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Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Early Season Notes About Some High Profile Teams
It is way too early to make any definitive--or even preliminary--conclusions about the just-started NBA season, but here are a few observations about what we have seen so far, starting with last season's "Final Four" teams and then looking at several other teams that receive a lot of attention.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder started the season 4-0 without the injured Jalen Williams, who made the All-NBA Third Team and the All-Star team last season. Their margin for error and their victory margins are much smaller than last season; the Thunder currently have a point differential of 7.7 ppg, which is very good by normal standards but just pedestrian compared to the all-time single season record that they set last season (12.9 ppg). The Thunder are scoring 121.0 ppg, just above the 120.5 ppg that they averaged last season, but four games is a small sample size and two of the Thunder's four games went to double overtime. In their two regulation length wins, they scored 117 points and 101 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an even bigger load than he did last season when he won the scoring title, the regular season MVP, the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the NBA Finals MVP; he joined Michael Jordan as the only players in the last 50 years to total at least 120 points in the first three games of a season, and he is the only player to accomplish this feat while shooting at least .500 from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is also just the third player to score at least 20 points in at least 75 straight games, with his streak only trailing one streak by Oscar Robertson (79) and two streaks by Wilt Chamberlain (96 and 126).
Indiana Pacers: This will be a challenging season for the Pacers, who are without both injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton and long-time starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks last summer. The Pacers started 0-3, competing hard in a double overtime loss to the Thunder in the season opener before being blown out by Memphis (128-103) and losing a close game to Minnesota (114-110). It should be noted that Minnesota's best player, Anthony Edwards, played only three minutes in that game.
Last season, Haliburton led a high octane offense that ranked seventh in the league in scoring; through three games, the Pacers rank 20th in scoring, and an alarming 28th in points allowed.
The Pacers are well-coached by Rick Carlisle, and their identity is to play hard, but they have lost too much talent to be a playoff team this season. They are relying heavily on Pascal Siakam, who is doing all that he can to keep the team afloat (26.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 6.0 apg). Bennedict Mathurin averaged 31.0 ppg in two games, but he suffered a toe injury in the second game and sat out the Pacers' third game. It is uncertain when he will return to action.
New York Knicks: The Knicks opened the season by beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 119-111, and then they defeated the depleted Boston Celtics before losing to the Miami Heat, who are missing injured All-Star guard Tyler Herro. The Knicks are averaging 110.3 ppg and rank second in the league with 46.3 three point field goal attempts per game; last season, the Knicks scored 115.8 ppg and averaged 34.1 three point field goal attempts per game (27th in the league).
The Knicks replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Although the Knicks are scoring a bit less so far this season, their offense appears to be running at a faster pace and definitely involves more three point shooting. Last season, the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, so this season is NBA Finals or bust for the Knicks.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota started 2-1, but two-time All-NBA Second Team selection Anthony Edwards played just three minutes in the third game (a 114-110 win versus Indiana) before suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for at least a week. Last night, the Timberwolves sans Edwards fell to the Denver Nuggets, 127-114. The Timberwolves started 6-6 last season and recovered to earn the sixth seed before advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. Julius Randle is averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 5.3 apg. The Timberwolves cannot reasonably expect to reach the Western Conference Finals again from the sixth seed, so it is important for them to win some games while Edwards is out, and then pick up the pace after he returns.
Cleveland Cavaliers: After losing 119-111 to the New York Knicks in the season opener for both teams, the Cavaliers reeled off three straight wins, capped by a 116-95 dismantling of the Detroit Pistons last night. The Pistons, tapped by some commentators as a potential Eastern Conference contender, fell to 2-2 and trailed by as much as 35 points before the contest entered what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."
Donovan Mitchell has been fantastic through four games, averaging 31.3 ppg while shooting .564 from the field. Four other Cavaliers are each averaging at least 13.5 ppg, picking up the slack for injured All-Star guard Darius Garland and injured three point specialist Max Strus.
The Cavaliers have proven that they are an excellent regular season team--finishing first in the Eastern Conference last season with a 64-18 record after starting 15-0--but, like the Knicks, their season will be deemed successful based solely on making a deep playoff run. The Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals.
Boston Celtics: Like the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics face an uphill climb this season due to an injured star player and a depleted roster. Jayson Tatum is expected to miss the entire season, and key players Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet are now playing for other teams. Tatum is one of the NBA's five best players, and one of the underrated aspects of his greatness is defense, particularly defensive rebounding. During their 1-3 start, the Celtics rank 17th in rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding. Last season, the Celtics ranked eighth in rebounding and seventh in defensive rebounding, with Tatum leading the team in both categories by wide margins.
The Celtics also miss Tatum's scoring and his shot creation; so far this season, the Celtics rank 23rd in field goal percentage, 25th in three point field goal percentage, and 10th in three point field goals made; last season, the Celtics ranked 19th, 10th, and first respectively in those categories, with Tatum being the primary scorer and primary facilitator.
Golden State Warriors: It feels like the Warriors are living on borrowed time with an aging, injury-prone roster, but so far they are 3-1, including an overtime victory versus a Denver team that looks like a championship contender. Casual fans and uninformed commentators tend to focus on Golden State's offense and specifically Stephen Curry's three point shooting, but the Warriors' championship teams were excellent defensively; their most recent title-winning team in 2022 ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed. The Warriors currently rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and if they continue at that pace on defense then they are unlikely to be a contending team regardless of how many three pointers Curry makes.
Curry is leading the league in free throw percentage (he is perfect in 22 attempts), three point field goals made (20) and three point field goals attempted (44) while averaging 29.0 ppg. He has not averaged 29.0 ppg since the 2022-23 season, so it will be interesting to see if he can score at that level for a full season as a soon to be 38 year old. Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.5 ppg--which would be his highest scoring average since 2022-23--and he said that he plans to have a higher free throw percentage than Curry this season. Butler's free throw percentage so far (.881) is a career-high but would be the second worst free throw percentage of Curry's career!
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic has led the Denver Nuggets to a championship and two Western Conference Finals appearances even though he has yet to play with a current All-Star; that streak of non-All-Star teammates may end this season if Jamal Murray (30.3 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (25.3 ppg) remain healthy and productive. Jokic just joined Oscar Robertson (1960-61) and Russell Westbrook (2020-21) on the list of players who had a triple double in each of the first three games of a season; last night, Jokic had 25 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists in what Peacock's Grant Hill called a "quiet" performance as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 127-114. "Quiet" for Jokic would be a career-best loud thunderstorm for most NBA players.
Denver went 0-4 versus Minnesota last season after losing 4-3 to the Timberwolves in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, but a major caveat about yesterday's game is that--as noted above--Anthony Edwards did not play due to a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for two weeks.
An overtime loss to the Warriors followed by wins against the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves sans Edwards is a small sample size, but the Nuggets should be encouraged not only by the health/productivity of Murray and Gordon but also by the solid contributions made by newly acquired players Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown. Throughout Jokic's career, the Nuggets have tended to get destroyed when he is out of the game, so if the rebuilt bench can even just tread water while Jokic rests then Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be fresher and deadlier than ever.
L.A. Lakers: The Lakers started the season without LeBron James, who will miss at least a few more weeks due to sciatica, and now they will be without Luka Doncic for at least a week due to a finger injury and a lower leg contusion. Doncic scored 43 points and then 49 points in the Lakers' first two
games, setting a franchise record for most points by a player in the
first two games of a season--but the Lakers went 1-1 in those games. Doncic is the only Laker other than Kobe Bryant to have at least 45 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least five assists, and at least five three point field goals made in the same regular season game.
The Lakers are now 1-1 without Doncic. They beat the Sacramento Kings 127-120 as Austin Reaves erupted for a career-high 51 points along with 11 rebounds and nine assists, and last night they lost 122-108 to Portland with Reaves scoring a game-high 41 points and committing a game-high eight turnovers.
Other than the health of their top two players, the key question for the Lakers is if they can consistently play good defense. They rank 14th in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. It is far from certain that having James and Doncic for all four games would have helped in either of those categories, as James is no longer a consistently good defensive player and Doncic is consistently a subpar defensive player.
The Lakers cannot go very far just based on offense alone; in their 128-110 victory over Minnesota, the Lakers shot .592 (45-76) from the field, powered by Doncic shooting 14-23 (.609). That kind of shooting is great, but unsustainable.
Deandre Ayton is averaging 15.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting .600 from the field, and the Lakers will need for him to continue to be productive.
The funny thing about any team featuring LeBron James is that James' media buddies will always promote the narrative that James does not have enough help. If James played with prime Kobe Bryant, prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, prime Magic Johnson, prime Elgin Baylor, and prime Jerry West, there is no doubt that Chris Haynes would report, "Sources tell me that Bryant shoots too much, Kareem only shoots skyhooks and his presence in the paint prevents LeBron from driving to the hoop, Magic's ball dominance prevents LeBron from doing what he does best, the Lakers would be better if Baylor stood in the corner to shoot three pointers, and West hurts the team because he can only dribble with his right hand." Dave McMenamin would add, "Anonymous players told me that Kareem is a 'vampire' who sucks the life out of the locker room, no one wants to play with Kobe, Magic smiles too much, Baylor is a ball hog, and West should let LeBron be the primary ballhandler." Brian Windhorst would conclude, "Ever since I followed LeBron around when he was in high school, LeBron has been a pass-first player who is a great leader. On this Lakers team, he is not able to pass or lead because Magic and West have taken those roles, and sources tell me that LeBron is not happy about this."
The current Lakers have two perimeter players beside James who can score 50 points or get 10 assists in a game, they have a center who rebounds, rolls to the hoop, and takes high percentage shots, and they have several solid role players, but after they once again fail to advance past the first round we will hear about how it is everyone's fault except LeBron's. The LeBron James era in L.A. has featured one "bubble" championship, one other Western Conference Finals appearance, three first round losses, and two seasons of missing the playoffs. James had an MVP-caliber/first ballot Hall of Fame player (Anthony Davis or Luka Doncic) in his prime next to him for all but one of those seasons. For the record, Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to back to back titles in 2009 and 2010 without a single teammate who made the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs and Thunder are the NBA's only 4-0 teams. Victor Wembanyama has posted MVP-level numbers: 31.0 ppg (seventh in the league), 13.8 rpg (fourth), 4.8 bpg (first), and .603 field goal percentage. The most encouraging number may be the number that decreased the most: he is attempting 2.8 three point field goals per game after attempting 8.8 three point field goals per game last season. Wembanyama looks bigger, stronger, and much more focused on attacking the paint. Accurate three point shooting is an important weapon for players and for teams, but championships are won on defense and in the paint, and Wembanyama is making strong contributions in those important areas.
The Spurs are unlikely to be a championship contender this season, but Wembanyama is showing signs of being the kind of player who can be the best player on a legit contender. He is receiving solid support from the team's other young players, including Stephon Castle (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg), Devin Vassell (16.8 ppg), rookie Dylan Harper (14.8 ppg, 4.8 apg), and Keldon Johnson (12.0 ppg on .643 field goal shooting).
The Spurs rank first in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage. They could win at least 50 games if they can maintain those rankings for the entire season.
Chauncey Billups, Damon Jones, and Terry Rozier Arrested as Part of a Wide-Ranging, Two-Pronged Federal Illegal Gambling Investigation
Three people with NBA connections--Hall of Fame player/Portland coach Chauncey Billups, former player Damon Jones, and current player Terry Rozier--have been arrested by the FBI in connection with a widespread, years-long, two-pronged probe into illegal gambling that allegedly involved multiple Mafia families, including Bonanno, Gambino, Genovese, and Lucchese. The NBA placed Billups and Rozier on leave. Tiago Splitter will be Portland's coach until further notice. Billups, Jones, Rozier, and the other people who have been arrested and charged are innocent until proven guilty, but it is important to understand what is being alleged and the wider implications if the allegations are true.
The second prong of the allegations is that the Mafia paid Jones and Rozier to provide insider information for use on wagering. The second prong is connected with the Jontay Porter matter. The NBA banned Jontay Porter for life in 2024 after he pleaded guilty to prematurely leaving two NBA games so that "under" prop bets would win. Porter is the first NBA player banned for violating gambling rules since Jack Molinas, who the NBA banned for his role in the infamous point shaving scandal that almost destroyed college basketball. Molinas was selected to play in the 1954 NBA All-Star Game, but was replaced by Andy Phillip and Molinas never played again in the NBA.
...the advent of widespread, legalized betting on NBA games opens up the
potential for a large number of problems; as the ESPN writer noted,
citing some research done on this issue, the more money that is added to
this situation the greater the likelihood for wrongdoing and scandal.
Just look at the recent Anthony Davis melodrama; is he going to play, is
he not going to play, is he going to play hard, is the team going to
play him in the fourth quarter--there are numerous ways for one or more
unscrupulous parties to manipulate the point spreads for New Orleans'
Pelicans' games. Then you have the issue of rest (or "load management,"
the new catchphrase for sitting out otherwise healthy players), not to
mention the issue of tanking. What if someone is able to get the inside
scoop about which stars are going to rest for which games, or which
teams decided to tank 10 games before the general public could tell that
those teams are tanking? The NBA's recent embrace of widespread
legalized gambling is fraught with peril.
Gambling should be made difficult for
the average man. It should be something he budgets to do once or twice a
year. Vegas was best when it was hardest to reach.
You
see, it isn't the two or three percent, the house edge, that beats you.
Otherwise, people would only lose two or three percent, and so what?
It's the psychology. A guy goes to a casino. He wins $500, he's
ecstatic. He goes home, buys his wife a present, springs for a night
out. Fine. Now he goes back. This time he loses $500. O.K., altogether
he's even. But does he quit $500 down the way he did $500 up? No. He
takes another $500 out of the bank. And now he's pressing, so he blows
that and borrows $500. Now he's out $1,500, and this is a guy who only
makes 20 to 25 grand a year. He goes home, gets into his wife's checking
account.
This is what happens when gambling is too accessible.
Everybody gets hurt but the casino. The guy can't buy the new summer
suit or the new shoes for his wife. He lets the tune-up go. The stores
are hurt, the restaurant, the gas station. This is the kind of stuff
you'll start to see soon at Atlantic City.
And if they legalized
sports betting, the little guy would be just as dead. We'd find a way
to beat you. Right now, if we—me, anybody—tried to bet more than $50,000
on any game, we'd have a hard time. And when you only got $50 riding,
you can't pay enough to fix a game. Put a pencil to it. But with
legalized gambling, there'd be so much money bet you could get down a
million or more on one game. So now it's worth it to pay for a fix,
isn't it? And that's easy. You don't need the quarterback. Just gimme
the center. Gimme the referee. All I'd need is one offside at the right
time. You don't even need to get a guy to throw it for you. Suppose we
just pay a big star $50,000 to stay home with the flu? Nobody ever
thought of that before, did they?
I don't buy the argument that behavior and morality cannot be legislated and that people simply have to be responsible for their decisions; gambling has been proven to be addictive, so making an addictive activity easily accessible to the majority of the population will inevitably lead not only to scandals but also to a public health crisis, even if the ramifications of that public health crisis are not immediately apparent. A lot of people are losing a lot of money that they cannot afford to lose and that they would not be losing if gambling were not so widely accessible, and this is going to destroy families. Ultimately, we will all pay for this looming public health crisis, both financially and emotionally as the damage ripples throughout society.
I also don't buy the argument that widespread legalized gambling makes gambling easier to monitor and regulate; in contrast, and as Snyder noted, widespread legalized gambling incentivizes cheating while also making cheating harder to detect. In addition to a public health crisis compounded by honest gamblers losing money because of point shaving and other shenanigans, we have already seen and heard about threats made against athletes by gamblers who lost money because of how well (or how poorly) athletes performed. Will it take someone injuring or killing an athlete over a wager for society to understand the dangers?
I am not suggesting that all wagering should be banned, but I think that wagering should be much more restricted than it is, and I think that sports leagues and their media partners should not be in the business of promoting wagering. Of course, the reforms that I am proposing are unlikely to happen because the leagues and their media partners are making a lot of money off of this misery and they will not voluntarily give up that money.
Victor Wembanyama Dominates as Spurs Rout Mavericks in Cooper Flagg's First Regular Season Game
With all due respect to the other players on the Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs, we know the two reasons why these non-playoff teams from the 2024-25 season faced each other in ESPN's first telecast of the 2025-26 season: 2024 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama and 2025 number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg. Wembanyama led both teams in scoring (40 points), rebounding (15), and blocked shots (three) as his Spurs routed the Mavericks, 125-92, and he put himself in very distinguished company in two different ways. He set the franchise record for most points scored in a season opener--and that franchise history includes Hall of Famers George Gervin, David Robinson, and Tim Duncan; also, since the NBA began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season, four players have had a game with at least 40 points, at least 15 rebounds, and no turnovers: Moses Malone (twice), Shaquille O'Neal (three times), Anthony Davis (three times), and Victor Wembanyama.
The most impressive and striking thing about how Wembanyama played is that he is noticeably bigger and stronger than he was last season, enabling him to attack the paint and eschew the long jumpers that he shot too frequently during his first two seasons. Being able to make outside shots and handle the ball on the perimeter are nice bonus features for the 7-4 Wembanyama, but the foundation of his greatness must be dominating the paint at both ends of the court--that will be his pathway to winning individual awards while lifting his team from the Draft Lottery to the playoffs.
Stephon Castle, the 2025 Rookie of the Year, had a strong game (22
points, seven rebounds, game-high six assists), and could form a
powerful duo with Wembanyama--and that could be a strong trio after
former All-Star De'Aaron Fox returns from injury. Spurs' rookie Dylan
Harper had a solid debut with 15 points on 7-14 field goal shooting.
The Spurs have enough talent, versatility, and experience to end their six year playoff drought, and this game was a good step in that direction.
Flagg struggled to score, finishing with 10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. As a versatile forward cast into an unfamiliar role as the starting point guard, he had no assists and three turnovers. The one positive is that he grabbed 10 rebounds. Charles Barkley--part of the award-winning TNT pre-game and post-game crew transferred to ESPN--said at halftime that the Mavericks are doing Flagg a disservice by playing him at point guard. Kenny Smith agreed, and noted that at point guard Flagg is being asked to pass to players who are not as good at scoring as he is. Barkley and Smith are correct that there is a big difference between being a skilled passer--which Flagg is--and playing the point guard position. I am not a fan of trying to convert versatile forwards into guards in their rookie seasons; it did not work well with Kevin Durant, and it is unlikely to work well with anyone else. Flagg must first learn how to play his natural forward position in the NBA before he learns how to play a new position.
There is also a big difference between playing well in Summer League or preseason and playing well in the regular season. Despite his first game struggles, Flagg will be fine, but anyone who thinks that even the best college team would have a chance against the worst NBA team should note the huge gap between the college game--where Flagg was just the consensus Player of the Year--and the NBA game; the NBA game features much better players (and coaches) than the college game.
Anthony Davis led the Mavericks in scoring (22 points) and rebounding (13), but he shot just 7-22 from the field and was outplayed by Wembanyama both overall and when they were matched up. P.J. Washington (17 points on 7-11 field goal shooting) was the only other Dallas player who scored more than 10 points. The Mavericks obviously missed the injured Kyrie Irving--who will not play until at least January 2026--and Daniel Gafford, who has a sprained ankle but is expected to return to action soon; however, even with those two players out, the Mavericks should not have lost by 33 points at home. Starting center Dereck Lively II was a non-factor with four points, two rebounds, and five fouls in just 10 minutes of action. Future Hall of Famer Klay Thompson was invisible (10 points on 4-13 field goal shooting), and the talented but inconsistent D'Angelo Russell (six points on 1-6 field goal shooting) reminded everyone why Dallas is his fourth team in the past four seasons.
Gafford's return, switching Flagg to his natural position, and playing with more energy collectively should help the Mavericks avoid more blowout losses.
OG Anunboy led the Knicks with 24 points and a game-high 14 rebounds. Jalen Brunson scored 23 points despite shooting just 5-18 from the field, including 1-9 from three point range. Karl-Anthony Towns overcame early foul trouble to finish with 19 points and 11 rebounds. Mikal Bridges had a solid all-around game (16 points, game-high tying six assists, five rebounds), and Miles McBride made a strong contribution off of the bench (15 points in 26 minutes, game-high +17 plus/minus number).
Donovan Mitchell poured in a game-high 31 points, but he also had a game-worst -14 plus/minus number; this was a game of runs, and he was on the court not only for Cleveland's big third quarter run but also for most of the Knicks' many runs. Evan Mobley added 22 points and a team-high eight rebounds. Sam Merrill chipped in 19 points, but also fouled out in just 28 minutes. Lonzo Ball had a game-high tying six assists in his Cleveland debut, but he scored just three points on 1-7 field goal shooting in 23 minutes off of the bench.
Both teams were without the services of key injured players: Cleveland
did not have two-time All-Star Darius Garland, versatile wing De'Andre
Hunter and three point shooter Max Strus, while the Knicks missed strong
rebounder/defensive anchor Mitchell Robinson and versatile Josh Hart,
who ranked second on the team in rebounding (9.6 rpg) and assists (5.9
apg) last season. The concerning thing for the Cavaliers is that their absent players are unlikely to help much in terms of rebounding and free throw attempts, while the Knicks who did not play are both excellent rebounders.
It is often said that the NBA is a fourth quarter league, but I often point out that the NBA is frequently a first quarter league, meaning that the matchups and tendencies that emerge in the opening stanza foreshadow what will happen the rest of the way. The Knicks led by as many as 12 points in the first quarter, and they were up 33-23 after the first 12 minutes. They established the rebounding dominance (15-7) and free throw attempts lead (8-0) that proved to be the game's two main themes; the Knicks attacked the paint offensively, and protected the paint well defensively, outshooting the Cavaliers from the field .524 (11-21) to .391 (9-23).
The Knicks extended their lead to 15 in the second quarter before the Cavaliers went on a 16-2 run to pull within 44-43 at the 4:44 mark. Just when it may have seemed like the Cavaliers were back in the game, the Knicks hit them with a 21-7 burst to enjoy a 65-50 halftime lead.
Before the third quarter began, ESPN's Tim Legler said that the Cavaliers need for Mitchell to be much more aggressive. Mitchell had just eight points on 3-7 field goal shooting in the first half. As I noted in my recap of Oklahoma City's 125-124 double overtime win versus Houston, a team's leading scorer has an obligation to take a high volume of shots and score a lot of points, because otherwise he is throwing off his team's rhythm. It may sound nice to say things like "Everyone is going to eat," but the reality is that when the star player "eats" that forces double teams and traps that make it easier for his less talented teammates to "eat." This is one of the most misunderstood factors behind some of LeBron James' biggest postseason failures, most notably in the 2010 playoffs and the 2011 NBA Finals; when James became inexplicably (and inexcusably) passive after being a big-time scorer throughout those seasons, he left his teams high and dry without a realistic chance to win.
Coach Kenny Atkinson told ESPN's Lisa Salters that he was unhappy with his team's lack of aggressiveness, poor shot selection, and lack of focus, including fouling three point shooters four times.
Mitchell received the message loud and clear, erupting for 21 third quarter points on 9-14 field goal shooting as the Cavaliers outscored the Knicks 37-22 to knot the score at 87-87 entering the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, the Cavaliers outrebounded the Knicks 12-8 and attempted seven free throws while conceding just four free throw attempts.
The third quarter proved to be an aberration, and in the fourth quarter the regularly scheduled programming resumed: the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 32-24 while winning the rebounding war 13-4 and attempting 13 free throws while allowing just six free throw attempts. Mitchell had two points on 0-4 field goal shooting in 10 minutes.
A road loss to one of the Eastern Conference Finalists from 2025 does not spell the end of Cleveland's championship dreams and goals, but it is clear that the Cavaliers not only need to get healthy but they need to cultivate a more aggressive mindset; they can glide by most teams in the regular season based on talent, but they cannot glide by elite teams relying on talent alone.
Last season, the Knicks went 0-4 versus the Cavaliers, and 2-9 combined versus the Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and Indiana Pacers. This is just one game, but it was a successful start for the Mike Brown era in New York. No sensible person can deny that Tom Thibodeau did an outstanding job coaching the Knicks before being fired after last season's Eastern Conference Finals loss to the Pacers, but the Knicks' brass felt that the Knicks could and should have at least reached the NBA Finals. It remains to be seen if Brown will lead the Knicks to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999.
Oklahoma City Thunder Outlast Houston Rockets 125-124 in Opening Night Double Overtime Thriller
Hearing John Tesh's "Roundball Rock" as the NBA returned to NBC for the first time since 2002 brought back a flood of nostalgic memories, foremost among them the Chicago Bulls' twin three-peats (1991-93, 1996-98) culminating in the legendary "Last Dance" 1998 championship season. There has been a lot of hype about the revival of the NBA on NBC and, at least on Opening Night, the game lived up to the hype as the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Houston Rockets 125-124 in a double overtime battle featuring plenty of drama and plot twists. If this was a Western Conference Finals preview--and it is way too soon to say that it was--then we are in for a treat next May.
Before the game began, the Thunder received their championship rings and
raised the first championship banner in Oklahoma City history. The
Thunder's rings feature a unique ring within a ring design; championship
rings have become so big and gaudy that they are not practical to wear,
but each of the Thunder's championship rings contain a smaller ring
inside that is personalized for each player and small enough to be worn
comfortably.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning Finals MVP, regular season MVP, and scoring champion, overcame a slow start to lead the Thunder with 35 points while also grabbing five rebounds, and tying three teammates with a team-high five assists. Chet Holmgren added 28 points and seven rebounds. The
Thunder were without the services of 2025 All-NBA Third Team selection
Jaylen Williams, who is recovering from offseason surgery on his right
(shooting) wrist, but they received an unexpected boost off of the bench as Ajay Mitchell poured in 16 points in just 15 minutes. Cason Wallace contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Isaiah Hartenstein only scored six points, but he had a team-high nine rebounds and five assists. Fan favorite Lu Dort was the other Thunder player with five assists, and he played 45 minutes, second most for the Thunder behind Gilgeous-Alexander's 47.
Alperun Sengun scored a game-high 39 points, snared 11 rebounds, and dished for a game-high seven assists. He often overpowered Alex Caruso in the post, and Caruso--a key defensive player for the Thunder--finished with a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 23 points and nine rebounds in his Houston debut, and he was booed lustily by an Oklahoma City crowd that has not forgiven him for fleeing a championship contending team to join the Golden State Warriors in 2016. Amen Thompson had 18 points, five assists, and four turnovers before leaving the game with a leg injury in the first overtime. He had a team-worst -11 plus/minus number as the starting point guard in place of the injured Fred VanVleet. Thompson is bigger, faster, and more athletic than VanVleet but also not as savvy in terms of running a team and controlling pace.
The Rockets trotted out the tallest starting lineup since the NBA first tracked
starting lineups in the 1970-71 season: Amen Thompson (6-7), Kevin
Durant (6-11), Jabari Smith, Jr. (6-11), Alperen Sengun (6-11), and
Steven Adams (6-11). Adams, a former Thunder player who the fans cheered when the
starting lineups were announced, had a game-high 13 rebounds as the
Rockets bludgeoned the Thunder 51-39 on the glass. The modern NBA is supposedly all about playing small, pace and space, and jacking up three pointers, but the Rockets nearly beat last year's champions with a big team despite shooting just 11-39 (.282) from three point range. Losing the turnover battle 21-11 nullified Houston's rebounding advantage, and if the Rockets can clean that up then their defense and rebounding will make them very difficult to beat and very uncomfortable to play against. The Thunder uncharacteristically had five turnovers in the first quarter after leading the league in fewest turnovers per game (11.7) and most turnovers forced per game (17.0) last season, but in the final 46 minutes the Thunder only had six turnovers.
In four full quarters and two overtimes, neither team outscored the other by more than four points in a quarter or an overtime. The Rockets enjoyed a 57-51 halftime lead, using a balanced attack featuring three double figure scorers. Gilgeous-Alexander had just five first half points on 2-5 field goal shooting. NBC's Jamal Crawford made an interesting point near the end of the first
half, stating that the Thunder are built for Gilgeous-Alexander to be
the leading scorer and look out of sorts when he is not. I have often
made a similar point about elite scorers in general, noting that they
have a responsibility to score a lot; their high volume shooting is not
selfish, but is necessary for their teams to be successful.
This is not fun for me. I don't like
being up here for the Hall of Fame because at that time your basketball
career is completely over. I was hoping this day would be 20 more years,
or actually go in when I'm dead and gone. Because now, all along...you
always [could] put shorts on and go out and play. Now, when you get into
the Hall of Fame, what else is there to do? This is kind of a love-hate
thing for me--great accomplishment, great respect that everybody's
paying, but for me, I always want to be able to have you thinking that I
can always go back and play the game of basketball, put my shorts on.
As long as you have that thought, you never know what can happen...Am I?
No. But I'd like for you to think that way. Hall of Fame, to me, is
like, 'OK, it's over and done with, it's pretty much done, you can't
ever put a uniform back on.' It's totally the end of your basketball
career. But it's a great accomplishment. I don't walk away from it. But I
never envisioned myself really wanting to be up here so quickly. I
wanted it to be when I'm 70 years old, 80 years old. I'm 45 and I still
think I can play. You guys don't know if I can or can't but at least
I've got you thinking that way.
Jordan told NBC's Mike Tirico that he agreed to be interviewed--NBC plans to show the interview in installments over the next several weeks in an obvious attempt to boost ratings--because he feels an obligation to give back to the game by providing his observations and wisdom about basketball and competition. Jordan made it very clear that he would much rather be playing than talking about playing, and he said that he misses the competition. More than 20 years after he retired, being a basketball player is still a core part of Jordan's identity. This should not surprise anyone who followed Jordan's career, or anyone who gets an adrenaline boost not just from competing but from winning; if you are that kind of person, it is difficult to find anything to replace that feeling. That is what is so fascinating about the direction that Kobe Bryant seemed to be taking as a retired player, because he appeared to find other ways to express himself beyond playing; it is a shame that Bryant's life (and the lives of all of the passengers in that doomed helicopter, including his daughter Gigi) was cut short before he could explore all of those other aspects of life.
Next week's installment of the Jordan interview will focus on his thoughts about load management and about why it was so important to him to play all 82 regular season games. I don't expect to be surprised by Jordan's thoughts on this topic, but I hope that after Jordan explains why playing every game is important that today's players take his approach to heart.
The Rockets built a 63-51 lead on Thompson's layup at the 10:13 mark of the third quarter, but by the end of that quarter the Thunder had trimmed the margin to four (79-75), setting up a competitive fourth quarter during which neither team led by more than six points. Durant split a pair of free throws with 9.5 seconds remaining in regulation to put the Rockets up 104-102, leaving the door open for the Thunder to tie or even win. Gilgeous-Alexander, the master of the midrange game that is despised by many "stat gurus" but essential for winning in the playoffs, drilled a pullup jumper to tie the score with 2.6 seconds left. The Rockets called timeout before inbounding the ball to Sengun, who missed a jumper as time expired.
The Thunder jumped out to a 110-104 lead in the first 1:24 of the first overtime, but the Rockets reeled them in and tied the score on Sengun's putback dunk with 8.8 seconds remaining. After Gilgeous-Alexander missed a jumper with 2.2 seconds left, Durant grabbed the rebound and clearly signaled for a timeout. The only problem was that Houston did not have any more timeouts. Had the officials recognized Durant's request with time left on the clock then the Rockets would have been assessed a technical foul and the Thunder would have had a chance to take the lead at the free throw line. However, time just ran out, after which Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault approached the officials and angrily asked why they did not call a technical foul. The NBC crew never got a definitive explanation regarding what happened; play by play announcer Mike Tirico merely noted that the officials had never acknowledged Durant's signal, without questioning how it is possible that an official standing right next to Durant could not have noticed Durant's signal (and, presumably, Durant also verbally requesting a timeout).
The second overtime was as closely contested as the rest of the game, with neither team leading by more than three points. At the 1:15 mark, Durant drove to the hoop, drew Hartenstein's sixth foul, and hit a shot while he was falling down. Durant made the free throw to put Houston up, 122-120. Gilgeous-Alexander answered with a smooth stepback jumper, and then he split a pair of free throws after Houston turned over the ball. Durant missed a three pointer, but the Rockets retained possession and Durant passed to a cutting Sengun for a layup that put the Rockets up 124-123 with just 11 seconds remaining. Durant guarded Gilgeous-Alexander on the final possession, and played good defense before fouling him with just 2.3 seconds left. Gilgeous-Alexander hit both free throws to provide the final margin.
A Thunder win with Durant fouling out on the play that gave the Thunder the lead is undoubtedly a perfect ending for Oklahoma City fans. Both teams competed hard, and both teams made many nice plays at both ends of the court. My only quibble would be that 67 combined missed three pointers is not efficient basketball no matter what the "stat gurus" say, but teams regularly jacking up 30, 40, 50 or more three pointers appears to be a permanent feature of the sport now. We have all heard that "Three is more than two," but it is worth pointing out that "Two is more than zero," and that 67 possessions in this game ended with zero points on shots from 23 feet, nine inches and beyond. For the modern NBA, though, this was a very high level game, and it was enjoyable to watch.
Anyone who understands the NBA knows that it is foolish to read too much into one game, particularly the first game of a long regular season; after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar hit a game-winning skyhook in rookie Magic Johnson's first NBA game, Johnson celebrated and Abdul-Jabbar casually informed him that there were 81 more games to go (and Johnson told him that if he hits a shot like that 81 more times then he will celebrate 81 more times, but that is a different story). Nevertheless, even though it is way too soon to draw definitive conclusions, we can make a few observations about both teams. The Thunder were sluggish offensively at first, primarily due to Gilgeous-Alexander starting slowly and Williams not being in the lineup, but after they fell behind by double digits they woke up and found a way to win despite not playing their best and not having their second best player. After Williams returns, the Thunder will be much better at both ends of the court. The Rockets' size and physicality challenged the Thunder, and will challenge most teams in the league. Sengun looked as good as he has ever looked even though the Rockets lack a true point guard and are still figuring out how to fully integrate Durant into the offense (he had just nine points after halftime). It will be very interesting to assess both of these teams after a larger sample size of games.
Tamir Goodman's Basketball Journey from Baltimore to Towson University to Israel
I generally focus on pro basketball here, but this story deserves the widest possible audience, and is relevant not just to basketball but to life, because life is about having a meaningful journey during which you grow and help others, not just about reaching a destination--and life is about overcoming obstacles without compromising your core values.
If you are younger than 40, you may not remember Tamir Goodman, who was dubbed the "Jewish Jordan" after he emerged as one of the top high school basketball prospects in the country. Goodman did not seek out fame or publicity, but when he became famous he used his platform and visibility to send a powerful message about faith and persistence. Goodman not only wrestled with the high expectations others placed on him, but he also dealt with numerous injuries plus severe dyslexia.
Goodman's basketball accomplishments may be the least interesting part of his life story, but it is worth noting that he played well against high level competition. Goodman was co-MVP of the 2000 Capital Classic game featuring some of the nation's top high school recruits. Other MVPs of the Capital Classic include LeBron James (2003) and Dwight Howard (2004). Maryland, which later won the 2002 NCAA title, offered Goodman a full scholarship. Goodman ended up not playing at Maryland because the school and the ACC were unwilling or unable to accommodate his observance of the Jewish Sabbath, which meant that Goodman could not play in any games from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday. Instead, Goodman went to Towson, a Division I school, and he averaged 6.0 ppg and 4.0 apg as a freshman while starting 23 of the 27 games that he played. Coach Mike Jaskulski accommodated Goodman's religious observance, but after a 12-17 season Towson fired Jaskulski. The next coach, Michael Hunt, clashed with Goodman, and Goodman filed an assault complaint after a locker room confrontation during which Hunt kicked a chair such that it hit Goodman's leg. Goodman subsequently dropped the complaint, and he never played for Towson again.
Goodman played in various Israeli professional basketball leagues for several seasons before knee injuries forced him to retire in 2009 when he was just 27 years old. Now, he lives in Israel with his wife Judy and their five children. Goodman is an entrepreneur, coach, educator, and motivational speaker who says, "Judaism actually helped me with basketball, because Judaism is a
blueprint. It's a way of life. It's, like, how to sleep, how
to eat, how to take care of your body, how to take care of your mind,
winning each day, giving back, playing for a higher purpose. I think
Judaism actually helped me be a better basketball player."
Here is Goodman's recent appearance on the Living Lchaim channel:
The whole podcast is worth a listen, but the most striking moment is the story of someone asking Goodman's high school coach Harold Katz (not the Harold Katz who owned the Philadelphia 76ers) if he thought the team would have a good season. Coach Katz replied that he would not know the answer for 30 years, until he saw what kinds of men, husbands, and fathers his players became. Podcast host Meredith Shiner concluded that Goodman and Katz are too modest to say it, but she is comfortable saying that the team had a successful season.
Becoming the best person you can be and then using your gifts to help other people is the ultimate win.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic 68-14 regular season during which they broke the NBA's record for point differential previously held by the legendary 1972 L.A. Lakers. The Thunder also became the first team to lead the league in fewest turnovers committed and most turnovers forced. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won his first scoring title (career-high 32.7 ppg), first regular season MVP, first championship, first Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and first Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP while earning his third straight All-NBA First Team selection. Gilgeous-Alexander is the first player to win the scoring title,
regular season MVP, and NBA Finals MVP in the same season since Shaquille O'Neal (2000), and he is just the fourth player in NBA history to win the scoring title,
regular season MVP, and the championship in the same season, joining
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971), Michael Jordan (1991-92, 1996, 1998), and Shaquille O'Neal (2000); Julius Erving accomplished that triple crown feat twice in the ABA (1974, 1976).
The Thunder enter the 2025-26 season with their entire rotation intact from last season. They have no obvious weaknesses, and it would appear that the only things potentially standing in the way of a Thunder repeat are injuries or complacency.
Last season, the Denver Nuggets tied for the third-fifth best record in the Western Conference, and were slotted into the fourth seed based on tiebreakers. They defeated the L.A. Clippers in seven games in the first round before falling to the powerful Thunder in seven games in the second round. Coach David Adelman, who replaced the fired Michael Malone late in the season, did an excellent job both tactically and in terms of connecting with his players. After losing to the Thunder, the Nuggets traded oft-injured Michael Porter Jr. to the Brooklyn Nets for Cam Johnson, and they also bolstered their depth by acquiring Bruce Brown (who was a member of their 2023 championship team), Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas.
Under the coaching of Ime Udoka, the Houston Rockets soared from
22-60 in 2022-23 to 41-41 in Udoka's first season and 52-30 last year.
The Rockets led the NBA in rebounding while ranking sixth in both points
allowed and defensive field goal percentage; their only weakness was a
lack of shooting, which caused the offense to break down, particularly in half court sets. Enter Kevin Durant, who the Rockets acquired from Phoenix in the offseason as part of a seven team deal.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on
their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) Oklahoma City Thunder: It is easy and commonplace to overreact after a team wins a championship, and to buy the notion that more championships are sure to follow, even though the NBA has not had a repeat champion since Golden State's Kevin Durant-led super team won in 2017 and 2018. However, there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Thunder have a great chance to not only repeat but to win multiple titles in the next few years: (1) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a young superstar who plays hard at both ends of the court and he is just entering his prime; (2) the Thunder are elite at both ends of the court; (3) the Thunder are well positioned under the current salary cap rules to keep their core group intact.
Injuries can derail any contender. The Thunder enjoyed excellent health last season, but if that changes then they could fall back. Complacency is another problem that championship teams must battle. The Thunder seem to be focused and hungry, but we won't know for sure until they navigate an entire season as the reigning champion.
Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged at least 30 ppg for three straight seasons, joining a small group of players that includes Giannis Antetokounmpo (2023-25), James Harden (2018-20), Michael Jordan (1987-93), Bob McAdoo (1974-76), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1971-73), Oscar Robertson (1964-67), and Wilt Chamberlain (1960-66). Gilgeous-Alexander has also posted back to back 25-5-5 seasons, which is one benchmark of all-around greatness.
In general, tanking does not work, and I would push back a bit against anyone who suggests that the Thunder tanked to the top. It is true that the Thunder tanked for two seasons, but before tanking they had already acquired Gilgeous-Alexander in a trade, which means they had their cornerstone player; that approach should be distinguished from the tanking practiced by the Philadelphia 76ers and other teams that stripped down their rosters while hoping to win the NBA Draft Lottery and obtain a franchise player with the number one overall pick. I am not a fan of the tanking that the Thunder did, but there is no denying that it worked, even though it should be emphasized that any team that tanks without already having a player like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is likely to end up in the same sorry state inhabited by the 76ers and other tanking teams.
Jalen Williams--whose draft rights were acquired in the same trade that brought Gilgeous-Alexander to Oklahoma City--set career highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), assists (5.1 apg), steals (1.6 spg), and blocked shots (.7 bpg) while earning his first All-Star selection, first All-NBA selection (Third Team), and first All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team). He posted similar numbers (21.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.8 apg, 1.4 spg, .4 bpg) during the Thunder's playoff run, capped off by a 40 point outburst in the Thunder's 120-109 NBA Finals game five win versus the Indiana Pacers. It should be emphasized that the Thunder acquired their two best players via trade, not by tanking.
Two offseason acquisitions paid huge dividends for the Thunder: Isaiah
Hartenstein (team-high 10.7 rpg) ensured that the Thunder would no
longer be pushed around in the paint, and Alex Caruso provided veteran
leadership plus ball-hawking defense.
2) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets pushed the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder to seven games in the second round, and then they improved their roster by acquiring Cam Johnson, Bruce Bowen, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Jonas Valanciunas while only losing Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook from their core rotation. The Nuggets' added depth should not only help in terms of regular season seeding but also in terms of not losing ground on the scoreboard during the playoffs when Nikola Jokic is on the bench.
Jokic is a generational player who has performed at an MVP-caliber level for the past five seasons, with no end in sight. He won the regular season MVP in 2021, 2022, and 2024, and he finished second in MVP voting in 2023 and 2025. Last season, Jokic averaged a triple double with a career-high 29.6 ppg (third in the league), 12.7 rpg (third in the league), and a career-high 10.2 apg (second in the league). The only other players who have averaged a triple double for a season are Oscar Robertson (1961-62; he also averaged an aggregate triple double for his first five NBA seasons), and Russell Westbrook (2017-19, 21; he averaged an aggregate triple double for the five seasons spanning 2017-21).
Denver's success will depend on Jokic's continued greatness plus the health/availability of Jamal Murray (career-high 21.4 ppg in 67 games last season) and Aaron Gordon (14.7 ppg in 51 games last season), and the effective integration of the newcomers into Denver's offensive and defensive systems--but an injury-depleted Denver team without much bench strength pushed the Thunder to seven games in the playoffs, so a healthy and deeper Denver team should be a legitimate championship contender.
3) Houston Rockets: The Rockets made one of the offseason's biggest moves, acquiring Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns as part of a seven team deal in which the Rockets gave up Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and multiple draft picks (including the 10th overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft). Durant is 37 years old and six years removed from the right Achilles tendon rupture that knocked him out of the 2019 NBA Finals and cost him the entire 2019-20 season, but he is still a very productive player. Last season, he averaged 26.6 ppg (just a shade under his 27.2 ppg career average) with shooting splits of .527/.430/.839--but he missed 20 games, and his Phoenix Suns did not qualify for the playoffs. Durant's efficient offensive game is just what the offensively challenged Rockets need after finishing 21st in field goal percentage and 21st in three point field goal percentage.
The Rockets' best player last season was versatile young center Alperen Sengun, who earned his first All-Star selection by averaging 19.1 ppg, a career-high 10.3 rpg (ninth in the league), and 4.9 apg. Amen Thompson averaged 14.1 ppg, made the All-Defensive First Team, and finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Starting point guard Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL during a September 2025 workout, and will likely miss the entire 2025-26 season, putting the onus on Thompson and Reed Sheppard to pick up the slack in an already thin backcourt rotation. Thompson worked on his playmaking this summer in anticipation of making greater contributions in that area even before VanVleet got hurt, and now that work will be put to the test. Sheppard only averaged 4.5 ppg and 1.3 apg in 12.5 mpg last season as a rookie, but the Rockets will need more minutes and production from him unless/until they acquire another point guard.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards unleashed his inner Stephen Curry last season, setting career highs in three point field goals made (320, first in the league), three point field goals attempted (811, first in the league), and three point field goal percentage (.395). His evolution into a long range bomber is a missed blessing; there is some value in him being able to stretch the floor, but it would be preferable for the Timberwolves if someone else stretched the floor to enable Edwards to attack the hoop with impunity, because many players can learn to shoot but precious few can finish at the rim the way that Edwards can.
The Timberwolves lost in the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive season, and for the second consecutive season they fell in just five games. Reaching the Western Conference Finals is no longer enough for this team, and getting routed again is unacceptable, but the sad reality for the Timberwolves and their fans is that the Thunder are still a better team, the Nuggets and Rockets made clear offseason improvements, and the Timberwolves stood pat.
Running it back with a good team is commendable, particularly in an era during which teams often have little patience for development and growth, but the Timberwolves will need a lot of development and growth to surpass the Thunder, Nuggets, and Rockets--and they will have to work hard to stay ahead of several other Western Conference teams as well.
5) Golden State Warriors: The Warriors were 25-26 and going nowhere fast last season before they traded for Jimmy Butler, who became the fastest player in franchise history to amass at least 350 points, at least 100 rebounds, and at least 100 assists, doing so in 21 games. The Warriors finished 48-34, earned the seventh seed by beating the Memphis Grizzlies in the Play-In Tournament, and then upset the Houston Rockets in the first round before losing 4-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Stephen Curry sustained a series-ending hamstring injury in game one of the Minnesota series. His 24.5 ppg scoring average last season was his lowest full-season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. He has not made the All-NBA First Team since 2021. Curry will be 38 years old by the time the 2026 playoffs begin, and it is fair to wonder how healthy and how productive he can be at this advanced stage of his career; basketball aging is different for agile 6-3 players than it is for big, strong players who can use their height, length, and strength to compensate for diminishing athleticism and quickness.
Butler is an impact player who has a demonstrably limited shelf life; he lifts his teams in the short run, but is rarely happy in the long run. The Warriors have a short timeline with the aging Curry and Draymond Green, so perhaps these "golden guys" can make a deep playoff run, but none of them have reached the NBA Finals since 2023, and two years is a long time for players who are well into their 30s.
The extended Jonathan Kuminga saga highlights the internal instability that has characterized this team for many years; the Warriors finally signed Kuminga, but he is clearly as dissatisfied with the organization as Coach Steve Kerr is with him, so it would not be surprising if the Warriors deal him in a midseason trade. The Warriors' improbable but impressive 2022 championship is a bright spot that makes it easy to overlook the fact that since Kevin Durant left in 2019 the Warriors have missed the playoffs three times and lost in the second round twice.
Championship or bust may be this team's mindset, but second round and sayonara is likely the best case scenario.
6) L.A. Lakers: It will be interesting to see if the LeBron James public relations machine known as ESPN hypes up the Lakers as championship contenders, or if they give James the opportunity for a soft landing by lowering expectations. It is not clear what the Lakers expected when they plucked James from Cleveland in 2018, but it is reasonable to suggest that they expected more than one championship and it is certain that they did not expect to fail to advance past the first round five times in seven years.
After James engineered Anthony Davis' arrival in L.A. in 2019, James and the Lakers thought that they had built a super team that could both win now and be positioned for a promising long-term future with Davis as the centerpiece after James retired. In the wake of the Lakers trading Davis to Dallas for Luka Doncic, we can close the book on the James-Davis era in L.A.: they won the 2020 "bubble title," and after that they had one Western Conference Finals appearance, two first round losses, and one season during which they did not even qualify for the Play-In Tournament.
James claims that he had no idea that the Lakers planned to swap Davis for Doncic, but that is difficult to believe considering that James seems to have a heavy hand in every personnel (and coaching) move that the Lakers have made since he joined the team. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections before missing the cut in his first season in L.A., led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals and is a more dynamic offensive weapon than Davis ever was. The Lakers went 18-10 during the regular season with Doncic in the lineup as Doncic became the fastest player in Lakers history to amass at least 700 points, at least 200 rebounds, and at least 200 assists; he averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg as a Laker in the regular season, and he averaged 30.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 5.8 apg as the third seeded Lakers lost 4-1 to sixth seeded Minnesota in the first round.
The Mavericks traded Doncic because they were purportedly concerned about his conditioning, and it has been widely reported that during this past summer Doncic trained harder than he ever has to enter this season in the best shape of his life. James is still remarkably productive--averaging 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg last season as a 40 year old to earn his 21st All-Star selection and his 21st selection to the All-NBA Team (extending his all-time records in both categories)--but the Lakers are Doncic's team now. This is the first time in James' career that he is clearly not the best player on his own team, and it will be interesting to see how Doncic and James navigate these uncharted waters.
During the Lakers' cameo playoff appearance, the Timberwolves bludgeoned them in the paint, so the Lakers addressed that weakness by signing Deandre Ayton, who was Phoenix' starting center when the Suns reached the 2021 NBA Finals but is viewed as a low motor player despite posting career averages of 16.4 ppg and 10.5 rpg. If Ayton rebounds, defends, and serves as a pick and roll lob threat for Doncic then the Lakers could be quite good, but Ayton has not played in at least 70 games in a season since his 2018-19 rookie campaign, and he played in just 40 games for Portland last season; if Ayton is unavailable or indifferent then the Lakers do not have enough size or defensive presence to match up with the elite teams.
Coach J.J. Redick acts and talks like he has all of the answers, but Redick was often outcoached last season, and before the Lakers acquired Doncic they had a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. The Lakers improved at both ends of the court down the stretch, but Minnesota's Chris Finch coached circles around Redick in the first round. It is baffling that the Lakers recently extended Redick's contract--which had three years remaining--for an additional two years. James and Redick are friends who used to do a podcast together, so maybe securing a long-term payday for Redick is a gift from James who, presumably, will not be playing five years from now; there is no rational reason to extend Redick other than keeping James happy, and as a result of this decision the Lakers will be paying Redick long after James retires, even if Redick is not coaching the team by that time.
If Doncic and James stay healthy and Ayton stays focused, the Lakers could win 50 games again, but in the tough Western Conference that might not be good enough to claim the third seed again; the Lakers tied for third-fifth in the West with a 50-32 record but received the third seed on tiebreaks, so they could go 50-32 in 2025-26 and end up in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.
The Lakers may have a 10 game winning streak that puts ESPN's perpetual hype machine into overdrive, but when the going gets tough in the playoffs the Lakers will lose in the first round for the third straight year.
7) San Antonio Spurs: There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.
The Spurs face the same challenges that young teams often have to overcome: poor shot selection (the Spurs ranked 17th in field goal percentage), lack of physicality (they ranked 19th in rebounding), and lack of defensive focus (they ranked 23rd in points allowed and 24th in defensive field goal percentage). They are not going to fix all of those problems in one season, but with Wembanyama anchoring the paint defensively and Fox running the show offensively, the Spurs should surpass the 40 win mark for the first time since 2018-19, the last season that they qualified for the playoffs.
8) Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving will miss most if not all of the season after tearing his left ACL late last season, but the cupboard is not bare; the Mavericks have Anthony Davis, the big man duo of Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, and number one overall draft pick Cooper Flagg, who is expected to make an immediate contribution as a scorer, playmaker, and solid defensive player.
Davis had offseason surgery for a detached retina that he suffered last season, but he is not expected to miss any time this season as a result of the procedure. Davis averaged 24.7 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, and 2.2 bpg last season, but he played in just 51 games; he averaged 20.0 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, and 2.2 bpg in nine games with the Mavericks after being traded from the Lakers for Luka Doncic.
Daniel Gafford averaged 12.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.8 bpg while shooting .702 from the field, but he only played in 57 games. Lively matched Gafford's .702 field goal percentage while producing 8.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, and 1.6 bpg in 36 games.
All of that big production from the big men in a small number of games added up to a 39-43 record, and a 1-1 showing in the Play-In Tournament, which was not sufficient to qualify for the playoffs.
Klay Thompson will presumably shift from small forward back to his natural shooting guard position to make room in the starting lineup for Flagg. Thompson shot at least .400 from three point range in each of his first eight seasons, but he shot at least .400 from beyond the arc just once in the past four seasons after missing two full seasons due to injury. Last season, he scored 14.0 ppg--his lowest average since his rookie season--with shooting splits of .412/.391/.905.
D'Angelo Russell will run the point until Irving returns. Russell earned his lone All-Star selection in 2019--his fourth NBA season--but Dallas is his fourth team since 2023. In the 2024 playoffs, he scored 23 points in the Lakers' game two loss to Denver, and then scored zero points in the Lakers' game three loss; such wild fluctuations explain both why teams give up on him and why teams give him another chance.
With decent health and a productive Flagg, this team could be good; add Irving to the mix, and this team could be very good--but the sad reality for Mavericks fans is that Davis and Lively will both likely miss extended time due to injuries, Russell is unreliable at best, and it is rare for a rookie to be a significant contributor on a contending team. The only Dallas players who participated in at least 70 games last season are Spencer Dinwiddie--who signed with Charlotte in the offseason--and Thompson.
The teams that finish seventh
through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
In 2019, the L.A. Clippers traded Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a treasure trove of draft picks (one of which became All-Star Jalen Williams) for Paul George; this deal was one of Kawhi Leonard's many preconditions for joining the Clippers. It is a huge understatement to say that the Clippers' plan backfired; while Gilgeous-Alexander is the centerpiece of a potential Thunder dynasty (with Williams as a valuable second option), the Clippers have reached the Western Conference Finals just once in the Leonard era, they have lost in the first round in each of the past three seasons, and the NBA is now investigating possible salary cap circumvention connected with the Leonard signing. Instead of having a young superstar who has not even reached his prime yet, the Clippers have not just the oldest team in the NBA now but the oldest team in NBA history (average age: 33.2 years).
Leonard has played in at least 60 regular season games just once in his six seasons with the Clippers. The Clippers' two big free agent signings are Bradley Beal and Chris Paul. Beal fits right in with Leonard and the Clippers: he has played in at least 60 regular season games once since 2019. Paul has not participated in the playoffs since he averaged 12.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting while playing in seven of Phoenix' 11 postseason games in 2023, but if the Clippers make the playoffs he will have an opportunity to extend his all-time record of five blown 2-0 series leads. The Clippers will miss the reliable Norm Powell, who they shipped to Miami for John Collins as part of a three team deal.
The Memphis Grizzlies were in second place in the Western Conference before a second half of the season collapse that led to the late season firing of Coach Taylor Jenkins and then (after a first round playoff loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder) the trade of Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Cole Anthony, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and four first round draft picks. The Grizzlies appear to be stuck in the middle as a team that is not contending but also not committed to full scale rebuilding.
The Sacramento Kings fired 2023 NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown after
starting the season 13-18, and they went 27-24 the rest of the way under
Doug Christie. During the season, the Kings traded De'Aaron Fox in a
three team deal that brought Zach LaVine to Sacramento, reuniting him
with his former Chicago teammate DeMar DeRozan. LaVine and DeRozan did
not advance past the first round with the Bulls, and this "Chicago West"
duo is unlikely to lead the Kings to the 2026 playoffs.
The Portland
Trail Blazers traded leading scorer Anfenee Simons (19.3 ppg) to Boston
for Jrue Holiday, who has been a great complementary player for
championship teams in Milwaukee (2021) and Boston (2024)
but is now 35 years old and showing signs of decline at both ends of
the court. They also signed prodigal son Damian Lillard, who will likely
miss the entire season after suffering a torn left Achilles during the
2025 playoffs while playing for the Milwaukee Bucks, who stretched and
waived his contract to clear space to sign Myles Turner. The continued
development of Deni Avidja and Toumani Camara are bright spots in an
otherwise cloudy picture.
The Phoenix Suns hit the reset button after their "Big Three" of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal failed to deliver a single playoff series win in two seasons, and did not even qualify for postseason play last year. The Suns parted ways with Durant, Beal, Tyus Jones, Jusuf Nurkic, and most of the veterans on the roster except for Booker. Core acquisitions include Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Mark Williams, who will be the starting center if he can stay healthy. The Suns also replaced coach Mike Budenholzer with Jordan Ott, who has no NBA head coaching experience. The Suns were wise to break up an expensive team that did not even come close to contending for a championship, but the current roster is unlikely to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference.
As has been the case for several seasons, the New Orleans Pelicans' hopes depend on Zion Williamson's health. Williamson has played in 30 games or less four times in six years, including missing the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, so it is reasonable to expect that (1) he will miss a lot of games and (2) the Pelicans will miss the playoffs.
The Utah Jazz pulled an Ace (Ace Bailey) instead of capturing the (Cooper) Flagg in the NBA Draft Lottery, providing yet another example of why tanking generally does not pay off.
Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven
of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right
Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.
With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.
Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference
(64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the
second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have
established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they
have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98).
There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level.
The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.
The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen).
However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.
The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.
The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.
3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams.
The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.
The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.
4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's
elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020)
and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting
after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in
rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction
short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First
Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine
(eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight
year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the
All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of
the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617
last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last
season, .284 for his career).
The Bucks added Myles
Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back
appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary
Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard,
who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles
tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton.
Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team,
but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in
terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3
ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of
being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more
than they lost with these roster moves.
In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.
Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding.
Bobby
Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a
banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides
defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis
finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024.
Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.
5) Detroit Pistons:The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after
their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished
second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68
to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the
Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in
points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.
Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.
Despite
their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation,
acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing
Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of
those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.
Beasley
played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3
ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the
team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and
finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second
on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field.
Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point
field goals made (168).
LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2
ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the
past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but
he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive
liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his
career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.
Despite the personnel
losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this
season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue
to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was
last season.
6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.
That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.
7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.
8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six
straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals
twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the
NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently
play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.
The
Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the
disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but
then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of
their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then
won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the
number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the
overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to
how far a team can advance just with great coaching.
The Heat have a
solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least
once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona
fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams
win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.
The Heat
will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a
decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round.
The teams that finish seventh through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.
Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games
after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the
Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done
just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level
performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance
defensively.
Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games.
A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.
The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone
scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.
Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth.
"A work of art contains its verification in itself: artificial, strained concepts do not withstand the test of being turned into images; they fall to pieces, turn out to be sickly and pale, convince no one. Works which draw on truth and present it to us in live and concentrated form grip us, compellingly involve us, and no one ever, not even ages hence, will come forth to refute them."--Alexander Solzhenitsyn (Nobel Lecture)
"The most 'popular,' the most 'successful' writers among us (for a brief period, at least) are, 99 times out of a hundred, persons of mere effrontery--in a word, busy-bodies, toadies, quacks."--Edgar Allan Poe
"In chess what counts is what you know, not whom you know. It's the way life is supposed to be, democratic and just."--Grandmaster Larry Evans
"It's not nuclear physics. You always remember that. But if you write about sports long enough, you're constantly coming back to the point that something buoys people; something makes you feel better for having been there. Something of value is at work there...Something is hallowed here. I think that something is excellence."--Tom Callahan
