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Monday, April 21, 2025

Notes and Thoughts About the Second Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

Sunday featured the second quadrupleheader of the the 2025 NBA playoffs. My notes about the first quadrupleheader can be found here. 

Here are my thoughts about Sunday's games:

Game One: Oklahoma City Thunder 131, Memphis Grizzlies 80

Wait, the Thunder just had another fast break dunk...and another three pointer in transition. This game was the NBA version of "That escalated quickly." Memphis took a 4-0 lead, but the Thunder deluge soon hit: Oklahoma City led 33-20 at the end of the first quarter, and then knocked out the Grizzlies with a 20-0 run in a little over four minutes during the second quarter to push the lead to 55-22. By that point, the only questions were how big the final margin would be and how few points the Grizzlies would score.

The Grizzlies' lowest point total during the regular season was 99, and they would have needed a full extra quarter to reach that number versus the Thunder in game one. The 51 point gap is the fifth largest victory margin in NBA playoff history, and the largest game one win in NBA playoff history. An interesting footnote is that none of the four teams with larger single game playoff victory margins--the 2009 Nuggets (58), the 1956 Lakers (58), the 1973 Lakers (56), and the 2015 Bulls (54)--won an NBA title that season.

Most of the numbers from this game are ridiculously lopsided, but particularly noteworthy are the Thunder's 27-5 advantage in fast break points and the Thunder's 17-6 lead in three point field goals made. Every Thunder starter scored in double figures, and reserve Aaron Wiggins had a team-high 21 points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2025 NBA scoring champion, only played 23 minutes, scoring 15 points on 4-13 field goal shooting. Ja Morant and Marvin Bagley III were the only Grizzlies who scored in double figures (17 points each).

While it is true that the Grizzlies have a good record for an eighth seed (48-34), the Thunder defeated the Grizzlies 4-0 in the regular season, with victory margins of 24, 13, 17, and 21. Therefore, a Thunder blowout win in game one is not surprising. 

This is a good time to remember a classic quote from Danny Ainge during his playing career; after a blowout, Ainge correctly noted that the NBA is not the Tour de France: in the NBA, the next game starts 0-0, not with one team leading by the victory margin from the previous game. The Thunder are the much superior team, but one blowout does not mean that the next game will be a blowout or even that the series will be a sweep, although I picked the Thunder to sweep the Grizzlies.

Game Two: Boston Celtics 103, Orlando Magic 86

The Magic led 49-48 at halftime. Their bump and run perimeter defense frustrated and limited Boston's potent offense, but the Magic did not sustain the energy necessary to play that level of defense for a full 48 minutes. A bigger issue for the Magic is that their anemic offense could not generate enough points to remain competitive even though their defense held the Celtics to 13 points below their regular season scoring average. The gritty Magic will fight hard during this series and may even grind out one win, but their team is too limited to beat the Celtics four times in seven games

The Celtics won despite getting pedestrian scoring from their two best players. Jayson Tatum finished with just 17 points on 8-22 field goal shooting, but he also had a game-high 14 rebounds plus four assists. Jaylen Brown added 16 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Derrick White more than picked up the slack with a team-high 30 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, including 7-12 from beyond the arc. Payton Pritchard contributed 19 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in 25 minutes off of the bench.

Paolo Banchero scored a game-high 36 points on 14-27 field goal shooting while grabbing 11 rebounds and passing for four assists, but Franz Wagner (23 points on 10-24 field goal shooting) was the only other Orlando player who scored more than seven points. The Magic committed 15 turnovers and shot just 34-81 (.420) from the field. To have any chance, the Magic need to protect the ball better, and they need to push the pace in transition after defensive stops to take some pressure off of their limited half court offense.

Game Three: Cleveland Cavaliers 121, Miami Heat 100

The Cavaliers led 31-24 after the first 12 minutes, and--much like Orlando versus Boston--the Heat don't have enough offensive firepower to be competitive in this matchup. The Cavaliers were ahead 62-54 at halftime, and after the Heat played the Cavaliers even in the third quarter (25-25) the Cavaliers pulled away by winning the fourth quarter, 34-21. Sixth Man of the Year candidate Ty Jerome was Cleveland's fourth quarter star, pouring in 16 points on 6-7 field goal shooting. He finished the game with 28 points, just two short of Donovan Mitchell's game-high 30 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Mitchell tied Michael Jordan's NBA record by scoring at least 30 points in game one for the seventh consecutive series (Jordan had two separate such streaks of seven series). Mitchell's fellow All-Star backcourt partner Darius Garland added 27 points on 10-17 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high five assists. Bam Adebayo led the Heat with 24 points on 10-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high nine rebounds. Tyler Herro scored 21 points on 7-18 field goal shooting.

The Cavaliers outrebounded the Heat 42-38, with Jarrett Allen (11 rebounds) leading the way. The Cavaliers were much more efficient offensively, shooting 45-88 (.511) from the field and committing just seven turnovers while the Heat shot 39-80 (.488) from the field and committed 14 turnovers. The Cavaliers narrowly won points in the paint (48-44) but shot 18-43 (.419) from three point range while holding the Heat to 13-31 (.419) shooting from beyond the arc. The Heat did not shoot terribly, but the Cavaliers took advantage of their "extra" possessions.

The Heat have more playoff experience--including several players who have played in the NBA Finals and one player who has won a championship (Andrew Wiggins)--but the Cavaliers have too much depth, size, and talent.

Game Four: Golden State Warriors 95, Houston Rockets 85

This game was the nightmare scenario for the Rockets in this matchup: despite holding the Warriors to 95 points (nearly 19 points below their season average) on .474 field goal shooting, they just could not generate enough offense to win. The death knell for the Rockets was when they scored 13 second quarter points on 6-18 (.333) field goal shooting; the Rockets outscored the Warriors by six points in the other three quarters but just could not overcome falling behind by as many as 23 points. The Rockets got to within three points in the fourth quarter but, as is often the case, the team that spends most of the game coming back does not have enough juice to close out the game.

Stephen Curry scored a game-high 31 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, including 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the decisive second quarter. Jimmy Butler had an excellent all-around game with 25 points, seven rebounds, and a team-high six assists. Brandin Podziemski chipped in 14 points and five assists. Draymond Green had his customary triple single (four points, six rebounds, three assists) as the best player on the injury-riddled 2019-20 Warriors team that went 15-50 continues to ride the coattails of his star teammates; yes, Green plays good defense and sets good screens, but let's not get twisted the difference between being two-time NBA Finals MVP Kevin Durant or 2022 NBA Finals MVP Stephen Curry or two-time best player on an NBA Finals team Jimmy Butler with being a valuable supporting cast member. Green is not a dominant rebounder and one on one defender like Dennis Rodman, nor is he a defensive stopper like Michael Cooper: he is a very good complementary player around star players, but if he played for a team other than the Warriors no one would know anything about him other than he has a bad temper and a big mouth.

Alperun Sengun led the Rockets with 26 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds, but he needs a lot more help from Houston's version of the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight": Dillon Brooks (11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting), Fred VanVleet (10 points on 4-15 field goal shooting), and Jalen Green (seven points on 3-15 field goal shooting) had "He with us" shooting performances, to borrow a Jalen Rose line (meaning that every time they shot and missed, the Warriors probably felt like saying, "He with us" because their poor shooting made them honorary Warriors).

The main bright spot for the Rockets is that they bludgeoned the Warriors on the glass, 52-36. Steven Adams had a game-high 12 rebounds in just 19 minutes, and he was the only Rocket with a positive plus/minus number (+4). The rebounding advantage is sustainable, so if the Rockets cut down on their turnovers (they had 16, compared to just 11 by the Warriors) and figure out how to make enough shots to score more than 100 points then they can still win this series.

Another factor to keep in mind is that Golden State's two best players are 37 years old (Curry) and 35 years old (Butler). Curry had a tendency to wear down during physical playoff series even when he was younger, and Butler is injury-prone, so if the Rockets keep up their physical play then that could pay dividends in a long series.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:37 PM

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Sunday, April 20, 2025

Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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