Dallas Versus Oklahoma City Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (57-25) vs. #5 Dallas (50-32)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-1
Oklahoma City can win if…Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the series, and his young supporting cast steps up in way not usually done by young supporting casts. Gilgeous-Alexander made the All-NBA First Team for the first time last season while also finishing fifth in MVP voting, and it has already been announced that he finished no worse than third in 2024 regular season MVP voting. He averaged at least 30 ppg (30.1 ppg) for the second season in a row while posting career-highs in assists (6.2 apg), steals (2.0 spg), and field goal percentage (.535). Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the poised leader of a very young but very dangerous team. He averaged 27.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 5.0 apg as the Thunder swept the New Orleans Pelicans 4-0 in the first round.
Jalen Williams averaged 21.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg versus the Pelicans while posting better shooting splits across the board than Gilgeous-Alexander (.529/.389/.750 compared to .476/.294/.727), and he is a lock to be a future All-Star after averaging 19.1 ppg, 4.5 apg, and 4.0 rpg as a 22 year old in just his second regular season.
Rookie Chet Holmgren is not dominant in any statistical category other than blocked shots (2.3 bpg during the regular season to rank fifth in the league; 2.8 bpg versus the Pelicans), but he fills up the boxscore across the board and also looks like a future All-Star.
Third year swingman Josh Giddey also fills up the boxscore in several categories without being dominant in one particular category.
Lu Dort is built like a tank, and he is a tenacious defensive player who is also a solid double figure scorer.
The Thunder's biggest weakness--no pun intended--is a lack of size, which is reflected in their low regular season rebounding ranking (27th). They are athletic and energetic, but if you can keep up with them then you can grind them down.
Dallas will win because...the Mavericks not only have the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving dynamic duo, but midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington provide size and defense. Doncic struggled with his field goal shooting (.405) and three point shooting (.239) as the Mavericks bounced the L.A. Clippers in six games, but he still nearly averaged a triple double (29.8 ppg, 9.5 apg, 8.8 rpg) while posing questions for which the Clippers had no answers. The Clippers hunted Doncic on defense, but in the end Doncic and Dallas hunted the Clippers more successfully. Contrary to an increasingly prevailing narrative, Irving's splendid play does not wipe out or excuse his unrepentant antisemitism, but in this article we will focus on how well he is playing. Irving torched the Clippers with shooting splits of .514/.449/.852 while averaging 26.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, and 4.7 apg. When Doncic hit some rough patches with his shooting, Irving more than picked up the slack. Irving scored a game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting in game six to finish off the Clippers, and he had a scintillating 40 point performance on 14-25 field goal shooting in a 116-111 game four loss.
Dallas will miss Maxi Kleber--who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury--but the Mavericks have enough size and depth to overpower the Thunder even without him.
Other things to consider: I picked the Mavericks to finish eighth in the West because the Doncic-Irving pairing looked clunky last season and because the Mavericks lacked size and defensive presence--but this season Doncic and Irving have played well together, and the midseason acquisitions described above fortified the Mavericks in the paint at both ends of the court.
I adjusted my take on the Mavericks accordingly, and picked them to beat the L.A. Clippers in the first round. In that same playoff preview article, I anticipated that this Dallas-Oklahoma City matchup would occur, and I predicted that Dallas would prevail in six tough games. I see no reason to change that prediction now (my initial Denver-Minnesota prediction before the playoffs began was Denver in five, but in my Denver-Minnesota series preview I went with Denver in six and even that revision may not have given enough credit to Minnesota's size, depth, and physicality).
Dallas will defeat Oklahoma City in six games.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Williams, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 PM
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