Timberwolves Devour Nuggets, Force Game Seven
The Minnesota Timberwolves routed the Denver Nuggets 115-70 to force a game seven on Sunday in Denver. Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 27 points and posted a game-best plus/minus number that looks like a typographical error: +43. Jaden McDaniels scored 21 points, just the third 20 point game of his playoff career. Mike Conley returned to action after missing one game with a calf strain, and his calming influence was evident at both ends of the court to a far greater extent than his boxscore numbers (13 points, five assists) suggest. Karl-Anthony Towns scored just 10 points on 4-10 field goal shooting, but he made his presence felt with 13 rebounds and five assists. The allegedly "unplayable" Rudy Gobert had eight points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+30). He did not block a shot, but his paint presence and activity helped the Timberwolves outscore the Nuggets in the paint 46-36 while holding the Nuggets to the worst field goal percentage (.302) and lowest scoring total in the franchise's playoff history. Naz Reid added 10 points and 11 rebounds in 22 minutes off of the bench as Minnesota won the rebounding battle, 62-43.
Nikola Jokic had a solid game while leading the Nuggets with 22 points and nine rebounds, but the Timberwolves can live with those numbers; their size and their timely double teams held Jokic below his usual production, but the Nuggets did not exploit their opportunities to play four on three: Nuggets not named Jokic shot 17-67 (.254) from the field, with Aaron Gordon scoring 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while the other Nuggets faded into oblivion. Jamal Murray had just 10 points on 4-18 field goal shooting.
This game is a resounding demonstration that momentum does not exist in an NBA playoff series. After Denver's convincing game five win--the Nuggets' third straight victory after losing the first two games at home--it seemed like the Timberwolves had no chance to extend the series; that is what I thought as well--not based on momentum, but based on my unwavering belief that the Nuggets are the better team. The Nuggets finished one game ahead of the Timberwolves during the regular season, and that slender margin determined that Denver will host game seven. History suggests that homecourt advantage in general--and homecourt advantage in game seven in particular--matters a lot. The Timberwolves are unlikely to get 36 points off of their bench in game seven, and the Nuggets are highly unlikely to shoot so horribly in the friendly confines of their home arena.
The Nuggets shot 7-36 (.194) from three point range, including 2-9 in the first quarter as the Timberwolves sprinted to a 31-14 lead. During the halftime show, ESPN's Bob Myers made two excellent points: 1) Denver missed wide open three pointers, and 2) when you are missing three pointers--even if they are open--you should stop shooting them, put your head down, and drive to the hoop. During the season, the Nuggets ranked 30th (last) in three point field goals attempted (31.2 per game) and 10th in three point field goal percentage, so it is out of character both for them to shoot that poorly from beyond the arc and for them to shoot so many treys. High volume three point shooting leads to high variance results; in Denver's game five win, the Nuggets shot 9-19 (.474) from three point range, and those kind of numbers are what one should expect to see in game seven, regardless of whether or not the Timberwolves keep double teaming Jokic: there is not a requirement that after a star player is trapped his teammates must keep jacking up three pointers.
The prevailing narrative after game five is that Minnesota's loss was Rudy Gobert's fault, that the four-time Defensive Player of the Year is "unplayable," and that Jokic humiliated Gobert. Inconvenient facts were conveniently ignored (this is a media specialty that extends well beyond NBA coverage): in game five, Gobert contributed 18 points on 7-7 field goal shooting plus a
game-high 11 rebounds with a -2 plus/minus number while every other Minnesota
starter was -12 or worse, but let's not talk about that. Instead, let's give a microphone to the guy who punched Jusuf Nurkic in the face and put Gobert in a headlock. What does Draymond Green think about Gobert's performance?
Green provided unintentional comedy during his Wednesday night guest appearance on TNT when he said that he guards Jokic better than anyone who is guarding Jokic during this series. Green also declared that it is unacceptable to let Jokic be both a big-time scorer and a big-time playmaker; you have to take something away, Green solemnly declared--as if he is the man to do that job. Perhaps Green does not know that boxscores from all of his games are available online; the last time the Green faced Jokic, Jokic had 32 points, 16 rebounds, and 16 assists as Denver beat Green's Golden State Warriors, 119-103. Jokic shot 13-24 from the field and had a +20 plus/minus number, while Green logged his customary triple single (seven points, five rebounds, four assists) along with a game-high six turnovers and a game-worst -23 plus/minus number. Yes, Jokic had as many rebounds as Green had points, rebounds, and assists combined! Some players say that journalists who have never played the game are not qualified to analyze the game--but, with all due respect to Green, his personal experience does not seem to qualify him to speak about how to effectively guard Jokic, and the obvious personal grudges that Green has against Gobert, Nurkic, and other players disqualify him as an objective commentator.
Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective? What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story), Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.
The real story of this series has nothing to do with the incessant narratives about momentum or Gobert being "unplayable" or Edwards being the next Michael Jordan. The real story of this series is that these two teams are mirror images of each other because their rosters were built by the same executive, Tim Connelly: both teams are big and physical, both teams defend well, and neither team relies on "pace and space." The Nuggets have Jokic and homecourt advantage, and those two factors are likely to be the difference in game seven.
Labels: Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Draymond Green, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM
Jokic Delivers 40 Point, 13 Assist Masterclass as Nuggets Defeat Timberwolves, 112-97
Nikola Jokic does not say much, but he does not have to say much because his game speaks volumes. He scored a game-high 40 points, grabbed seven rebounds, and dished for a game-high 13 assists with no turnovers as his Denver Nuggets cruised past the Minnesota Timberwolves 112-97 to take a 3-2 series lead. Jokic had an excellent game four (35 points, seven rebounds, seven assists), including 16 fourth quarter points, but he was even better in game five, shooting 15-22 from the field while showing off an array of moves both in the paint and on the perimeter. Even though Jokic is a big-time scorer, he is also unselfish, and his unselfishness is contagious; it is refreshing to watch the
Nuggets hunt the best shots for the team as opposed to players hunting
for individual opportunities for points or assists. Aaron Gordon had another strong performance (18 points, 10 rebounds, five assists), and Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 16 points each.
Karl Anthony-Towns led Minnesota with 23 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 18 points on 7-7 field goal shooting plus a game-high 11 rebounds. Gobert will undoubtedly be the scapegoat because that is the preferred narrative for many media members, but it should be noted that he had a -2 plus/minus number while every other Minnesota starter was -12 or worse. It is true that Gobert cannot guard Jokic one on one, but no one can guard a great player one on one; when Hakeem Olajuwon torched David Robinson in the 1995 playoffs that did not mean that Robinson is terrible but rather that Olajuwon is an all-time great.
It is fascinating to observe how media members shape their preferred narratives. When LeBron James' teams lose, it is never his fault, even though he is touted as being the greatest player of all-time. When Russell Westbrook's teams lose, it is always his fault, no matter how he is used or how his teammates performed. Rudy Gobert has been the defensive anchor for a Minnesota team that finished third in the Western Conference, but the fact that he cannot lock down Jokic supposedly proves that he is "unplayable."
Only a few days ago, we were told that Anthony Edwards is the next Michael Jordan. If that is true, then why wouldn't this loss be his fault after he scored just 18 points on 5-15 field goal shooting?
Michael Jordan played 179 playoff games. Do you know how many times he scored 18 points or less in a playoff game? Four times. Jordan's teams went 6-0 in the NBA Finals as he won six Finals MVPs. Edwards' teams have won one playoff series. The foolish comparisons need to stop. Edwards is a very talented young player, and he deserves the opportunity to become whatever he will become without being prematurely built up as the next Jordan. Edwards is not even close to Jordan in productivity, let alone career accomplishments. Edwards averaged a career-high 25.9 ppg this year in his fourth season, finishing seventh in MVP voting. Jordan averaged 35.0 ppg in his fourth season while winning his second consecutive scoring title and the first of his five regular season MVPs--and Jordan missed most of his second season due to a foot injury, so his fourth season was really just his third full season. The 22 year old Edwards has yet to match 21 year old rookie Jordan, who averaged 28.2 ppg and finished sixth in MVP voting.
That being said, even though it is unreasonable to compare Edwards to Jordan it is not unreasonable to expect Edwards to put his stamp on what was essentially an elimination game: game five winners in 2-2 series win the series over 80% of the time. Edwards has done a lot of talking on and off the court during this series, but well done is better than well said; Edwards has scored less than 20 points in two of the past three games, and that is not enough.
The main story here, though, is not the Timberwolves. The Nuggets are the reigning NBA champions, and after falling into an 0-2 hole they are one win away from logging four straight victories against the Timberwolves.
The Nuggets did not play well by their standards while eliminating the L.A. Lakers 4-1, but they have had to raise their game to beat this strong Minnesota team. This brings to mind the time that Larry Bird spent most of a game versus Portland playing left-handed. Asked why he did it, Bird quipped that he was saving his right hand for the Lakers (that was back when the Lakers were a contender, unlike now). The Nuggets can beat the Lakers playing "left-handed," but that will not work against the Timberwolves. It looks like playing five games against the Lakers was poor preparation for facing a legit playoff team--but now that the Nuggets got their wake-up call they are poised to put the Timberwolves to sleep.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 2:28 AM
Brunson Scores 44 as Knicks Rout Pacers 121-91 to Take 3-2 Series Lead
Have you heard any good fairy tales recently? Here are three that I heard: "The Pacers have all the momentum," "The Pacers have figured out how to stop Jalen Brunson," and "The Knicks are tired because Coach Thibodeau forces his key rotation players to play too many minutes."
Here is the nonfiction story: the Knicks beat the Pacers 121-91 to take a 3-2 lead in their best of seven series. The Pacers dropped to 1-5 on the road in the 2024 playoffs, and even if they win game six at home by 40 points they would have to win game seven on the road to survive this series.
The playoffs are about matchups, not momentum; that is why I picked the
Knicks to win this series in six games, and that is why--even after
Indiana's 121-89 win in game four--I predicted that the Knicks would win game five.
The fairy tale about the Pacers figuring out Brunson is brought to us by the same geniuses who asserted during last year's playoffs that the L.A. Lakers "found something" by putting Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic. What the Lakers found was the wrong end of a 4-0 sweep, and they followed that up by being on the wrong end of a 4-1 loss to Jokic's Denver Nuggets this year.
Brunson dropped 44 points on the Pacers, shooting 18-35 from the field in 43 minutes while passing for a game-high seven assists and amassing a gaudy +31 plus/minus number. Brunson set a Knicks playoff record with 28 first half points. This is Brunson's fifth playoff game this year with at least 40 points and at least five assists, tying Michael Jordan (1990) for the fourth most such games during one postseason. LeBron James (2018) and Jerry West (1965) share the record (seven), while Jordan (1989) ranks third.
The notion that playing 40 minutes or even 48 minutes in an NBA game will cause irreparable harm to the best conditioned athletes in the world is, too put it mildly, nonsense. There are 31 players in ABA/NBA history who averaged at least 40 mpg during their playoff careers, topped by Wilt Chamberlain (47.2 mpg). "You saw the Knicks tonight? Does this look like a team that is worn out and finished? Not even close," TNT's Stan Van Gundy declared during the waning moments of game five after lambasting the foolish media members who keep criticizing New York Coach Tom Thibodeau for how many minutes his key players are playing at a time when the Knicks are missing three starters and a key rotation player. Van Gundy did not call out anyone by name, but I will: the chorus of nonsense featured usual suspects "Screamin' A" Smith and Mike Wilbon, with TNT's Draymond Green uttering similar sentiments during the pregame show. Van Gundy made a point of mentioning that Green once played at least 40 minutes in seven straight playoff games.
The supposedly worn out and worn down Knicks demonstrated a lot of energy and hustle in support of Brunson's scoring explosion. Josh Hart added 18 points and 11 rebounds, Alec Burks scored 18 points
off of the bench, Miles McBride chipped in 17 points after being moved
into the starting lineup, and Isaiah Hartenstein had seven points and a
game-high 17 rebounds. Hartenstein's 12 offensive rebounds tied Charles
Oakley's franchise record for offensive rebounds in a playoff game
(offensive rebounds have been an official NBA statistic since 1973-74, after Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell retired).
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers with 22 points and eight rebounds, while Myles Turner had 16 points and five rebounds, and Tyrese Haliburton managed just 13 points and five assists.
The Knicks' advantages--other than having Brunson--are their physicality, their defense, and their energy level. In game five, they outrebounded the Pacers 53-29, outscored the Pacers in the paint 62-36, and held the Pacers to 91 points on .431 field goal shooting. During the regular season, the Pacers led the NBA in scoring (123.3 ppg) and field goal percentage (.507). Teams that win game five in a 2-2 series win the series over 80% of the time, so in the most important game of this season for both teams the Knicks held the Pacers to 32 points below their scoring average.
Offense, three point shooting, and "pace and space" get the headlines and enrich some writers and "stat gurus"--but defense wins championships.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 12:47 AM
The NBA Playoffs Are About Matchups, Not Momentum
It is fascinating, though at times frustrating, to listen to analysis and commentary about the NBA in general, and the frustration increases during the NBA playoffs. Any competent student of basketball history understands that playoff series are decided by matchup advantages. While there are temporary momentum swings based on factors such as a player hitting a few shots in a row or a key player getting into foul trouble, the outcome of a best of seven series is determined by which team best exploits its matchup advantages.
Generally, both teams have some matchup advantages, and usually the team that has more matchup advantages will prevail; if one team has no matchup advantages, then that team will likely be swept, but there are not that many sweeps precisely because most playoff teams have at least one matchup advantage that is significant enough to get at least one win. Injuries, foul trouble, and ejections/suspensions can alter the balance, but those factors tend to even out unless they involve a superstar caliber player. Also, as Danny Ainge pointed out decades ago, this is not the Tour de France: a team that wins a game by 30 points does not start the next game with a 30 point lead.
Anyone who understands the playoffs does not overreact to the outcome of one game. If you listen to former players and former coaches who have become analysts on radio or TV, they tend to not fall into the trap of saying things like, "Team A won by 30 points and will carry that momentum into the next game." There are a few former players who seem to be more interested in attracting attention with hot takes than in producing logical analysis, but most former players understand the nature of competition. It is quite instructive to listen to the bleatings of "Screamin' A" Smith and Mike Wilbon (an excellent feature columnist who is miscast as a basketball expert) and then contrast what they say with the analysis provided by former General Manager Bob Myers, former Coach Hubie Brown, and former players like Tim Legler, Sam Mitchell, and Brendan Haywood, who had the guts to point out when Wilbon made no sense (which probably explains why Haywood works for NBA TV now instead of ESPN).
Analysts who have playing, coaching, or basketball management experience know that each playoff game is a distinct entity, as Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle said yesterday after his Pacers blew out the New York Knicks, 121-89; that series is heading back to New York for game five, and the Knicks have the advantage of playing game five and game seven (if necessary) at home. Perhaps injuries and being undermanned will wear down the Knicks, but the reality is that the Knicks have homecourt advantage because over the course of the 82 game regular season they were better than the Pacers in terms of physicality, defense, and energy level. Those are New York's advantages, and despite Indiana's game four win--during which the Pacers exploited their advantages in depth and open court quickness--it is likely that the Knicks will win a grind it out game five at home.
"Screamin' A" Smith confuses decibel levels with IQ points, but loud nonsense is still nonsense; it is foolish to act as if every loss by a favored team should lead to a referendum on that team's mental toughness, because if that were true then Michael Jordan's teams would not have lost playoff games by 26 points and by 21 points, nor would they have fallen behind 0-2 in the 1993 Eastern Conference Finals. That is not to suggest that some games do not matter or that teams should not try to win every game. Any competitor will tell you that every game matters. The point is that the nature of high level competition is such that it is not possible to win every game, nor is it possible to avoid ever being blown out.
That is why I did not overreact after Minnesota took a 2-0 lead over Denver, who I picked to win that series in six games. I understood that a team that is up 2-0 is in great position to win the series, but I also believed that the Nuggets have matchup advantages that will come to the forefront more often than not over the course of a long series. The Nuggets have now won two straight games to set up a pivotal game five at home. Minnesota could still win the series, but during a race to four wins the better team will demonstrate its superiority more often than not, and Denver is the better team.
Blame and credit are often apportioned in ways that make no sense; some players are given a free pass no matter how poorly they perform and no matter how many excuses they make for their poor performances, while other players are blamed for outcomes that are clearly not their fault or within their control. For example, many media members are either "stat gurus" or have fallen hook, line, and sinker for the "advanced basketball statistics" gospel that asserts--among other things--that size is overrated, post play is obsolete, and spacing/range shooting are the most important factors for team success; these media members seek out any excuse to push their preferred narratives. I try to avoid listening to the screamers and the blithering idiots, but I caught second wind of enough foolishness today to realize that the narrative du jour is that Rudy Gobert should receive much of the blame for Minnesota's game four loss to Denver. Gobert is a favorite target for many media members because he plays in the paint and does not space the floor or make three pointers. It is true that Gobert committed a game-high five turnovers, and that he was whistled for five fouls--but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds, he drew enough fouls to earn a game-high nine free throw attempts, he grabbed a game-high five offensive rebounds, and he converted his easy opportunities at the hoop at a .600 clip (3-5 field goal shooting). Plus/minus numbers can be noisy, but he had a team-best +9 plus/minus number, which means that the Timberwolves outscored the Nuggets by nine points when he was in the game but were outscored by 17 points during the 13 minutes that he did not play. Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year whose job description is to protect the paint defensively, grab double digit rebounds, and convert high percentage opportunities in the paint--all of which he did during game four. In a perfect world, he would do those things without committing a single foul or turnover, but we do not live in a perfect world and there is no such thing as a perfect player.
If you watched game four with understanding, you noticed that Denver conceded open shots to Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who finished with two points on 1-7 field goal shooting. His plus/minus number was a game-worst -20 in 24 minutes, meaning that the Timberwolves fell behind by nearly a point a minute during his time on the court. Collectively, Minnesota's bench was -47 while Denver's bench was +24. Denver often struggles when Nikola Jokic rests, but that was not the case in game four--but praising Denver's reserves Reggie Jackson, Christian Braun, and Justin Holiday while critiquing Minnesota's performance when reserves Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and Kyle Anderson were on the court requires (1) paying attention to what happened during the game and (2) describing accurately what happened instead of shaping stories to fit predetermined preferred narratives about Gobert.
"Screamin' A" yells about how each game makes him feel and about which cities he prefers to visit, but why should anyone care about either of those things? His rooting preferences are not more important or more interesting than anyone else's, and he makes at least $10 million per year, so he can visit any city he wants any time that he wants. If he loves South Beach so much, he should just head there now and give more air time to Myers; fans who are basketball purists would prefer to hear the perspective of a person who built championship teams over the ravings of someone who is unwilling or incapable of objectively explaining why teams win and why teams lose.
In contrast, TNT's Kenny Smith brings the perspective of a point guard who starred in high school and college, played at a near All-Star level early in his NBA career, and then served as an excellent role player on two NBA championship teams. His studio show partners Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal joke around a lot and engage in a lot of high jinks, but when they break down a game or a team they speak with the insights of all-time great players. ESPN spent most of this season hyping up the L.A. Lakers, Golden State Warriors, and L.A. Clippers, but Barkley repeatedly insisted that the Lakers and Warriors are not any good, and he called out the "idiots" who suggested otherwise. O'Neal stated that he did not trust the Clippers in big moments because of the checkered playoff resumes of James Harden and Paul George, who disappeared on cue as the Clippers lost to the Dallas Mavericks.
If ESPN executives are trying to figure out why no matter how many times they change their studio lineup their show is killed in the ratings by TNT, they should look no further than this simple truth: Banter is not entertaining if it is all nonsense and no substance.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Nickeil Alexaner-Walker, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 10:57 PM
Jokic Scores 16 Fourth Quarter Points as Nuggets Tame Timberwolves and Tie Series at 2-2
Remember all of that talk just a few days ago about the implications of the Minnesota Timberwolves sweeping the Denver Nuggets? The Nuggets silenced that noise by winning game three in Minnesota on Friday night, and the Nuggets regained homecourt advantage with a 115-107 win in Minnesota on Sunday night. The Nuggets shot .570 from the field and logged assists on 29 of their 45 field goals made in a brilliant display of efficient offensive basketball.
As usual, Nikola Jokic led the way. The three-time regular season MVP scored 35 points on 15-26 field goal shooting while grabbing seven rebounds and dishing for seven assists. Jokic professed indifference regarding critics who questioned his selection as the 2024 NBA regular season MVP, but his fourth quarter play was anything but indifferent: he scored 16 points on 6-10 field goal shooting while playing all 12 minutes. Jokic is the hub of Denver's offense: when he is guarded one on one he scores at a very efficient rate, and when he is trapped he not only gives up the ball willingly but he makes the right pass even if that does not led to him getting the assist--in contrast to some players who hold the ball because they are more focused on getting an assist than on making the right play for the team.
Aaron Gordon made a major contribution with 27 points on 11-12 field goal shooting while also snaring seven rebounds, and passing for six assists. Denver's successful counter to Minnesota's pressure defense against Jamal Murray is to have Gordon bring the ball up and initiate the offense. Murray added 19 points and a team-high eight assists. Chrisitan Braun (11 points) and Justin Holiday (10 points) made strong contributions off of the bench.
Anthony Edwards made good on his vow after game three to be more aggressive and more effective in game four, pouring in a game-high 44 points on 16-25 field goal shooting. He had five rebounds and five assists. Edwards is a wonderful player, and it would be nice if media members gave him the space to blossom into the best version of himself as opposed to forcing comparisons with all-time greats like Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade. Jordan won six championships, six Finals MVPs, five regular season MVPs, and 10 scoring titles. Wade won three championships, one Finals MVP, and one scoring title. Edwards just won his first playoff series, so from an accomplishment standpoint the comparisons are an insult to the established legends--and from a skill set standpoint, Edwards relies on the outside shot much more than Jordan or Wade did.
Five Minnesota players joined Edwards as double figure scorers: Mike Conley (15 points, game-high nine assists), Karl Anthony-Towns (13 points, 12 rebounds), Rudy Gobert (11 points, 14 rebounds), Jaden McDaniels (11 points), and Naz Reid (11 points). However--and as the TNT studio crew correctly pointed out at halftime and after the game--the Timberwolves need more from Towns, who shot just 5-18 from the field.
The Timberwolves reverted to their old habit of squandering too many possessions with dumb plays at crucial moments. This game--and perhaps this series--turned on a bizarre sequence in the final 20.2 seconds of the first half. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope drilled a three pointer to put Denver up 59-49, and Minnesota had an opportunity to hold the ball for the last shot--but Jokic stole the ball from Edwards and made a precise outlet pass to Michael Porter Jr. for a dunk. Nickeil Alexander-Walker''s long inbounds pass was then stolen by Murray, who sank a halfcourt three pointer just before time expired. There is often a lot of talk about "clutch points" and about what happens in a game's closing moments, but the wild conclusion of the first half when Denver scored eight points in 20.2 seconds provided the game's final margin. It is important to emphasize that many players in Murray's position would have preserved their field goal percentage by making sure to not heave the ball until after the buzzer sounded; taking that low percentage shot to help the team at the possible cost of individual statistics speaks volumes about how the Nuggets' mentality differs from the mentality of many other NBA teams.
After the game, Minnesota Coach Chris Finch described the debacle at the end of the first half as a series of "inexcusable plays" and flatly stated the root cause for the loss: "We lost our composure." He is correct on both counts, and it is interesting how numbers do not always tell the full story. Denver committed one more turnover than Minnesota (12-11), and Minnesota only committed one more foul than Denver (21-20), but if you watched the game with understanding you saw how costly Minnesota's miscues were based on score, time, and overall game situation. For example, Towns wasted a foul 50 feet away from the hoop by bumping Jokic at midcourt when the Nuggets were not threatening to score; that kind of play moves the other team closer to the bonus without conferring any kind of advantage such as stopping an advantage fast break or preventing a player from converting an easy shot at close range. Not all fouls are created equal (and the same can be said for most statistics, which is one reason why "advanced basketball statistics" are not nearly as accurate or meaningful as "stat gurus" suggest, because numbers taken out of the context of situational basketball can be deceptive).
The Timberwolves have improved a lot in the past year, and they have taken strides toward becoming a legit contender, but the final step for them is to clean up their handling of situational basketball at both ends of the court. On paper, they controlled the series after taking a 2-0 series lead with back to back wins at Denver, but now in this tied race to four wins the Nuggets hold the advantage of hosting game five and game seven (if necessary). The home team has yet to win a game during this series, but that is likely to change in the pivotal game five at Denver, because after receiving a wake-up call in the first two games the Nuggets understand the level of energy and physicality required to deal with the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves are not a team that can be toyed with like the L.A. Lakers, and in the last two games the Nuggets have stepped up to the challenge.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Anthony Edwards, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert
posted by David Friedman @ 8:44 AM
