2024-25 Western Conference Preview
The Dallas Mavericks flipped the script after their 2022-23 late season collapse to reach the 2024 NBA Finals as the Western Conference's fifth seeded team. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving proved to be a dynamic duo, while midseason acquisitions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington made a huge difference. Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II formed an excellent one-two punch in the paint.
The Oklahoma City Thunder posted the Western Conference's best record last season before falling to the Mavericks 4-2 in the second round. I hesitate to pick the Thunder as the Western Conference favorite for two reasons: (1) The Thunder tanked for two seasons (22-50 record in 2021-22, 24-58 record in 2022-23), and there is a lot of evidence that tanking does not work; (2) even after the acquisition of Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder are still a small team that could be pushed around in the paint.
After winning the 2023 NBA title, the Denver Nuggets have lost some key rotation players--including Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope--and it has become fashionable to discount them as legitimate championship contenders. However, any team with a healthy Nikola Jokic is a serious threat, and I expect Russell Westbrook to thrive on a team that has a more serious approach than the teams for which he recently played.
The Minnesota Timberwolves did not rest on their laurels after making their first Western Conference Finals appearance since 2004; they traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. It will be interesting to see if Randle can stay healthy and accept a second option role behind Anthony Edwards. DiVincenzo adds range shooting and toughness.
Although the Western Conference is very deep, there is a separation between the top four teams and the rest of the very good teams. The 2025 Western Conference Finals will likely feature two of the four teams mentioned above.
This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on
their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:
1) Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic is a wondrous offensive player who will never be a defensive stopper but who--like previous Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki--is learning how to avoid being a liability on the less glamorous side of the court. Last season, Doncic won his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 33.9 ppg while also setting career highs in assists (9.8 apg, second in the league), three point field goal percentage (.382), and triple doubles (21). Much like his Coach Jason Kidd used to be, Doncic is an elite rebounder (9.2 rpg last season) who can get the ball off of the defensive glass and go. Doncic made the All-NBA First Team for the fifth straight year, and he finished third in regular season MVP voting. Injuries limited him at times during Dallas' long playoff run, but he still averaged 28.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, and 8.1 apg during the postseason. In his first NBA Finals, Doncic produced 29.2 ppg, 8.8 rpg, and 5.6 apg, but he also had nearly as many turnovers (23) as assists (28).
Kyrie Irving embraced the second option role and was highly productive, averaging 25.6 ppg, 5.2 apg, and 5.0 rpg. His production dipped during the playoffs (22.1 ppg, 5.1 apg, 3.7 rpg), but the Mavericks would not have reached the NBA Finals without his timely contributions.
The difference between the 2024 Mavericks and the 2023 Mavericks was the midseason acquisitions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Gafford teamed with rookie Dereck Lively II to provide significant paint presence at both ends of the court. Gafford led the Mavericks in blocked shots in the regular season (1.9 bpg) and the playoffs (1.5 bpg). Washington ranked third on the team in playoff scoring (13.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.6 rpg).
The main thing that the Mavericks lacked during the NBA Finals was a reliable outside shooting option to take the pressure off of Doncic and Irving. Enter Klay Thompson, who the Mavericks signed away from Golden State. Thompson is not the defensive standout that he used to be, but he can still spot up in the corner and drain three pointers.
The Mavericks' 2024 playoff run may look fluky because they the Mavericks were only the fifth seed, but if they stay healthy then they will likely earn a much higher seed with Gafford and Washington in the fold for all 82 games.
2) Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder may eventually be the first tanking team to legitimately contend for an NBA title. Last season they clinched the number one seed in the Western Conference (on tiebreaks) with a 57-25 record before losing to the underdog Mavericks in the second round. The Thunder attempted to address their lack of size by signing former Knick Isaiah Hartenstein, who joins his sixth team in seven NBA seasons.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the centerpiece of Oklahoma City's attack. He finished second in regular season MVP voting after averaging 30.1 ppg (third in the league), 6.2 apg, 5.5 rpg, and 2.0 spg (second in the league). Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second straight All-NBA First Team selection, and he came in seventh in Defensive Player of the Year voting. At 26, he is the elder statesman in a core rotation that includes five players who are 25 or younger.
The Thunder traded Josh Giddey, who fell out of the rotation during the playoffs, to Chicago for Alex Caruso, who has earned consecutive All-Defensive Team selections after being a member of the Lakers' 2020 championship team.
I am skeptical of the long term prospects of teams that tanked, but there is no denying that this is a very good team.
3) Denver Nuggets: As long as the Nuggets have prime Nikola Jokic they will be dangerous; in the 2024 Olympics, Jokic led a Serbian squad with just three other players with NBA experience to the brink of a win versus a Team USA squad stacked with future Hall of Famers, including four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Yes, the NBA is different from FIBA, but Jokic's triple threat ability to score, rebound, and pass enables him to have a significant impact any time he steps on the court.
The Nuggets have reason to be concerned about Jamal Murray, who did not look great for Canada during the Olympics. He has not played in more than 65 regular season games since 2019--but if Murray is healthy and productive then the Nuggets have as good of a one-two punch as any team.
Signing Russell Westbrook is an under the radar move that could pay huge dividends for a team that has lost some key rotation players (Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) since winning the 2023 NBA title. Westbrook is a favorite target for some media members, but he is a perfect fit for this team because the Nuggets are a no-nonsense squad with a championship mindset.
4) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves have only won a playoff series in two years--2004 and 2024--and both times they reached the Western Conference Finals before being eliminated. It would have been understandable to just run it back and try to win two more playoff series, but instead the Timberwolves traded Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. The deal not only gives the Timberwolves more frontcourt flexibility and versatility but it also relieves a looming salary cap issue that could have become problematic by the end of Towns' huge contract.
Of course, fans do not care about the salary cap or the dreaded "second apron" restrictions affecting teams that exceed the salary cap; fans care about winning games and winning championships. Did the blockbuster deal bring the Timberwolves closer to making their first NBA Finals appearance? The Timberwolves used their size to overpower the defending champion Nuggets in the second round; now they are smaller, but also quicker and deeper. Randle is a talented wild card: he is a three-time All-Star and two-time member of the All-NBA Team, but he owns a .344 playoff career field goal percentage.
I can't say for sure at this point that the trade made the Timberwolves worse, but I will be surprised if it made them better, and I don't expect them to reach the Western Conference Finals this season.
5) Phoenix Suns: Since losing in the 2021 NBA Finals, the Suns have fired two coaches and remade their roster, but they have only won two playoff series in the past three years. Kevin Durant is still a very productive player at age 36, but since he left Golden State in 2019 he has a 2-4 playoff series record. The Kevin Durant-Devin Booker-Bradley Beal trio was supposed to be a "super team," but last season Beal missed 29 games, and Booker missed 14 games.
On paper, the Suns look very good, but the on court reality is that when the playoffs roll around the Suns tend to lack the necessary health and cohesion to beat elite teams in a seven game series.
6) Houston Rockets: In his first year with Houston, Coach Ime Udoka transformed the Rockets from a 22-60 doormat to a 41-41 team on the rise. Yes, the Rockets improved their roster by adding veterans Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, but in a vacuum those two players are not worth 19 extra wins; the Rockets jumped from 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 28th in points allowed to fifth in defensive field goal percentage and 14th in points allowed. Those numbers suggest that (1) Udoka has a very good defensive system and (2) the players completely bought in to how Udoka asked them to play.
In his third season, Alperen Sengun emerged as an All-Star caliber player, averaging 21.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg. Injuries forced him to miss the final 18 games of last season, but he is expected to make a healthy return for this season.
7) Memphis Grizzlies: Last season, the Grizzlies went 6-3 in the nine games that Ja Morant played in before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. In the previous two seasons, the Grizzlies posted 56 wins and 51 wins. It is true that their roster has changed significantly since 2021, but if Morant stays healthy then this team could be very dangerous. Morant's career playoff scoring average is 27.3 ppg, and he led the NBA in playoff assists in 2022 (9.8 apg), so he is not afraid of the bright lights--he just needs to get his off court life under control, and he needs to stay healthy.
Jaren Jackson Jr. won the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year award, and he has twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2022, 2023). Last season, Jackson's scoring average jumped to a career-high 22.5 ppg, but his blocked shots average dropped from a career-high 3.0 bpg to 1.6 bpg. Rookie Zach Edey may replace some of the physical presence that Steven Adams used to provide, and Edey could either from a twin towers tandem with Jackson or their minutes could be staggered so that Memphis always has a player on the court who impacts play in the paint.
8) Sacramento Kings: After posting the Western Conference's third best record in 2022-23 (48-34), the Kings went 46-36 last season but missed the playoffs because so many other Western Conference teams improved. After the season, the Kings shipped out Harrison Barnes and acquired DeMar DeRozan in a three team deal involving the Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs. The 35 year old DeRozan is an excellent clutch performer, and he shows no signs of aging: he averaged 24.0 ppg last season with shooting percentages and free throw attempt rates above his career norms.
Mike Brown earned the 2023 NBA Coach of the Year award for his exceptional work with the Kings after inheriting a team that ranked 29th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage. Those rankings moved to 25th and 29th respectively in Brown's first year at the helm, and improved to 17th and 21st last season. A continued upward progression on defense plus DeRozan's clutch time scoring should add up to a return to postseason play for the Kings.
The teams that finish seventh
through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Western Conference is very deep, and some of the teams listed below that I do not expect to qualify for the playoffs are not that much worse than the teams listed above.
The LeBron James-Anthony Davis L.A. Lakers will always have the 2020 "bubble" title and the 2023 NBA Cup, but their resume as a duo also includes two first round losses plus missing the playoffs in 2022. James undermined Coach Darvin Ham and then hand-picked his podcast partner J.J. Redick as Ham's successor. Redick has proven that he can befriend James and give snarky answers to legitimate questions from media members, but his coaching experience is limited to coaching his son in AAU basketball; it will be interesting to see how well the combination of Redick's overt arrogance and lack of meaningful coaching experience work out for the Lakers, who pretend to have championship ambitions but in reality will be fortunate to qualify for the playoffs. There will be a lot of scrutiny regarding how the Lakers utilize second round pick Bronny James, who averaged 4.8 ppg in his only college season but has the benefit of being James' son (and being the son of the man who hired Coach Redick); as a human interest story, it is cool that LeBron and Bronny have already played together in an NBA preseason game and will, presumably, soon play together in an NBA regular season game--but Bronny has been given a roster spot instead of earning it and that is not a good thing for the Lakers in the long run.
The New Orleans Pelicans may be a sleeper pick for some people, but the Pelicans have not won a playoff series since 2018, when Anthony Davis was the team's best player. Their regular season record has improved in each of Coach Willie Green's three seasons but they have sandwiched two first round losses around a non-playoff season. The Pelicans acquired versatile guard Dejounte Murray, but they traded away centers Jonas Valanciunas and Cody Zeller and they are apparently committed to playing small and at a fast pace. They might want to look at the list of NBA champions to see how many teams won a title by playing small. In the competitive Western Conference, this undersized and injury-prone team will probably be a Play-In Tournament team that falls just short of making the playoffs.
The Golden State Warriors struggled versus the plus-.500 teams last season, which is not surprising for a team that has won just one playoff series since beating the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals--and that championship run is the only time that the Warriors advanced past the second round since Kevin Durant left the Warriors after the 2018-19 season. Breaking up the "Splash Brothers" by trading Klay Thompson to the Dallas Mavericks marks the end of an era that saw the Warriors win four NBA titles in an eight year span. Stephen Curry is still a great player but he is not going to lead the Warriors to another title--or even a playoff berth--without a strong supporting cast around him punishing teams for trapping him while also providing a foundation of strong defense.
Free agent Paul George left the L.A. Clippers to sign with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Clippers will miss George's scoring, playmaking, and defense--but they will not miss his documented tendency to disappear during the playoffs.
With Coach Ty Lue at the helm and the newly hired Jeff Van Gundy as the
de facto defensive coordinator, the Clippers will enjoy a schematic
game plan advantage in most games, but that will not be enough to overcome Kawhi Leonard's propensity to be injured and James Harden's propensity to choke at the most important moments.
The San Antonio Spurs tanked to obtain the right to draft Victor Wembanyama, and then Wembanyama had an excellent rookie season that resulted in--drum roll, please--the Spurs winning 22 games, exactly the same number of games they won while tanking away the 2022-23 season. "Stat gurus" swear that they follow science, yet they are blind to the decades of evidence proving that tanking does not work. The Spurs signed 39 year old Chris Paul to mentor Wembanyama, because clearly a player with a 12-15 playoff series record who has reached the Western Conference Finals twice in 19 seasons is just the guy to lead the Spurs into contention. There is no doubt that Paul will be the best post-feeder on this team--an admittedly low bar to clear--and he has wisdom that can benefit young Wembanyama, but Paul would be a better fit as an assistant coach than as a point guard.
Danny Ainge described Utah's defense last season as "horrible" and conceded that the "personnel was not good enough. That's on me." The Jazz did not make any significant personnel additions in the offseason, so based on Ainge's candid assessment there is little reason to think that the Jazz will be a playoff team this season.
The tanking Portland Trail Blazers hit rock bottom last season with a 21-61 record that is the franchise's worst ever excluding years two and three after the franchise's founding in 1970. The path from this abyss just to respectability is far from clear. This is yet another example of tanking at its finest.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked five of the eight 2024 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2023: 6/8
2022: 5/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2024 Total: 118/152 (.776)
Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings
posted by David Friedman @ 2:43 AM
2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview
The uncrowned champions crowned themselves in dominant fashion: after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals five times in a seven year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-23) with just one NBA Finals appearance and no championships to their credit, the Boston Celtics cruised to a 64-18 regular season record in 2023-24 before embarking on a 16-3 playoff run that culminated in the franchise's first NBA title since 2008. The Celtics will have to survive the first portion of the 2024-25 regular season without the services of Kristaps Porzingis--who is recovering from left lower leg surgery--but they seem poised to mount another strong playoff run.
The New York Knicks have emerged as the biggest Eastern Conference threat to Boston's dominance. After posting a 50-32 regular season record--good for second place in the Eastern Conference, and the franchise's best win total since 2012-13--the injury-riddled Knicks lost a hard-fought second round series to the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks will miss center Isaiah Hartenstein (who joined the Oklahoma City
Thunder), particularly because Mitchell Robinson will not be available at the start of
the season due to injury, but the Knicks upgraded their roster during the offseason. First, they traded a package including three players and five first round draft picks to Brooklyn for Mikal Bridges, and then they made a blockbuster deal to acquire Karl-Anthony Towns from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, and other considerations. Towns fills the void at center, and appears to be a better chemistry fit than Randle because Towns has demonstrated that he is fine with being the second option on offense, a concession that it is not clear that Randle would be willing or able to make.
The Indiana Pacers feature a potent offense orchestrated by All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, but until they improve their porous defense they will be more of a spoiler than a contender--a worthy foe to any team in a playoff series, but a team unlikely to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again.
The perennially highly touted Philadelphia 76ers have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson led them to the 2001 NBA Finals. After tanking for several years, they have spent several more years trying to find the right combination of players to support the oft-injured Joel Embiid. My evaluation of the 76ers' playoff prospects is not changed by their acquisition of Paul George, who is almost as big of a playoff choker as his former L.A. Clipper teammate (and former 76er) James Harden; the 76ers most assuredly
have not "tanked to the top," and they will not reach the top until they purge their organization of the flawed thinking promulgated by the "stat gurus" who have been running the show for the better part of the past decade.
The Milwaukee Bucks won the 2021 NBA championship, but they have not advanced past the second round since that time and have lost in the first round in each of the past two seasons. Giannis Antetokounmpo played in just three of Milwaukee's five playoff games in 2023, and he missed all six of Milwaukee's playoff games last season. Antetokounmpo has played in 73 games or less in each of the past six regular seasons, and it is fair to wonder if his hard-charging style has taken a toll on his body. Firing Coach Mike Budenholzer prior to last season and dealing Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard are two moves that gutted Milwaukee's once elite defense. During the 2020-21 championship season, the Bucks ranked second in rebounding and fifth in defensive field goal percentage, and in Budenholzer's final season with the Bucks (2022-23) the Bucks led the league in rebounding and ranked second in defensive field goal percentage; last season, the Bucks ranked ninth in rebounding and 14th in defensive field goal percentage.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:
1) Boston Celtics: The Boston Celtics authored one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history, but there seems to be a reluctance to acknowledge their earned status as a great team, perhaps because the Celtics fell short so many times in recent years. The Celtics fired at will from three point range--averaging a league-high 42.5 three point field goal attempts per game--to the delight of "stat gurus" and to the dismay of more traditional basketball analysts, but it is important to understand that mad bombing is not why the Celtics won the championship. Much like when the Golden State Warriors won championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022 with a staunch defense that provided a sound foundation supporting all of the headline-grabbing three point shooting, the Celtics had an elite defense that ranked first in blocked shots, second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed. It should be emphasized that the Warriors ranked first in defensive field goal percentage in 2015 and 2017, third in 2018, and second in 2022; last season, the Warriors ranked fourth in three point field goals attempted but ninth in defensive field goal percentage and 18th in points allowed.
Jaylen Brown averaged 23.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, and 3.6 apg during the regular season to earn his third All-Star selection, but he was left off of both the All-NBA Team and the All-Defensive Team. Brown scored a playoff career-high 23.9 ppg on playoff career-high .516 field goal shooting en route to capturing both the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP.
Brown played very well in both of those playoff series, but Jayson Tatum led Boston in scoring in the Eastern Conference Finals (30.3 ppg to Brown's 29.8 ppg) and the NBA Finals (22.2 ppg to Brown's 20.8 ppg). Scoring is not everything, but Tatum also led the Celtics in rebounding (7.8 rpg) and assists (7.2 apg) during the NBA Finals after pacing the Celtics in Eastern Conference Finals rebounding (10.3 rpg) while ranking second in assists (6.3 apg) behind Derrick White (6.5 apg). Tatum made the All-NBA First Team for the third straight year, and he finished sixth in regular season MVP voting after averaging 26.9 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 4.9 apg. Tatum remains the team's best all-around player, and he forms a powerful duo with Brown.
Celtics fans should send letters of appreciation to the Milwaukee Bucks for trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard. Holiday ended up in Boston, where he became a key member of the squad, and Lillard played a major role in Milwaukee's disappointing season.
Kristaps Porzingis will miss the start of the season due to injury, and he has battled injuries throughout his career, but assuming that he returns at some point the Celtics have no weaknesses and should mount a strong run at becoming the first back to back NBA champions since Golden State in 2017-18.
2) New York Knicks: Jalen Brunson led the Knicks to the second round for the second consecutive season after the Knicks had not advanced that far since the 2012-13 season. Brunson's emergence as an All-NBA Second Team member and fifth place
finisher in MVP voting has changed this franchise's trajectory after
a decade of being stuck in the mud. Brunson set career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg, fourth in the league) and assists (6.7 apg) before lifting his numbers to 32.4 ppg and 7.5 apg in the playoffs. He scored 40 points in four straight playoff games, including the series clinching win versus Philadelphia and the series opening win versus Indiana.
The Knicks are a physical but undersized team that plays tough defense. They struggle to score efficiently. Last season after the Knicks lost Julius Randle to injury, Brunson was the only player on the roster who could consistently create shots for himself and others. Swapping Randle for Karl-Anthony Towns not only balances the Knicks' roster by adding some much needed size but also provides some range shooting that will open up the floor for Brunson. Newly acquired Mikal Bridges should help the Knicks at both ends of the court, and soften the blow of losing Donte DiVincenzo in the Randle-Towns trade.
Health is the biggest question mark for the Knicks. Assuming that they avoid significant injuries, the only other concern would be that even with Towns they are still a bit small.
3) Indiana Pacers: Two-time All-Star and 2024 NBA assist
leader Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an offense that led the league in
scoring (123.3 ppg), field goal percentage (.507), and assists (30.8
apg), but the Pacers will not win a championship until they improve their
defense, which ranked last in points allowed (120.2 ppg) and defensive
field goal percentage (.496). The slightly built Haliburton has played in 69 games or less in three of his first four NBA seasons, so his durability is questionable.
Midseason acquisition Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring down the stretch (21.3 ppg in 41 regular season games with the Pacers) and in the playoffs (21.6 ppg). His versatility, championship experience, and ability to create his own shot in crunch time were all critical factors during Indiana's run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Most of the Pacers' key rotation players are younger than 30, so this team has the potential to improve if they don't rest on last year's laurels, and focus on becoming better defensively.
4) Philadelphia 76ers: In my 2023-24 Eastern Conference preview, I posed the following questions to Daryl Morey:
- Do you still believe that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan?
- Do you regret staking your reputation on the hope that Harden would outperform his horrific elimination game resume (to which Harden added yet another awful stat line last season)?
- Do
you still believe that your application of "advanced basketball
statistics" confers a tangible advantage for your team even though the playoff results for your Houston teams were statistically no better than average and your Philadelphia teams have yet to advance past the second round?
Those questions proved to be pertinent, and they foreshadowed yet another disappointing season for the 76ers. The disgruntled Harden forced his way out of Philadelphia before last season began, and Harden's season ended in typical fashion as he posted his familiar "concert tour" numbers. After the 76ers lost in the first round, Morey consulted his spreadsheets, and he convinced himself that 34 year old Paul George--whose playoff choking resume is similar to Harden's--will provide the necessary spark to finally lift Joel Embiid past the second round of the playoffs.
If Embiid and George stay healthy--a big "if" considering their recent injury histories--then they can form a powerful trio with Tyrese Maxey and win more than 50 regular season games, but the crucial test for Morey's latest attempt to form a super team will happen in the playoffs. Embiid has a 5-7 career playoff series record, and he has shot worse than .470 from the field in nine of those 12 playoff series; during the playoffs, he has consistently been injured, inefficient, or both. Until that changes, the 76ers are going nowhere fast, regardless of how many regular season wins they stack up.
5) Milwaukee Bucks: In 2021, the 26 year old Giannis Antetokounmpo won his first NBA title and first NBA Finals MVP after previously capturing back to back regular season MVPs. The Bucks had posted the best record in the Eastern Conference in 2019 and 2020, and it appeared that Antetokounmpo and his squad were poised to dominate the East--if not the entire league--for the next several years. Instead, the Bucks failed to advance past the second round in each of the next two seasons, leading management to conclude that a shakeup was necessary to prevent Antetokounmpo from leaving for greener pastures.
However, in the wake of the departures of Coach Mike Budenholzer and two-way performer Jrue Holiday, the Bucks collapsed defensively and lost 4-2 to Indiana in the first round. Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to injury, but during the regular season the Bucks struggled against the Pacers even with Antetokounmpo. Damian Lillard, who was acquired in exchange for Holiday, posted the third worst field goal percentage of his career (.424) as his scoring average dropped nearly 8 ppg.
Coach Doc Rivers joined the team in mid-season after the firing of rookie Coach Adrian Griffin, so perhaps the Bucks will be better after having a full training camp with Rivers at the helm--but Antetokounmpo's recent inability to be healthy for the playoffs and Damian Lillard's 4-9 career playoff series record do not inspire much confidence that the Bucks will be a championship contender.
6) Orlando Magic: The young Magic are a team on the rise, and after reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2020 they seek to win a playoff series for the first time since the Magic reached the NBA Finals in 2010. The top four players in Orlando's rotation last season (based on mpg averages)--Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and Wendell Carter, Jr.--are each younger than 25. Newly acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope brings veteran experience, tenacious defense, and championship savvy.
Banchero built on his 2023 Rookie of the Year campaign by improving his scoring from 20.0 ppg to 22.6 ppg while also lifting his field goal percentage (.427 to .455) and three point field goal percentage (.298 to .339). Considering his size and athletic gifts, he should have a big impact on the boards, but he averaged just 6.9 rpg in each of his first two seasons.
The Magic are a stout defensive team that needs to improve their offensive efficiency after scoring just 100.3 ppg on .420 field goal shooting in a seven game first round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
7) Cleveland Cavaliers: The Cavaliers fired Coach J.B. Bickerstaff despite the fact that the 2023-24 squad matched reasonable expectations by finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference standings before losing in the second round to the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers went 22-50 in their first full season under Bickerstaff, improved to 44-38 the next season, went 51-31 in year three, and then posted a solid 48-34 record last season. They reached the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, and last season they won a playoff series for the first time since 2018. That was also the franchise's first playoff series win without LeBron James since 1993. It is not clear why the front office believes that the team will have
significantly better results under new Coach Kenny Atkinson, who is a
good coach but not a clear upgrade over Bickerstaff.
The Cavaliers signed Donovan Mitchell to a three year contract extension in July after he became just the second Cavalier to average at least 25.0 ppg, at least 5.0 rpg, and at least 5.0 apg in the same season (not surprisingly, the other Cavalier to match that feat is LeBron James). Mitchell's 29.6 ppg playoff scoring average last season is the sixth highest in Cavaliers history (minimum of 10 games), and casual fans may be surprised to learn that Mitchell owns the seventh highest career playoff scoring average (28.1 ppg) in ABA/NBA history, trailing only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson, Kevin Durant, Jerry West, and LeBron James.
Mitchell is a dynamic offensive player and the Cavaliers are a solid defensive team, but in their two most recent playoff runs they struggled to score efficiently even with Mitchell posting gaudy numbers. Last season, the Cavaliers finished fourth in the Eastern Conference, but the three teams right behind them in the standings--Orlando, Indiana, and Philadelphia--each had 47 wins and each look better on paper this season than they did last season. The Cavaliers could very well post a comparable win total to last season and slip three spots in the standings.
8) Miami Heat: In the past five years, the Heat have reached the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023), and lost in the first round twice (2021, 2024) while also losing once in the Eastern Conference Finals (2022). They are a hard-nosed team that is good defensively, anemic offensively, and weak on the boards because they are undersized. Erik Spoelstra is one of the league's top coaches, but Jimmy Butler is 35 years old and has not played more than 65 games in a season since 2017. "Playoff Jimmy" may be a thing, but if regular season Jimmy does not show up then the Heat will have a low playoff seed and get bounced again in the first round. Even if everything breaks right for this team, it is difficult to picture the Heat beating any of the top four Eastern Conference teams in a playoff series if those teams are even close to full strength.
The teams that finish seventh through
10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In
Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will
qualify for the
playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
The Atlanta Hawks went 36-46 last season, and then traded Dejounte Murray for Dyson Daniels, E.J. Liddell, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller, and two future first round draft picks. The Hawks ranked 21st in field goal percentage, 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and 28th in points allowed, numbers that are unlikely to improve as long as Trae Young gets the most minutes, takes the most shots, and runs the show. His 25.7 ppg and 10.8 apg last season are an excellent example of empty calorie individual numbers that do not equate to team success.
The Chicago Bulls added Josh Giddey but subtracted Alex Caruso and DeMar DeRozan. The Bulls have reached the playoffs once (2022) in the past seven seasons, and that trend of missing the playoffs figures to continue in 2024-25.
Rookie Coach Jordi Fernandez has his hands full with a Brooklyn Nets roster that reflects the franchise's current plan of going young and stockpiling draft picks (also known as tanking).
The Toronto Raptors are in full rebuild mode, as no rotation players from the 2019 championship team remain on the roster. They are not necessarily in full tank mode, because they have already drafted a talented young player--Scottie Barnes--who they hope will have franchise-changing impact.
The Charlotte Hornets are all buzz and no sting, ranking 30th (last) in rebounding, 28th in scoring, 27th in defensive field goal percentage, and 26th in field goal percentage.
The Washington Wizards have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs.
Former Cleveland Coach J.B. Bickerstaff stayed in the Central Division and will try to jump start the sputtering Detroit Pistons, who posted a league-worst 14-68 record last season after posting a league-worst 17-65 record in 2022-23.
**********
Note:
I correctly picked seven of the eight 2024 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2024 Total: 117/152 (.770)
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 2:42 AM
