20 Second Timeout is the place to find the best analysis and commentary about the NBA.

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Boston Avenges Game Seven Loss, While Sacramento Falls Victim to Another Stephen Curry Masterpiece

ESPN's Friday night NBA doubleheader featured a pair of rematches of 2023 playoff series. The last time the Miami Heat visited Boston, Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 28 points to lead the Heat to a 103-84 win in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals; the last time the Golden State Warriors visited Sacramento, Stephen Curry scored 50 points as the Warriors routed the Kings 120-100 in game seven of their first round playoff series.

Some things change, and some things stay the same: the Celtics flipped the script on the Heat with a 119-111 win, while the Warriors defeated the Kings 122-114.

Boston reserves only scored eight points, but that did not matter because each Boston starter scored at least 17 points, topped by Derrick White (28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting), Jaylen Brown (27 points on 11-22 field goal shooting), and Jayson Tatum (22 points on 9-22 field goal shooting). The Celtics won the rebounding battle 55-45 as Al Horford and Jrue Holiday tied for game-high honors with 10 rebounds each. 

Miami shot just 38-89 (.427) from the field as 2023 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler scored 14 points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Tyler Herro, who missed the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals due to injury, led the Heat with 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo scored 27 points but did not shoot efficiently from the field (10-23).

The Heat jumped out to a 26-13 first quarter lead as the start of the game looked like a replay of Miami taking a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, but by the end of the first quarter Boston had trimmed the margin to 28-25. Neither team led by more than seven points again until White's three pointer at the 4:19 mark of the fourth quarter put Boston up 109-101. Kevin Love's three pointer with :59 remaining cut the Boston lead to 114-111 but then two free throws by White and a Brown three pointer closed out the scoring as Herro and Love missed long jumpers on the Heat's final two possessions.

Both teams were at full strength, but this was just game two out of 82 so how much can we learn from Boston's win? It is evident that Boston has a tremendous starting lineup, arguably the best 1-5 in the league. Boston has size at every position, and used that size to muscle the Heat by not only winning the rebounding battle decisively but also by outscoring Miami 52-36 in the paint. Miami's reserves outscored Boston's reserves 20-8, but every Heat reserve had a negative plus/minus number while every Boston reserve had a positive plus/minus number, which suggests that Boston did a good job of using a few starters with the reserves to stabilize that unit. The Heat missed Gabe Vincent, who signed with the L.A. Lakers in the offseason after making key contributions to the Heat's 2023 playoff run. The Heat need "Playoff Jimmy" to beat the Celtics, but now that the Celtics have added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis even "Playoff Jimmy" may not be enough for the Heat to win a seven game series versus the Celtics.

Meanwhile, Stephen Curry torched the Kings with 41 points on 14-19 field goal shooting. Klay Thompson had a solid game (18 points on 7-12 field goal shooting), and the undersized Warriors only lost the rebounding battle by two (41-39) despite being without the services of the injured Draymond Green. The Warriors are starting Chris Paul at least until Green returns, and Paul had a solid game (10 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, game-high 12 assists). Paul can be a very efficient player--particularly in the regular season--but he is undersized, which means that in the playoffs he can be overpowered and he is also prone to getting injured or just being worn down. If the Warriors are going to continue to trot out a starting five this small then opposing teams must make a concerted effort to attack the Warriors in the paint, because otherwise the Warriors will exploit their advantages in terms of range shooting and having multiple skilled ballhandlers.

De'Aaron Fox nearly matched Curry shot for shot, finishing with 39 points on 14-28 field goal shooting, including 22 fourth quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Domantas Sabonis had a strong game (19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, game-high 18 rebounds, team-high seven assists) but the Kings shot just 41-94 (.436) from the field after ranking first in the league in scoring (120.7 ppg) and second in the league in field goal percentage (.494) last season; the combination of scoring much less efficiently than usual without demonstrating any improvement defensively was too much for the Kings to overcome.

The first quarter was tightly contested, and the Kings led 29-24 entering the second quarter. The Kings pushed their advantage to 11 three different times only to watch the Warriors take a 60-57 lead by halftime. Jalen Rose used to quip that the "third quarter Warriors" were the NBA's 31st team, and the Warriors lived up to that moniker in this game, exploding for 39 third quarter points and leading by as much as 18 points before settling for a 99-84 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors still led by 15 at the 3:42 mark of the fourth quarter but on their next five possessions they had four turnovers and a missed Andrew Wiggins three pointer. The Kings exploited those empty possessions to cut the lead to 117-112 before Curry hit the "night, night" three pointer with 43 seconds remaining. It is worth noting that Paul--who was brought in to stabilize the Warriors and curb their tendency to be sloppy with the ball--was on the court while the Warriors collapsed, and he "contributed" one turnover and one foul during that time. The Kings missed three treys and a free throw during that sequence, so they had chances to tie the game or even take the lead.

The 1-1 Warriors are scrappy and as long as they have a highly productive Curry they will be competitive, but their small lineup is unlikely to be successful over the course of an 82 game regular season and what they hope will be an extended playoff run. It will be interesting to see if Coach Steve Kerr moves Paul to the bench after Green returns; that would be the most logical move, even though Paul has already bristled at the idea of not being a starter.

The 1-1 Kings' poor shooting versus the Warriors is an aberration, but their shoddy defense--the Warriors shot 48-87 (.552) from the field--is concerning. Mike Brown is a defensive-minded coach, but the Kings are not a defensive-minded team and that must change in order for the Kings to become a legit championship contender.

Labels: , , , , , , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 9:55 AM

0 comments

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home