NBA's Coaching Carousel Keeps Spinning as Denver Fires Michael Malone
In a season notable for the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade and the firing of respected veteran coaches Mike Brown and Taylor Jenkins, the Denver Nuggets added to the list of surprising moves by firing Michael Malone, who coached the team to the franchise's first championship just two years ago. The Nuggets could finish as high as third in the West, so firing the coach with the most wins (471) in franchise history and the most wins (438) in the NBA since 2016-17 is stunning, even considering the contentious nature of Malone's relationship with General Manager Calvin Booth, who the Nuggets also fired. Assistant coach David Adelman, son of long-time NBA coach Rick Adelman, is now Denver's interim head coach.
Media members and fans often make impulsive and subjective evaluations of coaches (and players). I evaluate coaches based on how well their teams play defensively, because defense requires (1) the correct schemes based on the team's personnel and based on matchups, and (2) players buying into whatever the coach is selling. I also evaluate coaches based on the extent to which a team meets or exceeds reasonable expectations. A coach with a roster capable of winning 25 games with a bottom third defensive ranking did a good job if his team finished 30-52 with a top 15 defensive ranking, but a coach with a roster capable of winning 45 games with a top 15 defensive ranking did a bad job if his team won 40 games while ranking 20th in defense (assuming that the teams in this comparison both had reasonably healthy rosters). I evaluate the decision to fire a coach based not only on the above factors but also based on the likelihood of finding a replacement who can do better than the fired coach.
Prior to this season, I picked Denver to be the third best team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are currently in a four way tie for fourth with a 47-32 record (the Nuggets are fifth based on tiebreakers), but the standings are so bunched together that Denver could finish anywhere between third and eighth. Denver's second best player, Jamal Murray, has been limited by injuries for most of this season, and he has missed the last five games due to injury, with the Nuggets losing four in a row after winning the first game that he missed. Until we see how healthy the Nuggets are during the playoffs (or the Play-In Tournament if they drop below sixth in the standings) and how far they advance, it is too soon to say if they have met reasonable expectations. The Nuggets rank 14th in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in points allowed; when they won the 2023 NBA championship they ranked 20th and eighth respectively in those categories, but their roster had more plus defenders at that time. It does not seem likely that a coach is available who will win 438 games and at least one NBA title in the next eight years, so firing Malone with three games to go seems like a rash, irrational move.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the other two high profile coach firings.
The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start this season. A 13-18 record is not great, but that winning percentage (.419) is better than the full season winning percentages of every Kings team from 2009-18. Brown won the 2023 Coach of the Year award after leading the Kings to a 48-34 record in his first season with the team, and they went 46-36 last season to post their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005-06. A little over a month after firing Brown, the Kings received Zach LaVine in a three team deal during which they sent De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs. The Kings are 26-22 under Doug Christie, and they are clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference. The Kings rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in points allowed after ranking 21st and 17th respectively in those categories last season. Before the season, I ranked the Kings as the eighth best team in the Western Conference. It is fair to say that they underperformed early in the season under Brown, but it is not clear if that sample size of games was sufficient to make the decision to fire Brown, nor is it clear that Christie or whoever else the Kings may bring in next season will be more successful than Brown was.
The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins, who posted a 250-214 record with the Grizzlies from 2019-25, including 44-29 this season. Jenkins led the Grizzlies to two Southwest Division titles (2022-23) and three playoff appearances (2021-23) even though the team's most prominent player--Ja Morant--has never played in more than 67 games in a season (a number that Morant only reached during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign, when he won the Rookie of the Year award). Jenkins is the franchise's career wins leader, and he ranks second in franchise history in career winning percentage while notching the franchise's first (and only) division titles. The Grizzlies went 8-11 after the All-Star Game before firing Jenkins, and they are are 3-3 after replacing him with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who has no prior NBA head coaching experience. Their defense has not been good recently but overall they rank third in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed (which is not as bad as that may sound because they are second in points scored and thus enjoy a nearly +5 ppg point differential). I ranked Memphis as the seventh best team in the Western Conference, and they are currently tied with Denver and two other teams for fourth.
Of the three teams that fired their coaches this season, only the Kings could be singled out for not meeting reasonable expectations, but it is fair to ask (1) if Mike Brown was given enough time and opportunity to right the ship and (2) if either Doug Christie or Doug Christie's replacement can do better long term than Brown. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are who we thought they were, to hearken back to the famous Dennis Green rant; one wonders what their owners think they are/should be, and what those teams will look like not just in the next two weeks but in the next seasons without the services of the excellent coaches who they summarily dismissed.
The NBA is experiencing an influx of new money; the league just signed a record-setting media rights deal, and many teams have young owners who are flush with cash and who think that possessing billions of dollars makes them experts on everything, including roster construction and coaching strategies. In Phoenix, Mat Ishbia has fired two coaches and done a complete roster overhaul in less than three years, and the Suns have crashed from winning 64 games and reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 to being a 35-44 Draft Lottery team this season.
Labels: Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Michael Malone, Mike Brown, Sacramento Kings, Taylor Jenkins
posted by David Friedman @ 10:07 PM
