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Saturday, May 20, 2023

Heat Stun Celtics in Boston, Take 2-0 Eastern Conference Finals Lead

The Boston Celtics have made some of the best comebacks in NBA playoff history, and in order to return to the NBA Finals they will need to pull that off yet again after losing to the Miami Heat 111-105 in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Comebacks from 2-0 deficits are rare, and comebacks after losing two games at home are even rarer. The Heat, who finished seventh in the Eastern Conference during the regular season but ended up as the eighth seed after the Play-In Tournament, deserve a lot of credit for peaking at the most opportune time while overcoming postseason injuries suffered by third leading scorer Tyler Herro and key reserve Victor Oladipo.  

Jimmy Butler led the way with 27 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three steals, and two blocked shots. Caleb Martin poured in 25 points on 11-16 field goal shooting in 32 minutes off of the bench. Martin is an undrafted player who began his career in the G League. Instead of tanking and trying to game the system, the Heat specialize in player development. Bam Adebayo contributed 22 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and nine assists. 

Jayson Tatum will get much of the blame for Boston's loss because he is the team's best player and because he did not make a fourth quarter field goal for the second consecutive game, but he finished with 34 points on 10-20 field goal shooting while compiling 13 rebounds and eight assists with a +5 plus/minus number. The Celtics lost the six non-Tatum minutes by 11 points; that is not Tatum's fault, but to win the 2023 NBA title Tatum may have to figure out how to be even more productive to overcome his teammates' shortcomings. The drop off from Tatum's 34 points to Jaylen Brown's 16 points on 7-23 field goal shooting should be very concerning for the Celtics and their fans.

The Celtics outshot the Heat (.468 to .457) while making one more three pointer and three more free throws, but the Heat generated extra possessions by winning the rebounding battle 45-35 and by committing four fewer turnovers. 

This game featured many ebbs and flows. The Heat jumped out to a 9-2 lead, but the Celtics were up 25-24 by the end of the first quarter. The Celtics extended the margin to 40-28 early in the second quarter, but the Heat were up 54-50 by halftime. After Marcus Smart hit a three pointer to put the Celtics up 79-68 with 2:39 remaining in the third quarter, it looked like the Celtics would salvage this game and head to Miami looking to win at least one road game to reclaim homecourt advantage.

Game two--and perhaps this series--seemed to shift from Boston to Miami at the 6:22 mark of the fourth quarter when Butler and Grant Williams each received technical fouls after jawing at each other. The Celtics led 96-89, but the Heat closed the game with a 22-9 run during which Butler scored seven points. Butler's 12 foot jumper with 2:33 remaining gave the Heat a 102-100 lead, and the Heat never trailed again. The back and forth with Williams seemed to further inspire Butler, a player whose energy level and effort are already high. At one point, Butler screamed out that Williams is not the answer--but Butler's clutch play spoke even louder than any words that he said. In previous stops, Butler clashed with teammates and organizations that were not as focused on winning as he is, but the Heat--run by Pat Riley and ably coached by Erik Spoelstra--are the perfect squad for Butler. 

It is not impossible for the Celtics--a playoff-tested squad that plays well on the road--to win the next two games in Miami, but that will be a daunting task.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:34 AM

2 comments

Friday, May 19, 2023

Murray's 23 Point Fourth Quarter Lifts Nuggets to 2-0 Lead Over Lakers

Jamal Murray scored 23 of his game-high 37 points in the fourth quarter as the Denver Nuggets--who trailed by as many as 11 points in the third quarter--defeated the L.A. Lakers 108-103 to take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Murray started the game slowly, and it is often true that the NBA is a first quarter league--but fourth quarter points become very significant when the game is close down the stretch, and Murray nearly matched the fourth quarter scoring output of the entire Lakers team (23 points). Overall, Murray shot 11-24 from the field while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing for five assists.

LeBron James led the Lakers with 10 assists and four steals. He also had nine rebounds and two blocked shots. However, pro basketball's all-time career scoring leader scored just 22 points on 9-19 field goal shooting, including 0-6 from three point range; when James' three point field goal attempts outnumber his free throw attempts (four) that is not a good ratio for the Lakers.  James' basketball IQ is widely praised, and it does seem like he has a photographic memory regarding details of plays that happened in basketball games--but if he is so smart then why does he keep jacking up three pointers when, at least at this stage of his career, he is a lousy three point shooter? The contrast between his efficiency on shots in the paint versus his shots from beyond the three point arc suggests that a James three pointer may be the dumbest, least efficient shot that the Lakers can attempt.

Austin Reaves also scored 22 points, and he added five assists. Rui Hachimura finished with 21 points on 8-10 field goal shooting. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 14 rebounds and four blocked shots, but he scored just 18 points on 4-15 field goal shooting. 

It is a good thing for the Lakers that they "found something" in game one that would make a difference in game two. Otherwise, they would have never "held" Nikola Jokic to 23 points, a game-high 17 rebounds, and a game-high 12 assists. Yes, Jokic shot just 9-21 from the field, but the defensive attention that he demanded opened up opportunities for all of his teammates, most notably Murray. If Jokic's name were Curry then we would be hearing about Jokic's "gravity." Instead, after game one the media narrative was that the Lakers could shut down Jokic by using Hachimura as Jokic's primary defender. The narrative after game two will probably be that the Nuggets "held serve" and that the Lakers are in great position to tie the series with two home wins (the Lakers may very well tie the series, but they still must win at least one game in Denver to advance, so objectively they are not in great position unless they take a 3-2 lead heading back to L.A. for game six). After the Nuggets win this series, the narrative will be that the Lakers would have won it all if only they had traded Russell Westbrook sooner so that the "tremendous trio" the Lakers acquired for him had more time to build chemistry.

The Westbrook trade has given Coach Darvin Ham remarkable roster flexibility. He can bring Jarred Vanderbilt off of the bench to score zero points in 10 minutes--Vanderbilt's role in the Lakers' game one loss to the Nuggets--or he can start Vanderbilt and then pull him from the lineup after Vanderbilt has a -10 plus/minus number in just 17 minutes in game two. D'Angelo Russell's brilliance has been so breathtaking that it is difficult to know which statistic to look at first: maybe you love the -41 plus/minus number for the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, or perhaps you prefer the laser-like precision of his 7-19 (.368) field goal shooting in those two games. Ham has the option of keeping Malik Beasley on the bench for the whole game, or inserting him in the lineup if either team obtains a 20 point lead. Clearly, my assessment of the Westbrook trade was way off target. I wrote, "Beasley and Vanderbilt are solid rotation players, but it is bizarre to state with a straight face that trading away a future Hall of Famer who always plays hard for a gunner and two solid rotation players represents a significant upgrade." Beasley played himself out of Ham's rotation, and Vanderbilt has played less than 20 minutes in each of the Lakers' past seven games--including four games during which he played 11 minutes or less--so I was wrong to call Beasley and Vanderbilt "solid rotation players" because their own coach does not view them that way. 

The "experts" told us that the Lakers need "lasers" (as James refers to great outside shooters), so it is wonderful for the Lakers that their masterful midseason moves provided them with more lasers than possessed by NASA and the U.S. military combined. Never mind the Lakers' 8-30 (.267) three point shooting in game two; if you take out James' fine 0-6 three point shooting the rest of the Lakers shot 8-24 (.333) from three point range, and that is the kind of marksmanship that delivers championships. 

It's not like Murray is running circles around all of the Lakers' guards because of his superior basketball talent and athleticism, nor should one foolishly assume that having a 6-3 athletic guard who always plays hard and who pushes the ball in transition to create easy scoring opportunities would have helped the Lakers in this series. Who needs Russell Westbrook when you can get rid of him and have James fire up three pointers, Russell miss from all areas, Vanderbilt hesitant to shoot from anywhere, and Beasley available for those crucial garbage time minutes? Not only do the Lakers have just the right kind of roster to win a playoff series against an elite team, they are well positioned for the future; as soon as James retires, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt are going to rule the league for the next 10 years.

Postgame press conferences across the sports universe provide unintentional comedy. You have to love the reporters who grill Davis and James with tough questions that begin with phrase like, "Not to make excuses for you..." It is not necessary to make excuses for Davis and James; they are quite proficient at making up their own excuses without any assistance. Also, if you are a journalist and the best question that you can ask begins with "Talk about..." then maybe you should consider a different career: the players and coaches do not need to sit in front of room full of journalists to be asked to "talk about" the game; the players and coaches could just show up and start talking without any prompting if that is the best prompting they are going to receive.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:05 AM

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Thursday, May 18, 2023

Heat Seize Control in Record-Setting Third Quarter, Take Game One From Celtics in Boston

Game one of the Eastern Conference Finals was going according to plan for the Boston Celtics--until suddenly it wasn't. The Celtics led the Miami Heat by as many as 13 points in the first half, and they enjoyed a 66-57 advantage at halftime. In the third quarter, Max Strus (13 points) and Jimmy Butler (12 points) matched the Celtics' output as Miami set a franchise playoff record for points scored in a quarter (46) while taking a 103-91 advantage heading into the final stanza. The Celtics cut the deficit to four points before falling, 123-116. 

Jimmy Butler can deny that "Playoff Jimmy" exists but--unlike other legends such as Bigfoot and the Loch Ness monster--we have indisputable video proof that "Playoff Jimmy" is real. Butler scored a game-high 35 points, dished for a team-high seven assists, grabbed five rebounds, and pilfered a game-high six steals. Cue up the clip of Butler screaming "Tobias Harris over me?!" while considering not just this Miami win over Boston but also Boston's demolition of Butler's former team, the Philadelphia 76ers. The 76ers are not better without Butler, and the Heat are certainly better with Butler.

Butler led the way at both ends of the court, but he had plenty of help, including Bam Adebayo (20 points, eight rebounds, five assists), Max Strus (15 points on 6-10 field goal shooting), Gabe Vincent (15 points on 4-6 field goal shooting), Caleb Martin (15 points on 6-11 field goal shooting), and Kyle Lowry (15 points on 6-12 field goal shooting).

Jayson Tatum led the Celtics with 30 points on 9-17 field goal shooting. He also had seven rebounds. Jaylen Brown added 22 points, nine rebounds, and five assists. Tatum and Brown combined to launch 38 of their team's 81 field goal attempts. Four other Celtics scored in double figures. It is difficult to rationally argue that Tatum and Brown disappeared, or that the Celtics did not get enough other players involved, but in a society that favors hot takes over logical analysis we will be fed a variety of overreactions. In the next 48 hours or so, we will be subjected to the following headlines/narratives, in no particular order:

1) Joe Mazzulla could not coach his way out of paper bag with a machete, a bazooka, or a nuclear bomb.

2) The Boston Celtics lack the necessary discipline and focus to win a championship.

3) The Tatum-Brown duo should be broken up.

4) The lead that the Celtics' lost proves that this team has deep, unsolvable problems.

It is amazing how much the "experts" can learn from just one playoff game in a seven game series! One might think that we will not know the narrative and the lesson(s) to be learned until after someone wins the series, but any "expert" will laughingly tell you how naive and foolish it is to think that way. Clearly, for every game there must be a coach who is an idiot, a team that is fatally flawed, and a pairing of star players that can never, ever work. After all, Tatum is 25 and Brown is 26, so if they don't win a championship this season their window is not just closed but sealed shut for eternity.

Side note: I will never understand why great NFL quarterbacks are praised for how many fourth quarter comeback wins that they have but NBA teams are criticized for coming from behind to win playoff series. Every comeback led by Tom Brady fueled his legend, but every playoff series comeback authored by Tatum's Celtics supposedly proves how flawed the Celtics are. I have yet to see anyone ask, "Why did Tom Brady's teams fall behind so many times?" Quarterbacks are praised for winning, but they get special praise for winning after they were losing.  

Obviously, it would have been better for the Celtics to win game one, and it is worth noting that game one winners generally advance--but game one winners that advance do so either because they are the superior team (regardless of whether their superiority was widely recognized before the series began) or because significant injuries tilted the outcome. Here, it is reasonable to believe that the Celtics are superior to the Heat, and that this superiority will be demonstrated over the course of the series; this is not the NCAA Tournament, which features flawed teams facing each other in a one and done format.

Butler and the Heat deserve full credit for another great win during an impressive 2023 playoff run, but their success in this one game is not a permanent blot on the collective or individual resumes of the Celtics.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:40 AM

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Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Nuggets Take 1-0 Lead Over Lakers as Jokic Authors Historic Triple Double

Nikola Jokic led the Denver Nuggets in scoring (34 points on 12-17 field goal shooting), rebounding (game-high 21 rebounds), and assists (game-high 14 assists) as Denver raced to a 30-14 first quarter lead en route to a 132-126 win over the L.A. Lakers in game one of the Western Conference Finals. Jokic now has two career postseason 30 point-20 rebound-10 assist triple doubles; there have been two other such postseason performances in NBA history--one by Wilt Chamberlain, and the other by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Jokic also has the most career postseason 30 point-15 rebound-10 assist games in NBA history (four), breaking a tie with Oscar Robertson and LeBron James. 

Jokic performed at a historically great level, but he was not a one man show. Jamal Murray scored 31 points on 12-20 field goal shooting, as each of Denver's starters scored at least 12 points. The Nuggets dominated the Lakers 47-30 on the boards.

The Lakers rallied behind their top three players--Anthony Davis, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves--to outscore the Nuggets 72-60 in the second half, but that was not enough to avoid defeat. That trio combined to score 55 second half points. Overall, Davis scored 40 points on 14-23 field goal shooting while grabbing 10 rebounds and blocking two shots. James added 26 points, 12 rebounds, and nine assists. Reaves had 23 points and eight assists. Rui Hachimura provided 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting in 28 minutes off of the bench; he did not have a single rebound, but using him as the primary defender versus Jokic so that Davis could be a defensive roamer played a role in the Lakers' second half run. Hachimura had a +10 plus/minus number, while every Laker starter had a negative plus/minus number.

The Lakers' late game rally will no doubt inspire much commentary about how the Lakers "found something" and will "make some adjustments" to set up a game two win. "If the Nuggets barely won despite Jokic having a historic triple double, then the Lakers are in great position, particularly considering how well the Lakers contained Jokic in the fourth quarter" is an example of how that narrative will be expressed. When analyzing playoff basketball--or any kind of basketball--it is important to distinguish between anomalous performances and performances that are the result of exploiting matchup/skill set advantages. For example, Jokic has demonstrated for quite some time that he can put up "big" triple doubles (as opposed to 10-10-10 stat lines that may be valuable but are not necessarily dominant); believing that Rui Hachimura is going to shut down Jokic for the rest of the series is not just very optimistic: it is delusional. On the other hand, there is no body of evidence supporting the hope/notion that Anthony Davis is going to consistently be aggressive against elite level competition without suffering an injury or becoming lackadaisical. In short, one can be fairly confident about predicting the broad contours of Jokic's game two performance, but one has little idea what to expect from Davis. If Davis is great again, then the Lakers will have a chance to win, but Davis being great two games in a row would be surprising, to say the least.

The good news for the Lakers is that they traded future Hall of Famer Russell Westbrook for the "tremendous trio" of D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley. Surely those players had a great game one and will be major contributors throughout this series, right? Let's check out the boxscore:

Russell: eight points on 4-11 field goal shooting, game-worst -25 plus/minus number. He was the only Laker starter who did not play a minute in the fourth quarter. 

Vanderbilt: zero points on zero field goal attempts in 10 minutes. 

Beasley: DNP-CD (Did Not Play--Coach's Decision).

If someone argues that trading Westbrook freed up minutes for Austin Reaves, that may be true--but that truth says more about either Coach Darvin Ham's rotations or LeBron James' influence on those rotations than it does about Westbrook's skills or impact. If someone argues that Rui Hachimura was a valuable midseason acquisition, that is true--but Hachimura was acquired before Westbrook was traded, so the Lakers could have benefited from Hachimura's skills while also keeping Westbrook (who plays a different position than Hachimura, and who performed well alongside Hachimura when both played for the Washington Wizards).

If someone argues that trading Westbrook for Russell, Vanderbilt, and Beasley improved the Lakers then that person is either not watching the games with understanding, or that person is so committed to an anti-Westbrook narrative that reality cannot possibly make a dent on the fantasy world that he has constructed.

I picked the Nuggets to win this series, and nothing that happened in game one caused me to regret that prediction. Based on what I have seen of the Lakers, I would add that if the Lakers win this series it is much more likely that they will do so after cutting Russell's minutes and role than that they will do so with Russell having a positive impact. It is obvious what Coach Ham thinks of the three players who the Lakers acquired for Westbrook: Beasley rarely leaves the bench, Vanderbilt now gets cameo appearances, and Russell is--at best--the third guard behind Reaves and Dennis Schroeder, and it would not be shocking for Russell to fall behind Lonnie Walker IV in the rotation as well.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:50 AM

6 comments

Sunday, May 14, 2023

Boston Versus Miami Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Boston (57-25) vs. #8 Miami (44-38)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Miami can win if…Jimmy Butler is by far the best player in the series, and if the Heat not only slow down the Celtics' multiple playmakers but also find a way to generate more offense than they did during the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Butler averaged 24.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 6.0 apg as the Heat beat the New York Knicks in six games in the second round. Overall, Butler is averaging 31.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, and 5.4 apg in the 2023 playoffs.

Bam Adebayo is putting up his usual numbers--18.7 ppg and 9.7 rpg versus the Knicks, 18.1 ppg and 9.2 rpg overall during the playoffs. Adebayo plays more like a forward, but the Heat use him as an undersized center.

The Heat have survived in the playoffs without the injured Tyler Herro--their third leading scorer during the regular season (20.1 ppg)--by receiving timely contributions from a host of players, including Gabe Vincent (11.5 ppg, 4.8 apg during the playoffs), Max Strus (10.9 ppg), Caleb Martin (10.8 ppg), and Kyle Lowry (10.1 ppg, 4.5 apg). Former All-Star Lowry has thrived coming off of the bench and keeping the second unit organized.

Boston will win because…the Celtics have more top level talent, more depth, and more elite round (Conference Finals and NBA Finals) playoff experience. This series will be competitive and hard fought, but the Celtics have the superior team. The Heat's first two playoff opponents did not exploit the Heat's lack of size and lack of offensive firepower, but the Celtics are well-equipped to take advantage of those weaknesses.

In a 112-88 win versus Philadelphia to eliminate the 76ers, Jayson Tatum broke Stephen Curry's recently set game seven record by scoring 51 points. Tatum is averaging 28.2 ppg, 10.6 rpg, and 5.2 apg in the 2023 playoffs. The word "superstar" is thrown around too casually, but Tatum has earned that designation not only by being a consistently high level regular season performer but by repeatedly coming up big in the playoffs to lead the Celtics to back to back Conference Finals appearances and four Conference Finals appearances in the past six seasons.

Jaylen Brown is the perfect complement to Tatum. Brown scores, rebounds, passes, and defends. He does not do any of those things quite as well as Tatum, but he does all of those things at an All-Star--if not All-NBA--level. 

Al Horford and Robert Williams are formidable paint defenders who play differently. Horford relies on size, guile, and technique. Williams possesses those qualities to some extent, but his best attribute is his tremendous athleticism.

Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon is an asset at both ends of the court, as is Derrick White. Marcus Smart won the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he can provide timely scoring.

Other things to consider: The Celtics have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times in the past seven years, and this is the second year in a row that they are facing the Heat in this round. In my preview of last year's Boston-Miami series, I discussed the historical significance of a star or duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals appearances:

A star player or star duo leading a team to at least four Conference Finals will likely be remembered decades later, particularly if that team wins at least one championship during that run. In my time following the NBA, such teams include Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers (seven Conference Finals appearances, one NBA championship--including two CF appearances and one NBA championship playing alongside Moses Malone), Larry Bird's Boston Celtics (eight CF appearances, three NBA championships), the Magic-Kareem L.A. Lakers (10 CF appearances, five NBA championships--including one CF appearance after Kareem retired), Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons (five CF appearances, two NBA championships), the Jordan-Pippen Chicago Bulls (eight CF appearances, six NBA championships), the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (five CF appearances, three NBA championships; Kobe then made three CF appearances and won two NBA championships without Shaq), the ensemble Pistons (six CF appearances, one NBA championship), the James-Wade Heat (four CF appearances, two NBA championships), the James Cavaliers (four CF appearances, one NBA championship; James also made two CF appearances in his first tour of duty with the Cavaliers), and the ensemble Warriors (six CF appearances, three NBA championships--including three CF appearances and two NBA championships with Kevin Durant leading the team).

Much of what I wrote in this section in my preview of the Boston-Miami matchup in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals still applies. Although the Heat were not great defensively during the 2023 regular season and their overall 2023 defensive numbers in the playoffs are not great, they showed versus both Milwaukee and New York in the first two rounds of the 2023 playoffs that they can get key stops. The Heat remain mediocre offensively like they were last season, and size still bothers them. The Heat pushed the Celtics to seven games last season and the seventh game was close, but the Celtics led wire to wire en route to a 100-96 win.

Boston will win in six games.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:32 PM

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Jayson Tatum Scores Game Seven Record 51 Points as Celtics Roll Over Listless 76ers, 112-88

Jayson Tatum, much criticized for his slow starts and inconsistent performances in Boston's second round series versus Philadelphia, used his closing spurt in game six as a springboard to an epic 51 point outburst in game seven, leading the Celtics to a 112-88 rout of the 76ers while breaking Stephen Curry's 50 point game seven record set 13 days ago. Tatum shot 17-28 from the field (including 6-10 from three point range) while grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds and passing for a team-high five assists. He showed off his well developed, all-around offensive game, scoring from all three levels while committing no turnovers in 41 minutes. Tatum also played excellent defense. He put on a master class of how a superstar plays elite level basketball in a win or go home game. The mentoring that Tatum received from Kobe Bryant was very evident during this performance. It is pathetic that when Tatum revealed years ago that he sought guidance from Bryant some "stat gurus" asserted that Bryant would ruin Tatum's game by teaching him the supposedly outdated midrange game instead of the three point shot/free throw game preferred by "stat gurus."

Jaylen Brown also played very well, finishing with 25 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocked shots. At the 8:26 mark of the second quarter, James Harden received a flagrant foul after elbowing Brown in the face hard enough to draw blood but--amazingly--Brown did not need a wheelchair and he was able to keep playing. Brown made both free throws, and the Celtics closed the second quarter with a 28-17 run to take a 55-52 halftime lead. 

In the third quarter, Tatum outscored the 76ers 17-10, the other Celtics scored 16 points, and it was a wrap heading into the fourth quarter with the Celtics leading 88-62. Anonymous sideline sources texted me and stated that James Harden led a "1, 2, 3 Cancun" chant during a huddle but I have not been able to confirm that with "Woj" (sorry, but I couldn't resist trying to break news like "Woj," Chris Haynes, and Dave "Vampire" McMenamin).

Two players who did not excel during this game are the 2023 NBA regular season MVP Joel Embiid, and James Harden, the player who Daryl Morey ranks as a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. Embiid scored 15 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight rebounds, two assists, and four turnovers, almost accomplishing a "Harden" (a new statistical category comprised of a playoff game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made). Anonymous sources texted me and said that two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic has filed theft charges and requested that the authorities retrieve his stolen 2023 MVP trophy from Embiid (sorry, but I just cannot resist trying out my "breaking news" chops). 

Harden's 2023 concert tour concluded with a 3-11 grand finale, and a "Harden" as he finished with more turnovers (five) than field goals made. Even when the 76ers were ahead of Brooklyn 2-0 in the first round, I noted that a statistic to watch this postseason will be Harden's turnover/field goals made ratio, pointing out that in Harden's previous six playoff games he had made 32 field goals while committing 30 turnovers. Yes, a player who was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team and was paid $33 million this season regularly struggles to amass more field goals made than turnovers in the games that matter most. Harden's nine total points and his second half disappearing act (three points, 1-3 field goal shooting, two turnovers after his team trailed by just three points at intermission) are exactly what should be expected from him based on what he has delivered throughout his playoff career, particularly in elimination games

Tobias Harris led the 76ers with 19 points, and Tyrese Maxey added 17 points, but that was not nearly enough to make up for how poorly Embiid and Harden played. I was baffled to listen to the usually sensible Greg Anthony and Sam Mitchell make excuses for Embiid and Harden by asserting that they do not have enough help. If Embiid and Harden put up 70-80 combined points on efficient shooting and the 76ers lost then perhaps that argument would hold water, but after this game no one should say anything about the supporting cast. 

The 76ers' stars failed--period, point blank, end of discussion.

It should be an interesting offseason for the 76ers. Last year after "experts" praised the Embiid-Harden duo, I wrote, "I am not sure yet who will win the Eastern Conference, but I would be very surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference; it is much more likely that within the next two to three years Harden will be sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Philadelphia, while Embiid continues to battle injuries." It is unfortunate that Coach Doc Rivers, the only key member of the 76ers who has won a championship, may take the fall for Morey's foolishness and the disappearing acts of Embiid and Harden. Other than begging his players to play harder--a recurring theme during Rivers' tenure with the 76ers--what magical "adjustment" is Rivers supposed to make? The "experts" love talking about adjustments, but those who understand basketball know that so-called adjustments are overrated

After the game, Embiid said, "Me and James can't win alone." Really? That is the league MVP's assessment after a game seven during which he and Harden combined to score 24 points on 8-29 field goal shooting with nine turnovers, the treasured combo "Harden" with more turnovers than field goals made. Anyone who compared the Embiid-Harden duo to Moses Malone-Julius Erving or any other all-time great duo should have his press credential revoked and his sanity evaluated.

The book Five Star Basketball includes some of the best lectures given at the legendary basketball camp, and is a must-read for players who want to improve and for fans who want to better understand the game; instead of listening to "Screamin' A," Wilbon and the other talking heads/screaming heads who do not understand basketball,  turn off the pregame/postgame shows (except for TNT's shows, of course) and read this book. One of the lectures is by Hubie Brown. Brown declared, "Don't tell me how hard you've got it. I want to know what you got. I showed you six different things today to give you something with the pressure on. Can you score in the lane? Do you understand that taking the hook from your hip instead of from your chest keeps you from getting it blocked? Do you understand the pin when a guy fronts you in the post? Do you understand how to attack the trap?"

Joel Embiid and James Harden showed us what they have, and it is evident that they do not have the all-around games needed to lead a team to victory in the second round of the playoffs. The Celtics crowded Embiid and Harden, and neither player had countermoves beyond overdribbling, turning the ball over, or making long, loping crosscourt passes that did not threaten the defense.

This is yet another chapter in Daryl Morey's amazing career that consists of maintaining employment as a top basketball executive for a decade and a half despite not accomplishing anything particularly special.

Before the Celtics won game seven, at least one Philadelphia writer suggested that a 76ers loss could lead to the Process 2.0. Anyone who received a check for the book "Tanking to the Top" should refund all proceeds on the basis of profiting based on false pretenses. The current version of the 76ers has not reached the top, and if they ever do it will not be from tanking because tanking does not work. It is reasonable to assert that the 76ers need to make changes, but maybe they should learn from the fiascos of the past decade and try to build a good foundation instead of ripping everything apart to lose intentionally.

The 76ers are difficult to ignore because of the outlandish stupidity of how the team was built via tanking and then believing that the Embiid-Harden duo would be great in the playoffs, but the Celtics deserve praise for staying the course through the ups and downs not just of this series but of the past several years. They have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times in the past seven seasons. Anyone trying to understand the distinction between a fluky Conference Finals appearance (hello Houston's James Harden, Atlanta's Trae Young, and Portland's Damian Lillard) versus sustained and sustainable excellence should just watch some game tapes of the Tatum-Brown Celtics to become educated. Rookie Coach Joe Mazzulla, the youngest coach in the NBA, is not perfect--no one is perfect--but he replaced the disgraced Ime Udoka on short notice and he has done an excellent job overall of leading this team to the NBA's version of the Final Four.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:24 PM

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