20 Second Timeout

Implications of the Miami Heat's Reported Acquisition of Giannis Antetokounmpo

NBA trades for the upcoming season do not become official until July 6, but assuming that the reports are correct and that nothing happens to scuttle the deal, the Milwaukee Bucks will send franchise cornerstone Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat along with Bobby Portis in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first round draft picks, a second round draft pick, and a pick swap. No other teams are reported to be involved at this time, but last year the Kevin Durant trade that initially included just the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns morphed into a massive seven team deal.

In general, the winner of an NBA trade is the team that acquires the best player involved in that deal; in basketball, several good players rarely are as valuable as one great player, and hoarding draft picks is akin to trading in risky futures and commodities: for draft picks to pay off, the person making the selections must be a skilled talent evaluator, the players who are drafted must be blessed with good health, and the coaching staff must do well at talent development. I would rather have a great player now than the potential of drafting a great player later, but that viewpoint is not universally held. 

Pat Riley has been the Miami Heat's president since 1995, and his consistent team building modus operandi relies not on hoarding draft picks but on trading for players who have earned multiple All-Star selections: the list of All-Stars who Riley acquired by trade includes Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James (via sign and trade after the infamous "Decision"), Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler. 

Antetokounmpo performed better last season (27.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 5.4 apg, .624 FG%) than any of the above players did in their season prior to joining the Heat with the exception of James, who won the 2010 regular season MVP before fleeing Cleveland to form the first "super team" of the modern era. The only downside regarding Antetokounmpo is that injuries limited him to a career-low 36 games last season--Antetokounmpo played in at least 61 games in each of his other 12 NBA seasons, and he finished fourth or better in regular season MVP voting for seven straight seasons (2019-25) while winning back to back MVPs in 2019-20. It will be interesting to see how fit and healthy Antetokounmpo is with the Heat, a team that is notorious for demanding that its players maintain high conditioning levels with low body fat percentages. Antetokounmpo is just 31 years old, and we have seen in recent years that well-conditioned NBA stars can play at an elite level past age 35--and, in LeBron James' case, past 40.

In 2021, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their second NBA title 50 years after the 1971 Bucks featuring Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge swept the Baltimore Bullets in the NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo scored 50 points in Milwaukee's series-clinching game six win versus the Phoenix Suns, tying Bob Pettit's record for the most points scored in a Finals-clinching victory while also becoming just the sixth player to have at least three 40 point games in one NBA Finals. Antetokpoumpo joined Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only three players who have won a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award (the Finals MVP was first awarded in 1969, and the Defensive Player of the Year award was first bestowed in 1983). Antetokounmpo averaged 35.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the Finals while shooting .618 from the field, the first player in Finals history to post all of those numbers in the same series. 

However, since that championship run the Bucks have not been a potent playoff team: they lost in the second round in 2022, and then suffered three straight first round exits before not even qualifying for the Play-In Tournament in 2026. After the Heat eliminated the Bucks in five games in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, Antetokounmpo responded to a question about the Bucks' season being a failure:

You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year? No, right? So, every year you work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something--toward a goal--which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, to be able to provide a house for them or take care of your parents. You work toward a goal. It's not a failure. It's steps to success. If you've never--I don't want to make it personal.

Michael Jordan played 15 years. Won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That's what you're telling me? I'm asking you a question...Exactly, so why you ask me that question? It's the wrong question. There's no failure in sports. There's good days, bad days, some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not, some days it is your turn, some days it's not. That's what sports is about. You don't always win. Some other group is gonna win, and this year somebody else is gonna win. Simple as that. We’re gonna come back next year and try to be better, try to build good habits, try to play better--not have a 10 day stretch of playing bad basketball. Hopefully we can win a championship.

So, 50 years from 1971 to 2021 that we didn't win a championship, it was 50 years of failure? No, it was not. There were steps to it. And we were able to win one and hopefully we can win another one.

Sorry, I didn't want to make it personal, because you asked me the same question last year, and last year I wasn't in the right mind space to answer the question back--but I remember it.

Antetokounmpo understands that it is not possible to win a championship every year and that a season without winning a championship is not automatically a failure--but he also wants to have more chances to win another title before he retires. After it became apparent that the Bucks' championship window had closed, Antetokounmpo wanted out while the Bucks wanted to rebuild. 

The Heat now have an excellent and versatile frontcourt anchored by Antetokounmpo, three-time All-Star/six-time All-Defensive Team member Bam Adebayo, 2022 All-Star/2022 NBA champion Andrew Wiggins, and 2021 NBA champion Bobby Portis. The Heat are very thin in the backcourt, and they are likely to lose 2026 All-Star shooting guard Norman Powell in free agency. Davion Mitchell is serviceable at best as a starting point guard, and even if the Heat run their halfcourt offense through Antetokounmpo they still need point guards who can run the fastbreak and defend opposing point guards. The Heat also need to replace the three point shooting provided by Herro and Powell (assuming that Powell does not return). 

Until the Heat upgrade their backcourt, their realistic best case scenario is a 50 win regular season followed by a second round exit--but if they improve their backcourt then they can be a championship contender. In the 12 seasons since James left the Heat to return to Cleveland in 2014, the Heat missed the playoffs four times (including last season), lost in the first round four times, lost in the second round once, reached the Eastern Conference Finals three times, and lost in the NBA Finals twice; even if the Heat lose in the second round next season, that will be a better finish than they had in eight of the previous 12 seasons. Clearly, Riley did not acquire Antetokounmpo with the goal of losing in the second round; the point is that there is a limit to how far a team can go without an MVP-caliber player, and now the Heat have such a player for the first time in a dozen years.

The Heat's future may be uncertain, but includes the potential upside of winning an NBA championship. The Bucks' future is much grimmer. Consider what happened the last time the Bucks traded their cornerstone player; in six seasons, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar led the Bucks to two NBA Finals and one NBA title while winning three regular season MVPs, and the Bucks won at least 60 games in three of those seasons--but the Bucks won 38 games or less in three of the first four seasons after trading Abdul-Jabbar to the L.A. Lakers with Walt Wesley for Junior Bridgeman, Brian Winters, Dave Meyers, and Elmore Smith. The Bucks eventually became a contender again, making the playoffs for 12 straight seasons from 1980-91, but they never advanced beyond the Eastern Conference Finals, losing three times in that round. After losing in the 1986 Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks reached the Eastern Conference Finals once (2001) between 1987 and 2019 (Antetokounmpo's sixth season). 

Rebuilding may sound good on paper or in soundbites, but NBA championships are won by teams led by players like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Giannis Antetokounmpo, not by the very good players who their teams received after trading them. Abdul-Jabbar won three regular season MVPs, five NBA championships, and one NBA Finals MVP with the Lakers. He had the good fortune of being paired with Magic Johnson and James Worthy, but they also had the good fortune of being paired with him. 

The Heat may not win a title with Antetokounmpo, but they have a better chance of winning a title in the next five years than they have had since James left; the Bucks traded a generational player for some good players and several draft picks, and if the aftermath of the Abdul-Jabbar trade is an indicator it may be 50 years before they have another generational player who leads them to the NBA Finals. 

Labels: Bobby Portis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 AM

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Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament

Perhaps the NBA's media partners feel obligated to rave about how great the NBA Play-In Tournament is, but I said it in 2021 during the first NBA Play-In Tournament and I will say it again now: Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball. In the pre-Adam Silver NBA, after the regular season ended we were spared from watching sub-.500 teams battle to claim the eighth seed; a team could only earn a playoff spot by playing as hard as possible during the season to finish in the top eight, without the safety net of having a second chance to "play in" to the playoffs.

The problem with having the ninth and tenth best teams face off in high profile games is that teams with losing records did not stack up losses by accident; they are flawed squads, and when you shine a national spotlight on those squads their flaws are glaringly obvious. Instead of creating gimmicks like the NBA Cup and the Play-In Tournament to try to discourage tanking and convince teams to play hard throughout the season, the NBA should have adopted the relegation system while also not allowing the worst teams to get the top draft picks; if the worst teams each season were dropped to a lower, less prestigious, and less lucrative league instead of being rewarded with the opportunity to draft the best young players, teams would not only stop losing on purpose but they would do their best to at least win enough to avoid relegation.

In the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader of uninspired basketball, the 37-45 Miami Heat tamed the 39-43 Chicago Bulls, 109-90. I erred by picking the Bulls--who went 15-5 in their last 20 games--to not only win this game but to win on Friday night to earn the eighth seed. The Bulls clearly preferred getting an early start on their summer vacation versus fighting to get into the playoffs; the Bulls never led, trailed by as many as 17 points in the first quarter, and allowed the anemic Heat offense to shoot 41-83 (.494) from the field as boos echoed throughout the United Center. Tyler Herro scored a game-high 38 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, while Josh Giddey paced the Bulls with 25 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. The Heat led 71-47 at halftime, and they led by at least 13 points the rest of the way. I thought that the Bulls would prove to be the better team, but the reality is that neither of these teams is very good, so in a one game winner take all showdown anything can happen--anything other than competitive and entertaining basketball.

The second game of the doubleheader was no better, with the home team again looking lethargic and offering little defensive resistance as the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks--who went 7-13 in their last 20 games--blasted the 40-42 Sacramento Kings, 120-106. It is fair to say that firing Coach Mike Brown and then trading De'Aaron Fox did not make the Kings better; the Kings went 6-9 down the stretch before rolling over and playing dead at home in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Even without the services of injured All-Star Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks made light work of the Kings, leading 71-48 at halftime (nearly matching the halftime margin of the Miami-Chicago fiasco) and maintaining at least a 16 point cushion throughout the second half until Terence Davis hit a meaningless three pointer with 19.9 seconds remaining to close out the scoring.

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring and rebounding (27 points, nine rebounds), Klay Thompson had a flashback shooting performance (23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting), Brandon Williams contributed 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off of the bench, and P.J. Washington scored 17 points while tying Davis for team-high honors with nine rebounds. For the deposed Kings, DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 33 points, Zach LaVine added 20 points on 8-19 field goal shooting along with nine assists and a game-high tying five turnovers, and Domantas Sabonis had 11 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers.

Since the NBA began the Play-In Tournament in 2021, no 10th seeded team has claimed the eighth seed in either conference; that will change on Friday night if Miami beats Atlanta or if Dallas beats Memphis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Giddey, Klay Thompson, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

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Cavaliers, Herro, and McClung Take the All-Star Saturday Night Trophies

NBA All-Star Saturday Night is not likely to ever recapture the glamour of its glory years, an era from the 1980s to the early 2000s when Pantheon members Julius Erving, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant competed against other Hall of Famers. The first official Slam Dunk Contest took place at halftime of the 1976 ABA All-Star Game, and four of the five participants became Hall of Fame inductees: Julius Erving (the winner), David Thompson, George Gervin, and Artis Gilmore (the fifth participant was Larry Kenon, who made the All-Star team five times in his ABA/NBA career). Some fans may scoff at what they consider to be the pedestrian nature of some of those 1976 dunks, but keep in mind that no one at that time was thinking about jumping over props; rest assured that Erving and Thompson--both of whom had vertical leaps in excess of 40 inches--could have done any dunk that we have seen in the "modern" era: after all, Erving did his trademark free throw line dunk in games, which is more difficult and impressive than dunking over any prop.

Now, the NBA cannot beg, borrow, or steal enough money to induce the elite players to deign to participate in what is supposed to be one of the league's showcase events.

So, we have to settle for what we can get, because there is no point to living in the past or complaining too much about the present.

The highlight of the Skills Challenge was the San Antonio Spurs team of Chris Paul and Victor Wembanyama being disqualified after trying to circumvent the rules; to shave seconds off of their time, the Spurs did not even attempt any shots during the shooting portion of the obstacle course, and just focused on the passing portion of the obstacle course, drawing boos from the crowd and a prompt disqualification from the officials. The Spurs' shenanigans are much like tanking and load management, odious practices that not only don't work but cheat the fans from seeing legit competition. You might say that what the Spurs did does not matter because few people care that much about the Skills Competition, but a major reason that people don't care about the Skills Competition--and care less about the NBA in general than they did before--is that the players' focus has shifted from trying to compete to trying to find shortcuts and excuses to not compete. Here is a novel idea: spend some time practicing the shots from the Skills Challenge--shots that could also be useful in real games--instead of trying to figure out how to win an event while exerting as little energy as possible. 

Paul's career Skills Challenge resume--a record six appearances but no wins--now rivals his playoff resume, which includes the most blown 2-0 leads in NBA postseason history. Hopefully for Spurs fans, Paul is only teaching Wembanyama how to lose in the Skills Challenge and not how to lose 2-0 leads in the playoffs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the NBA this season, and their team--featuring Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley--won the Skills Challenge, defeating the Bay Area's home team, the Golden State Warriors (Draymond Green and Moses Moody).

Ten of the NBA's top 25 leaders in career three point field goal percentage are active players--including future Hall of Famers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson--but none of them participated in the Three Point Contest. Just one of the players who ranks in the top ten in three point field goal percentage this season--Cleveland's Darius Garland--participated in the Three Point Contest. In the first round, Golden State's Buddy Hield--who ranks 97th in three point field goal percentage this season, and 58th all-time--tied Stephen Curry's Three Point Contest record with 31 points. Two-time defending Three Point Contest champion Damian Lillard failed to advance. Garland and and the Miami Heat's Tyler Herro joined Hield in the final round. Herro set the bar with 24 points, Garland scored 19 points, and Hield fell just short with 23 points. This was Herro's first All-Star Weekend event win, and tomorrow he will make his first appearance in the All-Star Game (or games, depending how one prefers to describe the NBA's new format, colloquially known as the "Adam Silver begs, hopes, and pleads that at least a few NBA All-Stars will pretend to care" All-Star Game).

The Slam Dunk Contest lacked drama--the eventual winner was obvious immediately--but was yet another showcase for Mac McClung's surreal athleticism. The two-time defending Slam Dunk champion jumped over a car and executed a two-handed reverse dunk for his first dunk, setting a standard right from the jump (pun intended!) that the other competitors could not match. After McClung jumped over an assistant, grabbed the ball and did a spinning two-handed dunk for his second dunk, TNT's Kenny Smith said that the event should just be McClung doing five dunks with music playing in the background--an acknowledgment that this contest was no contest. McClung lived up to that praise by receiving a perfect score of 50 on all four of his dunks. McClung is the first "three-peat" winner in Slam Dunk Contest history. Nate Robinson is the only other three-time champion (2006, 2009, 2010).

Julius Erving--who not only won the 1976 ABA Slam Dunk Contest, but was runner up (at age 34!) to Larry Nance in the 1984 NBA Slam Dunk Contest--presented the Julius "Dr. J" Erving Slam Dunk Contest trophy to McClung:

 

 

It would be interesting to see some of the NBA's All-Stars who are great leapers--Anthony Edwards comes to mind--challenge McClung, but don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. 

It is what it is, to borrow a (too often) used phrase, but we should not let those who did not appear cast too big of a shadow over those who did appear: congratulations to Mitchell/Mobley, Herro, and McClung for doing their best to put on a great show during All-Star Saturday night.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Mac McClung, NBA All-Star Weekend, Skills Challenge, Slam Dunk Contest, Three Point Contest, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:28 AM

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Assessing the Lakers After the First 22 Games of the J.J. Redick Era

It is an NBA truism that after the first 20 games or so of a season you can reasonably assess how good each team is. The Lakers just played their 22nd game of the 2024-25 season, so let's take stock of the early results of the J.J. Redick era. The L.A. Lakers started last season 13-9--a .591 winning percentage--and they finished with a 47-35 record (.573) to rank eighth in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lakers are 12-10 after one of LeBron James' old teams took his current team to the woodshed tonight, as the Miami Heat waxed the Lakers, 134-93. Tyler Herro poured in a game-high 31 points and had a +30 plus/minus number as every Heat starter had a plus/minus number of at least +22. James led the Lakers with 29 points and he had a -21 plus/minus number as every Lakers starter had a plus/minus number of -20 or worse.

The Heat set a franchise single game record with 42 assists, they tied the franchise single game record with 24 three pointers, and they posted the third largest margin of victory in franchise history. The Heat shot 52-90 (.578) from the field, including 24-47 (.511) from three point range.

No NBA team should lose by 40-plus points, and that goes double for a team featuring two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting). It would be one thing if this game were an aberration, but this is the fourth time this season that the Lakers lost by at least 25 points. The 10-10 Heat are far from being a powerhouse, but the listless Lakers simply did not play hard or smart.

After last season, the Lakers fired Darvin Ham and replaced him with J.J. Redick because Redick is purported to be a basketball genius (despite the fact that he has no prior coaching experience outside of coaching his sons in youth league play). Redick is the fourth coach the Lakers have had during the seven year LeBron James era in L.A.; with James running the franchise, the Lakers have won one championship while missing the playoffs twice and losing in the first round twice. James won two of his four NBA titles during his four seasons in Miami, the only franchise that did not give him free reign to hire coaches and make personnel decisions, but he won just two NBA titles in his other 17 seasons running the show during two stints in Cleveland and his current stint in L.A.

The Lakers' best season by far with James was 2019-20, when they went 52-19 in the COVID-19 shortened season before winning the "bubble" championship. That squad ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage, and ninth in rebounding--but just 21st in three point field goal percentage. The notion that LeBron James must be surrounded by three point shooters is demonstrably false. The 2020 Lakers ranked first in field goal percentage because they ranked third in two point field goal percentage, with Dwight Howard shooting .732 from two point range, followed by JaVale McGee (.640), James (.564), and Davis (.546). James averaged 13.1 two point field goal attempts per game and 6.3 three point field goal attempts per game, while Davis led the team with 14.2 two point field goal attempts per game. Davis averaged just 3.5 three point field goal attempts per game. The 2020 Lakers averaged 56.7 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking ninth in the league.

So far this season (not including tonight's blowout loss), the Lakers rank 21st in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 27th in rebounding. Redick was supposed to provide a great advantage with his analytically driven offensive strategies, but the Lakers rank 17th in scoring, ninth in two point field goal percentage, 10th in field goal percentage, and 18th in three point field goal percentage. The Lakers average 51.9 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking 14th in the league.

In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort. 

I don't place much value on the NBA Cup, but it should be noted that Ham's Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup while Redick's Lakers failed to advance past group play in this season's NBA Cup.

It may have been a heartwarming story when Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James on Opening Night, but the harsh reality is that Bronny is probably not good enough to deserve a G League roster spot, let alone an NBA roster spot; he has averaged 5.0 ppg on .211 field goal shooting in two G League games this season. By hiring the unqualified J.J. Redick and drafting the unqualified Bronny James, the Lakers' front office sent a clear message that this season is about appeasing LeBron James and not about winning games, so it should not be surprising that the Lakers are not playing hard or smart.

There are good reasons to believe that the Lakers are worse than their record. They had a -2.6 point differential before tonight's debacle. Seven of the Lakers' 12 wins are against sub-.500 teams New Orleans, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto (twice), and Utah (twice). The Lakers only have seven games left against those teams, and they have yet to face Boston, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, or New York, teams that they will play a total of 14 times.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 11:59 PM

2 comments

Boston Avenges Game Seven Loss, While Sacramento Falls Victim to Another Stephen Curry Masterpiece

ESPN's Friday night NBA doubleheader featured a pair of rematches of 2023 playoff series. The last time the Miami Heat visited Boston, Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 28 points to lead the Heat to a 103-84 win in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals; the last time the Golden State Warriors visited Sacramento, Stephen Curry scored 50 points as the Warriors routed the Kings 120-100 in game seven of their first round playoff series.

Some things change, and some things stay the same: the Celtics flipped the script on the Heat with a 119-111 win, while the Warriors defeated the Kings 122-114.

Boston reserves only scored eight points, but that did not matter because each Boston starter scored at least 17 points, topped by Derrick White (28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting), Jaylen Brown (27 points on 11-22 field goal shooting), and Jayson Tatum (22 points on 9-22 field goal shooting). The Celtics won the rebounding battle 55-45 as Al Horford and Jrue Holiday tied for game-high honors with 10 rebounds each. 

Miami shot just 38-89 (.427) from the field as 2023 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler scored 14 points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Tyler Herro, who missed the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals due to injury, led the Heat with 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo scored 27 points but did not shoot efficiently from the field (10-23).

The Heat jumped out to a 26-13 first quarter lead as the start of the game looked like a replay of Miami taking a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, but by the end of the first quarter Boston had trimmed the margin to 28-25. Neither team led by more than seven points again until White's three pointer at the 4:19 mark of the fourth quarter put Boston up 109-101. Kevin Love's three pointer with :59 remaining cut the Boston lead to 114-111 but then two free throws by White and a Brown three pointer closed out the scoring as Herro and Love missed long jumpers on the Heat's final two possessions.

Both teams were at full strength, but this was just game two out of 82 so how much can we learn from Boston's win? It is evident that Boston has a tremendous starting lineup, arguably the best 1-5 in the league. Boston has size at every position, and used that size to muscle the Heat by not only winning the rebounding battle decisively but also by outscoring Miami 52-36 in the paint. Miami's reserves outscored Boston's reserves 20-8, but every Heat reserve had a negative plus/minus number while every Boston reserve had a positive plus/minus number, which suggests that Boston did a good job of using a few starters with the reserves to stabilize that unit. The Heat missed Gabe Vincent, who signed with the L.A. Lakers in the offseason after making key contributions to the Heat's 2023 playoff run. The Heat need "Playoff Jimmy" to beat the Celtics, but now that the Celtics have added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis even "Playoff Jimmy" may not be enough for the Heat to win a seven game series versus the Celtics.

Meanwhile, Stephen Curry torched the Kings with 41 points on 14-19 field goal shooting. Klay Thompson had a solid game (18 points on 7-12 field goal shooting), and the undersized Warriors only lost the rebounding battle by two (41-39) despite being without the services of the injured Draymond Green. The Warriors are starting Chris Paul at least until Green returns, and Paul had a solid game (10 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, game-high 12 assists). Paul can be a very efficient player--particularly in the regular season--but he is undersized, which means that in the playoffs he can be overpowered and he is also prone to getting injured or just being worn down. If the Warriors are going to continue to trot out a starting five this small then opposing teams must make a concerted effort to attack the Warriors in the paint, because otherwise the Warriors will exploit their advantages in terms of range shooting and having multiple skilled ballhandlers.

De'Aaron Fox nearly matched Curry shot for shot, finishing with 39 points on 14-28 field goal shooting, including 22 fourth quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Domantas Sabonis had a strong game (19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, game-high 18 rebounds, team-high seven assists) but the Kings shot just 41-94 (.436) from the field after ranking first in the league in scoring (120.7 ppg) and second in the league in field goal percentage (.494) last season; the combination of scoring much less efficiently than usual without demonstrating any improvement defensively was too much for the Kings to overcome.

The first quarter was tightly contested, and the Kings led 29-24 entering the second quarter. The Kings pushed their advantage to 11 three different times only to watch the Warriors take a 60-57 lead by halftime. Jalen Rose used to quip that the "third quarter Warriors" were the NBA's 31st team, and the Warriors lived up to that moniker in this game, exploding for 39 third quarter points and leading by as much as 18 points before settling for a 99-84 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors still led by 15 at the 3:42 mark of the fourth quarter but on their next five possessions they had four turnovers and a missed Andrew Wiggins three pointer. The Kings exploited those empty possessions to cut the lead to 117-112 before Curry hit the "night, night" three pointer with 43 seconds remaining. It is worth noting that Paul--who was brought in to stabilize the Warriors and curb their tendency to be sloppy with the ball--was on the court while the Warriors collapsed, and he "contributed" one turnover and one foul during that time. The Kings missed three treys and a free throw during that sequence, so they had chances to tie the game or even take the lead.

The 1-1 Warriors are scrappy and as long as they have a highly productive Curry they will be competitive, but their small lineup is unlikely to be successful over the course of an 82 game regular season and what they hope will be an extended playoff run. It will be interesting to see if Coach Steve Kerr moves Paul to the bench after Green returns; that would be the most logical move, even though Paul has already bristled at the idea of not being a starter.

The 1-1 Kings' poor shooting versus the Warriors is an aberration, but their shoddy defense--the Warriors shot 48-87 (.552) from the field--is concerning. Mike Brown is a defensive-minded coach, but the Kings are not a defensive-minded team and that must change in order for the Kings to become a legit championship contender.

Labels: Boston Celtics, De'Aaron Fox, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 9:55 AM

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Heat Overcome Slow Start, Beat Celtics as Butler Scores 41 Points

There are some players who have been deemed "Bubble All-Stars" because they played so much better in the NBA's Orlando "bubble" after COVID-19 struck in 2020 than they did before or after, but anyone who would dare put Jimmy Butler in that category is committing basketball heresy. Butler led the Miami Heat in scoring (41 points), rebounding (nine rebounds), assists (five), and steals (four) as the Heat came from 13 points behind to beat the Boston Celtics 118-107 in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals. Butler shot 12-19 from the field and 17-18 from the free throw line. He also had three blocked shots, including a spectacular rejection of a Jayson Tatum corner three pointer. Butler's 41-9-5-4-3 stat line is obviously very good, but it is a bit surprising to realize that since the NBA began tracking steals and blocked shots in 1973-74 only five other players have matched all of those numbers in the same game, and no one had previously accomplished this in the playoffs.

Tyler Herro finished second in scoring (18 points) and rebounding (eight rebounds) for the Heat in one of his better performances of the 2022 playoffs. Gabe Vincent scored 17 points while starting in place of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry. The Heat played with great collective energy and effort, but make no mistake that Butler led the way at both ends of the court. 

Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 29 points while also contributing eight rebounds and six assists, but he had seven turnovers, and he scored just eight second half points on 1-7 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown added 24 points and a game-high 10 rebounds. Robert Williams III and Payton Pritchard scored 18 points each. Boston played without two starters: Al Horford missed the game because he is in health and safety protocols for COVID-19, while 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is nursing a foot injury that he reportedly suffered during the Celtics' game seven victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. Horford and Smart represent at least 60 minutes of playing time that had to be distributed to other players, which has a ripple effect throughout the roster, not to mention that both players have skill sets that their replacements simply cannot match. "Next man up" sounds great, but the reality is that the hierarchy within each team exists for good reasons: if bench players were good enough to start then they would be starting, and if players who rarely play except for blowouts were good enough to be in the regular rotation then they would be in the regular rotation. Injuries are part of the game, but it is unfortunate that injuries to key players have been a factor in several series this year, and it is particularly unfortunate for injuries to be a factor in a series that will decide which Eastern Conference team plays in the NBA Finals. That is not meant to take anything away from the Heat, who had a very good game plan that they executed at a high level.

In the first half, it may have looked like the Celtics did not miss Horford and Smart very much, but that is fool's gold; during a 48 minute game it is difficult to overcome the absence of two of the team's top players. The Celtics led by as much as 13 points in the first half, and they were up 62-54 at halftime. Tatum scored 21 first half points, the most that he has ever scored in the first half of a playoff game. However, any notion that the Celtics could survive--let alone thrive--shorthanded vanished in a flurry of turnovers and missed shots as the Celtics shot just 2-15 from the field and committed eight turnovers in a nightmarish third quarter. Tatum scored five points, shot 0-2 from the field, and committed six turnovers. Butler scored more points (17) than the entire Celtics team, and when the dust settled the Heat won that stanza 39-14 to build a 93-76 lead that was never seriously threatened the rest of the way.

The Celtics won the other three quarters, but the NBA does not use the old CBA scoring system in which teams received standing points for each quarter won. Horford will almost certainly miss game two, and Smart's status for game two has not yet been released, so the Celtics will need to find some answers that do not include those two key players. One answer is to cut down on the careless turnovers; the Heat are a great defensive team, but the Celtics also committed unforced errors (to borrow a tennis term). Another answer is to commit fewer fouls, and thus force the Heat to score from the field as opposed to the free throw line. During this game, we saw extended periods when the Celtics looked at least as good--if not better than--the Heat, so I would not say that hope is lost, but game two is a must win, because comebacks from 2-0 deficits are rare (even though the Mavericks just accomplished this versus the Phoenix Suns, a team led by Chris Paul, the "king" of allowing 2-0 comebacks).

Labels: Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:28 AM

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Boston Versus Miami Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Boston (51-31) vs. #1 Miami (53-29)

Season series: Boston, 2-1

Miami can win if…the Heat can contain Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without unleashing the Celtics' three point shooters. When the Celtics faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the second round, the Bucks elected to protect the paint and dare the Celtics to beat them from beyond the arc, which resulted in the Celtics setting a game seven record with 22 three pointers, including seven by Grant Williams. In contrast, despite having to contend with Joel Embiid in the paint for four games in a six game series, the Heat held the Philadelphia 76ers to .337 three point field goal shooting in the second round. 

Jimmy Butler has been one of the top performers in the 2022 playoffs. He is leading the Heat in playoff scoring (28.7 ppg), assists (5.4 apg), and steals (2.1 spg). He ranks second on the team in playoff rebounding (7.6 rpg), trailing Bam Adebayo by just .1 rpg. Adebayo is second on the team in playoff scoring (14.6 ppg) and steals (1.2 spg) while ranking first among the team's main rotation players in field goal percentage (.594). Tyler Herro has struggled at times during the postseason, but he is contributing 13.8 ppg (down from 20.7 ppg in the regular season). Injuries have forced All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry to miss six of the Heat's 11 playoff games. It seems unlikely that he will be healthy enough to have a major positive impact during this series.

Boston will win because…as much as this may sound like a cliche, the Celtics are peaking at the right time. They started the season slowly, but in the second half of the season they emerged as a championship contender. Other teams feared facing the Brooklyn Nets, but the Celtics not only embraced the possibility of that matchup but they swept the Nets. The Celtics then won a grueling seven game series against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.

Jayson Tatum has all the necessary tools to be an MVP: size, scoring ability from all areas of the court, rebounding, defense, ballhandling, passing. He has not won an MVP because (1) his statistics are good but not overwhelming, and (2) he does not have a signature playoff moment, let alone a championship. Defeating Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo in back to back series greatly enhances Tatum's playoff resume. An NBA title would complete that resume.

Other things to consider: The Heat are an outstanding defensive team, but they are mediocre offensively and they can be bothered by size. The Heat beat the Celtics 4-2 in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals held in the Orlando bubble, but the 2022 Celtics have more size (most notably Al Horford) and depth than the 2020 Celtics. 

The Celtics have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times in the past six years, but that accomplishment has flown under the radar because this version of the Celtics has yet to make it to the NBA Finals, let alone win a championship. The NBA has a level of built-in parity such that it is possible for a team to make a fluky one to the Conference Finals without being an elite team that sustains that level of success; recent examples include James Harden's Houston Rockets, and Trae Young's Atlanta Hawks (the Hawks may prove me wrong, but I doubt it). 

A star player or star duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals will likely be remembered decades later, particularly if that team wins at least one championship during that run. In my time following the NBA, such teams include Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers (seven Conference Finals appearances, one NBA championship--including two CF appearances and one NBA championship playing alongside Moses Malone), Larry Bird's Boston Celtics (eight CF appearances, three NBA championships), the Magic-Kareem L.A. Lakers (10 CF appearances, five NBA championships--including one CF appearance after Kareem retired), Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons (five CF appearances, two NBA championships), the Jordan-Pippen Chicago Bulls (eight CF appearances, six NBA championships), the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (five CF appearances, three NBA championships; Kobe then made three CF appearances and won two NBA championships without Shaq), the ensemble Pistons (six CF appearances, one NBA championship), the James-Wade Heat (four CF appearances, two NBA championships), the James Cavaliers (four CF appearances, one NBA championship; James also made two CF appearances in his first tour of duty with the Cavaliers), and the ensemble Warriors (six CF appearances, three NBA championships--including three CF appearances and two NBA championships with Kevin Durant leading the team).

If the Celtics or Heat win an NBA championship (either this year, or in the next few years with the same stars), that will change their place in history; it is the difference between being teams like the 1980s Bucks or 1990s Cavaliers that were very good but never got over the hump, and being a team that is always remembered not only for winning a title but for having a stretch of sustained excellence. Erving's 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83, but if they had not won the 1983 NBA championship they would not be remembered the way that they are remembered now. Whether or not that is the way things should be, that is the way things are, so there is a lot of legacy at stake for both teams. If nothing changes, the 2020s Celtics and 2020s Heat will be lightly remembered as really good teams that did not quite have "it." One championship shifts the narrative.

Before the playoffs began, I picked Milwaukee to win the NBA championship, and I still think that the Bucks would have won the title if not for the Khris Middleton injury, so it is logical for me to now pick the team that beat the Bucks. That being said, I expect this series to be closely contested, and played at a high level. Erik Spoelstra has already established himself as a Hall of Fame caliber coach, while Boston's Ime Udoka has been very impressive in his first season as an NBA head coach.

Boston will win in six games. 

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Boston Celtics, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 7:46 PM

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Joel Embiid Returns, 76ers Stifle Heat in 99-79 Win

Joel Embiid had MVP level impact--if not MVP level numbers--in his return to action after suffering a concussion and orbital fracture, and it is not a coincidence that his Philadelphia 76ers won 99-79 after losing the first two games of this second round series versus the Miami Heat. Embiid finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 5-12 from the field, but he anchored a stout Philadelphia defense that held the Heat to 27-77 field goal shooting (.351) after the Heat shot .471 from the field in the previous two games. The 76ers shot 16-33 (.485) from three point range after shooting just .219 from beyond the arc in games one and two. Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green led the 76ers with 21 points each. All of Green's shot attempts were three pointers, and he connected on 7-9. 

James Harden came close to "scheduling" the 2-11 "concert tour" date that he has "scheduled" in several previous playoff games and that I--only half jokingly--suggested that he will schedule for an elimination game in this series. Harden finished with 17 points on 4-11 field goal shooting. He also had eight rebounds, six assists, and seven turnovers, so his performance was all over the place with a mixture of the good, the bad, and the ugly. His plus/minus number of +27 during a game in which he shot .364 from the field, gave the ball to the opposing team seven times, and scored just two second half points is a great example of why plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should sometimes be taken with a grain of salt.

Before the game, Mike Wilbon, not known for making historically accurate or relevant comparisons, compared Embiid's imminent comeback to Willis Reed's comeback in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals. "Screamin' A" Smith used Embiid's comeback as an excuse to take yet another gratuitous shot at Ben Simmons, saying that Simmons would not have played if he had been in Embiid's shoes, acting as if Simmons missed games on a whim and not because of a back injury that required surgery. Sensible people understand that (1) playing in game three of a second round series is not as historically significant as playing in game seven of the NBA Finals, and (2) Simmons has nothing to do with this series so there is no reason to take a cheap shot smearing his name--and it is even more unseemly to do so in light of the reporting that Simmons has some mental health issues. Legitimate criticism of Simmons' performance and of his decision to not play at the start of the season when he was healthy are both fair, but why target a player who is not even participating in this series and who is recovering from back surgery?

Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 33 points on 12-22 field goal shooting, but his Heat teammates left their focus and their jump shots in South Beach. Most notably, Miami center Bam Adebayo feasted during Embiid's absence with a team-high 23.5 ppg on blistering .714 field goal shooting, but with Embiid in the building Adebayo's numbers shrank to nine points on 2-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers, with Embiid's presence in the paint, deserve more that a little credit for Miami's offensive offense, but it is also fair to say that the Heat uncharacteristically lacked game plan discipline, and that they played without their usual physicality.

The 76ers set the tone from the start, jumping out to an 18-8 lead, but they also committed six turnovers in the first quarter, and those miscues helped the Heat to trim the deficit to 21-17 by the end of the stanza. Harden led the way with nine first quarter points, while Embiid added eight points. Tyler Herro scored six first quarter points for the Heat, but then he disappeared for most of the rest of the game, finishing with 14 points on 5-15 field goal shooting.

The second quarter began in similar fashion, with the 76ers riding a 9-0 run to extend their lead to 30-17. Both teams continued to struggle to score, and the 76ers clung to a 41-34 halftime lead despite shooting 12-35 (.343) from the field and committing nine turnovers. Harden scored 15 points on 3-6 field goal shooting, but he did most of his damage from the free throw line (8-8). He looks like a different player when he earns--or, sometimes, is given--free points. Harden's four first half turnovers helped to keep the Heat within striking distance. Embiid shot just 2-7 from the field but he led both teams with seven rebounds, and his physical presence at both ends of the court made a significant impact. The Heat shot 14-43 (.326) from the field. Butler led the Heat in first half scoring (10 points) and rebounding (six), but he shot just 4-11 from the field. Herro did not score in the second quarter, missing all six of his field goal attempts.

The third quarter had the same script as the first two quarters, with the 76ers pushing their advantage to 51-37 before the Heat made a 20-6 run to tie the score at 57. Butler scored 14 points during that stretch. The 76ers led 68-65 heading into the fourth quarter. Green topped the 76ers in third quarter scoring (nine points on 3-3 field goal shooting). Harden, limited to six third quarter minutes due to foul trouble, did not score and missed both of his field goal attempts. 

With the game up for grabs, the Heat squandered a great opportunity to take a 3-0 lead that would have, for all practical purposes, signified the end of the series. The Heat shot 3-15 from the field in the fourth quarter with a very unusual division of labor: Butler shot 3-3, and his teammates shot 0-12. Harden was the only player on either team who played all 12 fourth quarter minutes, so his bloated plus/minus total reflects his participation--or, to be precise, his attendance--during garbage time minutes as he contributed two points on 1-3 field goal shooting yet had a gaudy +17 plus/minus number in the final 12 minutes.

I did not expect or predict a sweep even if Embiid never played a minute in this series. It will be interesting to see if the 76ers can win game four to send this series back to Miami tied 2-2, or if the Heat will reignite their dormant offense to move within one win of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals.

Labels: Danny Green, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 10:52 PM

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Heat Cruise by 76ers as the James Harden "Concert Tour" Wraps up in Miami

The Miami Heat used a balanced scoring attack, blazing three point shooting, and solid defense to defeat the Philadelphia 76ers 119-103 and take a 2-0 lead before the series shifts to Philadelphia for the next two games. Bam Adebayo scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting and he grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Jimmy Butler added 22 points on 8-15 field goal shooting plus a game-high 12 assists. Victor Oladipo (19 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and 2022 Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro (18 points on 6-10 field goal shooting) provided a huge lift off of the bench. The Heat outrebounded the 76ers 44-34, and the Heat shot 14-29 (.483) from three point range while holding the 76ers to 8-30 (.267) shooting from long distance.

With Joel Embiid sidelined for the second straight game (concussion protocol/orbital fracture), Tyrese Maxey poured in a game-high 34 points on 12-22 field goal shooting. Tobias Harris added 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting while also contributing four rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Neither Maxey nor Harris committed a single turnover. If only the 76ers had an MVP-caliber player who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team so that Maxey and Harris could be the second and third options, then the 76ers might have a real chance in this series even without Embiid.

Instead, the 76ers have a player whose resume is so fraudulent it should form the basis of a sequel to "Catch Me if You Can." James Harden's "concert tour" from the first game (5-13) continued as he set a 6-15 tour date tonight. Harden scored 20 points while shooting 6-15 from the field, and he led the 76ers with nine assists; he was inefficient overall, and he was invisible when it mattered the most: in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden scored two points and shot 0-3 from the field. He scored four points on 1-5 field goal shooting in the second half. 

The "experts" keep saying that Harden has suddenly aged, but the only thing that has changed is that referees are not rewarding him with phantom foul calls; that means that he gets fewer cheap free throws, and it also means that defenders can guard him normally. Harden's demonstrated skill set now is the same that it was during previous playoff runs, as is his propensity to disappear in crunch time. Harden still overdribbles, jacks up three pointers, shoots poorly, and disappears when his team needs him the most. Harden was front and center for what Charles Barkley called "one of the worst choke jobs I've ever seen" as Harden's 2019 Houston Rockets lost at home to the Golden State Warriors sans Kevin Durant, and what we are seeing now is just the latest chapter in the epic book of Harden's playoff choke jobs/disappearing acts.

Miami led 31-24 after the first quarter as Butler scored six points on 2-4 field goal shooting. Harden started slowly with four points on 1-4 field goal shooting. Philadelphia gained no ground in the second quarter, and Miami enjoyed a 60-52 edge at intermission. Harden's only effective minutes happened in the second quarter, when he scored 12 points on 4-6 field goal shooting, but even those numbers are inflated by a gift from Oladipo with .1 second left: Harden was trapped and about to fling a desperation shot when Oladipo lightly bumped him, enabling Harden to parachute out of danger to the free throw line, where he made all three charity tosses. Those three donated points are more than he scored in the entire third quarter, as Maxey scored 13 points to keep the 76ers within striking distance while Harden had two points and two assists. Miami led 91-80 heading into the final stanza. 

Less than three years ago, Daryl Morey proclaimed that Harden is the greatest scorer in NBA history. With the 76ers' season on the line for all intents and purposes (teams rarely come back from a 2-0 deficit), Harden produced two fourth quarter points while orchestrating an offense that shot 6-18 from the field (.333) and was outscored 28-23. Harden has been pulling this kind of choke job/disappearing act in the playoffs for a decade. Why are people pretending like this is something new? The NBA officiating regular season games correctly and not giving Harden cheap free throw attempts is new, but Harden struggling in the playoffs is not new.

One of Harden's favorite "concert tour" dates is 2-11, a performance that he has scheduled four times during his playoff career. Maybe he is saving that one for an elimination game; it would not be the first time he scheduled a 2-11 tour date for an elimination game. 

When "stat gurus" began promoting "advanced basketball statistics," one of the major criticisms that they lobbed at old school NBA executives was that those executives regularly overpaid players because those executives allegedly did not know how to analytically evaluate basketball talent. Many "stat gurus" and their media Boswells got paid a lot of money to promote (and self-promote) such narratives. It will be fascinating to see if Morey, the poster child for the "stat gurus" and someone who has been a general manager for 14 years without reaching the NBA Finals even once, rewards Harden's "concert tour" with a contract extension of more than $200 million. The definitive book on the 76ers' journey from tanking to betting the house on Harden has yet to be written, but it most assuredly is not going to be the book that is inaccurately but amusingly titled Tanking to the Top. If Morey writes that nine figure check to Harden then "Tanking to Oblivion and Overpaying to the Bottom: How 'Advanced Basketball Statistics' Ruined the 76ers" would be a good book title.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey, Victor Oladipo

posted by David Friedman @ 11:43 PM

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Harden's "Concert Tour" Continues as Heat Rout 76ers

"We on award tour with Muhammad, my man/Going each and every place with the mic in their hand/New York, NJ, N.C., VA."--A Tribe Called Quest, "Award Tour"

Jalen Rose had the line of the season when he said that James Harden's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates. Every time I watch Harden play now, I think of the classic A Tribe Called Quest song "Award Tour," but I insert my own lyrics as if Harden is the lead singer:

"We on award tour with Daryl Morey, my man/Going each and every place shooting bricks with either hand/Philly, Toronto, Miami."  

Harden's "concert tour" rolled into Miami for a May 13 tour date as he shot 5-13 from the field in Miami's 106-92 game one second round win versus his Philadelphia 76ers. Harden finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers. Even with Joel Embiid out of the lineup because of a concussion and a fractured orbital bone, Harden was no better than the third best player on his team. Tobias Harris scored a game-high 27 points on 11-18 field goal shooting. As Shaquille O'Neal said during TNT's halftime show, Harris has the "triple green light" now because "He's the go-to guy." Harris showed once again that he can attack off of the dribble, make jumpers, and create plays for his teammates. Tyrese Maxey did not have a great game, but he kept attacking, and he finished with 19 points on 6-15 field goal shooting. In contrast, Harden--who is angling for a contract extension worth hundreds of millions of dollars and that would pay him past his 38th birthday--shot 1-4 from the field in the second half as the 76ers went from enjoying a 52-51 halftime lead to losing by double digits.

The Heat, playing without injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and with a sore-kneed Jimmy Butler, did not play their best game, but they pulled away in the fourth quarter as Harden watched and waited for someone to save the day. Tyler Herro led the Heat with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo, who should have received more opportunities in the absence of Embiid, finished with 24 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, plus 12 rebounds and four assists. Butler had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he shot just 5-16 from the field while looking nothing like the player who averaged more than 30 ppg in the first four games of the first round versus Atlanta before sitting out game five due to a knee injury.

Remember, when this season began we were told that Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving formed the nucleus of what could be the greatest offense ever. That is just another example of the extent to which many media members are deeply invested in the "James Harden is an all-time great" narrative; they voted him to the All-NBA First Team when he was not one of the league's top two guards, they gave him an MVP, and they even put him on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. These media members are never going to admit that they were wrong about Harden, so the new narrative emerging recently is that Harden--who is just 32 years old--has lost a step and does not have the skills that he supposedly used to have. However, anyone who has followed Harden for his entire career can apply the eye test and understand that Harden now is the same player that he has been ever since he fled Oklahoma City to be the number one option in Houston. For years, he relied on (1) being rewarded with free throw attempts after plowing into defenders, (2) traveling on his so-called "step back" move to gain space to shoot three pointers, and (3) being rewarded with three free throw attempts after falling to the ground like an assassination victim during his three point field goal attempts. In short, he did not master basketball but rather he mastered "flop and flail." This enabled Harden to "efficiently" score 25-30 points during games when he shot 5-17 from the field but made 15 or 20 free throws. Also, this made defenders so wary of being called for fouls that many coaches--most notably Gregg Popovich--instructed their players to guard Harden with their hands behind their backs. Obviously, it was a lot easier for Harden to make shots when his opponents literally played with their hands tied. It is telling that Harden's field goal percentage was never very good even during the years when defenders often avoided contesting his shots.

Harden has not slowed down, but the game has caught up with him. For example, consider what happened at the 6:11 mark of the first quarter of tonight's game: Harden made the exact same move at the exact same speed that he has done for a decade, but this time Harden was correctly whistled for a charge after he plowed into P.J. Tucker. The NBA has--finally--decided to officiate correctly. Now, when Harden has a "concert tour" date like his 5-13 performance versus Miami he ends up with 16 points instead of 30. 

It's not too late for media members to admit that they were wrong about Harden--well, actually, it is a bit late, unless the league is going to retroactively reallocate awards to their rightful recipients. Adrian Dantley, who drew legitimate foul calls and had a real--i.e., non-traveling--step back move should have been on the 75th Anniversary Team (as should have Chris Bosh, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady). Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, and Damian Lillard are other overrated active players who should not have made the 75th Anniversary Team. Maybe a new generation of media members will do better in 25 years when the 100th Anniversary Team is selected. 

The only "award" on Harden's "concert tour" should be "Most Overrated MVP" ever. This is not just about one game; anyone who has ever read my work knows better than to even dare suggest that I would base an overall evaluation of any player on his performance in just one game--even a game seven. For many years, I have criticized the high variance style favored by Daryl Morey and James Harden. Harden is who I said he was. Maybe someday more people will understand that truth, and adjust their historical rankings accordingly to give deserved credit to the players who were truly great.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 11:24 PM

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Miami Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#1 Miami (53-29) vs. #4 Philadelphia (51-31)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Philadelphia can win if…Joel Embiid dominates the paint at both ends of the court. Embiid averaged 26.2 ppg on .520 field goal shooting during Philadelphia's 4-2 first round series win versus Toronto, but those numbers are deceptive. Embiid is often injured and/or not in peak condition during the postseason, and 2022 is no exception: Embiid suffered torn ligaments in his right thumb during game three, and he has not been the same player in his last three games, averaging 24.7 ppg while shooting .467 or worse from the field in two of those three games. The 76ers just announced that Embiid suffered a right orbital fracture and mild concussion after receiving an elbow from Pascal Siakam late in game six. Embiid's current status is "out indefinitely," and without him the 76ers have no chance to win this series.

This season, Embiid won his first scoring title (30.6 ppg). If Embiid had stayed healthy and if he could have averaged at least 30 ppg with .550+ field goal shooting while also protecting the paint defensively, then this could have been a competitive series, but a right orbital fracture is a series-ending injury, which means that it will also be a season-ending injury.

During the first round, Tyrese Maxey emerged as the 76ers' second scoring option, averaging 21.3 ppg with excellent shooting splits (.511/.405/.950). He was the difference in the series, most notably during times when Embiid was not dominant. Maxey benefits from the defensive attention that Embiid attracts, but he is also capable of creating his own shot, particularly in transition. If Maxey had played at his normal level then the series would have at least gone the distance, and quite possibly the final outcome would have been different.

Tobias Harris has struggled a bit since the 76ers acquired James Harden, but he had a very good series versus Toronto (17.8 ppg, 9.5 rpg, shooting splits of .519/.433/.875).

Whether by accident, design, or necessity, the 76ers figured out the truth of what I have said about James Harden for the past decade: he cannot be the best player on a championship contender, and it is not clear if he can be the second best player on a championship contender. Harden ranked third on the 76ers in scoring (19.0 ppg) and minutes (40.5 mpg) in the first round. He led the team in assists (10.2 apg).

The notion that Embiid and Harden form a duo that should be compared with the 76ers' legendary Moses Malone-Julius Erving duo or with the more recent legendary Shaquille O'Neal-Kobe Bryant duo is laughable. Bryant, Erving, and O'Neal are each Pantheon level players, while Malone is not far below Pantheon level (and he played at a Pantheon level in the first year that he partnered with Erving, winning the 1983 season MVP and the 1983 Finals MVP). Embiid is a talented player who has yet to advance past the second round of the playoffs. Harden has been overrated for most of his career, and he has choked in most of his biggest playoff moments. The 2022 76ers lost more games in the first round to an injury-depleted Toronto team than the Malone-Erving 76ers lost during their entire 1983 championship run.

The narrative that is gathering currency now is that Harden is over the hill. Harden is 32 years old and he averaged 37.2 mpg this season. He is not old, and there is no indication that he is injured. The reality is that his game depended to a significant extent on "flop and flail," so the NBA's belated crackdown on that nonsense has rendered much of Harden's game ineffective: he can no longer rely on being bailed out on either his drives or his three pointers, which means (1) he is forced to make shots and (2) defenders can guard him closely without fear of being whistled for phantom fouls. No, Harden has not lost a step--he is who we (or at least I) thought he was! Unless the NBA reinstates "flop and flail," Harden's "concert tour" field goal percentages are not going to improve. What about game six versus Toronto? Harden shot 7-12 (.583) from the field. Does that presage a return of "Houston MVP" Harden? I doubt it. That is just the third time in his past nine playoff games that he shot at least .500 from the field. In 143 career playoff games, his field goal percentage is .427. He shot .405 from the field versus Toronto, and it will be surprising if he shoots much better than that versus a Miami team that is more talented and deeper than Toronto.

It will be revealing to see how Harden performs versus Miami without Embiid. Harden will have every opportunity to prove that he is as great as so many people have proclaimed him to be.

Miami will win because…the Heat's elite defense will stifle Philadelphia's offense. The Heat lack size, but during the regular season they ranked fourth in points allowed and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. The Heat held the Atlanta Hawks to 97.4 ppg on .440 field goal shooting during a 4-1 first round series win, and the Heat limited Trae Young to 15.4 ppg on .319 field goal shooting. During the regular season, Young averaged 28.4 ppg on career-high .460 field goal shooting. Embiid is a much better player than Young, but even in the unlikely event that he comes back from the orbital fracture the Heat will make him work for his points, and the Heat will not concede nearly as many wide open shots to his teammates as short-handed Toronto did.

Miami does not have a great offense, but the Heat will get enough scoring from Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo to more than keep pace with the 76ers. Victor Oladipo averaged 14.5 ppg in two games versus Atlanta, and he could provide a big boost if he is healthy enough to become a full-fledged member of the rotation. Kyle Lowry suffered a hamstring injury during game three that caused him to miss the rest of that game plus games four and five. His healthy return to action would help the Heat at both ends of the court, but the Heat have enough talent and depth to beat the 76ers even without him.

The caveat is that this preview is written with the assumption that Butler will return to action when the series begins. Butler sat out game five versus Atlanta due to knee soreness, but there is no indication that he is seriously injured. If he is limited by injury then it will be more difficult for the Heat to win this series, particularly if Lowry is also limited or out of the lineup.

Other things to consider: The Heat may be flying under the radar more than any other number one seeded team in recent memory. The early season championship talk focused on the Brooklyn Nets and L.A. Lakers, and more recent championship conversation has centered on the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and Boston Celtics, but the Heat not only finished first in the Eastern Conference but they dismantled an Atlanta team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals last year. 

Butler's leadership style may rub some people the wrong way, but all of the evidence indicates that (1) he is focused on team success and (2) he makes a significant contribution to team success at both ends of the court. His numbers are sometimes not quite as gaudy as the numbers posted by MVP candidates, but he is capable of having a similar impact, as he demonstrated during Miami's 2020 run to the NBA Finals and during the Atlanta series (30.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 5.3 apg, 2.8 spg, shooting splits of .543/.438/.794). 

Butler averaged 19.4 ppg for the 76ers in the 2019 playoffs but the 76ers traded him to Miami after he spent just one season with Philadelphia. Butler then led the Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals, while the 76ers have yet to get past the second round during the "Process" era that has most assuredly not resulted in "tanking to the top." Miami and Philadelphia have vastly different roster construction philosophies. The Heat focus on being the best team that they can be each season, while the 76ers spent several years tanking even though the evidence shows that tanking does not work. 

I would have predicted a six game Miami win if Embiid were available for the entire series, and I am tempted to predict a Miami sweep if Embiid misses the entire series, but Miami winning in five games is my pick.

Labels: Bam Adebayo, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyler Herro, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 9:00 PM

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Butler Did It: Heat Cool Off Lakers, 115-104

"You're in trouble." That seems like an odd thing to say when you are trailing 2-1 in the NBA Finals, but Jimmy Butler can say whatever he wants after scoring 40 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, passing for 13 assists, swiping two steals, blocking two shots and outdueling LeBron James at both ends of the court to lead the Miami Heat to a 115-104 victory over the L.A. Lakers in game three. Butler shot 14-20 from the field, and had a +20 plus/minus number while playing 45 minutes. It should be noted that Butler clarified after the game that his choice words were not idle trash talk, but rather a response to those same words being spoken to him by James during the first quarter.

Butler led both teams in scoring, rebounding, and assists, and no player exceeded his numbers for steals or blocked shots. It is not an exaggeration to call this one of the most dominant all-around single-game performances in NBA Finals history; players such as Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Moses Malone, and Shaquille O'Neal had games in which they were more dominant in terms of scoring and/or rebounding, but few players have been as dominant across the board.

The Heat were once again without the services of injured All-Star center Bam Adebayo and injured former All-Star guard Goran Dragic, but the Heat made no excuses and looked like a team trying to win a championship, not a team just trying to avoid being swept. 

Tyler Herro struggled with his shot (6-18 field goal shooting) but he finished with 17 points, and Kelly Olynyk contributed 17 points plus seven rebounds in 31 minutes off of the bench as the de facto replacement for Adebayo--Meyers Leonard started at center for the second game in a row, but once again he played minimal minutes (13 in game three, nine in game two). Duncan Robinson (13 points) and Jae Crowder (12 points) also scored in double figures, but Butler was the story: he scored or assisted on 73 points, tied with two Jerry West performances for the second highest such single game total ever in the NBA Finals, trailing only Walt Frazier's 74 points (36 points scored plus 19 assists for another 38 points) in his legendary performance in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals. Of course Butler--and every other post-1979 player--has the advantage of being able to assist on three point shots, an option not available to West, Frazier, and other great players from the NBA's pre-three point shot era.

LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (25 points), rebounds (10), assists (eight), and turnovers (eight). He shot 9-16 from the field. Other than the turnovers, his stat line looks great--but the turnovers matter, and most of them were, in tennis parlance, unforced errors. With rare exceptions, James always has great stat lines, and that is a tribute to his greatness and consistency--but it also shows how misleading individual stat lines can be. His career Finals statistics are incredible, and yet he is not only just 3-6 in the Finals but a host of players have been the best player on the court during various Finals games in which James appeared, including Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Kawhi Leonard. Add Jimmy Butler to that list. James has won three Finals MVPs, but he has also watched Parker, Nowitzki, Leonard, Andre Iguodala, and Durant (twice) win Finals MVPs at his expense. 

Anthony Davis had a forgettable game: 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, five rebounds, three assists, two steals, five turnovers, and a -26 plus/minus number. Davis picked up three first half fouls, and at halftime he had just five points and one rebound along with five turnovers. He played better in the second half, but not nearly well enough for a player with his skill set who enjoys a significant matchup advantage against the Heat sans Adebayo.

Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma each scored 19 points on 6-13 field goal shooting. Rajon Rondo's individual stat line was underwhelming (four points on 2-8 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, five assists), but his +6 plus/minus number reflects how well the Lakers performed during his 28 minutes. The Lakers' bench did their jobs, and no bench player had a negative plus/minus rating. 

The Heat's starters dominated the Lakers' starters, outscoring them 89-51. James lost his individual matchup versus Butler, and Davis barely outscored Duncan Robinson while being outscored by rookie Tyler Herro. If the Lakers win this series in five, six or even seven games, game three will be forgiven if not totally forgotten--but if this performance is the turning point in the series then that does not reflect well on James or Davis.

While media members spent the pregame show preparing James' coronation and talking about where he should be placed on basketball's proverbial Mt. Rushmore, the Heat demonstrated that they will not submit meekly. The Heat jumped out to a 16-8 lead as the Lakers committed five early turnovers. The Lakers trimmed the deficit to three, 26-23, by the end of the first stanza. The Heat hit seven of their first eight field goal attempts, but then made just four of their next 20 shots, and the Lakers took the lead, 32-30, on Davis' three pointer, his first made field goal of the game. 

Butler had 19 points in the first half--including 11 in the second quarter--plus six rebounds and six assists to lift Miami to a 58-54 halftime lead. He scored 11 points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the third quarter, and the Heat were up 85-80 with 12 minutes to go. James asserted himself early in the fourth quarter, scoring or assisting on the Lakers' first 11 points. Rondo's driving layup capped an 8-0 run, and put the Lakers ahead, 91-89. Butler reasserted control, dribbling the ball up the court for nearly every Heat possession, and making sure that he either scored or created a quality shot for a teammate. Butler also accepted the challenge of guarding James. The Heat outscored the Lakers 26-13 down the stretch.

The game ended in fitting and symbolic fashion, with James leading the Lakers off of the court before the final buzzer; the referees had to summon five Lakers back on to the court for the final inbounds play. 

The Miami Heat culture is refreshing: no tanking, no quitting, no excuses, no complaining. Just play ball, and play hard for 48 minutes. 

The analytics and the smart money say that the Lakers will win this series. I have never overreacted to one game, and I will not overreact now--but it is great to see a team and a leader embrace challenges instead of whining about them.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler, Kelly Olynyk, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:05 AM

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Davis and James Dominate as Lakers Take 2-0 Lead

Game two of the NBA Finals looked like a five on five version of an older, bigger brother dominating his younger, smaller brother in a backyard or a driveway. Anthony Davis and LeBron James combined for 65 points and 23 rebounds as the L.A. Lakers won 124-114 over the Miami Heat to take a 2-0 lead. The Lakers outrebounded the Heat 44-37, and the Lakers grabbed 16 offensive rebounds. The Lakers shot .505 from the field overall, including .660 on two point field goals--and most of those two point field goals were attempted in the paint as the Lakers shredded the Heat's zone defense. The Lakers scored nearly every time that they attacked the middle of the zone or crept in on the baseline, causing the Heat to collapse their defense in the paint and resulting in the Lakers setting a Finals single game record by attempting 47 three pointers. Unlike the Houston Rockets, the Lakers set up their three pointers by attacking the paint, as opposed to just jacking up long range shots regardless of what the defense is doing.

Davis finished with 32 points and 14 rebounds while shooting 15-20 from the field; he had eight offensive rebounds, and he made 14 of his first 16 field goal attempts. Davis is the fifth player to score at least 30 points in each of his first two NBA Finals games, joining Hal Greer (1967), Rick Barry (1967), Michael Jordan (1991), and Kevin Durant (2012). James had 32 points, nine rebounds, nine assists, and no turnovers; he shot 14-25 from the field.

While Davis and James led the way, the contributions of the Lakers' other two likely future Hall of Famers should not be overlooked. Rajon Rondo scored 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, and he led the Lakers with 10 assists. Dwight Howard started at center, and he set the tone early with six quick points in the paint on 3-3 field goal shooting.

The Heat were without the services of two starters: All-Star center Bam Adebayo, and former All-Star guard Goran Dragic. ABC commentators Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson correctly pointed out moments and situations when the Heat could have played harder or hustled more--and Udonis Haslem delivered that message with great emphasis during a third quarter timeout--but the brutal reality is that size combined with talent/athleticism can wear a team down not only physically but also mentally. ESPN's Richard Jefferson suggested that the Heat played hard enough and well enough that they likely would have won if Adebayo had been available; the Heat just did not have enough size or enough depth to contend with the Lakers.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 25 points and 13 assists. He also had eight rebounds while playing 45 minutes. He matched James play for play, and the only criticism that one could make is that perhaps Butler should have looked for his shot more often as opposed to driving with the intent to pass--but Butler has never been a 30 ppg scorer or a player who regularly explodes for 40 or 50 points, so it is not in his nature to play that way. Butler's ability to lift his teammates to another level is very evident, and explains why his previous teams improved when he arrived only to regress after he left. We are learning a lot not only about Butler, but also about his previous teammates who he criticized and/or who criticized him: I would take Butler all day any day over any of those guys, even though several of them are bigger and/or more athletically gifted. As Mike Singletary once said, "I want winners."

Prior to the game, ESPN's Rachel Nichols asked Butler how his ankle--which he injured in game one--feels, and he replied, "Nobody cares." Butler refused to make excuses or change his expectations for team success. After the game, Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra delivered a similar message, stating that in life if you want something badly enough then you figure out what you have to do to get it. There are players who will say that they do not make excuses, but then those same players will tell you in detail about their injuries; LeBron James has done that throughout his career, dating all the way back to his mysterious elbow injury that did not stop him from shooting half court shots during pre-game warmups in the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals.

Kelly Olynyk filled in admirably for Adebayo, coming off the bench to score 24 points and snare nine rebounds in 37 minutes. Tyler Herro bounced back from a subpar game one to score 17 points and grab seven rebounds. The Heat dusted off rookie Kendrick Nunn--a major contributor during the regular season who fell out of the playoff rotation prior to Dragic's injury--and he added 13 points. However, the Heat just do not have enough talent or depth to beat the Lakers without Adebayo and Dragic.

The Lakers attacked the paint from the start of the game, and the Heat had no answers. The Lakers led by as much as 17 points in the first half, and they were up 68-54 at halftime. The Lakers shot .565 from the field in the first half, including 17-20 (.850) on two point shots. Those shooting percentages look like Bill Walton's in the 1973 NCAA Championship Game or Villanova's in the 1985 NCAA Championship Game, not like anything one would expect to see in the NBA Finals. In the first half the Lakers also set the Finals record for most three pointers attempted in a half (27). Most Lakers' possessions ended with Davis or James playing bully ball in the paint, or someone attempting a wide open three pointer.

The Lakers maintained a double digit lead for most of the second half, though the Heat cut the margin to 100-91 late in the third quarter after Herro sank a pair of free throws. This game was more competitive than game one but at no time did the outcome of the game appear to be in doubt. 

If Adebayo can return for game three and supply paint presence at both ends of the court, then perhaps the Heat still have a chance to make this a series. Otherwise, the Lakers will cruise to a sweep and the only question will be whether the media select Davis or James as the Finals MVP.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard, Jimmy Butler, Kelly Olynyk, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Rajon Rondo, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 AM

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