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Friday, May 31, 2024

Doncic and Irving Dominate as Mavericks Humiliate Timberwolves to Advance to the NBA Finals

The Dallas Mavericks' one-two punch of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving delivered an early knockout blow to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and each finished with a game-high 36 points in Dallas' 124-103 win. The Mavericks closed out the Timberwolves in five games, clinching the series on the road and setting up an NBA Finals matchup with the Boston Celtics. Doncic shot 14-22 from the field, led Dallas with 10 rebounds, and tied Irving for team-high honors with five assists. Doncic earned the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP. Stephen Curry won the inaugural Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP in 2022, and Nikola Jokic won the 2023 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP. Irving shot 14-27 from the field while also compiling five assists and four rebounds.

For much of this series, Minnesota's supporting cast played well enough while their two stars--Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns--delivered subpar performances. In this game, Edwards and Towns played well while their teammates disappeared. Edwards scored 28 points on 10-18 field goal shooting while grabbing nine rebounds and passing for a game-high six assists. Towns had 28 points on 9-20 field goal shooting while snaring a game-high 12 rebounds and not being whistled for a single foul after spending much of this series committing stupid fouls. Rudy Gobert had a quiet game (nine points, five rebounds, no blocked shots). No other Minnesota player had more than eight points or more than four rebounds. The usually steady Mike Conley scored seven points in just 21 minutes as he battled a recurring calf strain.

For a substantial portion of this game, the only suspense was whether the Timberwolves would outscore Doncic and Irving; in the first quarter, Doncic outscored the Timberwolves by himself, blistering the nets for 20 points on 8-11 field goal shooting while the Timberwolves could only muster 19 points on 8-26 (.308) field goal shooting. Dallas led 35-19, and if you listened closely you would have sworn that you heard someone say, "1, 2, 3, Cancun." The Timberwolves' body language screamed, "We would rather be anywhere else other than here trying to compete."

In the second quarter, Doncic seemingly said "Tag, you're it" to Irving, and Irving responded with 15 points on 5-5 field goal shooting.

Here are the first half scoring totals:

Doncic/Irving: 44 points on 17-27 field goal shooting.

Minnesota: 40 points on 15-44 field goal shooting.

Overall, Dallas led 69-44. "This is an embarrassing first half performance," TNT's Stan Van Gundy declared as the Minnesota crowd booed their listless Timberwolves.

During TNT's halftime show, Charles Barkley called out unnamed people on other networks who praised Minnesota's game four adjustments. "Adjust that," Barkley declared. Barkley is right that so-called adjustments are overrated by people who do not understand how to watch/analyze basketball, and I have made this point for years; in my recap of game two of the 2021 NBA Finals, I discussed at length ESPN's fascination with mythical adjustments:

Many of ESPN's talking heads have been obsessed for years with "in game adjustments" but Jeff Van Gundy is one of the few ESPN commentators who downplays such talk, perhaps because he is the only current ESPN commentator who has actually coached in the NBA Finals. During the 2010 NBA Finals, Van Gundy explained that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." During last night's telecast, Van Gundy made similar points, and after the game he mentioned that NBA games are often decided by one or two key plays, or simply by shots made/missed, and that there are not adjustments that can change those things.

Bill Russell refuted the in game adjustment nonsense years ago, cautioning, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make" and explaining, "When I played, when we had to make adjustments we would adjust not to what we did wrong but we would try to get back to what we did right and do that. That is the only way you can take control of the game," to which I added, "The idea that a coach can come up with something completely new between games--let alone during a 15 minute halftime break--is absurd and that is why San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich gives snarky answers when media members ask him stupid questions about what kind of adjustments he is going to make."

Unfortunately, many NBA commentators do not understand what they are watching, and are incapable of coming up with anything other than declaring that a team lost because that team's coach did not make the right adjustments. Stephen A. Smith repeats this tired refrain after almost every game, not realizing that his nickname is "Screamin' A", not "Strategy A" (though "Strategy F" would be an accurate assessment of what passes for analysis by him).

Perhaps when someone is paid millions of dollars per year to pose as an expert about something for which he does not have anything approaching expert level understanding there is pressure--self-imposed and/or from the bosses who sign those checks--to make bold statements and assertions.

The Timberwolves won game four because their stars outplayed the Mavericks' stars, and because overall Minnesota played with a very high energy level. The Mavericks routed the Timberwolves in game five because the Mavericks' stars outplayed the Timberwolves' stars, and because overall Minnesota played with a very low energy level. After game four, I wrote, "Game five will be very interesting, because the Timberwolves will show if they are satisfied just to avoid being swept, or if they are excited about the opportunity to win at home and put the pressure on the Mavericks to win game six in Dallas to avoid game seven in Minnesota."

The Timberwolves were quite content to just avoid being swept. Cue Keith Olbermann's catchphrase for such games: "Get a roll of stamps and mail it in." At some point in this series, the Timberwolves either decided that they could not beat the Mavericks four times or that it would take more effort to do so than they were willing to expend. That is not meant to take anything away from how well Dallas played, and how well Jason Kidd is coaching the Mavericks; the point is that the first four games of this series were close because these teams are evenly matched, while the fifth game was a blowout because Minnesota had checked out mentally and tapped out physically.

Doncic and Irving "only" combined for 18 third quarter points, so after 36 minutes the Timberwolves had outscored Dallas' dynamic duo 73-64--but the full game score was 97-73, Dallas.

The fourth quarter was, to borrow Marv Albert's famous description, "Extensive garbage time."

Although this game was not decided by "adjustments," it should be emphasized that Jason Kidd has done an excellent job coaching Dallas. His two star players respect him greatly--as they should--and Kidd shows his respect for them by not telling them what to do but simply noting what he would do if he were still playing. Kidd's court vision and basketball IQ are off the charts, and it is evident that Doncic and Kidd have both responded well to his patient guidance not only in terms of offensive decision making but also in terms of more sustained effort defensively.

The Irving redemption narrative is a popular talking point--as if playing basketball proficiently absolves Irving from his unrepentant antisemitism--but Doncic is not new to blowing out higher seeded opponents in closeout games: in 2022, Doncic led the Mavericks to a 123-90 rout over the number one seeded Phoenix Suns, and early in the second half of that game Doncic had outscored Phoenix 30-29 by himself, foreshadowing the treatment that he just gave to the Timberwolves. Doncic is like a mini Nikola Jokic: he plays at his own pace, he is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer, and he uses strength and guile to make up for a lack of blazing speed. Irving provides wonderful complementary scoring and playmaking, but Doncic runs the show and sets the tone.

The NBA Finals start next Thursday, so there will be plenty of time to analyze Boston versus Dallas (and plenty of time for ESPN's "experts" to talk about the "adjustments" that each team should make). Many media members will hype up Irving's return to Boston and Kristaps Porzingis' return to Dallas, but the most significant story here is the top of the marquee showdown between Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum: which superstar and perennial MVP candidate will win his first NBA title?

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:28 AM

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Wednesday, May 29, 2024

Edwards and Towns Outduel Doncic and Irving as Timberwolves Avoid Being Swept

I enjoy analyzing complex basketball strategies, but--as Charles Barkley succinctly put it during TNT's Western Conference Finals game four telecast--sometimes basketball is a simple sport: if your team's stars outplay the other team's stars then your team has a great chance to win. That simple story explained what happened in the Minnesota Timberwolves' 105-100 win versus the Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns outplayed Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Edwards scored a game-high 29 points on 11-25 field goal shooting, and he led the Timberwolves in both rebounds (10) and assists (nine). Towns scored a series-high 25 points on 9-13 field goal shooting, including 4-5 from three point range. Towns was far from perfect--he fouled out in just 30 minutes of playing time as he still has not cured his habit of committing stupid fouls, and he grabbed just five rebounds--but the good outweighed the bad: he shot efficiently from the field, he attacked the paint more often than he had in recent games, he was both more accurate and more judicious on this three point attempts, and he posted his highest scoring total in his last nine playoff games. Mike Conley was steady as always (14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting along with seven assists and no turnovers in 34 minutes), and Rudy Gobert scored 13 points while tying Edwards for team-high honors with 10 rebounds. 

Doncic posted his league-leading sixth triple double in the 2024 playoffs (28 points, game-high 15 rebounds, game-high 10 assists), but he shot just 7-21 from the field, had a game-worst -13 plus/minus number, and shot 1-5 from the field in the fourth quarter with the outcome up for grabs. Irving scored 16 points on 6-18 field goal shooting while dishing for four assists but amassing a team-high four turnovers. Dallas keenly felt the absence of Dereck Lively II, an active and energetic center who suffered a neck injury in game three of this series. Minnesota outrebounded Dallas 40-38 and outscored Dallas in the paint 46-36. 

Facing not just elimination but the humiliation of being swept, Minnesota stormed out to a 24-12 first quarter lead, but Dallas trimmed that margin to 27-20 by the end of the first quarter and then went ahead by three points in the second quarter before settling for a 49-49 halftime tie.

Minnesota won the third quarter 29-24 as Towns scored 10 points on 4-4 field goal shooting after scoring just five first half points. Minnesota enjoyed a fourth quarter lead in each of the first three games of this series only to fall apart down the stretch, but in this game Towns (10 points), Gobert (eight points), and Edwards (six points) dominated the final stanza. Dallas countered with balanced but inefficient fourth quarter scoring, matching Minnesota with 27 points but shooting just .435 from the field while Minnesota shot .526 from the field.

Game five will be very interesting, because the Timberwolves will show if they are satisfied just to avoid being swept, or if they are excited about the opportunity to win at home and put the pressure on the Mavericks to win game six in Dallas to avoid game seven in Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bigger and deeper than the Mavericks, but that did not matter in the first three games because of how much Doncic and Irving outplayed Edwards and Towns. The Timberwolves are capable of replicating in game five at home the effort level and efficiency that they displayed in game four on the road.

What struck me most about this game, though, is the pregame commentary about Kyrie Irving. Many media members are pushing the Kyrie Irving redemption narrative, but Barkley is one of the few media members who has the courage to speak the truth about Irving. Barkley declared that many of Irving's problems were "self inflicted," noting specifically, "You can't say antisemitic stuff." Barkley concluded that Irving deserved both the criticism he received and the suspension handed down by the Brooklyn Nets in 2022 in response to Irving's unrepentant antisemitism. It is very disappointing that Ernie Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, and Kenny Smith--who rightly do not hesitate to speak out about a host of social issues--remained silent about Irving's antisemitism, particularly at a time when both antisemitic vitriol and antisemitic violence are at unprecedented levels. In their initial response to Irving's unrepentant antisemitism, Johnson and the TNT studio crew did better, with the exception of Smith, who has consistently been off target about this issue.

Some points that I made in my November 4, 2022 article about Irving being suspended are worth repeating and emphasizing:

I know better than to try to persuade people who are willfully blind to the truth, but when thinking about who has power, what are the limits of free speech, and what is the nature of objective historical truth, it is interesting to keep in mind a few facts that I have mentioned in my previous articles about Irving:

1) Irving has more social media followers than the Jewish population of the world. Irving has over 20 million followers, while there are fewer than 15 million Jews in a world that has a population of nearly 8 billion people. When Irving boasts that he has an "army" supporting him, that is not an exaggeration. He is far from powerless both in terms of his personal, generational wealth, and in terms of the influence that he wields. If each of his followers spreads his messages to just five more people, Irving potentially reaches 100 million people every time he makes a social media post.

The Jewish people are so powerful that less than 80 years ago a third of their population was massacred in Europe while the Jewish people were unable to get immigration quotas lifted in any major Western country, including America.

2) No one has challenged Irving's free speech right to post whatever he wants to post. The First Amendment protects against government restriction of a citizen's free speech rights--but just like Irving has a right to say what he wants to say, other people have a right to respond to him, to question him, and to decide to not employ him or do business with him.

3) I have seen some people assert that the film that Irving promoted speaks the truth, and I have seen other people say some version of "everyone has a right to speak his truth." 

Regarding the first sentiment, the movie that Irving promoted asserts that the Holocaust never happened, that Jews controlled the trans-Atlantic slave trade, and that Jews worship Satan. Those statements are all demonstrably false. This would be equivalent to a white supremacist stating that slavery never happened, that Black people are responsible for harming white people on a massive scale, and that Black people worship Satan. If you support Irving's promotion of antisemitic falsehoods, then you have no standing to challenge white supremacists who state that they are not attacking Black people but rather defending white people, and you definitely need to stop talking about so-called "micro-aggressions." To be clear, I find both white supremacy and Holocaust denial to be offensive; I condemn both. I just don't want to hear about "micro-aggressions" from people who endorse "macro-aggressions" that contradict historical truth and contribute to a climate in which antisemitic violence is soaring to unprecedented levels.

Regarding the second sentiment, this notion that there is not an objective truth but that each person has his or her own "truth" is precisely what George Orwell warned about in his classic dystopian novel 1984. If words lose their objective meaning and if history can be whatever each person believes it to be then we have no shared past and no shared future because there are no longer standards for what is right, what is wrong, what is true, and what is false. There are far too many people in our society who would love to take our educational system in that direction. The Soviet Union tried it, China is doing it now, Cuba is doing it now, and we have seen--without fail--that every nation that goes down this path ends up persecuting its own people and terrorizing its neighbors.

To anyone who suggests that the above commentary does not belong in a game recap, my response is that Irving's on court revival and his off court issues are two separate matters, but too many people are acting as if Irving's willingness to be a better teammate has some connection with the abhorrent views that he promoted and refused to disavow--and as long as that confusion is being propagated and as long as even otherwise standup people like Ernie Johnson are silent I will speak loudly to confront the confusion and the silence. 

It is demonstrably true that Irving had a negative impact on team chemistry with multiple teams prior to being acquired by Dallas last season. He has not been in Dallas very long, but up to this point it appears like he has become a better teammate and--for the first time in his career--is demonstrating leadership qualities. Good for him as a basketball player--but what Irving says, does, and stands for away from the basketball court is far more important, and I will conclude by repeating the key point that I made two years ago when Irving promoted antisemitic tropes, and that I repeated in this article, because the truth about this simply cannot be stated too many times:

If you support Irving's promotion of antisemitic falsehoods, then you have no standing to challenge white supremacists who state that they are not attacking Black people but rather defending white people, and you definitely need to stop talking about so-called "micro-aggressions." 

During yesterday's pregame show, Kenny Smith made the bizarre statement that he urged Stephen A. Smith to stop criticizing Irving because they are all from the same neighborhood. Would Smith apply that same reasoning to preclude white people from criticizing racists who come from their neighborhoods? The normalization of antisemitism is frightening, and portends doom for our society, because any society that targets the weakest groups has lost its moral bearings.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 PM

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Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Celtics Sweep Pacers to Earn Second NBA Finals Appearance in Three Years

The Boston Celtics defeated the Indiana Pacers 105-102 to sweep the Eastern Conference Finals and return to the NBA Finals for the second time in three years. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 29 points on 11-22 field goal shooting, and his overall excellence during this series earned him the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP. His teammate Jayson Tatum won the inaugural Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP in 2022, and Jimmy Butler received the honor last year. Tatum was an MVP candidate in this series as well, and he had 26 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists in the series-clincher. As usual, Jrue Holiday (17 points, nine rebounds) and Derrick White (16 points, four rebounds, four assists, five steals) made strong contributions at both ends of the court. White's three pointer with 45 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter proved to be the game-winning shot and the final points in the series. The Celtics are playing so well that it is easy to forget that they are missing one of their top players, injured former All-Star Kristaps Porzingis.

Playing without injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton for the second straight game, the Pacers fought until the end. Andrew Nembhard posted Halibuton-like numbers, leading the team in scoring (24 points) and assists (game-high 10). Pascal Siakam added 19 points and a team-high 10 rebounds, and T.J. McConnell added 15 points off of the bench, but the Pacers needed more than eight points and four rebounds from Myles Turner.

The Celtics led 58-57 at halftime, but fell behind by as many as six points in the third quarter, and trailed 83-80 heading into the final stanza. After Nembhard's free throw pushed the margin to nine (94-85) at the 8:57 mark of the fourth quarter, it looked for a moment like the Pacers might extend the series, but the Celtics chipped away until White drilled the game-winner on a drive and kick by Brown. Three of the four games in this series were close at the end, but the Celtics proved their superiority by winning all three of those games.

It is easy to knock the Celtics for a variety of real and imagined reasons--and people will continue to do so at least until the Celtics win an NBA championship--but they have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in the past eight seasons, including each of the past three, and they are now in the NBA Finals for the second time in there years. Here is the list of teams that have accomplished those feats since the Chicago Bulls' 1998 "Last Dance":

1) Detroit Pistons (reached Eastern Conference Finals 2003-08, reached NBA Finals 2004-05)

2) Golden State Warriors (reached Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals 2015-19, 22)

Yes, the Pistons capped off their run by winning the 2004 NBA championship, and the Warriors won NBA championships in 2015, 2017-18, and 2022--but does the failure (thus far) to win an NBA championship render all of the Celtics' other winning irrelevant? The Celtics can make that question moot by winning the NBA championship in the next few weeks, but I would argue that even if they fall short they have still been one of the most successful NBA teams of the past two decades. There are many teams that have received more hype while accomplishing a lot less. The Tatum-Brown duo has accomplished a lot more than most of the various "super teams" that have been built and then imploded in the past decade or so.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:23 AM

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Monday, May 27, 2024

Reflections on Bill Walton's Legacy

The global basketball community is mourning the passing of Bill Walton, who died this morning at the age of 71 after a long battle with cancer. Despite being plagued by injuries, Walton is one of the most accomplished and decorated players in basketball history. He led UCLA to undefeated national championship seasons in 1972 and 1973 before losing to David Thompson's North Carolina State squad in the 1974 national semifinals. Walton was honored as the Naismith College Player of the Year in all three of his varsity seasons (1972-74), and he was the Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA Tournament in 1973 and 1974. In UCLA's 87-66 championship game win versus Memphis State in 1973, Walton scored 44 points on 21-22 field goal shooting while also grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds. That is perhaps the greatest single game performance in college basketball history, and Walton is on the short list of the greatest college basketball players ever, along with Bill Russell and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (known as Lew Alcindor during his college career). Walton admired UCLA Coach John Wooden, and often quoted Wooden's sayings, such as "Failing to prepare is preparing to fail" (which originated with Ben Franklin), and "Never mistake activity with achievement."

Walton played just 468 regular season games during an NBA career spanning 1975-88, but he earned the 1977 NBA Finals MVP, the 1978 regular season MVP, and the 1986 Sixth Man Award. Walton's 1977 Portland Trail Blazers are the youngest championship team in NBA history, and the Trail Blazers started 50-10 the next season before Walton suffered a serious foot injury; with a healthy Walton, that squad could have been contending for NBA titles into the 1980s. After retiring as a player in 1988, Walton had a long career as a basketball commentator on TV, overcoming a stuttering problem to become an Emmy Award winner and one of the sport's most beloved characters.

Walton always focused on team success more than individual honors, so the twin highlights of his NBA career were the championships he won in 1977 as a dominant player and in 1986 as a sixth man for a powerful Boston team featuring fellow Hall of Famers Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish, and Dennis Johnson. In between those two peaks, Walton spent nearly a decade in basketball wilderness but he refused to give up his belief that he could reach the mountaintop again.

Portland trailed Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers 2-0 in the 1977 NBA Finals before reeling off four straight wins. In the decisive sixth game, Walton and Erving had a showdown for the ages: Erving poured in 40 points on 17-29 field goal shooting while dishing for eight assists and grabbing six rebounds, but Walton led the Trail Blazers to a 109-107 win with 20 points, 23 rebounds, seven assists, and eight blocked shots. Walton averaged 18.5 ppg, 19.0 rpg, 5.2 apg, and 3.7 bpg during the 1977 NBA Finals. 

Walton and Erving are both members of the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class of 1993. They participated in a memorable Legends Roundtable with Bill Russell and Bob Lanier in 2011. I met all four of those legends, and I interviewed Erving and Lanier. Russell is the greatest winner in North American team sports history, while Erving, Lanier, and Walton were at the height of their powers when I first learned to love basketball as a child. It is sobering that Erving is the only one of those four who is still living. 

Erving posted a heartfelt tribute to his friend and on-court rival:

After the 1977 championship season, Walton played in just two more playoff games with Portland before leaving the team acrimoniously in 1979 as a result of how the franchise handled his injuries. David Halberstam memorably told the story of Portland's championship season and the sad aftermath in his classic book The Breaks of the Game

Walton averaged 11.9 ppg and 9.0 rpg in part-time duty with the Clippers from 1979-85, first in his hometown San Diego, and then in Los Angeles after the team moved. Walton enjoyed the healthiest season of his career in 1985-86 as the first player off of the bench for one of the greatest NBA teams ever, the 67-15 Boston Celtics that cruised to the championship with a 15-3 playoff run. He averaged 7.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 1.3 bpg while shooting .562 from the field in 80 games. That was Walton's last hurrah, as injuries limited him to 10 regular season games in 1986-87, and spot duty in 12 playoff games as the Celtics lost to the L.A. Lakers in the 1987 NBA Finals. Walton missed the entire 1987-88 season due to injuries before officially announcing his retirement. 

Walton was an elite rebounder, passer, and defensive player. He was an efficient scorer who had a .521 career field goal percentage. Walton was selected to both the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List and the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team.

As tributes pour in for Walton from teammates, opponents, and fans, it is evident that he will be remembered not only for his basketball greatness, but for the impact he had on the many lives that he touched.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 PM

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Doncic, Irving Each Score 33 Points as Dallas Beats Minnesota 116-107 to Take a 3-0 Lead

Luka Doncic scored 33 points on 10-20 field goal shooting and Kyrie Irving scored 33 points on 12-20 field goal shooting as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 116-107. The Mavericks lead the Western Conference Finals 3-0, and can complete a sweep with a home win on Tuesday night. P.J. Washington added 16 points and a team-high eight rebounds. Derrick Jones Jr. scored 11 points and a had a game-best +15 plus/minus number. Dereck Lively II scored six points on 3-3 field goal shooting in just nine minutes before exiting the game for good after taking an inadvertent blow to the head from Karl-Anthony Towns.

Anthony Edwards had his best game of the series with 26 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists but the player prematurely touted as the next Michael Jordan was the game's sixth leading scorer in the fourth quarter (four points) and that just is not good enough--nor is it good enough for him to be the third best player (behind Doncic and Irving) in this series. When was Jordan ever the third best player in any playoff series? Mike Conley (16 points, four assists, just one turnover) and Naz Reid (14 points ) once again did their jobs, but Karl-Anthony Towns scored 14 points on 5-18 field goal shooting, including 0-8 from three point range. Rudy Gobert had nine points on 4-4 field goal shooting and six rebounds in 28 minutes. The people blaming Gobert for Minnesota's losses have yet to explain how it is his fault that Towns is misfiring from three point range and refusing to use his size effectively in the paint.

In the fourth quarter with the game and the series on the line, Dallas outscored Minnesota 29-20. In those decisive 12 minutes, Dallas shot .733 from the field and held Minnesota to .450 field goal shooting, but what should be even more disturbing to Minnesota than those numbers is that Minnesota jacked up eight three pointers in the final stanza and made just one. Minnesota made the move that Draymond Green has been screaming about--playing Gobert just 2:47 in the final 12 minutes--and the Timberwolves had not just their worst quarter of the game but their worst quarter of the series.

I picked Minnesota to win this series because I expected their big men to dominate the paint while Edwards played Doncic to a draw. I also thought that Minnesota's rangy wing defenders could do a reasonable job containing Irving. Minnesota has failed to meet all three of those expectations, and that is why they trail 3-0. I don't think that it is premature for me to admit that I was wrong about this series. Although the three games have been decided by a total of 13 points, the same patterns have happened in each game, and at this point there is no reason to think that those patterns will change: Minnesota is not playing efficient or intelligent offense, Doncic is outplaying Edwards by a large margin, and Irving is having his way with anyone who tries to guard him. 

In my previous game recaps from this series, I explained why the anti-Gobert narrative being trumpeted by Draymond Green is nonsense so I will not repeat that analysis here other than to emphasize again that throughout the playoffs and in this series the number show that the Timberwolves are better when Gobert is on the court than when he is on the bench. All other things being equal or close to equal, NBA playoff series are often decided by the star matchups--even if the stars are not going head to head on every possession--and this series is being decided by that fact that Doncic and Irving are outplaying Edwards and Towns by a large margin.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:24 AM

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Sunday, May 26, 2024

Celtics Rally From 18 Point Deficit to Put Pacers in 3-0 Hole

Jrue Holiday--who was so sick earlier in the day that he missed shootaround--scored Boston's last five points in the final 38.9 seconds as the Celtics recovered from an 18 point deficit to beat the Indiana Pacers 114-111 and take a 3-0 Eastern Conference Finals lead. Holiday finished with 14 points, nine rebounds, three assists and three steals, but Boston's biggest star overall was Jayson Tatum, who had a game-high 36 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and a team-high eight assists. Jaylen Brown had another strong performance (24 points on 10-18 field goal shooting), and soon to be 38 year old Al Horford had his second flashback performance in the past four games with 23 points, five rebounds, and three blocked shots. Horford shot 8-14 from the field, including 7-12 from three point range. Derrick White added 13 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and three steals as all five Boston starters scored at least 13 points. Boston's bench is depleted with Horford taking the starting spot of the injured Kristaps Porzingis, but Boston still has the league's best starting five.

Andrew Nembhard led the Pacers in scoring (32 points) and assists (nine). T.J. McConnell had an excellent game off of the bench (23 points, nine rebounds, six assists and just one turnover in 29 minutes). Myles Turner added 22 points while tying Tatum for game-high rebounding honors with 10. Pascal Siakam scored 22 points and dished for six assists. That quartet played very well, but the other Pacers combined to score just 12 points on 6-19 (.316) field goal shooting. The Pacers' ball movement, player movement, shooting, and passing were impeccable for the first two and a half quarters, but they did not maintain that high level execution in the game's final 18 minutes.

When Indiana's All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton was sidelined with a hamstring injury during Boston's 126-110 game two win, it looked as if Boston would have an easy path to two more victories to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals--and Boston seemed to confirm that view by storming to a 24-15 first quarter lead, but then Indiana outscored Boston 49-22 to take a 64-46 second quarter lead. The Pacers led 69-57 at halftime, shooting .636 from the field in a performance reminiscent of their sizzling shooting in their game seven win versus the New York Knicks.

It is easy to criticize the Celtics for taking things for granted and losing focus, but the Pacers should also get credit; they have several very talented players other than Haliburton, and those players played very well, but they just could not quite sustain that level for the entire game, particularly after the Celtics' defensive energy and intensity went up a notch down the stretch in the third quarter. The Pacers led 84-66 at the 6:04 mark of the third quarter, but the Celtics cut that lead in half and entered the fourth quarter trailing 90-81. 

The Pacers never regained a double digit lead, and the Celtics chipped away during the final stanza, culminating in Holiday's two game-winning plays; his driving basket/three point play gave the Celtics their first lead (112-111) since the opening moments of the second quarter. After the teams exchanged misses, Holiday stole the ball from Nembhard and made two free throws to push the Celtics' advantage to 114-111. The Pacers called a timeout after Holiday's second free throw, and they ran an interesting inbounds play with 1.7 second left: four Pacers lined up in the backcourt like NFL wide receivers, and then they ran "crossing patterns" as they sprinted past midcourt, freeing Nesmith to take a corner three pointer; it is difficult to get off a quality shot against a good defensive team when you need a three pointer to tie with less than two seconds left, but the Pacers executed that situation as well as possible. As the saying goes, it is a make or miss league, and Nesmith missed.

Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle vowed after the game that the Pacers will go after the Celtics with even more intensity in game four--but the reality is that no NBA team has ever won a playoff series after trailing 3-0, and it is difficult to see the Pacers making such history under any circumstances, let alone without Haliburton.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:23 AM

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