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Saturday, October 10, 2020

Butler and James Play Masterfully as Heat Outlast Lakers, 111-108

Game five of the 2020 NBA Finals will long be remembered, whether as the start of Miami's comeback from a 3-1 deficit, or one of the challenges L.A. overcame en route to the championship. The Heat and Lakers engaged in an epic duel that was not decided until the final seconds, with the Heat prevailing 111-108 to extend their season for at least one more game. 

Jimmy Butler once again led the Heat in scoring (35 points), rebounds (12) and assists (11), amassing his second 30 point triple double of the Finals. He is just the sixth player to have more than one triple double in the same Finals, joining Magic Johnson (who had at least two triple doubles in three different Finals), LeBron James (who also had at least two triple doubles in three different Finals), Wilt Chamberlain, Larry Bird, and Draymond Green. Butler shot 11-19 from the field and 12-12 from the free throw line, including the two free throws that put Miami up for good, 109-108, with 16.8 seconds remaining. 

Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra shortened his rotation to just seven players, taking reserve big man Kelly Olynyk out of the lineup. Goran Dragic did not play due to injury, and All-Star center Bam Adebayo had a subpar game (13 points, four rebounds, four assists, 5-12 field goal shooting), perhaps due to lingering effects from his neck injury; Adebayo repeatedly fumbled the ball, he seemed tentative, and he even missed a two-handed dunk. Duncan Robinson provided clutch scoring/shooting, finishing with 26 points on 8-15 field goal shooting (including 7-13 from three point range). Robinson is by no means a defensive stopper, but he held his own at that end of the court and even drew a charge against LeBron James that led to the Lakers using (and losing) their only challenge--and a timeout that could have potentially been quite valuable in the final seconds of the game, as Tim Legler mentioned during his SportsCenter segment. Every Heat player who played scored in double figures except for Andre Iguodala, who did not make a shot in 20 minutes but did grab six rebounds.

LeBron James had one of his best Finals games ever, which is saying something considering his extensive Finals resume: 40 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists, 15-21 field goal shooting (including 6-9 from long distance). He played almost flawlessly: he attacked the paint to score from start to finish, he passed only when his driving lanes were cut off, and he converted at a tremendous clip from three point range when he was left open in transition or on switches. He and Butler both played at the highest possible level.

Anthony Davis was hobbled with less than a minute to go in the first quarter when he reinjured his right heel, and he limped noticeably at various times the rest of the way, but he still contributed 28 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, three blocked shots, and three steals while shooting 9-15 from the field. Nine Lakers played but only one other Laker scored in double figures: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who had 16 points. 

The game had a back and forth flow from the start, and that remained true until the end, even though the Heat briefly built double digit leads a few times. One key sequence that may be overlooked happened during the third quarter. Dwight Howard committed a flagrant foul against Butler as Butler completed a putback. Butler drained the free throw, snared an offensive rebound on the ensuing possession, and promptly dished to Robinson for a three pointer. That rare six point play put the Heat up 76-70 in a game when every point proved to be very significant. The Heat never trailed from the first quarter until Caldwell-Pope's three pointer at the 6:18 mark of the fourth quarter put the Lakers up 97-96. That shot capped off a run that erased Miami's last double digit lead of the night. A lesser team than Miami might have collapsed at that point, but the Heat kept battling on every possession, even though Butler seemed to be drawing his last breath while standing on his last legs. 

ABC's Mark Jackson compared the fourth quarter to the final round of the classic third Ali-Frazier fight; that was hyperbole, but not by much. Butler scored eight points on 2-6 field goal shooting in the final stanza while also passing for one assist and grabbing three rebounds; James scored 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while also crashing the boards for seven rebounds and passing for two assists. You could see Butler wearing down, but he perked up when the Heat needed him the most. Butler's jumper put the Heat up 103-101, but James immediately countered with a three point play to give the Lakers a 104-103 lead. Butler answered with a turnaround jumper to make the score 105-104, Heat. James' putback gave the Lakers a 106-105 edge but then Butler drove, drew a foul, and drained two free throws for a 107-106 Heat lead. Davis' putback made the score 108-107 Lakers but Butler drew another foul and again made both free throws to give the Heat the lead for good, 109-108. The Heat made a final defensive stand, and then Tyler Herro sealed the win with two free throws. During that crucial defensive stand, the Heat played the "anyone beat us but LeBron defense." After the Heat prevented James from driving, he dished to Danny Green, who missed a wide open three pointer from the top of the key with 7.1 seconds left. That shot could have clinched the title for the Lakers, and earned Green a place in Lakers' history alongside such non-star clutch championship shot makers as Robert Horry and Derek Fisher.

In a normal season, this game would have been played in L.A., with game six in Miami and game seven (if necessary) in L.A.--but now all of the games are played in the Orlando "bubble," meaning that home court advantage does not exist. Denver twice came back from 3-1 deficits during the "bubble" playoffs, and the Lakers were the only first or second seeded team from either conference to advance to the Conference Finals. Miami has proven to be a team that plays hard every night and will not quit. There is every reason to believe that game six will not be decided until the final minutes, if not the final seconds--and thus there is a decent chance that this series will go the distance. Anthony Davis' health could turn out to be critical; the Heat have survived with a hobbled Adebayo and without Goran Dragic but the Lakers may not be able to get one more win if Davis is not 100%.

The Lakers wore their Kobe Bryant/Black Mamba uniforms during game five, and this is the first time they lost while wearing the tribute gear. Kobe Bryant's spirit is never far from the thoughts of basketball fans this season, and this is particularly true for Lakers' fans, so it is fitting to recall the words of Tex Winter that Bryant often quoted: "Everything turns on a trifle." If Green made that three pointer--or if any one of a dozen plays turned out differently--then James would be a four-time champion and likely a four-time Finals MVP. Instead, by Tuesday night we may be talking about how James' heavily favored Lakers blew a 3-1 lead and how James was outplayed by Finals MVP Butler. James' greatness will not increase or decrease in the next few days, but how he is perceived will be significantly affected by how this series concludes. To some extent that is fair--James is the best player, and he has the opportunity to have a big impact on the result--but to some extent that is not fair, because James could play at a high level (as he did in game five) only to still fall short.

It is one thing to realize that we are watching what will later be viewed as a historic series, but it is another thing to try to shape the narrative before we even know how the story ends; it makes more sense to just enjoy what we are watching: LeBron James is still a magnificent player after all these years, and Jimmy Butler is showing the world what he can do when playing for an organization that has a competitive mindset and fire like he does. Anthony Davis is a marvelously skilled big man. The Heat's roster is full of scrappy players, ranging from a veteran who is a former Finals MVP (Andre Iguodala) to young guys on the rise (Adebayo, Robinson, Herro). The Lakers also feature a mixture of past stars (Dwight Howard, Rajon Rondo) and promising young players (Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso).

People can make bold proclamations or predictions, but the reality is that we do not know what will happen next--and that unscripted drama is the NBA at its best. 

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:55 AM

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Wednesday, October 07, 2020

LeBron Dominates in Second Half as Lakers Take 3-1 Lead

When LeBron James is focused and attacks the hoop, he is still the best player in the NBA. He showed that again in the second half of game four of the NBA Finals, powering the L.A. Lakers to a 102-96 victory over the Miami Heat and a 3-1 series lead. James had 20 points and nine rebounds in the second half, including 11 points and five rebounds in the fourth quarter. With James setting the tone, the Lakers pounded the smaller Heat in the fourth quarter, shooting 5-6 on two pointers and 11-12 on free throws. James led both teams in scoring (28 points) and rebounds (12) while shooting 8-16 from the field and dishing for a team-high eight assists. James had a -2 plus/minus number, but this game is an example of why plus/minus can be deceptive in a small sample size; James was without question the best player on the court when it mattered most, and he took over as the Lakers built a 100-91 lead after a Jimmy Butler drive tied the score at 83.

James had five turnovers in the first half, but just one turnover in the second half. James was out of sync during the first half. Anyone could see it, and ABC's Jeff Van Gundy mentioned it during the telecast. If James had not lifted his game, this series would likely be 2-2 now--but James played up to his potential, and the Lakers are one win away from capturing the NBA title. 

Anthony Davis also had a subpar first half by his standards (eight points, though he did have six rebounds and three assists) but he scored 14 second half points, including the three pointer that put the Lakers up 100-91 with :39.5 remaining, a shot that most likely not only clinched this game but the series as well; only one team has won the NBA Finals after trailing 3-1, and that team featured James (the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, who defeated the Golden State Warriors). Davis finished with 22 points, nine rebounds, four assists, and four blocked shots. He shot 8-16 from the field, and had a game-high +17 plus/minus number. 

The Lakers received key contributions from their role players. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope paced the Lakers in scoring during the first half (10 points) as they led 49-47 at halftime. He ended up with 15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, plus five assists. He hit a three pointer and a driving layup on consecutive fourth quarter possessions to push the Lakers' lead to 95-88. Danny Green added 10 points on 4-8 field goal shooting. Rajon Rondo only scored two points on 1-7 field goal shooting but he was third on the team in rebounds (seven) and tied with Caldwell-Pope for second in assists (five). 

Jimmy Butler played well, but the Heat needed for him to be great. Butler led the Heat in scoring (22 points), rebounds (10), and assists (nine), but he has an odd tendency to turn down open shots in the paint and pass to his teammates. Unselfishness is fine to a point, but sometimes the best player has an obligation to force the action, which can not only lead to scores but also induce the defense to "tilt" in a way that creates easier shots for that player's teammates.  

The Heat received a lift from the return of injured starting center Bam Adebayo. He scored 15 points and had seven rebounds. Adebayo played with high energy and posted a +3 plus/minus number but he did not have the overall impact that he did during the Eastern Conference Finals. Early in the game, the Heat played very actively, forcing turnovers and making it hard for the Lakers to feed the ball to Davis in the post.

Tyler Herro (21 points) and Duncan Robinson (17 points) were the Heat's only other double figure scorers, but they probably gave up at least as many points on defense as they scored on offense; the Lakers were openly "hunting" to create switches involving either guard down the stretch. Even though the injured Goran Dragic was the Heat's leading playoff scorer heading into this series, the team may miss his defense even more than his offense. 

Neither team led by more than seven points until Davis hit the clinching three pointer, but once James decided to attack the hoop it was a wrap. James scored on a drive, was fouled, and made the free throw to put the Lakers up 86-83 with 6:08 remaining in the fourth quarter. James scored the Lakers' next four points on free throws, and when the defense crowded him on a drive he dished to Caldwell-Pope for a right corner three pointer at the 2:58 mark that extended the Lakers' lead to 93-88. The Lakers' half court set that involves James wandering around aimlessly without the ball behind the three point line is puzzling to watch, but when James drives to score (and passes only if a second defender blocks his path) he becomes almost impossible to stop.

Is James held to an unreasonably high standard, or is it appropriate to expect him to drive to the hoop more often because he is an unstoppable force in the paint? I think that all players should maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Driving to the hoop requires physical, mental, and emotional stamina, but there is no shortcut to achieving and sustaining greatness. Every jump shot that James shoots--particularly jump shots from further than 15-18 feet--is a victory for the defense, even if James connects; every James drive bends, distorts, and ultimately destroys the defense.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 AM

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Monday, October 05, 2020

Butler Did It: Heat Cool Off Lakers, 115-104

"You're in trouble." That seems like an odd thing to say when you are trailing 2-1 in the NBA Finals, but Jimmy Butler can say whatever he wants after scoring 40 points, grabbing 11 rebounds, passing for 13 assists, swiping two steals, blocking two shots and outdueling LeBron James at both ends of the court to lead the Miami Heat to a 115-104 victory over the L.A. Lakers in game three. Butler shot 14-20 from the field, and had a +20 plus/minus number while playing 45 minutes. It should be noted that Butler clarified after the game that his choice words were not idle trash talk, but rather a response to those same words being spoken to him by James during the first quarter.

Butler led both teams in scoring, rebounding, and assists, and no player exceeded his numbers for steals or blocked shots. It is not an exaggeration to call this one of the most dominant all-around single-game performances in NBA Finals history; players such as Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, Moses Malone, and Shaquille O'Neal had games in which they were more dominant in terms of scoring and/or rebounding, but few players have been as dominant across the board.

The Heat were once again without the services of injured All-Star center Bam Adebayo and injured former All-Star guard Goran Dragic, but the Heat made no excuses and looked like a team trying to win a championship, not a team just trying to avoid being swept. 

Tyler Herro struggled with his shot (6-18 field goal shooting) but he finished with 17 points, and Kelly Olynyk contributed 17 points plus seven rebounds in 31 minutes off of the bench as the de facto replacement for Adebayo--Meyers Leonard started at center for the second game in a row, but once again he played minimal minutes (13 in game three, nine in game two). Duncan Robinson (13 points) and Jae Crowder (12 points) also scored in double figures, but Butler was the story: he scored or assisted on 73 points, tied with two Jerry West performances for the second highest such single game total ever in the NBA Finals, trailing only Walt Frazier's 74 points (36 points scored plus 19 assists for another 38 points) in his legendary performance in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals. Of course Butler--and every other post-1979 player--has the advantage of being able to assist on three point shots, an option not available to West, Frazier, and other great players from the NBA's pre-three point shot era.

LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (25 points), rebounds (10), assists (eight), and turnovers (eight). He shot 9-16 from the field. Other than the turnovers, his stat line looks great--but the turnovers matter, and most of them were, in tennis parlance, unforced errors. With rare exceptions, James always has great stat lines, and that is a tribute to his greatness and consistency--but it also shows how misleading individual stat lines can be. His career Finals statistics are incredible, and yet he is not only just 3-6 in the Finals but a host of players have been the best player on the court during various Finals games in which James appeared, including Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Kawhi Leonard. Add Jimmy Butler to that list. James has won three Finals MVPs, but he has also watched Parker, Nowitzki, Leonard, Andre Iguodala, and Durant (twice) win Finals MVPs at his expense. 

Anthony Davis had a forgettable game: 15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, five rebounds, three assists, two steals, five turnovers, and a -26 plus/minus number. Davis picked up three first half fouls, and at halftime he had just five points and one rebound along with five turnovers. He played better in the second half, but not nearly well enough for a player with his skill set who enjoys a significant matchup advantage against the Heat sans Adebayo.

Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma each scored 19 points on 6-13 field goal shooting. Rajon Rondo's individual stat line was underwhelming (four points on 2-8 field goal shooting, eight rebounds, five assists), but his +6 plus/minus number reflects how well the Lakers performed during his 28 minutes. The Lakers' bench did their jobs, and no bench player had a negative plus/minus rating. 

The Heat's starters dominated the Lakers' starters, outscoring them 89-51. James lost his individual matchup versus Butler, and Davis barely outscored Duncan Robinson while being outscored by rookie Tyler Herro. If the Lakers win this series in five, six or even seven games, game three will be forgiven if not totally forgotten--but if this performance is the turning point in the series then that does not reflect well on James or Davis.

While media members spent the pregame show preparing James' coronation and talking about where he should be placed on basketball's proverbial Mt. Rushmore, the Heat demonstrated that they will not submit meekly. The Heat jumped out to a 16-8 lead as the Lakers committed five early turnovers. The Lakers trimmed the deficit to three, 26-23, by the end of the first stanza. The Heat hit seven of their first eight field goal attempts, but then made just four of their next 20 shots, and the Lakers took the lead, 32-30, on Davis' three pointer, his first made field goal of the game. 

Butler had 19 points in the first half--including 11 in the second quarter--plus six rebounds and six assists to lift Miami to a 58-54 halftime lead. He scored 11 points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the third quarter, and the Heat were up 85-80 with 12 minutes to go. James asserted himself early in the fourth quarter, scoring or assisting on the Lakers' first 11 points. Rondo's driving layup capped an 8-0 run, and put the Lakers ahead, 91-89. Butler reasserted control, dribbling the ball up the court for nearly every Heat possession, and making sure that he either scored or created a quality shot for a teammate. Butler also accepted the challenge of guarding James. The Heat outscored the Lakers 26-13 down the stretch.

The game ended in fitting and symbolic fashion, with James leading the Lakers off of the court before the final buzzer; the referees had to summon five Lakers back on to the court for the final inbounds play. 

The Miami Heat culture is refreshing: no tanking, no quitting, no excuses, no complaining. Just play ball, and play hard for 48 minutes. 

The analytics and the smart money say that the Lakers will win this series. I have never overreacted to one game, and I will not overreact now--but it is great to see a team and a leader embrace challenges instead of whining about them.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:05 AM

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