Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years
"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season.
LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.
It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the 4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball.
The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years?
Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.
The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.
Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.
The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time.
More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.
My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM
