San Antonio Versus New York Preview
NBA Finals
San Antonio (62-20) vs. New York (53-29)
Season series: Tied, 1-1 (The Knicks also won the 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game versus Spurs, but that game does not count in the regular season standings)
New York can win if…the Knicks win the possession game by outrebounding the Spurs while also limiting the Spurs' opportunities to score in transition off of turnovers.
The Knicks lead the 2026 NBA playoffs in rebounding differential (9.5 rpg), and the Spurs rank third (4.9 rpg). The Knicks rank fourth in the 2026 playoffs with a 2.5 turnover differential, while the Spurs rank 11th with a -1.39 turnover differential. Obviously, playoff rankings are affected by strength of opposition, but for the Knicks to win this series it is very important for them to have the advantage in both categories because the Spurs rank first in the playoffs in defensive field goal percentage (.413); the Knicks need to have as many possessions as possible because of how difficult it is to score versus the Spurs.
The Knicks own an 11 game winning streak since trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in the first round, and their +262 point differential in those games is the best in NBA history for any 11 game stretch, regular season or playoffs. Overall, the Knicks' +271 point differential in the 2026 playoffs is the best in NBA playoff history for any team prior to the NBA Finals. The Knicks lead the playoffs in scoring (119.9 ppg), points allowed (100.6 ppg), point differential (19.3 ppg), and field goal percentage (.512; no other team is shooting better than .480), while ranking third in defensive field goal percentage (.437).
Jalen Brunson earned the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 25.5 ppg and 7.8 apg while shooting .487 from the field as the Knicks swept the Cleveland Cavaliers, 4-0. Brunson leads the Knicks in playoff scoring (26.9 ppg) and assists (6.6 apg). Brunson has been one of the NBA's top guards ever since the Dallas Mavericks let him walk in free agency in 2022. I'm not sure what kind of "advanced basketball statistics" the Mavericks are using, but breaking up their 2011 championship team, paying Harrison Barnes franchise player money, refusing to pay Brunson $20 million/year (which looks like a bargain now), and trading Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis are just a few of the unwise decisions made by the team's front office in the past 15 years.
Karl-Anthony Towns dazzled with his playmaking (team-high 7.5 apg) as the Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers in the second round, but in the Eastern Conference Finals the Knicks' offense often focused on isolating Brunson to exploit James Harden's horrific defense. Towns still averaged 15.8 ppg, a team-high 12.0 rpg, and 4.0 apg in the series, and his overall playoff averages this year are 16.9 ppg, a team-high 10.6 rpg, and 5.9 apg.
OG Anunoby ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (19.7 ppg), second in steals (1.6 spg), and third in rebounding (6.9 rpg) while shooting .577 from the field. He is very valuable because of his size and versatility, and at times he has been the Knicks' best player even though he does not receive the accolades or attention that Brunson and Towns deservedly get for their high level performances.
Josh Hart ranks just fifth on the team in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg), but he is first in steals (1.8 spg), second in rebounding (8.6 rpg), and third in assists (4.6 apg). Hart is not as big as Anunoby, but he can guard multiple positions well while also serving as a secondary playmaker and double figure scorer.
The Knicks' bench was productive in key moments versus the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Landry Shamet averaged 9.8 ppg with shooting splits that look like typographical errors: .750/.917/.800. Mitchell Robinson snagged 11 offensive rebounds in four games. Robinson suffered a mysterious broken right pinky while the Knicks waited for the Western Conference Finals to end; the Knicks provided no details about how the injury happened other than it did not occur during a game or during a practice. Robinson had surgery and is expected to be available for game one of the NBA Finals. His physicality and rebounding are important.
In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but by the end of the regular season I had lost faith in the Knicks while being very impressed by how well the Boston Celtics played even before Jayson Tatum returned, so I picked the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. The Knicks have performed much better in the 2026 playoffs than even I expected when I initially picked them to reach the NBA Finals.
San Antonio will win because…the Spurs have an incredibly deep and talented roster anchored by Victor Wembanyama, who won the Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in MVP voting in just his third NBA season.
Wembanyama's first playoff run has been exceptional: he leads the Spurs in scoring (23.2 ppg), rebounding (10.8 rpg), and blocked shots (league-leading 3.5 bpg) despite ranking just fourth on the squad in minutes (32.5 mpg). He can score from anywhere on the court, as his playoff shooting splits (.510/.370/.870) indicate, but his biggest impact is on defense; he leads the league in a category that has not even been officially named yet but could be called "Man, I don't think so" because--much like L.L. Cool J felt ambivalent about going to California--ballhandlers take one look at Wembanyama lurking in the paint and decide "Man, I don't think so" in terms of challenging him at the rim. Decades ago, it was said of Bill Russell that what mattered even more than how many shots he blocked and altered were how many shots were not even taken due to his presence. It is fair to say that Wembanyama has that type of looming presence of doom in the paint, and even though conventional wisdom is that the best way to attack a shotblocker is to go straight into his body we do not see too many players opting to directly challenge Wembanyama.
Wembanyama has said that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook, and it is evident that he takes after Westbrook in terms of being a beloved teammate who is fiercely competitive and not trying to make friends with opposing players. The pace at which Wembanyama's NBA body and mind have developed is breathtaking; last season he played in just 46 regular season games as the Spurs limped to a 34-48 record, but this season he played in 64 games while leading the Spurs to the league's second best record. Sometimes, young teams led by a young superstar fail to live up to expectations during the playoffs, but the Spurs dethroned the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder by beating the Thunder 111-103 at Oklahoma City in game seven of the Western Conference Finals. Wembanyama averaged 27.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.7 bpg, and 1.4 spg with shooting splits of .481/.400/.895 to win the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP.
Wembanyama is not a one man team, though; his supporting cast is young but athletic and tough. During the Western Conference Finals, Stephon Castle led the Spurs in assists (7.6 apg) while ranking second in scoring (18.0 ppg), and fifth in rebounding (5.0 rpg). The only negative is that he led the team in turnovers (4.6 tpg) by a wide margin.
Devin Vassell ranked third on the team in scoring in the Western Conference Finals (13.9 ppg), led the team in three point field goals made (21) and steals (1.7 spg), and ranked second in three point field goal percentage (.396).
Rookie guard Dylan Harper contributed 12.0 ppg (fourth on the team) and 5.7 rpg (third on the team) in the Western Conference Finals, while Julian Champagnie added 11.9 ppg, ranked second on the team with 18 three point field goals made, and ranked second in rebounding (6.1 rpg).
De'Aaron Fox missed the first two games of the Western Conference Finals due to a sprained right ankle, but in the five games he played he chipped in 11.2 ppg, 6.2 apg (second on the team), and 5.2 rpg (fourth on the team). The 28 year old is the oldest player in the Spurs' seven man rotation.
Keldon Johnson, the NBA's 2026 Sixth Man of the Year, averaged 9.9 ppg in the Western Conference Finals, and he had 11 points on 4-8 field goal shooting in 16 minutes in game seven, including a team-high eight points on 3-3 field goal shooting in a tightly contested fourth quarter.
The Spurs' rangy and speedy perimeter players are very aggressive defensively because they know that Wembanyama will deter or erase any field goal attempts in the paint.
Other things to consider: Towns is a fascinating player because he has enough talent to do anything on a basketball court; he is limited only by his imagination and his focus level. In his 2016 book Success is the Only Option: The Art of Coaching Extreme Talent, John Calipari (Towns' college coach at Kentucky) discussed at length the methods he used to get the most out of Towns in college while preparing him for a long, high level NBA career (pp. 46-49):
Karl's talent was obvious but he liked to roam around the perimeter, near the three point line, rather than going down low and mixing it up with the big guys. In high school, he attempted a ton of three-point shots and hit for a decent percentage. When he got to Kentucky, that was still his inclination. The finesse game. It was pretty to watch and it would have helped us plenty; after all, players who can shoot the ball form distance are always welcome.
But I wouldn't accept it. We said, "You're going to get in the post [and] you're going to learn to battle." There have been big players in the NBA, six foot ten and up, who are good outside shooters but shy away from physicality down low. They never amount to as much as they could. And then there are guys like Kevin Garnett and Karl Malone, excellent jump shooters who were also skilled and relentless around the hoop. Even Dirk Nowitzki, a seven-footer and one of the best three-point shooters in NBA history, has terrific post moves...
Malone is in the Hall of Fame and Garnett and Nowitkzi will join him the moment they're eligible [Garnett was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2021 as a member of the 2020 class, and Nowitzki was inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2023]. That's the future I envisioned for Karl, but I knew I had him at a formative moment. A window can close on young players. The danger is that they will achieve what may feel like a high level of success without ever having to reach down and develop all aspects of their games...
Karl was invested in being a nice guy. Great, I'd tell him. I love being around you. Everybody does, and hold on to that. But it can't be your persona on the court. I'm never going to accept anything less from you and just shrug it off and say, "Oh, that's just Karl being Karl."
Towns has made the All-Star team six times in his 11 year NBA career, including each of his three seasons with the Knicks, and he has been selected to the All-NBA Third Team three times, most recently in 2024-25. He has finished second in the league in rebounding each of the past two seasons, and he also has the 19th best career three point field goal percentage (.397) among active players. Towns is capable of using his three point shooting to draw Wembanyama away from the paint, but he is also capable of battling him for rebounds and posting him up. The Knicks will likely use several different players to guard Wembanyama, but Towns' effectiveness at both ends of the court--and whether he avoids committing silly fouls--will be a key factor in this series.
Regular season head to head matchups between teams often do not mean much by the playoffs because so much can change in even just a few months. The Knicks beat the Spurs 124-113 in the NBA Cup Championship Game on December 16, 2025 at a neutral site (Las Vegas), but at that time Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in just his second game back after missing 12 games due to injury. The NBA does not count the NBA Cup Championship Game in the regular season standings, and that game likely did not provide much evidence regarding what will happen in the NBA Finals--but it is worth noting that the Knicks won by dominating the rebounding battle 59-42 with four players each grabbing more rebounds than any Spur: Robinson (15 rebounds), Towns (11), Anunoby (nine), and Hart (eight). The Spurs edged the Knicks 134-132 at San Antonio on December 31, 2025; this time, the Spurs outrebounded the Knicks 48-40. In the third and final meeting between the teams on March 1, 2026, the Knicks routed the Spurs 114-89 at Madison Square Garden, outrebounding the Spurs 54-41.
The Knicks' 2026 playoff run so far is unprecedented, but the Spurs' showed the best version of themselves at both ends of the court while eliminating a powerful (albeit shorthanded) Thunder team. I predict that San Antonio will win in six games.
Labels: Devin Vassell, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 9:13 AM
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