Thunder Crush Nuggets 125-93, Advance to Western Conference Finals
The Denver Nuggets won game six at home to push the Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, but the Thunder dominated game seven, 125-93, to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander authored another exceptional performance, pouring in a game-high 35 points (just three short of his playoff career-high) on 12-19 field goal shooting while dishing out four assists. Jalen Williams, who struggled for significant portions of this series, scored 24 points and passed for a game-high tying seven assists. Chet Holmgren added 13 points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Alex Caruso chipped in 11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, but his game-high +40 plus/minus number hints at the large impact that he had beyond the boxscore numbers: he was a menace as an on-ball defender versus Denver's perimeter players, he swarmed the passing lanes as a help defender, and on several possessions he even guarded Nikola Jokic one on one.
Jokic had a solid game by normal human standards--20 points, nine rebounds, game-high tying seven assists--but the Thunder's suffocating defense shut down his teammates without giving him the space to do much damage as a scorer. Jokic had a game-high five turnovers, and it often looked like the
Thunder had an extra defensive player on the court; the Nuggets
struggled to complete a pass, and they shot just 33-84 (.393) from the field, including 10-45 (.222) from three point range. Christian Braun scored 19 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Aaron Gordon limped through a grade two hamstring strain--Jokic said that he told Gordon to not play because he risked making the injury even more serious--to finish with eight points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Jamal Murry had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. No other Nugget scored more than six points, and it is worth noting that Gilgeous-Alexander outscored the Nuggets' top two players--Jokic and Murray--by himself.
Russell Westbrook is the eighth highest paid Nugget ($3.3 million, the minimum salary for a 10 year veteran), but the "experts" and the
social media crowd will no doubt find some way to pin the loss on him.
I've never heard of a team's eighth highest paid player being the
deciding factor between winning and losing as the fourth seeded team versus a dominant top seeded 68 win
team, but ridiculous anti-Westbrook narratives have become standard fare
in NBA circles. For the series, Westbrook ranked fifth on the team in scoring (9.9 ppg), eighth in rebounds (2.7 rpg), sixth in minutes played (22.7 mpg), and tied for fourth in assists (2.4 apg). He has always been a rhythm player who is used to having the ball in his hands, so those numbers are in line with his role and his salary slot. His shooting splits (.348/.219/.696) were poor, but only three Nuggets who played rotation minutes shot better than .440 from the field (Nikola Jokic, Julian Strawther, Aaron Gordon) so the Thunder deserve credit for shutting down the Nuggets' offense. Westbrook averaged 11.7 ppg in the 2025 playoffs (fifth on the team) while contributing 2.6 apg (fourth), 3.7 rpg (sixth) and .9 spg (fourth) with .391/.317/.700 shooting splits. Westbrook has a player option for $3.5 million next season, and it is unlikely that the cash-strapped Nuggets can find a more productive player at that price.
The Thunder outscored the Nuggets 64-42 in the paint, 27-14 on the fast break, and 37-7 in points off of turnovers. The Nuggets jumped out to a 21-10 lead at the 5:31 mark of the first quarter before the Thunder reeled them in and then ran them into the ground; the Thunder ended the second quarter with a 28-14 run to take a 60-46 halftime lead, and the Thunder opened the third quarter by outscoring the Nuggets 21-12 to end all resistance. The Thunder pushed the margin as high as 43 points late in the fourth quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt throughout the second half.
The Nuggets used their size to dominate the paint in a 121-119 game one win to seize homecourt advantage, and the Nuggets led the series 2-1 after prevailing 113-104 in game three but, as is usually the case in a seven game series, the team with the most matchup advantages prevailed. I picked the Thunder to win in six games because I expected that the Thunder's "suffocating defense will rule the day," and even though it took the Thunder seven games instead of six the seventh game highlighted the huge gap between these teams: the Thunder have the right personnel and game plan to at least contain Jokic at times, while the Nuggets can barely run a functioning halfcourt offense versus the Thunder's relentless pressure. ESPN's Scott Van Pelt often referred to the Thunder as a "wagon" during the regular season, but in game seven the Thunder looked like a high speed train racing past a broken down jalopy.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Alex Caruso, Denver Nuggets, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 AM
Oklahoma City Versus Denver Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #4 Denver (50-32)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Denver can win if…they bully the Thunder in the paint and slow down the Thunder's transition game. Nikola Jokic followed up his MVP-level regular season (29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 10.2 apg) by averaging 24.0 ppg, 11.6 rpg, and 10.1 apg as the Nuggets outlasted the L.A. Clippers in seven games; only three players have averaged a triple double for an entire postseason: Oscar Robertson (1962, four games), Jason Kidd (2007, 12 games), and Russell Westbrook (2017, five games; 2021, five games). In order to beat the Thunder, the Nuggets will not only need triple double production from Jokic but they will also need their frontcourt of Jokic, Aaron Gordon (18.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers), and Michael Porter Jr. (10.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg versus the Clippers) to do a lot of damage in the paint.
How a team scores can often be as important as how much a team scores; by scoring in the paint, the Nuggets can control the tempo of the game to limit the Thunder's easy transition scoring opportunities while wearing down the Thunder's players, putting the Thunder's players into foul trouble, and creating more scoring opportunities from the free throw line by getting into the bonus. If the Nuggets are lured into an up and down game then the Thunder will run them out of the gym because the Thunder are a more athletic and deeper team.
Russell Westbrook, who won the 2017 regular season MVP while playing for the Thunder, could play a key role in this series because of his athleticism and his ability to attack the paint. He averaged 13.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, and 1.3 spg versus the Clippers.
On paper, this series is a mismatch in the Thunder's favor based on each team's overall statistics this season, but head to head these teams have been evenly matched for quite some time; it is not just
their head to head record this season that is tied: Denver and Oklahoma
City have split their last 16 games versus each other. Of course, the
caveat for that statistic is that many of those games were played when
Oklahoma City was tanking and the Nuggets were a championship team or at
least a championship contender.
If the Nuggets play at their absolute best and the Thunder drop off in any way then the Nuggets could win this series, but the Thunder have a much larger margin for error.
Oklahoma City will win because...their suffocating defense will rule the day. During the regular season, the Thunder led the NBA in points allowed (107.6 ppg), defensive field goal percentage (.436), and turnovers forced (17.0 tpg). They also led the league in fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg) while ranking a solid 11th in rebounding (44.8 rpg); they dominate the possession game and then they use their possessions efficiently, ranking fourth in scoring (120.5 ppg) and seventh in field goal percentage (.482). In their first
round sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies, the Thunder forced 77 turnovers
while only committing 42 turnovers, and they held the Grizzlies to .415
field goal shooting, including .304 from beyond the arc.
Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 27.8 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 spg, and 1.0
bpg during the first round. The presumptive regular season MVP shot
poorly from the field (.402), but still had an impact at both
ends of the court. Jalen Williams, who made the All-Star team for the
first time, averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg during the first
round. Chet Holmgren averaged 18.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and a team-high 2.8
bpg. Isaiah Hartenstein made his presence felt in the paint with 9.0 ppg
on .640 field goal shooting plus a team-high 8.8 rpg. Lack
of size was an issue for the Thunder during last year playoffs, but does not seem to be a
problem this season after the addition of Hartenstein.
Other things to consider: This series features two of the three finalists for regular season MVP honors: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic (the third is Giannis Antetokounmpo). The winner will likely be announced while the series takes place. In 1995, San Antonio's David Robinson was announced as the regular season MVP and then was later torched by Houston's Hakeem Olajuwon (the 1994 regular season MVP) in the Western Conference Finals: Olajuwon averaged 35.3 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 5.0 apg, and 4.2 bpg while primarily being covered one on one by Robinson, who averaged 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.2 bpg as Houston won 4-2 en route to capturing the second of back to back NBA titles.
Jokic won the 2024 regular season MVP--his third such honor in a four year span--with Gilgeous-Alexander finishing second, and that order will likely be switched this year in light of the Thunder's record-setting season. Unlike Olajuwon and Robinson, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will not battle each other one on one in this series (except for occasional defensive switches), but this series will nevertheless be viewed historically as a referendum on the 2025 regular season MVP voting. The reality is that Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are both worthy candidates, just as Olajuwon and Robinson were in 1995. In 1995, Olajuwon was already an NBA champion who was about to win his second NBA title, while the nearly three years younger Robinson won both of his NBA titles several years later (1999, 2003). Jokic is a little more than three years older than Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jokic won the NBA championship in 2023, while Gilgeous-Alexander has yet to win an NBA title.
In my 2025 Playoff Predictions article, I explained why I would select Jokic as the regular season MVP, and I anticipated an Oklahoma City-Denver second round matchup, favoring Oklahoma City in six games. Nothing that I saw in the first round altered my thought process on either count. I still think that Jokic is the NBA's best all-around player, and I still think that Oklahoma City will win this series.
Oklahoma City will defeat Denver in six games.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 PM
Nuggets Overwhelm Clippers in Second Half of 120-101 Game Seven Rout
The L.A. Clippers led 26-21 after the first quarter, but trailed 58-47 at halftime and then collapsed in the second half as the Denver Nuggets won game seven 120-101 to advance to a second round matchup versus the Oklahoma City Thunder; the final score obscures the fact that the Nuggets led 103-68 with 8:49 left in the fourth quarter before calling off the dogs. The Nuggets became the first team to have six players each score at least 15 points in a seventh game. Aaron Gordon led the way (22 points), followed by Christian Braun (21 points), Nikola Jokic (16 points), Jamal Murray (16 points), Russell Westbrook (16 points), and Michael Porter Jr. (15 points). Jokic led the Nuggets with 10 rebounds and eight assists, while Westbrook contributed five rebounds, five assists, and a game-high five steals.
Kawhi Leonard scored a team-high 22 points on 6-13 field goal shooting, but he did not impact the game across the board the way that he usually does, finishing with five rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James Harden, the All-Star guard who is supposed to be the team's reliable second option, had seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting and a -29 plus/minus number; his game-high 13 assists were not nearly enough to make up for not only his poor shooting but his refusal to shoot in an elimination game: the game was still within reach at halftime, but the game was out of reach after Harden scored 0 points on 0-2 field goal shooting while playing all 12 third quarter minutes. Leonard had eight points during the third quarter.
Before digging into the details of yet another pathetic performance to add to Harden's horrific elimination game resume (which now includes a 3-11 won/loss record since he fled Oklahoma City after the 2012 season), we will give credit to the Nuggets. Each Denver starter had between 11 and 16 field goal attempts, and Westbrook provided a critical energy boost during his 27 minutes off of the bench; the 2017 regular season MVP is not the first or second option on a regular basis at this stage of his career but--unlike many players who struggle to accept a lesser role when doing so becomes a necessary reality--he is a team-first player who embraces with enthusiasm his current role as a player who provides hustle, scoring, playmaking, rebounding, and defense off of the bench. The Nuggets took a double digit lead into halftime in large part because Westbrook had 10 points, three assists, two rebounds, two steals, and no turnovers while playing all 12 minutes in the second quarter. When Westbrook rebounded his own missed free throw and scored in traffic at the 3:10 mark of the second quarter, I thought about how stupid it sounded when Amin Elhassan and Zach Harper giggled their way through a segment on their radio show while asserting that Westbrook is a stat padder who obtains easy rebounds from complicit teammates. Westbrook is not a stat padder; he is an energetic game-changer: that play sparked a 9-4 run to close the first half, and set the stage for Denver's third quarter avalanche that ended the game and the series.
Westbrook is not a perfect player and he is the first to admit that, but he never cheats the game, his teammates, or the fans: he plays hard, and his basketball IQ is underrated; after the game, Christian Braun--who drew the primary assignment of guarding Harden--mentioned that Westbrook's knowledge of the Clippers' offensive sets in general and Westbrook's knowledge of Harden's tendencies in particular were invaluable to him.
If you love watching basketball being played the way that it is supposed to be played, then you have to love Westbrook; you may not root for him if he is on the opposing team, but you have to respect his approach to the game.
The emotional exclamation point for Denver's win happened after Westbrook stole the ball and delivered an uncontested fastbreak dunk at the 6:53 mark of the fourth quarter to put Denver up, 107-76. Westbrook hung on the rim for an extended period, and did not care at all about the ensuing technical foul; during the stoppage of play, Westbrook exchanged high fives with Denver fans while very emphatically telling the Clippers' fans in the crowd to go home. One got the sense that Westbrook was not only sharing joy with Nuggets' fans while talking trash to Clippers' fans but that he was also letting out a lot of pent-up energy directed toward both of his former teams in L.A.--not just the Clippers, but also the Lakers and the sycophantic media members who unfairly made him a scapegoat even though knowledgeable analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbrook during his time with the Lakers.
James Harden is the exact opposite of Russell Westbrook: Westbrook keeps himself in shape all of the time, plays hard, accepts his role, and focuses on doing with high energy whatever his team needs him to do, while Harden is often out of shape, often does not give maximum effort, pouts if he does not like his role, and disappears like clockwork when his team needs him most, as if he looks at his Gucci and knows that in clutch moments it is "time to get ill."
Harden has said that he does not play in a system because he is "The System." His biggest fan, Daryl Morey, insists that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan. Look up delusional in the dictionary, and you should see those two statements as prime examples.
Morey loves "advanced basketball statistics," but the basic boxscore numbers are more than sufficient to tell Harden's story. When Harden's team plays in an elimination game, you can write the story template before the game and then just fill in the specific statistics after the final buzzer, because you know that he will choke and his team will lose. In 2023 as a 76er, Harden scored nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting with seven assists, and five turnovers in a 112-88 loss to the Boston Celtics; the 76ers trailed by just three at halftime, but Harden looked at his Gucci and got ill in the second half with three points on 1-3 field goal shooting. In 2024 as a Clipper, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting with 13 assists in a 114-101 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, including four points on 2-5 field goal shooting during the decisive third quarter when Dallas outscored L.A., 35-20. This year versus Denver, Harden gave a game seven preview when he disappeared in Denver's 131-115 game five win (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number). Coach Tyronn Lue may deserve the Coach of the Year award for coaxing 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting out of Harden in a 111-105 game six L.A. win; that is the most points Harden has scored in an elimination game in five years.
Nuggets-Clippers was the most closely contested first round series this year--Golden State-Houston is the only other series to even reach a seventh game, to be played on Sunday night--but game seven turned into a blowout because it is difficult for a team featuring Harden in a first option or second option role to overcome his propensity to disappear when it matters most: if a player who is expected to score 12-15 points only scores 6-10 points, his team can overcome that, but if a player who is expected to be a dominant scorer who draws double teams instead just disappears then there is no way for his team to overcome the huge gap between expected production and delivered production. Very few players are capable of filling the first or second option role on a championship contending team, and Harden is not one of those players, as I noted 12 years ago after Harden fled Oklahoma City instead of accepting a third option role behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Harden is not the only reason that his teams have lost so many elimination games, but he is the biggest reason because of his overall approach to the game: if the purported leader is out of shape, does not play hard, and shrinks in big moments then his teammates are going to follow that example in one or more ways. Leonard, who is candid if dry during his press conferences, admitted that the Clippers' game seven effort was disappointing.
Westbrook lifts his teammates' energy, and Harden deflates his teammates' energy.
At least Leonard went to the post-game press conference. Harden left the arena without speaking to the media, which is not the first time that he has done this after a crushing loss, and is yet another example of how ill-suited he is to the role of being a franchise's best player or second best player; a leader does not shirk responsibility for a loss, and speaks to the media even if he knows that there will be uncomfortable questions.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM
Nuggets Sink Clippers to Take 3-2 Series Lead
Jamal Murray poured in a game-high 43 points, Nikola Jokic had a modest (by his lofty standards) triple double (13 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds), Aaron Gordon scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, and Russell Westbrook had 21 points off of the bench as the Denver Nuggets dismantled the L.A. Clippers 131-115 to take a 3-2 series lead. Westbrook showed no ill effects from the foot injury that forced him to miss Denver's game three win. The Nuggets jumped out to a 17-6 first quarter lead, never trailed, and were ahead by as many as 22 points before settling for a 16 point victory margin.
Ivica Zubac scored a team-high 27 points on 11-15 field goal shooting, Kawhi Leonard had a near-triple double (20 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds), and Bogdan Bogdanovic added 18 points off of the bench for the Clippers, who melted down in front of their fans who thought that they showed up for a party, not a funeral.
All of the main players for both teams showed up--except for one: James Harden, a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, was his team's sixth leading scorer in this game. This is deja vu all over again for the Clippers, who are learning that there is at least one other certainty in life besides death and taxes: James Harden disappearing in game five of a 2-2 series. Last year, the Clippers entered game five versus the Dallas Mavericks tied 2-2, and they exited game five trailing 3-2 after a 123-93 loss during which Harden had a triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) while shooting 2-12 from the field (a frigid February "concert tour") and delivering his trademark "Harden" (a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made) with two field goals made and four turnovers. This year, Harden scored 11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number, achieving the rare (except for him) feat of logging a "concert tour" field goal percentage and a "Harden" in the same game.
Game five winners in a 2-2 series go on to win the series 81.3% of the
time, so it is fair to say that game five of the Denver Nuggets-L.A.
Clippers series was the biggest game of the season for both teams. Of course, game six is an even bigger game for the Clippers, because if they lose that game then their season is over with a first round exit, a sad finale for a squad that many "experts" lauded as a potential Western Conference Finals participant before the playoffs began.
Daryl Morey compared Harden favorably to Michael Jordan, but in fact Harden is the anti-Jordan: when Jordan played in a pivotal playoff game you knew that he would be very efficient and productive and his team would most likely win, but when Harden plays in a pivotal playoff game you know that he will be inefficient and unproductive and his team will most likely lose. Harden's elimination game resume provides a blueprint for what the Clippers should expect in game six; last year in game six, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting as the Mavericks ended the Clippers season with a 114-101 defeat.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM
Jokic Delivers 40 Point, 13 Assist Masterclass as Nuggets Defeat Timberwolves, 112-97
Nikola Jokic does not say much, but he does not have to say much because his game speaks volumes. He scored a game-high 40 points, grabbed seven rebounds, and dished for a game-high 13 assists with no turnovers as his Denver Nuggets cruised past the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-97 to take a 3-2 series lead. Jokic had an excellent game four (35 points, seven rebounds, seven assists), including 16 fourth quarter points, but he was even better in game five, shooting 15-22 from the field while showing off an array of moves both in the paint and on the perimeter. Even though Jokic is a big-time scorer, he is also unselfish, and his unselfishness is contagious; it is refreshing to watch the
Nuggets hunt the best shots for the team as opposed to players hunting
for individual opportunities for points or assists. Aaron Gordon had another strong performance (18 points, 10 rebounds, five assists), and Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 16 points each.
Karl Anthony-Towns led Minnesota with 23 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 18 points on 7-7 field goal shooting plus a game-high 11 rebounds. Gobert will undoubtedly be the scapegoat because that is the preferred narrative for many media members, but it should be noted that he had a -2 plus/minus number while every other Minnesota starter was -12 or worse. It is true that Gobert cannot guard Jokic one on one, but no one can guard a great player one on one; when Hakeem Olajuwon torched David Robinson in the 1995 playoffs that did not mean that Robinson is terrible but rather that Olajuwon is an all-time great.
It is fascinating to observe how media members shape their preferred narratives. When LeBron James' teams lose, it is never his fault, even though he is touted as being the greatest player of all-time. When Russell Westbrook's teams lose, it is always his fault, no matter how he is used or how his teammates performed. Rudy Gobert has been the defensive anchor for a Minnesota team that finished third in the Western Conference, but the fact that he cannot lock down Jokic supposedly proves that he is "unplayable."
Only a few days ago, we were told that Anthony Edwards is the next Michael Jordan. If that is true, then why wouldn't this loss be his fault after he scored just 18 points on 5-15 field goal shooting?
Michael Jordan played 179 playoff games. Do you know how many times he scored 18 points or less in a playoff game? Four times. Jordan's teams went 6-0 in the NBA Finals as he won six Finals MVPs. Edwards' teams have won one playoff series. The foolish comparisons need to stop. Edwards is a very talented young player, and he deserves the opportunity to become whatever he will become without being prematurely built up as the next Jordan. Edwards is not even close to Jordan in productivity, let alone career accomplishments. Edwards averaged a career-high 25.9 ppg this year in his fourth season, finishing seventh in MVP voting. Jordan averaged 35.0 ppg in his fourth season while winning his second consecutive scoring title and the first of his five regular season MVPs--and Jordan missed most of his second season due to a foot injury, so his fourth season was really just his third full season. The 22 year old Edwards has yet to match 21 year old rookie Jordan, who averaged 28.2 ppg and finished sixth in MVP voting.
That being said, even though it is unreasonable to compare Edwards to Jordan it is not unreasonable to expect Edwards to put his stamp on what was essentially an elimination game: game five winners in 2-2 series win the series over 80% of the time. Edwards has done a lot of talking on and off the court during this series, but well done is better than well said; Edwards has scored less than 20 points in two of the past three games, and that is not enough.
The main story here, though, is not the Timberwolves. The Nuggets are the reigning NBA champions, and after falling into an 0-2 hole they are one win away from logging four straight victories against the Timberwolves.
The Nuggets did not play well by their standards while eliminating the L.A. Lakers 4-1, but they have had to raise their game to beat this strong Minnesota team. This brings to mind the time that Larry Bird spent most of a game versus Portland playing left-handed. Asked why he did it, Bird quipped that he was saving his right hand for the Lakers (that was back when the Lakers were a contender, unlike now). The Nuggets can beat the Lakers playing "left-handed," but that will not work against the Timberwolves. It looks like playing five games against the Lakers was poor preparation for facing a legit playoff team--but now that the Nuggets got their wake-up call they are poised to put the Timberwolves to sleep.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 2:28 AM
Jokic Scores 16 Fourth Quarter Points as Nuggets Tame Timberwolves and Tie Series at 2-2
Remember all of that talk just a few days ago about the implications of the Minnesota Timberwolves sweeping the Denver Nuggets? The Nuggets silenced that noise by winning game three in Minnesota on Friday night, and the Nuggets regained homecourt advantage with a 115-107 win in Minnesota on Sunday night. The Nuggets shot .570 from the field and logged assists on 29 of their 45 field goals made in a brilliant display of efficient offensive basketball.
As usual, Nikola Jokic led the way. The three-time regular season MVP scored 35 points on 15-26 field goal shooting while grabbing seven rebounds and dishing for seven assists. Jokic professed indifference regarding critics who questioned his selection as the 2024 NBA regular season MVP, but his fourth quarter play was anything but indifferent: he scored 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting while playing all 12 minutes. Jokic is the hub of Denver's offense: when he is guarded one on one he scores at a very efficient rate, and when he is trapped he not only gives up the ball willingly but he makes the right pass even if that does not led to him getting the assist--in contrast to some players who hold the ball because they are more focused on getting an assist than on making the right play for the team.
Aaron Gordon made a major contribution with 27 points on 11-12 field goal shooting while also snaring seven rebounds, and passing for six assists. Denver's successful counter to Minnesota's pressure defense against Jamal Murray is to have Gordon bring the ball up and initiate the offense. Murray added 19 points and a team-high eight assists. Chrisitan Braun (11 points) and Justin Holiday (10 points) made strong contributions off of the bench.
Anthony Edwards made good on his vow after game three to be more aggressive and more effective in game four, pouring in a game-high 44 points on 16-25 field goal shooting. He had five rebounds and five assists. Edwards is a wonderful player, and it would be nice if media members gave him the space to blossom into the best version of himself as opposed to forcing comparisons with all-time greats like Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade. Jordan won six championships, six Finals MVPs, five regular season MVPs, and 10 scoring titles. Wade won three championships, one Finals MVP, and one scoring title. Edwards just won his first playoff series, so from an accomplishment standpoint the comparisons are an insult to the established legends--and from a skill set standpoint, Edwards relies on the outside shot much more than Jordan or Wade did.
Five Minnesota players joined Edwards as double figure scorers: Mike Conley (15 points, game-high nine assists), Karl Anthony-Towns (13 points, 12 rebounds), Rudy Gobert (11 points, 14 rebounds), Jaden McDaniels (11 points), and Naz Reid (11 points). However--and as the TNT studio crew correctly pointed out at halftime and after the game--the Timberwolves need more from Towns, who shot just 5-18 from the field.
The Timberwolves reverted to their old habit of squandering too many possessions with dumb plays at crucial moments. This game--and perhaps this series--turned on a bizarre sequence in the final 20.2 seconds of the first half. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope drilled a three pointer to put Denver up 59-49, and Minnesota had an opportunity to hold the ball for the last shot--but Jokic stole the ball from Edwards and made a precise outlet pass to Michael Porter Jr. for a dunk. Nickeil Alexander-Walker''s long inbounds pass was then stolen by Murray, who sank a halfcourt three pointer just before time expired. There is often a lot of talk about "clutch points" and about what happens in a game's closing moments, but the wild conclusion of the first half when Denver scored eight points in 20.2 seconds provided the game's final margin. It is important to emphasize that many players in Murray's position would have preserved their field goal percentage by making sure to not heave the ball until after the buzzer sounded; taking that low percentage shot to help the team at the possible cost of individual statistics speaks volumes about how the Nuggets' mentality differs from the mentality of many other NBA teams.
After the game, Minnesota Coach Chris Finch described the debacle at the end of the first half as a series of "inexcusable plays" and flatly stated the root cause for the loss: "We lost our composure." He is correct on both counts, and it is interesting how numbers do not always tell the full story. Denver committed one more turnover than Minnesota (12-11), and Minnesota only committed one more foul than Denver (21-20), but if you watched the game with understanding you saw how costly Minnesota's miscues were based on score, time, and overall game situation. For example, Towns wasted a foul 50 feet away from the hoop by bumping Jokic at midcourt when the Nuggets were not threatening to score; that kind of play moves the other team closer to the bonus without conferring any kind of advantage such as stopping an advantage fast break or preventing a player from converting an easy shot at close range. Not all fouls are created equal (and the same can be said for most statistics, which is one reason why "advanced basketball statistics" are not nearly as accurate or meaningful as "stat gurus" suggest, because numbers taken out of the context of situational basketball can be deceptive).
The Timberwolves have improved a lot in the past year, and they have taken strides toward becoming a legit contender, but the final step for them is to clean up their handling of situational basketball at both ends of the court. On paper, they controlled the series after taking a 2-0 series lead with back to back wins at Denver, but now in this tied race to four wins the Nuggets hold the advantage of hosting game five and game seven (if necessary). The home team has yet to win a game during this series, but that is likely to change in the pivotal game five at Denver, because after receiving a wake-up call in the first two games the Nuggets understand the level of energy and physicality required to deal with the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are not a team that can be toyed with like the L.A. Lakers, and in the last two games the Nuggets have stepped up to the challenge.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 8:44 AM
Denver Versus Minnesota Preview
Western Conference Second Round
#2 Denver (57-25) vs. #3 Minnesota (56-26)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
Minnesota can win if…big men Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns dominate the paint while Anthony Edwards rules the perimeter. During the regular season, Minnesota led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.450) and points allowed (106.5 ppg), marked improvements over their rankings in those categories (11th and 18th respectively) in the previous season. This season the Timberwolves also ranked fifth in steals and sixth in blocked shots.
No one should be surprised that Minnesota outscored Phoenix 118.3 ppg to 103.3 ppg in a 4-0 first round sweep. Gobert and Towns are imposing twin towers at both ends of the court, and Edwards has developed into an elite two way player, setting career-highs in regular season scoring (25.9 ppg) and assists (5.1 apg) before averaging 31.0 ppg and 6.3 apg versus Phoenix in the first round. Edwards was clearly the most dominant player in a series that included Suns' future Hall of Famers Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (and it would not be shocking if Bradley Beal also is inducted in the Hall of Fame).
The biggest move--literally and figuratively--made by Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly was trading for Gobert, a transaction that was derided by "stat gurus" who have unbounded faith in "small ball" and jacking up high variance three pointers. Connelly understands that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. The Timberwolves ranked just 23rd in the league in three point field goal attempts, so their successful season featuring big players who do not shoot many three pointers must be very puzzling to "stat gurus."
Connelly accomplished addition by subtraction last season when he shipped out D'Angelo Russell in exchange for Mike Conley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker; just getting rid of Russell represented a roster upgrade, but Connelly traded him for two significant rotation players. Conley is a heady leader, great teammate, and still a productive player (11.4 ppg, team-high 5.9 apg this season), while Alexander Walker played all 82 games this season, thriving as a reserve who also started 20 games.
In marked contrast, Russell is a perennial playoff underperformer who shot .426 from the field in the 2023 playoffs, vowed to do better in 2024--and then shot .388 from the field as the Nuggets dispatched Russell's Lakers in five games.
Prior to this season, I was skeptical of the Timberwolves not because of their size and their lack of three point shooting but because of their track record of low-IQ play in crucial situations. Conley, in his first full season with the team, helped a lot in terms of settling the team down and accelerating the maturation process for the team's young players. Edwards' emergence as an MVP-caliber player was also very important.
Coach Chris Finch did a great job providing structure, but it remains to be seen to what extent he will be on the sidelines during this series after tearing his patellar tendon in a freak sideline collision near the end of Minnesota's first round sweep.
Denver will win because…Nikola
Jokic is putting up scoring/rebounding/passing/field goal percentage numbers reminiscent of prime Wilt Chamberlain:
Chamberlain, 1967 playoffs: 29.1 ppg, 21.7 rpg, 9.0 apg, .579 FG%
Jokic, 2024 playoffs: 28.2 ppg, 16.2 rpg, 9.8 apg, .591 FG%
Jokic's numbers are not small sample size theater, either: last season, he averaged 30.0 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 9.5 apg, and .548 FG% in 20 playoff games during Denver's 16-4 championship run, culminating in 30.2 ppg, 14.0 rpg, 7.2 apg, and .583 FG% as the Nuggets cooled off the Miami Heat 4-1 in the NBA Finals. Jokic's statistical profile is similar to prime Chamberlain, but Jokic's game is a hybrid of Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, combining Bird's three point shooting, deft passing, and hard-nosed rebounding with McHale's footwork in the post.
Jamal
Murray did not shoot well from the field overall (.400) during the Nuggets' 4-1 first round win versus the L.A. Lakers, but he drilled the game-winning shots in game two and in game five en route to averaging 23.6 ppg, second on the team to Jokic. Murray also ranked second in assists (7.2 apg) behind Jokic. Murray has yet to be selected as an All-Star but he has outplayed many All-Stars in his playoff career.
Side note: this is the first playoff series that I can remember during which so much noise was made about (1) which team led at halftime and (2) which team led for the most minutes. The only goal in a playoff series is to be the first team to win four games--and the Nuggets needed just five games to accomplish that versus the Lakers, after sweeping the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. Yet, it seems like many commentators are trying to give LeBron James some kind of award for lifting his team to halftime leads and for having the lead for more minutes than the Nuggets did. By that standard, auto racing records should be rewritten, with championships and trophies being awarded to the drivers who most often had the lead at the halfway point of races and who led the most total laps.
The relevant story in the Denver-L.A. series is that Jokic and his cohesive team outdueled LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and James' hand-picked roster that--just a year ago--James was praising to the sky after throwing first Frank Vogel and then Russell Westbrook under the bus. Listen closely, and you can hear that bus revving up now to run over Darvin Ham.
Back to the Nuggets, who did not chase stars but instead developed a well-balanced team around Jokic.
Michael Porter Jr. led the Nuggets in three point field goals made (20) in the first round while ranking third on the team in scoring (22.8 ppg) and third in rebounding (8.4 rpg). His frontcourt mate Aaron Gordon thrives in the "dunker" spot catching lobs from Jokic and Murray, but he also rebounds (9.8 rpg), defends, and even makes timely passes (4.6 apg).
What distinguishes the Nuggets from other teams--aside from Jokic's greatness--is that the Nuggets do not care who scores or who gets credit; they just want to win the game. Jokic is the leader, and he sets the tone for the team: smart, physical, professional.
Other things to consider: The Nuggets reached the 2020 Western Conference Finals, but then battled injuries during the next two seasons before winning the 2023 NBA title. Their key players--Jokic, Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr.--are all in their primes, and no doubt take quiet delight in defeating various purported "super teams."
Connelly not only built Minnesota into a contender but he is largely responsible for putting together this Denver team: he drafted Jokic
in the second round of the 2014 NBA Draft (41st selection overall), and
he later drafted Murray and Porter Jr. before trading for Gordon. Note that both teams favor size over small ball and neither team relies on three point shooting, with the Nuggets ranking 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal attempts.
This will be a fun, competitive, old school series featuring two teams attacking the paint. The difference will be Jokic--not just his Wilt-like stats, but the way that he distorts opposing defenses that struggle to deal with his ability to both score efficiently and pass with precision.
Denver will defeat Minnesota in six games.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Michael Porter Jr., Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:10 AM
LeBron James Establishes the 40,000 Point Club, but Nuggets Rally Late to Beat Lakers, 124-114
LeBron James made history, but Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets got the 124-114 win over James' L.A. Lakers. Jokic dominated with a game-high 35 points on 16-25 field goal shooting plus 10 rebounds and seven assists. His +16 plus/minus number led both teams. Plus/minus numbers can be "noisy" and should be placed in context, but with Jokic there is a large data sample demonstrating that the Nuggets are an elite level team when he is on the court and a much weaker team when he is not on the court. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 25 points on 10-10 field goal shooting, and Jamal Murray added 24 points plus a team-high 11 assists. James led the Lakers with 26 points, and he became the first player in pro basketball history to score more than 40,000 regular season points. Rui Hachimura chipped in 23 points, and Anthony Davis scored 17 points while grabbing a team-high 11 rebounds--but no other Laker had more than four rebounds, and the Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers 47-31.
The Nuggets swept the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals
by dominating in the second half, and they used that same formula to
win this game: the Lakers led 66-58 at halftime, but in the second half the Nuggets outscored
the Lakers 66-48 and outshot the Lakers .636 to .476. The Lakers played
well offensively overall--scoring 114 points while shooting .528 from
the field, including .414 from three point range--but their defense is
just not at a championship level. In other words, what I have been
saying about the Lakers for several years is still true: they don't need
"lasers" (elite three point shooters), Frank Vogel was not the problem,
Russell Westbrook was not the problem, the "tremendous trio" that the
Lakers received in the Westbrook trade was not the answer, and the
Lakers will not be a legitimate championship contender until they
consistently play elite defense.
The Lakers led 110-108 with
4:11 to go in the fourth quarter after James made a driving layup, but
the Nuggets closed the game with a 16-4 run. James scored 13
fourth quarter points on 6-8 field goal shooting while playing all 12
minutes. Murray led the Nuggets with nine fourth quarter points, while
Jokic scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in eight minutes.
Jokic led both teams with a +12 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter.
Since James joined the Lakers in 2018, he has been stacking up individual accomplishments, but the Lakers have not accomplished much collectively other than winning the 2020 "bubble" championship: the Lakers missed the playoffs in 2019 and 2022, lost in the first round in 2021, and--as noted above--were swept by the Nuggets in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. James' personal milestones during that period are notable:
On January 23, 2018, James became the youngest member of the 30,000 point club.
On February 7, 2023,
James broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's regular season career scoring record of 38,387 points.
Last night, James became the first player to score 40,000 career regular season points. That is a staggering number: The 10,000 point club is a milestone accomplishment that relatively few pro basketball players reach, so James is now the equivalent of a very good NBA career ahead of the 30,000 point mark! For further context, it should be noted that when LeBron James entered the NBA in 2004, the 30,000 point club had just five members: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Julius Erving. The 20,000 point club had 32 members (including the five players listed above). Rules changes and style of play changes have made both clubs somewhat less exclusive--the 30,000 point club now has eight members, and the 20,000 point club now has 55 members--but it is amazing that James has doubled the scoring output of all but 54 players out of the thousands who have played pro basketball for the past 75-plus years. James' durability and consistency is remarkable, as is the fact that he is still playing at an All-NBA level as a 39 year old. One hesitates to call any record unbreakable, but even with the lax defense being played in the NBA today it is difficult to foresee a player averaging 2000 points per season for 20 seasons, which is what it would take to match James' current total--and James conceivably could pad that total by 2000 or more points!
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
Nuggets Never Trail in Second Half, Beat Heat 108-95 to Take 3-1 Lead
Aaron Gordon scored a game-high--and playoff career-high--27 points to pace a balanced scoring attack as the Denver Nuggets defeated the Miami Heat 108-95 to take a 3-1 NBA Finals lead. Gordon shot 11-15 from the field, grabbed seven rebounds, and passed for six assists. The fourth overall selection in the 2014 NBA Draft has not just accepted a non-starring role--he is thriving as the third or fourth option who is capable of scoring 20 points or more in any given game. Gordon could be a 20-25 ppg scorer for a team that never wins anything of consequence, but he prefers being a contributor to a championship quality team instead of being a star for an irrelevant team; there are several high scoring NBA players who are sitting at home now who could learn from that example, assuming that they are more interested in winning an NBA title than in accumulating individual statistics and honors.
Nikola Jokic produced 23 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, a game-high 12 rebounds, four assists, three steals, and three blocked shots in what will undoubtedly be characterized as an "off" game or a "quiet" game, which is a tribute to the high standard of excellence that he has set for himself. Bruce Brown scored 21 points on 8-11 field goal shooting in 30 minutes off of the bench. Coach Michael Malone has shortened his bench, yet it seems that each game at least one bench player makes a major contribution. Jamal Murray had a masterful performance despite shooting just 5-17 from the field: he had a game-high 12 assists, and he did not commit a single turnover despite being trapped and blitzed throughout the game. Murray is the first player to have at least 10 assists in each of his first four NBA Finals games.
There may be some people who are surprised that the Nuggets won despite Jokic having "only" four assists, but the reality is that a team's success is rarely connected to an arbitrarily chosen statistic. The Nuggets' offense is remarkably consistent and efficient: they have scored between 104 and 109 points in each NBA Finals game, and they have shot between .494 and .520 from the field in each NBA Finals game--and those team numbers have not varied much even as Jokic's scoring output has ranged between 23 points and 41 points, with his assist totals ranging between four and 14.
The Nuggets won easily despite both Jokic and Murray shooting poorly because Jokic and Murray both had a significant positive impact in other ways; the Nuggets run smart, crisp offensive sets that take advantage of the extra defensive attention that Jokic and Murray draw, and that is why the Nuggets shot well overall despite both of their stars not shooting well. If you just look at boxscore statistics or even "advanced basketball statistics" then you will have trouble understanding and explaining what happened in this game--and you might even erroneously conclude that Gordon is the team's best player (or was the team's best player in game four). The Nuggets' offensive efficiency flows from Jokic and Murray; take them out, and everyone else would have to work much harder to score. Gordon may very well score even more points without Jokic and Murray, but his shooting percentage would be worse (he is a career .472 field goal shooter who has shot .500 or better in each of his seasons with the Nuggets). Murray's 5-17 field goal shooting is not equivalent to a James Harden "concert tour" because Murray took shots within the flow of the game and because Murray played in a way that enabled his teammates to be effective; in contrast, when Harden has a "concert tour" he is dribbling the air out of the ball while running an inefficient offense. It should also be noted that a "concert tour" field goal percentage is an aberration for Murray but a regular playoff occurrence for Harden.
Jimmy Butler had 25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists in 45 minutes. It may not be fair to ask or expect him to do more, but it is evident that if he is not able to do more then this series will be over soon. Bam Adebayo added 20 points and 11 rebounds, but he shot 8-19 from the field and committed seven turnovers; he has had some excellent moments during this series and he is posting impressive scoring and rebounding numbers--but overall he is being devoured by Jokic's superior size, strength, and skill. Kyle Lowry had an excellent first half to help the Heat keep the score close, and then he went scoreless in 20 second half minutes, which is not surprising for a 37 year old point guard who is barely 6-0 tall; small, aging point guards are typically not leading the charge for championship teams, and it is too much to expect even a six-time All-Star/2019 NBA champion to do so. Lowry finished with 13 points and seven assists.
The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 37-34 after being destroyed on the boards in game three, but that small advantage was wiped out by larger disadvantages in turnovers committed (15-8) and field goal percentage (.494 versus .449).
This game had a back and forth flow in the first half before the Nuggets took command in the second half. The Nuggets led 18-11 with 2:11 remaining in the first quarter, but the Heat ended the quarter on a 10-2 run, taking a 21-20 lead on a Butler three pointer just before time ran out in the first quarter. The Heat outrebounded the Nuggets 11-7 in the first quarter, and shot .500 from the field while holding the Nuggets to .316 field goal shooting. The momentum shifted shortly after Jokic turned his right ankle while stepping on Max Strus' foot. Jokic limped noticeably after that play, and he briefly went to the locker room to get his foot retaped after the first quarter.
Jokic returned to action at the 7:50 mark of the second quarter with the score tied 30-30. He hit a deep three pointer on the next possession, and the Nuggets never trailed the rest of the way. Gordon and Jokic led the Nuggets with 16 first half points each. Butler topped the Heat with 14 first half points on 6-9 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high five first half assists. Lowry made a big impact in the first half with 13 points and four assists. The Heat attacked the paint much more aggressively than they did in game three, and they were rewarded with dunks, layups, and free throws. The Heat won the first half rebounding battle 18-16--but, despite the Heat playing about as well as they can play, the Nuggets enjoyed a 55-51 halftime lead.
Gordon made a nifty one handed bounce pass to Murray for a layup that put Denver up 65-55 at the 7:35 mark of the third quarter. Passing and unselfishness are contagious, and it is clear that the way that Jokic and Murray play has permeated this team. The Nuggets led 86-73 after three quarters, and they appeared to be poised to push that margin to 20 points--but the Heat kept battling, and then Jokic committed his fifth foul at the 9:24 mark of the fourth quarter. The Nuggets led 86-76 as Jokic went to the bench for the next 5:15, but while Jokic sat the Heat only shaved one point off of that margin; the Nuggets were up 96-87 when Jokic returned, and the Nuggets soon pushed that lead to 108-91 before coasting to victory. After the game, Coach Malone conceded that during the regular season the team's non-Jokic minutes often went "haywire," but he proudly noted that this has not been the case during the playoffs and it was not the case in this game.
The Heat are 2-6 since taking a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead
versus the Boston Celtics, and--even though they will undoubtedly fight
hard until the end--they may have run out of gas after making an
improbable run from the Play-In Tournament to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Nuggets look fresh and focused. Their team offense is excellent, and their team defense is better than advertised, and better than it has been in recent memory; the mental lapses and breakdowns that they suffered during game two appear to be an aberration because in the other three Finals games the Nuggets have held the Heat to less than 100 points.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:24 AM
Jokic's Versatility Cools off Heat as Nuggets Win Game One of the NBA Finals
Before analyzing how well the Denver Nuggets played in their 104-93 victory over the Miami Heat in game one of the 2023 NBA Finals, it is important to emphasize that this is not Denver's first Finals appearance; the New York Nets defeated the Denver Nuggets 4-2 in the 1976 ABA Finals as New York's Julius Erving authored one of the greatest performances in playoff history, leading both teams in scoring (37.7 ppg), rebounding (14.2 rpg), assists (6.0 apg), steals (3.0 spg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). At that time, only three other players had averaged more points in a Finals series (Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, and Jerry West), and 47 years later Erving's average still ranks sixth in Finals history.
The Nuggets have a rich history dating back to the ABA that should be honored and recognized by the NBA and the NBA's media partners--as should all of the ABA's statistics and records. Three players from Denver's 1976 Finals team have been inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame--David Thompson, Dan Issel, and Bobby Jones--and Nikola Jokic is well on his way toward earning that honor.
In game one versus the Heat, Jokic led both teams in scoring (27 points on 8-12 field goal shooting and 10-12 free throw shooting) and assists (14) while also grabbing 10 rebounds. Jokic broke Bill Russell's NBA Finals single game record for assists by a center as he posted his ninth triple double of the 2023 playoffs, extending his own record for most triple doubles in one postseason. Jokic presents a challenge that the Heat seem unlikely to be able to solve: when they guarded Jokic one on one, he killed them with his scoring in the post, but when they sent a second defender to harass Jokic then he dissected them with his passing. Jokic's ability to score, rebound, and pass at a high level wrecked any defense that Miami tried. ABC's Jeff Van Gundy repeatedly mentioned Jokic's great conditioning, and how that great conditioning enables Jokic to be dominant for all four quarters; that is a major factor that distinguishes two-time regular season MVP Jokic from 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid.
Jamal Murray continued his outstanding 2023 playoff run, finishing with 26 points, 10 assists, and six rebounds. Aaron Gordon added 16 points and six rebounds while playing great defense against Jimmy Butler. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 14 points and a game-high 13 rebounds as Denver's size overwhelmed Miami, resulting in a remarkable statistic: the Heat set an NBA playoff single game record by attempting just two free throws; it seemed as if Denver had a moat surrounding the paint on defense and an express lane leading to the paint on offense.
Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 26 points and 13 rebounds while dishing for five assists. Gabe Vincent scored 19 points and had five assists. Haywood Highsmith poured in 18 points on 7-10 field goal shooting in 23 minutes off of the bench, and backup point guard Kyle Lowry provided a lift with 11 points, five assists, and five rebounds.
However, Miami's two Eastern Conference Finals heroes--Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin--had forgettable games. Butler had 13 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists while compiling a game-worst -17 plus/minus number, and Martin scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting.
Is Butler wearing down? He began the 2023 playoffs with 35 points, 11 assists, five rebounds, and three steals as the Heat beat the Milwaukee Bucks in game one, becoming just the fourth player to accomplish that stat line more than once in a playoff game since the NBA began tracking steals in 1974, joining Russell Westbrook (three times), Michael Jordan (twice), and LeBron James (twice). Butler scored at least 25 points while shooting at least .500 from the field in each of his first six games this postseason--tied with Bernard King (1984) and Michael Jordan (1992) for the fourth longest such steak ever behind only LeBron James (2017) and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10 in 1970, nine in 1977)--but Butler has shot at least .500 from the field just once in his past 10 playoff games (including game one of the NBA Finals). After scoring at least 30 points in four of his first five playoff games in 2023, Butler has topped the 30 point barrier just once in his last 13 playoff games.
The NBA is often a first quarter league, and that was very much the case in this game. The Nuggets outscored the Heat 29-20 in the first 12 minutes--including 20-6 in the paint--as Jokic scored just four points but shredded the Heat's defense with six assists. Gordon sliced the Heat to ribbons with his cuts to the hoop, scoring 12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting. The second quarter produced a similar score--30-22 in Denver's favor--but by different means, as the Heat did a better job protecting the hoop only to see the Nuggets shoot 4-5 from three point range. Unlike the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Nuggets do not "dribble, dribble, dribble" into contested jumpers; the Nuggets attack the paint, and create outside shots from their paint attacks.
Near the end of the third quarter, the Nuggets pushed their lead to 84-60, but the Heat never quit, and they cut the margin to 96-87 with 2:34 remaining in the fourth quarter. Jokic was content to spend most of the game as a distributor, but in the fourth quarter as the Heat made their run he scored 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting to seal the deal.
Two reasons that the Heat ended up with the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference are anemic offense, and being an undersized team that has difficulty dealing with bigger players/bigger teams. Those are the reasons that I expected the Heat to lose to the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics but--to the Heat's credit--they played much better in the Eastern Conference playoffs than they did during the regular season. The Heat are unlikely to grow prior to game two, and the Nuggets are unlikely to shrink. The Heat can attack the hoop more aggressively, and they can more frequently target Jokic's defense by involving him in the two man game at the top of the key; look for the Heat to do both of those things in game two, but also look for the Nuggets to play even better than they did in game one en route to taking a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Miami for games three and four.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, ABA, Bam Adebayo, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:03 AM
