2021-2022 Western Conference Preview
If the L.A. Lakers stay healthy then they will be the best team in the Western Conference. The addition of Russell Westbrook is a major positive, regardless of the ridiculous anti-Westbrook narratives conjured up by various media members.
The Phoenix Suns were the surprise team in an unusual season during which several top contenders suffered devastating injuries. The Suns look real in terms of being a contender, but a return trip to the NBA Finals is not likely barring a repeat of all of the misfortunes that struck down deeper, more talented teams.
The Utah Jazz will be saddled with the label that they are built for the regular season and not the postseason unless/until they at least advance to the NBA Finals. The Denver Nuggets have had more playoff success than the Jazz in recent years (including a trip to the 2020 Western Conference Finals sandwiched around a pair of second round losses), but a similar label dogs the Nuggets as well.
If/when Kawhi Leonard will return this season is the obvious main question pertaining to the L.A. Clippers. The secondary question if Leonard returns and is able to play at a high level revolves around Paul George's ability to be an effective second option alongside Leonard. Paradoxically, George often plays better when Leonard is out of the lineup, yet George has already demonstrated that he cannot be the top option on a championship team; George is best suited to being the number two option, yet he is not always comfortable in that role.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on
their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) L.A. Lakers: Injuries derailed the 2020 NBA champions, so the Lakers reloaded their roster and added a lot of talent and depth, including 2017 regular season MVP Russell Westbrook, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, Trevor Ariza, and Carmelo Anthony. If the Lakers could enter a time machine and go back about four or five years then they would be poised to be one of the most dominant teams ever. As things stand now, James is more injury-prone than he was when he was younger, but when he is healthy he is still an MVP-caliber player, and Anthony Davis--who has always been injury-prone--is likewise an MVP-caliber player when he is healthy. Westbrook played at an MVP-caliber level in the latter portion of last season after overcoming COVID-19 and injuries. If James, Davis, and Westbrook are healthy during the playoffs then this team will be very difficult to beat. Concerns about chemistry and on-court fit will be proven to be baseless if the Big Three players are healthy.
Rondo, Howard, Ariza, and Anthony do not have to be anywhere close to as good as they were in their primes. Rondo is the team's third best playmaker behind James and Westbrook. Howard has proven that he can still be an effective paint presence for short spurts. Ariza has been a solid contributor throughout his career, including his first stint with the Lakers when Kobe Bryant led the team to the 2009 championship. Anthony is a one dimensional player who does not score as productively or efficiently as he did during his prime, but if he can accept being a 15-20 mpg player whose minutes could fluctuate due to matchups then at this stage of his career he can be the sixth or seventh best player on a championship-caliber team.
If the Lakers are healthy, they will win the West, and it would be fascinating to see prime Giannis Antetokounmpo versus elder statesman LeBron James in the NBA Finals.
2) Utah Jazz:
The Jazz had the best record in the Western Conference but they have not reached the NBA Finals since the glory days of Karl Malone and John Stockton. On paper, this team has everything needed to win a championship: great defense, versatile and efficient offense, star players, role players who accept their roles. Yet, something is missing. The L.A. Clippers sans Kawhi Leonard eliminated the Jazz in six games in the second round. Utah's defense fell apart as the Clippers scored 131 points in game six and the Clippers scored at least 118 points in each of the final four games of that series as they stormed back from a 2-0 deficit.
Maybe I am overrating the Jazz, but the positive qualities that they displayed on both ends of the court over a 72 game season should mean something, and perhaps this painful playoff defeat will provide motivation to take the next step. Many people wrote off the Milwaukee Bucks after they lost in the playoffs as a number one seed, and the Bucks bounced back to win the championship.
3) Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul deserves credit for having an impact on this team, but the Suns were already rising before he arrived. The Suns went 8-0 in the 2020 "bubble" to just miss the playoffs, and they have a stable of young stars, including Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Suns' journey to the 2021 NBA Finals was not a fluke, but the Suns did benefit from misfortunes suffered by rival teams, and Paul is a small, aging guard. The Suns will stay near the top of the West this season, but I would be surprised if they return to the NBA Finals.
4) Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry had a great season in 2020-21 after missing all but five games in 2019-20 due to injury, but even his remarkable sharpshooting was not enough to lift the Warriors to the eighth seed. That puts into context how incredible it is that Kobe Bryant carried the Lakers to the playoffs in 2006 and 2007 with a much weaker roster than the Warriors had last season.
Klay Thompson will return to action this season, but it is uncertain when he is coming back, and when a player has been out as long as he has there is always a concern about whether he can regain his previous form.
If Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green are healthy at playoff time, this team is obviously dangerous. The young players must continue to develop, and the status of Andrew Wiggins (who remains unvaccinated and thus is currrently ineligible to play in all of the Warriors' home games, and possibly other games as well) must be clarified before we know for sure how far this team can go, but it is doubtful that sans Kevin Durant this core group will return to the NBA Finals. Without Durant, the Warriors won one championship against an injury-riddled Cleveland team in 2015, and then lost in the Finals to a healthier version of that team in 2016. Durant was the driving force behind the back to back championships in 2017-18, and there is no way to replace his contributions.
5) Denver Nuggets: If Jamal Murray returns in time and in form then the Nuggets could be very dangerous in the playoffs, but if the Nuggets do not get off to a quick start then they may not have home court advantage in any playoff series, which is a tough way to try to win a title. Nikola Jokic is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer who deserved the 2021 regular season MVP, but he needs more help to lift this team to elite status.
6) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic looks like he will be an MVP candidate for the foreseeable future. Can Kristaps Porzingis be the second option on a championship contender? Can/will the Dallas Mavericks improve defensively? Jason Kidd replaces Rick Carlisle on the bench, and perhaps a new voice will squeeze something extra out of this roster, but the Mavericks do not look like a top four seed.
7) L.A. Clippers: Kawhi Leonard has led two different franchises to a championship, but he has yet to take the Clippers even close to the basketball Promised Land; they lost in the second round in 2020, and then advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season even after he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in game five of the second round. Don't be fooled by the Clippers finishing off Utah without Leonard before bowing to the Suns in the Western Conference Finals; if Leonard misses a significant portion of the season, this is not a top four team in the West.
8) Portland Trail Blazers: Rookie Coach Chauncey Billups has his hands full with a team that has unreasonably high expectations both internally and from the fan base. The team's fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals has been followed by back to back first round losses. The resumption of Carmelo Anthony's career in Portland was much hyped by the media, but contributed nothing to the team's development; his departure to the Lakers may help the Lakers, but will not hurt Portland very much. This team relies on offense, yet is not very efficient offensively, ranking just 23rd in field goal percentage last season. Portland was even worse defensively, ranking 25th in defensive field goal percentage. When a team does not score efficiently and cannot stop the opposition from scoring efficiently it is not realistic to expect much more than a low playoff seed and a first round exit.
The remaining Western Conference teams have glaring weaknesses.
Without Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard, Coach Gregg Popovich has not exactly set the basketball world on fire in San Antonio. The Spurs missed the playoffs in 2020, and finished 10th in the West last season before losing a Play-In Tournament game to Memphis. The Spurs have slipped defensively in recent years, and until Popovich reverses that trend this team is going nowhere fast.
The Memphis
Grizzlies qualified for the Play-In Tournament and then knocked out the Golden State Warriors, defying the laws of basketball physics that supposedly demand that Stephen Curry's "gravity" controls the basketball universe. However, their offseason moves did not strengthen the team's talent or depth, and the best case scenario is sneaking into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
As long as the New Orleans Pelicans have Zion Williamson, they will always be the darlings of the major television networks, but there is a big difference between being hyped up and featured on television versus being a team that is committed to winning. Williamson is a very efficient scorer but he is a below average rebounder for his size/skill set/position, and he is a subpar defensive player. His deficiencies in those two key areas set the tone for the team, and the results are not surprising.
The Sacramento Kings are good enough to hang around the fringes of the Play-In Tournament.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are developing their young players and stockpiling draft picks, and they appear to be at least one season away from fighting for the final playoff spot.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are plagued by organizational chaos, resulting in a mismatched roster that has some individual talent but little clue how to translate that talent into group success.
After James Harden wrecked the franchise by coming into camp out of shape and pouting his way out of town, the Houston Rockets sank to the bottom of the Western Conference. The best that the Rockets can realistically hope for is to avoid landing in the basement again.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2021 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2021 Total: 102/128 (.797)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 10:25 PM
2021-22 Eastern Conference Preview
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a "made man" after leading the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title, but there is no indication that he will rest on his laurels. Antetokounmpo has established himself as the league's best and most dominant player, and he has a strong supporting cast anchored by Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday. If the Bucks stay healthy, they have an excellent chance to win the NBA championship again.
Despite being the reigning champions, the Bucks may fly underneath the radar because a lot of attention will be focused on the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets are the chic pick to at least win the Eastern Conference, and then battle with the chic pick in the Western Conference--the L.A. Lakers--for the crown. I correctly picked the Bucks to beat the Nets in last year's playoffs, and I favor the Bucks over the Nets this season as well.
The Atlanta Hawks made a surprising run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Throughout NBA history, there have been a few teams that sailed through a perfect storm to reach that level one time, and then never returned. Are the Hawks one of those teams, or have they built a foundation for sustained success?
The Ben Simmons drama in Philadelphia has been much discussed, but the 76ers are not winning a championship any time soon with or without Simmons. "Tanking to the Top" is one of the worst and most misleading book titles ever, and it does not in any way describe what the 76ers did or are doing (other than the tanking part--the "to the top" part is pure fantasy).
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) Milwaukee Bucks: I ranked the Bucks first in the East prior to last season, and I picked them to win the championship prior to the start of the 2021 playoffs, so I have no reason to "demote" them after they met all of my justified expectations.
In my 2020-21 Eastern Conference Preview, I stated that Antetokounmpo may be on the verge of having a championship breakthrough like Isiah Thomas had in 1989 and Michael Jordan had in 1991: "[T]his
season probably must be his 1991 Jordan season or his 1989 Thomas
season, the season in which he wins a title (or, at the very least,
advances to the NBA Finals) after falling short in the playoffs during
the previous seasons. I have picked Milwaukee before and been wrong, but
I will pick the Bucks at least one more time, because I am impressed by
Antetokounmpo's skill set and mentality, and I believe that he and his
team are still on an upward trajectory."
Antetokounmpo finished fourth in the 2021 regular season MVP voting after winning consecutive MVPs, but Antetokounmpo's 2020-21 campaign was arguably just as good as his MVP seasons. For the past three seasons, Antetokounmpo has consistently been a high level scorer (27.7 ppg, 29.5 ppg, 28.1 ppg), rebounder (12.5 rpg, 13.6 rpg, 11.0 rpg), passer (5.9 apg, 5.6 apg, 5.9 apg), field goal shooter (.578, .553, .569), and defender (at least one block per game and at least one steal per game in each of the past three seasons). Jokic would have been my choice for 2021 regular season MVP, but that does not take anything away from how well Antetokounmpo played and how remarkable his play has been not just for the past three seasons, but going back the past five seasons, during which time he has finished no lower than seventh in MVP balloting.
The two main reasons that Antetokounmpo did not win his third regular
season MVP are (1) "voter fatigue" (which is the same ridiculous reason
that Michael Jordan and LeBron James did not win more regular season
MVPs during their respective primes), and (2) Nikola Jokic had a
fabulous season for a Denver Nuggets team that exceeded expectations
after Jamal Murray suffered a season-ending injury, overshadowing
Antetokounmpo's excellent work for a Milwaukee team that many media
members portrayed as a disappointing squad.
Of course, Antetokounmpo carved his place into basketball immortality during the 2021 playoffs, averaging 30.2 ppg, a league-playoff high 12.8 rpg, and 5.1 apg. It is a testament to his conditioning, his determination, his focus, and his skill set development that he dominated the NBA Finals (35.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg, 5.0 apg, including 50 points, 14 rebounds, five blocked shots, and two assists in Milwaukee's game six series clinching win) after suffering what at first looked like a season-ending knee injury in the Eastern Conference Finals.
It is difficult to win back to back championships, and it is understandable why many people are focusing on the Nets and the Lakers, but Antetokounmpo and the Bucks should not be underestimated.
2) Brooklyn Nets: Kevin Durant has made a complete recovery from his serious injuries, and he can be counted on to deliver an MVP-level season. However, I do not trust his sidekicks Kyrie Irving and James Harden.
Irving is already an NBA champion with generational wealth who has proven that he can make clutch shots on the biggest stage. He may feel like he has nothing left to prove or accomplish in the NBA; his statements and actions suggest that he would be just as happy, if not happier, doing anything other than what is required to stay in the NBA, let alone be a top level NBA performer. His track record of being injury-prone is well documented, but what should be even more disconcerting to Nets' fans is that Irving's mental focus seems to be far away from basketball.
Harden showed up for last season out of shape, whined and begged his way out of Houston, and then was bitten by karma as his lack of conditioning no doubt contributed to the hamstring injury that never quite healed.
If the Nets are healthy and focused, of course they will be tough to beat, but health and focus are major question marks for this team.
3) Miami Heat: The additions of Kyle Lowry, P.J. Tucker, and Markieff Morris make this a deeper and tougher team than the squad that lost to the L.A. Lakers in the 2020 NBA "bubble" Finals. Jimmy Butler will likely bounce back from a subpar playoff performance during which he shot just .297 from the field (that is not a misprint) as the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round.
Coach Erik Spoelstra did an excellent job managing egos, roles, and strategies as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh led the Heat to two NBA titles while making four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2011-2014, and then Spoelstra led the Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals without having that kind of star power. The injury-riddled Heat slipped to sixth in the East last season, but the Heat look like the best of the rest in the East this season, just a notch below the Bucks and the Nets.
4) Atlanta Hawks: I am not convinced that the Hawks are for real, but they are a young team that advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals after Nate McMillan replaced Lloyd Pierce as the team's head coach last season. Trae Young is a talented and gutsy player, but I am always skeptical of the championship aspirations of teams led by small players because size matters in the NBA.
The Hawks did not make any significant personnel moves during the offseason, so they are banking on internal stability and growth as the recipe for sustained success. That is not the worst approach to take after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals--why blow up a team that is doing well?--but that approach conveys the assumption that the team as currently constructed is talented enough and deep enough to not only match last season's playoff run but to go further this season. I suspect that last season the Hawks maxed out their current potential, and that they will not match--let alone surpass--reaching the Eastern Conference Finals without adding more talent.
5) Boston Celtics: The Boston Celtics may have peaked when they reached the Eastern Conference Finals three times in a four season span (2017-18, 2020). Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown have continued to develop individually, but the team has regressed and does not look like a serious contender. Obtaining the fourth seed and losing in the second round may be the realistic ceiling for this team this season. Offseason acquisitions Enes Kanter and Dennis Schroder provide some offensive punch. Perhaps if Al Horford--who played very well in his first stint with the Celtics--still has enough left in the tank to be an impact player at both ends of the court then the Celtics can return to the Eastern Conference Finals, but that sounds more like wishful thinking than realistic planning.
6) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers posted the best record in the Eastern Conference last season, but then lost game seven at home in the second round to the underdog Atlanta Hawks. In that game seven loss, Ben Simmons eschewed an easy dunk attempt to pass the ball to Matisse Thybulle, who was fouled and split a pair of free throws to pull the 76ers to within one point (88-87) with 3:29 remaining in the fourth quarter. That one highly scrutinized play did not decide the outcome of the game or the series, but it has become emblematic of the disconnect between Simmons, and the front office, the coaching staff, at least some of his teammates, the media, and the Philadelphia fans.
Simmons' refusal to shoot jump shots and his reluctance to attempt any fourth quarter shots because he might be fouled and have to attempt free throws became a huge story, with the end result being that Simmons is unwilling to play for Philadelphia again, demanding a trade to any other team in the league. It is unusual, to say the least, for a player from a top-seeded team to prefer to play for the worst team in the league, if necessary, than for his current squad.
There is plenty of blame that should be shared for the Simmons fiasco. Simmons has always been a low motor player who seems reluctant to work on his game or expand his skill set, so his extreme response to criticism should not be surprising to anyone who has followed his career. Coach Doc Rivers should have answered the infamous post-game press conference question by stating unequivocally that Simmons can be the starting point guard on a championship team. Even if Rivers thought/thinks otherwise, that is a sentiment to be shared with team management behind closed doors. After you ride with Simmons all the way to a game seven loss, you just cannot publicly throw him under the bus, or even offer anything less than 100% support--if for no other reason than this would lower his trade value if you don't believe in him and do plan to trade him.
Daryl Morey, the latest "stat guru" hired by the 76ers to be their front office savior, comes across as tone deaf and clueless on multiple levels. He has never understood team chemistry, and he is not good at evaluating top level players, though he does have a proven talent for knowing how to effectively fill out the bottom portion of a roster. Unfortunately for the 76ers, finding good value for roster spots 7-10 is not going to help this team win a title. Last season, Morey told Simmons that he was not shopping him, but then openly shopped him to try to obtain James Harden, who according to Morey's metrics is just short of divine perfection as a basketball player. After Simmons became fed up with Rivers and the whole organization, Morey proclaimed that he can be comfortable being uncomfortable and that he will not be pressured into accepting less for Simmons than Simmons is worth; two of the many problems with Morey's approach are (1) the 76ers torched Simmons' value by publicly criticizing him, thereby reducing his market value, and (2) if Simmons follows through on his threat to not show up even if he is fined/suspended/loses all of his salary then Morey has no leverage, which means that all of the GMs who are sick of hearing (often from Morey) how smart Morey is have zero incentive to dig Morey out of the huge hole in which he has buried himself.
Joel Embiid is an MVP caliber talent, but can he maintain the necessary health and motivation to lead this team to a title? Embiid is supposed to be the crown jewel grand prize from the 76ers' years of tanking, but I have consistently criticized the 76ers' tanking under "stat guru" Sam Hinkie, and any sensible person can see a direct link between the tanking and the 76ers' current problems, as I explained after the Celtics swept the 76ers in 2020: "The 76ers have talent, but they also have 'issues,' whether or not
Embiid is willing to admit it. Tanking does not promote, cultivate, or
develop a winning culture, so it is no surprise that a team built by
tanking lacks mental toughness; the 76ers are frontrunners who rely on
raw talent, but they do not maximize their talent, and they fold when
they face adversity. This is a predictable outcome from tanking, and
indeed I predicted this from the start, in contrast to the overheated
praise many media members heaped on Sam Hinkie, the creator of 'The
Process.'"
I never trusted "The Process," I don't trust it now, and regardless of how the Simmons situation is resolved I expect the 76ers to remain who I predicted them to be and who they have been: a team that comes up short when it matters most because the correct foundation for success was not put in place when this team was built.
7) New York Knicks: Any team can have a bad two decades, but under the leadership of a competent front office ("Finally!" Knicks fans exclaim) and Coach Tom Thibodeau, this hard-working team maximized its potential during the 2021 regular season before realizing that the top playoff teams find another gear during the postseason.
Julius Randle's emergence as a an All-Star and as a member of the All-NBA Second Team is a tribute to his work ethic, but it does not seem likely that he can be the best player on a championship team. The Knicks could be a better team this season than last season and still finish lower in the standings, because other teams in the Eastern Conference have improved their rosters to a greater extent.
8) Chicago Bulls: After missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season, the Bulls went all-in attempting to win now and inspire Zach LaVine to re-sign with the team. They signed free agents DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Alex Caruso to go along with midseason acquisition Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls will no doubt improve and it would be a massive disappointment if this team does not qualify for the playoffs, but it would also be surprising if the Bulls earn a top four seed. The Bulls have a lot of offensive firepower, but defense and rebounding remain major concerns.
The apparent permanent implementation of the Play-In Tournament means that the teams that finish the regular season in the top eight may not necessarily qualify for the playoffs. The teams ranked seventh through 10th will participate in the Play-In Tournament, just like last season. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
Hiring Rick Carlisle should stabilize the Indiana Pacers, but this Pacers team has far less talent than the ones that Carlisle led to the playoffs during his first stint in Indiana. The Pacers look like a squad that will be fighting for one of the Play-In Tournament slots.
The Charlotte Hornets looked like a playoff team for most of last season before they collapsed down the stretch, going 3-7 in the final 10 games. The Hornets went 24-20 when Gordon Hayward played, but just 9-19 in the games that he missed, including 8-16 in the final 24 games after Hayward suffered a season-ending right foot injury. Hopefully Hayward will return to full health--and remain healthy, which has been a challenge for him in recent years--but even if he does the Hornets are not good enough to crack the top eight in the East. They definitely look like a contender for the Play-In Tournament, which of course means they could end up in the top eight if things break right--but I would not count on that happening.
The Toronto Raptors had the second
best record in the Eastern Conference in 2019-20 despite losing the
services of 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard, but reality hit them hard
last season, and losing Kyle Lowry in the offseason is another blow.
Nick Nurse is an excellent coach, but the Raptors do not have enough
talent to crack the top eight in an improved Eastern Conference. The
Raptors could claw their way into the Play-In Tournament, and Nurse's
coaching may be enough in a one and done scenario to pull off an upset
or two, but I expect the Raptors to miss the playoffs.
The "stat gurus" and the numerous media members who consistently
belittle and berate Russell Westbrook may have playoff expectations for
the Washington
Wizards, but history and logic indicate that teams that lose an
MVP-caliber player tend to regress, usually significantly. The
Washington Wizards fought their way into the Play-In Tournament last
season largely because of Westbrook's MVP caliber play down the
stretch. Without Westbrook, this team is headed to the Draft Lottery.
Three Eastern Conference teams have no realistic shot of even fighting to qualify for the Play-In Tournament: Cleveland, Detroit, and Orlando. Hopefully, those teams will try to improve and will compete every night, and not follow the tanking path to nowhere.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked six of the eight 2021 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2021 Total: 96/128 (.750)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 10:04 PM
Five Players Who Led the NCAA and the NBA in Scoring
I remember learning during my early years as a basketball fan that Rick Barry is the only player to lead the NCAA, ABA, and NBA in scoring in a single season. That record will never be matched, because the ABA's nine season run ended in 1976 with the ABA-NBA merger. I recently watched the 2018 SEC Storied documentary about Pistol Pete Maravich, and the documentary noted that Maravich was one of the few players to lead the NCAA and the NBA in scoring. I had never checked before to see who else pulled off that double feat other than Barry and Maravich, but this is an elite group of just five players. Each of the first four players was selected to the NBA's 1996 50 Greatest Players List: George Mikan, Paul Arizin, Rick Barry, and Pete Maravich. The fifth player, Stephen Curry, did not begin his NBA career until more than a decade after the NBA released its 50 Greatest Players List, and he will almost certainly be selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team to be announced in October 2021.
Mikan led the NCAA in scoring twice (23.3 ppg in 1945, 23.1 ppg in 1946) before the NCAA officially began crowning a scoring champion in 1948, so he is considered as an "unofficial" scoring leader for those two seasons. Mikan led the National Basketball League (NBL) in scoring in 1947-48 (1195 points, the league single season record; 21.3 ppg), and after his Minneapolis Lakers jumped to the Basketball Association of America (BAA) in 1948-49 he led that league in scoring as well (1698 points; 28.3 ppg). The BAA and NBL merged to form the NBA prior to the 1949-50 season. Mikan won the NBA scoring title in 1950 (1865 points; 27.4 ppg) and 1951 (1932 points; 28.4 ppg). Mikan put up those scoring numbers in the pre-shot clock era, when opposing teams could slow the game down and limit his scoring opportunities. Note that until the 1969-70 season, the NBA crowned its scoring champion based on total points scored, not scoring average, but the NCAA has always crowned its scoring champion based on scoring average.
The NBA practices an interesting form of inconsistent historical revisionism, counting the 1947, 1948, and 1949 BAA seasons as NBA seasons but ignoring the NBL's records from those seasons. The NBA considers the 1949 deal between the BAA and NBL to be an NBA expansion, not a merger of two competing leagues, and the NBA pretends that NBL statistics do not exist, even though the NBL has a longer history (1937-49) than the BAA (1946-49). Despite the NBA's attempt to wipe the NBL out of the history books, the BAA was not clearly superior to the NBL or even other rival leagues; the 1948 and 1949 BAA titles were both won by teams that had been members of other leagues in the previous season but then proved to be better than all of the original BAA teams.
Similarly, the NBA has spent decades pretending that ABA statistics do not exist, even though ABA players dominated the NBA for several years after the 1976 ABA-NBA merger. It is noteworthy that even though the NBA does not count ABA statistics it did not classify former ABA players who had no NBA experience as rookies in 1976-77; if the NBA had done that, three-time ABA MVP Julius Erving might have added NBA Rookie of the Year honors to his trophy case (or the award might have gone to David Thompson or George Gervin, two other ABA veterans who made the All-NBA Team in 1976-77, their first NBA season). It makes no sense to ignore Erving's ABA numbers but then not classify him as a rookie during his first NBA season. The point is NOT that the NBA should have considered Erving to be a rookie in 1976-77; the point is that Erving's statistics from his first five professional seasons should be afforded equal status with his NBA statistics, much like the NFL affords equal status to AFL statistics.
My interview with Bill Tosheff provides background and context about the NBA's historical revisionism regarding the league's early years--which, tragically, extends to denying pension benefits to many of pro basketball's pioneers--and I have discussed the NBA's historical revisionism regarding the ABA in numerous articles, including ABA Numbers Should Also Count. The surviving ABA players are still battling with the NBA to secure pension benefits that they should have been receiving for decades.
Anyway, if we count Mikan's two "unofficial" NCAA scoring titles then he is the first of just five dual NCAA/NBA scoring title winners, regardless of whether he is credited with three NBA scoring titles (the NBA counts his 1949 BAA scoring title plus his 1950-51 NBA scoring titles) or with four NBA scoring titles (there is no reason that his 1948 NBL scoring title should be ignored).
Paul Arizin led the NCAA in scoring in 1950 (25.3 ppg). He led the NBA in scoring in 1952 (1674 points; 25.4 ppg) and in 1957 (1817 points; 25.6 ppg), winning one of the closest scoring title races in NBA history (1957) but also finishing second in two of the closest scoring title races in NBA history (1955, 1956). Two-time NBA scoring champion Arizin could have easily been a four-time NBA scoring champion, but he also could have easily been a one-time NBA scoring champion.
Rick Barry led the NCAA in scoring in 1965 (37.4 ppg). He won the NBA scoring title in 1967, his second season (2775 points; 35.6 ppg). Barry sat out a year before being permitted to jump to the ABA, and then he won the ABA scoring title in 1969, averaging 34.0 ppg. The ABA always crowned its scoring champion based on scoring average, not total points. Barry only played in 35 games in 1968-69, but he scored enough total points to qualify for the leaderboard, and he easily had the best scoring average (1968 ABA scoring champion Connie Hawkins finished a distant second in 1969 despite averaging 30.2 ppg).
Pete Maravich not only won three straight NCAA scoring titles (1968-70), but he set a new single season scoring mark three years in a row (43.8 ppg, 44.2 ppg, 44.5 ppg). His NCAA career scoring average record (44.2 ppg) has stood longer than Babe Ruth's career home run record stood, and is on the short list of records that will likely never be approached, let alone broken. Maravich led the NBA in scoring in 1977 (31.1 ppg).
Maravich was on pace to lead the NBA in scoring in 1978 before suffering a serious knee injury. Maravich was averaging 28.1 ppg in 1977-78 before he got hurt. He missed over a month, then came back for three games (during which he scored 0, 12, and 17 points), and then he missed the rest of the season. Those three games lowered Maravich's scoring average to 27.0 ppg in 50 games, and he did not score enough total points to even qualify for the leaderboard. Maravich's leading role for most of the 1978 scoring title race is largely forgotten now because of the famous scoring duel between George Gervin and David Thompson on the final day of that season. Thompson scored 73 points in a game early in the day before Gervin, who knew exactly how many points he needed to score to clinch the scoring title, scored 63 points. Gervin averaged 27.22 ppg in 1978 and Thompson averaged 27.15 ppg, so if Maravich had stayed healthy and maintained his previous scoring pace he would have cruised to his second consecutive scoring title (and thus Thompson and Gervin would probably have not had their final game scoring outbursts, because the scoring title would not have been up for grabs).
Stephen Curry led the NCAA in scoring in 2009 (28.6 ppg) before winning NBA scoring titles in 2016 (30.1 ppg) and 2021 (32.0 ppg). Curry is the only one of these five players who benefited from having the three point line in both college and the NBA during their scoring title seasons. The ABA used the three point shot throughout its existence but Barry shot just 3-10 from beyond the arc during his 1969 scoring title season, though he later made 73 three pointers--a large number at that time--during the 1972 ABA season, and he matched that total during the 1980 NBA season, the first year that the NBA used the three point shot, and the last season of Barry's NBA career.
It is interesting (but perhaps not surprising) that the vast majority of NCAA scoring champions do not win NBA scoring titles but that the few who did are not "just" Hall of Fame caliber players but players who rank at least among the top 50-75 NBA players of all-time.
Labels: George Mikan, Paul Arizin, Pete Maravich, Rick Barry, Stephen Curry
posted by David Friedman @ 3:47 PM
