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2024-25 Western Conference Preview

The Dallas Mavericks flipped the script after their 2022-23 late season collapse to reach the 2024 NBA Finals as the Western Conference's fifth seeded team. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving proved to be a dynamic duo, while midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington made a huge difference. Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II formed an excellent one-two punch in the paint.

The Oklahoma City Thunder posted the Western Conference's best record last season before falling to the Mavericks 4-2 in the second round. I hesitate to pick the Thunder as the Western Conference favorite for two reasons: (1) The Thunder tanked for two seasons (22-50 record in 2021-22, 24-58 record in 2022-23), and there is a lot of evidence that tanking does not work; (2) even after the acquisition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are still a small team that could be pushed around in the paint.

After winning the 2023 NBA title, the Denver Nuggets have lost some key rotation players--including Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--and it has become fashionable to discount them as legitimate championship contenders. However, any team with a healthy Nikola Jokic is a serious threat, and I expect Russell Westbrook to thrive on a team that has a more serious approach than the teams for which he recently played.

The Minnesota Timberwolves did not rest on their laurels after making their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2004; they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. It will be interesting to see if Randle can stay healthy and accept a second option role behind Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo adds range shooting and toughness.

Although the Western Conference is very deep, there is a separation between the top four teams and the rest of the very good teams. The 2025 Western Conference Finals will likely feature two of the four teams mentioned above.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a wondrous offensive player who will never be a defensive stopper but who--like previous Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki--is learning how to avoid being a liability on the less glamorous side of the court. Last season, Doncic won his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 33.9 ppg while also setting career highs in assists (9.8 apg, second in the league), three point field goal percentage (.382), and triple doubles (21). Much like his Coach Jason Kidd used to be, Doncic is an elite rebounder (9.2 rpg last season) who can get the ball off of the defensive glass and go. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team for the fifth straight year, and he finished third in regular season MVP voting. Injuries limited him at times during Dallas' long playoff run, but he still averaged 28.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 8.1 apg during the postseason. In his first NBA Finals, Doncic produced 29.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, and 5.6 apg, but he also had nearly as many turnovers (23) as assists (28).

Kyrie Irving embraced the second option role and was highly productive, averaging 25.6 ppg, 5.2 apg, and 5.0 rpg. His production dipped during the playoffs (22.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.7 rpg), but the Mavericks would not have reached the NBA Finals without his timely contributions.

The difference between the 2024 Mavericks and the 2023 Mavericks was the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Gafford teamed with rookie Dereck Lively II to provide significant paint presence at both ends of the court. Gafford led the Mavericks in blocked shots in the regular season (1.9 bpg) and the playoffs (1.5 bpg). Washington ranked third on the team in playoff scoring (13.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg).

The main thing that the Mavericks lacked during the NBA Finals was a reliable outside shooting option to take the pressure off of Doncic and Irving. Enter Klay Thompson, who the Mavericks signed away from Golden State. Thompson is not the defensive standout that he used to be, but he can still spot up in the corner and drain three pointers.

The Mavericks' 2024 playoff run may look fluky because they the Mavericks were only the fifth seed, but if they stay healthy then they will likely earn a much higher seed with Gafford and Washington in the fold for all 82 games.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder may eventually be the first tanking team to legitimately contend for an NBA title. Last season they clinched the number one seed in the Western Conference (on tiebreaks) with a 57-25 record before losing to the underdog Mavericks in the second round. The Thunder attempted to address their lack of size by signing former Knick Isaiah Hartenstein, who joins his sixth team in seven NBA seasons. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the centerpiece of Oklahoma City's attack. He finished second in regular season MVP voting after averaging 30.1 ppg (third in the league), 6.2 apg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.0 spg (second in the league). Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second straight All-NBA First Team selection, and he came in seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting. At 26, he is the elder statesman in a core rotation that includes five players who are 25 or younger. 

The Thunder traded Josh Giddey, who fell out of the rotation during the playoffs, to Chicago for Alex Caruso, who has earned consecutive All-Defensive Team selections after being a member of the Lakers' 2020 championship team. 

I am skeptical of the long term prospects of teams that tanked, but there is no denying that this is a very good team.

3) Denver Nuggets: As long as the Nuggets have prime Nikola Jokic they will be dangerous; in the 2024 Olympics, Jokic led a Serbian squad with just three other players with NBA experience to the brink of a win versus a Team USA squad stacked with future Hall of Famers, including four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Yes, the NBA is different from FIBA, but Jokic's triple threat ability to score, rebound, and pass enables him to have a significant impact any time he steps on the court.

The Nuggets have reason to be concerned about Jamal Murray, who did not look great for Canada during the Olympics. He has not played in more than 65 regular season games since 2019--but if Murray is healthy and productive then the Nuggets have as good of a one-two punch as any team.

Signing Russell Westbrook is an under the radar move that could pay huge dividends for a team that has lost some key rotation players (Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) since winning the 2023 NBA title. Westbrook is a favorite target for some media members, but he is a perfect fit for this team because the Nuggets are a no-nonsense squad with a championship mindset.

4) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves have only won a playoff series in two years--2004 and 2024--and both times they reached the Western Conference Finals before being eliminated. It would have been understandable to just run it back and try to win two more playoff series, but instead the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The deal not only gives the Timberwolves more frontcourt flexibility and versatility but it also relieves a looming salary cap issue that could have become problematic by the end of Towns' huge contract. 

Of course, fans do not care about the salary cap or the dreaded "second apron" restrictions affecting teams that exceed the salary cap; fans care about winning games and winning championships. Did the blockbuster deal bring the Timberwolves closer to making their first NBA Finals appearance? The Timberwolves used their size to overpower the defending champion Nuggets in the second round; now they are smaller, but also quicker and deeper. Randle is a talented wild card: he is a three-time All-Star and two-time member of the All-NBA Team, but he owns a .344 playoff career field goal percentage.

I can't say for sure at this point that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I will be surprised if it made them better, and I don't expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals this season.

5) Phoenix Suns: Since losing in the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns have fired two coaches and remade their roster, but they have only won two playoff series in the past three years. Kevin Durant is still a very productive player at age 36, but since he left Golden State in 2019 he has a 2-4 playoff series record. The Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio was supposed to be a "super team," but last season Beal missed 29 games, and Booker missed 14 games. 

On paper, the Suns look very good, but the on court reality is that when the playoffs roll around the Suns tend to lack the necessary health and cohesion to beat elite teams in a seven game series.

6) Houston Rockets: In his first year with Houston, Coach Ime Udoka transformed the Rockets from a 22-60 doormat to a 41-41 team on the rise. Yes, the Rockets improved their roster by adding veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but in a vacuum those two players are not worth 19 extra wins; the Rockets jumped from 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 28th in points allowed to fifth in defensive field goal percentage and 14th in points allowed. Those numbers suggest that (1) Udoka has a very good defensive system and (2) the players completely bought in to how Udoka asked them to play.

In his third season, Alperen Sengun emerged as an All-Star caliber player, averaging 21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg. Injuries forced him to miss the final 18 games of last season, but he is expected to make a healthy return for this season. 

7) Memphis Grizzlies: Last season, the Grizzlies went 6-3 in the nine games that Ja Morant played in before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. In the previous two seasons, the Grizzlies posted 56 wins and 51 wins. It is true that their roster has changed significantly since 2021, but if Morant stays healthy then this team could be very dangerous. Morant's career playoff scoring average is 27.3 ppg, and he led the NBA in playoff assists in 2022 (9.8 apg), so he is not afraid of the bright lights--he just needs to get his off court life under control, and he needs to stay healthy.

Jaren Jackson Jr. won the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he has twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2022, 2023). Last season, Jackson's scoring average jumped to a career-high 22.5 ppg, but his blocked shots average dropped from a career-high 3.0 bpg to 1.6 bpg. Rookie Zach Edey may replace some of the physical presence that Steven Adams used to provide, and Edey could either from a twin towers tandem with Jackson or their minutes could be staggered so that Memphis always has a player on the court who impacts play in the paint.

8) Sacramento Kings: After posting the Western Conference's third best record in 2022-23 (48-34), the Kings went 46-36 last season but missed the playoffs because so many other Western Conference teams improved. After the season, the Kings shipped out Harrison Barnes and acquired DeMar DeRozan in a three team deal involving the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. The 35 year old DeRozan is an excellent clutch performer, and he shows no signs of aging: he averaged 24.0 ppg last season with shooting percentages and free throw attempt rates above his career norms.

Mike Brown earned the 2023 NBA Coach of the Year award for his exceptional work with the Kings after inheriting a team that ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. Those rankings moved to 25th and 29th respectively in Brown's first year at the helm, and improved to 17th and 21st last season. A continued upward progression on defense plus DeRozan's clutch time scoring should add up to a return to postseason play for the Kings.

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.

The Western Conference is very deep, and some of the teams listed below that I do not expect to qualify for the playoffs are not that much worse than the teams listed above.

The LeBron James-Anthony Davis L.A. Lakers will always have the 2020 "bubble" title and the 2023 NBA Cup, but their resume as a duo also includes two first round losses plus missing the playoffs in 2022. James undermined Coach Darvin Ham and then hand-picked his podcast partner J.J. Redick as Ham's successor. Redick has proven that he can befriend James and give snarky answers to legitimate questions from media members, but his coaching experience is limited to coaching his son in AAU basketball; it will be interesting to see how well the combination of Redick's overt arrogance and lack of meaningful coaching experience work out for the Lakers, who pretend to have championship ambitions but in reality will be fortunate to qualify for the playoffs. There will be a lot of scrutiny regarding how the Lakers utilize second round pick Bronny James, who averaged 4.8 ppg in his only college season but has the benefit of being James' son (and being the son of the man who hired Coach Redick); as a human interest story, it is cool that LeBron and Bronny have already played together in an NBA preseason game and will, presumably, soon play together in an NBA regular season game--but Bronny has been given a roster spot instead of earning it and that is not a good thing for the Lakers in the long run.

The New Orleans Pelicans may be a sleeper pick for some people, but the Pelicans have not won a playoff series since 2018, when Anthony Davis was the team's best player. Their regular season record has improved in each of Coach Willie Green's three seasons but they have sandwiched two first round losses around a non-playoff season. The Pelicans acquired versatile guard Dejounte Murray, but they traded away centers Jonas Valanciunas and Cody Zeller and they are apparently committed to playing small and at a fast pace. They might want to look at the list of NBA champions to see how many teams won a title by playing small. In the competitive Western Conference, this undersized and injury-prone team will probably be a Play-In Tournament team that falls just short of making the playoffs.

The Golden State Warriors struggled versus the plus-.500 teams last season, which is not surprising for a team that has won just one playoff series since beating the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals--and that championship run is the only time that the Warriors advanced past the second round since Kevin Durant left the Warriors after the 2018-19 season. Breaking up the "Splash Brothers" by trading Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks marks the end of an era that saw the Warriors win four NBA titles in an eight year span. Stephen Curry is still a great player but he is not going to lead the Warriors to another title--or even a playoff berth--without a strong supporting cast around him punishing teams for trapping him while also providing a foundation of strong defense.

Free agent Paul George left the L.A. Clippers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Clippers will miss George's scoring, playmaking, and defense--but they will not miss his documented tendency to disappear during the playoffs. With Coach Ty Lue at the helm and the newly hired Jeff Van Gundy as the de facto defensive coordinator, the Clippers will enjoy a schematic game plan advantage in most games, but that will not be enough to overcome Kawhi Leonard's propensity to be injured and James Harden's propensity to choke at the most important moments.

The San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain the right to draft Victor Wembanyama, and then Wembanyama had an excellent rookie season that resulted in--drum roll, please--the Spurs winning 22 games, exactly the same number of games they won while tanking away the 2022-23 season. "Stat gurus" swear that they follow science, yet they are blind to the decades of evidence proving that tanking does not work. The Spurs signed 39 year old Chris Paul to mentor Wembanyama, because clearly a player with a 12-15 playoff series record who has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in 19 seasons is just the guy to lead the Spurs into contention. There is no doubt that Paul will be the best post-feeder on this team--an admittedly low bar to clear--and he has wisdom that can benefit young Wembanyama, but Paul would be a better fit as an assistant coach than as a point guard.

Danny Ainge described Utah's defense last season as "horrible" and conceded that the "personnel was not good enough. That's on me." The Jazz did not make any significant personnel additions in the offseason, so based on Ainge's candid assessment there is little reason to think that the Jazz will be a playoff team this season.

The tanking Portland Trail Blazers hit rock bottom last season with a 21-61 record that is the franchise's worst ever excluding years two and three after the franchise's founding in 1970. The path from this abyss just to respectability is far from clear. This is yet another example of tanking at its finest.

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Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2024 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2024 Total: 118/152 (.776)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM

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