Pacers Rout Thunder 108-91 to Force a Seventh Game in Oklahoma City
The Indiana Pacers fell behind 10-2 to the Oklahoma City Thunder at home in game six before outscoring the Thunder 62-32 the rest of the first half en route to a dominant 108-91 victory to tie the series at 3-3. The game was not as close as the final score may suggest; the Pacers led by as many as 31 points in the second half, were ahead by 25-plus points for substantial portions of the second half, and their fourth quarter lead did not drop below 20 points until the final 1:18. The Pacers outrebounded the Thunder 46-41, and forced 21 turnovers that they converted into 19 points while only committing 11 turnovers that the Thunder converted into 13 points. Those extra possessions were a major factor in a game during which both teams shot worse than .420 from the field. Another significant factor was that the Pacers shot 15-42 (.357) from three point range while holding the Thunder to 8-30 (.267) three point shooting; the Pacers did not shoot great, but the Thunder's terrible long range shooting was too much to overcome when the Thunder also lost the possession game by a wide margin.
The Pacers shot 0-8 from the field to start the game, and they shot just 8-25 (.320) from the field in the first quarter, but they already led 28-25 after the first 12 minutes because they launched four more field goal attempts than the Thunder while making five first quarter three pointers and holding the Thunder to just one first quarter three pointer. As is often the case in the NBA, the first quarter set the tone for the game: the Pacers were the aggressors, the Pacers attempted more field goals, and the Pacers made timely three pointers while the Thunder misfired from beyond the arc.
In today's NBA featuring volume three point shooting and fast-paced play, a 22 point halftime lead is not insurmountable, but what killed the Thunder is that they did not score from the 1:46 mark of the second quarter until 6:57 remained in the third quarter, a nearly seven minute drought during which the Pacers expanded their advantage from 58-42 to 70-42; the Pacers were not burning up the nets by scoring 12 points in seven minutes, but failing to score at all while already trailing by double digits signaled that this was just not the Thunder's night.
The Pacers are a better and tougher team than I realized. It would have been easy to fold after losing game five in convincing fashion versus a team that is justifiably considered the favorite, but the Pacers showed resolve not seen from some teams that are more highly touted. The balanced Pacers attack featured six double figure scorers who each had between 10 and 20 points. Obi Toppin, the pride of the University of Dayton, led the Pacers with 20 points in 23 minutes off of the bench. He also had six rebounds, a game-high four treys, and two steals. Andrew Nembhard added 17 points, four assists, and three steals. Pascal Siakam had 16 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and three assists. Tyrese Haliburton did not seem to be unduly hampered by his much-discussed calf injury, finishing with 14 points, five assists, two steals, and just one turnover; he had a game-high +25 plus/minus number, and he made those who suggested that he should be benched look quite foolish. T.J. McConnell provided an important spark off of the bench with 12 points, nine rebounds, a game-high six assists, and a game-high four steals that matched the entire Thunder team's output in a category that they are used to dominating.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He had four rebounds, two assists, and no steals or blocked shots, a marked contrast with his 31 points, 10 assists, four blocked shots, and two steals in the Thunder's game five win. In game six, Gilgeous-Alexander logged a "Harden" with more turnovers (game-high eight) than field goals made (seven). Jalen Williams followed up his 40 point game five masterpiece with just 16 points in game six. Chet Holmgren had four points on 2-9 field goal shooting, plus six rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots.
If the Thunder lose this series, they will rue falling behind 2-1 after
inexplicably putting Cason Wallace in the starting lineup in place of
Isaiah Hartenstein during the first three games. The Thunder went 45-8 during the regular season when
Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the playoffs with
Hartenstein as a starter prior to the NBA Finals; the Thunder are now
2-1 in the NBA Finals with Hartenstein as a starter, and 1-2 when he did not
start. The lineup change did not have a discernible impact on game six, but the larger point is that if the Thunder had deployed their regular starting lineup in each of the first five games they may have won the series at home in game five instead of being pushed to a seventh game.
The Thunder's effort level and efficiency from opening tip until final buzzer indicated that their players
had the attitude that this was not a must win game because they will
have game seven at home. The Thunder are 18-2 after a loss during the
regular season and playoffs, so they have good reason to be confident,
but Tex Winter often said, "Everything turns on a trifle":
in game seven, a turned ankle, a bad call, or a
funny bounce of the ball could change the game, the series, and the way
that both teams are remembered. Game to game momentum in a series does
not exist, because the next game is played in a different arena under
different circumstances beginning with a 0-0 score, not a double digit lead
for the winner of the previous game--but momentum within a game can exist, and can decide a
series in game seven.
However, even though the underdog has a
puncher's chance once a series reaches a seventh game, the reality is
that the home team wins NBA game sevens over 74% of the time. The
Thunder are in control of this series until proven otherwise, and the
Thunder have demonstrated that blowout losses do not impact their
confidence or their level of play. In the second round, the Thunder lost to the Denver Nuggets 119-107 in game six, and then the Thunder won game seven, 125-93. After taking a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder lost to the Minnesota Timberwolves 143-101, and then the Thunder won the next two games to close out the series.
The Pacers' dominant win will almost certainly inspire a lot of overreaction, which is a staple of NBA coverage (and sports coverage in general). Regardless of any hype to the contrary, a blowout Thunder win is the most likely game seven outcome, followed
by a close Thunder win; a blowout Thunder win may seem unimaginable now in the immediate wake of the Pacers' dominant game six performance, but game six will be a distant memory when the comfortable and confident Thunder race out to an early game seven lead. A close Pacers win is possible but unlikely, and
a blowout Pacers win at Oklahoma City is very unlikely barring unusual
circumstance (injuries, foul trouble, or early ejections).
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM
Thunder's One-Two Punch Knocks Out Pacers in Game Five
Jalen Williams scored a playoff career-high 40 points, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points to lead the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 120-109 win versus the Indiana Pacers in game five of the NBA Finals. The Thunder seized a 3-2 advantage, and put the Pacers behind in a series for the first time in the 2025 playoffs. Williams is the third youngest player with three straight 25 point games in the NBA Finals since the 1976 ABA-NBA merger; the only two younger players to accomplish that feat in that time period are Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Durant. The 24 year old Williams is also the fifth youngest player to score at least 40 points in an NBA Finals game, trailing only Magic Johnson (20 years old in the 1980 NBA Finals), Rick Barry (three times in 1967 as a 23 year old), Russell Westbrook (23 years old in 2012), and Jerry West (23 years old in 1962).
The Thunder's one-two punch is usually Gilgeous-Alexander followed by Williams, but in this game reversing the order proved to be very effective. Williams shot 14-25 from the field while also contributing six rebounds, four assists, and one steal in 35 minutes. He had just one turnover. Gilgeous-Alexander shot 9-21 from the field, dished for a game-high 10 assists, logged a game-high four blocked shots, and swiped two steals in 38 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander has produced 12 games this postseason with at least 30 points and at least 10 assists, breaking the record of 11 formerly held by Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Gilgeous-Alexander had three turnovers, which is an acceptable number given his high usage as a scorer/playmaker. Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander attacked the paint, and that enabled them to repeatedly draw fouls: Williams shot 9-12 from the free throw line, while Gilgeous-Alexander connected on 13 of his 14 free throw attempts.
Aaron Wiggins (14 points, five rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench) and Cason Wallace (11 points, four steals in 17 minutes off of the bench) were the only other Thunder players who scored in double figures, but when the top two players combine for 71 points not much other offensive support is needed. Chet Holmgren scored nine points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds, and blocked three shots, so he made a positive impact despite shooting just 4-15 from the field. Lu Dort added nine points, eight rebounds, three assists, and two steals, while Alex Caruso scored just two points on 1-8 field goal shooting but was a defensive menace with four steals and one blocked shot.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 28 points on 9-15 field goal shooting while also snaring six rebounds, dishing for five assists, poaching three steals, and blocking two shots, but he had six of the Pacers' 23 turnovers. T.J. McConnell scored 18 points on 8-14 field goal shooting in 22 minutes off of the bench while also accumulating four rebounds, four assists, and two steals. He had the Pacers' second best plus/minus number (+4), and he had 13 third quarter points as the Pacers outscored the Thunder 34-28 in that stanza to trim the Thunder's 59-45 halftime lead to 87-79. Bennedict Mathurin scored seven points and had a team-high eight rebounds, and he posted the team's best plus/minus number (+6) despite shooting just 2-11 from the field. Tyrese Haliburton, who has repeatedly saved the Pacers with big shots in clutch moments, had a scoreless first half on 0-5 field goal shooting before finishing with four points on 0-6 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists in 34 minutes. He was limited by a right calf injury but--as Pacers' Coach Rick Carlisle correctly noted during his postgame remarks--many players are limited by injuries at this stage of the season.
The Thunder scored 32 points off of Indiana's turnovers while conceding just nine points from their 11 turnovers, and those extra possessions enabled the Thunder to prevail despite shooting just 40-94 (.426) from the field while also losing the rebounding battle, 50-45. The Pacers led the Thunder in points in the paint (48-42) and second chance points (21-17), but the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure with the dynamic scoring/playmaking of Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander decided the outcome.
The Thunder led for the final 44:52 of the game, and built the margin to
18 (56-38) at the 2:29 mark of the second quarter. McConnell's
fantastic third quarter helped the Pacers to chip away, and the Pacers
pulled to within two points (95-93) after Siakam hit a three pointer at
the 8:30 mark of the fourth quarter. The Thunder then went on an 18-4
run to seal the game and, most likely, the series; during that crucial
stretch, Williams scored eight points and Gilgeous-Alexander scored five
points.
Oklahoma City probably would have already won the series if Thunder Coach Mark Daigenault had not blundered by changing his starting lineup prior to game one, inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein; the Thunder lost that game and trailed 2-1 before Daigneault went back to the starting lineup that posted a 45-8 regular season record and a 12-4 record in the playoffs. The Thunder won game four after putting Hartenstein back in the starting lineup and are now 2-0 in this series with the starting lineup that carried them to most of their wins in the regular season and the playoffs. Hartenstein's game five numbers--four points, eight rebounds, four assists--are not gaudy, but the goal is to win games, not to be "analytically correct." With Hartenstein in the starting lineup, all of the Thunder's players are in their natural and accustomed roles, which enabled the Thunder to not only build a 29-17 first quarter lead but to also withstand the inevitable Indiana comeback.
Just at it would be wrong to evaluate the Thunder's starting lineup change based solely on the numbers posted by Hartenstein or Wallace outside of the larger context of the team's overall play, it would also be wrong to assert that Carlisle erred by not giving McConnell more minutes at Haliburton's expense in game five. McConnell is a bench player who performs best against bench players while his minutes are maintained within a certain range. Call it the "Trevor Ariza effect." Carlisle explained after game five that he managed McConnell's late game
minutes based on McConnell being fatigued and making some errors that
seemed to be a result of that fatigue. A "stat guru" might argue that
because McConnell scored 18 points in 22 minutes he would have scored 36
points in 44 minutes, but that is not how NBA basketball works; if
McConnell had played 22 more minutes it is much more likely that his
turnovers and missed field goals would have increased than that his
point total would have doubled.
"Stat gurus" focus too much on per minute and per possession statistics without understanding or acknowledging other factors, and that faulty, limited way of conceptualizing the game leads "stat gurus" to make flawed assertions, such as declaring that Manu Ginobili was just as good as Kobe Bryant, which is demonstrably false for a variety of reasons, including the difference between being a player who logs heavy minutes as the number one option versus being a player who logs limited minutes while often playing against bench players. Understanding that difference is one reason that I correctly predicted that James Harden would not lead a team to the NBA Finals as a number one option even though he was efficient as the third option for the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook Thunder team that reached the 2012 NBA Finals.
Talking about "adjustments" and substitution patterns is one way that commentators attempt to sound well-informed even when they lack foundational knowledge about the NBA game. The reality is that the best "adjustment" is playing harder. Coaches usually have good reasons for their substitution patterns, based on their observations of their players in practices and in games. The Hartenstein-Wallace change is an unusual example of a coach outsmarting himself--probably based on some "stat guru" feeding him nonsense about the supposed advantages of using a small lineup against Indiana--and it is fortunate for the Thunder that Daigenault was not too stubborn to reverse course before the Thunder fell into a 3-1 hole.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM
