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Nuggets Silence Thunder to Force a Game Seven on Sunday in Oklahoma City

The Denver Nuggets have pushed the league-leading 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, winning game six 119-107 to extend the series to a seventh game in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Thunder are nine wins away from capturing the 2025 NBA title and being recognized as one of the greatest single season teams of all-time--and they are one loss away from forever disqualifying themselves from being mentioned in that discussion. It will be interesting to see how the young Thunder respond to the pressure.

Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets in scoring (29 points on 9-14 field goal shooting), rebounding (14), and assists (eight), but he received significant help from Jamal Murray (25 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) and Christian Braun (23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists). Julian Strawther scored 15 points in just under 20 minutes off of the bench, exceeding his scoring output (14 points) from the previous games in the series combined. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 11-16 field goal shooting while dishing for six assists, and Chet Holmgren contributed 19 points plus a team-high 11 rebounds, but the other Thunder players combined to score just 56 points on 24-60 (.400) field goal shooting. 

The Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 52-40, and the Nuggets overpowered the Thunder physically for large stretches of the game. Denver jumped out to a 30-20 lead late in the first quarter, but the Thunder went on a 38-16 run to go up 58-46 at the 2:05 mark of the second quarter. The Nuggets tied the score at 58 before Lu Dort's three pointer just before the buzzer put the Thunder up 61-58 at halftime. The Nuggets outscored the Thunder 32-21 in the third quarter while winning the points in the paint battle 16-12 and outrebounding the Thunder 17-10. Both teams shot worse than .420 from the field in the fourth quarter, but the Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 16-6, and exploited those extra possessions to outscore the Thunder 29-25. Jokic scored 11 fourth quarter points.

Jokic has been the best player in the series so far, leading both teams with 29.8 ppg and 14.7 rpg. Jokic is averaging 5.7 apg--well below his regular season average of 10.2 apg--but part of his decline in that statistical category is due to his teammates shooting just .393 from the field. Jokic dominated during Denver's game one win (42 points on 15-29 field goal shooting, 22 rebounds, six assists), and he had 44 points on 17-29 field goal shooting in Denver's game five loss, but in games two-four he averaged 21.3 ppg on 21-63 (.333) field goal shooting; it would not be fair to say that the Thunder shut him down, but the Thunder made him much less efficient and somewhat less productive than usual.  

Gilgeous-Alexander has had an excellent series, averaging 28.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 7.0 apg. Except for his 18 point outing in Oklahoma City's game three loss, he has scored between 25 and 34 points in every game, topping 30 points four times. He is a worthy MVP candidate--and is generally expected to be the winner after finishing second to Jokic last year--but there is no doubt that Jokic is both more productive statistically and more impactful on opposing defenses: Jokic is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer who punishes opponents physically while also taxing them mentally because he is thinking the game at such a high level. Gilgeous-Alexander is an exceptional player, but a 6-6 guard just cannot affect the game the same way that a versatile big man can.

What should we expect to see in game seven? The Nuggets won game one in Oklahoma City, got blown out in game two, captured game three to maintain homecourt advantage, and then lost two straight games to fall behind 3-2 before winning game six at home to avoid elimination. "Experts" speak about "momentum," but the reality is that (1) each game in a playoff series is a separate entity and (2) over the course of a series what matters most is the exploitation of matchup advantages. I picked Oklahoma City to win this series in six games, based primarily on the notion that the Thunder would use their suffocating defense to wear down the Nuggets, which has not happened so far: the series statistics through six games are skewed a bit by the Thunder's 149-106 game two win, but in the other five games the Nuggets have outscored the Thunder 545-534. It is possible that in game seven Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will cancel each other out, and the series will be decided by the Thunder's superior depth overwhelming the Nuggets; that is the most likely outcome. 

However, there are two Denver advantages worth noting: (1) Jokic is capable of skewing everything by putting up a monster stat line (40-plus points, 20-plus rebounds, 15-plus assists) that Gilgeous-Alexander cannot match (his playoff career highs--not in the same game--are 38 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists), and (2) the Nuggets have several veterans from their 2023 championship team (Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.) who have come through in big playoff games and will not be intimidated by playing on the road in game seven, while the Thunder have only one player who has won an NBA title (Alex Caruso with the 2020 Lakers).

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 PM

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