20 Second Timeout

Notes and Thoughts About the Second Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Sunday featured the second quadrupleheader of the the 2025 NBA playoffs. My notes about the first quadrupleheader can be found here. 

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Game One: Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Memphis Grizzlies 80

Wait, the Thunder just had another fast break dunk...and another three pointer in transition. This game was the NBA version of "That escalated quickly." Memphis took a 4-0 lead, but the Thunder deluge soon hit: Oklahoma City led 33-20 at the end of the first quarter, and then knocked out the Grizzlies with a 20-0 run in a little over four minutes during the second quarter to push the lead to 55-22. By that point, the only questions were how big the final margin would be and how few points the Grizzlies would score.

The Grizzlies' lowest point total during the regular season was 99, and they would have needed a full extra quarter to reach that number versus the Thunder in game one. The 51 point gap is the fifth largest victory margin in NBA playoff history, and the largest game one win in NBA playoff history. An interesting footnote is that none of the four teams with larger single game playoff victory margins--the 2009 Nuggets (58), the 1956 Lakers (58), the 1973 Lakers (56), and the 2015 Bulls (54)--won an NBA title that season.

Most of the numbers from this game are ridiculously lopsided, but particularly noteworthy are the Thunder's 27-5 advantage in fast break points and the Thunder's 17-6 lead in three point field goals made. Every Thunder starter scored in double figures, and reserve Aaron Wiggins had a team-high 21 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA scoring champion, only played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Ja Morant and Marvin Bagley III were the only Grizzlies who scored in double figures (17 points each).

While it is true that the Grizzlies have a good record for an eighth seed (48-34), the Thunder defeated the Grizzlies 4-0 in the regular season, with victory margins of 24, 13, 17, and 21. Therefore, a Thunder blowout win in game one is not surprising. 

This is a good time to remember a classic quote from Danny Ainge during his playing career; after a blowout, Ainge correctly noted that the NBA is not the Tour de France: in the NBA, the next game starts 0-0, not with one team leading by the victory margin from the previous game. The Thunder are the much superior team, but one blowout does not mean that the next game will be a blowout or even that the series will be a sweep, although I picked the Thunder to sweep the Grizzlies.

Game Two: Boston Celtics 103, Orlando Magic 86

The Magic led 49-48 at halftime. Their bump and run perimeter defense frustrated and limited Boston's potent offense, but the Magic did not sustain the energy necessary to play that level of defense for a full 48 minutes. A bigger issue for the Magic is that their anemic offense could not generate enough points to remain competitive even though their defense held the Celtics to 13 points below their regular season scoring average. The gritty Magic will fight hard during this series and may even grind out one win, but their team is too limited to beat the Celtics four times in seven games

The Celtics won despite getting pedestrian scoring from their two best players. Jayson Tatum finished with just 17 points on 8-22 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds plus four assists. Jaylen Brown added 16 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Derrick White more than picked up the slack with a team-high 30 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from beyond the arc. Payton Pritchard contributed 19 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in 25 minutes off of the bench.

Paolo Banchero scored a game-high 36 points on 14-27 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for four assists, but Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-24 field goal shooting) was the only other Orlando player who scored more than seven points. The Magic committed 15 turnovers and shot just 34-81 (.420) from the field. To have any chance, the Magic need to protect the ball better, and they need to push the pace in transition after defensive stops to take some pressure off of their limited half court offense.

Game Three: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Miami Heat 100

The Cavaliers led 31-24 after the first 12 minutes, and--much like Orlando versus Boston--the Heat don't have enough offensive firepower to be competitive in this matchup. The Cavaliers were ahead 62-54 at halftime, and after the Heat played the Cavaliers even in the third quarter (25-25) the Cavaliers pulled away by winning the fourth quarter, 34-21. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome was Cleveland's fourth quarter star, pouring in 16 points on 6-7 field goal shooting. He finished the game with 28 points, just two short of Donovan Mitchell's game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Mitchell tied Michael Jordan's NBA record by scoring at least 30 points in game one for the seventh consecutive series (Jordan had two separate such streaks of seven series). Mitchell's fellow All-Star backcourt partner Darius Garland added 27 points on 10-17 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high five assists. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 24 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high nine rebounds. Tyler Herro scored 21 points on 7-18 field goal shooting.

The Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat 42-38, with Jarrett Allen (11 rebounds) leading the way. The Cavaliers were much more efficient offensively, shooting 45-88 (.511) from the field and committing just seven turnovers while the Heat shot 39-80 (.488) from the field and committed 14 turnovers. The Cavaliers narrowly won points in the paint (48-44) but shot 18-43 (.419) from three point range while holding the Heat to 13-31 (.419) shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat did not shoot terribly, but the Cavaliers took advantage of their "extra" possessions.

The Heat have more playoff experience--including several players who have played in the NBA Finals and one player who has won a championship (Andrew Wiggins)--but the Cavaliers have too much depth, size, and talent.

Game Four: Golden State Warriors 95, Houston Rockets 85

This game was the nightmare scenario for the Rockets in this matchup: despite holding the Warriors to 95 points (nearly 19 points below their season average) on .474 field goal shooting, they just could not generate enough offense to win. The death knell for the Rockets was when they scored 13 second quarter points on 6-18 (.333) field goal shooting; the Rockets outscored the Warriors by six points in the other three quarters but just could not overcome falling behind by as many as 23 points. The Rockets got to within three points in the fourth quarter but, as is often the case, the team that spends most of the game coming back does not have enough juice to close out the game.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, including 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the decisive second quarter. Jimmy Butler had an excellent all-around game with 25 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists. Brandin Podziemski chipped in 14 points and five assists. Draymond Green had his customary triple single (four points, six rebounds, three assists) as the best player on the injury-riddled 2019-20 Warriors team that went 15-50 continues to ride the coattails of his star teammates; yes, Green plays good defense and sets good screens, but let's not get twisted the difference between being two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant or 2022 NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry or two-time best player on an NBA Finals team Jimmy Butler with being a valuable supporting cast member. Green is not a dominant rebounder and one on one defender like Dennis Rodman, nor is he a defensive stopper like Michael Cooper: he is a very good complementary player around star players, but if he played for a team other than the Warriors no one would know anything about him other than he has a bad temper and a big mouth.

Alperun Sengun led the Rockets with 26 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, but he needs a lot more help from Houston's version of the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight": Dillon Brooks (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting), Fred VanVleet (10 points on 4-15 field goal shooting), and Jalen Green (seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting) had "He with us" shooting performances, to borrow a Jalen Rose line (meaning that every time they shot and missed, the Warriors probably felt like saying, "He with us" because their poor shooting made them honorary Warriors).

The main bright spot for the Rockets is that they bludgeoned the Warriors on the glass, 52-36. Steven Adams had a game-high 12 rebounds in just 19 minutes, and he was the only Rocket with a positive plus/minus number (+4). The rebounding advantage is sustainable, so if the Rockets cut down on their turnovers (they had 16, compared to just 11 by the Warriors) and figure out how to make enough shots to score more than 100 points then they can still win this series.

Another factor to keep in mind is that Golden State's two best players are 37 years old (Curry) and 35 years old (Butler). Curry had a tendency to wear down during physical playoff series even when he was younger, and Butler is injury-prone, so if the Rockets keep up their physical play then that could pay dividends in a long series.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 PM

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