An Initial Assessment of the Lakers After the Doncic-Davis Trade
The L.A. Lakers' 123-100 win versus the Denver Nuggets on February 22 sparked a lot of media talk and social media chatter about the Lakers being a legitimate championship contender. Can one game or even one good stretch of games prove that a team that has not won a playoff series since 2023 and has not advanced past the first round in three of the past four seasons is an elite squad?
The L.A. Lakers did not look like a championship contender when they started the season with a 13-9 record. On January 7, the Lakers fell to 20-16 after Jason Kidd coached circles around J.J. Redick as Kidd's shorthanded Mavericks routed Redick's Lakers. The 21-16 Mavericks looked poised to jump back into championship contention once the injured Luka Doncic returned to action--but less than a month later the Mavericks traded Doncic to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis, a deal that shocked the league and may have changed the trajectories of both franchises.
The Lakers have gone 10-2 since the trade--but they went 8-3 after the loss to Dallas and before the trade, so they showed signs of improvement before acquiring Doncic. The Mavericks have gone 6-6 since the trade, but it must be emphasized that Davis suffered an adductor strain in his first game with Dallas and he has been out of the lineup since that time. The Mavericks are also without the services of injured big men Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II, so the only fair grade for the post-trade Mavericks is "incomplete."
Since the trade, the Lakers have a 6-2 record with Doncic in the lineup, and they are 4-0 without Doncic. The teams that the Lakers beat with Doncic include the Jazz, the Nuggets, the Mavericks, the Timberwolves, and the Clippers (twice). The Lakers also lost to the Jazz and the Hornets with Doncic. Other then the Nuggets, none of those teams are currently seeded higher than sixth in the Western Conference--and the Hornets have the 14th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference. The Lakers beat the Clippers, Warriors, Pacers, and Trail Blazers sans Doncic; none of those teams currently ranks higher than fifth in their conference.
It was reasonable to assume that the Lakers sans Davis would struggle defensively and on the boards due to their relative lack of size--but the post-trade Lakers have improved in defensive field goal percentage, points allowed, and rebounding. The defensive improvement is surprising, and it remains to be seen if it is sustainable, particularly against stronger opposition; the Lakers are compensating for their lack of paint presence/shot blocking by playing with tremendous energy on the perimeter, and they are completing these frenetic defensive possessions by grabbing rebounds and then getting out on the break. LeBron James and Luka Doncic are by far the Lakers' two best rebounders: James averaged 10.5 rpg in February after averaging 7.0 rpg or less in three of the previous four months, and Doncic has averaged 8.3 rpg since joining the Lakers. For all of the talk about James being a pass first player who is a point guard, James is the same size as Hall of Fame power forward Karl Malone, and his teams have consistently been at their best when he played in the paint like a power forward. Similarly, Doncic may nominally be a point guard, but at 6-6, 230 he is the same size as a big small forward or a small power forward. It is not clear if the Lakers can win four playoff series with James as the de facto power forward and Doncic as the de facto small forward--but it is clear that without James and Doncic leading the way on the boards the Lakers would be in trouble. Offensively, James and Doncic may be sharing the "point forward" role, but the Lakers are thriving now because James and Doncic are rebounding like power forwards while also showing unexpected defensive commitment; James is playing better defensively than he has in years, and Doncic is at least paying some attention at that end of the court. James and Doncic are elite scorers and elite passers, so it is not surprising that the Lakers now have a high-powered offense--but the Lakers' playoff prospects are directly connected to defense and rebounding (which is true of any team's playoff prospects).
How significant is the Lakers' win versus the Nuggets? The Nuggets dominated the Lakers for the past several seasons, and eliminated the Lakers from the playoffs in 2023 and 2024, so Redick and company took great joy in that victory--but that was just one regular season win, not the four playoff victories necessary to prevail in a seven game series. The Lakers thought that they found something brilliant when they used Rui Hachimura as the primary defender on Nikola Jokic late in game one of the their 2023 playoff series, but the Nuggets still swept that series, so it is way too soon to say that the Lakers found something brilliant by fronting the post, swarming Jokic, and daring other Nuggets to make shots in a regular season game. Redick can pat himself on the back until his arm is sore, but that does not change the reality that one regular season win does not equal one playoff win, let alone four playoff wins.
Also, it is far from clear that the 2025 Nuggets are as good as the 2024 Nuggets or the 2023 Nuggets, so even if the Lakers have found something to vanquish the Nuggets that may not matter against the league's best teams. There are seven teams other than the Lakers that currently have a winning percentage of at least .600, and the post-trade Lakers have only played one of them (the Nuggets). Until we see the Lakers not only play regular season games against those teams but also face strong competition in a seven game playoff series it is too soon to say that the Lakers are legitimate championship contenders.
It is not surprising that the Doncic-James Lakers have a powerful offense. It is surprising that they have a good defense, even in a small sample size of games against mostly non-contending teams. It is not surprising that the Lakers with a relatively healthy Doncic are better than the Lakers with Davis (let alone an injured Davis); Doncic has been one of the NBA's top five players for the past five years, while Davis last made the All-NBA First Team in 2020.
An objective analyst needs to see more before labeling the Lakers as a legitimate championship contender, but it is understandable why Lakers' fans are excited about their team's prospects not only for the long term with Doncic at the helm but also for the short term with Doncic and James leading the charge together.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic
posted by David Friedman @ 1:29 AM
