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Wednesday, December 04, 2024

Assessing the Lakers After the First 22 Games of the J.J. Redick Era

It is an NBA truism that after the first 20 games or so of a season you can reasonably assess how good each team is. The Lakers just played their 22nd game of the 2024-25 season, so let's take stock of the early results of the J.J. Redick era. The L.A. Lakers started last season 13-9--a .591 winning percentage--and they finished with a 47-35 record (.573) to rank eighth in the Western Conference before losing 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lakers are 12-10 after one of LeBron James' old teams took his current team to the woodshed tonight, as the Miami Heat waxed the Lakers, 134-93. Tyler Herro poured in a game-high 31 points and had a +30 plus/minus number as every Heat starter had a plus/minus number of at least +22. James led the Lakers with 29 points and he had a -21 plus/minus number as every Lakers starter had a plus/minus number of -20 or worse.

The Heat set a franchise single game record with 42 assists, they tied the franchise single game record with 24 three pointers, and they posted the third largest margin of victory in franchise history. The Heat shot 52-90 (.578) from the field, including 24-47 (.511) from three point range.

No NBA team should lose by 40-plus points, and that goes double for a team featuring two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who had just eight points on 3-14 field goal shooting). It would be one thing if this game were an aberration, but this is the fourth time this season that the Lakers lost by at least 25 points. The 10-10 Heat are far from being a powerhouse, but the listless Lakers simply did not play hard or smart.

After last season, the Lakers fired Darvin Ham and replaced him with J.J. Redick because Redick is purported to be a basketball genius (despite the fact that he has no prior coaching experience outside of coaching his sons in youth league play). Redick is the fourth coach the Lakers have had during the seven year LeBron James era in L.A.; with James running the franchise, the Lakers have won one championship while missing the playoffs twice and losing in the first round twice. James won two of his four NBA titles during his four seasons in Miami, the only franchise that did not give him free reign to hire coaches and make personnel decisions, but he won just two NBA titles in his other 17 seasons running the show during two stints in Cleveland and his current stint in L.A.

The Lakers' best season by far with James was 2019-20, when they went 52-19 in the COVID-19 shortened season before winning the "bubble" championship. That squad ranked fourth in points allowed, eighth in defensive field goal percentage, and ninth in rebounding--but just 21st in three point field goal percentage. The notion that LeBron James must be surrounded by three point shooters is demonstrably false. The 2020 Lakers ranked first in field goal percentage because they ranked third in two point field goal percentage, with Dwight Howard shooting .732 from two point range, followed by JaVale McGee (.640), James (.564), and Davis (.546). James averaged 13.1 two point field goal attempts per game and 6.3 three point field goal attempts per game, while Davis led the team with 14.2 two point field goal attempts per game. Davis averaged just 3.5 three point field goal attempts per game. The 2020 Lakers averaged 56.7 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking ninth in the league.

So far this season (not including tonight's blowout loss), the Lakers rank 21st in points allowed, 26th in defensive field goal percentage, and 27th in rebounding. Redick was supposed to provide a great advantage with his analytically driven offensive strategies, but the Lakers rank 17th in scoring, ninth in two point field goal percentage, 10th in field goal percentage, and 18th in three point field goal percentage. The Lakers average 51.9 two point field goal attempts per game, ranking 14th in the league.

In short, Redick's Lakers have a mediocre offense and an atrocious defense. They have terrible rebounding numbers, and they often don't play hard. There is zero evidence that Redick is providing any kind of strategic advantage or that he is effective at motivating players to give maximum effort. 

I don't place much value on the NBA Cup, but it should be noted that Ham's Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup while Redick's Lakers failed to advance past group play in this season's NBA Cup.

It may have been a heartwarming story when Bronny James played alongside his father LeBron James on Opening Night, but the harsh reality is that Bronny is probably not good enough to deserve a G League roster spot, let alone an NBA roster spot; he has averaged 5.0 ppg on .211 field goal shooting in two G League games this season. By hiring the unqualified J.J. Redick and drafting the unqualified Bronny James, the Lakers' front office sent a clear message that this season is about appeasing LeBron James and not about winning games, so it should not be surprising that the Lakers are not playing hard or smart.

There are good reasons to believe that the Lakers are worse than their record. They had a -2.6 point differential before tonight's debacle. Seven of the Lakers' 12 wins are against sub-.500 teams New Orleans, Philadelphia, Sacramento, Toronto (twice), and Utah (twice). The Lakers only have seven games left against those teams, and they have yet to face Boston, Dallas, Golden State, Houston, or New York, teams that they will play a total of 14 times.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:59 PM

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Monday, December 02, 2024

Lou Carnesecca Radiated Joy and Humor During His Hall of Fame Coaching Career

Lou Carnesecca, who passed away on Saturday November 30 at the age of 99, spent his entire Hall of Fame coaching career in New York City. Carnesecca had a 526-200 record in 24 seasons as St. John's coach, leading the Johnnies to postseason play each year--including winning the 1989 NIT title and reaching the 1985 NCAA Final Four. He tried his hand at the professional level for three seasons, leading the ABA's New York Nets to a 114-138 record before returning to St. John's. 

Carnesecca was a great coach, but he knew how to put competition in proper perspective: "Victories, defeats, they'll soon be forgotten, but the relationships that you build with the people you come into contact with will last a lifetime. So, it’s important we remember that. The game is important, but it's only a small part of your life."

He downplayed his considerable role in the success that his teams consistently enjoyed: "I don't do anything. If I could coach, I would coach my guy to score a basket every time. That would be my strategy. When you're young, you think you're a genius. You think you know everything about coaching basketball. Hey, let me tell you something about basketball. I'm coaching the Nets, see. I got Rick Barry and he takes us to the ABA championship [series]. The next year, I got the same players, same plays, only I don't got Rick Barry. And we lose [54] games."

Carnesecca's coaching mentor was Joe Lapchick, who posted a 326-247 record from 1947-56 with the New York Knicks, reaching the playoffs in each of his first eight seasons before resigning midway through his ninth season. Lapchick coached St. John's from 1936-47 and 1956-65, finishing with a 334-130 record that included four NIT titles. Carnesecca worked as an assistant coach for Lapchick before succeeding him in 1965, and the successful program built by Lapchick did not miss a beat.

Like many college coaches before and after him, Carnesecca followed the siren call--and the money--of pro basketball, jumping to the Nets in 1970. Carnesecca, who believed that pro teams should not draft college players who still had eligibility, refused to sign Julius Erving when Erving was an underclassman at the University of Massachusetts, and he then coached against Erving when the Nets defeated Erving's Virginia Squires 4-3 in the 1972 Eastern Division Finals. Rookie Erving averaged 30.7 ppg and 21.0 rpg in that series, prompting Carnesecca to say of Erving, "He's the most exciting pro ever. He creates. It just flows out of him. He has great imagination on the court. You can talk about this guy like a poet. He's a poet, an artist."

Carnesecca will forever be associated with the Big East Conference, which is an interesting historical twist considering that he opposed the conference's creation because he thought that it would force St. John's to tread a tougher path to the NCAA Tournament. The three-time Big East Coach of the Year (1983, 1985-86) led St. John's to five Big East regular season titles (1980, 1983, 1985-86, 1992). The Big East was arguably the toughest conference in the country in the mid-1980s, and Carnesecca more than held his own while competing against Hall of Fame coaches leading teams stacked with Hall of Fame players.

If you followed basketball at any time from the 1960s through the 1990s, you will never forget Carnesecca's demonstrative sideline demeanor, his garish sweaters, and how consistently good his teams were. He was a colorful character, but his charisma should not obscure the fact that he was a highly successful coach for a long time.

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posted by David Friedman @ 10:46 PM

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