20 Second Timeout

Celtics Sweep Pacers to Earn Second NBA Finals Appearance in Three Years

The Boston Celtics defeated the Indiana Pacers 105-102 to sweep the Eastern Conference Finals and return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three years. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 29 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, and his overall excellence during this series earned him the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. His teammate Jayson Tatum won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP in 2022, and Jimmy Butler received the honor last year. Tatum was an MVP candidate in this series as well, and he had 26 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists in the series-clincher. As usual, Jrue Holiday (17 points, nine rebounds) and Derrick White (16 points, four rebounds, four assists, five steals) made strong contributions at both ends of the court. White's three pointer with 45 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot and the final points in the series. The Celtics are playing so well that it is easy to forget that they are missing one of their top players, injured former All-Star Kristaps Porzingis.

Playing without injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton for the second straight game, the Pacers fought until the end. Andrew Nembhard posted Halibuton-like numbers, leading the team in scoring (24 points) and assists (game-high 10). Pascal Siakam added 19 points and a team-high 10 rebounds, and T.J. McConnell added 15 points off of the bench, but the Pacers needed more than eight points and four rebounds from Myles Turner.

The Celtics led 58-57 at halftime, but fell behind by as many as six points in the third quarter, and trailed 83-80 heading into the final stanza. After Nembhard's free throw pushed the margin to nine (94-85) at the 8:57 mark of the fourth quarter, it looked for a moment like the Pacers might extend the series, but the Celtics chipped away until White drilled the game-winner on a drive and kick by Brown. Three of the four games in this series were close at the end, but the Celtics proved their superiority by winning all three of those games.

It is easy to knock the Celtics for a variety of real and imagined reasons--and people will continue to do so at least until the Celtics win an NBA championship--but they have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight seasons, including each of the past three, and they are now in the NBA Finals for the second time in there years. Here is the list of teams that have accomplished those feats since the Chicago Bulls' 1998 "Last Dance":

1) Detroit Pistons (reached Eastern Conference Finals 2003-08, reached NBA Finals 2004-05)

2) Golden State Warriors (reached Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals 2015-19, 22)

Yes, the Pistons capped off their run by winning the 2004 NBA championship, and the Warriors won NBA championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022--but does the failure (thus far) to win an NBA championship render all of the Celtics' other winning irrelevant? The Celtics can make that question moot by winning the NBA championship in the next few weeks, but I would argue that even if they fall short they have still been one of the most successful NBA teams of the past two decades. There are many teams that have received more hype while accomplishing a lot less. The Tatum-Brown duo has accomplished a lot more than most of the various "super teams" that have been built and then imploded in the past decade or so.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Indiana Pacers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM

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Celtics Overwhelm Pacers, Take 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals Lead

The Boston Celtics barely survived game one of the Eastern Conference Finals versus the Indiana Pacers, but in game two the Celtics demonstrated clear superiority en route to posting a 126-110 win. The Celtics did not trail in the second half, and led by as many as 20 points; they have enjoyed a 20 point lead in 47 of their 94 games (regular season and playoffs). After the game, ESPN's Tim Legler mentioned that this game highlighted the significant "talent disparity" between these teams--and that is without Kristaps Porzingis, who has missed the last eight games due to injury but may be able to return as soon as game four in this series.

In his postgame media availability session, Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle said, "The bottom of the stat sheet is ugly." Boston outscored Indiana in the paint 54-34, outrebounded Indiana 40-37, and forced 16 Indiana turnovers while committing just 10 turnovers. The Celtics attempted 37 three pointers, not the 50 that they aspire to attempt each game. If the Celtics consistently play this way then they will win the 2024 NBA championship. They don't necessarily have to match each of those numbers; they have to maintain the mindset of attacking the paint and not just chucking up the first available semi-open three pointer--which is the flawed approach that doomed Minnesota in their game one Western Conference Finals loss to Dallas. The Pacers shot 44-84 (.524) from the field but lost by double digits because the Celtics dominated the paint and the possession game. The well-worn cliche is repeated so often because it is true: offense wins games, but defense wins championships. The Celtics are a great team that can make three pointers; they are not great because they make three pointers. As long as they don't get that twisted it will be difficult to beat them.

Jaylen Brown--whose three pointer tied game one near the end of regulation to set up Boston's overtime victory--poured in a game-high 40 points on 14-27 field goal shooting, authoring an All-NBA Team caliber performance a day after the announcement that he was not selected to the 2024 All-NBA Team. Brown denied that not receiving that honor served as an extra motivation, declaring that his focus is on the fact that Boston is two wins away from going to the NBA Finals. Brown joined a select group of Celtics players who scored at least 40 points in an Eastern Conference Finals or Eastern Division Finals game; that list is topped by Sam Jones (47 points) but, surprisingly, that list does not include Larry Bird, John Havlicek, or Paul Pierce. 

Jayson Tatum started slowly with two points on 1-6 field goal shooting in the first quarter, but he finished with 23 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Derrick White added 23 points, six assists, and four rebounds. 

Jrue Holiday contributed 15 points and a game-high 10 assists. When Jrue Holiday is your team's fourth option--and he is the fifth option when Porzingis is healthy--your team is very, very talented; he was the third option for Milwaukee's 2021 championship team. 

Brown, Tatum, Holiday, and White each have good size, good speed, and good length, enabling them to have a major impact at both ends of the court while playing multiple positions. 

Pascal Siakam scored a team-high 28 points on blistering 13-17 field goal shooting, but no other Pacer scored more than 16 points or attempted more than 12 field goals. He is doing his part, but it will take more than one All-Star caliber player to slow down Boston's well-oiled machine.

The biggest story for the Pacers--which could turn into the biggest story for game three--is that Tyrese Haliburton injured his left hamstring, received treatment at halftime, and then gave it a go in the third quarter before missing the final 15:44 of the game. The Celtics led 82-71 when Haliburton left the game for good, but he had a +1 plus/minus number during the 28 minutes that he played. Haliburton's boxscore numbers were modest in this game (10 points, eight assists), but he makes the Pacers' offense go by pushing the ball up the court to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. It is difficult to picture the Pacers winning a game in this series--even at home, where they are undefeated in the 2024 playoffs--if Haliburton is out or even limited.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Indiana Pacers, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:08 AM

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Boston Avenges Game Seven Loss, While Sacramento Falls Victim to Another Stephen Curry Masterpiece

ESPN's Friday night NBA doubleheader featured a pair of rematches of 2023 playoff series. The last time the Miami Heat visited Boston, Jimmy Butler scored a game-high 28 points to lead the Heat to a 103-84 win in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals; the last time the Golden State Warriors visited Sacramento, Stephen Curry scored 50 points as the Warriors routed the Kings 120-100 in game seven of their first round playoff series.

Some things change, and some things stay the same: the Celtics flipped the script on the Heat with a 119-111 win, while the Warriors defeated the Kings 122-114.

Boston reserves only scored eight points, but that did not matter because each Boston starter scored at least 17 points, topped by Derrick White (28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting), Jaylen Brown (27 points on 11-22 field goal shooting), and Jayson Tatum (22 points on 9-22 field goal shooting). The Celtics won the rebounding battle 55-45 as Al Horford and Jrue Holiday tied for game-high honors with 10 rebounds each. 

Miami shot just 38-89 (.427) from the field as 2023 Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler scored 14 points on 3-11 field goal shooting. Tyler Herro, who missed the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals due to injury, led the Heat with 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo scored 27 points but did not shoot efficiently from the field (10-23).

The Heat jumped out to a 26-13 first quarter lead as the start of the game looked like a replay of Miami taking a 3-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals, but by the end of the first quarter Boston had trimmed the margin to 28-25. Neither team led by more than seven points again until White's three pointer at the 4:19 mark of the fourth quarter put Boston up 109-101. Kevin Love's three pointer with :59 remaining cut the Boston lead to 114-111 but then two free throws by White and a Brown three pointer closed out the scoring as Herro and Love missed long jumpers on the Heat's final two possessions.

Both teams were at full strength, but this was just game two out of 82 so how much can we learn from Boston's win? It is evident that Boston has a tremendous starting lineup, arguably the best 1-5 in the league. Boston has size at every position, and used that size to muscle the Heat by not only winning the rebounding battle decisively but also by outscoring Miami 52-36 in the paint. Miami's reserves outscored Boston's reserves 20-8, but every Heat reserve had a negative plus/minus number while every Boston reserve had a positive plus/minus number, which suggests that Boston did a good job of using a few starters with the reserves to stabilize that unit. The Heat missed Gabe Vincent, who signed with the L.A. Lakers in the offseason after making key contributions to the Heat's 2023 playoff run. The Heat need "Playoff Jimmy" to beat the Celtics, but now that the Celtics have added Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis even "Playoff Jimmy" may not be enough for the Heat to win a seven game series versus the Celtics.

Meanwhile, Stephen Curry torched the Kings with 41 points on 14-19 field goal shooting. Klay Thompson had a solid game (18 points on 7-12 field goal shooting), and the undersized Warriors only lost the rebounding battle by two (41-39) despite being without the services of the injured Draymond Green. The Warriors are starting Chris Paul at least until Green returns, and Paul had a solid game (10 points on 5-12 field goal shooting, game-high 12 assists). Paul can be a very efficient player--particularly in the regular season--but he is undersized, which means that in the playoffs he can be overpowered and he is also prone to getting injured or just being worn down. If the Warriors are going to continue to trot out a starting five this small then opposing teams must make a concerted effort to attack the Warriors in the paint, because otherwise the Warriors will exploit their advantages in terms of range shooting and having multiple skilled ballhandlers.

De'Aaron Fox nearly matched Curry shot for shot, finishing with 39 points on 14-28 field goal shooting, including 22 fourth quarter points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Domantas Sabonis had a strong game (19 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, game-high 18 rebounds, team-high seven assists) but the Kings shot just 41-94 (.436) from the field after ranking first in the league in scoring (120.7 ppg) and second in the league in field goal percentage (.494) last season; the combination of scoring much less efficiently than usual without demonstrating any improvement defensively was too much for the Kings to overcome.

The first quarter was tightly contested, and the Kings led 29-24 entering the second quarter. The Kings pushed their advantage to 11 three different times only to watch the Warriors take a 60-57 lead by halftime. Jalen Rose used to quip that the "third quarter Warriors" were the NBA's 31st team, and the Warriors lived up to that moniker in this game, exploding for 39 third quarter points and leading by as much as 18 points before settling for a 99-84 lead heading into the fourth quarter. The Warriors still led by 15 at the 3:42 mark of the fourth quarter but on their next five possessions they had four turnovers and a missed Andrew Wiggins three pointer. The Kings exploited those empty possessions to cut the lead to 117-112 before Curry hit the "night, night" three pointer with 43 seconds remaining. It is worth noting that Paul--who was brought in to stabilize the Warriors and curb their tendency to be sloppy with the ball--was on the court while the Warriors collapsed, and he "contributed" one turnover and one foul during that time. The Kings missed three treys and a free throw during that sequence, so they had chances to tie the game or even take the lead.

The 1-1 Warriors are scrappy and as long as they have a highly productive Curry they will be competitive, but their small lineup is unlikely to be successful over the course of an 82 game regular season and what they hope will be an extended playoff run. It will be interesting to see if Coach Steve Kerr moves Paul to the bench after Green returns; that would be the most logical move, even though Paul has already bristled at the idea of not being a starter.

The 1-1 Kings' poor shooting versus the Warriors is an aberration, but their shoddy defense--the Warriors shot 48-87 (.552) from the field--is concerning. Mike Brown is a defensive-minded coach, but the Kings are not a defensive-minded team and that must change in order for the Kings to become a legit championship contender.

Labels: Boston Celtics, De'Aaron Fox, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 9:55 AM

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Celtics Prove to be Road Warriors, Rally from 15 Point Deficit to Beat Golden State

Stephen Curry had his way early, but he and his teammates disappeared late as the Boston Celtics outscored the Golden State Warriors 40-16 in the fourth quarter to win game one of the NBA Finals, 120-108. The Celtics tied the NBA Finals record for point differential in a quarter. Al Horford led the Celtics with 26 points on 9-12 field goal shooting, including 6-8 from three point range, and he had 11 fourth quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting. Jaylen Brown added 24 points on 10-23 field goal shooting, and he initiated the Celtics' fourth quarter rally, finishing with 10 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting. Derrick White provided a major lift off of the bench with 21 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Marcus Smart played a very efficient game (18 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, five rebounds, four assists, no turnovers in 30 minutes). Jayson Tatum struggled with his shot (12 points on 3-17 field goal shooting) but he had a game-high 13 assists, repeatedly finding open teammates when the Warriors trapped him.

The NBA is often a first quarter league, but this series may be a fourth quarter series as the Celtics use their size and physicality to wear down the Warriors. Curry scored 21 points on 7-9 field goal shooting in the first quarter, but the Warriors only led 32-28 after the first 12 minutes. Curry scored 13 points on 5-16 field goal shooting the rest of the way, and he was invisible in the fourth quarter (four points on 2-6 field goal shooting) as his Warriors lost home court advantage. Curry's game-high 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting may look impressive, but he was not the best player on the court when it mattered most, and we have seen this movie many times before with Curry. For example, in the 2021 Play-In Tournament, Curry had a big game versus the L.A. Lakers but he faded down the stretch, and I wrote the following:

Remember all of the foolish talk a couple years ago about how much better Golden State's offense supposedly was with Kevin Durant out of the lineup? Do you think that Durant would have gotten off a shot in the final minute of this game? We already know the answer, because we have seen Durant dribble the ball up the court in the NBA Finals, and hit a pressure shot over James en route to outplaying James, winning a championship, and earning the Finals MVP. 

Curry is a great player. He had a game-high 37 points on 12-23 field goal shooting--but a great 6-3 player will never be more valuable than a great player who is taller, bigger, and stronger. It is baffling that anyone would think that Curry, as great as he is, is a more valuable basketball player than Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo this season, or that in previous seasons Curry was more valuable than players like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and Kevin Durant when those players were healthy enough to play most of the regular season games.

Curry is a great player, and he put up great numbers in game one, but he can't carry a team to a title against a physical, tough defensive team. It also must be noted that Boston's first quarter defense against him was uncharacteristically horrific, as the Celtics repeatedly conceded wide open three pointers to Curry; once the Celtics stopped blowing defensive assignments and started using their size against Curry, he had no answer. I would not be surprised if this 34 point game ends up being his top scoring performance in the 2022 NBA Finals; at the very least, if he scores 34 points again he will not do it by launching wide open shots.

Even with Curry scoring 34 points, the Celtics held the Warriors below 110 points, and that 105-110 point range is the target that I predicted Boston can achieve defensively. Andrew Wiggins had a solid game (20 points on 8-15 field goal shooting), but Klay Thompson (15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting) and Jordan Poole (nine points on 2-7 field goal shooting) were non-factors. The Celtics are more than happy to give up open shots to Draymond Green (four points on 2-12 field goal shooting) and Otto Porter Jr., who scored 12 points on 4-5 field goal shooting but also had a -18 plus/minus number. Green and Porter are open by design; Curry was open in the first quarter by accident.

This was a game of runs, including 33-16 for Golden State in the third quarter to build an 87-72 lead, but the defining run was 40-13 for Boston in the fourth quarter before Golden State hit a meaningless three pointer. The Celtics made 10 straight field goals during their big run.

After the game, Green noted that Horford, Smart, and White shot 15-23 from three point range. He acknowledged that they are good shooters, but then he shrugged as if to say, "That won't happen again." Green may be right, but we can also be confident that Tatum will not shoot this poorly again the rest of the series, and we can be confident that if the Warriors close out on the three point shooters then they will get murdered in the paint; many of Boston's three point shots came after the Celtics attacked the paint, collapsed the defense, and then passed to open shooters. The Celtics can get into the paint almost at will versus the Warriors, and that is unlikely to change. If the Warriors hug the three point shooters too closely, then they will be giving up a parade of dunks and layups.

The Warriors' post-game narrative was that they outplayed the Celtics for three quarters but then just lost the fourth quarter. The reality is that the Warriors had a couple hot streaks in the first and third quarters, but they trailed 56-54 at halftime, and they were not able to put pressure on the Celtics. Tatum passed the ball well, but he was pressing every time he shot, and after he settles down he will be a major matchup problem. In other words, the things that the Celtics did well are more likely sustainable than the things that the Warriors did well.

After the game, it was fascinating watching and listening to the "experts" express puzzlement about this outcome; they have overrated Curry and the Warriors to such an extent that they are not able to objectively analyze the matchups. The series is not over after one game, but this one game is not surprising to anyone who has watched these teams play and understands how they match up.

Labels: Al Horford, Boston Celtics, Derrick White, Golden State Warriors, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 12:54 AM

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