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Tuesday, March 05, 2024

Caitlin Clark is a Great Player, but She did not Break Pete Maravich's Division I Career Scoring Record

Caitlin Clark is a tremendous basketball player. She has established herself as one of the greatest female college basketball players of all-time, and there is every reason to believe that she will be a great professional player as well. Women's basketball is better than it has ever been, and Clark is one of the players who is leading the way.

However--contrary to recent reports--Clark is not the all-time Division I career scoring leader, because Division I exists in two separate categories. There is a women's Division I career scoring record (that is the one that Clark broke). Clark did not break the record set by "Pistol Pete" Maravich, who scored 3667 points in men's Division I. I say this not just because Maravich set his record in three varsity seasons while averaging 44.2 ppg in 83 games, compared to Clark averaging 28.3 ppg in 130 games in four seasons (though I would separately argue that there should be a three year Division I record and a four year Division I record because in Maravich's era by rule it was not possible to play four varsity seasons); I say this because Maravich played a different sport: men's basketball and women's basketball are two different sports, and to suggest otherwise is to deny reality. As great as Clark is, it is doubtful that she could start for any Division I men's team, let alone come close to averaging 28.3 ppg while playing versus Division I men. That is not a knock against Clark. There are biological differences between men and women; men tend to be bigger, stronger, and faster, and that is the reason that most sports--particularly at the elite level--have a men's category and a women's category. 

There seems to be a notion that comparing Clark to Maravich somehow elevates the women's game, but anyone with sense understands the obvious differences between men and women. Keeping men's records separate from women's records reflects the reality of those differences, and underscores the value of having two fully funded, separate leagues. Also, having separate records enables fans to celebrate the accomplishments of all of the great players in both sports. What if at some point the artificially combined records included only one woman in the top 10, and the other nine players were men? Then, instead of having two top 10 lists showcasing the scoring prowess of the best players in each sport, the feats of other women players would be forgotten. By the same token, in sports where it is unlikely that women would ever crack the combined top 10 (such as sprinting), it would not be right to merge the records, either.

It should further be noted that Clark is not even the career scoring leader in the women's college game. That distinction belongs to Pearl Moore, who played in the Association for Intercollegiate Athletics for Women (AIAW) at a time when women's basketball was not an NCAA sport. The NCAA does not acknowledge statistics from prior to 1982, much like the NBA does not officially count ABA statistics; both stances are historically and morally wrong. 

Those who seek to promote women's sports should focus on persuading the NCAA to admit that women's college basketball did not begin when the NCAA belatedly joined the party in 1982; instead of comparing Clark to Maravich, advocates for women's sports should compare Clark to Moore and insist that Moore receive full credit for her accomplishments during an era when women had very limited opportunities to play sports in general and basketball in particular.  

Recent attempts to blur the distinction between men's records and women's records do not uplift the women's game; this is not only a false equivalence, but it subliminally suggests that a women's record only matters in comparison to whatever the men's record is. Clark's career scoring numbers did not become more significant when her total in women's play surpassed Maravich's total in men's play. A cynic could wonder if blurring the distinction between men's records and women's records is a prelude for suggesting that separate men's sports and women's sports are not needed at all--and that would not benefit women at all, but we already see this happening with people who are biologically men petitioning for the right to compete as women against biological women. The notion that there are no biological differences between men and women threatens to undo many of the gains that women have made in recent decades toward obtaining equal rights and equal opportunities; it is puzzling that more feminists do not seem to understand this. A more authentic feminist position would be to assert that women's sports have intrinsic value without being compared to or merged with men's sports.

It should not be necessary to say this, but I want to emphasize again that I am not diminishing what Clark has accomplished. It should be obvious that I am praising her as one of the greatest women's college basketball players of all-time. I am a "girl Dad" as the current parlance puts it, and I encourage my daughter Rachel to play rated tournament chess--she has exclusively played in co-ed events up to this point--in addition to playing basketball and any other sport that interests her (including swimming, ice skating, and gymnastics). I support girls' sports and women's sports, and I believe that those sports have intrinsic merit without being compared to boys' sports and men's sports; of course, when a female successfully competes head to head with males--as Judit Polgar did for many years in world-class open chess tournaments--that should be celebrated, as any great sports accomplishment should be celebrated.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM

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Monday, March 04, 2024

Harris, Maxey, and Oubre Lead the Way as Philadelphia Outlasts Dallas, 120-116

The Philadelphia 76ers sans 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid--who missed his 14th straight game due to a knee injury--defeated the Dallas Mavericks 120-116 on Sunday afternoon. Tobias Harris scored a team-high 28 points, Tyrese Maxey added 24 points, and Kelly Oubre Jr. contributed 21 points in 26 minutes off of the bench for the 76ers. Luka Doncic scored a game-high 38 points, grabbed a game-high 11 rebounds (tied with the 76ers' Nicolas Batum), and dished for a game-high 10 assists to join Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and Russell Westbrook as the only players to have at least three consecutive 30 point triple doubles. Kyrie Irving scored 28 points, and Derrick Jones Jr. had 21 points in 26 minutes to match Oubre as the game's highest scoring bench player. The 76ers enjoyed significant advantages in points in the paint (52-42), turnovers (committing just nine compared to the Mavericks' 17), and bench scoring (41-26); it is worth remembering how much depth and defensive versatility the Mavericks gave up to acquire Irving.

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC, and this is the third 76ers game for which Brown has provided color commentary since February 23; his most recent telecast was when the Bucks defeated the 76ers 119-98 on Sunday February 25, and he also did the color commentary when the 76ers beat the Cavaliers 104-97 on Friday February 23.

Before this game began, Brown noted that Doncic is not only leading the NBA in scoring while ranking third in assists, but he also ranks 19th in rebounding (first among guards). Brown emphasized that Doncic plays with great "physical force," using his strength to score in the paint while also being prolific from three point range. The only thing that I would add to Brown's scouting report is that Doncic’s rebounding and ability to advance ball with either the dribble or the pass echo the way that his coach Jason Kidd played; Kidd was a one man fastbreak, and so is Doncic, even though his body type and playing style are both different than Kidd's. Regarding Maxey, Brown said that the key question is, "Can you lead and make the plays when you get trapped?" He added that this is particularly important in the last five minutes of close games.

The Mavericks jumped out to an 11-0 lead, and that would usually be significant because the NBA--contrary to popular belief--is not so much a fourth quarter league as a first quarter league: early leads often are the result of matchup advantages that can and will be exploited throughout the game. Here, though, the 76ers countered with a 32-11 run to end the first quarter with a 32-22 lead, and the 76ers did not trail the rest of the way. Maxey scored 17 first quarter points on 7-10 field goal shooting. Brown commented that Maxey is "answering the pressure" of being the team's number one option with Embiid out of action, and Brown mentioned that Maxey is very dangerous going right because of his explosive quickness.

Doncic and Irving started slowly with Doncic scoring three first quarter points on 1-6 field goal shooting (though he did have five assists) and Irving failing to score after shooting 0-1 from the field. Both heated up in the second quarter: Doncic scored 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting, and Irving had seven points on 3-4 field goal shooting as the Mavericks outscored the 76ers 29-24 to trim the 76ers' lead to 56-51. The 76ers' Buddy Hield committed a backcourt foul--with the Mavericks in the bonus--with less than a second remaining in the first half, and P.J. Washington nailed both free throws. Brown said of Hield's gaffe, "That's a gift." The 76ers only committed one first half turnover, and they scored 30 points in the paint, while the Mavericks coughed up the ball 11 times and scored just 16 points in the paint. 

Brown does not just talk about star players. He praised Paul Reed's game overall, and he focused on how Reed makes himself "available" for the pass while staying active on the boards. Reed had 13 points and seven rebounds for the 76ers. Brown pointed out that Harris' post ups on the block versus smaller defenders drew double teams that led to open three point shots. Brown described this game as one characterized by three "streaks": the Mavericks' 11-0 run at the start, Maxey's subsequent 17 point first quarter explosion, and then Maxey scoring just two points in the second quarter and the third quarter combined. Maxey missed the last four minutes of the third quarter after slipping and banging his head on Derrick Jones Jr.'s right shin, but after being examined by medical staff Maxey was cleared to return for the fourth quarter. Maxey played all 12 minutes in the final stanza, scoring five points.

Brown also talked about the league-leading Boston Celtics, saying that the Celtics are "9-10 deep with established players. They can defend." Those words proved to be prophetic, as later in the afternoon the Celtics dismantled the Golden State Warriors, 140-88. TNT's Charles Barkley recently said that the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors are not championship contenders; the Celtics seemed determined to prove Barkley correct about the Warriors while also getting a (small) measure of revenge for the Warriors clinching the 2022 championship on Boston's home court.

Down the stretch, Brown said, "This is about Dallas playing halfcourt defense." The Mavericks outscored the 76ers 40-30 in the fourth quarter, but that was not quite enough to complete the comeback attempt. Oubre provided a big lift in the fourth quarter, scoring 11 points. Doncic (18 points) and Irving (10 points) shined offensively in the final 12 minutes, but--as Brown correctly stated--the Mavericks needed to string together stops in order to prevail. 

Doncic's 30 point triple double happened anticlimactically, as Brown's play by play partner Dave Pasch mentioned that Doncic had been credited with his 10th assist without specifying exactly when that happened. Doncic is a great player on the way toward becoming an all-time great player, but some of the numbers being posted in today's NBA--not just by Doncic, but in general--should be viewed with a skeptical eye. For example, take a look at Doncic's 10th assist at the 1:34 mark of the fourth quarter, granted by a Dallas scorekeeper who must have known that time was running out for Doncic to notch his third straight 30 point triple double: Doncic passed to Irving, who caught the ball on the right wing outside of the three point line, sized up defender Kyle Lowry, took two hard dribbles, and then nailed a fadeaway jumper in the paint. What contribution did Doncic's pass make to "assist" Irving's field goal? Irving scored on a one on one move. Here is the NBA's rule book definition of an assist, as quoted in an article that I wrote on December 18, 2008:

An assist is a pass that directly leads to a basket. This can be a pass to the low post that leads to a direct score, a long pass for a layup, a fast break pass to a teammate for a layup, and/or a pass that results in an open perimeter shot for a teammate. In basketball, an assist is awarded only if, in the judgement of the statistician, the last player's pass contributed directly to a made basket. An assist can be awarded for a basket scored after the ball has been dribbled if the player's pass led to the field goal being made.

Doncic's pass to Irving did not contribute directly to the field goal being made. The NBA retroactively rescinded a phony LeBron James triple double in November 2014, but the league has been very inconsistent (and not transparent) about how/when/if it reviews scorekeeping errors; my subjective belief/observation is that the NBA rescinds egregiously incorrect triple doubles that receive a lot of media attention, but that the league does not have the inclination to systematically review scorekeeping errors. My research years ago indicated that assist totals in general--and Chris Paul's assist totals in particular--are inflated, but based on the NBA's indifference it is evident that the league would prefer to have gaudy numbers to promote and thus is disinclined to look too closely behind the curtain. This is unfortunate for players who accumulated their numbers during eras when assists were awarded with much less leniency.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:34 AM

4 comments

Sunday, March 03, 2024

LeBron James Establishes the 40,000 Point Club, but Nuggets Rally Late to Beat Lakers, 124-114

LeBron James made history, but Nikola Jokic's Denver Nuggets got the 124-114 win over James' L.A. Lakers. Jokic dominated with a game-high 35 points on 16-25 field goal shooting plus 10 rebounds and seven assists. His +16 plus/minus number led both teams. Plus/minus numbers can be "noisy" and should be placed in context, but with Jokic there is a large data sample demonstrating that the Nuggets are an elite level team when he is on the court and a much weaker team when he is not on the court. Michael Porter Jr. contributed 25 points on 10-10 field goal shooting, and Jamal Murray added 24 points plus a team-high 11 assists. James led the Lakers with 26 points, and he became the first player in pro basketball history to score more than 40,000 regular season points. Rui Hachimura chipped in 23 points, and Anthony Davis scored 17 points while grabbing a team-high 11 rebounds--but no other Laker had more than four rebounds, and the Nuggets outrebounded the Lakers 47-31.

The Nuggets swept the Lakers 4-0 in the 2023 Western Conference Finals by dominating in the second half, and they used that same formula to win this game: the Lakers led 66-58 at halftime, but in the second half the Nuggets outscored the Lakers 66-48 and outshot the Lakers .636 to .476. The Lakers played well offensively overall--scoring 114 points while shooting .528 from the field, including .414 from three point range--but their defense is just not at a championship level. In other words, what I have been saying about the Lakers for several years is still true: they don't need "lasers" (elite three point shooters), Frank Vogel was not the problem, Russell Westbrook was not the problem, the "tremendous trio" that the Lakers received in the Westbrook trade was not the answer, and the Lakers will not be a legitimate championship contender until they consistently play elite defense.

The Lakers led 110-108 with 4:11 to go in the fourth quarter after James made a driving layup, but the Nuggets closed the game with a 16-4 run. James scored 13 fourth quarter points on 6-8 field goal shooting while playing all 12 minutes. Murray led the Nuggets with nine fourth quarter points, while Jokic scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in eight minutes. Jokic led both teams with a +12 plus/minus number in the fourth quarter. 

Since James joined the Lakers in 2018, he has been stacking up individual accomplishments, but the Lakers have not accomplished much collectively other than winning the 2020 "bubble" championship: the Lakers missed the playoffs in 2019 and 2022, lost in the first round in 2021, and--as noted above--were swept by the Nuggets in the 2023 Western Conference Finals. James' personal milestones during that period are notable:

On January 23, 2018, James became the youngest member of the 30,000 point club.

On February 7, 2023, James broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's regular season career scoring record of 38,387 points.

Last night, James became the first player to score 40,000 career regular season points. That is a staggering number: The 10,000 point club is a milestone accomplishment that relatively few pro basketball players reach, so James is now the equivalent of a very good NBA career ahead of the 30,000 point mark! For further context, it should be noted that when LeBron James entered the NBA in 2004, the 30,000 point club had just five members: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain, and Julius Erving. The 20,000 point club had 32 members (including the five players listed above). Rules changes and style of play changes have made both clubs somewhat less exclusive--the 30,000 point club now has eight members, and the 20,000 point club now has 55 members--but it is amazing that James has doubled the scoring output of all but 54 players out of the thousands who have played pro basketball for the past 75-plus years. James' durability and consistency is remarkable, as is the fact that he is still playing at an All-NBA level as a 39 year old. One hesitates to call any record unbreakable, but even with the lax defense being played in the NBA today it is difficult to foresee a player averaging 2000 points per season for 20 seasons, which is what it would take to match James' current total--and James conceivably could pad that total by 2000 or more points!

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:39 AM

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