20 Second Timeout

San Antonio Versus Minnesota Preview

Western Conference Second Round

#2 San Antonio (62-20) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)

Season series: Minnesota, 2-1 

Minnesota can win if…the Timberwolves bully the Spurs in the paint and slow down the Spurs' transition game. The Timberwolves defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the first round, and they have eliminated the Nuggets twice in the past three seasons (2024, 2026) after losing to the Nuggets during the Nuggets' 2023 championship season. The Timberwolves are seeking their third straight trip to the Western Conference Finals, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Golden State Warriors reached the Western Conference Finals five consecutive times (2015-19).

Denver beat Minnesota in game one when Minnesota seemed more focus on acting tough than playing smart, physical basketball, but Minnesota won four of the next five games. Rudy Gobert was the key player in this series, and his impact went far beyond his individual numbers (7.7 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 1.2 bpg) because he anchored Minnesota's defense while holding Nikola Jokic to .446 field goal shooting, his worst field goal percentage in 17 career playoff series and significantly worse than his .520 career playoff field goal percentage. Jokic still led both teams in scoring (25.8 ppg), rebounding (13.2 rpg), and assists (9.5 apg), but he also had a series-high 23 turnovers (seven more than any other player). Gobert's elite defense is the main reason that Jokic shot so poorly and turned the ball over so frequently. Gobert also had a series-high 22 offensive rebounds as the Timberwolves gathered 72 offensive rebounds while holding the Nuggets to 42 offensive rebounds.

Gobert has received a lot of unwarranted criticism from uninformed media members, jealous/uninformed players, and uninformed social media content creators but the documented reality is that for quite some time Minnesota's defense has been significantly better with him on the court than it is with him off of the court. 

Julius Randle ranked second on the team in scoring (19.2 ppg), second in rebounding (7.3 rpg), and first in assists (4.2 apg). Jaden McDaniels averaged 17.8 ppg--including a game-high 32 points in game six--and he hounded Jamal Murray into .357 field goal shooting. McDaniels snared 17 offensive rebounds, trailing only Gobert and leading every Nugget by at least eight.

The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets despite losing Donte DiVincenzo and Anthony Edwards to injuries. Ayo Dosunmu filled the gap, leading Minnesota with 21.8 ppg on .609 field goal shooting--including a playoff career-high 43 points in Minnesota's 112-96 game four win--but he scored just 18 points in Minnesota's game five loss before missing game six due to recurring right calf soreness.  

Edwards has a bone bruise in his left knee and even if he is able to return to action during this series he will likely be limited, particularly considering that he was already battling right knee soreness before he injured his left knee. DiVincenzo ruptured his right Achilles tendon during game four versus Denver and will miss the rest of the playoffs plus most if not all of the 2026-27 regular season. 

San Antonio will win because...the Spurs are dominant defensively, and will pose problems that Minnesota's offense cannot solve sans Edwards and DiVincenzo. Through the games played on April 30, the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in points allowed (100.0 ppg), first in defensive field goal percentage (.403), and second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg) after dominating the Portland Trail Blazers 4-1 in the first round. Victor Wembanyama leads the playoffs in blocked shots (4.0 bpg) as the anchor and paint protector for the Spurs' suffocating defense. 

During the regular season, the Spurs played at an elite level at both ends of the court, ranking second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. They maintained those high standards in the first round; in addition to the numbers mentioned above, they rank fifth in playoff rebounding (44.4 rpg), third in scoring (112.8 ppg), second in blocked shots (7.2 bpg), and fourth in field goal percentage (.484). 

In addition to his shot blocking prowess, Wembanyama averaged 21.0 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.0 apg, and 1.0 spg in the first round. His shooting splits were tremendous: .583/.538/.913. Wembanyama played in four games, missing San Antonio's 120-108 game three win because he was in the concussion protocol after banging his head on the floor in game two. His averages are deflated because he only played 11 minutes in game two, finishing with five points and four rebounds in San Antonio's only loss, a 106-103 setback. 

De'Aaron Fox ranked second on the team in scoring versus Portland (20.2 ppg) while leading the Spurs in assists (6.8 apg). Stephon Castle averaged 19.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, and 4.0 rpg. Wembanyama, Fox, and Castle are a three-headed monster with each player averaging around 20 ppg in the playoffs while being capable of erupting for at least 30 points in any given game.

Other things to consider: The Spurs' only weakness is that--other than Fox and Luke Kornet--the top eight players in their playoff rotation lack significant postseason experience, so it will be interesting to see if the battle-tested Timberwolves are able to exploit this. The Timberwolves showed admirable physicality, resilience, and toughness versus the Nuggets. McDaniels publicly called out the Nuggets for being weak defensively, and he and his teammates backed up his big words with bold actions on the court. It is a bit surprising that the Nuggets could not take advantage of Minnesota's depleted roster to at least force a game seven in Denver, but the young and energetic Spurs can threaten the Timberwolves in ways that the Nuggets did not: the Spurs will push the ball, they will not be as bothered by the Timberwolves' long and rangy perimeter defensive players, and their depth will prove daunting for the shorthanded Timberwolves.

San Antonio will defeat Minnesota in six games.

Labels: Ayo Dosunmu, De'Aaron Fox, Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rudy Gobert, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 8:12 PM

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