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Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Evaluating the Kyrie Irving Trade

The Dallas Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris from the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, a 2029 first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks.

Conventional NBA wisdom is that if any team can be considered the winner of a trade it would be the team that received the best player, even if the other team received several very good players. In basketball, a team fields just five players at a time--compared to nine in baseball and 11 in football--so a star can affect the outcome of a basketball game much more than a star can affect the outcome of a baseball game or a football game.

Kyrie Irving is an eight time All-Star who has made the All-NBA Team three times, won the 2012 Rookie of the Year Award, and made significant contributions as the Cleveland Cavaliers won the 2016 NBA title. He is averaging 27.1 ppg this season, and he has averaged at least 26.9 ppg each season since joining the Brooklyn Nets prior to the 2019-20 campaign. There is no question that he is the best player involved in the Brooklyn-Dallas trade.

Irving is also the first player traded in the middle of a season during which he is averaging at least 27 ppg, at least 5 apg, and at least 5 rpg. That tells you that he is perhaps the greatest player involved in a midseason trade--or that there is more to Irving's story than what the above numbers and honors suggest.

Consider these numbers: 60, 67, 20, 54, 29. Those are Irving's total number of games played for the previous five seasons (he has played in 40 of 53 possible games so far this season). Irving played less than 70 games in eight of his first 11 NBA seasons. He has a track record for being unavailable, unpredictable, and unreliable. 

Irving missed eight games this season after the Nets suspended him for his unrepentant antisemitism. Irving is portrayed as an intelligent, thoughtful person, but promoting antisemitism and entertaining the notion that the Earth is flat are signs of--at best--misguided thinking, not intelligence and thoughtfulness. 

Nets players are unlikely to admit it publicly, but Irving's departure is likely a relief for them, because they no longer have to wonder and worry about if he will show up for games, nor will they have to explain/excuse his absences and his bizarre viewpoints.

Mavericks players may be excited about Irving's talent, but Irving has worn out his welcome with each of his three teams--Cleveland, Boston, Brooklyn--and it would be surprising if he does not wear out his welcome in Dallas.

Could Irving team with MVP candidate Luka Doncic to lead Dallas to the NBA Finals and maybe even an NBA championship? From a talent standpoint that may seem superficially plausible--Doncic and Irving could be a fearsome duo on offense--but from an overall standpoint that seems unlikely, in no small part because of the depth and defense that Dallas gave up to acquire Irving; Finney-Smith is an elite defender, and Dinwiddie is at least a solid defender who is also capable of being a big-time scorer. It is more likely that the Mavericks fail to repeat last year's run to the Western Conference Finals than that they vault from the fifth seed (their current spot in the standings) to the NBA Finals.

From a skill set standpoint, Irving is an elite three level scorer who is an above average playmaker and a good rebounder for a guard. His ballhandling is very good, though somewhat overrated by those who value flash over substance. Irving's defense is subpar in general, though in short spurts he has demonstrated the ability to be solid (which raises the question of why he is not more consistent at that end of the court). Irving is a small player who is frequently injured.

It is true that Irving's presence will make it difficult for opponents to trap Doncic without getting burned, but the Doncic-Irving backcourt will light up the scoreboard at both ends of the court as opponents will now have a tasty choice of which guard to "hunt" when chasing matchups during playoff series that are all about matchups.

The players who the Nets received are far from being chumps. Dinwiddie is a former Net who averaged 20.6 ppg for Brooklyn in 2019-20. For the past two seasons, he has been a solid second or third option for Dallas. He can replace most of the scoring that Irving provided for the Nets, if not the playmaking and shot creation (both for himself and for his teammates). Finney-Smith is a prototypical "3 and D" wing who was Dallas' best perimeter defender.

"Stat gurus" discount the importance of chemistry, but something can be real and significant even it is not easily quantified. In this trade, the Nets gave up talent to obtain dependability, depth, and players who are coachable. Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith will not be in the headlines for the wrong reasons, and they will not do or say things that their teammates will then be asked to explain. Until Kevin Durant returns to action, the Nets are going nowhere fast--but if Durant can regain (and keep) his health then this deal improves their chances by stabilizing the roster. The Nets still lack size--and that will be fatal during the playoffs--but Irving's departure will prove to be addition by subtraction (unless Durant whines his way out of town, in which case the Nets instantly become irrelevant).

Speaking of Durant, he fled Oklahoma City in 2016 after the Thunder pushed the Golden State Warriors to seven games in the Western Conference Finals. Instead of embracing the challenge of trying to beat the Warriors, he won two Finals MVPs while leading the Warriors to back to back titles, but then he decided to team up with Irving in Brooklyn--a decision that, by any objective analysis, turned out disastrously, as Durant and the Nets failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs with that duo on the roster. No one should feel sorry for Durant, because he could have contended for titles alongside Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City, and then he could have kept contending for titles in Golden State, but he chose to take a different path alongside a player who has fomented turmoil throughout his career. It would not be surprising if Durant now asks to be traded--something he did in the previous offseason before withdrawing the request--nor would it be surprising if Durant is as discontented with his new team as he became with each of his other teams.

By demanding a trade just before the trade deadline and making it clear that otherwise he would leave as a free agent, Irving did not give the Nets much leverage, so the Nets did quite well to obtain two starters, a first round draft pick, and multiple second round draft picks for a disgruntled and often unavailable star whose only sustained playoff success happened while playing alongside LeBron James. The Mavericks already reached the Western Conference Finals without Irving, so from their standpoint this trade is "NBA Finals or bust"--Irving may not stay with the team long term, and he almost certainly will become a distraction sooner rather than later, so we will find out in the 2023 playoffs if this was a good deal for them. On the other hand, the Nets still have enough pieces to do some damage in the playoffs while also acquiring enough assets to have some flexibility to make moves if Durant jumps ship. Each team received what it wanted, but I would be more nervous if I were a Mavericks fan than if I were a Nets fan; the Nets had a short championship window already given Durant's age and injury history, but the Mavericks are playing roulette with the roster surrounding a superstar entering his prime. The only time the Mavericks won a championship, they had one superstar surrounded by very good complementary players who defended well, as opposed to relying on two offensive juggernauts who are below average defensively. Dallas Coach Jason Kidd knows that very well, because he was the point guard for those 2011 championship Mavericks. It will be interesting to see if Irving respects Kidd enough to curb the behaviors that created such havoc in each of his previous stops.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:39 AM

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Monday, May 09, 2022

Mavericks Make 20 Three Pointers, Even Series With Suns at 2-2

During a playoff series, it is often asserted that the trailing team has no answers for what the leading team is doing--until the trailing team wins a game or two, and then it is asserted that the leading team is in trouble. The reality is often both simpler and more complex than such one dimensional narratives suggest: the simple truth is that, barring injuries, the team with the most significant enduring matchup advantages will win the series; the complex truth is that a variety of factors influence the outcome of a particular game, including role players playing better at home than on the road, differences in officiating, and individual outlier performances that are not sustainable.

The Phoenix Suns beat the Dallas Mavericks 121-114 in game one and 129-109 in game two. Those two home victories did not mean that the Mavericks had no answers for the Suns and no chance to win a game or even two games, but those victories indicated that the Suns have matchup advantages that will likely result in them eventually winning the series.

The Mavericks have now won two home games to send the series back to Phoenix tied 2-2. Those two victories do not mean that the Suns are in trouble, but they served as a reminder that teams tend to shoot better and perform better at home. For example, in the Suns' game two rout they shot 13-25 (.520) from three point range while the Mavericks shot 17-41 (.415) from beyond the arc--but in game four on Sunday afternoon, the Suns shot 9-25 (.360) on three pointers while the Mavericks shot 20-44 (.455). If those trends continue then of course the Suns may be in trouble--but the point is that it is unlikely that either trend will continue: in game five in Phoenix, the Suns will likely shoot better than they did in Dallas, and the Mavericks will likely shoot worse than they did in Dallas.

One interesting trend to monitor is that Chris Paul may be wearing down. Why does this matter more than the three point shooting percentages of the teams? It matters more because Paul wearing down and/or getting injured during the playoffs has been a recurring theme throughout his playoff career, and is a major reason that--despite all of the regular season success enjoyed by his teams--he has played in the NBA Finals just once. In game three, Paul set a playoff career-high with seven first half turnovers. He did not have a second half turnover, but he was also oddly passive, finishing with just 12 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and just four assists. In game four, Paul had a "triple single" (five points, seven assists, five rebounds) before fouling out after playing just 23 minutes. High turnover rates and high fouling rates are two signs that a player is not focused mentally and/or wearing down physically (resulting in slower reaction time). Perhaps Paul will bounce back with a big game five performance, but his history of wearing down should concern Suns' fans.

After setting a playoff career-high with four first half fouls in game four, Paul hardly made the most of his final two fouls. Paul received his fifth foul at the 9:32 mark of the third quarter. Dribbling the ball up the court, Paul veered into the path of Jalen Brunson, initiating contact that was correctly ruled an offensive foul. Paul knew that the call was correct, and he did not complain, which is quite telling considering that he often complains about foul calls. It is inexplicable that the Suns squandered a replay challenge on this call. Paul fouled out at the 8:58 mark of the fourth quarter after grabbing Brunson's arm on a shot attempt. This was another obvious and unnecessary foul. Paul did not complain about that call, either. A smart player who is mentally engaged in the game is not going to rack up four first half fouls, let alone foul out by committing an offensive foul in the backcourt followed by a reach in foul after giving up an offensive rebound to the opposing team's point guard. 

It is comical when commentators state with great conviction that a team's playoff success is directly connected to whether or not a particular player scores more (or less) than a specific number of points, or whether or not a particular player has more (or less) than a specific number of assists. This is not a new phenomenon, but the reality is that many factors determine which team wins a playoff game. One might assert that Dallas can only win if Luka Doncic scores more than 40 points or if he has at least 12 assists (depending on whether your preferred narrative is that Doncic must "take over" or Doncic must "involve his teammates"), but the reality is that Dallas won game four with Doncic scoring 26 points on 9-25 field goal shooting (.360) while dishing for 11 assists. Dorian Finney-Smith made a major contribution with 24 points, including 8-12 shooting from three point range. 

With Paul playing passively and then fouling out, the Suns did not display the offensive balance and efficiency that were their trademarks throughout the season. Devin Booker poured in a game-high 35 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, but no other Sun scored more than 15 points.

The Suns will likely win game five at home before either breaking through on the road in game six or winning again at home in game seven, but if you are looking for reasons for Dallas to be optimistic then focus on (1) Paul's history of wearing down and (2) Doncic emerging as the best player in the series. Doncic has scored more points in the first 20 games of his playoff career than every player other than Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain, and a player who is that great can sometimes will his team to a road playoff victory; if that happens in game five, then the Mavericks could close out the series from the comforts of their home court. That is not the outcome that I expect, but Paul's long-established resume and Doncic's short but growing resume at least make it possible.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:50 AM

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