, and he was noticeably winded almost immediately after the game began. TNT's Stan Van Gundy make weak excuses for Embiid, arguing that Embiid is in shape and that nothing compares to playing under game conditions, but the sad reality is that Embiid has been in suboptimal condition for most of his career, which is likely a big reason that Embiid is injured so often. Embiid should have been able to do enough cardio work to be better prepared to play.
The 76ers' stated plan to rest Embiid and not have him play in back to back games will not help Embiid get in shape or work off the rust, so even if the 76ers qualify for the playoffs they will not be poised to make a deep run. The 76ers' newest "Big Three" has yet to play together in a game, as Tyrese Maxey is out with a hamstring injury, Embiid missed the first nine games of this season, and George missed the first five games of this season due to a bone bruise in his left knee.
Instead of giving NBA players even more money to compete for the NBA Cup, the NBA should limit or eliminate guaranteed salaries; if players did not get paid to sit out then they would be less inclined to do so, and if players who are not performing up to par could be cut without having a golden parachute then players would be incentivized to play hard. I understand that the Players Association would fight tooth and nail to preserve guaranteed contracts, but if the NBA continues to put a subpar product on the floor then it risks killing the goose that is laying the golden eggs.
Labels: Jalen Brunson, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 11:28 AM
Davis Dominates as Lakers Beat Pacers 123-109 to Win Inaugural NBA Cup
Anthony Davis scored a game-high 41 points, grabbed a game-high 20 rebounds, had a game-high four blocked shots, and passed for five assists as the L.A. Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the NBA Cup Championship Game. The NBA Cup Championship Game statistics do not officially count as regular season statistics or as playoff statistics, but it is still worth mentioning that Davis is just the third player in Lakers history to post a 40-20-5 game: Elgin Baylor accomplished this 13 times, and Wilt Chamberlain did it twice. Davis shot 16-24 from the field, and he controlled the paint at both ends of the court. He shot 9-13 from the free throw line and he did not attempt a single three pointer. LeBron James added 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He only attempted one three pointer, and the only blemish on his boxscore numbers was that he committed a game-high six turnovers. James won the NBA Cup MVP award, which was based on play throughout the entire tournament and not just in the Championship Game. Austin Reaves scored 28 points off of the bench on 9-15 field goal shooting and 10-12 field goal shooting. The Lakers scored 86 points in the paint, more than any team has scored in the paint in any game this season, and they shot 43-65 (.662) in the paint.
The Lakers shot 2-13 (.154) from three point range and won by double digits; one of the most amusing NBA fairy tales is the one about how a team "needs range shooting to win in the modern NBA." The funniest thing about that fairy tale is that no amount of evidence will convince the "stat gurus" that they are wrong, a point that we will revisit in April and May when the teams that jack up three pointers are eliminated one by one from the playoffs. The Pacers shot 10-41 (.244) from three point range. If you're wondering what it would look like if one of the better teams from the 1980s played a typical team from today's NBA, this game provided a glimpse of a team utilizing its size and high percentage two point shooting to overwhelm a smaller team that relies on three point shooting.
I have emphasized for years how much size matters in the NBA, and the Lakers' performance in this game is yet another example proving that point to be true. Size matters not only on offense but also on defense. The bigger, stronger Lakers physically overwhelmed the Pacers, holding them to 35-95 (.368) field goal shooting while outrebounding them 55-32. Tyrese Haliburton had a solid game (20 points, 11 assists, three turnovers), but he did not control the action the way that he did up to this point in the Pacers' NBA Cup games; the Lakers trapped him with size, forcing him to shoot or pass over much bigger defenders. Bennedict Mathurin scored 20 points off of the bench. Myles Turner is averaging 17.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 2.1 bpg while shooting .506 from the field this season, but the Lakers held him to 10 points on 3-11 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and no blocked shots. No Pacer other than Turner had more than five rebounds.
In the NBA Cup Semifinals, the Pacers defeated the Milwaukee Bucks and the Lakers destroyed the New Orleans Pelicans, setting up a Pacers-Lakers matchup in the first NBA Cup Championship. Both teams entered the Championship Game undefeated in NBA Cup play. In my NBA Cup preview, I predicted that the Lakers would win the Championship Game because they "will pound the paint with James and Davis" (although I expected the Lakers to face the Milwaukee Bucks, not the Indiana Pacers).
The Lakers relentlessly attacked the paint from the beginning of the game. In the first quarter, the Lakers scored 26 points in the paint on 13-20 (.650) field goal shooting, and they led 34-29 heading into the second quarter. Davis dominated the first quarter with 13 points on 6-9 field goal shooting and eight rebounds. The Lakers trapped Tyrese Haliburton and their size bothered him, limiting him to three points on 1-3 field goal shooting, three assists, and two turnovers after he did not commit a single turnover in the previous two NBA Cup games.
In the second quarter, Reaves erupted for 15 points on 5-6 field goal shooting. The Lakers led 65-60 at halftime, outscoring the Pacers in the paint 52-22 while shooting 26-37 (.703) in the paint. The Lakers shot 0-6 from three point range in the first half. Yes, it is possible to outscore the NBA's highest scoring team in a half without making a single three pointer! When the Lakers won the 2020 NBA championship, they dominated the paint: they ranked first in field goal percentage, eighth in defensive field goal percentage, and ninth in rebounding, but they ranked just 23rd in three point field goals attempted and 21st in three point field goal percentage. The notion that LeBron James needs "lasers" (great outside shooters) to win championships is demonstrably false.
During the post-halftime interview, Lakers Coach Darvin Ham succinctly summarized the Lakers' game plan: "Dominate the paint. Play inside out."
The Pacers stayed close during the third quarter, only losing that stanza 25-22, but the Lakers won the fourth quarter 33-27 while shooting 12-20 (.600) from the field. In the fourth quarter, the Lakers shot 10-15 in the paint and 1-2 from three point range.
The Pacers are doing the best that they can with a young, undersized team. They are not a championship contender, but they are a dangerous team, and they have demonstrated that they will not back down from anyone; unlike the Pelicans, they did not quit against the Lakers despite being overpowered.
The Lakers won the NBA Cup by playing the right way eight times in November and December; in order to win the real NBA championship, they will have to play the right way 16 times spread out over four playoff series, and in at least two of those series they will face a team that is better than the Pacers. Will James, Davis, and company be physically healthy and mentally focused enough to win the NBA title? During the James-Davis era, the Lakers have a 26-17 record in the playoffs, with one 2020 "bubble" title and one season during which they missed the playoffs (2022). Take away the neutral court playoff games played in the Orlando "bubble" in 2020, and the James-Davis Lakers have a 10-12 playoff record.
During the NBA Cup, we saw the Lakers' ceiling, but during the past three years we have seen their floor, so it will be interesting to see which Lakers squad shows up for the 2024 playoffs.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, NBA Cup, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 12:29 AM
NBA Cup Knockout Rounds Preview
Initially, I was skeptical that the NBA's in-season tournament would cure tanking and load management, but during Group Play it was evident that teams were playing harder than they have typically played during recent regular seasons; that it is both a welcome development and a sad commentary on the mentality of today's players and teams: the players and teams from basketball's golden age (the 1980s) did not need gimmicks to provide special motivation to play hard. I agree with Shaquille O'Neal that players are playing hard now not because of the prestige of the NBA Cup--the NBA Cup has no prestige yet--but because each player on the championship team will receive $500,000. I still say that the best way to permanently eliminate tanking and load management is to (1) relegate the worst teams to the G League and (2) prohibit the worst teams from participating in the NBA Draft. Losing revenue and losing draft picks will put a quick end to intentional losing, and will put a much better product on the floor than we have seen in the NBA in a long time.
There are at least two drawbacks with the current NBA Cup format: (1) the use of point differential as the first tiebreaker in Group Play resulted in farcical situations during which teams ran up the score, and (2) there will be quirky scheduling this week for the teams that did not qualify for knockout round play. Regarding the first drawback, I am all for players and teams playing hard from opening tip to final buzzer, but intentionally running up the score in the waning moments of a blowout looks silly and renders those individual and team statistics meaningless: how many more points would the great teams and players of the past have scored if teams ran up the score instead of putting in the reserves? Regarding the second drawback, if a fan wants to see a particular visiting player or team how is he supposed to plan in advance for a week in which the schedule is dotted with "TBD"?
The NBA Cup has produced some exciting moments so far, but at its core it is still a gimmick that was introduced (1) to generate more revenue (because the NBA cares about profits more than it cares about anything else) and (2) to encourage players and teams that have not been playing hard to play hard.
Eight teams advanced from Group Play to the Knockout Rounds: Indiana (East Group A winner), Milwaukee (East Group B winner), Boston (East Group C winner), and New York (East Wild Card) in the East, and L.A. Lakers (West Group A winner), New Orleans (West Group B winner), Sacramento (West Group C winner), and Phoenix (West Wild Card). Due to the vagaries of Group assignments and the small sample size of NBA Cup games, the top three teams in the overall West standings (Minnesota, Oklahoma City, and Denver) did not qualify for the Knockout Rounds, and the second ranked team in the overall East standings (Orlando) also did not qualify.
Boston visits Indiana tonight, followed by Sacramento hosting New Orleans. On Tuesday night, Milwaukee hosts New York while Phoenix visits L.A. The Semifinal games will be played on Thursday, while the Championship--the only NBA Cup game that will not count in the regular season standings and statistics--will be telecast by ABC on Saturday night from Las Vegas.
The single elimination format makes upsets and random outcomes more likely, which is fine for the NCAA Tournament for a variety of reasons but runs counter to the NBA's long tradition of using playoff series to determine which teams are superior. Keeping that in mind, here are my brief thoughts about the Knockout Rounds.
Indiana has the NBA's highest scoring offense (128.8 ppg) and the league's worst scoring defense (125.9 ppg), while Boston ranks eighth in scoring offense (116.7 ppg) and fourth in scoring defense (107.4 ppg). Look for Boston's superior balance to rule the day. Milwaukee is still working out the kinks with the Giannis Antetkounmpo-Damian Lillard duo while figuring out to how to replace Jrue Holiday's defense and leadership, but Milwaukee squeaked by New York in Group Play and should be expected to beat New York again. Milwaukee would then host Boston in the Semifinals. I'll take Milwaukee at home.
LeBron James has already publicly stated his goal to win the NBA Cup and get that extra $500,000, so this week he will not be in his infamous, self-described "chill mode." Anthony Davis' attention often drifts and his body often seems brittle, but he shined during the Lakers' run to the 2020 "bubble title" and I suspect that he will be in top form for the last three NBA Cup games. L.A. will win a shootout versus Phoenix, and then survive a close game versus Sacramento after Sacramento dispatches New Orleans.
We have yet to see Antetokounmpo face James in the NBA Finals, but the league office will be quite happy to showcase them in the NBA Cup Championship. Antetokounmpo will do his part, but L.A. will pound the paint with James and Davis while Lillard will miss too many three pointers as James adds the NBA Cup to his glittering resume.
It will be interesting to see not only how these eight teams do in the NBA Cup's single elimination format, but also how far they advance in the 2024 playoffs when battling for the real championship.
Labels: Giannis Antetokounmpo, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup
posted by David Friedman @ 2:18 AM
Milwaukee Holds Off New York 110-105 in the First NBA Cup Game
I already provided my skeptical perspective about the NBA's in-season NBA Cup tournament.
I will add that I can see how young fans might be excited about the unique and colorful NBA Cup court designs and about watching their favorite players and
teams competing for a special trophy--but that excitement will dissipate
quickly unless the players and teams take the NBA Cup a lot more
seriously than many of them have taken the regular season recently. As a long-time basketball fan/historian, I hope that the NBA Cup will be successful in terms of featuring competitive basketball.
The NBA Cup began on Friday night in Milwaukee with the 2-2 Bucks hosting the 2-3 New York Knicks. NBA Cup games count both in the regular season standings and in terms of qualifying for the NBA Cup tournament in December; the only NBA Cup game which will not count in the regular season standings is the December 9 championship game, which will be a stand alone game just like the Play-In Tournament games are not counted as regular season games or playoff games.
The Bucks led most of the way but had to scramble after Jalen Brunson's three pointer put the Knicks ahead 103-101 with just 1:10 remaining in the fourth quarter; that proved to the Knicks' first--and only--second half lead, as Damian Lillard answered with a three pointer followed by a conventional three point play and the Bucks preserved the win by making three out of four free throws in the final 18 seconds.
Lillard led the Bucks with 30 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He
scored 15 fourth quarter points and did not commit a turnover in the
final stanza. Antetokounmpo added 22 points, eight rebounds, and six
assists. He had a game-high seven turnovers, and a game-high +13
plus/minus number; Lillard's plus/minus number (+2) ranked sixth on the
team. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should generally be taken
with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the way that Lillard
plays--often shooting long three pointers, and often not playing much
defense--is not typically the way that championship players play,
notwithstanding his proven ability to win individual games with his
clutch shooting. Lillard scored 21.3 ppg on .400 field goal shooting in his first four games as a Buck. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.3 ppg on 20.3 field goal attempts per game, but through the first four games this season he averaged 24.5 ppg on 16.8 field goal attempts per game. It should not take a "stat guru" or mathematical genius to figure out that taking shots away from an efficient Antetokounmpo who attacks the paint to give those shots to an undersized Lillard who shoots logo three pointers is not a recipe for creating an optimally efficient offense. If Lillard is as great and unselfish as he is supposed to be, then it should not be a problem for the Bucks to run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo and Lillard that generates (1) easy shots for Antetokounmpo in the paint, (2) open shots for Lillard closer than 30 feet from the hoop, and (3) open shots for their teammates if the opponent denies the first two options.
Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points on 17-30 field goal shooting. He had a +2 plus/minus number in a game that his team lost by five points. Quentin Grimes (17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and Immanuel Quickley (14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting) played well, but Julius Randle has become the least efficient volume scorer in the NBA: he finished with 16 points on 5-20 field goal shooting, and that is just not good enough even though his floor game was excellent (12 rebounds, team-high tying five assists, just one turnover in 39 minutes). The Knicks dominated the larger Bucks 56-41 on the boards, and they outscored the Bucks 59-54 in the second half. If Randle had been mediocre instead of terrible then the Knicks would have won.
A 110-105 victory over a less than impressive Knicks team should be nothing special for a team with championship aspirations, but the Bucks need every win they can get because the Damian Lillard honeymoon did not last long in Milwaukee. Lillard poured in 39 points in an opening night win versus the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Bucks lost two of their next three games. Double digit losses to the non-contending Hawks and Raptors sandwiched around a win versus the thus-far lethargic Heat hardly inspire confidence, particularly considering that in this admittedly small sample size of games the Bucks have slipped from being an elite defensive team last season to being an atrocious defensive team.
The Bucks made two major offseason changes: they fired Mike Budenholzer--who coached the Bucks to the 2021 championship with a defense-first mindset--and replaced him with former NBA player Adrian Griffin, who has never been a head coach at any level; they traded away all-around guard Jrue Holiday for Lillard, a prolific scorer who thinks defense is what surrounds the yard. Without Budenholzer and Holiday, it is not surprising that the Bucks are struggling to stay in front of perimeter players and that collectively they look confused defensively. I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Lillard trade but despite it; I am not convinced that the trade made the Bucks better, but I am convinced that a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, generational player. The Bucks must make Antetokounmpo the focal point of the offense, and they must figure out how to hide Lillard's defensive deficiencies.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 12:20 AM
NBA's In-Season Tournament Will not Cure the NBA's Load Management, Tanking, and Flopping Problems
Next season, the NBA will have an in-season tournament, with the winner being awarded the NBA Cup (which could be renamed if/when corporate sponsors provide funding). The NBA issued an official press release explaining the in-season tournament's format and rules but the short explanation is that no extra games will be added to the regular season, a prize pool will be distributed after the NBA Cup concludes, and an MVP and All-Tournament Team will be selected. Each player from the championship team will receive $500,000, while each player from the runner-up team will receive $200,000; players whose teams lose in the semifinals will receive $100,000 each, and players whose teams lose in the quarterfinals will receive $50,000 each. The tournament games will be part of the regular season schedule except for the championship game, which will be an extra game for which the statistics will not be counted as either regular season statistics or playoff statistics (much like the statistics from all of the Play-In Tournament games are not officially counted as regular season statistics or playoff statistics). This neither fish nor fowl treatment of game statistics for a game that is supposed to be important is ridiculous. At the very least, the NBA should create a separate category if it does not want the championship game numbers counted as part of the regular season or the postseason.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver has advocated for an in-season tournament for over a decade, and there is little doubt that his fans--who adore every move he makes while also belittling the style and policies of his great predecessor David Stern--will waste no time declaring that the in-season tournament is a brilliant innovation. The reality is that the in-season tournament is not innovative at all; it is derivative, because the concept has already been applied in soccer and other sports. If anything, adding an in-season tournament to the NBA's calendar after the league thrived for several decades without such a tournament seems more like a gimmicky, desperation move than a creative act. Of course, the bottom line here is about money, not creativity. The NBA cares more about profits than anything else, so the success of the NBA Cup will be measured quite simply in dollars and cents: if the fans show up and tune in, if the advertisers and sponsors buy the concept (literally and figuratively), and if the TV networks enthusiastically broadcast and promote these games then the NBA could not care less about any criticism.
It will be very interesting to see how seriously the teams, coaches, and players treat the in-season tournament. If we see the load managing and tanking that are all too common throughout the regular season--and keep in mind that all of the tournament games except the championship game count in the regular season standings--then the NBA Cup will not gain much traction.
I would prefer that the NBA focused on minimizing load managing, tanking, and flopping as opposed to adding an in-season tournament that will never have the same historical prestige or importance as the NBA championship. Hopefully, the NBA's new anti-flopping rule will rein in at least the most egregious and habitual offenders. Flopping is not a new problem--Dave Cowens railed against it in the 1970s, correctly calling it cheating--but it is more prevalent than it used to be, and it is rewarded far too often by referees who get duped more often than Elmer Fudd does when pursuing Bugs Bunny.
While flopping taints individual plays and games, load managing and tanking devalue seasonal player statistics and team records. Playing all 82 games used to be a badge of honor for NBA players before load management and tanking became accepted practices, and because everybody played hard the players' statistics meant something. Now, players can rack up big numbers against teams that are trying to lose, and good teams can pad their win totals by stacking up victories against teams that are trying to lose. The evidence shows that in general tanking does not work, and the Philadelphia 76ers--contrary to the ridiculous assertion of one book title--have not "tanked to the top," but even though "stat gurus" claim to make data driven decisions many "stat gurus" continue to follow this demonstrably unfavorable path.
The NBA's Play-In Tournament was supposed to mitigate load managing and tanking by providing an incentive for teams to keep playing hard until the end of the season, but the reality is that the last games of the regular season often resemble preseason games in terms of quality and star player participation. I watch the NBA's Play-In Tournament because I watch great NBA basketball, good NBA basketball, and bad NBA basketball, not because I think that the Play-In Tournament is a great concept or because the Play-In Tournament games are particularly intriguing.
If the NBA is going to model itself after other sports leagues, then the NBA should get rid of the Play-In Tournament, scrap the nascent NBA Cup event, and solve many of its current problems with one big change: introduction of relegation. Relegation refers to sending teams that finish at the bottom of the standings to a lower, less prestigious league. The NBA already has a lower, less prestigious league now (the NBA G League), so that part of the infrastructure is already in place. The prospect of relegation--which would translate directly into teams having lower earnings, less prestige, and consequently lower market value--would likely put an immediate end to both tanking and load management, because the costs of those strategies would be way too high and the negative impact would be obvious even to "stat gurus" with questionable number crunching skills.
Further, the NBA should not only relegate the worst teams but it should also either not let those teams participate in the NBA Draft at all or at a minimum it should bar those teams from participating in the NBA Draft Lottery.
To be clear, I understand that it is extremely unlikely that the owners or the players will ever agree to put a relegation system in place--but if the owners and players were serious about making the game better in the long run as opposed to grabbing every available dollar in the short run then they would embrace the relegation system.
Labels: load management, NBA Cup, tanking
posted by David Friedman @ 1:38 AM
