Lillard's Loyalty
The Portland Trail Blazers are on pace for their third sub-.500 season in the past four years, and their fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals is a distant memory. Damian Lillard is having the most statistically productive individual season of his career, posting a career high in scoring (32.2 ppg) while also matching his career high in field goal percentage (.463) and exceeding his career averages in both assists and rebounds. As long as Lillard shines while the Trail Blazers struggle, there will be speculation about whether the undersized 32 year old guard will decide that he wants out and whether the franchise will decide that a rebuild is necessary.
Lillard has consistently stated that he will never leave Portland. In a December 10, 2019 The Players Tribune article titled "Loyalty Over Everything," Lillard declared his permanent commitment to the city and the team while also snapping back at the notion that his logo shots are low percentage attempts:
I'm
saying, you think you know how deep this goes, but you have no idea.
When I say that I will never, ever switch up on the city of Portland, I
mean what I say. When I say that I will never, ever switch up on this
organization, I mean what I say.
They
might switch up on me. That's business. That's basketball. But I will
never switch up on the city. I don't want it easy. I'm drawn to the
struggle. When I came here, we hadn't won a playoff series since 2000.
You had so many injuries to franchise guys like Brandon Roy and Greg
Oden over the years, and it's so tough to come back from that. Even
going way back, you had All-Stars like Clyde Drexler and Bill Walton who
didn't choose to end their careers as a Blazer.
Well, I'm going to be that. I'm going to carry that. I'm going to bring a ring to this city or go down swinging...
I ain't turning my back on the city, because the city has been riding with me since Day One.
I'm
not for the fake or the pretend. Too much of that going around these
days. I'm for the authentic. It's the same as it was when we were
sleeping four-to-a-motel-room with the Rebels. I'm trying to win with my
people. Everything I ever experienced, every chapter of it, the good
and the bad and the grimy, that's what made me.
That's
what's so funny to me, when people want to talk to me about the
buzzer-beater against OKC, or the one against Houston--like, "That’s a
bad shot."
You think I was improvising? You think I was panicking? You think I didn't know exactly what I was doing?
We
didn't grow up playing in a lab, bruh. We didn't grow up getting boxes
of shoes in the mail. We didn't grow up with a trainer and a video team.
That shot is 20 years old. I've been making it since 2001 on a milk
crate on Beverly Ave.
A 37-footer, it's not for everybody, I know.
But you know what? This story is not for everybody, either.
Here is my take on Lillard's logo shot to eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2019 playoffs:
Lillard averaged 33.0 ppg, 6.0 apg and 4.4 rpg in the first round, with
.461/.481/.846 shooting splits. He ended the series in dramatic fashion
with a game-winning shot from well beyond the three point line. There
has been a lot of discussion about whether or not that was a good shot
but this is simple: when a team gets the ball with more than 10 seconds
left in a tie game and ends up shooting the ball from nearly 40 feet,
that is not a good shot and it is certainly not an optimal shot, unless
one is saying that the coaching staff and players are so inept that they
cannot run a play to generate a high percentage shot in that time frame
against that particular team.
Much has been made about Lillard practicing that shot and having shot a
good percentage on a small sample size of those shots; does that mean if
a player practices half court shots and shoots a high percentage on a
small number of them then he should deliberately aim to shoot a half
court shot with a playoff game on the line? Get out of here. Lillard
demonstrated a lot of confidence and a lot a skill and he deserves
credit for his play throughout the series--more so than for just hitting
one shot--but by no means was that a good shot or an optimal shot in
that situation.
Here is my take on Lillard's logo shots in general,
written after his Trail Blazers lost 4-2 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2021 playoffs:
Despite all of the attention that is paid to numbers/"analytics" in
recent years, there is still a significant lack of understanding and
discernment regarding which numbers are meaningful and how to interpret
those numbers. To cite two examples, a lot of attention is paid to
overall shooting efficiency and last second shots. Shooting efficiency
matters, but it must be placed in context by understanding a player's
role and skill set. A player who is very efficient on a small number of
field goal attempts is not a franchise player, but a player whose
numbers may not look efficient may still be a franchise player if he has
the necessary skill set and mentality to control a game down the
stretch because controlling a game down the stretch matters more than hitting last second shots;
to some extent, last second shots are random events. Kobe Bryant's
game-winning shot versus the Phoenix Suns during game four of the 2006
NBA playoffs is an exciting and oft-replayed highlight, but Bryant's ability to control a game down the stretch--which
he displayed in many games in the NBA Finals and Conference Finals en
route to winning five NBA titles--is more impressive and meaningful.
Yes, you need the right skill set and mentality to make a buzzer beater,
but it is easier to hit one shot than it is to take over a game for an
extended period of time.
Lillard's "logo shots" are fun to watch,
and he deserves credit for honing his craft to the extent that he is
willing and able to make those shots--but Lillard is not consistently
able to take over playoff games down the stretch for extended periods of
time. Yes, if the game is close in the final seconds he can hit a "logo
shot" to save his team, but late in a playoff series he is more likely
to wear down than he is to take over. Lillard had a very productive
series versus Denver, but--as often
happens with smaller players--he wore down and he did not have much left
in the tank late in game six with the outcome still up for grabs: he
shot 1-9 from the field in the second half, including 1-5 in the fourth
quarter.
I respect Lillard's work ethic, his skill set, and his
mentality of trying to win in Portland as opposed to going somewhere
else to form a "super team." It is not disrespectful to Lillard to state
the truth: an undersized player is not going to lead a team to an NBA
title,
especially when that undersized player relies on long jumpers for a team
that
is subpar defensively and cannot survive high variance shooting. Even
if Lillard can make 40% of his "logo shots"--and he clearly cannot do
that late in a series when he is worn down--that would still mean that
60% of the possessions during which he shoots those shots are empty
possessions (not including a few offensive rebounds or defensive fouls).
A poor defensive team cannot survive that many empty possessions.
The reason that I am revisiting what I wrote several years ago about Lillard is that the analysis proved to be correct: Lillard has not come close to leading Portland back to the Western Conference Finals, and his ability to hit a few logo shots has not translated into consistent team success in either the regular season or the playoffs. In short, when Lillard, a "stat guru," or anyone else asserts that Lillard's logo shots are good shots they are wrong, at least in terms of those shots being good shots in the context of long term team success; obviously, a particular shot that wins a game produced a good short term result, but that does not mean the shot was optimal even in that instance, and it is evident that a steady diet of such shots is not optimal (or sustainable, as noted above).
Although I disagree with Lillard about his logo shots, I admire his loyalty. Loyalty is a very important character trait, and one that seems to be disappearing not only in the NBA but in society in general. Lillard mentioned that the city and team believed in him from the start, and therefore he will remain loyal to Portland until the end. That is a refreshing perspective that stands in marked contrast to the attitude displayed by players like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden who jump from team to team searching for greener pastures. Some people argue that because teams sometimes are not loyal the players should not be expected to be loyal, but Lillard understands that loyalty is not about how others treat you but how you treat others. As he wrote, "They might switch up on me. That's business." Lillard's character and his decisions are not swayed by what others have done or might do. So many people talk about "keeping it real," but there are few players in the NBA who keep it real to the extent that Lillard does. I still don't believe that he will lead Portland to a championship, but I respect his belief in himself, and I have even greater respect for his loyalty.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 8:06 PM
Remembering Willis Reed, the Heart and Soul of the New York Knicks
Willis Reed, the spiritual and physical leader of the great New York Knicks teams of the early 1970s, passed away earlier today. Here is the scouting report on Reed that I wrote in one of my articles about the NBA's 50 Greatest Players:
Willis Reed is the first player to win the All-Star Game MVP, regular
season MVP and Finals MVP in the same season (1970). Michael Jordan
(1996 and 1998) and Shaquille O'Neal (2000) are the only other players
who accomplished this feat. Reed also finished second in the 1969
regular season MVP voting and fourth in the 1971 regular season MVP
voting. His trophy case includes the 1973 Finals MVP and the 1965 Rookie
of the Year award. Reed made the All-NBA Team five times, including one
First Team selection (1970, the year he earned his only All-Defensive
Team selection, also to the First Team). His New York teams advanced to
the NBA Finals three times (1970, 1972-73) and won two titles (1970,
1973).
Reed never led the league in a major statistical category but he
averaged at least 11.6 rpg in each of his first seven seasons and his
career average of 12.9 rpg ranks 13th in ABA/NBA history. While Reed
could post up and he had a good hook shot, his New York Knicks often ran
an inverted offense featuring guards Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe
attacking the hoop while Reed and forwards Dave DeBusschere and Jerry
Lucas bombed away from outside. Reed did not display three point
range--which, of course, was not necessary or desirable at a time that
the NBA had not adopted the three point shot from the ABA--but he had a
reliable shot in the 15-18 foot range. Reed was an excellent defensive
player and he had great physical presence. He was not a great passer but
he contributed offensively not only as a scorer but also as a screen
setter.
While Reed put up impressive statistics during his prime, he is most
famous for a game during which he scored just four points: in game seven
of the 1970 NBA Finals versus the L.A. Lakers, a hobbled Reed limped on
to the court after missing game six due to a hip injury and he made his
first two shots from the field, providing inspiration as the Knicks
rolled to a 113-99 victory. Walt Frazier had 36 points, 19 assists and
seven rebounds in game seven but Reed received the Finals MVP after
averaging a team-high 23.0 ppg plus 10.5 rpg during the series (Reed
averaged 26.8 ppg during the first five games of the series before
suffering the injury).
Many current NBA players talk like they are tough and act like they are
tough. Reed proved that he was tough through his actions, not through
words or false bravado. He not only played through injury, but he never
backed down from any challenge; not that fighting should be glorified,
but during an era when real fighting--not the "hold me back" posturing
that we see so much today--was common in the NBA there may not have been
a more feared/respected player than Reed, perhaps best exemplified by a
1966 melee during which Reed took on multiple Lakers in succession "and
just decimated this team," as his teammate Phil Jackson later put it.
Reed made the All-Star team in each of his first seven seasons, but he fully hit his stride in 1969 after the Knicks traded Walt Bellamy and Howard Komives to the Detroit Pistons for Dave DeBusschere. The departure of Bellamy and addition of DeBusschere enabled Reed to shift from power forward to center while DeBusschere took over the power forward duties. In 1969, Reed earned the first of three straight top four finishes in regular season MVP voting as the Knicks went 54-28 before reaching the Eastern Division Finals for the first time since 1953.
That set the stage for the Knicks' storied 1970 season, when they were the top overall seed in the NBA playoffs with a 60-22 record before defeating the Baltimore Bullets (4-3), Milwaukee Bucks (4-1), and L.A. Lakers (4-3) to capture the franchise's first NBA title. So much has been written and said about how tough Reed was to come back from a painful hip injury to play in game seven of the NBA Finals that it is often forgotten how dominant he had been in the 1970 playoffs before he got hurt. Reed averaged 21.3 ppg and 17.7 rpg versus the Bullets, who featured Hall of Famers Wes Unseld and Gus Johnson in their frontcourt, plus Hall of Famer (and future Knick) Earl Monroe in the backcourt. Reed then averaged 27.8 ppg and 12.2 rpg versus the Bucks while battling Hall of Famer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (who also had an excellent series, averaging 34.2 ppg and 17.8 rpg); Reed may not have outplayed Abdul-Jabbar, but he was productive enough to balance out that matchup, which enabled the Knicks to exploit matchup advantages at other positions. Then, as noted above, Reed averaged a team-high 23.0 ppg in the NBA Finals versus Wilt Chamberlain despite scoring just four points in game seven while hobbling around with his hip injury.
The iconic call by Marv Albert--"Now
here comes Willis--and the crowd is going wild!"--combined with the
footage of Reed walking through the tunnel on to the court before game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals is one of the classic moments in NBA history. Reed's willingness to play through pain and to sacrifice his individual statistics to help his team win stand in marked contrast to the "load management" and veneration of individual statistics over team goals that characterize so many of today's most talented NBA players.
Reed
later said, "This was something we all wanted very badly. It was so
close you could touch it. It's one game. It was what I dreamed of as a
high school kid. It was what I worked so hard in college for. Not only
me, but everyone in that locker room. The coaches. Management. For me to
not go out there to try and be a part of that, to try and
give whatever I could--and I didn't know what it was--then I would be
letting them down and letting myself down. If I tried and failed that's
the way I wanted it. I didn't want to be a guy who didn't come out and
show he had the guts and grit to be there...That was the moment to
try."
In my chapter about the NBA in the 1970s in the anthology
Basketball in America, I mentioned that it
takes nothing away from what the Knicks accomplished in 1970 to point out that, contrary to the mythology that has developed regarding the 1970 NBA Finals, the Knicks were not plucky underdogs but rather a young team stacked with Hall of Famers facing an aging Lakers team whose three main cogs--Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Elgin Baylor--were all in their 30s: "It is true that by the conclusion of the 1970 playoffs West (3708
points, 30.9 points per game) Baylor (3623 points, 27.0 points per
game), and Chamberlain (2990 points, 25.8 points per game) were the
three leading scorers in NBA playoff history. That is impressive and
unprecedented, but it also reflects the fact that all three players were
past their primes. Baylor's chronically bad knees would soon force him
to retire and, as noted above, Chamberlain had not completely recovered
from his early season knee injury. West still had plenty of great games
left, but his body was also battered and bruised from so many years of
battling deep into the playoffs. The Knicks were hardly an underdog team
without a chance; there is a reason that they had homecourt advantage
for game seven. None of these facts diminish Reed's courage, Frazier's
clutch game seven performance and the overall greatness of the 1970 New
York Knicks. Quite the opposite: the 1970 Knicks should be remembered as
a great team, not as an underdog."
Reed was the undisputed leader of that great 1970 Knicks team.
In 1970-71, Reed had another excellent season, but the Knicks' bid to win back to back titles ended with a seven game loss to the Bullets in the Eastern Conference Finals. Reed battled injuries in his final three seasons, but he won the 1973 Finals MVP while leading a balanced attack that defeated the defending champion L.A. Lakers, 4-1. Reed played in just 19 regular season games in 1973-74 before retiring.
After his playing career ended, Reed had a brief stint as the Knicks' head coach (1977-1979). He was Creighton University's head coach from 1981-85, and then worked as an assistant coach with the Atlanta Hawks and Sacramento Kings before becoming the head coach of the New Jersey Nets from 1987-89. During his time as the Nets' general manager in the 1990s, the Nets drafted Derrick Coleman and Kenny Anderson while also signing Drazen Petrovic. Those three players helped the Nets become a playoff team before Petrovic's tragic death in a car accident. Reed was the New Orleans Hornets' Vice President of Basketball Operations from 2004-07.
Reed received many honors after he retired, including induction in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, selection as one of the NBA's 50 Greatest Players, and selection to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.
Labels: Marv Albert, New York Knicks, Walt Frazier, Willis Reed
posted by David Friedman @ 11:52 PM
It Would Have Been a Travesty if Antoine Davis Surpassed Pete Maravich's NCAA Career Scoring Record
Antoine Davis' college basketball career is officially over now that Detroit Mercy has decided not to pay a fee to play in a postseason tournament to extend their season and provide him with a chance to break Pete Maravich's NCAA career scoring record. The 6-1, 165 pound Davis deserves credit for being a consistent and productive player who averaged at least 23.9 ppg in each of his five (!) collegiate seasons, but he played 144 college games--he was one of many players granted an extra season of eligibility as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic--and it would have been a travesty if he had broken Maravich's mark despite never averaging 30 ppg in a season. Davis said that he feels "cheated" that Detroit Mercy did not participate in postseason play, but the Titans finished 14-19 this season and did not earn the right to play more games. Detroit posted sub-.500 records in each of Davis' five seasons, including 8-23 in 2020. Maravich's LSU teams were not powerhouses, but they never suffered a losing season, and in 1970 they finished second in the SEC behind Kentucky while posting a 22-10 record (including 13-5 in the SEC).
Davis was a very good college player, but Maravich was by far the most dominant scorer in college basketball history. Maravich scored 3667 points in 83 games (44.2 ppg) in three varsity seasons. When Maravich's college career ended in 1970, he had scored nearly 700 points more than the second highest scoring collegian of all-time, Oscar Robertson, who scored 2973 points in 88 games (33.8 ppg) in three varsity seasons for the University of Cincinnati. Maravich is one of just five players who led the NCAA and NBA in scoring, and his college career scoring average is a record that has stood longer than Babe Ruth's career home run record stood; Austin Carr ranks a distant second with a 34.6 ppg college career scoring average.
Maravich played in an era when varsity careers lasted three seasons, not four (and certainly not five), and he competed against the best players because it had not yet become vogue to leave school early to join the professional ranks; there is no question that Early Entry Players Have Diluted Both College and Pro Basketball. Maravich's era was also more physical than the modern era. The three point shot did not exist in college basketball until the 1980s, and a review of the documented distance of Maravich's college field goals made suggests that if the three point line had existed he would have averaged well over 50 ppg! That estimate does not even take into account the reality that if the three point shot rule had been in effect then the spacing would have been different and opposing teams would have been forced to defend Maravich more closely, opening up driving lanes and creating opportunities to draw fouls. It is conceivable that Maravich would have averaged 55 ppg or more in today's college game with the three point shot, watered down talent, and less physicality. Looking back at what Maravich accomplished in college and in his 10 year NBA career, it is not difficult to believe that he could have doubled Davis' college career scoring average of 25.4 ppg, because Maravich was a much more skilled (and bigger) player.
If Maravich's point total is ever surpassed by a player who played four (or more) seasons, then the NCAA should list two record holders: the three season record holder (Maravich) and the four (or more) season record holder. This is not a Roger Maris/Babe Ruth situation which involved a single season record with the regular season lasting slightly longer in Maris' time than in Ruth's; this is a completely changed college basketball landscape in which varsity players participate in dozens more games than Maravich did, with the opportunity to buy the opportunity to play even more games despite playing for a team with a losing record. It is worth noting that Maravich's 22-10 team did not even qualify for the NCAA Tournament during that more competitive era, because at that time only conference champions were invited to the NCAA Tournament.
Labels: Antoine Davis, Austin Carr, Detroit Mercy, LSU, Mike Davis, NCAA, Oscar Robertson, Pete Maravich
posted by David Friedman @ 10:09 PM
