2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions
For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament
to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA
also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in
Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final
two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference
playoff spots.
Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers,
so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament
qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.
Before
explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most
significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.
After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time).
The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player.
The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series.
Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season):
There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a
generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor
Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox,
and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am
skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am
not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs
have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.
The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%.
The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.
Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.
This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).
Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama.
It is unfortunate that
media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while
Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have
consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.
There has been a
lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a
player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be
eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is
emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an
expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one
should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting
forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses.
The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.
Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.
This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.
Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.
I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.
Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.
Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates.
Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.
A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?
Here are my first round predictions:
Read more »Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM
76ers Make Magic Disappear, Chef Curry Cooks Clippers
The opener on the second night of NBA Play-In Tournament action featured two Eastern Conference teams that both did not meet expectations this season battling to secure the seventh seed. The shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers outlasted the offensively challenged Orlando Magic, 109-97. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 31 points and six assists. Kelly Oubre Jr. added 19 points while shooting 5-10 from three point range, significant perimeter production considering that the Magic shot just 7-27 (.259) from beyond the arc. VJ Edgecombe contributed 19 points plus a game-high tying 11 rebounds as the 76ers held their own on the glass (only losing the rebound battle 41-40) despite being without the services of Joel Embiid, who is recovering from an appendectomy. Andre Drummond filled part of the void in the middle with 14 points, 10 rebounds, and a team-high tying three blocked shots off of the bench. Paul George had 16 points on 6-16 field goal shooting along with five rebounds and five assists.
Desmond Bane scored a game-high 34 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he did not have much help. Paolo Banchero, who is supposed to be Orlando's franchise player, scored 18 points on 7-22 field goal shooting while committing a game-high six turnovers. Anthony Black had a solid game off of the bench (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting), but Franz Wagner did not do nearly enough (12 points on 5-11 field goal shooting), and Jalen Suggs (four points on 1-9 field goal shooting) misfired from all angles. It felt like anyone sitting courtside should wear a safety helmet to protect against Orlando's barrage of wildly missed shots, as the Magic shot 33-81 (.407) from the field. The first quarter set the tone for the entire game, with the 76ers
leading 28-24 after the first 12 minutes despite shooting just 10-25
(.400) from the field; the Magic shot 9-24 (.375) from the field. If you watched the game, you know that the quality of play did not improve--and if you did not watch the game you are probably not yearning for a detailed account of all of the missed shots. In TV parlance, if this were part of a highlight package it would be "score only."
Who would be silly enough to pick this lethargic, flawed Magic team to win a road game versus the 76ers? Oh, that would be me. In my defense, it's not like the 76ers are particularly impressive; they did not build a double digit lead against the Orlando Magical Bricklayers until the third quarter, so it will be interesting to see how the 76ers fare in a first round matchup versus the surprisingly good Boston Celtics. Meanwhile, the Magic have one last chance to make the playoffs if they beat Charlotte on Friday, but the Magic are not likely to find much success when confronted by Charlotte's size, stingy defense, and three point shooting. I still feel good about picking Charlotte to capture the eighth seed.
In the nightcap, Stephen Curry turned into the superhero known as Chef Curry and he cooked the L.A. Clippers with a game-high 35 points as his Golden State Warriors rallied from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit to post a 126-121 win. The Clippers, who started the season 6-21 before rallying to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, are now eliminated from playoff contention, while the Warriors must beat the Phoenix Suns on Friday night to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed. Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos scored 20 points each for the Warriors. Bennedict Mathurin led the Clippers with 23 points.
The Clippers jumped out to a 12-2 lead versus the Warriors, the only Play-In Tournament team with a losing record this season. The Warriors had lost nine games in a row to the Clippers in L.A. and seemed to be well on their way to a 10th setback--but then they authored their own 12-2 run to tie the score at 14 and that set the tone for the rest of the game: the Clippers repeatedly built double digit leads to seemingly take command before collapsing and letting the Warriors back in the game. The collapses largely correlated with Kawhi Leonard not being in the game: Leonard, who finished with 21 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, was the only Clippers' starter with a positive plus/minus number (+6); every other Clippers' starter had a plus/minus number of -7 or worse. The first half ended with Leonard driving coast to coast through Golden
State's entire team as if they were a bunch of elementary school kids,
culminating in a two-handed dunk, after which Leonard shook his head as
if to say, "You've to be kidding me if you think that is enough to even
slow me down." The Clippers led 61-53 at halftime.
Curry put on a vintage show in the third quarter, erupting for 16 points on 6-8 field goal shooting to single-handedly keep the Warriors in the game, but after Mathurin's two free throws pushed the Clippers' lead to 98-85 at the 9:53 mark of the fourth quarter the Warriors seemed to be running out of time and energy until Curry saved the day, along with timely 4-4 three point shooting from Al Horford and suffocating defense on Leonard by Draymond Green. Curry scored 11 fourth quarter points on 4-6 field goal shooting while posting a +15 plus/minus number in the final stanza, and the 39 year old Horford scored 12 of his 14 points in the fourth quarter. Green authored his typical "triple single" (seven points, team-high nine assists, six rebounds), had a 0 plus/minus number, and did not score in the fourth quarter, but he stole the ball from Leonard twice in the closing moments, and played a major role in holding Leonard scoreless in the fourth quarter until Leonard had a meaningless dunk with 16.9 seconds remaining.
L.A. coach Ty Lue was disgusted after the game (though he used a different phrase when asked to describe his feelings), lamenting "We had the game in our hands" but gave it away by making numerous "silly plays." Not surprisingly, Golden State coach Steve Kerr was thrilled with the result, and he thanked NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for creating the Play-In Tournament, noting that otherwise the Warriors' season would already be over--and that raises an interesting point, albeit not the point that Kerr wanted to make: over the course of the 82 game regular season, the Clippers won five more games than the Warriors, but because Curry and Horford got hot in the fourth quarter of one game the Clippers are eliminated while the Warriors have a chance to make the playoffs. Phoenix finished eight games ahead of Golden State during the regular season, but the Warriors can wipe out months of work by beating the Suns just once.
This format may work out great for Kerr, his team, and his team's fans this season, but the message that this sends is that the regular season does not matter--and this message, conveyed by the league office, team executives, and the players themselves in many ways during recent years, is how we have ended up with tanking, load management, and a league whose regular season is becoming increasingly unwatchable. Instead of the NBA having a great regular season, the NBA produces a mediocre regular season and hopes that some excitement in the Play-In Tournament and the playoffs will be enough to satisfy the fans who pay high ticket prices and streaming fees.
Labels: Desmond Bane, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Orlando Magic, Paolo Banchero, Philadelphia 76ers, Stephen Curry, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:44 AM
Hornets Douse Heat in Overtime Thriller, Trail Blazers Eclipse Suns With Big Fourth Quarter Comeback
The NBA Play-In Tournament has produced more than its share of boring blowouts, but Tuesday night featured two competitive and exciting games. The action opened with the Charlotte Hornets' 127-126 overtime win versus the Miami Heat--an instant classic featuring 16 lead changes, 17 ties, and many clutch plays by both teams. LaMelo Ball not only scored a game-high 30 points, but he delivered the game-winning shot on a powerful drive to the hoop with 4.7 seconds left in overtime. The Heat had no timeouts, so Davion Mitchell raced to the hoop to try to score, but Miles Bridges swatted away his layup attempt as time expired.
Ball shot just 12-31 from the field--including 2-16 from three point range--but in addition to the game-winning shot he had a game-high 10 assists plus the game's second best plus/minus number (+15). Bridges had 28 points and nine rebounds while shooting 5-10 from three point range. Brandon Miller contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists while also shooting 5-10 from three point range. Coby White scored 19 points, shot 5-8 from three point range, and notched the game's best plus/minus number (+21). The Hornets had 17 offensive rebounds, and they outrebounded the Heat 54-48 overall.
Mitchell paced the Heat with 28 points, Andrew Wiggins scored 27 points, and Tyler Herro added 23 points despite shooting just 7-18 from the field. Kal'el Ware had 12 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high five blocked shots. Norman Powell--the Heat's only All-Star this season--scored 11 points in just 19 minutes and was the only Heat player who had a double digit plus/minus number (+11).
The Hornets took a 26-18 lead at the 3:33 mark of the first quarter on the strength of offensive rebounding and three point shooting, but the Heat trimmed the deficit to 26-24 by the end of the first quarter, foreshadowing how this game would be a back and forth struggle.
The Hornets led 30-26 at the 10:58 mark of the second quarter when Ball grabbed the ankle of an off balance Bam Adebayo, who went crashing to the floor and left the game with a lower back injury--but no foul was called on the play, and the referees did not review the sequence, much to the chagrin of Miami coach Erik Spoelstra, who said after the game that Ball should have been ejected. Lead referee Zach Zarba explained to Amazon Prime's Cassidy Hubbarth that a change of possession occurred before the referees had a chance to stop play, so by rule they were not able to review what happened; this seems to be a major loophole in the rules: why should a player get away with a flagrant foul because the referees were looking the wrong way for a split second? If a player is injured badly enough that he cannot return to the game, there should be some mechanism for the referees to review how that injury happened. Adebayo had six points, three rebounds, and a +1 plus/minus number in 11 minutes up to that point.
The Heat battled back to go up 39-37 midway through the second quarter, and they enjoyed a 54-52 halftime lead. Mitchell and Wiggins led the Heat with 10 first half points each, while Ball scored 17 first half points for the Hornets, who shot just 7-21 (.333) from beyond the arc.
The Hornets made a 10-0 run to take an 84-79 lead at the 1:28 mark of the third quarter. During the ensuing timeout, Hubbarth reported that Adebayo would not return to the game. The Hornets pushed the margin to eight (93-85) early in the fourth quarter before the Heat countered with a 12-0 run to take a 97-93 lead with 7:25 remaining in regulation. Herro's three pointer at the 2:16 mark put the Heat up 111-105, but Bridges' three pointer cut the lead in half and then Miller drained a three pointer after Jaime Jaquez Jr. split a pair of free throws. Herro made two free throws to put Miami up 114-111. The Hornets called timeout, and then White hit a tough three pointer from the corner to tie the score; an interesting aspect of that play is that Kon Knueppel--who led the NBA this season with 273 three point field goals made, setting the NBA rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record--was relegated to the bench and not even used as a decoy. Knueppel did not play at all in the overtime, and he finished with just six points on 2-12 field goal shooting, including 0-6 from beyond the arc. Herro's three pointer at the buzzer was off the mark, sending the game to overtime.
The Hornets led 123-118 at the 1:33 mark of overtime, but Herro went on a 6-0 run to give the Heat a 126-125 lead with 8.7 seconds remaining. Herro's burst included three clutch free throws after being fouled by Ball on a three point field goal attempt. Ball made up for his foul gaffe by scoring the game-winning layup.
The Hornets can grab the Eastern
Conference's eighth seed with a win on Friday, but the Heat are eliminated from playoff contention.
In the second game of Amazon Prime's doubleheader, Deni Avdija poured in a game-high 41 points on 15-22 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high 12 assists and grabbing seven rebounds to power the Portland Trail Blazers to a 114-110 road win versus the Phoenix Suns. This clinched Portland's first playoff berth since 2021. The Suns can still make the playoffs with a victory on Friday night versus the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State Warriors game. Avdija looked like an in-shape, healthy Luka Doncic as he repeatedly broke down the Suns' defense with dribble drives culminating in shots in the paint, drawn fouls, or passes deftly sprayed to open perimeter shooters. Two-time NBA champion Jrue Holiday added 21 points, while Jerami Grant exploded for 16 points off of the bench in 19 minutes.
Jalen Green paced the Suns with 35 points. Devin Booker scored an inefficient 22 points, shooting just 7-17 from the field and 8-13 from the free throw line. Dillon Brooks had 20 points on 6-10 field goal shooting before fouling out with 16.1 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
The Suns jumped out to a 14-7 lead by the 8:40 mark of the first quarter, and it looked like the moment might be a little too big for the young Trail Blazers, but Avdija settled his team down with 12 points and five assists in the second quarter as the Trail Blazers forged a 55-41 lead at the 5:23 mark of the second quarter after Grant made a three pointer. The Suns did not let the game get out of reach, and they pulled to within 65-62 by halftime. Green scored 22 first half points, while Avdija had 16 points and seven assists.
The Trail Blazers pushed their lead to 11 points twice during the third quarter, but they clung to an 83-82 lead heading into the final stanza. Green's jumper at the 11:44 mark of the fourth quarter gave the Suns their first lead of the second half, 84-83. The Suns extended their margin to 11 points twice during the fourth quarter, but an 8-0 Portland run slashed the lead to 100-97 with 4:14 remaining in the fourth quarter. At that point, Donovan Clingan committed a flagrant foul against Brooks, who sank two free throws to extend the Suns' lead to 102-97. Green's three pointer with 3:31 to go put the Suns up 105-97, but a 7-0 Portland run in the next 1:02 made the score 105-104. Booker split a pair of free throws and Grant answered with a three pointer to put the Trail Blazers up 107-106. The lead changed hands four times in the final 1:34, with Avdija putting the Trail Blazers up for good with driving layup with 16.1 seconds remaining. Green missed a long three pointer on the Suns' final possession, and then Grant ended the scoring with a fast break dunk.
In my NBA Play-Tournament preview, I picked Charlotte to beat Miami and Phoenix to beat Portland, so I am 1-1 so far.
Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, LaMelo Ball, Miami Heat, Miles Bridges, NBA Play-In Tournament, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 2:58 AM
The 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament, Featuring the Worst of the Non-Tankers
The 2025-26 season will long be remembered for the NBA de facto becoming two leagues: a 20 team league in which teams competed to qualify for the playoffs or at least for the Play-In Tournament, and a 10 team league in which teams competed to lose as many games as possible. The standings reflect this sharp divide; instead of wins and losses being distributed relatively evenly, the 10th seeded team in the Eastern Conference finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the 10th seeded team in the Western Conference also finished 11 games ahead of the 11th seeded team. The 10th seeded team in each conference qualifies for the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the teams finishing below 10th head straight to the NBA Draft Lottery. Last season, the Eastern Conference's 10th seeded team finished seven games ahead of the 11th seeded team, and the Western Conference's 10th seeded team finished just three games ahead of the 11th seeded team. During the 2023-24 season, the margins were four games and five games respectively, and in 2022-23 the margins were five games and two games respectively. In 1995-96, when the Chicago Bulls won a then-record 72 regular season games and eight teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs without an NBA Play-In Tournament, the margins between eighth place and ninth place in each conference were one game and three games respectively.
In short, to the extent that tanking existed historically it was much more limited in scope than it was this season: fewer teams tanked, and they did so for a smaller portion of the season. NBA fans can thank "stat gurus"--who act like they have figured out the mathematical solution to every problem--and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver for the "tank-tacular" NBA, a league that charges full ticket prices and hefty streaming fees for the "privilege" of watching a third of the teams race to the bottom. Have any of the "stat gurus" noticed that many of the same teams are tanking each year, which would suggest to a sensible person that tanking is not the optimal way to build a winning team?
Most of the 2026 Play-In Tournament teams are not as good or as intriguing as the NBA's media partners assert, but four of these teams--two from the Eastern Conference and two from the Western Conference--will survive to participate in the NBA playoffs, which begin on April 18.
Last season, five of the eight Play-In Tournament teams had losing records. Not surprisingly, when movable forces face resistible objects the result is not scintillating basketball; the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament began with the 41-41 Orlando Magic eviscerating the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks, 120-95. This season, rampant tanking in the bottom third of the standings enabled seven of the eight Play-In Tournament teams to avoid having losing records.
The
2026 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 44-38 Charlotte Hornets hosting the 43-39 Miami Heat. ESPN's Charles Barkley has been calling the Hornets "The Dream Team" for months, and he was only half-joking: after starting the season 6-16, the Hornets went 38-22 the rest of the way, including a nine game winning streak featuring wins over San Antonio and Houston. The Hornets ranked first in three point field goals made as Kon Knueppel set the single season rookie record and the Charlotte franchise record for three point field goals made, and his league-leading 273 were just one more than his teammate LaMelo Ball's 272. The Hornets ranked third in three point field goal percentage (.378) but they are not as adept at making other shots, ranking 25th in overall field goal percentage (.460) and 13th in scoring (116.0 ppg). They finished fifth in rebounding, seventh in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Brandon Miller (20.2 ppg), Ball (20.1 ppg), and Knueppel (18.5 ppg) lead a balanced scoring attack. The Hornets have not made the playoffs since 2016, and their top nine players have combined to participate in zero career playoff games.
The Heat boast about their "culture" and their championship aspirations, but they have not advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2023. They used to be known for being a slow tempo team that played tough defense, but this season they ranked second in scoring and 22nd in points allowed. The Heat scored at least 135 points in 15 games, and they won 14 of those contests. First-time All-Star Norm Powell led the team in scoring (21.7 ppg) but he played in just 58 games. Tyler Herro averaged 20.5 ppg in 33 games. Bam Adebayo averaged 20.1 ppg, the second highest mark in his career--boosted by his 83 point outburst versus the defenseless, tanking Washington "Wheeze-hards." The Heat have been the unofficial kings of the Play-In Tournament: in 2025, they became the first 10th seeded team to qualify for the playoffs, and in 2023 they emerged from the Play-Tournament to make an improbable run to the NBA Finals before losing to the Denver Nuggets.
The Heat won the first two matchups with the Hornets before getting smoked 136-106 on March 17. Adebayo missed that game due to right calf tightness. I expect the Hornets' defense and three point shooting to cause problems for the Heat, so I am picking the Hornets to beat the Heat. The loser of that game will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the winner will face the loser of Wednesday night's Philadelphia-Orlando game to earn the Eastern Conference's eighth seed.
In Tuesday's nightcap, the 45-37 Phoenix Suns host the 42-20 Portland Trail Blazers. The Suns seemed to be rebuilding after trading Kevin Durant to Houston in a seven team deal last summer, but instead they won nine more games sans Durant this season than they won with him in 2024-25. The Suns' top players missed a lot of games in both seasons, so health does not explain the improvement. Not surprisingly, the Suns are worse offensively without Durant, ranking 26th in scoring and 28th in field goal percentage this season after ranking 18th and 11th respectively in those categories last season. The difference is on defense, where the Suns improved from 22nd in points allowed to sixth while also inching up from 21st to 15th in defensive field goal percentage. Devin Booker led the Suns in scoring (26.1 ppg) and assists (6.0 apg), while two of the players acquired in the Durant deal have been major contributors: Dillon Brooks averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg and Jalen Green chipped in 17.8 ppg.
The Portland Trail Blazers have not made the playoffs since 2021 and have not advanced past the first round since their fluky 2019 run to the Western Conference Finals, but Deni Avdija's emergence as a first-time All-Star helped this young team improve just enough to at least contend for postseason play. Avdija led the team in scoring (career-high 24.2 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.7 apg) while also averaging 6.9 rpg. Shaedon Sharpe contributed a career-high 20.8 ppg, while Jerami Grant bounced back from an awful 2024-25 season (14.4 ppg on .373 field goal shooting) to score 18.6 ppg on solid .453 field goal shooting. First year head coach Tiago Splitter did an admirable job replacing Chauncey Billups at the last minute after Billups was placed on leave by the NBA because of his alleged role in a two-pronged illegal gambling scandal. As is often the case with teams that finish around .500, the Trail Blazers have mediocre rankings in many statistical categories, but they finished sixth in rebounding and seventh in blocked shots, numbers that hint at their youth and athleticism.
The Suns won the first two head to head matchups in high scoring games at Portland, and then the Trail Blazers won 92-77 at Phoenix. Booker and Brooks did not play in that game, and Avdija played less than a minute, so that contest does not say much about these teams at full strength. I expect Avdija to have a great all-around game, but Booker and Brooks will each score 25-plus points in a Phoenix win. The winner of that game will earn the Western Conference's seventh seed, while the loser will face the winner of Wednesday night's L.A. Clippers-Golden State game to claim the Western Conference's eighth seed.
On Wednesday night, the 45-37 Philadelphia 76ers will host the 45-37 Orlando Magic. The tanking teams should stop hiring "stat gurus" and instead take a graduate course on "The Process": after the 76ers reached the second round of the playoffs in 2012, and then missed the playoffs by four games in 2013, the 76ers hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager and embarked on a four year tanking program. As a result, the 76ers chose Joel Embiid with the third overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, but in the next nine seasons he failed to advance past the second round--and he is currently sidelined after appendicitis surgery. Since "stat gurus" claim to love numbers, let the record show that the 76ers lost on purpose for four years--and a decade later all of that intentional losing has yet to produce a better playoff team than their 2012 squad. I realize that some "stat gurus" are as slow as they are stubborn, but objectively the numbers prove that tanking does not work.
First-time All-Star Tyrese Maxey had a breakout season, leading the 76ers with a career-high 28.3 ppg. He does not shrink in the playoffs like Embiid does, but he also has not proven that he can carry a team very far. Rookie VJ Edgecombe averaged 16.0 ppg, and he is the only one of the 76ers' top five scorers who played in at least 75 games. Injuries and a 25 game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs limited Paul George to just 37 games, during which he averaged 17.3 ppg. Insert joke about the drugs not actually enhancing George's play very much--and his playoff resume is nothing to write home about.
The Magic were considered to be a team on the rise after going 47-35 in 2023-24, but something has just not clicked since then. Injuries have not helped, but even when this team is at or near full strength it does not strike fear into the hearts of legit contenders. All they had to do to host Philadelphia in the Play-In Tournament was beat a Boston team that rested its key players in the last regular season game, but instead the Magic fell flat on their faces. Paolo Banchero made the All-Star team in his second season (2024) and has not been back since. He led the Magic in scoring (22.2 ppg) and rebounding (8.4 ppg), but the initial thought/hope that he could develop into a franchise player now seems to be unrealistic. Offseason acquisition Desmond Bane did his part, averaging 20.1 ppg while being one of just 18 NBA players who participated in all 82 games.
With the 76ers at home and the Magic floundering around, it is tempting to pick Philadelphia, but the 76ers are 24-14 with Embiid this season, and 21-23 without him; in other words, new year but same old story: with Embiid, the 76ers are a 50 win regular season team that is just good enough to lose early in the playoffs, and without Embiid the 76ers are not good at all. If the 76ers were completely healthy, I would not pick them to advance past the second round this season, and in their current state I expect even the enigmatic Orlando Magic to beat them.
Wednesday's action will conclude with the 42-40 L.A. Clippers hosting the 37-45 Golden State Warriors. The Clippers started the season 6-16 before cutting ties with Chris Paul. They soon went on a six game winning streak, and their 11-4 January record lifted them above the tanking teams and into fringe playoff contention. The Clippers did some more addition by subtraction in early February by jettisoning 36 year old James Harden in exchange for 26 year old Darius Garland. This is just the second season since 2017 that Kawhi Leonard played in at least 65 games; he conveniently landed exactly on the number that keeps him eligible for postseason award consideration, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams after averaging a career-high 27.9 ppg with shooting splits of .505/.387/.892. Garland has been a dependable second scoring option, averaging 19.9 ppg in 19 games with the Clippers.
After Jimmy Butler played just 38 games before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and injuries limited Stephen Curry to 43 games, future Hall of Famer Draymond Green picked up the slack--and led Golden State to the last Play-In Tournament slot after Dallas, New Orleans, Memphis, Utah, and Sacramento decided to abandon even the pretense of trying to win. We have seen this Draymond Green experience before: in 2019-20 with Curry and Klay Thompson sidelined by injuries, Green led the Warriors to a 15-50 record. Green's fans describe him as essential member of four Golden State championship teams, but a credible argument could be made that his flagrant fouls, suspensions, and negative impact on team chemistry cost the Warriors almost as many championships as he helped them win--and the word "helped" is used advisedly: as the third and sometimes fourth best player on championship teams, Green was not as dominant as Dennis Rodman--a lock down defender and seven-time rebounding champion--nor was he as clutch as Robert Horry.
This season, the Warriors were 24-19 with Curry, and 13-26 without him, with Green along for the ride in either scenario. The Warriors ranked 14th in points allowed, 22nd in scoring, 23rd in defensive field goal percentage, 24th in field goal percentage, and 25th in rebounding; some of those numbers are skewed a bit by Curry's extended absences, but the reality is that the Warriors are what their record says they are: not very good. The Clippers are not the second coming of the 1996 Chicago Bulls, but with Leonard scoring an efficient 30 points and Garland adding 25 points the Clippers will put the Warriors out of their misery.
In Friday's Play-In Tournament games, I expect Charlotte to beat Philadelphia and L.A. to defeat Portland. As noted above, Charlotte is inexperienced but the Hornets are stout defensively, while the 76ers are the predictable product of years of tanking. The Clippers sans Harden and Paul will complete their rise from the basement to the penthouse (or at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs).
Thus, if
my predictions are correct, the Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns will claim the
seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded
teams will be the Charlotte Hornets and the L.A. Clippers.
Watching a third of the NBA tank into oblivion this season was not enjoyable, and even finding the games may be challenging for the casual fan, so it should be noted that all of the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament games are being shown exclusively on Amazon Prime.
The Play-In Tournament has yet to cure tanking or provide consistently high quality basketball, but maybe we will be fortunate to have at least a few entertaining games as appetizers before the playoffs begin.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2025
Heat Bludgeon Bulls and Mavericks Topple Kings to Stay Alive in the NBA Play-In Tournament (April 17, 2025)
Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths (April 16, 2025)
Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2025)
2024
76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)
Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)
The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons (April 15, 2024)
2023
Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)
2022
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
2021
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Labels: Charlotte Hornets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, Play-In Tournament, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:26 PM
