Denver Versus Minnesota Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Denver (57-25) vs. #3 Minnesota (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Minnesota can win if…big men Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns dominate the paint while Anthony Edwards rules the perimeter. During the regular season, Minnesota led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.450) and points allowed (106.5 ppg), marked improvements over their rankings in those categories (11th and 18th respectively) in the previous season. This season the Timberwolves also ranked fifth in steals and sixth in blocked shots.
No one should be surprised that Minnesota outscored Phoenix 118.3 ppg to 103.3 ppg in a 4-0 first round sweep. Gobert and Towns are imposing twin towers at both ends of the court, and Edwards has developed into an elite two way player, setting career-highs in regular season scoring (25.9 ppg) and assists (5.1 apg) before averaging 31.0 ppg and 6.3 apg versus Phoenix in the first round. Edwards was clearly the most dominant player in a series that included Suns' future Hall of Famers Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (and it would not be shocking if Bradley Beal also is inducted in the Hall of Fame).
The biggest move--literally and figuratively--made by Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly was trading for Gobert, a transaction that was derided by "stat gurus" who have unbounded faith in "small ball" and jacking up high variance three pointers. Connelly understands that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. The Timberwolves ranked just 23rd in the league in three point field goal attempts, so their successful season featuring big players who do not shoot many three pointers must be very puzzling to "stat gurus."
Connelly accomplished addition by subtraction last season when he shipped out D'Angelo Russell in exchange for Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker; just getting rid of Russell represented a roster upgrade, but Connelly traded him for two significant rotation players. Conley is a heady leader, great teammate, and still a productive player (11.4 ppg, team-high 5.9 apg this season), while Alexander Walker played all 82 games this season, thriving as a reserve who also started 20 games.
In marked contrast, Russell is a perennial playoff underperformer who shot .426 from the field in the 2023 playoffs, vowed to do better in 2024--and then shot .388 from the field as the Nuggets dispatched Russell's Lakers in five games.
Prior to this season, I was skeptical of the Timberwolves not because of their size and their lack of three point shooting but because of their track record of low-IQ play in crucial situations. Conley, in his first full season with the team, helped a lot in terms of settling the team down and accelerating the maturation process for the team's young players. Edwards' emergence as an MVP-caliber player was also very important.
Coach Chris Finch did a great job providing structure, but it remains to be seen to what extent he will be on the sidelines during this series after tearing his patellar tendon in a freak sideline collision near the end of Minnesota's first round sweep.
Denver will win because…Nikola Jokic is putting up scoring/rebounding/passing/field goal percentage numbers reminiscent of prime Wilt Chamberlain:
Chamberlain, 1967 playoffs: 29.1 ppg, 21.7 rpg, 9.0 apg, .579 FG%
Jokic, 2024 playoffs: 28.2 ppg, 16.2 rpg, 9.8 apg, .591 FG%
Jokic's numbers are not small sample size theater, either: last season, he averaged 30.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 9.5 apg, and .548 FG% in 20 playoff games during Denver's 16-4 championship run, culminating in 30.2 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 7.2 apg, and .583 FG% as the Nuggets cooled off the Miami Heat 4-1 in the NBA Finals. Jokic's statistical profile is similar to prime Chamberlain, but Jokic's game is a hybrid of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, combining Bird's three point shooting, deft passing, and hard-nosed rebounding with McHale's footwork in the post.
Jamal Murray did not shoot well from the field overall (.400) during the Nuggets' 4-1 first round win versus the L.A. Lakers, but he drilled the game-winning shots in game two and in game five en route to averaging 23.6 ppg, second on the team to Jokic. Murray also ranked second in assists (7.2 apg) behind Jokic. Murray has yet to be selected as an All-Star but he has outplayed many All-Stars in his playoff career.
Side note: this is the first playoff series that I can remember during which so much noise was made about (1) which team led at halftime and (2) which team led for the most minutes. The only goal in a playoff series is to be the first team to win four games--and the Nuggets needed just five games to accomplish that versus the Lakers, after sweeping the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. Yet, it seems like many commentators are trying to give LeBron James some kind of award for lifting his team to halftime leads and for having the lead for more minutes than the Nuggets did. By that standard, auto racing records should be rewritten, with championships and trophies being awarded to the drivers who most often had the lead at the halfway point of races and who led the most total laps.
The relevant story in the Denver-L.A. series is that Jokic and his cohesive team outdueled LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and James' hand-picked roster that--just a year ago--James was praising to the sky after throwing first Frank Vogel and then Russell Westbrook under the bus. Listen closely, and you can hear that bus revving up now to run over Darvin Ham.
Back to the Nuggets, who did not chase stars but instead developed a well-balanced team around Jokic.
Michael Porter Jr. led the Nuggets in three point field goals made (20) in the first round while ranking third on the team in scoring (22.8 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.4 rpg). His frontcourt mate Aaron Gordon thrives in the "dunker" spot catching lobs from Jokic and Murray, but he also rebounds (9.8 rpg), defends, and even makes timely passes (4.6 apg).
What distinguishes the Nuggets from other teams--aside from Jokic's greatness--is that the Nuggets do not care who scores or who gets credit; they just want to win the game. Jokic is the leader, and he sets the tone for the team: smart, physical, professional.
Other things to consider: The Nuggets reached the 2020 Western Conference Finals, but then battled injuries during the next two seasons before winning the 2023 NBA title. Their key players--Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr.--are all in their primes, and no doubt take quiet delight in defeating various purported "super teams."
Connelly not only built Minnesota into a contender but he is largely responsible for putting together this Denver team: he drafted Jokic in the second round of the 2014 NBA Draft (41st selection overall), and he later drafted Murray and Porter Jr. before trading for Gordon. Note that both teams favor size over small ball and neither team relies on three point shooting, with the Nuggets ranking 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal attempts.
This will be a fun, competitive, old school series featuring two teams attacking the paint. The difference will be Jokic--not just his Wilt-like stats, but the way that he distorts opposing defenses that struggle to deal with his ability to both score efficiently and pass with precision.
Denver will defeat Minnesota in six games.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Michael Porter Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:10 AM
10 Comments:
First of all, this is a great high-effort writeup.
My one small nitpick is that I couldn't help opening a new tab when I saw you listed Devin Booker as a future Hall of Famer. My gut said no, and it turns out Basketball Reference has him at less than 5% at the moment.
I hope Minnesota wins, but I'll be rooting for whoever wins this series to go all the way.
Edwards was the best player in the series, but not clearly. He had marginally better stats in the Booker/KD. Swap either Booker or KD for Edwards, and Minnesota still wins easily, too.
Matt, Michael Cooper was just inducted into the HOF. Booker's career is already better than his. Booker only needs 2-3 more decent years, and he's in easily. Beal is probably close too, but not there yet. That's the issue with these 2 teams. Phoenix obviously has very little after their big 3, while Minnesota has a lot. The Suns don't have a starting PG and they can't play much defense. It looks and seems exciting to put KD with Booker, but there's a bunch of teams that have 2-3 stars playing together currently. The question is what else is there to your team.
NBA history is filled with teams that slowly improve their playoff performances before winning a championship. Often after a team wins their first championship, they either win another or at least make it to the conference or NBA finals. Milwaukee is a recent exception but look back prior to that and you will see these types of repetitive patterns.
Minnesota has an extremely talented well coached team but lack that important experience usually defined by suffering a heartbreaking loss of a close series.
Nuggets suffered their heartbreaking series defeat against the Lakers in the bubble a few years back and the core of this team now understand what it takes to win in the playoffs.
The other huge factor is Mike Malone. I believe almost every other NBA coach would call a time out when the game is tied and its down to the final possession. Malone and his players believe so much in each other that they just keep the clock moving, calmly move the ball down the floor and get the look they need to win the game without the coach stopping the game to set up a play.
Matt:
Thank you!
Booker is a four-time All-Star who has posted two 27 ppg seasons (and narrowly missed posting a third) while also leading a team to the NBA Finals. I doubt that there are many--if any--HoF eligible players who check all of those boxes and have not been inducted. Further, my assumption is that Booker will be an All-Star caliber player for at least another 6-8 years, meaning that he will add to the accomplishments and accolades listed above.
Denver is a good team, but Minnesota is exposing them right now. Gobert didn't even play game 2, and Minnesota's defense was amazing. Denver actually played good defense, too. I think the notion that defense isn't allowed or can't be played at a high level anymore is demonstrably false.
It's nice when the officials stay calm; however, they need to issue technicals when players/coaches deserve them. Malone was out of control for a lot of game 2, and he should've been given at least 1 technical if not actually ejected. That type of behavior storming onto the court charging an official cannot be allowed. Also, his lack of self control doesn't calm his players any. They were whining all game long. Overall, it was a physical game but a well-called game by the officials. Both teams got away with fouls and were called for cheap fouls as most games go. Minnesota just dominated, primarily on defense.
Jokic is averaging 24, 12, 9 but 6 TOs and 42% FG per game. Solid stats but hardly close to MVP-level stats. But his impact is even less so far than his stats suggest. He looks lost on defense. He, his team, and basically anyone else that ever wins a title seem to get a pass forever on anything else that happens in the future. I don't buy that. He won a title in a very-down year facing only mid 40-win teams in the playoffs aka cupcake central. He still has never beaten a 50-win team in the playoffs. Maybe Denver comes back vs Minnesota but that will be very hard to imagine right now.
David:
After the first two games of this series I'm wondering if what Tex Winter said about Tim Duncan may apply to Jokic: "He's fundamental to the point that he's predictable."
Can Jokic figure it out? Not that the Nuggets have to win the series necessarily. But Jokic must at least muster his forces to take the Wolves to six or seven games and make a real series out of it.
I think that the Wolves are a test as to whether or not Jokic has the X-factor that the Pantheon-level players all had. Like when Magic played center and dropped 42 to close out the Sixers back in the 80 Finals, we knew right away that he had that X-factor.
Jokic needs to let Anthony Edwards know that he's the best player on the floor. To this point, Edwards is taking the likely MVP's lunch money.
Anonymous:
A playoff series is a race to four wins, not two, so I will refrain from making broad conclusions until a team wins four games.
Rules changes, rules enforcement changes, and style of play changes have hampered defense during recent seasons, though defense tends to gain importance during the playoffs--and we are seeing that yet again so far in this year's playoffs.
Malone should have been ejected, and Murray should have been ejected for throwing the heat pack on the court.
I don't think that Jokic is getting a pass for anything. One, the series is not over yet. Two, he has been a dominant player for many years, and he dominated last year's playoffs as the Nuggets rolled to the title with a 16-4 record. They played the eighth seed in the first round last season because they earned the number one seed. Then, they played the teams that survived, and at the end of the playoff marathon they were the last team standing. I am puzzled that anyone would try to diminish what the Nuggets accomplished, regardless of what happens in the 2024 playoffs. This year's Nuggets are a different team, with less depth and (now) a hobbled Murray. There are many reasons that it is difficult to repeat, and two of those reasons are affecting the Nuggets now: losing good players who sign with other teams, and being worn down after having a long playoff run followed almost immediately by the 82 game marathon.
I don't know how this series will end, but whatever happens does not diminish what the 2023 Nuggets accomplished.
Anonymous:
I don't remember that Winter quote about Duncan, but Duncan turned out OK and he led the Spurs to five championships. I think that Jokic--or just about any player--would settle for that.
By definition, most players--including many very great players--are not Pantheon-level players. I would not base that determination on the outcome of any one playoff series.
I don't see it that much. Teams are very much more focused on maximizing points/game and almost every player can shoot 3's reasonably well now. Defenses have to cover so much more ground now than ever before.
These are the best officials in the world, but we need to see much more consistency in game but also from game to game. Denver looked like a bunch of whiny babies in game 2.
Jokic dominated a bunch of slightly better than mediocre teams last year. It's still impressive and it has nothing to do with diminishing him/them, but it should be put in proper perspective. You've often said the 2022 Warriors were quite fortunate not facing certain teams that lost in earlier rounds. How are the 2023 Nuggets any different than that? Jokic probably eventually will, but he's still never beaten a 50-win team in the playoffs. That's a bit eye opening.
Jokic and Denver this season still have plenty to work with. Minnesota is a good team, but hardly a historically great team. I guess they needed another year to mature, but also they were also missing 2 key players in last year's playoffs. Murray played great vs the Lakers. Everyone is playing poorly vs Minnesota except Holiday, so I'm much more inclined to give Minnesota credit so far than to blame anything on Murray or anyone else being injured. Denver basically played 8 guys in the playoffs last year and this year. 6 are the same. They replaced 2 bench rotation guys this year from last year. Their roster last year looks marginally better than this year, a few moving pieces, nothing huge. And Denver also won 57 games this year compared to 53 last year. They looked better in the regular season this year than last year.
Anonymous:
Players are not better offensively now than in the past. In the past, players were better schooled in fundamentals. Today's players score so much because--at least during the regular season--defenders are not allowed to touch players on the perimeter. Players are also permitted to hop, skip, and jump without dribbling to "create space." Jordan and Bryant in their respective primes are averaging over 40 ppg under today's conditions.
In general, players and teams today are not as good as players and teams from previous eras, but the teams that Jokic and the Nuggets dominated are not worse than the teams that any other recent champions beat.
I've never looked up how many 50 win teams a player has beaten in the playoffs, and I am not sure how relevant that stat is. Jokic led his team to a 16-4 playoff run culminating in a championship. If that is not impressive, then how less impressive are the highly touted players--including members of the 75th Anniversary Team--who have never accomplished that?
I am not going to overanalyze the first two games of this series. The Nuggets may get swept, they may come back to win, or they may win some games before losing the series. The larger story here is not about denigrating Jokic or the Nuggets, but about noting--as I did before the series--that both teams were built by the same president of basketball operations who valued size and defense over "pace and space," and who understood that neither tanking nor throwing together a "super team" is a recipe for success.
It is objectively correct to state that the Nuggets are banged up and that they have less quality depth than they did last season, so I am not going to debate those points.
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