How Good Will the Wembanyama-Fox Duo Be?
The San Antonio Spurs have paired second year wunderkind Victor Wembanyama with De'Aaron Fox to form what they hope will be a championship-winning duo. The Spurs acquired Fox--who earned one All-Star selection in seven and a half seasons with the Sacramento Kings--in a three team deal that sent two-time All-Star Zach LaVine from Chicago to Sacramento along with Sidy Cissoko, three first round draft picks, and three second round draft picks. Jordan McLaughlin will join Fox in San Antonio, and Chicago will receive Zach Collins, Kevin Huerter, Tre Jones, and their own 2025 first round draft pick that they had previously traded.
As I noted in my articles about the Jimmy Butler trade and the blockbuster Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, the general rule of thumb when evaluating an NBA trade is that the team that received the best player "won," although size matters in the NBA, and age is also a factor worth considering.
Fox is the best player in this deal; he is a 27 year old 6-3 point guard with career averages of 21.5 ppg, 6.1 apg, 3.9 rpg, and 1.4 spg. He led the NBA in steals last season (2.0 spg), and he ranks eighth in steals (1.6 spg) this season. He has ranked in the top 10 in assists twice (eighth in 2019, ninth in 2021), and he has ranked in the top 10 in scoring once (eighth in 2024 with a career-high 26.6 ppg). Fox has averaged at least 23.2 ppg each season since 2021-22, including 24.9 ppg this season. Fox has made the All-NBA Team once (Third Team selection in 2023). He is a very good player, but he is not a great player; he is not a perennial All-Star, he has never come close to making the All-NBA First Team, and he has an 0-1 career playoff series record that demonstrates that he has yet to lift his team to high level postseason success.
LaVine is an often injured 6-5 swingman who will soon turn 30 years old, and who last made the All-Star team in 2022. His career averages are 20.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, and 4.3 apg. He is not a good defensive player and, like Fox, he has an 0-1 career playoff series record.
The other players in this deal, like the other players in the Butler trade and the Doncic-Davis trade, were included to facilitate the deal more so than for the direct impact they are expected to have on the court. The multiple draft picks are like stock futures: they may prove to be extremely valuable, and they may prove to be worthless. Much like a smart investor maintains a diverse portfolio, a smart team does not rely too heavily on just the draft, just free agency, or just trades, but instead keeps open as many options as possible to improve the roster in terms of talent, depth, and salary cap flexibility.
Will Wembanyama and Fox win at least one championship together in San Antonio? There are many reasons to be skeptical.
The Spurs tanked to acquire the draft rights to Wembanyama, even though it has been proven over a long period of time and a large sample size that tanking does not work. "Stat guru" executives and delusional writers have made a lot of money touting the notion that the Philadelphia 76ers "tanked to the top" despite the fact that the much-praised "Process" has not yielded more than a string of second round losses--and this season, despite having a "Big Three" featuring Joel "The Process" Embiid, Paul "Playoff P" George, and promising young guard Tyrese Maxey, the 76ers are struggling just to qualify for the playoffs. Tanking teams tend to not ever win big for a variety of reasons, including the fact that tanking promotes bad habits and creates a culture where losing is acceptable (or even desirable); bad habits and a negative culture are a lot more difficult to change than "stat gurus" are willing to admit. Embiid has been in the NBA since 2014, and he still has not developed proper training habits off of the court or a winning mentality on the court, demonstrated every time we see his out of shape body lumbering back on defense. As Jeff Van Gundy used to say during his TV commentating days: horses trot, players run.
The Spurs went 22-60 in their tanking season and then, after drafting Wembanyama, they went 22-60 in his rookie season. They added veterans Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes prior to this season, and they are currently 22-27--a significant improvement, but hardly even close to championship contention. Building a championship team is not like microwaving a packaged meal; "stat gurus" keep acting as if they can just throw talent together to win instantly and they keep being slapped in the face by the hard reality that great teams are not built that way. Great teams are built from the ground up by developing chemistry and by inculcating the right habits. Wembanyama is a highly productive young player who does not have a clue what it takes to win at the NBA level. Fox is a productive player entering his prime who has yet to win at the NBA level. Why should we believe that throwing those two players together is going to produce anything other that some regular season wins followed by, at best, early playoff exits? Wembanyama may be the best defensive player in the NBA, but the Spurs rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage and 19th in points allowed. It takes a well put together team to win at a high level, not just a bunch of individually talented players.
Fox may be talented enough to push the Spurs above .500 this season, but it will be very surprising if the Spurs win a playoff series in 2025, and it will be interesting to see how long it takes for Wembanyama to notch his first playoff series win. Embiid missed his first two seasons due to injury, and did not win a playoff series until four years after he was drafted. He has reached the second round just five times, and he is 0-5 in those series.
This is not a bad trade for the Spurs. The Spurs clearly "won" this trade and they are better now than they were before. The point is that it will take more than one good trade to undo the damage done by tanking. It is interesting to contrast Pat Riley's Miami Heat--a team that refuses to tank--with the Spurs (and other tanking teams). Since LeBron James left the Heat in 2014, the Heat have reached the NBA Finals twice, participated in the playoffs in seven out of 10 seasons, and had a losing record just twice. After Tim Duncan retired in 2016, the Spurs reached the Western Conference Finals once, lost in the second round twice, and have not participated in the playoffs since 2020. The Spurs have had a losing record in each of the past five seasons, and will have to scramble to not have a losing record this season. They may not have been losing on purpose that whole time, but they also did not build a foundation for success; they just hoped to hit the Draft Lottery jackpot--and even after "winning" the Draft Lottery they are still a losing team. Gregg Popovich used to quip that he had nothing to do with the Spurs' success and that he was just lucky to have had Tim Duncan for so long, but that joke probably seems less funny to Spurs' fans now than it did during their championship-winning glory days. Which fan base has had more fun and received more value in the past decade or so--Miami or San Antonio? Tanking is just awful for the league, for its fans, and for its media partners. At any give time, it seems that at least five or six of the NBA's 30 teams are losing on purpose, and that makes the product almost unwatchable. It was hilarious to hear J.J. Redick lambasting Charles Barkley for telling the truth that is plain for anyone to see: the NBA has a lot of bad teams playing bad basketball.
The other two teams in this trade seem to be adrift, at best. Mike Brown brought some stability to the Kings--leading the team to the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason appearance since 2006--but now that the Kings fired him and traded their leading scorer (Fox) they seem to be heading back toward their comfort zone of dysfunction. The Kings enjoyed a brief 11-4 honeymoon under new Coach Doug Christie before losing four of their last five games. LaVine has never been part of an NBA team that won at a high level, and that is unlikely to change now.
As for the Bulls, it is not clear if they are intentionally tanking or just perpetually clueless, but they have reached the playoffs just once since 2017 and they have not won a playoff series since 2015. Unloading LaVine's burdensome contract is good from a salary cap flexibility standpoint, but in the short run (and for the foreseeable future) they have less talent and will have to scrap and claw just to get into the Play-In Tournament.
Labels: Chicago Bulls, De'Aaron Fox, Jordan McLaughlin, Kevin Huerter, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Sidy Cissoko, tanking, Tre Jones, Zach Collins, Zach LaVine
posted by David Friedman @ 12:56 PM
Warriors Hope to See "Playoff Jimmy" Instead of Disinterested Jimmy
Jimmy Butler won his power struggle with the Miami Heat, forcing his way out and receiving a two year, $112 million contract extension from the Golden State Warriors that more than covers the roughly $6 million of salary that he lost after being suspended three times this season by the Heat. The Heat sent Butler, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations to the Warriors in exchange for Kyle Anderson, Davion Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins, and a first round draft pick. Several other teams participated in the deal as well. The Toronto Raptors received P.J. Tucker from the Utah Jazz, plus a second round draft pick and cash considerations from the Heat. The Detroit Pistons received Dennis Schroder from the Jazz via the Warriors, and they also received Lindy Waters III and a 2031 second round pick via the Warriors. The Jazz received K.J. Martin from the Pistons via the Philadelphia 76ers, Josh Richardson via the Heat, two second round draft picks, and cash considerations from the Heat.
Most of these moves will be remembered as bookkeeping maneuvers facilitating Butler's departure from Miami in exchange for three players plus a first round draft pick. In my analysis of the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade, I wrote, "The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at
which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters." Butler has earned six All-Star selections, five All-NBA Team selections, and five All-Defensive Team selections while also winning the 2023 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; he has more accolades, accomplishments, and honors than all of the other players in this deal combined. Butler is 35 years old, but he has been reasonably productive this season (17.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 4.8 apg, a career-high .540 FG%). Wiggins, the only other player in the deal who made the All-Star team (2022), is almost 30 years old. He was a vital contributor to Golden State's 2022 championship team, but he has been inconsistent (and often unavailable) since 2022.
The Warriors are the clear winners of this trade based on the best player criterion. Size is not a factor in this trade, as none of the players are taller than 6-9 or power players in the paint, but age is a factor worth considering. Butler is five years older than Wiggins, and four years older than Anderson, Schroder and Richardson. Other than the 39 year old Tucker, there is a good chance that every rotation player included in this trade has more years left in the league than Butler does. Age matters little to the win-or-bust Warriors, but the Heat did the best that they could to obtain players who can be in their rotation for the next several years (or who are viable enough to be packaged for other rotation players or draft picks)--and they did well to obtain anything of value for an aging, disgruntled player who wears out his welcome everywhere he goes.
After the trade, Butler delivered a brief video message to Warriors'
fans, concluding with these bold words: "Championship coming soon." Talk is cheap, but $112 million is not cheap for a 35 year old who has never been durable, has never made the All-NBA First Team, and has never finished higher than 10th in regular season MVP voting.
The "Playoff Jimmy" nickname is primarily based on three extended Miami
playoff runs (2020 NBA Finals, 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, 2023
Eastern Conference Finals), but Butler averaged just 14.5 ppg on .297 field goal
shooting when the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round in 2021, and
he shot .451 from the field or worse in his six playoff appearances with
Chicago, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. Butler missed the 2024 playoffs
due to injury, and his comment after the playoffs that the Heat would
have beaten Boston if he had played earned a stern rebuke from Heat
President Pat Riley, who bluntly stated that players who don't
participate should not talk. That may not have been the end of Butler's positive relationship with the Heat, but it seems like it was the beginning of the end, because Riley's public censure of Butler reflected Riley's position that Butler is not available enough to be worth a max contract extension.
It is possible that Butler will play with renewed energy and vigor for the Warriors after receiving the contract extension that the Heat refused to give him, but it is also possible that now that he got paid he will be satisfied and unmotivated. He built a mythology about himself that he is all about the team and about winning, but the way that he forced Miami to trade him demonstrated that he is all about flexing his power for personal gain. Butler has not played in more than 65 games in a season since 2016-17, when he was 27; it is unlikely that he will suddenly become more durable or more reliable, so the Warriors should expect to get--at best--130 regular season games or less from Butler out of a possible 164 in the next two seasons.
Published reports indicate that the Warriors preferred to bring back Kevin Durant for a second tour of duty instead of acquiring Butler, but Durant balked. It is no secret that Durant left the Warriors to get away from the volatile Draymond Green, and it is reasonable to assume that his refusal to return to the Bay Area is primarily--if not exclusively--based on his disinclination to team up again with Mr. "Triple Single." The Athletic recently ranked Green as the 100th greatest NBA player of all-time, which is high--and undeserved--praise for a player sporting career averages of 8.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, and 5.6 apg with shooting splits of .450/.322/.707 (The Athletic ranked Butler 99th all-time, which seems a bit too high, though I agree with ranking Butler ahead of Green). There is no doubt that Green contributed playmaking and defense to the Warriors' four most recent championship teams, but he was fortunate to play alongside three legitimate Hall of Famers: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Klay Thompson. When Green took the court for the 2019-20 Warriors without those three great players, the whole world saw what Green is all about as he averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. Green is a high level role player, not an all-time great player; separate him from great players, and he has little impact on winning (which does not change the fact that he has some impact on winning when he is surrounded by great players).
When people talk about Green's role on championship teams they should also talk about his role on costing the Warriors opportunities to win other championships as a result of his out of control behavior leading to suspensions and leading to Durant's departure/refusal to return. It will be interesting to see how history judges the Warriors' decision to hold onto Green while losing Durant, Thompson, and other players. Perhaps there is no market for Green's services outside of Golden State, but if there is any market then the Warriors should have gotten rid of Green and kept (or at least brought back) Durant.
Prior to Butler's arrival, the Warriors were fighting to stay above .500 and earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament. If all goes well, Butler could help the Warriors sneak into the playoffs, but it is difficult to picture this team winning a playoff series against any of the Western Conference's top four teams. It will be interesting to observe the Butler-Green chemistry, particularly if the Warriors continue to hover around .500. Neither player is shy about expressing his opinions.
Butler seemed poised to win
the unofficial prize for self-centered inflation of his importance/worth
after quitting on his team and pouting about losing his "joy" because of
merely being paid close to $50 million per year to dribble a basketball, but then Schroder opened his mouth and claimed the prize all for himself. Schroder, a minor figure in the multi-team deal, will make $13 million
this season. He is scoring 14.4 ppg on .418 field goal shooting this season, numbers
that are in line with his career averages, and he is very dissatisfied
with his lot in life, whining that the way that NBA teams trade
players is equivalent to "modern slavery." Declaring that NBA players are slaves is so wildly delusional that
it almost defies description. There are millions of people in the world
who are struggling to obtain enough food to eat and who are deprived of
basic human rights; those people are suffering modern slavery, and they would gladly trade places with Schroder. What Schroder fails to acknowledge is that--unlike a slave--he has the freedom to choose a different job, to choose where he lives, and even to make idiotic public statements without fear of repercussions from the government or his employer.
Labels: Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Anderson, Miami Heat, P.J. Tucker, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 10:05 AM
Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years
"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season.
LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.
It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center
and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance.
We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to
see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the
4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball.
The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years?
Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.
The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.
Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.
The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time.
More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.
My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM
