20 Second Timeout

Victor Wembanyama Dominates as Spurs Rout Mavericks in Cooper Flagg's First Regular Season Game

With all due respect to the other players on the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, we know the two reasons why these non-playoff teams from the 2024-25 season faced each other in ESPN's first telecast of the 2025-26 season: 2024 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and 2025 number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg. Wembanyama led both teams in scoring (40 points), rebounding (15), and blocked shots (three) as his Spurs routed the Mavericks, 125-92, and he put himself in very distinguished company in two different ways. He set the franchise record for most points scored in a season opener--and that franchise history includes Hall of Famers George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan; also, since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season, four players have had a game with at least 40 points, at least 15 rebounds, and no turnovers: Moses Malone (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (three times), Anthony Davis (three times), and Victor Wembanyama. 

The most impressive and striking thing about how Wembanyama played is that he is noticeably bigger and stronger than he was last season, enabling him to attack the paint and eschew the long jumpers that he shot too frequently during his first two seasons. Being able to make outside shots and handle the ball on the perimeter are nice bonus features for the 7-4 Wembanyama, but the foundation of his greatness must be dominating the paint at both ends of the court--that will be his pathway to winning individual awards while lifting his team from the Draft Lottery to the playoffs. 

Stephon Castle, the 2025 Rookie of the Year, had a strong game (22 points, seven rebounds, game-high six assists), and could form a powerful duo with Wembanyama--and that could be a strong trio after former All-Star De'Aaron Fox returns from injury. Spurs' rookie Dylan Harper had a solid debut with 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting.

The Spurs have enough talent, versatility, and experience to end their six year playoff drought, and this game was a good step in that direction. 

Flagg struggled to score, finishing with 10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. As a versatile forward cast into an unfamiliar role as the starting point guard, he had no assists and three turnovers. The one positive is that he grabbed 10 rebounds. Charles Barkley--part of the award-winning TNT pre-game and post-game crew transferred to ESPN--said at halftime that the Mavericks are doing Flagg a disservice by playing him at point guard. Kenny Smith agreed, and noted that at point guard Flagg is being asked to pass to players who are not as good at scoring as he is. Barkley and Smith are correct that there is a big difference between being a skilled passer--which Flagg is--and playing the point guard position. I am not a fan of trying to convert versatile forwards into guards in their rookie seasons; it did not work well with Kevin Durant, and it is unlikely to work well with anyone else. Flagg must first learn how to play his natural forward position in the NBA before he learns how to play a new position. 

There is also a big difference between playing well in Summer League or preseason and playing well in the regular season. Despite his first game struggles, Flagg will be fine, but anyone who thinks that even the best college team would have a chance against the worst NBA team should note the huge gap between the college game--where Flagg was just the consensus Player of the Year--and the NBA game; the NBA game features much better players (and coaches) than the college game. 

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring (22 points) and rebounding (13), but he shot just 7-22 from the field and was outplayed by Wembanyama both overall and when they were matched up. P.J. Washington (17 points on 7-11 field goal shooting) was the only other Dallas player who scored more than 10 points. The Mavericks obviously missed the injured Kyrie Irving--who will not play until at least January 2026--and Daniel Gafford, who has a sprained ankle but is expected to return to action soon; however, even with those two players out, the Mavericks should not have lost by 33 points at home. Starting center Dereck Lively II was a non-factor with four points, two rebounds, and five fouls in just 10 minutes of action. Future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson was invisible (10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting), and the talented but inconsistent D'Angelo Russell (six points on 1-6 field goal shooting) reminded everyone why Dallas is his fourth team in the past four seasons.

Gafford's return, switching Flagg to his natural position, and playing with more energy collectively should help the Mavericks avoid more blowout losses.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks, Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 9:46 AM

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Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament

Perhaps the NBA's media partners feel obligated to rave about how great the NBA Play-In Tournament is, but I said it in 2021 during the first NBA Play-In Tournament and I will say it again now: Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball. In the pre-Adam Silver NBA, after the regular season ended we were spared from watching sub-.500 teams battle to claim the eighth seed; a team could only earn a playoff spot by playing as hard as possible during the season to finish in the top eight, without the safety net of having a second chance to "play in" to the playoffs.

The problem with having the ninth and tenth best teams face off in high profile games is that teams with losing records did not stack up losses by accident; they are flawed squads, and when you shine a national spotlight on those squads their flaws are glaringly obvious. Instead of creating gimmicks like the NBA Cup and the Play-In Tournament to try to discourage tanking and convince teams to play hard throughout the season, the NBA should have adopted the relegation system while also not allowing the worst teams to get the top draft picks; if the worst teams each season were dropped to a lower, less prestigious, and less lucrative league instead of being rewarded with the opportunity to draft the best young players, teams would not only stop losing on purpose but they would do their best to at least win enough to avoid relegation.

In the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader of uninspired basketball, the 37-45 Miami Heat tamed the 39-43 Chicago Bulls, 109-90. I erred by picking the Bulls--who went 15-5 in their last 20 games--to not only win this game but to win on Friday night to earn the eighth seed. The Bulls clearly preferred getting an early start on their summer vacation versus fighting to get into the playoffs; the Bulls never led, trailed by as many as 17 points in the first quarter, and allowed the anemic Heat offense to shoot 41-83 (.494) from the field as boos echoed throughout the United Center. Tyler Herro scored a game-high 38 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, while Josh Giddey paced the Bulls with 25 points on 9-21 field goal shooting. The Heat led 71-47 at halftime, and they led by at least 13 points the rest of the way. I thought that the Bulls would prove to be the better team, but the reality is that neither of these teams is very good, so in a one game winner take all showdown anything can happen--anything other than competitive and entertaining basketball.

The second game of the doubleheader was no better, with the home team again looking lethargic and offering little defensive resistance as the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks--who went 7-13 in their last 20 games--blasted the 40-42 Sacramento Kings, 120-106. It is fair to say that firing Coach Mike Brown and then trading De'Aaron Fox did not make the Kings better; the Kings went 6-9 down the stretch before rolling over and playing dead at home in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Even without the services of injured All-Star Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks made light work of the Kings, leading 71-48 at halftime (nearly matching the halftime margin of the Miami-Chicago fiasco) and maintaining at least a 16 point cushion throughout the second half until Terence Davis hit a meaningless three pointer with 19.9 seconds remaining to close out the scoring.

Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring and rebounding (27 points, nine rebounds), Klay Thompson had a flashback shooting performance (23 points on 8-11 field goal shooting), Brandon Williams contributed 17 points and five assists in 18 minutes off of the bench, and P.J. Washington scored 17 points while tying Davis for team-high honors with nine rebounds. For the deposed Kings, DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 33 points, Zach LaVine added 20 points on 8-19 field goal shooting along with nine assists and a game-high tying five turnovers, and Domantas Sabonis had 11 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers.

Since the NBA began the Play-In Tournament in 2021, no 10th seeded team has claimed the eighth seed in either conference; that will change on Friday night if Miami beats Atlanta or if Dallas beats Memphis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks, DeMar DeRozan, Josh Giddey, Klay Thompson, Miami Heat, Sacramento Kings, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

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An Initial Assessment of the Lakers After the Doncic-Davis Trade

The L.A. Lakers' 123-100 win versus the Denver Nuggets on February 22 sparked a lot of media talk and social media chatter about the Lakers being a legitimate championship contender. Can one game or even one good stretch of games prove that a team that has not won a playoff series since 2023 and has not advanced past the first round in three of the past four seasons is an elite squad? 

The L.A. Lakers did not look like a championship contender when they started the season with a 13-9 record. On January 7, the Lakers fell to 20-16 after Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick as Kidd's shorthanded Mavericks routed Redick's Lakers. The 21-16 Mavericks looked poised to jump back into championship contention once the injured Luka Doncic returned to action--but less than a month later the Mavericks traded Doncic to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, a deal that shocked the league and may have changed the trajectories of both franchises.

The Lakers have gone 10-2 since the trade--but they went 8-3 after the loss to Dallas and before the trade, so they showed signs of improvement before acquiring Doncic. The Mavericks have gone 6-6 since the trade, but it must be emphasized that Davis suffered an adductor strain in his first game with Dallas and he has been out of the lineup since that time. The Mavericks are also without the services of injured big men Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, so the only fair grade for the post-trade Mavericks is "incomplete."  

Since the trade, the Lakers have a 6-2 record with Doncic in the lineup, and they are 4-0 without Doncic. The teams that the Lakers beat with Doncic include the Jazz, the Nuggets, the Mavericks, the Timberwolves, and the Clippers (twice). The Lakers also lost to the Jazz and the Hornets with Doncic. Other then the Nuggets, none of those teams are currently seeded higher than sixth in the Western Conference--and the Hornets have the 14th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference. The Lakers beat the Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, and Trail Blazers sans Doncic; none of those teams currently ranks higher than fifth in their conference. 

It was reasonable to assume that the Lakers sans Davis would struggle defensively and on the boards due to their relative lack of size--but the post-trade Lakers have improved in defensive field goal percentage, points allowed, and rebounding. The defensive improvement is surprising, and it remains to be seen if it is sustainable, particularly against stronger opposition; the Lakers are compensating for their lack of paint presence/shot blocking by playing with tremendous energy on the perimeter, and they are completing these frenetic defensive possessions by grabbing rebounds and then getting out on the break. LeBron James and Luka Doncic are by far the Lakers' two best rebounders: James averaged 10.5 rpg in February after averaging 7.0 rpg or less in three of the previous four months, and Doncic has averaged 8.3 rpg since joining the Lakers. For all of the talk about James being a pass first player who is a point guard, James is the same size as Hall of Fame power forward Karl Malone, and his teams have consistently been at their best when he played in the paint like a power forward. Similarly, Doncic may nominally be a point guard, but at 6-6, 230 he is the same size as a big small forward or a small power forward. It is not clear if the Lakers can win four playoff series with James as the de facto power forward and Doncic as the de facto small forward--but it is clear that without James and Doncic leading the way on the boards the Lakers would be in trouble. Offensively, James and Doncic may be sharing the "point forward" role, but the Lakers are thriving now because James and Doncic are rebounding like power forwards while also showing unexpected defensive commitment; James is playing better defensively than he has in years, and Doncic is at least paying some attention at that end of the court. James and Doncic are elite scorers and elite passers, so it is not surprising that the Lakers now have a high-powered offense--but the Lakers' playoff prospects are directly connected to defense and rebounding (which is true of any team's playoff prospects).

How significant is the Lakers' win versus the Nuggets? The Nuggets dominated the Lakers for the past several seasons, and eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, so Redick and company took great joy in that victory--but that was just one regular season win, not the four playoff victories necessary to prevail in a seven game series. The Lakers thought that they found something brilliant when they used Rui Hachimura as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic late in game one of the their 2023 playoff series, but the Nuggets still swept that series, so it is way too soon to say that the Lakers found something brilliant by fronting the post, swarming Jokic, and daring other Nuggets to make shots in a regular season game. Redick can pat himself on the back until his arm is sore, but that does not change the reality that one regular season win does not equal one playoff win, let alone four playoff wins. 

Also, it is far from clear that the 2025 Nuggets are as good as the 2024 Nuggets or the 2023 Nuggets, so even if the Lakers have found something to vanquish the Nuggets that may not matter against the league's best teams. There are seven teams other than the Lakers that currently have a winning percentage of at least .600, and the post-trade Lakers have only played one of them (the Nuggets). Until we see the Lakers not only play regular season games against those teams but also face strong competition in a seven game playoff series it is too soon to say that the Lakers are legitimate championship contenders. 

It is not surprising that the Doncic-James Lakers have a powerful offense. It is surprising that they have a good defense, even in a small sample size of games against mostly non-contending teams. It is not surprising that the Lakers with a relatively healthy Doncic are better than the Lakers with Davis (let alone an injured Davis); Doncic has been one of the NBA's top five players for the past five years, while Davis last made the All-NBA First Team in 2020. 

An objective analyst needs to see more before labeling the Lakers as a legitimate championship contender, but it is understandable why Lakers' fans are excited about their team's prospects not only for the long term with Doncic at the helm but also for the short term with Doncic and James leading the charge together. 

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic

posted by David Friedman @ 1:29 AM

8 comments

Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years

"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season. 

LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.

It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the 4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball. 

The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years? 

Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.

Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.

The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.

Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.

The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time. 

More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.

My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM

12 comments

Jason "Plumber" Kidd Outcoaches J.J. "Genius" Redick as Undermanned Mavericks Rout Star-Studded Lakers

"The Lakers stink."--Charles Barkley

On Tuesday night, the L.A. Lakers visited Dallas to face an injury-decimated Mavericks team that is without the services of MVP candidate Luka Doncic, eight-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, and key big man Daniel Gafford. Clearly, this game projected to be a rout--and it was, but in favor of the Mavericks, 118-97. The Mavericks had lost their previous 10 games played sans Doncic and Irving. TNT's Reggie Miller called it a "gritty win" for the Mavericks. That is true, but this is also a humiliating and inexcusable loss for the talent-laden Lakers featuring LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.

Quentin Grimes scored a game-high 23 points while shooting 8-17 from the field (including 6-11 from three point range). P.J. Washington (22 points) also scored more points than James or Davis. Spencer Dinwiddie added 19 points. Dinwiddie was a Laker last season. It sure is great for the Lakers that they did not retain his services, and kept a roster spot open for LeBron's son Bronny, who has scored four points this season--to be clear, Bronny is not averaging 4 ppg: he has scored four total points. 

The Mavericks outrebounded the Lakers 44-33, and the Mavericks shot 45-86 (.523) from the field. The Lakers have tremendous advantages in size and skill that could/should be exploited in the paint--but the Mavericks outscored the Lakers 52-40 in the paint as the Lakers eschewed high percentage two points shots while shooting just 11-35 (.314) from three point range.

Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 21 points but he shot just 7-18 from the field, including 2-7 from three point range. Davis had a game-high 12 rebounds. James filled up the boxscore with empty numbers, amassing a near triple double with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. Davis' plus/minus number was -19, and James' plus/minus number was -12. 

One play from this game is a microcosm of why players should not be evaluated just based on their individual statistics alone. With less than five seconds remaining in the third quarter, James grabbed a defensive rebound, dribbled up court, stopped a few feet beyond the three point line, and passed the ball with less than one second remaining; time ran out without the Lakers taking a shot, and James managed to avoid both a missed shot and a turnover, so the play was successful in terms of preserving his vaunted "efficiency"--but his team trailed by 13 points, so the unselfish team-first play would be to take a three pointer from the top of the key; maybe the shot goes in, maybe James is fouled, but there is no potential downside for the team even though James risked adding a missed field goal attempt to his personal statistics. Passing the ball when there is not enough time for the intended recipient to shoot just wastes the possession for the team (but not for a player who is obsessively focused on his personal statistics). That play did not decide the outcome of the game, but it speaks volumes about James' basketball values, and about the mentality of this Lakers team. When the team's best player cares more about his numbers than he does about winning, that attitude permeates the entire roster. It is not a mystery why the Lakers often look lackadaisical; the tone of not focusing on team success is set at the top of the roster, and then cascades through the rest of the roster.

How did the Mavericks win this game? Simple--Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick. Redick's team has the two best players, but Redick could not figure out how to exploit his team's obvious matchup advantages on offense, and his team's defense was awful, which highlights his limitations both as a motivator and as a strategist. After the first 22 games of the J.J. Redick era, I provided this assessment: "In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort."

When Redick took this job, he declared that he signed up to coach a "championship caliber" team. If his assessment is that the Lakers are a championship caliber team then it is fair to ask why they are not playing at a championship level. Redick will never admit that his lack of NBA coaching experience and acumen is a problem, so it will be interesting to see when the Lakers figure this out (or admit it to themselves); I suspect that this will not happen until James retires or until James is no longer playing well enough to justify the top to bottom control he currently exercises over the franchise in terms of hiring/firing coaches and making personnel moves (including the drafting of his son Bronny, who is not an NBA caliber player and will not be an NBA caliber player for the foreseeable future).

There is still more than half the season left, but it does not seem likely that Redick will turn out to be the next Pat Riley.

When Redick worked as a TV commentator and as a podcaster, he made the ridiculous assertion that Bob Cousy's statistics are not impressive because Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen."  Kidd's NBA playing career began in 1994, which is past the era during which NBA players regularly had other jobs during the offseason, but Redick--with his rampant recency bias and slavish devotion to promoting LeBron James while denigrating the great players of the past--has taken potshots at that era as well, dismissing it as watered down due to expansion. 

It was fun watching Jason "Plumber" Kidd outcoach J.J. "Genius" Redick. Kidd played the game at a high level for a long time and, unlike Redick, Kidd played both ends of the court. Charles Barkley called Kidd's coaching in this game a "master class," and it goes without saying--but I'll say it anyway--that Redick's coaching was the opposite of a master class. Call it amateur hour, befitting of someone whose only prior coaching experience was coaching his son and other amateur kids. During his post-game press conference, Redick emphasized that during this game the Lakers played defensive coverages that he has never seen. Presumably, his intended point is that he knows defensive coverages but his players are clueless; however, Redick's statement is a self-indictment of his inept coaching, because there are only two reasons for the Lakers to play defensive coverages that he has never seen: one reason is that Redick is not good at teaching defense to NBA players, and the other reason is that the players do not respect Redick enough to do what he asks them to do.

The Lakers played so poorly that the poster child for NBA nepotism--Bronny James--made a rare appearance (just his ninth game played this season), logging one minute of garbage time and putting together a "trillionaire" boxscore number of one minute played followed by zeroes in all other categories (though, it should be noted, he managed to have a -4 plus/minus number during his cameo appearance).

This is one game in an 82 game season. I am not foolish enough to think that the legacies of players or coaches are defined by one game. The larger point is that the way that the Lakers played versus the Mavericks reflects issues and trends that have been apparent for several years--ever since the Lakers won the "bubble title" in 2020--and thus cannot properly be dismissed as an aberration. This is the sixth time in 36 games this season that the Lakers lost by at least 20 points. As Chris Berman loves to say (though the expression does not originate with him), "Once is an accident, twice is a trend, three times is a problem." This game is an indictment of a problem, and not just an "accident."

The two greatest things about Redick coaching the Lakers are (1) we don't have to hear his asinine takes about basketball history as an ESPN commentator and as a podcaster, and (2) he will be an endless source of unintentional comedy with his combination of inept coaching and arrogant refusal to take responsibility for his team's losses, much like James Harden provides comic relief with his "concert tour" playoff field goal percentages.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, Jason Kidd, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, P.J. Washington, Quentin Grimes, Spencer Dinwiddie

posted by David Friedman @ 1:30 AM

6 comments

Assessing the Lakers After the First 22 Games of the J.J. Redick Era

It is an NBA truism that after the first 20 games or so of a season you can reasonably assess how good each team is. The Lakers just played their 22nd game of the 2024-25 season, so let's take stock of the early results of the J.J. Redick era. The L.A. Lakers started last season 13-9--a .591 winning percentage--and they finished with a 47-35 record (.573) to rank eighth in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lakers are 12-10 after one of LeBron James' old teams took his current team to the woodshed tonight, as the Miami Heat waxed the Lakers, 134-93. Tyler Herro poured in a game-high 31 points and had a +30 plus/minus number as every Heat starter had a plus/minus number of at least +22. James led the Lakers with 29 points and he had a -21 plus/minus number as every Lakers starter had a plus/minus number of -20 or worse.

The Heat set a franchise single game record with 42 assists, they tied the franchise single game record with 24 three pointers, and they posted the third largest margin of victory in franchise history. The Heat shot 52-90 (.578) from the field, including 24-47 (.511) from three point range.

No NBA team should lose by 40-plus points, and that goes double for a team featuring two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting). It would be one thing if this game were an aberration, but this is the fourth time this season that the Lakers lost by at least 25 points. The 10-10 Heat are far from being a powerhouse, but the listless Lakers simply did not play hard or smart.

After last season, the Lakers fired Darvin Ham and replaced him with J.J. Redick because Redick is purported to be a basketball genius (despite the fact that he has no prior coaching experience outside of coaching his sons in youth league play). Redick is the fourth coach the Lakers have had during the seven year LeBron James era in L.A.; with James running the franchise, the Lakers have won one championship while missing the playoffs twice and losing in the first round twice. James won two of his four NBA titles during his four seasons in Miami, the only franchise that did not give him free reign to hire coaches and make personnel decisions, but he won just two NBA titles in his other 17 seasons running the show during two stints in Cleveland and his current stint in L.A.

The Lakers' best season by far with James was 2019-20, when they went 52-19 in the COVID-19 shortened season before winning the "bubble" championship. That squad ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage, and ninth in rebounding--but just 21st in three point field goal percentage. The notion that LeBron James must be surrounded by three point shooters is demonstrably false. The 2020 Lakers ranked first in field goal percentage because they ranked third in two point field goal percentage, with Dwight Howard shooting .732 from two point range, followed by JaVale McGee (.640), James (.564), and Davis (.546). James averaged 13.1 two point field goal attempts per game and 6.3 three point field goal attempts per game, while Davis led the team with 14.2 two point field goal attempts per game. Davis averaged just 3.5 three point field goal attempts per game. The 2020 Lakers averaged 56.7 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking ninth in the league.

So far this season (not including tonight's blowout loss), the Lakers rank 21st in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 27th in rebounding. Redick was supposed to provide a great advantage with his analytically driven offensive strategies, but the Lakers rank 17th in scoring, ninth in two point field goal percentage, 10th in field goal percentage, and 18th in three point field goal percentage. The Lakers average 51.9 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking 14th in the league.

In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort. 

I don't place much value on the NBA Cup, but it should be noted that Ham's Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup while Redick's Lakers failed to advance past group play in this season's NBA Cup.

It may have been a heartwarming story when Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James on Opening Night, but the harsh reality is that Bronny is probably not good enough to deserve a G League roster spot, let alone an NBA roster spot; he has averaged 5.0 ppg on .211 field goal shooting in two G League games this season. By hiring the unqualified J.J. Redick and drafting the unqualified Bronny James, the Lakers' front office sent a clear message that this season is about appeasing LeBron James and not about winning games, so it should not be surprising that the Lakers are not playing hard or smart.

There are good reasons to believe that the Lakers are worse than their record. They had a -2.6 point differential before tonight's debacle. Seven of the Lakers' 12 wins are against sub-.500 teams New Orleans, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto (twice), and Utah (twice). The Lakers only have seven games left against those teams, and they have yet to face Boston, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, or New York, teams that they will play a total of 14 times.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 11:59 PM

2 comments

Thoughts About the L.A. Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers

I am old enough to remember when the Philadelphia 76ers and L.A. Lakers were model franchises contesting three NBA Finals (1980, 1982-83) in a four year span. The 76ers had the NBA's best regular season record from 1976-83 while reaching the NBA Finals four times (1977, 1980, 1982-83), and winning one championship (1983) with a dominant 12-1 playoff run. Julius Erving was the one constant for the 76ers during that span, with Moses Malone joining the 76ers for the 1982-83 season as the final piece to their championship puzzle. The Lakers featured Pantheon members Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson plus a host of other All-Stars, and they won five championships (1980, 1982, 1985, 1987-88) during the 1980s. 

My, how the mighty have fallen!

The Lakers defeated the 76ers 116-106 on Friday night, but it is highly unlikely that either team will participate in the 2025 NBA Finals. The Lakers are 5-4, and on pace to win fewer games than they did last season. Other than taking the 2020 "bubble title", the LeBron James-led Lakers have been more about sideshows--capturing the 2023 NBA Cup before losing in the first round of the 2024 playoffs, signing Bronny James instead of trying to put the best possible player in every roster spot--than about contending for championships. In LeBron James' six full seasons with the Lakers, they have lost in the first round twice, and missed the playoffs twice, a track record that makes the "bubble title" look like an aberration.

The Lakers fired Coach Darvin Ham after going 47-35 last season, and it remains to be seen if his replacement J.J. Redick is the next Pat Riley. Redick mastered the obvious by making Anthony Davis the hub of the Lakers' offense--Davis scored a game-high 31 points versus the 76ers and he is currently the league's scoring leader--but other than that Redick's biggest early season move has been taking D'Angelo Russell out of the starting lineup prior to the 76ers game. Media members may try to fool the public into believing that this is some kind of strategic master stroke, but Redick could have put Bronny James--or possibly even some dude from the YMCA--in the starting lineup and the Lakers would have still beaten the injury-riddled 76ers, who are without the services of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Redick was a member of the media until fairly recently, and his former colleagues seem to be determined to treat him with kid gloves, but that will become increasingly difficult to do if the Lakers are still hovering around the .500 mark 30 or 40 games from now. 

Redick publicly called out every Laker other than LeBron James for lack of effort before benching Russell, which creates some potentially interesting locker room issues. It is obvious that Redick's podcasting partner LeBron James hired Redick, and that Redick will serve as Lakers coach only as long as he curries favor with James--so when Redick calls out players he is speaking on behalf of James, which is problematic from the jump and becomes more problematic if Redick does not call out James when James' effort or execution are not up to par. The best coaches lead by challenging their best players, which then inspires the rest of the team to live up to that standard. The presence of Bronny James on the roster is a constant reminder that the Lakers make roster decisions based on LeBron James' whims, not winning, and calling out role players without challenging LeBron James will get old very quickly, particularly if the Lakers do not soon move up in the standings.

The 1-7 76ers are in even worse shape than the Lakers, and they face an uphill battle just to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. The 76ers still have more suspensions and fines than wins this season, and they have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson carried them to the 2001 NBA Finals. Daryl Morey prides himself on utilizing the kind of "advanced basketball statistics" that lead him to believe that James Harden is a greater scorer than Michael Jordan, and if Morey stays true to the "stat guru" way of thinking then his 76ers will tank the rest of the way, because "stat gurus" assert that the worst thing in the NBA is to be stuck in the middle; the 76ers have most definitely not "Tanked to the Top" but if they are not going to get a top playoff seed then the vaunted numbers so prized by "stat gurus" suggest that the 76ers should deliberately sacrifice wins for draft picks--but even the stat-obsessed Morey probably has enough sense to realize that the last thing that 76ers fans will tolerate now is more tanking on the heels of the infamous "Process" that yielded Embiid and a string of seasons ending in the second round of the playoffs (or earlier). Statistics--real ones, not the contrived "advanced ones"--indicate that a 1-7 team is more likely to participate in the Draft Lottery than the playoffs, but deliberately aiming for the Draft Lottery with Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey on the roster is unthinkable even for the unofficial king of the "stat gurus."

On Friday night, the 76ers got just nine points on 4-13 field goal shooting from Paul "I call myself Playoff P" George, who will collect more than $200 million from the 76ers during the next four seasons. The 76ers are paying Morey a lot of money to build their roster because they believe that Morey's use of "advanced basketball statistics" gives him a significant edge over his peers. It would be interesting to know which proprietary metrics persuaded Morey that it is shrewd to pay more than $200 million to a shooting guard in his age 34-38 seasons.

Labels: Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, J.J. Redick, Joel Embiid, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Paul George, Philadelphia 76es, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 9:06 AM

12 comments

LeBron and Bronny Make History, but Davis Dominates as Lakers Tame Timberwolves

It is not often that a second round draft pick who played three minutes in his NBA debut gets headline treatment--but when that second round draft pick is the son of the NBA's all-time leading scorer, and that duo becomes the first father and son to share playing time on an NBA court then headline treatment is inevitable. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 110-103 in the second game of TNT's 2024 NBA Opening Night doubleheader, but what will be remembered most about this game is that Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James. Bronny did not score a point, shooting 0-2 from the field with a -5 plus/minus number in just under three minutes of action; his best chance to score came on a drive and kick pass from his father, but Bronny missed an open three pointer.

Bronny was the story of the night, but Anthony Davis was the star of the game with game-high totals in points (36), rebounds (16), and blocked shots (three). Davis' activity level was so high that sometimes it seemed like he was in two places at once. When Davis is healthy and dominant, the Lakers look like a different team. He was the main reason that the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves in the paint, 72-40. For the past several years, we have been subjected to various narratives about the Lakers, including the team supposedly needing "lasers" (outside shooters), Russell Westbrook being demonized and turned into a scapegoat even though intelligent analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbook, and media members bending over backwards to spin the facts about the team's flaws to preserve access to LeBron James--but we rarely hear the truth told about this team: the Lakers are at their best when Davis and James attack the paint at both ends of the court; that was the recipe for success when the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble title."

The Lakers shot 5-30 (.167) from three point range and James had a quiet game by his lofty standards (16 points, five rebounds, four assists), but the Lakers' paint dominance spearheaded by Davis was the difference. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 27 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field as the Timberwolves shot 35-85 (.412) from the field overall. Julius Randle, who was acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns, finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. The Timberwolves used their size to push teams around last season, but in this game the Lakers pushed them around. 

New Lakers Coach J.J. Redick is a "stat guru" at heart, so one of his mantras is that he wants the Lakers to shoot more three pointers than they did last season. If the Lakers follow that prescription then they will not improve their record, but if they play with force in the paint the way that they did versus the Timberwolves then they will be better than than they have been in recent seasons.

TNT's postgame on court interview is usually conducted with the star of the game, but instead of Davis receiving the honor and the attention the spotlight shined on LeBron and Bronny, who comes across as a thoughtful and grounded young man. LeBron James grew up without his biological father, so James' commitment to being a family man is commendable. As a father, I understand how meaningful it must be to him to play in an NBA game alongside his son, and from a human interest standpoint this is a wonderful moment, with the emotional impact heightened by the fact that Bronny has recovered from suffering cardiac arrest on July 24, 2023.

However, from the standpoint of the NBA putting the best possible product on the floor and from the standpoint of the Lakers posing as a team that aspires to win a championship, Bronny's presence on an NBA roster--let alone his appearance in an NBA game--is problematic. Bronny averaged 4.8 ppg on .366 field goal shooting in his only college season; no player with that statistical profile is going to be drafted by an NBA team--unless his father is LeBron James. TNT's Kenny Smith kept emphasizing that Bronny James was a McDonald's All-American in high school, stating that this demonstrates that Bronny earned being a second round draft pick--but being a McDonald's All-American in high school does not always translate into college success, let alone NBA success. It is ridiculous to suggest that any team other than James' Lakers would have drafted Bronny (unless a team thought that drafting Bronny could influence James to leave the Lakers to sign with them).

By not only giving Bronny a roster spot that he did not earn but putting him on the court in a regular season game, the Lakers are demonstrating that they are not serious about winning; they don't have the best 15 player roster that they could have assembled, nor do they have the best 8-10 player rotation that they could have assembled. If the plan is to give Bronny three minutes now and then have him spend the rest of the season in the NBA G League, then essentially this was nothing more than a publicity stunt, and if the plan is to keep giving Bronny a few minutes here and there even though he has not earned those minutes then the other players on the Lakers' roster--and better players than Bronny who are not even in the league--will inevitably become resentful. Bronny is set for life financially regardless of how his playing career goes, but for most NBA prospects the opportunity to earn an NBA roster spot is potentially life-changing. The LeBron-Bronny father-son moment came at the expense of a player whose hard work should have earned him an NBA roster spot. I have heard the argument that nepotism happens in all fields so this is not a big deal, but that is the first time that I have heard the notion that because nepotism is widespread that makes it OK.

Opening Night was a happy story on the surface--the Lakers won, and LeBron James orchestrated the father-son moment that he has talked about for years--but the Lakers' season is unlikely to have a storybook ending. James has taken over the franchise to the extent that the Lakers feel compelled to make decisions that will please James even at the expense of on court success: they hired James' buddy Redick even though Redick has no meaningful coaching experience, and then they gave playing time to a player who is not NBA-caliber at this time. These unprofessional decisions will likely lead to consequences down the line.

Again, as a father I understand why LeBron made this happen--and I wish Bronny all the best in his career and life--but it is naive at best to expect this to end well.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, Julius Randle, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Minnesota Timberwolves

posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM

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Team USA Routs Brazil 122-87 to Move Within Two Wins of Capturing Olympic Gold

After posting a 3-0 record in pool play and earning the number one seed in the medal round, Team USA demolished Brazil in the quarterfinals to set up a semifinal matchup on Thursday versus Serbia, who needed overtime to beat Australia. Team USA jumped out to an 18-8 lead within the first five minutes, and enjoyed a double digit cushion most of the rest of the way. Brazil cut the margin to just eight points, 42-34, at the 4:10 mark of the second quarter before Team USA closed the half with a 21-2 run to erase any doubt. As is generally the case in FIBA play, strong defense leading to transition scoring opportunities was the key factor. Team USA held Brazil to 32-77 (.416) field goal shooting overall, including 12-37 (.324) from beyond the arc. Team USA controlled the boards 46-34, and forced 15 turnovers while only turning the ball over 11 times. Each Team USA starter had a plus/minus number of at least +12, a welcome change from previous games when opposing teams kept pace with Team USA's starters before succumbing to Team USA's superior depth.

Starter Devin Booker scored a team-high 18 points on 6-9 field goal shooting in 15 minutes. Anthony Edwards added 17 points on 6-10 field goal shooting off of the bench in 20 minutes. Joel Embiid, inserted in the starting lineup despite his largely desultory play for Team USA, had 14 points and seven rebounds in 12 minutes; naturally, while finally having a good game he engaged in constant celebrations, taunting a French crowd that jeered him for spurning France (he is a French citizen as well) to play for Team USA. Also naturally, Embiid injured his ankle during the first half and did not play in the second half: watching him play for Team USA is like watching him in the NBA playoffs when he usually plays below his regular season standard for most games but has one or two good games and invariably is either injured entering the postseason or gets hurt during the playoffs. He is not expected to miss more time in the Olympics.

Anthony Davis, Team USA's defensive anchor, scored 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting while also tying Brazil's Georginho De Paula for game-high rebounding honors (eight). LeBron James added 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting plus a game-high nine assists before leaving the game after taking an elbow to the face. James needed four stitches and did not return to action but he is expected to be fully available for the Serbia game. Kevin Durant chipped in 11 points off of the bench and surpassed Lisa Leslie to become the all-time leading scorer for Team USA in Olympic play (of course, such records are skewed in favor of modern players who participate in the Olympics several times, in contrast to previous eras when American players played in the Olympics just once).

Bruno Caboclo scored a game-high 30 points for Brazil, but Team USA held most of his teammates in check.

Serbia has been up and down during the Olympics, but they have the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) plus Bojan Bogdanovic and a bunch of scrappy players who most casual fans do not know much about. Team USA handled Serbia pretty easily in both the USA Basketball Showcase and pool play, though it is worth mentioning that in pool play Serbia played even with Team USA for the 31 minutes that Jokic was on the court but was outscored 29-3 during the nine minutes that Jokic was on the bench. If Serbia plays Jokic almost the entire game and he gets a little more help from his teammates then this game could be closer than expected, particularly if Team USA has some defensive lapses.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 9:04 AM

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Team USA Cruises to 3-0 Record in Pool Play, Earns Top Seed in Medal Round

On Saturday, Team USA routed Puerto Rico 104-83 in the final game of Olympics pool play. Puerto Rico led 25-17 after the first eight minutes, but Team USA trimmed the margin to 29-25 by the end of the first quarter and then outscored Puerto Rico 39-16 in the second quarter to take a 64-45 halftime lead. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range and that did not matter at all, because they held Puerto Rico to 10-37 (.270) three point shooting. As is generally the case for Team USA in FIBA play, defending the three point line, getting out in transition, and scoring easy baskets were much more important than making three pointers--despite the incessant chatter about the need to stuff the roster with three point shooters: Stephen Curry, widely considered the greatest three point shooter of all-time, shot .263 from three point range in Team USA's three pool play games, and Team USA still won each game by at least 17 points.

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 26 points in just 17 minutes off of the bench; as has often been the case for Team USA this year, the reserves picked up the slack after the starters were sluggish. Joel Embiid added 15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting, which qualifies as a breakout game for him considering how poorly he has played up to this point; he looks out of shape, but the undersized Puerto Rico team was just the right medicine for him. Kevin Durant added 11 points in 19 minutes off of the bench, while LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis each scored 10 points. James had six rebounds and a game-high eight assists, and Tatum tied Puerto Rico's Ismael Romero for game-high honors with 10 rebounds.

Team USA finished Olympics pool play with a 3-0 record. Team USA previously beat Serbia (110-84) and South Sudan (103-86 after nearly losing to South Sudan in the USA Basketball Showcase)--and has earned the number seed in the medal round based on their overall point differential of +64. Canada and Germany also went 3-0, but they had point differentials of +47 and +20 respectively. In the Olympics, blowing out an inferior opponent is an important tactic for getting a better seed, not bad sportsmanship.

The medal round is single elimination, so the NBA players have to adjust their mindsets from seven game playoff series during which each game lasts 48 minutes to the reality that one bad 40 minute game--or even one bad stretch during a 40 minute game--could be the end of the road. Team USA is the clear favorite to win the gold medal, but the other top FIBA teams are not pushovers. Team USA must continue to defend the perimeter aggressively and then score easy baskets in transition; if the game slows down, the top FIBA teams may pick them apart in the halfcourt. Depth is a major weapon--perhaps the major weapon--for Team USA; it is fascinating to see that even unheralded FIBA teams that lack NBA stars can hang with Team USA's first unit of all-time great players before being overwhelmed after Team USA's second unit enters the fray.

Edwards led Team USA in scoring (16.7 ppg on .633 field goal shooting) during pool play, followed closely by Durant (16.0 ppg on .636 field goal shooting). James is third in scoring (14.3 ppg on .643 field goal shooting), first in assists (7.3 apg), and third in rebounding (6.7 rpg) behind Tatum (7.5 rpg) and Davis (7.0 rpg).

Team USA has been rolling so comfortably that media members have felt compelled to make up drama-filled headlines, shrieking in horror when Tatum did not play versus Serbia and then again when Embiid did not play versus South Sudan. Team USA's Coach Steve Kerr explained those lineup choices as being strictly matchup-related; he does not have a set rotation, but instead shuffles his starting lineup and adjusts playing time based on the strengths/weaknesses of the opponent. If the people covering the 2024 Olympics did their research then they would know that the 1992 Dream Team--the first Team USA squad that had NBA players on the roster--had many different starting lineups; every player on the roster except John Stockton and Christian Laettner started at least one game, with most players starting three or four of the eight games (not surprisingly, Michael Jordan was the only player who started all eight games).

Team USA will face Brazil in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The winner of that game will play the winner of Australia versus Serbia. In the other bracket, the winner of Germany versus Greece will face the winner of Canada versus France, with the winner of that semifinal matchup advancing to the gold medal game to presumably face Team USA.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 3:54 AM

6 comments

Is J.J. Redick the Next Pat Riley?

After firing Darvin Ham and being rebuffed by first choice Dan Hurley, the L.A. Lakers are gambling a reported $32 million over the next four years that J.J. Redick is the next Pat Riley--but their recent record of hiring and firing coaches provides little reason for optimism, as Phil Jackson has proven to be a tough act to follow. Since Jackson left the L.A. Lakers after the 2010-11 season, the Lakers have had seven different head coaches prior to Redick: Mike Brown, Bernie Bickerstaff, Mike D'Antoni, Byron Scott, Luke Walton, Frank Vogel, and Darvin Ham. Vogel--who led the Lakers to the 2020 "bubble" title--and Walton are the only members of that group who lasted three seasons on the job.

Vogel was by far the most successful Lakers coach post-Jackson, leading the Lakers to a 52-19 regular season record (.732 winning percentage) in 2020 en route to winning the franchise's first and only championship since Kobe Bryant carried the Lakers to repeat titles in 2009 and 2010. The Lakers fired Vogel after the Lakers lost in the first round in 2021 and then missed the playoffs in 2022. 

In Requiem for the 2022 L.A. Lakers, I analyzed several issues facing the team, many of which are still issues two years later: most notably, LeBron James' lack of consistent defensive effort and his focus on so many things other than team success limit the effectiveness of his leadership--and this is further complicated by the reality that James' friends in the media make sure that James is immune from any criticism regarding the Lakers' failure to live up to reasonable expectations. 

James and his media allies often lament that the Lakers have not surrounded James with better three point shooters, despite the evidence clearly showing that James' sole title run with the Lakers had nothing to do with three point shooting. The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. Contrary to revisionist history, their winning formula had nothing to do with surrounding James with three point shooters; they ranked 23rd in three point field goals made and 21st in three point field goal percentage--and it's not like they caught fire from beyond the arc during their playoff run: they ranked 12th out of the 16 playoff teams in playoff three point field goal percentage.

James and Redick have hosted a podcast together for the past few months, and it is evident that the podcast served as an interview process for James to decide who the Lakers would hire to replace Ham. James publicly denies having any input in the Lakers' firing and hiring decisions, but that is beyond disingenuous: star NBA players are consulted about such decisions as a matter of course, and James demonstrably has more influence on such decisions than most other NBA stars.

James' media allies portray Redick as a basketball savant positioned to become the next Pat Riley. Riley became the L.A. Lakers' head coach early in the 1981-82 season despite having no head coaching experience; he led the Lakers to four championships (1982, 1985, 1987-88), and then he coached the Miami Heat to the 2006 championship. The obvious difference between Riley and Redick is that Riley worked in the trenches as a Lakers assistant coach for a couple seasons before becoming the head coach, while Redick has spent more time cultivating a social media following than he has spent in the trenches as a coach (his only head coaching experience to this point is with his son's youth league team).

Redick was the consensus 2006 NCAA Player of the Year before having a long career as an NBA role player, but his resume as a player and James' tacit endorsement do not guarantee that this will work out well for the Lakers. It will be fascinating to see how the other Lakers react to being coached by the inexperienced Redick with James pulling the marionette strings even more blatantly than James has with previous coaches.

Redick displayed both his arrogance in general and his specific ignorance about basketball history when he made disrespectful comments about Bob Cousy, and Cousy correctly retorted that Redick is an example of someone who attacks people with superior credibility and skills because he is deficient in both departments. Redick's arrogance and smug demeanor are apparent every time he opens his mouth; you can get away with thinking that you are the smartest person in the room if you really are the smartest person in the room, but if you are not the smartest person in the room then that act gets old very quickly. The extent to which Redick (1) is ignorant about basketball history, and (2) relies on "advanced basketball statistics" are both strong indicators that Redick is not quite as smart as he thinks he is.

Deep knowledge of basketball history may not be essential to being a successful coach--though I would argue that such knowledge can be a powerful tool in terms of understanding the evolution of the game--but arrogance combined with ignorance is toxic. Based on his public NBA commentary, Redick seems smitten with a very narrow view of basketball tactics focused on "advanced basketball statistics." That kind of biased and limited thinking has not helped Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie or Sam Presti to win even one NBA title during a combined 38 years of running NBA front offices, and it is not likely to help the Lakers win a championship with Redick at the helm steering the Lakers toward making decisions based on "advanced basketball statistics."

It is worth noting that James' greatest success as an NBA player--when he won two championships, won back to back regular season MVPs, won back to back NBA Finals MVPs, and made four straight trips to the NBA Finals--happened during his four years in Miami, the only franchise that did not give James free reign over the front office's decision making processes. Riley runs the Heat, which includes making personnel decisions, and not letting James--or any other player--undermine the authority of Coach Erik Spoelstra. In contrast, James has exercised large influence on coaching and personnel decisions in Cleveland and L.A., where he has won a combined two championships in 17 seasons while compiling a 2-4 NBA Finals record with four non-playoff seasons and two first round exits. 

Thus, there is a large body of evidence spanning 21 years showing that James--even when in his absolute prime--fared much better when he did not have his fingerprints on every organizational decision. The Lakers have lost their last two playoff series with a combined 1-8 record, and it is doubtful that they can substantially improve the roster around James and his hand-picked sidekick Anthony Davis, so it will be fascinating to watch James and Redick attempt to coach the Lakers past the first round of the 2025 playoffs.

Last season, the Lakers ranked second in field goal percentage, eighth in three point field goal percentage, and sixth in scoring, so it is incorrect to assert that offense is their primary issue. In order to become more successful, the Lakers must improve their lackluster defense--last season they ranked 17th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed--and they must improve their rebounding (last season they ranked 18th in that category, a marked decline from ranking ninth during their 2020 championship season). Defense starts with (1) a good scheme designed by the coaching staff to maximize the team's matchup advantages and minimize the impact of matchup disadvantages, and (2) the team's best players putting forth maximum defensive effort, setting the right example for the rest of the team to follow.

Thus, intelligent Lakers fans should be concerned that during Redick's introductory press conference on Monday he focused on ways that he plans to change the Lakers' offense, including using Anthony Davis as a "hub"--presumably, a playmaker a la Nikola Jokic--and encouraging LeBron James to be a high volume three point shooter. Although James shot a career-high .410 from three point range last season, offense is not where the Lakers struggled last season, and deploying one of the greatest drivers in pro basketball history as a three point shooter is unlikely to help the team's offense or the team's overall performance; if Davis is going to be the Lakers' Jokic and James is going to be Michael Porter Jr. then who is going to be Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon? There is a cliche that the NBA is a copycat league, but copying what one team did well when your roster does not have the same skill set strengths is not a recipe for success. The Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title because James and Davis attacked the paint on offense and defended the paint on defense; turning them into a three point shooter and a point center respectively just takes the Lakers even further away from what worked in the best season of James' Lakers career.

The Lakers should be focused on getting stops and then scoring easy baskets in transition, as opposed to trying to dissect a set half court defense with Davis pretending to be Jokic and James settling for being a three point bomber. 

Casual fans know that the 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics ranked first in three point shots made and three point shots attempted while ranking second in three point field goal percentage--but intelligent fans understand that what matters most is that the Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed.

Redick stated that he signed up to lead a "championship caliber" team. A championship team must win four playoff series in one postseason, so that is quite an ambitious goal for a franchise that has won just four playoff series in the past four years. Rest assured that if the Lakers have another season that fails to meet those lofty, unrealistic expectations, Redick--not James--will receive the blame from James' media allies who uncritically accept the narrative that James had no input on the decision to hire Redick.

Labels: Anthony Davis, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 AM

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Murray's Game-Winner Lifts Nuggets to 4-1 Series Win Over Lakers

After hitting a game-winning buzzer beater to give the Denver Nuggets a 2-0 series lead over the L.A. Lakers, Jamal Murray nailed a game-winning jumper to lift the Nuggets to a 108-106 game five victory that moved the Nuggets into the second round and sent the Lakers home. Murray finished with a game-high 32 points on 13-28 field goal shooting (including 5-10 from three point range), and he averaged 23.6 ppg in the series. Michael Porter Jr. added 26 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, including 5-7 from beyond the arc. Nikola Jokic stuffed the boxscore with 25 points on 12-21 field goal shooting, a game-high 20 rebounds, and nine assists; the only blemish on his stellar performance was that he committed a game-high seven turnovers. Jokic averaged 28.2 ppg, 16.2 rpg, and 9.8 apg in the series while shooting .591 from the field; that combination of scoring, rebounding, passing, and high efficiency shooting is reminiscent of the numbers posted by Wilt Chamberlain when he won three straight regular season MVPs and one NBA title from 1966-68. No other player in pro basketball history has simultaneously checked off all four of those boxes.

LeBron James scored a team-high 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, passed for a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed nine rebounds in 44 minutes--a strong stat line for any player, and a remarkable stat line for a 39 year old veteran of 21 NBA seasons. James is still highly productive as an individual, but his stats do not translate into team success. The difference between the Lakers and the Nuggets is that the Nuggets are singularly focused on winning: they don't care who gets the individual stats, or who gets the credit. They are drama-free. In contrast, drama has swirled around the Lakers from the moment that James joined the team: there is always a story brewing about who will be traded, who will be signed, will the coach be fired, will James leave, who will be blamed. 

Anthony Davis had 17 points, 15 rebounds, and four assists. As often happens, he suffered an injury that limited his aggressiveness and his effectiveness. This time, it was his shoulder/neck. At some point--and we have surpassed that point--it should be understood that when ranking players like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson their propensity for being injured during the games that matter most is every bit as relevant as their skill set strengths. Most of the all-time great players either did not get hurt often or else did not miss games often during their prime years, but the opposite is true of Embiid, Davis, and Williamson, and that is why--despite their undeniable talent--they have combined to win just one championship. At this point, it would be surprising if we ever see any of those players advancing past the second round of the playoffs.

The Lakers enjoyed a halftime lead in each of the first four games of this series, and they did not break that streak in game five, outscoring the Nuggets 53-50 in the first 24 minutes. The Lakers led for most of the game, and they led 104-103 with 1:33 remaining in the fourth quarter after James' driving layup but--as happens almost every time these teams face each other--the Nuggets executed better down the stretch and won the game.  

It is odd how much attention has been paid to the Lakers' halftime leads and total time spent leading. All that matters is who leads at the final buzzer. The Philadelphia 76ers trailed at halftime in each game of the 1983 NBA Finals, but all that anyone remembers--and all that anyone should remember--is that the 76ers swept the Lakers 4-0 to cap off a record-setting 12-1 playoff run. Will the NBA or its media partners develop a new official statistic for "minutes led" or "halftime leads" and then credit LeBron James for setting yet another record? 

Instead of focusing on the Lakers' meaningless halftime leads, focus on the fact that the Lakers have won two playoff series in the four years since capturing the 2020 "bubble" championship, though of course no one can forget their epic NBA Cup win and the ensuing banner-hanging ceremony. Take away their playoff wins in the "bubble," and the James-Davis Lakers have an 11-16 playoff record, including 3-11 on the road--which strongly suggests that without the comforts of playing neutral site playoff games in the "bubble" the James-Davis Lakers would not have won a championship.

The historical NBA standard is that star players receive the brunt of the blame when their teams fail to meet expectations. Even the great Magic Johnson was temporarily dubbed "Tragic" Johnson after his Lakers lost to the Celtics in the 1984 NBA Finals. Kobe Bryant was pilloried for not figuring out how to win more when his starting point guard was Smush Parker and his starting center was Kwame Brown (it is a fun exercise picturing how LeBron James would react to having that supporting cast). 

However, James has repeatedly been granted a rare hall pass: losses are generally not portrayed to be James' fault, so look for James to either (1) pressure the Lakers to fire Coach Darvin Ham and reshape the roster yet again or (2) jump to a team that he perceives to provide greener pastures. Asked after the game if he plans to return to the Lakers, James smiled and declined to answer the question. James has the option to become a free agent this summer and he has the contractual right to go wherever he wants, but the point is that he has created drama and instability everywhere he goes by always having one eye on the exit as opposed to having two eyes on what is best for his current franchise.

Meanwhile, Jokic dominates with no drama, no team-hopping, and without throwing anyone under the bus--and he dominates without playing alongside a single All-Star, let alone playing alongside a roster that he handpicked that includes a player voted to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (Davis) and a player who has made the All-Star team once (D'Angelo Russell).

As the first round progresses, it is interesting that 75th Anniversary Team members LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry combined to win one playoff game this year: Durant's Phoenix Suns got swept by the Minnesota Timberwolves, the James/Davis Lakers managed one win, and Curry's Golden State Warriors lost in the Play-In Tournament. All season long, we heard (1) how strong the Western Conference supposedly is, and (2) how the Lakers, Suns, and Warriors are three teams that no one wants to face in a seven game series. The reality is that the Western Conference was overrated overall, and those three teams specifically were overrated: they are three teams that everyone would (or should) want to face. Throw in the New Orleans Pelicans being swept by the Oklahoma City Thunder, and it is evident that Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota are a class above the rest of the West (with the jury still out regarding the winner of the Dallas-L.A. Clippers series).

Labels: Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM

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Nuggets Make Yet Another Second Half Comeback, Take 3-0 Series Lead Versus the Lakers

For the third straight game, the L.A. Lakers built a double digit first half lead versus the Denver Nuggets--and for the 11th straight game, the Nuggets beat the L.A. Lakers. The Nuggets' 112-105 victory gives them a commanding 3-0 series lead, and that is the death knell in the NBA playoffs: 151 NBA teams have been down 3-0 in a playoff series prior to this series, and no team has ever come back from that deficit to win the series. 

Aaron Gordon led Denver with a team-high 29 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, and he tied for game-high honors with 15 rebounds. Nikola Jokic filled up the boxscore with 24 points on 9-13 field goal shooting, 15 rebounds, and nine assists. Jamal Murray, who nailed the game-winning buzzer beater in the previous game, scored 22 points and dished for nine assists. Michael Porter Jr. added 20 points and 10 rebounds.

Anthony Davis scored a game-high 33 points on 14-23 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 15 rebounds, but he once again faded down the stretch, posting three points on 1-3 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. LeBron James had 26 points on 12-20 field goal shooting plus nine assists and six rebounds. Austin Reaves added 22 points, but no other Laker scored more than eight points. 

Watching the Lakers consistently struggle with lagging second half energy and an inability to generate enough easy baskets, it is clear that the Lakers could use a high energy point guard who plays hard and pushes the pace. Russell Westbrook would be a great fit! Oh, wait--last season the Lakers traded Westbrook for Malik Beasley, D'Angelo Russell, and Jarred Vanderbilt. How much did that "tremendous trio" contribute for the Lakers in Thursday night's do or die game three? Beasley is no longer with the Lakers after averaging 3.0 ppg on .294 field goal shooting for the Lakers in the 2023 playoffs. Vanderbilt averaged 4.6 ppg on .400 field goal shooting for the Lakers in the 2023 playoffs, played just 29 regular season games for the Lakers in 2023-24, and he has yet to play in the 2024 playoffs due to injury. Russell shot 0-7 from the field and did not score a point. Yes, the Lakers quite literally gave up a future Hall of Fame point guard for nothing--the three players who the Lakers acquired in the Westbrook trade did not score a single point for the Lakers in game three. I said it when the Lakers traded Westbrook, I said it during the Lakers' fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, and I will say it again now: getting rid of Westbrook did bring the Lakers closer to being a legit contender, and it did not position the Lakers very well for the post-LeBron James era, either.

After game three, TNT's Charles Barkley said that he had expected this to be a competitive series and he is surprised by the way that the Nuggets have taken the Lakers's heart. I am not surprised. I picked the Nuggets to win this series in five games because I knew that, when it matters most, Jokic will outplay James and Davis not only individually but by bringing out the best in his teammates--and Jokic will do so without any complaining or drama.

It is quite telling that during the first half--when the Lakers had the lead--you could see Davis shaking his head in disgust after a Nuggets' score. It is obvious that deep down the Lakers do not trust each other, and do not believe that they can beat the Nuggets.

The only thing more inevitable than Denver winning this series is that General Manager/Coach/Player President LeBron James will receive little to no criticism for the Lakers' desultory performance not only in this series but for most of his L.A. tenure. James and Davis will always have the "bubble" championship and the inaugural NBA Cup title--but they also have three Play-In Tournament appearances, one first round loss (soon to be two), and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament. Unless the Lakers make a miraculous and unprecedented comeback versus Denver, the Lakers will have failed to advance past the first round in three of the five seasons that James and Davis--two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--played together.

As I write these words, rest assured that James' buddies in the media are working on their stories detailing how the Lakers' failures should be blamed on Coach Darvin Ham. Davis already planted that seed after game two by stating that the Lakers' problem is that they are disorganized, and that seed is going to quickly blossom into a California redwood after the Nuggets put the Lakers out of their misery. Pay no attention to James' stat-padding, Davis' second half disappearing acts, or the numerous teammates and coaches that James has thrown under the bus--these Lakers may be the first team in NBA history that fails to meet expectations without the two best players receiving much blame, which is particularly odd considering that James not only dominates the ball but he also without question has played a major role in the team's roster construction.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 2:17 AM

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Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed

The L.A. Lakers built an 18 point third quarter lead before surviving a furious New Orleans comeback to defeat the Pelicans 110-106 in the first game of the 2024 Play-In Tournament and secure the seventh seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (23 points) and assists (nine) while also grabbing nine rebounds, swiping three steals, and blocking two shots, but he shot just 6-20 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. It will be interesting to see if his poor shooting is an aberration, or if James is wearing down after playing more games (71) and logging more minutes (2504) than he has in any season since 2017-18. D'Angelo Russell scored 21 points and had a game-best +16 plus/minus number. Anthony Davis added 20 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. After the game, Lakers coach Darvin Ham mocked what he called the "insane asylum sources" that had declared that the Lakers should lose this game on purpose to avoid a playoff matchup with Denver.

Zion Williamson poured in a game-high 40 points on 17-27 field goal shooting while also snaring 11 rebounds. Williamson's floater tied the score at 95 with 3:19 remaining in the fourth quarter, but he came up lame after the play and was not able to play the closing minutes; he apparently suffered a left hamstring injury, the extent of which will not be known until after further examination. The Pelicans tied the score twice more down the stretch but never took the lead, and the Lakers sealed the win by making four straight free throws in the final 10 seconds. No Pelican other than Williamson scored more than 12 points in a game that was there for the taking if Brandon Ingram (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, -16 plus/minus number), C.J. McCollum (nine points on 4-15 field goal shooting, -17), or Jonas Valanciunas (four points on 1-7 field goal shooting, -13) had just been a little subpar instead of abysmal. The Pelicans outrebounded the Lakers 50-41, and outscored them in the paint 62-36 as the Lakers shot just .417 from the field. Looking at the boxscore, it is difficult to understand how the Lakers won, but they did enjoy advantages in three point field goals made (14-9) and free throws made (26-11), although the latter number is a bit skewed because the Pelicans had to intentionally foul near the end of the game.

Since joining the L.A. Lakers in 2018, LeBron James has led the team to one NBA title (2020) and one NBA Cup title (2024), but the Lakers have also failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference standings for each of the past four seasons. They lost in the first round in 2021, missed the playoffs entirely in 2022, and enjoyed a fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals after surviving the Play-In Tournament. Nevertheless, one can expect that the LeBron James p.r. machine will crank into high gear during the next few days, trying to convince the world that it is a great feat for James and Davis--honored as members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--to sneak into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Even though the NBA does not officially keep statistics for the Play-In Tournament games, it will not be too long before someone declares that James is the greatest player in Play-In Tournament history (without questioning why a player of his historical stature annually appears in the Play-In Tournament). Regardless of what you read or hear prior to the first game of the Lakers' first round series versus the Nuggets on Saturday night, don't be fooled into believing that barely beating a non-contending team in one game will somehow translate into winning a seven game playoff series against the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, who swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

The Pelicans will host the Sacramento Kings in a Play-Tournament game to determine the Western Conference's eighth seed. The Kings earned their way into that matchup by dismantling the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, 118-94. During the TNT pregame show, Charles Barkley said that the Kings would need a big game from Keegan Murray to make up for the absence of Malik Monk. Murray delivered a game-high 32 points as every Sacramento starter scored at least 15 points. De'Aaron Fox contributed 24 points and six assists, while Domantas Sabonis added 16 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.  One Play-In Tournament game win does not wipe out the disappointment from losing to the Warriors in a seven game first round series last year--but it is a step in the right direction for a Sacramento team that seemed to regress this season after an impressive 2023 campaign.

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 22 points for Golden State, but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He looked like an All-Star, not like a legend and a four-time NBA champion. Jonathan Kuminga (16 points) and Moses Moody (16 points) provided a lift off of the bench, but Draymond Green had little impact (12 points, six assists, three rebounds), and Klay Thompson was awful (0 points on 0-10 field goal shooting). 

The Warriors have had the Kings' number in recent years, so the fact that the Warriors could not muster up the necessary energy and effort to pull out an elimination game against the injury-depleted Kings speaks volumes. Barkley has said all season long that the Lakers and Warriors stink. The Lakers still have at least four games left in their season, but the Warriors have already had their TNT "Gone Fishin'" moment. The Warriors did not get much mileage out of having the NBA's highest payroll in 2023-24--paying $30.8 million to Chris "Greatest Leader in the NBA" Paul proved to be particularly wasteful--and one can expect some serious cost-cutting and roster upheaval in the wake of not just this loss but also a season that did not match the organization's lofty expectations.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Damontas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Keegan Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

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LeBron James Establishes the 40,000 Point Club, but Nuggets Rally Late to Beat Lakers, 124-114

LeBron James made history, but Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets got the 124-114 win over James' L.A. Lakers. Jokic dominated with a game-high 35 points on 16-25 field goal shooting plus 10 rebounds and seven assists. His +16 plus/minus number led both teams. Plus/minus numbers can be "noisy" and should be placed in context, but with Jokic there is a large data sample demonstrating that the Nuggets are an elite level team when he is on the court and a much weaker team when he is not on the court. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 25 points on 10-10 field goal shooting, and Jamal Murray added 24 points plus a team-high 11 assists. James led the Lakers with 26 points, and he became the first player in pro basketball history to score more than 40,000 regular season points. Rui Hachimura chipped in 23 points, and Anthony Davis scored 17 points while grabbing a team-high 11 rebounds--but no other Laker had more than four rebounds, and the Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers 47-31.

The Nuggets swept the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals by dominating in the second half, and they used that same formula to win this game: the Lakers led 66-58 at halftime, but in the second half the Nuggets outscored the Lakers 66-48 and outshot the Lakers .636 to .476. The Lakers played well offensively overall--scoring 114 points while shooting .528 from the field, including .414 from three point range--but their defense is just not at a championship level. In other words, what I have been saying about the Lakers for several years is still true: they don't need "lasers" (elite three point shooters), Frank Vogel was not the problem, Russell Westbrook was not the problem, the "tremendous trio" that the Lakers received in the Westbrook trade was not the answer, and the Lakers will not be a legitimate championship contender until they consistently play elite defense.

The Lakers led 110-108 with 4:11 to go in the fourth quarter after James made a driving layup, but the Nuggets closed the game with a 16-4 run. James scored 13 fourth quarter points on 6-8 field goal shooting while playing all 12 minutes. Murray led the Nuggets with nine fourth quarter points, while Jokic scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in eight minutes. Jokic led both teams with a +12 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter. 

Since James joined the Lakers in 2018, he has been stacking up individual accomplishments, but the Lakers have not accomplished much collectively other than winning the 2020 "bubble" championship: the Lakers missed the playoffs in 2019 and 2022, lost in the first round in 2021, and--as noted above--were swept by the Nuggets in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. James' personal milestones during that period are notable:

On January 23, 2018, James became the youngest member of the 30,000 point club.

Last night, James became the first player to score 40,000 career regular season points. That is a staggering number: The 10,000 point club is a milestone accomplishment that relatively few pro basketball players reach, so James is now the equivalent of a very good NBA career ahead of the 30,000 point mark! For further context, it should be noted that when LeBron James entered the NBA in 2004, the 30,000 point club had just five members: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Julius Erving. The 20,000 point club had 32 members (including the five players listed above). Rules changes and style of play changes have made both clubs somewhat less exclusive--the 30,000 point club now has eight members, and the 20,000 point club now has 55 members--but it is amazing that James has doubled the scoring output of all but 54 players out of the thousands who have played pro basketball for the past 75-plus years. James' durability and consistency is remarkable, as is the fact that he is still playing at an All-NBA level as a 39 year old. One hesitates to call any record unbreakable, but even with the lax defense being played in the NBA today it is difficult to foresee a player averaging 2000 points per season for 20 seasons, which is what it would take to match James' current total--and James conceivably could pad that total by 2000 or more points!

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Davis, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic

posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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