Thunder Dominate Nuggets as Both Teams Misfire From Beyond the Arc
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets tied for the best record in the Western Conference last season (57-25) with the Thunder obtaining the number one seed based on the head to head tiebreaker--but in the season debut for both teams on Thursday night the Thunder dominated the Nuggets in a sloppy game during which the teams combined to shoot 15-75 (.200) from three point range. Both teams hardly lit up the scoreboard from inside the arc, either, with the Thunder shooting 43-101 (.426) overall (including 8-36 from three point range) and the Nuggets shooting 35-99 (.354) overall (including (7-39 from three point range). This is not the vaunted "pace and space" loved by "stat gurus"; this steady stream of airballs and bricks is the type of sloppy basketball decried by traditionalists who argue that NBA teams shoot too many three pointers at the cost of abandoning higher percentage shots closer to the hoop.
The Nuggets jumped out to a 19-10 lead by the 5:47 mark of the first quarter before being outscored 92-68 the rest of the way as the Thunder rolled to a 102-87 win. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 28 points on 11-24 field goal shooting while dishing for a team-high eight assists and snaring seven rebounds. Chet Holmgren dominated the paint with 25 points, a game-high 14 rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots; he is so skinny that he looks like a stiff wind might sweep him away, but he plays with energy, force, and speed to counteract the strength advantage that many big men have over him. Aaron Wiggins contributed 15 points off of the bench on 7-9 field goal shooting.
Each of Denver's five starters scored between 12 and 16 points, with Nikola Jokic and Christian Braun leading the way with 16 points each. Jokic shot 6-13 from the field while logging a game-high 13 assists, and a team-high 12 rebounds. The Nuggets need more than 12 points on 4-14 shooting from Jamal Murray. The Thunder's bench outscored the Nuggets' bench, 25-16. Even without the injured Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams, the Thunder have a deep roster.
Both teams can shoot and play a lot better than they did in this game.
It has become fashionable to write off the Nuggets as lacking the
necessary depth to compete in the Western Conference, and this game will
only add fuel to that criticism, but one should be cautious about making sweeping conclusions one game into an 82 game season.
The Nuggets signed former MVP and future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook to anchor their bench. Westbrook had six points, five rebounds, five assists, and two blocked shots in his Denver debut, but he shot just 2-10 from the field and had a game-worst -24 plus/minus number. Westbrook played his usual high energy style, but six of his 10 field goal attempts were from three point range, and that is not optimal for him or the team; Westbrook is at his best when he attacks the hoop to create high percentage scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, something that he did several times during this game in between the missed three pointers. I believe that Westbrook will provide a spark for the Nuggets' off of the bench, and that by the end of the season his signing will be considered one of the league's best offseason moves. He will fit in perfectly with the Nuggets, a team that takes a professional approach and is focused on winning/teamwork above everything else.
Labels: Chet Holmgren, Denver Nuggets, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 2:38 AM
Mavericks Overcome Sluggish Start to Defeat Spurs, 120-109
The Dallas Mavericks fell behind 6-0 and still trailed 49-47 at halftime before outscoring the San Antonio Spurs 40-31 in the third quarter to cruise to a 120-109 season-opening win. The Spurs outshot the Mavericks from the field .453 to .412 and they outrebounded the Mavericks 52-50, but the Spurs committed 19 turnovers and they gave up 19 three point field goals.
Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, and passed for a game-high tying eight assists, but he shot just 9-25 from the field and looked a bit rusty after missing the preseason due to injury. Klay Thompson scored 22 points in his regular season debut for Dallas, shooting 6-10 from three point range while also accumulating seven rebounds and three steals. Thompson's reliable elite three point shooting is just what the Mavericks need to complement Doncic's all-around brilliance. Kyrie Irving added 15 points on 6-17 field goal shooting, and Dereck Lively II provided 15 points, a game-high 11 rebounds, and six assists off of the bench.
Julian Champagnie and Jeremy Sochan led the Spurs with 18 points each, while Harrison Barnes chipped in 17 points. Big things are expected out of Victor Wembanyama after he won the 2024 Rookie of the Year award, but in this game he shot just 5-18 from the field to score an inefficient 17 points. Wembanyama did not have a great floor game, either, finishing with nine
rebounds, one assist, one blocked shot, and four turnovers. A player with his size and skills should be able to score efficiently on a consistent basis, but his shot selection and shooting touch are both very much works in progress. Last season, Wembanyama shot .400 or worse from the field in 23 games.
Even though Doncic and Irving did not score as efficiently as they usually do, the Mavericks won easily after their sluggish start, and the Mavericks look like they are picking up where they left off after their playoff run to the 2024 NBA Finals.
In contrast, the Spurs do not have much to show for their years of tanking to obtain Wembanyama's draft rights: Wembanyama is talented but raw and he has yet to demonstrate that he can have an impact in the win column; the Spurs went 22-60 the year before they drafted Wembanyama, and they went 22-60 in Wembanyama's rookie season. They acquired veteran point guard Chris Paul in the offseason to provide leadership and get the ball to Wembanyama in prime scoring position, but Paul is 39 years old and will be out of the league before Wembanyama reaches his peak. Tonight, Paul had three points on 1-6 field goal shooting, a game-high tying eight assists, and seven rebounds. Paul (-21) and Wembanyama (-20) had the two worst plus/minus numbers in the game. Almost a year to the day after the Mavericks spoiled Wembanyama's debut game, the Spurs still look like a team that is closer to returning to the NBA Draft Lottery than qualifying for the playoffs.
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving, Luka Donic, San Antonio Spurs, Victor Wembanyama
posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 PM
Suns Spoil Clippers' Home Opener in New Arena
The Phoenix Suns built a 14 point first half lead, fell behind by 10 points with just 6:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then rallied to beat the L.A. Clippers 116-113 in overtime, spoiling the Clippers' home opener in Steve Ballmer's new arena. Kevin Durant led Phoenix with 25 points while also posting a team-high seven turnovers. Bradley Beal scored 24 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, and poured in seven of the Suns' 13 overtime points. Devin Booker had a quiet game (15 points, six assists) by his lofty standards. Tyus Jones did an excellent job in his debut as the team's starting point guard, finishing with 11 points, a game-high tying eight assists, and no turnovers. The Suns squandered many late leads last season due to poor execution down the stretch, so slotting Jones in as the starting point guard is meant to solve that problem, and if this game is any indication then that plan will work out well.
This game was a microcosm of James Harden's career: he filled up the boxscore with empty calories, and he disappeared when it mattered the most. Harden's game-high 29 points, game-high 12 rebounds, and game-high tying eight assists will make every "stat guru" drool, but it is worth noting not only that Harden had a -4 plus/minus number but also when and how he accumulated his numbers, because the great Bill Russell used to emphasize during his time as a CBS commentator the importance of when a player puts up his numbers. Harden was a no-show in the first half with four points on 2-11 field goal shooting as the Suns built a 47-39 halftime lead, forcing the Clippers to expend energy playing from behind. Then, he erupted for 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in the third quarter as the Clippers outscored the Suns 35-25 to take a 74-72 lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden had eight points on 3-7 field goal shooting with a team-worst -7 plus/minus number.
The Clippers led 99-90 with 3:52 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then Harden did his thing: he missed a 30 foot three pointer, he missed a floater, he turned the ball over, he missed a layup, and he fouled Durant on a three point play that gave the Suns the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. Harden then tied the game with a stepback jumper and gave the Clippers a brief lead by hitting a pair of free throws before Durant's fadeaway knotted the score at 103 with 21.2 seconds remaining. Harden missed a floater that could have won the game, and in overtime he did not score a point or deliver an assist. Harden once said that he is not a system player but he is "The system" and that is true if he means that he is "The system" for falling behind early, squandering late leads, disappearing in overtime, and putting up "concert tour" field goal percentages in playoff games.
Unfortunately for the Clippers, their hopes will ride or die with Harden, because two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with a knee injury. It is becoming increasingly evident that the issue with Leonard is not so much that he is intentionally engaging in load management but that rather he just cannot stay healthy.
In contrast, the Suns have a much sounder foundation, as they are relying on two-time NBA champion/NBA Finals MVP Durant, supported by Booker and Beal, who are excellent as the second and third options respectively. The Suns replaced Frank Vogel, who is an excellent coach, with Mike Budenholzer, who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title.
Labels: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Tyus Jones
posted by David Friedman @ 11:14 AM
Antetokounmpo and Lillard Shine as Bucks Defeat Injury-Riddled 76ers
Damian Lillard scored a game-high 30 points and Giannis Antetokounmpo added 25 points as the Milwaukee Bucks ruined the Philadelphia 76ers' home opener, 124-109. Lillard also had nine rebounds and six assists, while Antetokounmpo led both teams in rebounding (14) and assists (seven). The Bucks shot 43-80 (.538) from the field while holding the 76ers to 41-98 (.418) field goal shooting. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 25 points, but he shot just 10-31 from the field. Kelly Oubre Jr. added 21 points, while Andre Drummond had 10 points and a team-high 13 rebounds. Drummond, a four-time NBA rebounding champion (2016, 2018-20), ranks first among active players (and 14th all-time) with a 12.4 rpg career average, and he started in place of the perpetually injured Joel Embiid.
This game was much more about who did not play then how effectively either team played. Embiid is expected to miss at least the next two games, and he publicly stated that he may sit out at least one game in each back to back scenario for the rest of his career. Prior to last season, the NBA instituted a Player Participation Policy stipulating harsher penalties for load management and it has been reported that the league office is investigating how the 76ers are handling Embiid's situation. Some NBA players--including Embiid--have complained about the Player Participation Policy, to which I say that the
NBA should only scrap the Player Participation Policy if the players
agree to give up guaranteed contracts and instead be paid only when they
show up for work, which is the reality for most jobs.
During TNT's pregame show on NBA Opening Night, Shaquille O'Neal said of Embiid, "In order to win a championship you have to give yourself to the game." Embiid missed every game in the first two seasons of his NBA career, he has never played more than 68 games in a season, and he has played 66 games or less in seven of the last eight seasons. Wrapping Embiid in amber to preserve him for the playoffs not only cheats the fans who purchase tickets to see him to play in regular season games but it prevents the 76ers from developing the chemistry and continuity that is required to win a championship.
Paul George, the 76ers' biggest offseason acquisition, missed this game
due to a bone bruise in his left knee that he suffered during the
preseason. He will be reevaluated later this week. George is not as injury-prone as Embiid, but he played 56 games or less in each of the four seasons prior to last season, when he played in 74 games after the NBA enacted the Player Participation Policy.
Khris Middleton did not play for Milwaukee as he recovers from offseason
procedures on both of his ankles. He was durable during the first
portion of his career through 2021 when he helped the Bucks win the NBA title, but in the past three years he has been dogged by injuries.
The Bucks and 76ers both lost in the first round of the playoffs last season. Embiid has never led the 76ers past the second round of the playoffs, while the Bucks have not advanced past the second round since their 2021 championship season. Both teams talk about winning the 2025 NBA title, but talk is cheap and it remains to be seen if these teams will do what is necessary to win a championship; for the 76ers, that means taking the regular season seriously, and for the Bucks that means committing to playing elite defense, which has been a problem ever since the Bucks fired Coach Mike Budenholzer and swapped defensive stalwart Jrue Holiday for defensive sieve Damian Lillard.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Milwaukee Bucks, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 9:04 AM
LeBron and Bronny Make History, but Davis Dominates as Lakers Tame Timberwolves
It is not often that a second round draft pick who played three minutes in his NBA debut gets headline treatment--but when that second round draft pick is the son of the NBA's all-time leading scorer, and that duo becomes the first father and son to share playing time on an NBA court then headline treatment is inevitable. The L.A. Lakers defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 110-103 in the second game of TNT's 2024 NBA Opening Night doubleheader, but what will be remembered most about this game is that Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James. Bronny did not score a point, shooting 0-2 from the field with a -5 plus/minus number in just under three minutes of action; his best chance to score came on a drive and kick pass from his father, but Bronny missed an open three pointer.
Bronny was the story of the night, but Anthony Davis was the star of the game with game-high totals in points (36), rebounds (16), and blocked shots (three). Davis' activity level was so high that sometimes it seemed like he was in two places at once. When Davis is healthy and dominant, the Lakers look like a different team. He was the main reason that the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves in the paint, 72-40. For the past several years, we have been subjected to various narratives about the Lakers, including the team supposedly needing "lasers" (outside shooters), Russell Westbrook being demonized and turned into a scapegoat even though intelligent analysts like Hubie Brown praised Westbook, and media members bending over backwards to spin the facts about the team's flaws to preserve access to LeBron James--but we rarely hear the truth told about this team: the Lakers are at their best when Davis and James attack the paint at both ends of the court; that was the recipe for success when the Lakers won the 2020 "bubble title."
The Lakers shot 5-30 (.167) from three point range and James had a quiet game by his lofty standards (16 points, five rebounds, four assists), but the Lakers' paint dominance spearheaded by Davis was the difference. Anthony Edwards led Minnesota with 27 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field as the Timberwolves shot 35-85 (.412) from the field overall. Julius Randle, who was acquired from the New York Knicks in exchange for Karl-Anthony Towns, finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. The Timberwolves used their size to push teams around last season, but in this game the Lakers pushed them around.
New Lakers Coach J.J. Redick is a "stat guru" at heart, so one of his mantras is that he wants the Lakers to shoot more three pointers than they did last season. If the Lakers follow that prescription then they will not improve their record, but if they play with force in the paint the way that they did versus the Timberwolves then they will be better than than they have been in recent seasons.
TNT's postgame on court interview is usually conducted with the star of
the game, but instead of Davis receiving the honor and the attention the
spotlight shined on LeBron and Bronny, who comes across as a thoughtful
and grounded young man. LeBron James grew up without his biological father, so James' commitment to being a family man is commendable. As a father, I understand how meaningful it must be to him to play in an NBA game alongside his son, and from a human interest standpoint this is a wonderful moment, with the emotional impact heightened by the fact that Bronny has recovered from suffering cardiac arrest on July 24, 2023.
However, from the standpoint of the NBA putting the best possible product on the floor and from the standpoint of the Lakers posing as a team that aspires to win a championship, Bronny's presence on an NBA roster--let alone his appearance in an NBA game--is problematic. Bronny averaged 4.8 ppg on .366 field goal shooting in his only college season; no player with that statistical profile is going to be drafted by an NBA team--unless his father is LeBron James. TNT's Kenny Smith kept emphasizing that Bronny James was a McDonald's
All-American in high school, stating that this demonstrates that Bronny
earned being a second round draft pick--but being a McDonald's All-American in high school does not always translate into college success, let alone NBA success. It is ridiculous to suggest that any team other than James' Lakers would have drafted Bronny (unless a team thought that drafting Bronny could influence James to leave the Lakers to sign with them).
By not only giving Bronny a roster spot that he did not earn but putting him on the court in a regular season game, the Lakers are demonstrating that they are not serious about winning; they don't have the best 15 player roster that they could have assembled, nor do they have the best 8-10 player rotation that they could have assembled. If the plan is to give Bronny three minutes now and then have him spend the rest of the season in the NBA G League, then essentially this was nothing more than a publicity stunt, and if the plan is to keep giving Bronny a few minutes here and there even though he has not earned those minutes then the other players on the Lakers' roster--and better players than Bronny who are not even in the league--will inevitably become resentful. Bronny is set for life financially regardless of how his playing career goes, but for most NBA prospects the opportunity to earn an NBA roster spot is potentially life-changing. The LeBron-Bronny father-son moment came at the expense of a player whose hard work should have earned him an NBA roster spot. I have heard the argument that nepotism happens in all fields so this is not a big deal, but that is the first time that I have heard the notion that because nepotism is widespread that makes it OK.
Opening Night was a happy story on the surface--the Lakers won, and LeBron James orchestrated the father-son moment that he has talked about for years--but the Lakers' season is unlikely to have a storybook ending. James has taken over the franchise to the extent that the Lakers feel compelled to make decisions that will please James even at the expense of on court success: they hired James' buddy Redick even though Redick has no meaningful coaching experience, and then they gave playing time to a player who is not NBA-caliber at this time. These unprofessional decisions will likely lead to consequences down the line.
Again, as a father I understand why LeBron made this happen--and I wish Bronny all the best in his career and life--but it is naive at best to expect this to end well.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Bronny James, J.J. Redick, Julius Randle, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Minnesota Timberwolves
posted by David Friedman @ 3:19 AM
Celtics Sans Porzingis Dominate New Look Knicks on NBA Opening Night
NBA Opening Night 2024 began with the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics distributing their championship rings, raising their record 18th NBA championship banner, and dominating the New York Knicks. Many Celtics champions and legends showed up in person to participate in the festivities, including Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, and Paul Pierce from Boston's 2008 championship team--but for me the poignant highlight was seeing 96 year old Bob Cousy rolled onto the court in a wheelchair: known as the "Houdini of the Hardwood" because of his magical ballhandling and passing, Cousy starred for six Celtics championship teams, including the franchise's first in 1957 when he averaged 20.7 ppg, 9.1 apg, and 6.7 rpg in the NBA Finals. Cousy deserves a lot better in his golden years than hearing nonsense about the quality of opposition that he faced, but two years ago he showed that his mind and tongue are still quite sharp when he offered his rebuttal to his ignorant critics. It must have meant so much to Cousy to be able to attend the ring ceremony and to be invited by the Celtics to do so.
In my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview, I picked Boston and New York as the top two teams in the East. Even without the services of starting center Kristaps Porzingis, the Celtics picked up right where they left off in the 2024 NBA Finals, overwhelming the Knicks from midway through the first quarter through the final buzzer to post a 132-109 rout. Porzingis, who averaged 20.1 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 1.9 bpg in 57 games last season with the Celtics, will miss at least the first month of this season because of the lower left leg injury that he suffered during game five of the 2024 NBA Finals; the Celtics will be even more of a matchup nightmare after he returns to action.
Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 37 points on blistering 14-18 field goal shooting while also logging a game-high 10 assists, snaring four rebounds, and committing just one turnover en route to posting a game-high +26 plus/minus number. Tatum shot 8-11 from three point range. Derrick White added 24 points, and Jaylen Brown tallied 23 points. That Celtics trio was in the news last summer when Team USA chose White over Brown to replace the injured Kawhi Leonard while also relegating Tatum to being a seldom-used reserve. Team USA won Olympic gold, but Brown's absence and Tatum's minimal role baffled many observers. Tatum and Brown would no doubt have been highly motivated to chase a repeat NBA championship anyway, but the Team USA controversies added further fuel to the fire for two players who have often felt--with some justification--underrated and unappreciated.
Jalen Brunson and Miles McBride each scored a team-high 22 points and new addition Mikal Bridges added 16 points, but the Knicks' main off-season acquisition--Karl-Anthony Towns--contributed just 12 points and seven rebounds. The Knicks shot .551 from the field overall but just 11-30 (.367) from three point range, and their inability to even slow down the Celtics' high-powered offense was the difference: the Celtics tied the NBA's regular season single game record by making 29 three pointers, shooting .604 (29-48) from beyond the arc before missing their last 13 treys as they chased sole ownership of the record. They also matched a franchise record by drilling 17 three pointers in the first half.
The importance of the fourth quarter and "crunch time" is often emphasized, but the reality is that the NBA is in many ways a first quarter league: the matchups and tendencies that one sees in the first 12 minutes often provide a reliable preview of what will happen the rest of the way. The Knicks twice enjoyed a one point lead in the first two minutes of the first quarter before trailing for the final 46:07. The Celtics had their first double digit lead after Tatum hit a three pointer at the 3:57 mark of the first quarter to put them up 27-17, and they led by at least 10 points the rest of the way. The Celtics led 43-24 by the end of the first quarter after shooting 10-17 (.588) from three point range while the Knicks shot just 1-7 (.143) from beyond the arc.
Anyone can look at the numbers and see that three point shooting was a big factor in the outcome of this game, but in terms of evaluating these teams overall it is important to understand in detail what happened and why it happened, as opposed to just looking at the boxscore.
Tatum and Brown both used to be criticized for going one on one too often as opposed to working within the framework of the offense. They refuted that notion by the unselfish way that they played during Boston's 64-18 regular season in 2023-24 followed by a dominant 16-3 playoff run, and against the Knicks they again found the right balance of isolation play versus ball movement. Tatum and Brown both aggressively attacked favorable matchups, and they both moved the ball to the open man when the situation called for that.
The Celtics used on ball screens and off ball screens to great effect, and their laser sharp cuts led to both open shots in the paint and open shots on the perimeter. Their .505 field goal percentage and .475 three point field goal percentage are not sustainable over the course of an 82 game season, but if they continue to execute their offense with that degree of precision combined with unselfishness--willingly passing up good shots to get great shots--then they will be very difficult to defend. I am not a fan of randomly jacking up long range shots or arbitrarily deciding to attempt at least 50 three pointers per game regardless of time/score/matchups, but I am a fan of ball movement and of spreading out the defense before attacking the defense's holes, which is what the Celtics did to near perfection versus the Knicks.
All of that being said, the Knicks pride themselves on their tough, physical defense and they have to be very disappointed with both their effort and execution at that end of the court. Defense is about game plan discipline and about making multiple efforts on the same play, but the Knicks repeatedly conceded wide open shots all over the court. Their on ball pressure was soft at best, their screen/roll defense was terrible, and the Celtics had so many open shots that it looked like they were on a perpetual power play. It is too easy--and too soon--to say that the Knicks' offseason moves fatally weakened their defense, but the onus is on the Knicks to get their act together on that end of the court. Better effort and execution may not have been enough to beat the hot-shooting Celtics on this night, but the presumed second best team in the East should not trail by as many as 35 points or lose by 23 points.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM
