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Thursday, December 19, 2024

NBA and NBPA Jointly Announce New All-Star Game Format

The NBA All-Star Game has become an embarrassment and a travesty, culminating in the 2024 fiasco during which the teams combined to score 397 points while attempting 168 three point shots and just five free throws. A strong Commissioner would have announced right after that game that--due to lack of player interest in participating in a meaningful game--the All-Star Game will be discontinued; sure, the NBPA would have been outraged because many players have contract clauses promising them bonuses for being selected as an All-Star, but a strong statement by the Commissioner would have put the players on blast and put the onus on the players to do better. 

Unfortunately, the NBA does not have a strong Commissioner like David Stern. The NBA is stuck with Adam Silver, who is a weak Commissioner, as I recently noted

Throwing more cash at players who act entitled and spoiled will not make things better. Radical measures are needed: if All-Stars refuse to play hard, then cancel the All-Star Game and render null and void any contract bonuses related to being selected as an All-Star; if players think that the season is too long to play all 82 games, then slash the schedule to 60 games, and reduce player salaries proportionately to make up for the lost TV revenue. We all know that Commissioner Adam Silver--who prides himself on getting along with the players--would never do such things, which is why we all also know that the NBA that we love is going to continue to decline until the owners suffer financial losses as a result of selling a second-rate product.

Instead of fixing the All-Star Game problem, Silver--as I expected and predicted--is giving the All-Stars more money and begging them to play hard; the NBA and NBPA jointly announced yet another change to the All-Star Game format:

For the first time, the NBA All-Star Game will feature a mini-tournament with four teams and three games.  Two teams will meet in one semifinal (Game 1), and the remaining two teams will meet in the other semifinal (Game 2).  The winning teams from Game 1 and Game 2 will advance to face each other in the championship (Game 3).  For each game, the winner will be the first team to reach or surpass 40 points.

Each team will have eight players and be named for a TNT NBA analyst.  The 24 NBA All-Star selections will be divided evenly into three teams, with the rosters drafted by TNT’s Inside the NBA commentators and honorary team general managers Charles Barkley, Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith.  The three analysts will make their respective picks for Team Chuck, Team Shaq and Team Kenny live on TNT in the NBA All-Star Draft, which will be conducted on Thursday, Feb. 6 just before the network’s doubleheader that night.

The fourth team will be the winning team from the championship game of the Castrol Rising Stars, the annual showcase of top first- and second-year NBA players and NBA G League standouts, which will be played on Friday, Feb. 14 during NBA All-Star 2025... 

The four teams participating in the NBA All-Star Game will compete for a prize pool of $1.8 million, with each player on the championship-winning team receiving $125,000, each player on the second-place team receiving $50,000 and each player on the third- and fourth-place teams receiving $25,000.

The first thing that comes to mind after reading the above paragraphs is that when the format cannot be explained simply the format is too convoluted. The NBA All-Star Game format used to be "The best players from the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference--as selected by the fans and the players--will play one game under normal rules." The NBA All-Star Game did not have the intensity of game seven of the NBA Finals, but it also did not feature players running up and down the court shooting crazy shots without playing a lick of defense. 

The second thing that comes to mind about the "new and improved" NBA All-Star Game format is that each player on the winning All-Star team received $100,000 last year, while the players on the losing team received $25,000 each; in other words, as a reward for embarrassing themselves and the league by not taking the All-Star Game seriously, the players are being given a larger All-Star game prize pool.

The new format is gimmicky, and is yet another example of just how clueless and weak Adam Silver is. A strong Commissioner would not "fix" the All-Star Game by turning it into something completely different; a strong Commissioner would either convince the players that it is in their best interest to take the All-Star Game seriously, or he would discontinue the All-Star Game: in 1998, David Stern replaced the Slam Dunk Contest with the WNBA-NBA 2Ball competition (which is not to say that 2Ball was great, but the point is that when the Slam Dunk Contest declined Stern got rid of it--and when he brought it back in 2000, Vince Carter had one of the most memorable performances in the event's history).

The players run the league now, and at this rate they are going to run it into the ground; ratings are down this season, which is the first sign that the golden goose of huge media rights deals may not live forever: if the ratings continue to decline, then the price for the rights fees will be cut, which will in turn lower the salary cap and lower salaries. Maybe that won't happen, or maybe today's players don't care about that possibility because their goal is to get as much cash as they can get now regardless of what happens later--but for those of us who love the game and love the history of the game, it is disheartening to watch the current version of the NBA that is marred by a general lack of competitive spirit, tanking, load management, and excessive reliance on high variance three point shooting

In an unrelated yet related story, the NBA is reportedly considering doubling the length of the NBA Cup from four games of group play to eight games. The possible unintentional comedy that will not be funny that could result from lengthening the NBA Cup is that if the league lengthens it too much then some players may start engaging in load management during the event! Maybe the NBA Cup could even have its own All-Star teams and All-Star Game so that the players have yet another opportunity to receive more cash for not playing hard!

Here is a novel concept for the NBA to consider: have an 82 game regular season as a qualifier for a four round playoff system that culminates by crowning a league champion.That is not nearly as convoluted as the new NBA All-Star Game format or the NBA Cup format, but if the players are willing to actually try then it just might work.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:39 AM

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Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Bucks Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Championship Game

Giannis Antetokounmpo authored a dominant triple double with game-high totals in points (26), rebounds (19), and assists (10) while leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 97-81 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game. Antetokounmpo shot 10-19 from the field, and he also accumulated three blocked shots plus two steals. Antetokounmpo earned the NBA Cup MVP award, which was based on his play throughout the NBA Cup tournament and not just in the Championship Game. Damian Lillard scored 23 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. chipped in 13 points each. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the Thunder with 21 points, but he shot just 8-24 from the field, including 2-9 from three point range. Jalen Williams scored 18 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein had 16 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and he ripped down a team-high 12 rebounds; he scored 10 first quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting, but he was quiet offensively the rest of the way.

I predicted that Antetokounmpo would dominate and that the Bucks would win. As I have repeatedly said for many years, size matters in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is a tough matchup for any team, but the small-ball Thunder are particularly ill-equipped to challenge him. His paint dominance forced the Thunder to send defensive help, which in turn created wide open three pointers that his teammates drained. Many of the headlines for game stories about this contest will probably focus on the Bucks shooting 17-40 (.425) from three point range, but to summarize Milwaukee's win that way is to miss the larger point (pun intended) that the bigger Bucks physically dominated the Thunder; the Bucks won the rebounding battle 52-43 and held the Thunder to 29-86 field goal shooting (.337), including 5-32 (.156) from three point range. However, the NBA Cup Championship Game statistics--both for individual players and for the teams--do not officially count as regular season statistics or as playoff statistics: the only tangible proof that this game happened is that ABC broadcast it, Commissioner Adam Silver handed out the championship and MVP trophies at the end, and each player on the winning team's roster received more than $500,000. 

The Thunder entered this game leading the West while boasting a historic 12.1 ppg point differential, plus league-leading averages in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed. Their defense versus the Bucks was not bad--they held the Bucks 16 points below the Bucks' scoring average--but they could not make three pointers and they would not stop taking three pointers. The way that the Thunder sputtered to just 31 second half points on 11-42 field goal shooting (.262) is exhibit A for what is wrong with the modern NBA: the sport is supposed to be basketball, not "jack up as many three pointers as possible." Yes, the Bucks deserve credit for playing excellent defense and exploiting their size advantage at both ends of the court, but in this game the Thunder outscored the Bucks in the paint 34-28. Although it is not realistic to think that the Thunder could or should have attempted a shot in the paint on every possession, their ratio of 32 three point attempts to 39 paint shot attempts was as stubborn as it was suboptimal; in the good old days, NBA teams regularly scored more than 100 points without attempting any three pointers, let alone attempting dozens of three pointers, so the notion that in order to score a lot of points it is necessary to match the other team three point shot for three point shot is foolish. Contrary to what some people will say, the Bucks did not win this game because they made more three pointers than the Thunder, nor did the Bucks win because they attempted more three pointers than the Thunder; the Bucks won this game because their size advantage overwhelmed the Thunder, and one of the consequences of that was that Bucks other than Antetokounmpo had wide open three point shot attempts.

A made three point shot is worth more than a made two point shot, but all missed shots are worth zero points. "Stat gurus" not only fail to understand that basic math, but they also ignore or minimize the reality that attacking the paint puts pressure on the opposing defense, can lead to free throw attempts, and better enables the offensive team to maintain good court balance for getting back on defense. If it were truly as simple as "Threes are worth more than twos" then of course the best strategy would be to attempt nothing but three pointers (which, sadly, is the direction in which the NBA seems to be headed), but correct basketball strategy is multidimensional. Looking at a broader view beyond this game, this is not just about how many three pointers are being attempted but also about when and how three pointers are being attempted. As mentioned above, the Bucks created high percentage, good rhythm three pointers by attacking the paint and then swinging the ball to the open man after the Thunder trapped Antetokounmpo. In contrast, after scoring 16 paint points in the first quarter to enjoy a 28-27 lead, the Thunder did not attack the paint enough. Sure, the Bucks deserve credit for using their size effectively in the paint, but the solution to that is not to settle for three pointers but rather to continue to attack the paint. It is easy for the smaller team to get frustrated and just settle for long jumpers, but that is not championship level basketball; playing small is no excuse for abandoning the paint.

Rivers said at halftime, "We have to win the three point shooting, and that's what we're doing." The Bucks opened the second half with back to back three pointers to establish their largest lead of the game up to that point, 57-50. I would argue that what mattered was not so much that the Bucks won the three point shooting, but rather how they did it: they attacked the paint as the first option, and shot open threes as the second option, which is much different than just jacking up three pointers without first probing the defense.

The Thunder are a much better team than they showed on Tuesday night, but this game showcased the difference between a seven game series and a winner take all format, and it highlighted how dangerous it is to rely on high variance three point shooting without having any backup plan.

Last year, the L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup. The Pacers seemed to get a boost from their strong NBA Cup run, and they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014, but the Lakers lost in the first round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how well this year's NBA Cup Finalists do in the tournament that really matters.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:07 AM

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Sunday, December 15, 2024

NBA Cup Semifinals Recaps and NBA Cup Championship Game Preview

The Milwaukee Bucks will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in Tuesday night's NBA Cup Championship Game after defeating the Atlanta Hawks and Houston Rockets respectively yesterday in the semifinals in Las Vegas. Each player on the the team that wins the NBA Cup will receive $500,000, but the Championship Game itself is neither fish nor fowl from a statistical standpoint--the numbers do not count for the regular season or for the playoffs, which is an odd way for the NBA to treat such a supposedly important event.

The Bucks trailed the Hawks 83-82 heading into the fourth quarter, but rode Giannis Antetokounmpo's all-around greatness to victory as the two-time regular season MVP scored 10 points, grabbed five rebounds, dished for three assists, and had a sensational block of Clint Capela's dunk attempt with the Bucks clinging to a 103-98 lead with 2:35 remaining. Antetokounmpo finished with a team-high 32 points on 10-15 field goal shooting, a game-high 14 rebounds, a team-high nine assists, and a game-high (tied with Capela) four blocked shots. Antetokounmpo joined Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the only two Milwaukee players to have 100 games with at least 30 points, at least 10 rebounds, and at least .600 field goal shooting. Antetokounmpo made the NBA Cup All-Tournament Team last year, and he is a lock to make it this year as well. Damian Lillard added 25 points on 8-21 field goal shooting while also contributing seven assists, six rebounds, and three steals. Trae Young poured in a game-high 35 points on 9-18 field goal shooting and 14-17 free throw shooting, and he distributed a game-high 10 assists. It is difficult to read the 14-13 Hawks: they are 2-0 against Cleveland, 2-0 against New York, 1-1 against Boston--but 0-2 against Chicago, and 0-2 against the pathetic Washington "Wheeze-hards."

The Rockets led the Thunder for most of the first half, but the Thunder's stout defense wore down the Rockets in the second half as the Thunder outscored the Rockets 70-54 to cruise to a 111-96 win. The Thunder shot 36-80 (.450) from the field while holding the Rockets to 35-96 (.365) field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 8-21 field goal shooting and 14-15 free throw shooting while also snaring eight rebounds and dishing for six assists. Isaiah Hartenstein had a strong game with 21 points and eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and Lu Dort added 19 points and a team-high nine rebounds. Other than Hartenstein, the Thunder lack size, but they are an athletic team that plays with high energy. Amen Thompson led the Rockets with 19 points off of the bench, but no other Rocket scored more than 14 points.

The 20-5 Thunder have the best record in the Western Conference, while the surging 14-11 Bucks have the sixth best record in the Eastern Conference despite starting the season 1-6. The Thunder looked like a championship contender from the start of this season, while the Bucks just now seem to be rounding into form, although their perimeter defense and their depth are still questionable. The Thunder have the statistical profile of a championship team, ranking first in defensive field goal percentage (.424), first in point differential (12.0), and first in points allowed (103.5 ppg). They also lead the league both in forcing turnovers and fewest turnovers committed, and those extra possessions help compensate for their middle of the pack 16th ranking in rebounding. Lack of size (which impacts rebounding, of course) is the main concern for the Thunder. The Bucks have won 12 of their last 15 games, and have moved up to sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.451), 14th in point differential (1.1), and 13th in points allowed (111.9 ppg). Lillard will always be a defensive liability, but the Bucks protect the paint well, ranking sixth in blocked shots. Rebounding is a concern: the Bucks rank just 22nd, and other than Antetokounmpo (11.5 rpg) and Bobby Portis (7.7 rpg) no Buck is averaging more than 5 rpg. 

The NBA Cup, as TNT's Kenny Smith mentioned, is more like the NCAA Tournament than the NBA playoffs; the best team generally wins the NBA championship, but in the NBA Cup a team can get hot for one game and knock out a superior team. For that reason, Smith picked the Bucks to beat the Thunder, even though he rates the Thunder as the better overall team. The Bucks are the only undefeated team (6-0) in NBA Cup games this season, and I agree with Smith's pick; specifically, I expect Antetokounmpo to dominate: in his only game versus the Thunder last season, he scored a game-high 30 points and snatched a game-high 19 rebounds in just 34 minutes as the Bucks won, 118-93. Khris Middleton, who recently returned to the lineup this season on a minutes restriction, had a triple double (11 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) in that rout, and he performed well in the Bucks' other game versus the Thunder last season (18 points, seven rebounds, six assists), but Antetotokounmpo and Lillard both did not play in that 18 point loss.

It is interesting to note that Milwaukee assistant coach Darvin Ham led the L.A. Lakers to the inaugural NBA Cup title last season before the Lakers fired him and replaced him with J.J. Redick. The amazing thing about Redick--who has coached the Lakers to a tie for 10th-11th (out of 15 teams) in the West so far with a 13-12 record--is that, at least according to him, the Lakers have had the right game plan every single game, only to fall short because the players simply don't adhere to his wise teaching and superior basketball knowledge; the Lakers have not once been outcoached this season--just ask Redick, and he'll be happy to tell you, and there is no doubt that this message resonates well with his players, particularly coming from a coach whose prior experience consisted entirely of coaching AAU kids. There is nothing that NBA players like more than being talked down to by a coach who has never won anything at the NBA level as a player or as a coach. It would be interesting to hear Ham's candid thoughts about the Lakers, and about Redick, but Ham is too busy helping the Bucks improve to waste much time pondering the overhyped and underperforming Lakers.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:47 AM

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