20 Second Timeout

Donovan Mitchell Dominates as Cavaliers Rout Pistons to Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 26 points, dished for a game-high eight assists, grabbed six rebounds, and did not commit a turnover while leading the Cleveland Cavaliers to a 125-94 rout of the Detroit Pistons in Detroit in game seven of the second round. Three other Cavaliers scored at least 20 points each: Jarrett Allen had 23 points and seven rebounds after posting 22 points and 19 rebounds in Cleveland's game seven win versus Toronto in the first round, Sam Merrill added 23 points off of the bench while shooting 5-8 from three point range, and Evan Mobley contributed 21 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and six assists. 

The Cavaliers shot 43-85 from the field (.506) while holding the Pistons to 30-85 field goal shooting (.353), and the Cavaliers dominated the Pistons in points in the paint (58-34) and rebounding (50-41). The Cavaliers will travel to New York for the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, with game one tipping off on Tuesday night.  

The Pistons led 3-2 at the 11:14 mark of the first quarter, and then it was all downhill for the home team after that moment. The Cavaliers outscored the Pistons 31-22 in the first quarter, capped off by Mitchell banking in a buzzer beating 38 foot three pointer. The Cavaliers extended the lead to 20 points in the second quarter, enjoyed a 64-47 halftime advantage, and led by double figures the rest of the way, pushing the margin as high as 35 points in the second half. Allen and Merrill paced the Cavaliers with 15 first half points each before Mitchell put the game out of reach by exploding for 15 third quarter points.

After winning just 14 games in 2023-24, the Pistons climbed to 44 wins last season, and then had an East-leading 60 wins this season, establishing themselves as an elite defensive team that relied heavily on Cade Cunningham to score (23.9 ppg in the regular season, 28.1 ppg during the playoffs) and to create scoring opportunities for his teammates (9.9 apg in the regular season, 7.5 apg during the playoffs). In game seven, the Pistons' vaunted defense collapsed under the pressure of Mitchell's drives, Merrill's three point shooting, and dives to the hoop by Allen and Mobley. Cunningham authored the lowest scoring game of his brief playoff career (13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting), tying Duncan Robinson for second on the team behind Daniss Jenkins' 17 points. Cunningham was leading the playoffs in scoring (29.3 ppg) before disappearing in game seven (last night's performance dropped him to second place behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but he also committed a league-worst 79  turnovers in 14 playoff games (5.6 tpg). For the Pistons to make deeper playoff runs, Cunningham must be more efficient offensively but he also needs more help. Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection this season, but he was a non-factor during most of this series, and he mustered just seven points along with nine rebounds in game seven after averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg during the regular season. Duren averaged 10.2 ppg and 8.5 rpg in the playoffs.

You may have noticed a very prominent name that is missing so far in this game recap--and that name is missing because he was missing in action during game seven: James Harden lived up to his deserved reputation for disappearing when his team faces elimination, scoring just nine points on 2-10 field goal shooting. After the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for James Harden, I predicted, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" The Cavaliers have not been eliminated from the 2026 playoffs, but they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals despite Harden, not because of him, and in this game seven James Harden disappeared and James Harden scored just three second half points on 1-6 field goal shooting. If Harden had not been carried by Mitchell, Allen, Mobley, and Merrill then this would have been yet another winnable elimination game that Harden's team lost because Harden's performance fell well short of reasonable expectations. Channeling the late Denny Green, Harden is who I thought he was, but the Pistons let him (and the Cavaliers) off the hook. The best thing that can be said about Harden's game seven performance is that he only had one turnover, but the main reason for that is that the Cavaliers wisely took the ball out of his hands and put the ball into Mitchell's more capable hands. 

It is surprising that neither the Amazon Prime crew nor ESPN's SportsCenter anchors even mentioned in passing that Harden--selected as a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team and acquired by the Cavaliers because he was expected to help the team advance past the second round en route to winning the NBA title--played so poorly in the Cavaliers' most important game of the season thus far. Would Kobe Bryant or Russell Westbrook have escaped condemnation for a 2-10 game seven shooting performance if their teams had won despite them and not because of them? The answer to that rhetorical question is obvious, and speaks volumes about the narratives that dominate media-driven conversations not just about sports but about many topics.

After Harden fled Oklahoma City in 2012 because he did not want to be the Thunder's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, I declared, "Harden is a very good player but all of his weaknesses will be exposed in Houston if the Rockets expect him to be a franchise player. Harden is not an All-NBA First or Second Team caliber player. He is not someone who can draw double teams over the course of an 82 game season and then carry a team deep into the playoffs as the number one option. He is not Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James." Although Harden subsequently accumulated a bunch of regular season honors--including multiple All-NBA selections and even one regular season MVP--my assessment of his inability to lead a team to a championship as the number one option proved to be right on target, and his performances during the 2026 playoffs emphasize that point: the Cavaliers survived game seven versus the Toronto Raptors in the first round even though Harden managed just 18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, and then they routed the Pistons in this game seven despite Harden not making a meaningful contribution. You might think, "Who cares as long as the team is winning?"--but the potential problem for the Cavaliers if they don't win two more playoff series this year is that they gave up young All-Star Darius Garland to overpay old All-Star Harden, so if this all-in move does not result in winning a title then the Cavaliers lack the financial flexibility needed to improve the roster. The Cavaliers had the league's highest payroll in 2025-26, topping the Knicks by nearly $6 million. 

Harden's resume in elimination games since leaving Oklahoma City includes a 5-13 team record, 21.4 ppg on .385 field goal shooting, and 4.67 tpg. Two of those five wins are with this year's Cavaliers, and Harden's numbers in those two wins are 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) with three turnovers. Harden has become less of a turnover machine in elimination games since 2022, but that can be attributed to him not handling the ball as much in those games.

Don't fall for the hype that Harden used to be a great playoff performer but now his numbers are going down because he is getting older. Harden averaged 29.2 ppg and a league-leading/career-high 11.2 apg in the 2016-17 regular season, but he had just 10 points on 2-11 field goal shooting with six turnovers as his Houston Rockets lost to the San Antonio Spurs 114-75 in game six of the second round. Recently, Sirius XM NBA Radio host Amin Elhassan--who loves to take potshots at all-time greats Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook--defended Harden's playoff career by asserting that Harden is never given credit for having notched 11 40-point games in the postseason. That comment misses the larger point: no one is suggesting that Harden is incapable of playing well in the playoffs or that he has never played well in some playoff games; the problem--irrefutably shown by the numbers cited above--is that when Harden's team needs him most he often disappears and his team loses the vast majority of those games. The fact that two of Harden's five career elimination game wins happened this season with Harden in a secondary (or lower) role behind Mitchell just reinforces the main point that I have been hammering home about Harden for 14 years: Harden is a talented player whose game and mentality are not well-suited for being the number one option on a championship contending team.

Despite Harden disappearing in game seven, the Cavaliers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018, which was LeBron James' last season with the team. This is a significant accomplishment for Mitchell--who has made the playoffs in each of his nine NBA seasons but had never advanced past the second round until now--and for the big man tandem of Mobley (2025 All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year) and Allen (2022 All-Star) as the franchise tries to move out from James' shadow.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 8:45 AM

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Thoughts About the Second Round: "Playoff Harden," Red Hot Knicks, Redick's Rhetoric, and San Antonio's Youth Versus Minnesota's Experience

The James Harden playoff era with the Cleveland Cavaliers began 2-0 but has taken a predictably downhill trajectory after that auspicious start: Harden amassed 38 turnovers and 35 field goals made in his next seven playoff game while shooting .385 from the field, and the Cavaliers are 2-5 in those games. In his last four playoff games, Harden has shot 17-51 (.333) from the field while committing 17 turnovers, and the Cavaliers are 1-3 in those games, with the one win happening mainly because Jarrett Allen had a double double in the third quarter versus a shorthanded Toronto team. 

The Detroit Pistons lead the Cavaliers 2-0 in their second round series after opening game two with a 14-5 run before winning, 107-97. The second game looked much like the first game, a 111-101 Pistons victory. Harden had 22 points on 6-15 field goal shooting with seven assists and seven turnovers in the first game before fully activating "Playoff Harden" mode in game two: 10 points on 3-13 field goal shooting, three assists, and four turnovers--a "concert tour" field goal percentage combined with his trademark "Harden" (a game in which a player--usually Harden, hence the name--has more turnovers than field goals made).

It is baffling that the Cavaliers' front office believed that Harden would be the missing piece for a championship run, and it is bizarre to hear his coach and teammates publicly praise his basketball IQ, his playoff experience, and his leadership. High basketball IQ players do not consistently have more turnovers than field goals made in the most important games, experience means nothing if the experience consists of choking while losing, and leadership is supposed to mean helping a group or a team complete a mission, not being a major reason that a group or a team fails to complete a mission.

I am trying to picture how Harden exercises leadership by sharing his high basketball IQ playoff experiences in the Cavaliers' locker room: does he wax poetic about when he had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in last year's 120-101 elimination game loss to the Denver Nuggets, or does he speak in general about shooting .399 from the field while averaging 5.9 tpg as his teams went 2-9 in his first 11 elimination games after he fled Oklahoma City? 

When it matters most, you can count on Harden to consistently do four things: 1) shoot less often than usual (which throws off the rhythm of his team), 2) shoot a lousy percentage from the field, 3) turn the ball over at a high rate, and 4) be slow to get back on defense after turning the ball over.  

Harden's awful play should not completely distract from how the Pistons are manhandling 2025 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, who had one more rebound than a dead man in game two. The Cavaliers are a low energy team, and it is safe to say that Harden's careless, desultory play is not energizing any of his teammates. A great player cannot control how his teammates play, but a great player typically has an impact that makes his team better, particularly in the games that matter most. Harden is labeled as a great player, but his impact on team success does not match that label.

The series shifts to Cleveland for the next two games. It took the Pistons seven games to eliminate the Orlando Magic in the first round, so it would not be surprising if the Cavaliers win a game or even two at home, but it will be very surprising if the Cavaliers win four of the next five games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" That article is in draft mode now, and I expect to post it sooner rather than later.

In the Eastern Conference's other second round series, the New York Knicks are on an impressive run since falling behind 2-1 to the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. The Knicks lead the Philadelphia 76ers 2-0 after humiliating the 76ers 137-98 in the series opener before surviving game two, 108-102. After seeing the Knicks drive by Joel Embiid as if he were a traffic cone in game one, the Boston Celtics should be sick to their stomachs about jacking up 49 three pointers in their 109-100 game seven loss to the 76ers; if they had attacked Embiid to wear him out and get him in foul trouble then it is likely that they would have earned the right to battle the Knicks in the second round. Embiid missed game two versus the Knicks due to ankle and hip injuries, and he is listed as questionable for game three. He is still a force in the paint offensively when he wants to be, but sliding his feet on defense--or even staying upright--has been challenging for him. Embiid exploited the Celtics' inexperienced centers, but the Knicks have the size and strength to battle with him, so in some ways that 76ers look better without him--at least in this particular matchup.

Turning our attention to the Western Conference, J.J. Redick's postgame press conferences after losses are fascinating. According to Redick, his team's losses can primarily be attributed to not following the game plan. Put another way, if only his players were smart enough and disciplined enough to execute his brilliant game plans then the L.A. Lakers would never lose. When asked about specific things he could tell his players, Redick consistently says "I have already conveyed that message to them" or words to that effect. In other words, "I told them everything that they need to know to be successful, so if they fail then that is their fault, not mine."

As a player, Redick never won a championship in college or in the NBA. It is interesting to listen to press conferences of championship coaches on the rare occasions when their teams lose; they tend to give credit to the opposing team, and they tend to accept blame for things that they could have done better. Bill Belichick has won more Super Bowls than any coach--and his Super Bowl-winning defensive game plan from Super Bowl XXV when he was the New York Giants' defensive coordinator is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame--but when his teams lost he would often say that he has to coach better and the players have to play better. When was the last time that Redick admitted that he needs to coach better? 

Last year, Redick's Lakers lost 4-1 in the first round to the Minnesota Timberwolves, after which I discussed the biggest mismatch in the series: 

The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.

The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.

Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.

This year, the shorthanded Lakers beat the shorthanded, dysfunctional Houston Rockets 4-2 in the first round to give Redick his first playoff series win as a coach, but now they are halfway toward being swept in the second round. The Thunder are without the services of their second best player, Jalen Williams (grade 1 left hamstring strain), but they posted the NBA's best regular season despite him missing most of the season, and it is evident that they don't need him to beat the Lakers, who are missing their best player as Luka Doncic recovers from a left hamstring injury. The Thunder keep rolling along because they minimize distractions/drama while collectively playing hard and smart at both ends of the court. 

After the Thunder dispatch the Lakers, they will face the winner of the San Antonio-Minnesota series. The Minnesota Timberwolves may be the NBA's version of Rasputin--any time you count them out, they rise to the occasion. Maybe we should not be surprised that a team that has reached the Western Conference Finals each of the past two years is resilient and tough. The Thunder lost Donte DiVincenzo to a season-ending torn right Achilles, Ayo Dosunmu is out with calf and heel injuries, and Anthony Edwards is hobbling around with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise, but the Timberwolves took out the Denver Nuggets in six games in the first round before beating the Spurs 104-102 in game one to steal homecourt advantage. The Spurs bounced back to win game two 133-95 but now must play the next two games in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are a veteran team with a lot of positive recent playoff experience, while the Spurs' key rotation players have very little playoff experience. The Spurs need to get a split on the road to regain homecourt advantage, and two wins would put them in the driver's seat heading back home for game five. Game three will tell us a lot about how long this series will last, because this is the Spurs' first real postseason challenge after winning 4-1 in the first round versus the outmatched Portland Trail Blazers. I picked the Spurs to beat the Timberwolves in six games, and if the teams split the next two games then we are probably on track for that result, because I expect the shorthanded Timberwolves to wear down as this series progresses.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, J.J. Redick, James Harden, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 9:31 AM

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Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Cleveland can win if…Donovan Mitchell and James Harden form a reliable 1-2 scoring punch while Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen dominate in the paint. The Cavaliers, who have looked soft at times this season, must meet force with force at both ends of the court.

Mitchell led the Cavaliers in scoring during the regular season (27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .483/.364/.865) and he led the Cavaliers in scoring during their 4-3 first round win over the Toronto Raptors (23.1 ppg with shooting splits of .438/.333/.875). The obvious differences are that both his scoring and his field goal shooting dropped precipitously from the regular season to the playoffs. His regular season scoring and field goal percentage both were just below his career high numbers (28.3 ppg and .484 field goal shooting in 2022-23), but his playoff scoring is on pace to be the second-worst of his nine postseason appearances. After scoring 32 points and 30 points as the Cavaliers won the first two games of the series, Mitchell scored 24 points or less in each of the next five games. Mitchell's playoff career has been filled with highs--including leading the league in playoff scoring in 2020 (36.3 ppg on .529 field goal shooting)--and lows, but his teams are 0-4 in second round series, which dulls the shine of his 27.8 ppg career playoff scoring average (seventh best all-time).

Harden averaged 20.6 ppg and a team-high 6.1 apg versus the Raptors, numbers that are in line with his regular season numbers in the 26 games he played with the Cavaliers (20.5 ppg, 7.7 apg)--but Harden's turnovers jumped from 3.2 tpg in the regular season with Cleveland to 5.1 tpg versus the Raptors. His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume prior to 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.

After the Cavaliers acquired Harden in exchange for Darius Garland, I declared, "I can write the template for the Cavaliers' 2026 elimination game loss now, and after the game I can fill in the blanks around the words 'James Harden disappeared' and 'James Harden scored just xxx second half points.'" Nothing that I saw in the Toronto series made me alter the article template that I prepared for Cleveland's elimination game loss.

The Evan Mobley-Tim Duncan comparisons are delusional, but when Mobley is at his best he is one of the top big men in the league. He ranked third on the team in scoring versus Toronto (18.1 ppg) while leading the team in rebounding (8.6 rpg). Mobley is a very good player, but he is not a dominant player in the way that Duncan controlled the action at both ends of the court.

Charles Barkley often says that Jarrett Allen seems too nice, and the first six games of the Toronto series validated that observation, but Allen showed a little nastiness just in time to save the Cavaliers in game seven with a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots. Allen had a double double in the third quarter alone (14 points, 11 rebounds) as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 38-19. Allen's dominating performance saved the day, and let Harden off the hook despite his typically erratic elimination game field goal shooting.

Detroit will win because...the Pistons are more physical than the Cavaliers and because Cade Cunningham is the best player on either team.

Cavaliers versus Pistons is the NBA's version of a "run and shoot" NFL offense versus a team that plays "ground and pound" offense while knocking you around on defense. During the regular season, the Pistons ranked 28th in three point field goals made but they finished third in field goal percentage, third in points allowed, and third in defensive field goal percentage; during the playoffs, the Pistons rank 16th (last) in three point field goals made per game, but first in points allowed and first in defensive field goal percentage. Granted, the Pistons' playoff defensive numbers are boosted by playing the Orlando Magic, who just fired coach Jamahl Mosley in no small part because of the Magic's historically inept offense, but the Pistons will pose far more challenges for the Cavaliers than the Raptors did.

Cunningham seems poised to be an MVP candidate and All-NBA Team member for years to come after averaging 23.9 ppg and 9.9 apg (second in the league) during the regular season before averaging 32.4 ppg and 7.1 apg as the Pistons defeated the Magic, 4-3. He is taller, bigger, and younger than Mitchell and Harden, and--unlike the Cavaliers' guards--he consistently plays hard on defense in addition to running the Pistons' offense.

Jalen Duren disappeared at times versus Orlando, but he came up big in Detroit's 116-04 game seven win (15 points, game-high 15 rebounds), and he averaged a team-high 9.4 rpg during the series. He is an efficient scorer (.528 field goal percentage versus the Magic) who understands his limitations (he did not attempt a three pointer in the first round). The Pistons need him to be productive versus Mobley and Allen.

Tobias Harris has made a career out of being the third option but in the first round he averaged 21.6 ppg, trailing only Cunningham. He erupted for 30 points in game seven.

Ausar Thompson provides defense, rebounding (8.7 rpg versus the Magic) and efficient scoring (8.1 ppg on .510 field goal shooting versus the Magic), while Duncan Robinson is a three point sniper whose defense is much improved. 

Other things to consider: The Cavaliers fired J.B. Bickerstaff in 2024 after he led the team to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. His replacement Kenny Atkinson won the 2025 NBA Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to the Eastern Conference's best record (64-18) but the Cavaliers again lost in the second round. Meanwhile, after the Pistons hired Bickerstaff in 2024 their win total jumped from 14 to 44, and Bickerstaff finished second to Atkinson in the Coach of the Year voting. This season, the Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record while the Cavaliers regressed to the fourth seed. This playoff series cannot provide a definitive verdict on Cleveland's decision to replace Bickerstaff with Atkinson, but the overall trendline of the past two seasons seems to favor Detroit over Cleveland.

Speaking of coaching, it must be mentioned that both teams were pushed to seven games by lower seeded first round opponents.

Cunningham is the seventh player to have at least 30 points (team-high 32) and at least 10 assists (game-high 12) in a game seven as he led the Pistons to a comeback from a 3-1 deficit versus the eighth seeded Magic. It is not surprising that the Pistons won the series, but it is baffling that the offensively challenged Magic--who scored less than 100 points in four of the seven games--beat the Pistons three times. 

The Cavaliers jumped out to a 2-0 series lead but then struggled to close out the undermanned Raptors, who finished the series without the services of leading regular season scorer Brandon Ingram (left heel injury suffered in game five) and starting point guard Immanuel Quickley (who missed the entire series with a right hamstring strain). In game seven, the Cavaliers trailed 47-38 with 2:58 remaining in the first half before tying the score at 49-49 by halftime. The Cavaliers opened the third quarter with a 9-0 run, and they maintained a double digit lead for the final 16:53 of the game thanks to strong second half performances by Allen (16 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, 14 rebounds) and Mitchell (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) to overcome a typical Harden disappearing act in the second half of an elimination game (eight points on 1-4 field goal shooting). 

Before beating the Magic, the Pistons had not won a playoff series since 2008, while the Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. Playoff experience matters, but when neither team has meaningful collective playoff experience other important factors have added weight. Such factors include which team has the best player, which team is more physical, which team plays better defense, and which team has homecourt advantage. The Pistons have the advantage in all of those categories.

Detroit will defeat Cleveland in six games.

Labels: Cade Cunningham, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Durden, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Tobias Harris

posted by David Friedman @ 2:10 PM

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Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs

The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series. 

Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series. 

The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.

Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.

In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.

Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.

Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly. 

The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures. 

Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.

In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.

The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.

Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead. 

This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.

The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM

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2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.

Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.

After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time). 

The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player. 

The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series. 

Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season): 

There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%. 

The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.

Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.

This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).

Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama. 

It is unfortunate that media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.

There has been a lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses. 

The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.

This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.

Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.

I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.

Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.

Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates. 

Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.

A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?

Here are my first round predictions:

Read more »

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview

Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.

With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title. 

Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.

Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run. 

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98). 

There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level. 

The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen). 

However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.

The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.

The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.

3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams. 

The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.  

The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.

4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine (eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617 last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last season, .284 for his career).

The Bucks added Myles Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard, who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more than they lost with these roster moves.

In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.

Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding. 

Bobby Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024. 

Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.

5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68 to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.

Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.

Despite their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation, acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.

Beasley played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field. Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point field goals made (168). 

LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.

Despite the personnel losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last season.

6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.

That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.

7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.

The Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to how far a team can advance just with great coaching. 

The Heat have a solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.

The Heat will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round. 

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.

Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance defensively.

Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games. 

A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.

The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth. 

I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM

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Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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